19:40 You make a good point that it went both ways. In 1936 the CCP adopted a policy that the main island of Taiwan should be an independent nation. This was espoused by Mao and Chou En Lai in interviews. After WWII the CCP signed a treaty with the Soviets saying this. (I have not seen it, sure would like to.) Also in the Peace with Japan, keeping with Mao's language, Korea and Taiwan were not assigned to any other power. So I think there is a nuance here. Initially Mao did not want Taiwan - he wanted the Nationalists, and the nationalists were in Taiwan. They were calling them war criminals and wanted them dead, though as I recall reading, he did back off those statements somewhat later. It looks like about 600,000 Nationalists had gone to the main island of Taiwan, and the Americans had made CKS their military governor, so initially it looked like the US was helping CKS turn the Taiwanese into his private army so as to re-invade. Hence it was quite reasonable he wanted to stop that. When the US prevented CKS from invading, that might well be why things cooled off. Over the prior 70 years, this issue has taken on a life of its own, and many people, including policy makers, some to have forgotten the original motivations.
(1) Headphones (not speakers). That way, we don't delayed squaks coming back through Tom's microphone. (2) Go into Windows Control Panel and selectively disable event audio -- that will get rid of the random "chimes"
36:00 It was Truman who said, "fundamentally, it is merely a bigger bomb." Yeah it is a live interview excuse me. ... I couldn't find such an expression from Eisenhower.
28:20 I was a duck and cover* kid. To think that the only security our government could give us was living inside a bubble of existential terror. You'd think that our best and brightest could come up with better means. * "Remember to hide under your desks kids. It makes the cleanup so much easier."
13:20 Satellite photos support what you are saying about it heating up again, they show landing craft being build in large numbers in Ximen. These can only have one purpose.
7:50 Tom brings up a really good point about the change in policy with the Korean War, though did the change not start with the Soviet atomic bomb? Or even earlier with the Soviet entry into Eastern Europe and the realization that "they were not our friends"? Anyway from "The Wise Men" that the State Department was slow to change their stance, and actually never fully did relative to other parts of the US government.
Great content. Liked and shared under the caveat: Essential History.. 27:00 Honest Johns in Turkey caused the Cuban Missile Crisis. I remember what a revelation that was for me. I've only known about it for the last ten years. That's the power of national narrative. It led me to parody Clausewitz. "Geopolitics: war by other means."
17:50 Don't know about the microchips. If you look at the history of chip fabs, they come and go. In addition the equipment used is Dutch, and the Dutch are equipping a couple of other fabs, including in another city known for fabs, Dresden. The strategic importance of chips is no secret, and the industry is responding.
Appreciate the detailed breakdown! I have a quick question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (mistake turkey blossom warfare blade until bachelor fall squeeze today flee guitar). How can I transfer them to Binance?
6:00 thank you for bringing up that the US was trying to prevent CKS from trying to re-enter China. This is also not mentioned often enough. The US had withdrawn money that had been earmarked for development in China after WWII, which CKS was using in his civil war effort, and this might have been what caused his supply lines to collapse, and then the general collapse of his forces in China. Can you talk more about that? (That was before Cold War, and attitudes at the State Department were to not get involved in internal Chinese affairs.)
19:00 Their thinking is "It has always been Chinese." I hear a lot of Americans say this. The Chinese I've talked to have been more realistic in their portrayal. The main island of Taiwan has never been controlled by China. In all of history there is only a 19 year old period where China claimed the main island, and that was in the lead up to the Treaty of Shimonoseki. The American diplomat Le Gendre wrote a book explaining why those claims were not valid, including maps an explanations. So for anyone who would say differently, please name the years for which you think China controlled the main island of Taiwan because I can't find such a time.
20:00 "The Taiwanese have no great aspiration to take China." Speaking from some experience in speaking with Taiwanese of various stripes, I can say the following. First off there is a great deal of misunderstanding, particularly among Americans, the vast majority of Taiwanese are not families of the Nationalists. Many older people speak Japanese. Many come from families that have their roots in Taiwan. There are many who came from other places than China. The Nationalists refugees are now third generation, and many have never stepped foot in China. Ironically they talk of China like Irish Americans talk of Ireland, or get their Irish up. There is a concerted (dis)information campaign on the island to turn opinion against Americans. In just two visits, now and ten years ago, there is a noticeable change. There are about a million Taiwanese working in China, and they are going back and fourth. In high irony what remains of the Nationalist party (the KMT) favors strong ties with China and they think that a war would not be worth the suffering and cost of it. What most people want is the status quo, and after living with the threats of invasion for generations, they are jaded by them, and don't take them into account much. And yeah, so no one has any inkling of taking over China, and the vast majority never did. However, there is big contrast with the Chinese people, who most seem to believe that the Taiwanese want to invade China and that there is a problem that needs to be taken care of.
