As discussed in the video - a big driver of this is likely diversion of resources to meet Russia's wartime requirements, but the data also shows broader trends at play. Meanwhile, for those of you struggling to picture what 1 Trend-Indicator-Value (TIV) represents - here are a few examples to give a sense of scale: Type 218SG Submarine - 325 TIV Su-30K Aircraft - 47.5 TIV Second Hand PZH-2000 SPG - 4.5 TIV Second hand T-72M1 Tank (Modernised) - 1.72 TIV Used M113 APC - 0.25 TIV Anyway, data crunching and defence economics - this one was fun. Hope you enjoy. There is a lot more I can pull out of this and other data sets on the arms market outside Russia's place in it. We'll see how this video goes though before I plot out any sequels. As always with data focused pieces, please consider reviewing the underlying data and methodology (including its limitations in coverage and choices around definitions) and any correction (like saying "deliveries" rather than "revenue" at one point).
a note - a market where supply and demand are free to adjust to each other will automatically trend towards ZERO profit, because at the (moving) supply-demand-equilibrium-point any additional supply will only be sell-able at a loss. To achieve revenue exceeding cost, the supply must be kept below demand, so that the buyers outbid each other obtaining "rare" product - which is what the 'profit' is about. Profits are a signal of the market that supply is below demand and attracts competitors to increase the supply - until it meets demand.
further - and yes, our real existing economies introduce(d) many legal protections (for selected suppliers) that prohibit or undermine competition from reacting to the profit (read: under-supply situation) by increasing the supply until it meets demand (at cost). The avenue this happens via is the political system, where 1 in ~500.000 can become lawmakers (regulatory capture becomes very easy), which is the main Achilles heel of our modern societies and the root cause of most of our problems.
Weld quality for russia has traditionally been a problem. Welds on the T-34 were noticeably substandard for purpose even after the identification of the source of metallurgical flaws ( hydrogen embrittlement, sulfur embrittlement, piping porosity, etc.) They just didn't care.
@@michaelgreaves2375 I'd say the average russian soldier has a lot of embrittlement....Vodka embrittlement, Krokodil embrittlement, tobacco embrittlement, and so on🤣
I've long joked that one of the few ways the "Putin is playing 5D chess" concept would make sense is if he had a massive number of shares in Raytheon while shorting Sukhoi.
That would be like Elon Musk intentionally trashing Tesla while quietly buying up massive amounts of BYD. He’s already doing a pretty good job burning down Tesla…
Speaking of Raytheon, some of their post WW2 business ventures were pretty crazy, think radar equipped automated train yards in the 1960s, as well as the well known microwave oven I'm pretty sure during the 1950-60s you could just find a Raytheon engineer and offer them $10 to build a radar system and they'd say something like "sure, you can have this old test radar set that was sitting on my desk, I was just using it to keep my coffee warm anyway"
Perun (sarcastically): "This episode will contain everyone's favourite things: think data, graphs, economic statistics." His fanbase (for real): "Oh, yeah, thats the good stuff."
Fanbase (sarcastically): oh yeah sure what kind of person would ever even want to watch these out of their own volition amirite *keeps watching intently*
@@dpelpal As perun said dont count them out yet. After 1991 gulf war one would expect that noone would buy russian despite their turrets flying high in kuwait
Yeah i laughed at that too. But to be fair, continuously lending yourself money by trading state bonds through your federal banking system like a never ending Ponzi scheme probably is not an infinite money glitch either. The economic system of the entire world is in dire need of an overhaul. Everywhere i look i see the same. A corrupted system with a small financial elite at the top who every year increase their own share of the pie at the expense of the common people.
There is zero indication that the Russian armaments industry is operating at a loss. Yes, when the war is over it will have to fire a lot of people. So what? The war comes at a cost, but Russia doesn't need to make a profit (beyond the acquisition of territory, etc.) on it. It has taxes to cover its operational cost and doesn't need profits. Perun is here spinning relentlessly but not remotely convincingly. Russia needs arms right now and doesn't need sales, so that its sales are down is neither a surprise nor a problem. After it defeats Ukraine it will have arms surplus to its needs, but Perun claims that replenishing its stockpiles will be a problem. This is ridiculous.
LOL, many Western allies have stated that Russia's economy, arms sales etc would plunge and it will go bankrupt. However, until now Russia's economy is far way better than the EU and USA's economic growth combined. So I would not buy this one side story done by PerunAustralia. The West has seized Russia's assets in the EU and the USA but Putin has not asked his global south friends to seize the Western assets there. Imagine if that happens, the West will bankrupt automatically. 2nd, BRICS, China Silk Road, ASEAN plus, and many Russia and China allies hold huge natural resource deposits. If they don't want to sell cheap to rich USA ally countries, the USA allies cannot sell their products competitively. That's what has happened today. Russia has triggered a war in Palestine and the USA honestly has stated that it cannot finance two wars at a time. How about if Russia creates another war near the USA or in the EU and Australasia? 2nd China also plays beautifully. The UK and Japan are in recession. Both of these countries are the biggest US bondholders (Japan) and the third U bondholders (the UK) in the world. China has reduced its imports from the EU and Japan. If there is less demand for the UK and Japan products worldwide, Japan and the UK can sell its US debts. Thus China may also sell its US debts. FYI, in US history, no more than two countries sell their USD debts in bulk at one time. If that happens, the USA will be broken.
What I like is that despite doing things which are sometimes done in a very dry way (in depth analysis) you actually have a good sense of humour. Makes all the difference, really.
LOL, many Western allies have stated that Russia's economy, arms sales etc would plunge and it will go bankrupt. However, until now Russia's economy is far way better than the EU and USA's economic growth combined. So I would not buy this one side story done by PerunAustralia. The West has seized Russia's assets in the EU and the USA but Putin has not asked his global south friends to seize the Western assets there. Imagine if that happens, the West will bankrupt automatically. 2nd, BRICS, China Silk Road, ASEAN plus, and many Russia and China allies hold huge natural resource deposits. If they don't want to sell cheap to rich USA ally countries, the USA allies cannot sell their products competitively. That's what has happened today. Russia has triggered a war in Palestine and the USA honestly has stated that it cannot finance two wars at a time. How about if Russia creates another war near the USA or in the EU and Australasia? 2nd China also plays beautifully. The UK and Japan are in recession. Both of these countries are the biggest US bondholders (Japan) and the third U bondholders (the UK) in the world. China has reduced its imports from the EU and Japan. If there is less demand for the UK and Japan products worldwide, Japan and the UK can sell its US debts. Thus China may also sell its US debts. FYI, in US history, no more than two countries sell their USD debts in bulk at one time. If that happens, the USA will be broken.
@@MSDGroup-ez6zk Russian exports HAVE plunged. They’re not delivering promised products and no one is placing orders for new ones. These customers are going elsewhere. Why would they ever come back?
@@PeaShooter33 Of course they can, every once in awhile. Western tanks aren't invincible. That doesn't mean that they are bad. Bad is when the whole thing bursts into flames at the slightest provocation and then explodes spectacularly, vaporizing its crew. Western tanks rarely do that. Russian tanks do it so often it has become a meme.
@@PeaShooter33 That mostly hit a massive stack of mines, but I have seen many more alive people emerge from a leopard wreck then from any russian tank having lost its turret .. no wait, I have seen nobody emerge from such tanks!
India's that kid who grew up poor and guying in second hand stores and charity shops but got an education and a job and can now offer to buy good quality products so is seeing Boris at the charity shop much less often and is visiting Pierre's boutique more often.
13:49 This graph does a good job of showing a reason (among many) why I like Perun’s work so much. The scale is reflective of the data. It isn’t cropped and zoomed to make negligible changes look enormous for sensationalism’s sake. Nothing can undermine your faith in a source of information quite like seeing something that indicates they think you’re really, really stupid and want to exploit that.
Did you appreciated part where he compared data from 2 years to 3? Seems like very nice subtle way to create tiny bit of sensationalism by adjusting data towards your point instead of deducing it other way around :)
"T-90 is better suited to this war" is certainly a face saving way of saying "T-14 requires imported tech we can't produce". I do wonder how much of Russia's coasting on it's soviet legacy comes from the oligarchy strip mining their economy. It's rather difficult to keep pace when most of your R&D money gets spent on London townhouses, German superyachts and Italian villas. Not that you can really blame them, there's no point in reinvesting in your business when the government or a better connected oligarch can just take it from you at any time.
They seem to have problems to mass produce their most recent developments in general. Not only the T-14, AFAIK Russia has also made only a few dozen Su-57.
