Hi Mark, Regarding the "New positions" sub-module in the Applied level I have a couple of ideas to make it more attractive: 1. Change the formatting to slides. The Excel doesn't look good visually 2. Show only new positions, not your current portfolio (or maybe show 1 per month only) 3. Each week focus on only 1 position. Me personally I'm interested in the thinking process, not the outcome e.g. why that strike? what if X scenario occurs? why invest now and not wait? What multiples you look at for X sector, etc....
Please can you still answer the market outlook questions in another video? It’s the only non-live place we can ask questions and know a video where you answer the questions. In a live, it’s possible you miss questions, we can’t dial in or ask questions and stay around for the answer, or it becomes a lot more difficult to go to a live and find the answer you’re looking for without video headers
Hi Mark, Regarding the concern aired by you about Positions and the valued+interest...all I can say for me this is the most important piece of your work, it is the final piece of your aggregated knowledge..even if you feel its not adding value due to numbers viewing, please know its gold...its your train of thought..managing loosers..adding to winners...gold dust really
1)can we know all about about a topic like "what drives oil prices " like are there finite things or infinite things(factors)? 2)someone asked a question,"what stocks etf should i be sticking with an account size of 2k", you said i would not go much outside the market ,,,what do you mean by that? 3)if a stock or trade goes according to your analysis will you say your analysis was 100 percent correct or on point ?
Is the relationship between the supply of reserves and the money supply 1:1? Fed sells bonds, M2 decreases, supply of reserves decrease. M2 decreasing may impact the economy, but supply of reserves decreasing won't impact FFR because reserves are ample. Is this the right way to think about the relationship between M2 and the supply of reserves?
I implore you not to phase this out....its the culmination of all your knowledge essentially...howyou put it to work...even left as is within the Applied Series...its a must for me...
Currently learning through your Applied Level and I have a few questions. (For context I am French but currently in Australia) Can I invest in the European markets using the options strategies you teach while in Australia and basically not be up late at night? If I invest long term, or have my risk management and exits planned out, do I need to be following the markets all day? Does a retail investor need to follow the market from beginning to finish? Can you successfully be a retail investor while working full time in M&A or PE? I haven't covered all the Applied Level content yet so I would like to know if there's any video about the fiscal aspect of being a retail investor? If not, would you consider adding a video about how to think about managing the tax aspect of portfolios (also if you're investing abroad)?
10:15 ADP is based only on ADP's clients. These are only private, without public/gov employment. It's usually revised in subsequent months.. For sure not a key figure
1)do you have a limit how many questions (SOMETHING YOU ARE COMFORTABLE WITH) one person can ask in youtube live Q&A and market outlook Q&A in a single session? 2)have you decided that you will do morning live q and a or not ?
Let's say E-mini sp500 futures is rising ahead of the opening bell, how do we interpret that when we often learn that there are no expectations in the futures price. Is e-mini sp500 simply using F = Se^rT? I'm trying to understand how what we learn in pricing and valuation of futures in CFA translates to an equity futures index such as E-Mini SP500 Futures. Have you thought of adding more "Top Down" Modules in the applied series? I feel like this along with understanding sectors is more important to becoming a better investor than financial modeling.
Hi Mark, could you elaborate on the effects that fraudulent accounting practices tend to have on public companies like the SMCI situation? Are the companies normally bought out after something like this happens since the sell off is so large? Or is there a way from SMCI to organically recover from this? Also, you mentioned you listened to the Joe Rogan episode with Trump... did you tune into the recent one with Elon? If so, did that change any opinions you have on him/Tesla?
Mark, you mentioned in the video that if TLT keeps dropping, you might "tap out". What do you reckon would be the best way to play that: simply closing out positions or selling ATM/ITM calls?
Hi Mark, what do you think about Bell's CAD ~7b acquisition of Ziply? I found myself bad at correctly interpreting things after reading through BCE investor relation presentation. For example the managements were aware of debt problem but they went ahead and spent money so this is bad. But then it expands into US market and transaction isn't closing till ~2025 so it's probably over reaction which means this might be an opportunity (plus you always say to determine if it's an event or trend). However, I do see a Scotia analyst said the deal is perplexing.
22:50 These RPP and Reserves numbers are getting really low... where do you get these Reserves? What's inside? Follow up question - if liquidity disappear from the system due to not enough mentioned reserves, equities will crash - you thing bonds (TLT) will too? Should rise because of flight to safety, but liquidity dry up all assets... hence I'm not sure. You predicted discussion about deficit... now what would you tell about relaunching bonds buying by the Fed? I can see the narrative - not enough liquidity in the system, China is selling bonds so we need to overcome this (especially if Trump is elected)... etc.
There is an FT article discussing the rise of buffered ETFs protecting investors from the first 10%-20% of loss. Could you comment on how ETF managers can achieve that return profile?
