TORM Isn't Howard Marks Biggest Position, It's His Biggest Mistake

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  • Опубліковано 9 лют 2025

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  • @openorigami
    @openorigami Місяць тому +40

    I just wanted to ask Sven to analyze TORM after seeing the bald investor talking about it. And then here is this video, which highlights Sven's extraordinary medium thought-reading skills. Thanks Sven, great video as always!

    • @stanislavgritciuk337
      @stanislavgritciuk337 Місяць тому +4

      Bald investor just follows the script to generate videos. Often it is a very shallow analysis

    • @laciepyu255
      @laciepyu255 Місяць тому +1

      ​@@stanislavgritciuk337 Sven is different, of course. 😂

    • @sdavidleigh6642
      @sdavidleigh6642 Місяць тому +1

      sorry who is the bald guy?

    • @openorigami
      @openorigami Місяць тому

      @@sdavidleigh6642 Apologies, but for the courtesy of Sven, I do not want to advertise another youtuber's channel here (besides, you can easily find him on your own). While both him and Sven are highly-analytic, I would 100% to go out for a dinner with Sven. By the way Sven, if you read this: in case you ever visit Vienna, you are my guest for a fancy dinner.

  • @Dimitris_1987
    @Dimitris_1987 Місяць тому +9

    I went to Peiraus with my dad one day, he has a friend from an old shipping family of Chios. This guy doesn’t do shipping but his cousin is a famous shipowner. So I asked him “what does this guy do so successfully?”. And he replied that every week he calls all the shipyards in Southeast Asia and just asks them how busy they are. That’s it, he can even ask the janitor of the shipyard and get a fair answer. When he knows that they are not busy at all, he orders them to build a ship. 90% of the time he’s managed to sell the ship while building. For at least 3x his initial investment.

  • @smw11
    @smw11 15 днів тому

    I've entered TORM in summer this year , when it was in the high 30s, and while I'm a pretty seasoned trader (30 years in the option market for big firms)
    I got out after a small loss, when a comodity trader explained me the relation between oil price and shipping companies.
    Your explaination is really great and adds a lot to my understanding on shipping companies.
    Just subscribed and will follow your chanel religiously 👍

  • @mikestanmore2614
    @mikestanmore2614 Місяць тому +2

    I saw the thumbnail and immediately thought, "But isn't Howard a distressed debt guy?"
    Thanks Sven, very enlightening.

  • @Barzottone
    @Barzottone Місяць тому +1

    thank you Sven. I was one of the investors asking for a Torm analysis. Now I have a more clear scenario around this company. I always follow you with interest.

  • @Maverick7642
    @Maverick7642 24 дні тому +135

    I do believe Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid economy crisis, and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Unequivocally, the collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich

    • @Alden457
      @Alden457 24 дні тому

      I do not disagree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such execution are usually carried out by investment experts with experience since the 08' crash

    • @Christian67337
      @Christian67337 24 дні тому

      The issue is people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt. Ideally, advisors are reps for investing jobs, and at first-hand encounter, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since 2020 just after the pandemic to date.

    • @Scarlett34568
      @Scarlett34568 24 дні тому

      How can I reach this advisers of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?

    • @Christian67337
      @Christian67337 24 дні тому

      Her name is “Aileen Gertrude Tippy” Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

    • @Scarlett34568
      @Scarlett34568 24 дні тому

      Thank you so much, this is exactly what I needed right now. I wrote her an email and am waiting for her reply. Hopefully, she responds soon.

  • @GNBcorporal
    @GNBcorporal Місяць тому +3

    I am a stng investor which is also a clean tanker company. Keep in mind they transport products (diesel kerosene etc.) not crude oil. I got in during COVID i think now is a bit to late in the cycle to get in. Like sven always says you need to get in when things look ugly.

    • @DDGisme
      @DDGisme 2 дні тому

      I am in STNG and TORM and they both have been disasters. If Sven says you need to get in when things look ugly, well they are looking ugly now and they looked ugly before. And the future looks pretty ugly as well. I have gotten burned by shipping stocks in the past and this will be my last foray into these cash sucking monstrosities.