@@rabiatorthegreat6163 Shhh! Nobody is supposed to know that. Russia hasn't used those systems because they're "holding back" -not because they don't have a single operational unit ... roughly a decade on from their introduction.
I used to work in heavy engineering (power stations). Turbine overhauls were planned with 14 days of 12 hour shifts using highly skilled labour. Then they had 4 days off. Without fail. Whenever we extended the 12 hour period there was always a costly mistake.
From any perspective, the Ukraine War will go down as a Pyrrhic victory (or loss). The damage done on both sides will take generations to overcome. Even if Russia manages to extract itself without further damage, win or lose, it has managed to cripple itself severely. In many ways, this was the last gasp of the Soviet Union. When the USSR collapsed, the West thought we had miraculously dodged a bullet, which would have been a major war with the USSR. Apparently, we did not, at least not entirely. Perhaps the Imperial Russia/USSR/Russia epoch will finally end once the USSR generation has died off. The parallels with Hitler are unavoidable. Adoph was driven by the feeling that Germany had given up in WWI when it should have continued, so we got WWII (I know it was way more complicated than that, but go along with it for now). Putin is driven by the sense that the USSR should never have collapsed and has done everything he can to reestablish it. They say history may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.
Sorry but did you say that Russia will collapse as a state or its imperial ambitions? Its used interchangebly these days , hope you will clearify, thanks.
That observation has some poignant truths, but the overall truth you seem to be missing is that both Ukraine and Russia were maneuvered into this in a strategy dating back to Bill Clinton being President, explicitly to kill as many people as possible by conventional means, before going with WMD. The current war is simply being used as an experimental lab to test human creativity and endurance to see the results; this is why small quantities of Western weapons are introduced. "Would you like to play a game?"
@@u2beuser714 I am no prophet. I think Russia will survive but in a greatly diminished condition. So far, its military has benefited from the huge inventory of USSR armaments. I suspect that will be so depleted that rearming will be a bigger challenge than they will be able to do in less than a couple of decades. Their education system has fallen apart and their population is aging out rapidly. This war has driven out some of their most educated young men and I suspect many will never return. Their problems with alcoholism are almost pandemic. Their international armaments business has almost collapsed and not just because they are focused on Ukraine. This war has changed their profile internationally. I would not be the least surprised if they ended up losing territory to the Chinese, who may be the ultimate beneficiaries of the Ukraine war, but they have their own problems. The CCP has already indicated their desire to regain lands they lost to Russia after WWII. Somehow Russia ends up with a Czar no matter how much they try to change their fate. If they weren't so belligerent, I might even feel sorry for them.
@@u2beuser714 For many Russian politician the two seem to be intertwined. And for them it would be horror if Russia decent to the status of French or Great Britain. Of course those countries are still doing fine after the loss of their world empire although they can still play imperial in niche places of their former empire. And most European countries have been empire at at least local level and are still prospering. The problem is Russian politicians need to learn to wheel and deal along with the foreign counterparts in foreign affairs instead of bullying them around. But that might mentally be a step too far leaving them hanging in simple real politics.
@@krissteel4074 I don't think it was a question of appreciation, it was more of a question of need. US doctrine is about achieving air superiority and then rolling in with the troops. Such theatre doesn't have much of a role for HIMARS.
@@666Tomato666not really the case! They are meant to counter effective enemy artillery. We haven't really encountered that but that's not because it's not a thing our doctrine is meant to deal with. And you know what? They worked like GANGBUSTERS for it, so we did well.
Curiously enough, today I've decided to cut down on UA-cam a lot. Nonsense will be reduced to near zero. But nonsense is not a concept even existing in the same dimension with this channel's content. Thank you, Perun. Much love from Bulgaria and see you next week.
Out of curiosity, do you know much about the Bulgarian arms industry? How much of its manufacturing is creating products developed from the old soviet designs?
@@lukeneill1568 isnt russia well on its way to run out of its massive soviet stockpile in a few years? maybe should have stuck to the 3 days time plan instead of 3 years?
Given the recent drone strike deep into Russian territory, I can imagine that the reputation of Russian air defense system is going to take another major hit.
I don't necessarily agree with that. Russia has so much ground to cover to protect themselves against drones that they need a crazy number of air defense systems to take care of it, especially if the drones are flying low. So russia has to place their air defense where they believe it's needed - and they will continue to get it wrong since Ukraine will continue to strike a diverse set of changing targets.
@@Irthexthey originate all from a relativly small border with ukraine. Protect that and the entirety of russia is protected. Russia does not need end point protection if it all originates from a small geographical area, and for anything it's air defence misses it has a major airforce that can intercept anything that pierces that screen and is on it's way deep into russias territory. Russia is failing spactacularly in both parts of that defence.
@@maryginger4877 And with good reason. I'm sorry to tell you, but your government seem to be feeding you lies, my russian friend. How about using your time and ressources to better conditions for the russian people instead of attacking ukranians?
You know the saying “the shoemaker’s children go barefoot”? The procurement analyst forgot to procure anything for himself. (There’s also the saying, “the shoes of the fisherman’s wife are some jive-ass slippers”. But now that I think on it, it’s the title of a song by Charles Mingus, not an actual saying.)
@@pll3827and at some point we take an old iteration to stick a super laser on instead of the newest and it's entirely not because Disney already had an old model to edit and was too lazy to make the right thing despite being a multi billion dollar company
There are some observations to be had. In the 1990s Russia exported the Su-27SK/UBK and Su-30MKK to China and then the Su-30MKI to India and Sukhoi then went on a major export sphree leaving MiG and its incomplete MiG-29M behind in the dust. However, China eventually got the Su-27 (now called J-11) and started producing enhanced versions of it and the engines and avionics to go with it, and has less demand for Russian equipment. India to a lesser degree has achieved some form of self-sufficiency on the Su-30MKI. With that, one can easily see that no other client will purchase such large quantities and Sukhoi was not particularly good at marketing beyond the big government-to-government orders. Another issue, the Russian Sukhois are still made using dated and inefficient production methods in the 1990s and 2000s but it seems that they have upgraded their facilities since then. Despite this, the Chinese appear to have much better industrial organisation and can probably produce the J-11 (Su-27), J-15 (Su-33) and J-16 (Su-30) at much lower cost than the Russian one with a far greater selection of weapons and technology. Lucky for Sukhoi and the Russian government that China isn't pitching its Sino-Flankers for sale.
"Weld quality so bad it is difficult to distinguish from fire damage". Damn, this is why I watch these videos. The lovely gems of 'OMG, he totally went there!' Nicely done.
Russian weakness in chips and software is badly hampering the export potential as latest generation of weapons get hi-tech. Relatively new entrants like Turkey [drones], China [aircraft, vehicles and munitions], and India [rocket launcher, artilery guns and radars]. Simply being cheap is no longer an advantage either.
Ever since I as a teenager started reading Terry Pratchett I have followd the motto"Follow the money"! With statistics and plenty of datapoints to go that is exactly what you do here and I love it!!!
@@PerunAU I have an old 1995 first generation Pentium still working. But it can't play modern games. It's some old Japanese brand (Toshiba? I'm not sure), it weighs half a ton.
Watch South Korea too. The K2 tank and K9 self propelled howitzer seem good enough for Poland. And Poland wants it's equipment to be superior to Russia's now and for the next 10 plus years.
The US and European nations have actively bought out former Soviet clients, buying their inventories and shipping those to Ukraine….. replacing the equipment from their own inventory. This has significantly reduced Russia’s client base.
Yes and no. Nobody sells what they want to keep. The fact that those countries are willing to sell of their old Russia/Soviet equipment & replace it with western stuff -rather than new Russian equivelents, is telling.
Mr. Perun, could we have a detailed analysis of how Sweden and Finland joining NATO changed the situation in Baltic Sea area? After all, it became NATO pond now, with only two Russian enclaves clinging to it.
I'm not sure there's enough to talk about there. NATO lake, vs Russia that wasted most of their military capacity on Ukraine. Those exclaves are really interesting though. I wish we had more data about that little forward military base...
@@maryginger4877 NATO no longer takes russia seriously as a military power. They may say so in the media, but for the most part NATO leaders are laughing at the russian military.
@@maryginger4877 Both NATO and Russia have a longer border to defend, now. However, NATO's membership and resources have grown with that expansion. Conversely, Russia's economic and military resources are falling as I type. That's why it's easy for the Russian Volunteer Corp and The Legion of Freedom, to conduct raids that last for days. Rusdia is over stretched.