I tapped out on TLT on Friday, I've been selling covered calls to generate income so my basis is in the low 80s but the narrative thats being portrayed (although correct I just don't think its valid today) in the media that higher yields will be required to entice investors to hold US debt is just not worth fighting. I think its a buying opportunity for TLT if it continues but me personally think of it like Tesla, once that narrative takes hold its lunacy to fight it. Rational thought takes a back seat to momentum. Do you think the long end yields continuing to rise will continue or does it subside after the election?
Hi Mark, What do you think about investing in alternative assets/ for example investing in Blackstone. Could you do a video in the Applied series about this ?
Hi Mark, What is the reason for Fed stopping balance sheet run-off and even buying treasury in April/May? Why does Fed want to get rid off MBS? Thank you.
What do u think of Bell Canada acquisition of Ziply Fiber. Does not seem like a good move. All those sales and savings, not to reduce debt but just spend on this.
Wondering your personal take on a potential career chance from Finance to Tax Accounting. I am currently a Sr. Credit Analyst at a Regional bank in the US. Given the status of the banking industry over the past couple years there have been some layoffs to my Team at the Bank. Also with bank Mergers/Acquisitions I am wondering if this will lead to further bank consolidation of departments and lead to fewer jobs. I have taken the necessary classes (including Tax I and Tax II) to sit for my CPA (I am also a L2 CFA) and I think I understand Tax issues relatively well. Wondering if tax Accounting is a good industry to get into.
Yes, on the going live on election night. No, on eliminating the weekly Q&A. I find more value in the non-Live Q&A where you answer the comment box questions from the market outlook because you are able to write on the screen and go more in depth than the live Q&A where you’re limited to just talking and not being able to go deeper.
That is Mark' bet: he believes that ultimately the system cannot afford high yields and the Fed will be forced to QE/YCC the long-end of the curve down to the zero line. That is why he is long Duration. Basically, he believes that Fed > bond vigilantes.
Dr Meldrum, I try to watch the market updates every week and would love to watch more of your analyses and join your lives, but I am studying for CFA, working full time and interviewing for new jobs so my attendance here isn't consistent. I would join your lives more often and wanted to let you know when at least one of these lets up I'll be more active.
1)how to know i really know a concept or i really know something maybe about finance or any other stuff,,BECAUSE many times when time of testing comes or i hear others ,i feel i dont know it all but i thought i know it or i know a little bit \ 2)can we know any topic in finance or any other stuff completely like 100 % or its just impossible ?
Haven't heard you talk about AGNC in a while. It's trading around $9.32/share with a dividend yield around 15 percent at the time of this comment. Do you think it's a good buy here?
Maybe add as you reference the reason for taking each your trade plan...as pdf's so can. Be used to study...add more chart views or ibk views when discussing as opposed to just excel....but please do not let 4% viewership take away from the importance of this area...
I'm confused. If the concern is about the sheer amount of debt and how unsustainable it is, shouldn't that push yields down (I believe that was one or your arguments at some point) due to what higher rates would do to the economy over a prolonged period of time? Or are you arguing from a short-term perspective (i.e., 3 months)?
If debt continues to rise at this unsustainable cadence it put into question the viability of the US ability to pay that debt, thus higher premiums for holding that risk
"ADP is always wrong. I dont know we pay attention to it." Dude so stop paying attention to it, stop mentioning and showing it to us. Break the cycle Mark.
Hi Mark, what is your approach when dealing with futures? Is there a rule that you use to decide the liquidity to "cover" the margin? Regarding this topic, are you planning to make an applied futures series? Thank you and have a good day.
yes, look forward on the live event night.
Love the idea of election night live
Looking forward to your election night live. Mark.
Election night live sounds great!!
Live commentary sounds great
Election hour market commentary and live session with Prof. Meldrum gonna be amazing
Looking forward to it.
Hi Mark,
Regarding the "New positions" sub-module in the Applied level I have a couple of ideas to make it more attractive:
1. Change the formatting to slides. The Excel doesn't look good visually
2. Show only new positions, not your current portfolio (or maybe show 1 per month only)
3. Each week focus on only 1 position. Me personally I'm interested in the thinking process, not the outcome e.g. why that strike? what if X scenario occurs? why invest now and not wait? What multiples you look at for X sector, etc....
Election night live event? Absoultely!
Please can you still answer the market outlook questions in another video? It’s the only non-live place we can ask questions and know a video where you answer the questions. In a live, it’s possible you miss questions, we can’t dial in or ask questions and stay around for the answer, or it becomes a lot more difficult to go to a live and find the answer you’re looking for without video headers
Hi Mark, Regarding the concern aired by you about Positions and the valued+interest...all I can say for me this is the most important piece of your work, it is the final piece of your aggregated knowledge..even if you feel its not adding value due to numbers viewing, please know its gold...its your train of thought..managing loosers..adding to winners...gold dust really
Great outlook! Question: What is your take on Buffett’s selling and cash stock piling?