  • @guy7018
    @guy7018 Місяць тому +1

    Thanks Sven. I have small positions in a few other shippers: KNOP and SBLK and found this very helpful to understand the general risks in the shipping sector. I have stayed away from TORM because it seemed to be good of a div to be true. You did a great concise job explaining why someone like Howard Marks is heavily invested due to a debt play that went BK. No one else covered that info. I really appreciate your awesome work and guidance.

    • @kasparskokins963
      @kasparskokins963 Місяць тому +1

      Howard Marks always buys debt, Oaktree deals in buying debt securities, not stocks, so at the time of buying Torm debt they knew what Torm future value would be.

  • @Bjarke98
    @Bjarke98 Місяць тому +9

    Torm is not a crude ("dirty") tanker company, but a product tanker company (diesel etc.). Different supply-demand dynamics and rates.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Місяць тому +6

      thanks for the input but still the same shipping market forces apply!

    • @kasparskokins963
      @kasparskokins963 Місяць тому

      Nop

    • @kasparskokins963
      @kasparskokins963 Місяць тому +9

      The main differences between a product tanker and a crude oil tanker lie in their design, cargo type, and operational use:
      1. Cargo Type:
      Product Tanker: These tankers are designed to carry refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other chemicals. They typically transport products that have undergone refining processes and may include various grades of oil.
      Crude Oil Tanker: These vessels are specifically designed to transport unrefined crude oil from extraction sites to refineries. The cargo is typically raw and has not been processed.
      2. Design and Construction:
      Product Tanker: Product tankers often have multiple cargo tanks to segregate different types of refined products, allowing them to carry several types of cargo simultaneously. They are generally smaller than crude oil tankers and have a more complex piping system to manage different products.
      Crude Oil Tanker: Crude oil tankers are usually larger, with fewer but bigger cargo tanks. They are built to handle the high viscosity and corrosive nature of crude oil. The design focuses on maximizing cargo capacity.
      3. Operational Use:
      Product Tanker: These vessels typically operate in shorter routes and are more involved in coastal shipping and regional markets. They may also serve as shuttle tankers, delivering products to various ports.
      Crude Oil Tanker: Crude oil tankers often operate on long-haul routes, transporting crude oil from oil-producing regions (like the Middle East or North America) to refineries located in different parts of the world.
      4. Size:
      Product Tanker: Generally smaller than crude oil tankers, with sizes ranging from 5,000 to 60,000 deadweight tons (DWT).
      Crude Oil Tanker: These are larger vessels, with sizes ranging from 50,000 DWT to over 500,000 DWT (in the case of Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs).
      Summary
      In summary, product tankers are designed for transporting refined petroleum products and often have multiple tanks for different cargoes, while crude oil tankers are built for transporting unrefined crude oil, usually in larger quantities and with fewer cargo compartments.

    • @laciepyu255
      @laciepyu255 Місяць тому +4

      ​@@Value-InvestingThat's not correct. Putting a minimum of expertise into your videos would greatly help...

  • @tarek30999
    @tarek30999 Місяць тому +1

    I have to say that I look forward to your daily videos. Good stock selection for review. Torm happen to be one stock I bought some time back for which I could have benefited from such a review.

  • @potomacXX
    @potomacXX Місяць тому +4

    Shipping is a great business for retail investors. No reason to analyze demand expect where it is now. Its so unpredictable for future. Analyzing supply is fairly straight forward. Long term follows the supply, short term follows the demand. Volatility is high. Companies are easy to analyze with simple structures. Companies are so small that bigger investors have hard time getting out of equity when they want. What more can you ask as a small private investor?

  • @daudkaun3807
    @daudkaun3807 Місяць тому

    Excellent analysis. Excellently puts into context the biggest picture for the given yield. Market is betting on a mean reversion for company profits.

  • @KevinGuy-j5i
    @KevinGuy-j5i Місяць тому +1

    Thanks Sven. I now know not to touch shipping companies at all

  • @tocaciulevente992
    @tocaciulevente992 Місяць тому

    Thank you Sven!
    You give us value always an easy understandable way! I really appreciate it!
    I made my “bet” on ZIM, fortunately I timed well the market but I found out that it was a risky move.
    Thank you for explaining the business!

  • @whatsmynoise
    @whatsmynoise Місяць тому

    Thank you Sven!

  • @coffeemilk4080
    @coffeemilk4080 Місяць тому

    Thank you very much for your analysis about this stock. This is much more informative than many other analyses which basically explain the numbers in the hindsight.