My goodness, Perun, your ability to comprehensively and concisely convey such a wealth of information *with context* is astounding. Thank you so much for sharing your passion with the world. 👊🏼
The world at large has witnessed Western hardware racking up ridiculous kill ratios against Soviet and Russian hardware across multiple wars since 1991. There is an old saying that "Any publicity is good publicity", but that definitely does NOT apply to marketing weapons.
50:00 It's even worse than that. It's not just the workers that need breaks, the factory machines do too. It can be hard or impossible to do preventative maintenance (oil checks, lubrication, cleaning, inspecting welds, etc.) while a machine is still running. Worse, when things do break, there's an incentive to do hasty patch jobs instead of a proper repair, leading to more problems in the future. The desire to "maximize productive", ironically, is very dangerous if you want long term productivity.
As a general rule, a nominal max production rate is 2 full shifts/week, as a general rule. Anything beyond that should either be temporary or have a stupendously reliable production line designed from day 1 to support continuous operation.
Nothing wrong with trying to maximize production as long as you do a proper analysis of the factors of production. The real danger comes in when you try it hit quotas
39:08 big boi India mentioned, so here i give a footnote for the small boi VN: VN military itself is looking up to China (& India)'s self reliant efforts, alongside the sourcing diversification to Israel, South Korea and others suppliers with technological connections to Soviet legacy tech tree so Russian arms export to VN is expected to shrink too at best i could only see VN buying more Su-30 (maybe Su-30SME) to bolster our multirole-maritime fighter fleet because unfortunately 20:40 VN has very few choice in building an fighter fleet on budget
also 18:56 one dirty uppercut to 152mm fanboys out there (me included) good news for the 152mm: VN & probably a number of 3rd world militaries are still using the caliber and is considering expanding production related to the 152mm (first the shells, then the barrels) still bad new for Russia's 152mm: now their potential 152mm customers are self-reliant, they will lose these customers too (looking to North Korea producing & selling 152mm shells to Russia)
Really happy to see this, it’s a topic I’ve been wondering about since the invasion began. I fail to see any real upside for Russia out of this in almost any timeframe. This episode has everything that I appreciate from Perun. Quality information, qualitative and supported with data plus some jokes along the way. Much appreciated.
If the Ukes had collapsed in a few days then it would have been able to dictate terms at very little cost like they did in Georgia. Once that failed then it has turned into a face saving operation I guess.
@@Alan.livingstonyou seem to forget that previous operation, not "special" but "counter-terrorist" one - took Russia 10 years till "its finished" announcement. And that was against non-state entity. Do you really think they haven't planned that this one could be same length or longer?
When your only real arms exports customer is Iran, I think it's fair to say that it's not a viable business model any more. At this point it's basically Iran and Russia selling weapons to each other.
Excellent analysis. Always pleasure to listen. Matter of fact, looking forward to each Sunday, to learn something new. Yes, Your vids are also educational for many people who had some general idea about defense industry and military. Cordial regards dear Landsman 🌞
@@ulfosterberg9116For decades the indian domestic defense industry was a monopoly of bureaucratic, inefficient and dogshit state owned enterprises, which has been broken now in recent years by the private sector due to liberalisation of defense sector. And if you look at the numbers the private sector is getting pretty good at shafting the public sector merely in a decades time.
@@chilbiyito looks like it. Historically the pattern is clear, the government leaves the sector = that sector becomes much better. For example it took the indian government 50 years to realise that they can't run an airline. So after trashing it for years, they sold it in 2021 to the same industrial group from whom they bought it originally.
Very interesting presentation; I admit I expected these results after at leat April of the invasion year for mostly the provided reasons and it's nice to see a data set that verifies this. Eagerly anticipating your next presentation and thank you for all your work.
Russia only needs its weapons for ‘right now’….but if you are say India, can you guarantee that spare parts will be available in 5, or 10 years as sanctions bite harder?…and unlike hydrocarbons, manufactured goods are not ‘fungible’….
I don't think you realize how much of these so-called Russian weapons India manufactures in-house. India doesn't just buy arms. It buys/builds entire arms supply chains. Also, stuff whose spares dry up can just be replaced by Indian designed replacements for the entire sub-system. I mean, India is upgrading their Su-30 MKI from 4th gen to 4.5th gen standard all by themselves. They only tried to negotiate with Russia for newer model of engines (to be produced in India).
At 17:30 Perun talks about "marketing" aka reputation. I think Ukrainians did a good job in spoiling the marketing for many Russian systems by interviews in which they clearly compared and valued the western systems more than the Russian stuff. e.g. Crew Survivability or Gunsights or Environmental Awareness. And we all know what popping T72-90 Turrets do to marketing.😁
Absolutely beautifully crafted dude. I’ve been guesstimating that something similar has been happening but didn’t have the numbers. This will be so much easier to communicate to family and friends.
A rather disturbing observation one could make after seeing the data presented here is that the decision to invade Ukraine was influenced, at least to some degree, by falling Russian weapons sales to other countries. Likewise, the French decision to ramp up its recent rhetoric on Russia might correlate with a desire to boost French weapons manufacture and exports. Related to this, the average MAGA voter should consider that 'taxpayer donations to Ukraine' will result in increased weapons sales to other countries that completely outweigh those 'donations'. The US will make a proverbial killing from this war. It is all rather nefarious and macabre.
Yes, Ukraine is a weird area where America’s ideals, political interests, and economic interests align with a nice opportunity to spite Putin. Which makes it even weirder how many seek to squander it.
Just wanted to say thanks for your powerpoints, this got uploaded at a perfect time when I'm feeling down, im sure ill forget all my worries once this hour is over
It always stuns me how badly Russia fails at things. This is happening to a country that used to have the most technically superior space program. Yikes.
they had the best space programme when they started doing cause no one had invested in there This happens because everyone smart in Russia either gets killed or flees to the west
@@stefansekulic7903 No, that's incorrect. Russian tanks even fail at that undertaking miserably just at 5% between top and bottom. But they excel in making a very nice New Years fireworks all season long. Caveat: Soem ukrainian soldiers need to use the same failing orbital launch system.
Fantastic vid this week, *even better* than your usual. I’ve listened through twice and I expect I’ll hit this one at least once more. Nicely done sir.
This is one of your better essays. Among pretty good company. Well documented, thoughtful, data driven. I have no idea how you manage to get such deep and one would think secret information, but I sure appreciate it. And will continue to support your efforts financially, when I can.
Brilliant as always my friend ! Very proud that you are a fellow Aussie and your great sense of humor reflects that national tradition very well indeed ! Your obvious intellectual prowess makes you a fine ambassador for the best Australia can offer the world in these dark times !
The key there is "licensing." It's like "franchising," when it comes to marketing. And just as uniformity and quality control of consistency is the number-one rule in successful franchising, so in licensing.
You have the best videos. A minimum of politics, and only open sources that anyone can check. And a bit of dry humor and very few claims of clairvoyance. Thanks!
Analysis of defence export industry data sounds a very dry topic. And it is. But not with our secret added ingredient- PERUN! The GOAT of Power Point makes me warm and fuzzy inside and thirsting for more! Huzzah!
My reading is that Russian military production since 2014 is at capacity (for domestic customer), and in overdrive since 2022. Foreign sales are luxury of peace time.
Which is why reading these brainlets get 2k votes on stupid comments about 'ruzzia' arms collapse is giving me a migraine. Even if video provides some information, the community is toxic and drives propaganda. Besides, his "data" is wrong anyway. Military contracts especially now are disclosed more than ever. Serbia for example is WAITING on several contracts and wants more stuff, but is unable to do so due to war and sanctions. But still received Helicopters for civs service at least. Perun haven't mention that. All in all a good 2/10 on this topic. He shows alot of misinformation and fail to conceptioalise the current situation.
@@ickyconcrete5370 He mentioned internal consumption as potentially commanding so much materiel that foreign buyers begin to wonder if their orders will ship on time. Yeah, it's like you forgot to turn on your hearing aid.
I am only 15 minutes in, but arms exports need both seller and buyer. So far it's very focused on why people aren't buying, but there is also a "Russia unwilling to sell" factor. Edit: Diversion covers that.
"You're only as good as your last bad day(s)". So true. When I was in the Navy, we had a saying - "One 'Oh, Sh-t!'" wipes out 10 "Attaboys!". Negatives always seem to leave a more lasting impact on perception and belief than positives.
19:19 the fact that ship sales are so relatively stable is somewhat surprising to me given that the Russian navy is currently being sunk by what amounts to RC canoes.