1)can we know all about about a topic like "what drives oil prices " like are there finite things or infinite things(factors)?
2)someone asked a question,"what stocks etf should i be sticking with an account size of 2k", you said i would not go much outside the market ,,,what do you mean by that?
3)if a stock or trade goes according to your analysis will you say your analysis was 100 percent correct or on point ?
Is the relationship between the supply of reserves and the money supply 1:1? Fed sells bonds, M2 decreases, supply of reserves decrease. M2 decreasing may impact the economy, but supply of reserves decreasing won't impact FFR because reserves are ample. Is this the right way to think about the relationship between M2 and the supply of reserves?
I implore you not to phase this out....its the culmination of all your knowledge essentially...howyou put it to work...even left as is within the Applied Series...its a must for me...
Currently learning through your Applied Level and I have a few questions. (For context I am French but currently in Australia)
Can I invest in the European markets using the options strategies you teach while in Australia and basically not be up late at night?
If I invest long term, or have my risk management and exits planned out, do I need to be following the markets all day?
Does a retail investor need to follow the market from beginning to finish?
Can you successfully be a retail investor while working full time in M&A or PE?
I haven't covered all the Applied Level content yet so I would like to know if there's any video about the fiscal aspect of being a retail investor?
If not, would you consider adding a video about how to think about managing the tax aspect of portfolios (also if you're investing abroad)?
10:15 ADP is based only on ADP's clients. These are only private, without public/gov employment. It's usually revised in subsequent months.. For sure not a key figure
Since the CFA curriculum is broad, which topic areas should I focus on to develop skills for bottom-up stock picking? Thanks.
1)do you have a limit how many questions (SOMETHING YOU ARE COMFORTABLE WITH) one person can ask in youtube live Q&A and market outlook Q&A in a single session?
2)have you decided that you will do morning live q and a or not ?
Let's say E-mini sp500 futures is rising ahead of the opening bell, how do we interpret that when we often learn that there are no expectations in the futures price. Is e-mini sp500 simply using F = Se^rT? I'm trying to understand how what we learn in pricing and valuation of futures in CFA translates to an equity futures index such as E-Mini SP500 Futures.
Have you thought of adding more "Top Down" Modules in the applied series? I feel like this along with understanding sectors is more important to becoming a better investor than financial modeling.
Yes I’d been keen to watch the live event!
Hi Mark, could you elaborate on the effects that fraudulent accounting practices tend to have on public companies like the SMCI situation? Are the companies normally bought out after something like this happens since the sell off is so large? Or is there a way from SMCI to organically recover from this?
Also, you mentioned you listened to the Joe Rogan episode with Trump... did you tune into the recent one with Elon? If so, did that change any opinions you have on him/Tesla?
Mark, you mentioned in the video that if TLT keeps dropping, you might "tap out". What do you reckon would be the best way to play that: simply closing out positions or selling ATM/ITM calls?
Hi Mark, what do you think about Bell's CAD ~7b acquisition of Ziply? I found myself bad at correctly interpreting things after reading through BCE investor relation presentation. For example the managements were aware of debt problem but they went ahead and spent money so this is bad. But then it expands into US market and transaction isn't closing till ~2025 so it's probably over reaction which means this might be an opportunity (plus you always say to determine if it's an event or trend). However, I do see a Scotia analyst said the deal is perplexing.
yes thats the best idea
Hi Mark, what do you think about Palantir. Will they be able to increase marings over the coming years? Where do you see the stock ?
22:50 These RPP and Reserves numbers are getting really low... where do you get these Reserves? What's inside? Follow up question - if liquidity disappear from the system due to not enough mentioned reserves, equities will crash - you thing bonds (TLT) will too? Should rise because of flight to safety, but liquidity dry up all assets... hence I'm not sure.
You predicted discussion about deficit... now what would you tell about relaunching bonds buying by the Fed? I can see the narrative - not enough liquidity in the system, China is selling bonds so we need to overcome this (especially if Trump is elected)... etc.
How could i play ZQ if I cannot trade futures due to job restrictions?
There is an FT article discussing the rise of buffered ETFs protecting investors from the first 10%-20% of loss. Could you comment on how ETF managers can achieve that return profile?
Election night live - just awesome!
Hi Dr. Mark, which software do you use to prepare your slides / notes (for writing on screen with a tablet)?
I tapped out on TLT on Friday, I've been selling covered calls to generate income so my basis is in the low 80s but the narrative thats being portrayed (although correct I just don't think its valid today) in the media that higher yields will be required to entice investors to hold US debt is just not worth fighting. I think its a buying opportunity for TLT if it continues but me personally think of it like Tesla, once that narrative takes hold its lunacy to fight it. Rational thought takes a back seat to momentum. Do you think the long end yields continuing to rise will continue or does it subside after the election?