18:10. Yes, yes, their pride is hurt in a sense. They are passionate people. IMHO The Century of Humiliation has gone to far. The US also had an opium problem on the West Coast in that period. Opium was being sold before the British and French got into it, and even then they were suppliers, but as I understand it, not the distributors nor the retailers - they were Chinese. The Chinese government itself had problems that can not be blamed on the West, rather it was a symptom. Famously the Chinese people themselves rose up and overthrew that Monarchy and replaced it with a Republic. Should they not take pride in that? In addition all those people "treated poorly" are long gone. The same can not be said today. This idea of reparations for the past is debatable to say the least - rather it should be.
14:30 Yes, and Xi was more specific. First they have added to the Chinese Constitution, which is updated every 5 years or so, that Taiwan is "sacred ancient terrirtory" (I assume they are referring to some of the minor islands, as the main island has never been fully controlled by the Chinese>) I believe what Xi said is that the Taiwanese have until 2027 to decide that they want to become Chinese. Ah Ok, you have that in there ... I should let it play longer before commenting. Excuse me.
It should be mentioned that there were 6 to 7 million Taiwanese (not Chinese) living in Taiwan before the Chinese Nationalist refugees fled there. This is often neglected in presentations and it gives the viewers the incorrect impression that there were no Taiwanese. When the Nationalists arrived on the main island, locals complained, and 10k were killed in the 228 incident, and what followed were decades of the White Terror, where tens of thousands of Taiwanese were jailed or disappeared for resisting. The US made CKS their military governor for the island, and he set to converting Taiwan into his new army. He ripped up and sold infrastructure to buy more weapons, he changed the language of education from Japanese to Chinese, and started teaching Taiwanese kids the history of China instead of that of their own heritage. (It is reminiscent of what the Prussians tried to do to Alsace and Lorraine after the Franco-Prussian war. Today it would be considered cultural genocide.)
Wanna know who else was a landpower? Rome. And who was hte seapower? Carthage? And guess who figured out to Copypasta boats? Roma. "Carthago delenda est!" We shall treat Russia just like Rome treated Carthage, and for very similar reasons. BUT Note! A landpower CAN turn into a seapower! Caesar Julius invaded Britain and Roma went on to conquer Britain.
19:40 You make a good point that it went both ways. In 1936 the CCP adopted a policy that the main island of Taiwan should be an independent nation. This was espoused by Mao and Chou En Lai in interviews. After WWII the CCP signed a treaty with the Soviets saying this. (I have not seen it, sure would like to.) Also in the Peace with Japan, keeping with Mao's language, Korea and Taiwan were not assigned to any other power. So I think there is a nuance here. Initially Mao did not want Taiwan - he wanted the Nationalists, and the nationalists were in Taiwan. They were calling them war criminals and wanted them dead, though as I recall reading, he did back off those statements somewhat later. It looks like about 600,000 Nationalists had gone to the main island of Taiwan, and the Americans had made CKS their military governor, so initially it looked like the US was helping CKS turn the Taiwanese into his private army so as to re-invade. Hence it was quite reasonable he wanted to stop that. When the US prevented CKS from invading, that might well be why things cooled off. Over the prior 70 years, this issue has taken on a life of its own, and many people, including policy makers, some to have forgotten the original motivations.
(1) Headphones (not speakers). That way, we don't delayed squaks coming back through Tom's microphone.
(2) Go into Windows Control Panel and selectively disable event audio -- that will get rid of the random "chimes"
36:00 It was Truman who said, "fundamentally, it is merely a bigger bomb." Yeah it is a live interview excuse me. ... I couldn't find such an expression from Eisenhower.
28:20 I was a duck and cover* kid. To think that the only security our government could give us was living inside a bubble of existential terror. You'd think that our best and brightest could come up with better means.
* "Remember to hide under your desks kids. It makes the cleanup so much easier."
13:20 Satellite photos support what you are saying about it heating up again, they show landing craft being build in large numbers in Ximen. These can only have one purpose.
7:50 Tom brings up a really good point about the change in policy with the Korean War, though did the change not start with the Soviet atomic bomb? Or even earlier with the Soviet entry into Eastern Europe and the realization that "they were not our friends"? Anyway from "The Wise Men" that the State Department was slow to change their stance, and actually never fully did relative to other parts of the US government.
Great content. Liked and shared under the caveat: Essential History..
27:00 Honest Johns in Turkey caused the Cuban Missile Crisis. I remember what a revelation that was for me. I've only known about it for the last ten years. That's the power of national narrative. It led me to parody Clausewitz. "Geopolitics: war by other means."