You'd have to question the sanity of anyone looking to buy a Star Destroyer considering the things get regularly destroyed by small groups of poorly trained saboteurs or a single starfighter pilot on a revenge quest On the other hand, a single aging Mon Calamari cruiser is apparently enough to destroy the entire First Order fleet as long as you don't mind it being a kamikaze run
You probably should have pointed out Indonesia's case in the late 1960s and early 70s, when a sudden breakup of the previously cozy relationship with the Soviet Union led to many Soviet systems rapidly turning unserviceable, and the Indonesian Air Force in particular had to sell off their MiG-21s (barely half a generation behind the state of the art, if that) and go back to the primarily World War II vintage aircraft they had been operating beforehand. Even when they got back to jets, they had to step back one generation back to ex-Australian Avon Sabres at first. Something similar might happen with some erstwhile Russian defence customers in the coming years, as you've pointed out. On a tangential note, the current Indonesian defence establishment was already playing Russia and Ukraine against each other to get lower costs for the maintenance and upgrade of systems like their Su-27 and Su-30 fighters before the invasion (especially the engines with their notoriously short service lives). Now it might be looking to China instead, and then only as a stopgap until new F-15EXs arrive to replace the Sukhois in the big fat long-range fighter role.
Excellent comment too. Would add that artillery shells are made in a wide price range, especially the high-tech long distance guided shells Russia not really produces. Same for short distance . ground-to-ground rocket systems. Other point is that competition is built up again in many countries that stopped development and production since the breakdown of Soviet Union 30 year ago such as Germany and countries entering the market with successful products, for example Türkiye, South Korea
They are loosing India slowly since years. That was the country that saved their defense industry in the 90s, now this is a way bigger trend. That will be the death blow, or they go full North Korea to sustain their industry. We will see. Meanwhille number 2, 3 and 4 spots in the global weapon sellers will be a big competition every year and it seems that in that categories the West still have many good things to sell.
Pretty clear to me before I watched that this was two fold; number one, Russia realizing they need their own gear and not selling as much. The bigger issue, is that potential buyers are seeing Russia hilariously fail to conquer a country smaller than Moscow (not literally) and saying "Yeah, I don't want that trash gear they're using."
As discussed in the video - a big driver of this is likely diversion of resources to meet Russia's wartime requirements, but the data also shows broader trends at play. Meanwhile, for those of you struggling to picture what 1 Trend-Indicator-Value (TIV) represents - here are a few examples to give a sense of scale:
Type 218SG Submarine - 325 TIV
Su-30K Aircraft - 47.5 TIV
Second Hand PZH-2000 SPG - 4.5 TIV
Second hand T-72M1 Tank (Modernised) - 1.72 TIV
Used M113 APC - 0.25 TIV
Anyway, data crunching and defence economics - this one was fun. Hope you enjoy.
There is a lot more I can pull out of this and other data sets on the arms market outside Russia's place in it. We'll see how this video goes though before I plot out any sequels.
As always with data focused pieces, please consider reviewing the underlying data and methodology (including its limitations in coverage and choices around definitions) and any correction (like saying "deliveries" rather than "revenue" at one point).
What if russia is withholding the military units on purpose as preparation for the offensive on NATO?
a note - a market where supply and demand are free to adjust to each other will automatically trend towards ZERO profit, because at the (moving) supply-demand-equilibrium-point any additional supply will only be sell-able at a loss. To achieve revenue exceeding cost, the supply must be kept below demand, so that the buyers outbid each other obtaining "rare" product - which is what the 'profit' is about. Profits are a signal of the market that supply is below demand and attracts competitors to increase the supply - until it meets demand.
further - and yes, our real existing economies introduce(d) many legal protections (for selected suppliers) that prohibit or undermine competition from reacting to the profit (read: under-supply situation) by increasing the supply until it meets demand (at cost). The avenue this happens via is the political system, where 1 in ~500.000 can become lawmakers (regulatory capture becomes very easy), which is the main Achilles heel of our modern societies and the root cause of most of our problems.
How many TiV is a 200 foot yacht? Asking for a friend.
@joansparky4439 this is a neat idea, any papers or authors you'd recommend that cover this?
_"Weld quality so bad, it's hard to distinguish from fire damage."_
Genuine lol.
Russia is the joke of the world at this point😂
Weld quality for russia has traditionally been a problem. Welds on the T-34 were noticeably substandard for purpose even after the identification of the source of metallurgical flaws ( hydrogen embrittlement, sulfur embrittlement, piping porosity, etc.) They just didn't care.
@@michaelgreaves2375 I'd say the average russian soldier has a lot of embrittlement....Vodka embrittlement, Krokodil embrittlement, tobacco embrittlement, and so on🤣
@@michaelgreaves2375 I remember seeing a T34/85 in Bovington. Massive weld scars right across the turret.
But the T34 was "just" good enough to accomplish it's task. And there were HUGE numbers of them. Badly welded armor is still armor.
I've long joked that one of the few ways the "Putin is playing 5D chess" concept would make sense is if he had a massive number of shares in Raytheon while shorting Sukhoi.
That would be like Elon Musk intentionally trashing Tesla while quietly buying up massive amounts of BYD. He’s already doing a pretty good job burning down Tesla…
If putin is playing 5D chess, he's the only leader in the world that can make his armed forces into a joke in 5 dimensions! 🤣
Speaking of Raytheon, some of their post WW2 business ventures were pretty crazy, think radar equipped automated train yards in the 1960s, as well as the well known microwave oven
I'm pretty sure during the 1950-60s you could just find a Raytheon engineer and offer them $10 to build a radar system and they'd say something like "sure, you can have this old test radar set that was sitting on my desk, I was just using it to keep my coffee warm anyway"
Fun times.
"qUanTity hAs a qUaliTY 0f iTs oWn! rUSSIa wEAPoNS r cHEap n rEliable!". ---> Every War Thunder fan boys, Ivan bots and Ruzzian simps.
Perun (sarcastically): "This episode will contain everyone's favourite things: think data, graphs, economic statistics."
His fanbase (for real): "Oh, yeah, thats the good stuff."
Give it to me, powerpoint daddy ❤
The dryer the content the wetter the cargo pants
Fanbase (sarcastically): oh yeah sure what kind of person would ever even want to watch these out of their own volition amirite *keeps watching intently*
Gib me all the data... we're all masocists.
I'm always struck by how exited I get when Perun goes out of his way to explain the dryness of the subject matter.
“In 2013 there were around 34 countries placing military supply orders from Russia.
In 2023 that number was three.”
That’s a telling figure.
Russian army and russian arms are the joke of the world at this point. I think the whole _"Kyiv in THREE DAYS!"_ thing did them in lol.
Yeah, everyone moved to South Korea, France, Turkey, Israel, US & China MIC.
@@dpelpalno one said that except general milly an American
@@dpelpal As perun said dont count them out yet. After 1991 gulf war one would expect that noone would buy russian despite their turrets flying high in kuwait
@@YoHoMineThe incursion to Kyiv begs to differ.
Selling your stuff to yourself at a loss is not an infinite money glitch 😂
Perfect
Remember that the russian army is the only army to have lost 50% of the land they held and still claim they're "winning"
Yeah i laughed at that too. But to be fair, continuously lending yourself money by trading state bonds through your federal banking system like a never ending Ponzi scheme probably is not an infinite money glitch either. The economic system of the entire world is in dire need of an overhaul. Everywhere i look i see the same. A corrupted system with a small financial elite at the top who every year increase their own share of the pie at the expense of the common people.
Well it is if the world needs your oil and gas and financing it😂
@@christianjohansson5440 I dont know, the world was pretty fine without it in the last years..
There is zero indication that the Russian armaments industry is operating at a loss. Yes, when the war is over it will have to fire a lot of people. So what?
The war comes at a cost, but Russia doesn't need to make a profit (beyond the acquisition of territory, etc.) on it. It has taxes to cover its operational cost and doesn't need profits.
Perun is here spinning relentlessly but not remotely convincingly. Russia needs arms right now and doesn't need sales, so that its sales are down is neither a surprise nor a problem.
After it defeats Ukraine it will have arms surplus to its needs, but Perun claims that replenishing its stockpiles will be a problem. This is ridiculous.
I don't understand how Perun makes such excellent presentations OUTSIDE of his full time job, every week on the dot. Don't burn out!
He has a gaming channel too
Yeah, UA-camrs got to start looking after themselves. The audience will still be here if you take a weekend off perun dude!