Hi Mark, What do you think about investing in alternative assets/ for example investing in Blackstone. Could you do a video in the Applied series about this ?
I really feel this can be developed into the most beneficial section with time...
Hi Mark,
What is the reason for Fed stopping balance sheet run-off and even buying treasury in April/May?
Why does Fed want to get rid off MBS? Thank you.
What do u think of Bell Canada acquisition of Ziply Fiber. Does not seem like a good move. All those sales and savings, not to reduce debt but just spend on this.
Election night and Live Wednesday are all great decisions! Looking forward to it
Wondering your personal take on a potential career chance from Finance to Tax Accounting. I am currently a Sr. Credit Analyst at a Regional
bank in the US. Given the status of the banking industry over the past couple years there have been some layoffs to my Team at the Bank. Also with bank Mergers/Acquisitions I am wondering if this will lead to further bank consolidation of departments and lead to fewer jobs. I have taken the necessary classes (including Tax I and Tax II) to sit for my CPA (I am also a L2 CFA) and I think I understand Tax issues relatively well. Wondering if tax Accounting is a good industry to get into.
Will you attend to a carl marx lecture if you have a chance to attend?
Yes, on the going live on election night.
No, on eliminating the weekly Q&A. I find more value in the non-Live Q&A where you answer the comment box questions from the market outlook because you are able to write on the screen and go more in depth than the live Q&A where you’re limited to just talking and not being able to go deeper.
Hi Mark, what's your take on election betting through Kalshi? Thank you!
Wouldn’t the FED jump in and be a buyer at the long end if yields rose significantly?
That is Mark' bet: he believes that ultimately the system cannot afford high yields and the Fed will be forced to QE/YCC the long-end of the curve down to the zero line. That is why he is long Duration. Basically, he believes that Fed > bond vigilantes.
If u had make a case against TLT, what is ur strongest argument?
Love the idea of the commentary
What‘s your take on BCE's acquisition announcement and the market reaction？
I will be doing a deeper dive into BCE with this Firday's Positions video in the Applied level.
it will be "the idea" of the month for November, sir. Thank you
Dr Meldrum,
I try to watch the market updates every week and would love to watch more of your analyses and join your lives, but I am studying for CFA, working full time and interviewing for new jobs so my attendance here isn't consistent. I would join your lives more often and wanted to let you know when at least one of these lets up I'll be more active.
How do you take a position on currencies? Is the best way to just exchange CAD to USD? That way I get hit with a spread from my broker though.
Great idea election night live with mark meldrum!
1)how to know i really know a concept or i really know something maybe about finance or any other stuff,,BECAUSE many times when time of testing comes or i hear others ,i feel i dont know it all but i thought i know it or i know a little bit \
2)can we know any topic in finance or any other stuff completely like 100 % or its just impossible ?
Yes please on the election night live!
Haven't heard you talk about AGNC in a while. It's trading around $9.32/share with a dividend yield around 15 percent at the time of this comment. Do you think it's a good buy here?
Maybe add as you reference the reason for taking each your trade plan...as pdf's so can. Be used to study...add more chart views or ibk views when discussing as opposed to just excel....but please do not let 4% viewership take away from the importance of this area...
I'm confused. If the concern is about the sheer amount of debt and how unsustainable it is, shouldn't that push yields down (I believe that was one or your arguments at some point) due to what higher rates would do to the economy over a prolonged period of time? Or are you arguing from a short-term perspective (i.e., 3 months)?
If debt continues to rise at this unsustainable cadence it put into question the viability of the US ability to pay that debt, thus higher premiums for holding that risk
Right, that makes sense. Forgot to look for the most obvious reason hahah. Thanks.
preparing the popcorn for the live event this Tuesday night
TLT could rally over the next week on uncertainty
Very good idea!
nice idea on live stream after 8 pm!
No market position this week?
It's in applied series for a few weeks now.
definitely here for the Election Day live session
Love the live election night
Yes to the election commentary!
Begin at @4:53
Election night live would be nice!
yes to the Live
Election night would be memorable with you
All systems go with the election live event.
Do the election night!
"ADP is always wrong. I dont know we pay attention to it."
Dude so stop paying attention to it, stop mentioning and showing it to us.
Break the cycle Mark.
US probably won't know who won until Saturday.
Get ready Trudeau you are next!
Hi
Hi Mark, what is your approach when dealing with futures? Is there a rule that you use to decide the liquidity to "cover" the margin? Regarding this topic, are you planning to make an applied futures series? Thank you and have a good day.
Election night and Live Wednesday are all great decisions! Looking forward to it