17:50 Don't know about the microchips. If you look at the history of chip fabs, they come and go. In addition the equipment used is Dutch, and the Dutch are equipping a couple of other fabs, including in another city known for fabs, Dresden. The strategic importance of chips is no secret, and the industry is responding.
Appreciate the detailed breakdown! I have a quick question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (mistake turkey blossom warfare blade until bachelor fall squeeze today flee guitar). How can I transfer them to Binance?
huh
6:00 thank you for bringing up that the US was trying to prevent CKS from trying to re-enter China. This is also not mentioned often enough. The US had withdrawn money that had been earmarked for development in China after WWII, which CKS was using in his civil war effort, and this might have been what caused his supply lines to collapse, and then the general collapse of his forces in China. Can you talk more about that? (That was before Cold War, and attitudes at the State Department were to not get involved in internal Chinese affairs.)
19:00 Their thinking is "It has always been Chinese." I hear a lot of Americans say this. The Chinese I've talked to have been more realistic in their portrayal. The main island of Taiwan has never been controlled by China. In all of history there is only a 19 year old period where China claimed the main island, and that was in the lead up to the Treaty of Shimonoseki. The American diplomat Le Gendre wrote a book explaining why those claims were not valid, including maps an explanations. So for anyone who would say differently, please name the years for which you think China controlled the main island of Taiwan because I can't find such a time.
20:00 "The Taiwanese have no great aspiration to take China." Speaking from some experience in speaking with Taiwanese of various stripes, I can say the following. First off there is a great deal of misunderstanding, particularly among Americans, the vast majority of Taiwanese are not families of the Nationalists. Many older people speak Japanese. Many come from families that have their roots in Taiwan. There are many who came from other places than China. The Nationalists refugees are now third generation, and many have never stepped foot in China. Ironically they talk of China like Irish Americans talk of Ireland, or get their Irish up. There is a concerted (dis)information campaign on the island to turn opinion against Americans. In just two visits, now and ten years ago, there is a noticeable change. There are about a million Taiwanese working in China, and they are going back and fourth. In high irony what remains of the Nationalist party (the KMT) favors strong ties with China and they think that a war would not be worth the suffering and cost of it. What most people want is the status quo, and after living with the threats of invasion for generations, they are jaded by them, and don't take them into account much. And yeah, so no one has any inkling of taking over China, and the vast majority never did.
However, there is big contrast with the Chinese people, who most seem to believe that the Taiwanese want to invade China and that there is a problem that needs to be taken care of.
Blockade seems a more likely PRC military approach for myriad reasons including world need for Taiwan exports and Taiwan's ability to feed itself.
18:10. Yes, yes, their pride is hurt in a sense. They are passionate people. IMHO The Century of Humiliation has gone to far. The US also had an opium problem on the West Coast in that period. Opium was being sold before the British and French got into it, and even then they were suppliers, but as I understand it, not the distributors nor the retailers - they were Chinese. The Chinese government itself had problems that can not be blamed on the West, rather it was a symptom. Famously the Chinese people themselves rose up and overthrew that Monarchy and replaced it with a Republic. Should they not take pride in that? In addition all those people "treated poorly" are long gone. The same can not be said today. This idea of reparations for the past is debatable to say the least - rather it should be.
14:30 Yes, and Xi was more specific. First they have added to the Chinese Constitution, which is updated every 5 years or so, that Taiwan is "sacred ancient terrirtory" (I assume they are referring to some of the minor islands, as the main island has never been fully controlled by the Chinese>) I believe what Xi said is that the Taiwanese have until 2027 to decide that they want to become Chinese. Ah Ok, you have that in there ... I should let it play longer before commenting. Excuse me.
It should be mentioned that there were 6 to 7 million Taiwanese (not Chinese) living in Taiwan before the Chinese Nationalist refugees fled there. This is often neglected in presentations and it gives the viewers the incorrect impression that there were no Taiwanese. When the Nationalists arrived on the main island, locals complained, and 10k were killed in the 228 incident, and what followed were decades of the White Terror, where tens of thousands of Taiwanese were jailed or disappeared for resisting.
The US made CKS their military governor for the island, and he set to converting Taiwan into his new army. He ripped up and sold infrastructure to buy more weapons, he changed the language of education from Japanese to Chinese, and started teaching Taiwanese kids the history of China instead of that of their own heritage. (It is reminiscent of what the Prussians tried to do to Alsace and Lorraine after the Franco-Prussian war. Today it would be considered cultural genocide.)
👍👍
Wanna know who else was a landpower? Rome. And who was hte seapower? Carthage? And guess who figured out to Copypasta boats?
Roma.
"Carthago delenda est!"
We shall treat Russia just like Rome treated Carthage, and for very similar reasons. BUT Note! A landpower CAN turn into a seapower! Caesar Julius invaded Britain and Roma went on to conquer Britain.