He did say in the Q&A that his job is now part time so he can dedicate more time to the channel, but yeah, work ethic go brrr
Wonder if he ever goes outside, or would the sun shrivel him to a crisp🤔
Who says he doesn't use the same presentations for both...? 🤔
"in 2018 RU was Samsung, and in 2023 they were a fractional share of Vivo"
Man he is too good.
I love the smell of PowerPoints in the morning
…it smells like, victory.
@@joebollig2689beat me to it
It smells like Victory...
scented with Orange and Liquorice.
Microsoft should sponsor this channel for bringing sexy back to PowerPoint!
LOL, many Western allies have stated that Russia's economy, arms sales etc would plunge and it will go bankrupt. However, until now Russia's economy is far way better than the EU and USA's economic growth combined. So I would not buy this one side story done by PerunAustralia.
The West has seized Russia's assets in the EU and the USA but Putin has not asked his global south friends to seize the Western assets there. Imagine if that happens, the West will bankrupt automatically.
2nd, BRICS, China Silk Road, ASEAN plus, and many Russia and China allies hold huge natural resource deposits. If they don't want to sell cheap to rich USA ally countries, the USA allies cannot sell their products competitively. That's what has happened today. Russia has triggered a war in Palestine and the USA honestly has stated that it cannot finance two wars at a time. How about if Russia creates another war near the USA or in the EU and Australasia?
2nd China also plays beautifully. The UK and Japan are in recession. Both of these countries are the biggest US bondholders (Japan) and the third U bondholders (the UK) in the world. China has reduced its imports from the EU and Japan. If there is less demand for the UK and Japan products worldwide, Japan and the UK can sell its US debts. Thus China may also sell its US debts. FYI, in US history, no more than two countries sell their USD debts in bulk at one time. If that happens, the USA will be broken.
I can’t believe the T-90m’s aren’t fly off the shelves, like their turrets
Underrated comment
What I like is that despite doing things which are sometimes done in a very dry way (in depth analysis) you actually have a good sense of humour. Makes all the difference, really.
The russian military has a great sense of humor. They made themselves into the joke of the world in less than 2 years lol
LOL, many Western allies have stated that Russia's economy, arms sales etc would plunge and it will go bankrupt. However, until now Russia's economy is far way better than the EU and USA's economic growth combined. So I would not buy this one side story done by PerunAustralia.
The West has seized Russia's assets in the EU and the USA but Putin has not asked his global south friends to seize the Western assets there. Imagine if that happens, the West will bankrupt automatically.
2nd, BRICS, China Silk Road, ASEAN plus, and many Russia and China allies hold huge natural resource deposits. If they don't want to sell cheap to rich USA ally countries, the USA allies cannot sell their products competitively. That's what has happened today. Russia has triggered a war in Palestine and the USA honestly has stated that it cannot finance two wars at a time. How about if Russia creates another war near the USA or in the EU and Australasia?
2nd China also plays beautifully. The UK and Japan are in recession. Both of these countries are the biggest US bondholders (Japan) and the third U bondholders (the UK) in the world. China has reduced its imports from the EU and Japan. If there is less demand for the UK and Japan products worldwide, Japan and the UK can sell its US debts. Thus China may also sell its US debts. FYI, in US history, no more than two countries sell their USD debts in bulk at one time. If that happens, the USA will be broken.
The Russian military has all by itself exposed the reality of its own incompetence both in command, control and equipment.
@@MSDGroup-ez6zk Russian exports HAVE plunged. They’re not delivering promised products and no one is placing orders for new ones. These customers are going elsewhere. Why would they ever come back?
Australian sarcasm .. gotta love it
Hi Perun. Thank you for making Sundays more exciting
no worries. I'm just glad I found a community that find arms transfer data exciting!
@@PerunAU have you considered going into other sites like Odysee?
@@PerunAU Definitely. I love your content.
@@PerunAU we may be a niche audience but we are global
My wife still hasn't figured out why it takes me so long to make a simple pot of coffee on Sundays,...
"Weld quality so bad it is indistinguishable from fire damage" - awesome.
The difference between a Russian weld and fire damage is about 2 weeks.
And yet they managed to destroy challengers, leopards and abrahams.
@@PeaShooter33 Of course they can, every once in awhile. Western tanks aren't invincible. That doesn't mean that they are bad.
Bad is when the whole thing bursts into flames at the slightest provocation and then explodes spectacularly, vaporizing its crew. Western tanks rarely do that. Russian tanks do it so often it has become a meme.
@@PeaShooter33 Incapacitate, not destroy.
@@PeaShooter33 That mostly hit a massive stack of mines, but I have seen many more alive people emerge from a leopard wreck then from any russian tank having lost its turret .. no wait, I have seen nobody emerge from such tanks!
India's that kid who grew up poor and guying in second hand stores and charity shops but got an education and a job and can now offer to buy good quality products so is seeing Boris at the charity shop much less often and is visiting Pierre's boutique more often.
13:49 This graph does a good job of showing a reason (among many) why I like Perun’s work so much. The scale is reflective of the data. It isn’t cropped and zoomed to make negligible changes look enormous for sensationalism’s sake.
Nothing can undermine your faith in a source of information quite like seeing something that indicates they think you’re really, really stupid and want to exploit that.
Did you appreciated part where he compared data from 2 years to 3?
Seems like very nice subtle way to create tiny bit of sensationalism by adjusting data towards your point instead of deducing it other way around :)
@@antermilov And Perun called out the different timespans
"T-90 is better suited to this war" is certainly a face saving way of saying "T-14 requires imported tech we can't produce". I do wonder how much of Russia's coasting on it's soviet legacy comes from the oligarchy strip mining their economy. It's rather difficult to keep pace when most of your R&D money gets spent on London townhouses, German superyachts and Italian villas. Not that you can really blame them, there's no point in reinvesting in your business when the government or a better connected oligarch can just take it from you at any time.
And they still have the idea of conquering Europe
They seem to have problems to mass produce their most recent developments in general. Not only the T-14, AFAIK Russia has also made only a few dozen Su-57.
@@rabiatorthegreat6163The last number I saw was 10 that were hypothetically capable of flight. With no evidence for the majority of them
@@rabiatorthegreat6163 Shhh! Nobody is supposed to know that. Russia hasn't used those systems because they're "holding back" -not because they don't have a single operational unit ... roughly a decade on from their introduction.
@@rabiatorthegreat6163 From the MBT-70 to the LCS the US hasn't done any better. What's your point?
Just started a 16 hour shift, thank you Perun
If you like believing in fantasy stories keep listening. If you want to know what’s actually going on look somewhere else.
You work for Nike?
@@remicaron3191 like where?
Looks like someone's starting his 16 hour shift here too
@@remicaron3191 the good ol' "do your own research"
I mean, an April 1 video about the military capacity of Super Earth would be a fun digression, IMO...
The Imperium of Mankind defense industrial basilico and its procurement challenges
the loss of avalon creek and what that means for the Federation of Super Earth in the long term.
Dyson Sphere procurement strategies vs Ring World competition.
Imagine Perun writing a R/HFY story.
Dude's expressed some interest in late 19th century Austro-Hungarian naval procurement...
I used to work in heavy engineering (power stations). Turbine overhauls were planned with 14 days of 12 hour shifts using highly skilled labour. Then they had 4 days off. Without fail. Whenever we extended the 12 hour period there was always a costly mistake.
From any perspective, the Ukraine War will go down as a Pyrrhic victory (or loss). The damage done on both sides will take generations to overcome. Even if Russia manages to extract itself without further damage, win or lose, it has managed to cripple itself severely. In many ways, this was the last gasp of the Soviet Union. When the USSR collapsed, the West thought we had miraculously dodged a bullet, which would have been a major war with the USSR. Apparently, we did not, at least not entirely. Perhaps the Imperial Russia/USSR/Russia epoch will finally end once the USSR generation has died off. The parallels with Hitler are unavoidable. Adoph was driven by the feeling that Germany had given up in WWI when it should have continued, so we got WWII (I know it was way more complicated than that, but go along with it for now). Putin is driven by the sense that the USSR should never have collapsed and has done everything he can to reestablish it. They say history may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.
Sorry but did you say that Russia will collapse as a state or its imperial ambitions? Its used interchangebly these days , hope you will clearify, thanks.
That observation has some poignant truths, but the overall truth you seem to be missing is that both Ukraine and Russia were maneuvered into this in a strategy dating back to Bill Clinton being President, explicitly to kill as many people as possible by conventional means, before going with WMD.
The current war is simply being used as an experimental lab to test human creativity and endurance to see the results; this is why small quantities of Western weapons are introduced.
"Would you like to play a game?"
@@u2beuser714 I am no prophet. I think Russia will survive but in a greatly diminished condition. So far, its military has benefited from the huge inventory of USSR armaments. I suspect that will be so depleted that rearming will be a bigger challenge than they will be able to do in less than a couple of decades. Their education system has fallen apart and their population is aging out rapidly. This war has driven out some of their most educated young men and I suspect many will never return. Their problems with alcoholism are almost pandemic. Their international armaments business has almost collapsed and not just because they are focused on Ukraine. This war has changed their profile internationally. I would not be the least surprised if they ended up losing territory to the Chinese, who may be the ultimate beneficiaries of the Ukraine war, but they have their own problems. The CCP has already indicated their desire to regain lands they lost to Russia after WWII. Somehow Russia ends up with a Czar no matter how much they try to change their fate. If they weren't so belligerent, I might even feel sorry for them.
@@u2beuser714 For many Russian politician the two seem to be intertwined. And for them it would be horror if Russia decent to the status of French or Great Britain. Of course those countries are still doing fine after the loss of their world empire although they can still play imperial in niche places of their former empire. And most European countries have been empire at at least local level and are still prospering.
The problem is Russian politicians need to learn to wheel and deal along with the foreign counterparts in foreign affairs instead of bullying them around. But that might mentally be a step too far leaving them hanging in simple real politics.
wrong
„Weld quality so bad, it is difficult to distinguish from fire damage“
Pure Australian gold
I lost it when Perun said heat death of the universe when it comes to HIMARS orders.
It took 20 years, but finally someone appreciated HIMARS! :)
@@krissteel4074 I don't think it was a question of appreciation, it was more of a question of need. US doctrine is about achieving air superiority and then rolling in with the troops. Such theatre doesn't have much of a role for HIMARS.
@@666Tomato666not really the case! They are meant to counter effective enemy artillery. We haven't really encountered that but that's not because it's not a thing our doctrine is meant to deal with. And you know what? They worked like GANGBUSTERS for it, so we did well.
@@666Tomato666artillery supremacy
Funnest line so far....
Curiously enough, today I've decided to cut down on UA-cam a lot. Nonsense will be reduced to near zero.
But nonsense is not a concept even existing in the same dimension with this channel's content.
Thank you, Perun. Much love from Bulgaria and see you next week.
Out of curiosity, do you know much about the Bulgarian arms industry? How much of its manufacturing is creating products developed from the old soviet designs?
@@MarcosElMalo2 Bulgarian arms industry is huge, especially when compared to its size.
@@DerDop Thank god your on NATO's side.
Typically Ukraine supporters do that now they’ve realised Ukraine and nato is getting clapped
@@lukeneill1568 isnt russia well on its way to run out of its massive soviet stockpile in a few years? maybe should have stuck to the 3 days time plan instead of 3 years?
After stiffing India on the SU-57, I don't see anybody else financing Russian weapons development.
Given the recent drone strike deep into Russian territory, I can imagine that the reputation of Russian air defense system is going to take another major hit.
I don't necessarily agree with that.
Russia has so much ground to cover to protect themselves against drones that they need a crazy number of air defense systems to take care of it, especially if the drones are flying low.
So russia has to place their air defense where they believe it's needed - and they will continue to get it wrong since Ukraine will continue to strike a diverse set of changing targets.
@@Irthex That sounds very logical, but you're assuming reputation is strictly logical.
Take it you've not seen the Patriot Batteries getting obliterated, Bradley Park... or the near extinct Leopard Tanks burning
@@Irthexthey originate all from a relativly small border with ukraine. Protect that and the entirety of russia is protected.
Russia does not need end point protection if it all originates from a small geographical area, and for anything it's air defence misses it has a major airforce that can intercept anything that pierces that screen and is on it's way deep into russias territory.
Russia is failing spactacularly in both parts of that defence.
@@maryginger4877 And with good reason. I'm sorry to tell you, but your government seem to be feeding you lies, my russian friend.
How about using your time and ressources to better conditions for the russian people instead of attacking ukranians?
How nice of your gaming PC to provide us with an example of the effects of postponing recapitalization too much ❤😂
You know the saying “the shoemaker’s children go barefoot”? The procurement analyst forgot to procure anything for himself. (There’s also the saying, “the shoes of the fisherman’s wife are some jive-ass slippers”. But now that I think on it, it’s the title of a song by Charles Mingus, not an actual saying.)
@@MarcosElMalo2‘Haitian Fight Song’ actually slots in nicely with events there this month.
Kuat Drive Yards aproves this message. We should buy more Star Destroyers.
Also make them irrationally bigger each generation! With super lasers!
Can we get some more with the shield generators on the very tip top of the bridge?
My mistress thinks those are the coolest looking ones.
Incom are like “Pfeh, Star Destroyers. One of our X-Wings blew up the Death Star!”
Can we get a custom order of Star Destroyers that come with railings?
@@pll3827and at some point we take an old iteration to stick a super laser on instead of the newest and it's entirely not because Disney already had an old model to edit and was too lazy to make the right thing despite being a multi billion dollar company
Congrats Perun again you have outdone yourself and that for two cosectutive years in 104 weeks. Impressive stuff
My work efficiency drops badly on Sunday afternoons ..... I'm too busy pondering puzzling parts of Perun's Power Point Presentations 😵💫
Nice 7 word alliteration - could have put "preoccupied" for a score of 8
@@andrewharrison8436 Andrew's alliterative accolade award advice advanced accordingly amid afternoon amusements.
Sunday's PPPP. 🥰
It's after midnight, I'm meant to be asleep and Perun has dropped a new video,... I'll sleep in the grave..
Same
Perun: "this episode contains data"
Me: (heavy breathing intensifies)
Aw man; I missed the heavy breathing meme. An underused classic. 👏
Impressively clear, complete and succinct presentation, coloured with brilliant, hilarious remarks. 10/10! 👏👏👏💙💛
There are some observations to be had. In the 1990s Russia exported the Su-27SK/UBK and Su-30MKK to China and then the Su-30MKI to India and Sukhoi then went on a major export sphree leaving MiG and its incomplete MiG-29M behind in the dust. However, China eventually got the Su-27 (now called J-11) and started producing enhanced versions of it and the engines and avionics to go with it, and has less demand for Russian equipment. India to a lesser degree has achieved some form of self-sufficiency on the Su-30MKI. With that, one can easily see that no other client will purchase such large quantities and Sukhoi was not particularly good at marketing beyond the big government-to-government orders.
Another issue, the Russian Sukhois are still made using dated and inefficient production methods in the 1990s and 2000s but it seems that they have upgraded their facilities since then. Despite this, the Chinese appear to have much better industrial organisation and can probably produce the J-11 (Su-27), J-15 (Su-33) and J-16 (Su-30) at much lower cost than the Russian one with a far greater selection of weapons and technology. Lucky for Sukhoi and the Russian government that China isn't pitching its Sino-Flankers for sale.
Keep up the good work PowerPoint man 🙌
"Weld quality so bad it is difficult to distinguish from fire damage". Damn, this is why I watch these videos. The lovely gems of 'OMG, he totally went there!' Nicely done.
Russian weakness in chips and software is badly hampering the export potential as latest generation of weapons get hi-tech. Relatively new entrants like Turkey [drones], China [aircraft, vehicles and munitions], and India [rocket launcher, artilery guns and radars]. Simply being cheap is no longer an advantage either.
Ever since I as a teenager started reading Terry Pratchett I have followd the motto"Follow the money"! With statistics and plenty of datapoints to go that is exactly what you do here and I love it!!!
This is the kind of content that makes me want to explore the YT channels; Good job and very well narrated. Looking forward for your future posts.
Have a look at fern....green background with a f......only got about 20 homemade docs on there but is very good content for only a couple of ppl 👍
Definitely didn’t skip straight past the video for the gaming update. RIP old PC o7
7 years of service (with me bolting in new bits occasionally) - it was time.
@@PerunAU I have an old 1995 first generation Pentium still working. But it can't play modern games. It's some old Japanese brand (Toshiba? I'm not sure), it weighs half a ton.
Watch South Korea too. The K2 tank and K9 self propelled howitzer seem good enough for Poland. And Poland wants it's equipment to be superior to Russia's now and for the next 10 plus years.
South Korea is chad nation. They've got some great things going on with both their defense industry and their ship manufacturing.
I always love the "it wasn't as bad as reported, it's much worse" switcheroo.
The US and European nations have actively bought out former Soviet clients, buying their inventories and shipping those to Ukraine….. replacing the equipment from their own inventory. This has significantly reduced Russia’s client base.
This certainly is also part of it..
Yes and no.
Nobody sells what they want to keep. The fact that those countries are willing to sell of their old Russia/Soviet equipment & replace it with western stuff -rather than new Russian equivelents, is telling.
"Even worse, they had lost it to the French"😂😂 QUELLE DOMMAGE!!
Dommage emmotionel;)
😂🎉
Hon hon hon
@@Paludion Merci!
French artillery. especially Ceasars, proved to be quite good, why not
It took me until Wednesday to watch this - and it's OG Perun charts! I shouldn't have delayed.
Kinda wild how one of the things I'm looking forward to on the weekend these couple of years is a PowerPoint presentation with graphs and numbers.
Seeing an 80s era Bradley take out a t-90 is never a good look
Mr. Perun, could we have a detailed analysis of how Sweden and Finland joining NATO changed the situation in Baltic Sea area? After all, it became NATO pond now, with only two Russian enclaves clinging to it.
I'm not sure there's enough to talk about there. NATO lake, vs Russia that wasted most of their military capacity on Ukraine.
Those exclaves are really interesting though. I wish we had more data about that little forward military base...
NATO has a much longer border to defend, while gain sweet FA.
@@maryginger4877 NATO no longer takes russia seriously as a military power. They may say so in the media, but for the most part NATO leaders are laughing at the russian military.
@@maryginger4877 Both NATO and Russia have a longer border to defend, now. However, NATO's membership and resources have grown with that expansion. Conversely, Russia's economic and military resources are falling as I type. That's why it's easy for the Russian Volunteer Corp and The Legion of Freedom, to conduct raids that last for days. Rusdia is over stretched.
@@dpelpal If russia is a joke, why create an entire alliance to counter it?
My goodness, Perun, your ability to comprehensively and concisely convey such a wealth of information *with context* is astounding. Thank you so much for sharing your passion with the world. 👊🏼
The world at large has witnessed Western hardware racking up ridiculous kill ratios against Soviet and Russian hardware across multiple wars since 1991. There is an old saying that "Any publicity is good publicity", but that definitely does NOT apply to marketing weapons.
I mean, the problem with tossing turrets is you advertise everything hitting the tank as a tank buster
50:00 It's even worse than that. It's not just the workers that need breaks, the factory machines do too. It can be hard or impossible to do preventative maintenance (oil checks, lubrication, cleaning, inspecting welds, etc.) while a machine is still running. Worse, when things do break, there's an incentive to do hasty patch jobs instead of a proper repair, leading to more problems in the future.
The desire to "maximize productive", ironically, is very dangerous if you want long term productivity.
As a general rule, a nominal max production rate is 2 full shifts/week, as a general rule. Anything beyond that should either be temporary or have a stupendously reliable production line designed from day 1 to support continuous operation.
Nothing wrong with trying to maximize production as long as you do a proper analysis of the factors of production. The real danger comes in when you try it hit quotas
"Kyiv in 3 days". I'm not sure the russians are capable of long term planning.
39:08 big boi India mentioned, so here i give a footnote for the small boi VN:
VN military itself is looking up to China (& India)'s self reliant efforts, alongside the sourcing diversification to Israel, South Korea and others suppliers with technological connections to Soviet legacy tech tree
so Russian arms export to VN is expected to shrink too
at best i could only see VN buying more Su-30 (maybe Su-30SME) to bolster our multirole-maritime fighter fleet
because unfortunately 20:40 VN has very few choice in building an fighter fleet on budget
also 18:56 one dirty uppercut to 152mm fanboys out there (me included)
good news for the 152mm: VN & probably a number of 3rd world militaries are still using the caliber and is considering expanding production related to the 152mm (first the shells, then the barrels)
still bad new for Russia's 152mm: now their potential 152mm customers are self-reliant, they will lose these customers too (looking to North Korea producing & selling 152mm shells to Russia)
We like you guys and support your efforts in the SCS but selling F16 or F35 is a touch far
Su-34 and Su-57, attack/transport helis.
Missile Frigates/Detroyers and S400/S500.
Who is VN?
@@ulfosterberg9116Vietnam
Perun: I’m sorry but we’re going to have a lot of numbers, dates and graphs in this video
Me @ 7 am on a weekend: It must be illegal to be this happy
MY dad beats me worse than any arms exporter with jumper cables for watching Perun. Thank you.
Dads, gotta love em
@@leflavius_nl5370 T Minus 56 days until Mother's Day. *_Scramble!!!_*
Really happy to see this, it’s a topic I’ve been wondering about since the invasion began. I fail to see any real upside for Russia out of this in almost any timeframe.
This episode has everything that I appreciate from Perun. Quality information, qualitative and supported with data plus some jokes along the way.
Much appreciated.
If anything, Perun is underestimating the downside.
If the Ukes had collapsed in a few days then it would have been able to dictate terms at very little cost like they did in Georgia. Once that failed then it has turned into a face saving operation I guess.
@@Alan.livingstonyou seem to forget that previous operation, not "special" but "counter-terrorist" one - took Russia 10 years till "its finished" announcement. And that was against non-state entity. Do you really think they haven't planned that this one could be same length or longer?
When your only real arms exports customer is Iran, I think it's fair to say that it's not a viable business model any more. At this point it's basically Iran and Russia selling weapons to each other.
Kind of like the old Soviet “Sell scrap metal to the foundry to make tractors to sell tractors to the scrapyard”. It worked *so* well…
@@Muljinn "worked so well" when did the soviet union do that anyways? Selling tractors to scrapyard? Why?
Excellent analysis. Always pleasure to listen. Matter of fact, looking forward to each Sunday, to learn something new. Yes, Your vids are also educational for many people who had some general idea about defense industry and military. Cordial regards dear Landsman 🌞
Honestly Indi is probably at the point where it could build a decent domestic arms industry rather than import from Russia.
Soon, with China and Pakistan beside them they have no choice!
They never get out from the corruption and bureaucracy ditch.
@@ulfosterberg9116For decades the indian domestic defense industry was a monopoly of bureaucratic, inefficient and dogshit state owned enterprises, which has been broken now in recent years by the private sector due to liberalisation of defense sector. And if you look at the numbers the private sector is getting pretty good at shafting the public sector merely in a decades time.
@@surajbiradar9827good times ahead?
@@chilbiyito looks like it. Historically the pattern is clear, the government leaves the sector = that sector becomes much better. For example it took the indian government 50 years to realise that they can't run an airline. So after trashing it for years, they sold it in 2021 to the same industrial group from whom they bought it originally.
Once again a peerless episode. Very interested to hear more about US, British and Korean arms industries
Keep up your good work. Your in depth analysis and dry wit is appreciated. Mostly your in depth analysis.
Very interesting presentation; I admit I expected these results after at leat April of the invasion year for mostly the provided reasons and it's nice to see a data set that verifies this.
Eagerly anticipating your next presentation and thank you for all your work.
Russia only needs its weapons for ‘right now’….but if you are say India, can you guarantee that spare parts will be available in 5, or 10 years as sanctions bite harder?…and unlike hydrocarbons, manufactured goods are not ‘fungible’….
What you mean "bite harder"? After the war ends the sanctions will be lifted even Tony blinken said it
I don't think you realize how much of these so-called Russian weapons India manufactures in-house. India doesn't just buy arms. It buys/builds entire arms supply chains. Also, stuff whose spares dry up can just be replaced by Indian designed replacements for the entire sub-system. I mean, India is upgrading their Su-30 MKI from 4th gen to 4.5th gen standard all by themselves. They only tried to negotiate with Russia for newer model of engines (to be produced in India).
At 17:30 Perun talks about "marketing" aka reputation. I think Ukrainians did a good job in spoiling the marketing for many Russian systems by interviews in which they clearly compared and valued the western systems more than the Russian stuff. e.g. Crew Survivability or Gunsights or Environmental Awareness. And we all know what popping T72-90 Turrets do to marketing.😁
Absolutely beautifully crafted dude. I’ve been guesstimating that something similar has been happening but didn’t have the numbers. This will be so much easier to communicate to family and friends.
A rather disturbing observation one could make after seeing the data presented here is that the decision to invade Ukraine was influenced, at least to some degree, by falling Russian weapons sales to other countries. Likewise, the French decision to ramp up its recent rhetoric on Russia might correlate with a desire to boost French weapons manufacture and exports. Related to this, the average MAGA voter should consider that 'taxpayer donations to Ukraine' will result in increased weapons sales to other countries that completely outweigh those 'donations'. The US will make a proverbial killing from this war. It is all rather nefarious and macabre.
Yes, Ukraine is a weird area where America’s ideals, political interests, and economic interests align with a nice opportunity to spite Putin.
Which makes it even weirder how many seek to squander it.
Just wanted to say thanks for your powerpoints, this got uploaded at a perfect time when I'm feeling down, im sure ill forget all my worries once this hour is over
It always stuns me how badly Russia fails at things. This is happening to a country that used to have the most technically superior space program. Yikes.
Was it “most technically superior”? They didn’t get to the moon. They didn’t build re-usable spacecraft. They didn’t design anything close to GPS.
they had the best space programme when they started doing cause no one had invested in there
This happens because everyone smart in Russia either gets killed or flees to the west
You appear confused. The T72 is not a tank, but rather an orbital launch system.
Turrets fly into the stratosphere.
The closest they'll ever get to heaven... @@stefansekulic7903
@@stefansekulic7903 No, that's incorrect. Russian tanks even fail at that undertaking miserably just at 5% between top and bottom. But they excel in making a very nice New Years fireworks all season long. Caveat: Soem ukrainian soldiers need to use the same failing orbital launch system.
Thanks again for another very illuminating PPT presentation.
Fantastic vid this week, *even better* than your usual. I’ve listened through twice and I expect I’ll hit this one at least once more. Nicely done sir.
> No one ever* got fired for buying HIMARS
* - that is starting from mid-2022
Someone got buried after HIMARS being fired.
- also starting from mid-2022
Damn i would love for these to be uploaded as podcasts on Spotify
truu
I DID indeed, as aways, enjoy your utterings. I even feel enlightened and smart. Well, relatively, within reason. Thx.
This is one of your better essays. Among pretty good company. Well documented, thoughtful, data driven. I have no idea how you manage to get such deep and one would think secret information, but I sure appreciate it. And will continue to support your efforts financially, when I can.
Brilliant as always my friend ! Very proud that you are a fellow Aussie and your great sense of humor reflects that national tradition very well indeed ! Your obvious intellectual prowess makes you a fine ambassador for the best Australia can offer the world in these dark times !
India would rather build its own arms these days. Russia's exports were always going to crater but the war accelerated that.
The key there is "licensing."
It's like "franchising," when it comes to marketing. And just as uniformity and quality control of consistency is the number-one rule in successful franchising, so in licensing.
Thank god for the internet, Thank Perun for raising our IQs beyond "oooo kitty cat!"
Here is another channel to help you raise your IQ beyond "ooo kitty cat!" as you said it:-
ISSAC ARTHUR
He is the Perun of futurism.
You have the best videos. A minimum of politics, and only open sources that anyone can check. And a bit of dry humor and very few claims of clairvoyance. Thanks!
This is all politics. One can talk politics without preaching an ideology. That is methodology 101
Thank you Perun. I really enjoyed these spreadsheets. 😊
Yes, that content is pretty educational.
@@090giver090 yes
@@090giver090 He just said he likes spreadsheets.... geeze man
Yes, thanks Perun!
I am your regular viewer of your channel. I find your videos really helpful and insightful. Thanks!
Analysis of defence export industry data sounds a very dry topic.
And it is.
But not with our secret added ingredient- PERUN!
The GOAT of Power Point makes me warm and fuzzy inside and thirsting for more!
Huzzah!
When you get stoned and watch perun, and zone out. And then you get to watch an old episode that feels like new content😂
Nothing quite like packing a bowl to arms transfer statistics 😂
Perun while getting high is peek af
I do love PowerPoint and spreadsheets... ❤
My reading is that Russian military production since 2014 is at capacity (for domestic customer), and in overdrive since 2022. Foreign sales are luxury of peace time.
Yeah, it's like he forgot that Russia is currently in a war and that everything is being thrown at Ukraine.
Which is why reading these brainlets get 2k votes on stupid comments about 'ruzzia' arms collapse is giving me a migraine. Even if video provides some information, the community is toxic and drives propaganda.
Besides, his "data" is wrong anyway. Military contracts especially now are disclosed more than ever. Serbia for example is WAITING on several contracts and wants more stuff, but is unable to do so due to war and sanctions. But still received Helicopters for civs service at least. Perun haven't mention that.
All in all a good 2/10 on this topic. He shows alot of misinformation and fail to conceptioalise the current situation.
@@ickyconcrete5370 He mentioned internal consumption as potentially commanding so much materiel that foreign buyers begin to wonder if their orders will ship on time.
Yeah, it's like you forgot to turn on your hearing aid.
@@afterthesmash Where else are they going to go for equipment? Its like you forgot to turn on your brain..
@@ickyconcrete5370 " it's like he forgot "... please watch the video before commenting.
It's true that russian arms exports have plummeted. But arms *imports* have surged! They need all the prosthetics they can get!😂
That’s cold hahahaha
I am only 15 minutes in, but arms exports need both seller and buyer.
So far it's very focused on why people aren't buying, but there is also a "Russia unwilling to sell" factor.
Edit: Diversion covers that.
Exactly. Are you going to be a repeat customer if the business fails to deliver?
"You're only as good as your last bad day(s)". So true.
When I was in the Navy, we had a saying - "One 'Oh, Sh-t!'" wipes out 10 "Attaboys!".
Negatives always seem to leave a more lasting impact on perception and belief than positives.
19:19 the fact that ship sales are so relatively stable is somewhat surprising to me given that the Russian navy is currently being sunk by what amounts to RC canoes.
More like a RC SeaDoo than a canoe
Navy orders have an even longer tail, we're talking decades here.
Another great talk. Perun, thanks for your insight and effort.
You'd have to question the sanity of anyone looking to buy a Star Destroyer considering the things get regularly destroyed by small groups of poorly trained saboteurs or a single starfighter pilot on a revenge quest
On the other hand, a single aging Mon Calamari cruiser is apparently enough to destroy the entire First Order fleet as long as you don't mind it being a kamikaze run
This might be an unusual request but I would love a video on Mexicos military capabilities, economics and defense strategies
You probably should have pointed out Indonesia's case in the late 1960s and early 70s, when a sudden breakup of the previously cozy relationship with the Soviet Union led to many Soviet systems rapidly turning unserviceable, and the Indonesian Air Force in particular had to sell off their MiG-21s (barely half a generation behind the state of the art, if that) and go back to the primarily World War II vintage aircraft they had been operating beforehand. Even when they got back to jets, they had to step back one generation back to ex-Australian Avon Sabres at first. Something similar might happen with some erstwhile Russian defence customers in the coming years, as you've pointed out.
On a tangential note, the current Indonesian defence establishment was already playing Russia and Ukraine against each other to get lower costs for the maintenance and upgrade of systems like their Su-27 and Su-30 fighters before the invasion (especially the engines with their notoriously short service lives). Now it might be looking to China instead, and then only as a stopgap until new F-15EXs arrive to replace the Sukhois in the big fat long-range fighter role.
making data sheets interesting sound like dark magic, but i love it, good job
Excellent comment too.
Would add that artillery shells are made in a wide price range, especially the high-tech long distance guided shells Russia not really produces. Same for short distance . ground-to-ground rocket systems.
Other point is that competition is built up again in many countries that stopped development and production since the breakdown of Soviet Union 30 year ago such as Germany and countries entering the market with successful products, for example Türkiye, South Korea
They are loosing India slowly since years. That was the country that saved their defense industry in the 90s, now this is a way bigger trend. That will be the death blow, or they go full North Korea to sustain their industry. We will see. Meanwhille number 2, 3 and 4 spots in the global weapon sellers will be a big competition every year and it seems that in that categories the West still have many good things to sell.
"It feels like Lockheed Martin has presold every vehicle to come off the line from now until heat death of the Universe" made me laugh. I love you! o/
It’s nice to have opinions, but when they are confirmed with Perun hard data, well, that gives you confidence to share those opinions.
"Uncle Sam's Munitions Mart"
I heard it in caps, like Walmart or Home Depot. FUND IT.
It would need to be NAFTAmart if it’s to be competitive. Uncle Sam would be the house brand.
Anyone want to buy a Lada?
Pretty clear to me before I watched that this was two fold; number one, Russia realizing they need their own gear and not selling as much. The bigger issue, is that potential buyers are seeing Russia hilariously fail to conquer a country smaller than Moscow (not literally) and saying "Yeah, I don't want that trash gear they're using."