  • @laciepyu255
    @laciepyu255 Місяць тому +5

    Valuing Torm with showing dirty tanker rates, he really knows the stock. 😂

  • @振り返ろう顧みよう検証しよう

    Due to increased competition, the product tanker industry is also facing intensified competition, but reduced earnings can be offset by significantly lowering the dividend payout ratio. If new shares are issued and diluted, it can be assumed that dividends will also be diluted. The increase in debt from the purchase of second-hand tankers will be balanced by reducing dividends, and in the meantime, the company may consider increasing its stock price. By recovering the stock price to some extent and saving on dividends, the company may consider share buybacks to raise the stock price or resume high dividends later. In any case, this industry requires regular replacement of tankers, resulting in high fixed costs, so reducing dividends and recovering the stock price to a certain extent is necessary to use equity financing as a means of raising funds. Even if the stock price rises, further dilution by issuing additional shares would make the company unattractive to investors. Therefore, I believe that the time for share buybacks to reclaim the newly issued shares will come a few years after the debt is reduced and the financial situation improves.What do you think?

  • @popeyeSailor-e5v
    @popeyeSailor-e5v Місяць тому

    @6:30 👌 Thank u for making this point.

  • @yoyoma2227
    @yoyoma2227 Місяць тому +4

    A video on Melexis NV would be great

  • @WealthyChronicle
    @WealthyChronicle 26 днів тому

    Anyone else notice how high the dividends are but the risk seems just as high? 🤔 Sounds like a rollercoaster that could crash at any moment!

  • @tragicslip
    @tragicslip Місяць тому +6

    ships aren't being built, and older ships are being scrapped. ships too expensive to build is slowing new build rate. i think the sector is interesting.

  • @trevorramos8616
    @trevorramos8616 Місяць тому +1

    Great analysis! Thank you

  • @maverick7134
    @maverick7134 Місяць тому +2

    Thanks for the video. What about Lockheed Martin?

  • @BarsonlineOrg2013
    @BarsonlineOrg2013 Місяць тому +2

    Hello Sven, great analysis! Would be really great, if you could look into Cosco, which has also a nice dividend and OWNS port infrastructure all over the world (from Peru, to Rotterdam and Hamburg) and enjoys the next 100 years heavy political and economical tailwinds from China.....from my point of view, it is like owning a part of the tax on Chinese exports.... :) thx!

  • @omarpetrillo9389
    @omarpetrillo9389 Місяць тому +4

    Sven, please can you also do a little analysis on DAC, the recent purchase of M. Pabrai? Thanks

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Місяць тому +5

      I'll check it out

    • @HrvojeVukosav-qv8uu
      @HrvojeVukosav-qv8uu Місяць тому +2

      DAC iz excellent. They will make 1B$ in the next 2-3 years. After that it would be better to sell majority of fleet and go to treasuries for next a few years because there will be so many containerships in the world fleet that it would be imposible to sail with any profit. And they will not do that and that is why price is so low

    • @max77vvxf5yvh
      @max77vvxf5yvh Місяць тому +1

      ​@HrvojeVukosav-qv8uu DAC is cheap because people don't understand how the tariffs and geopolitical disruptions work! Trump's tariffs are particularly bad for Maersk or Zim, but perfect for GSL or DAC because of different business model.

  • @konstantingeorgiev7521
    @konstantingeorgiev7521 Місяць тому +2

    Dear Sven, I believe that for a shipping company Safe Bulks is more interesting.
    Even if the yield is "just" 5,80 % :D

  • @cvigorie
    @cvigorie Місяць тому

    very insightful, thanks!

  • @HS-PGA
    @HS-PGA Місяць тому +2

    Saw an interview the other day Rick Rule he’s sitting on the sidelines now like Buffett in cash but said the oil industry right now is looking attractive.

  • @efiroozy
    @efiroozy Місяць тому

    Thankx for doing torm like . Lxu company looks interesting to analyze ✌️

  • @jayshankarchandran321
    @jayshankarchandran321 Місяць тому

    Thanks Sven

  • @ColourRevolution666
    @ColourRevolution666 Місяць тому +4

    You made mistake TORM is product tanker but you compare it with dirty tankers rates.
    Make more videos like this which stocks you think are bad then i will buy them.
    Bought small position in torm 60 shares.

  • @HS-PGA
    @HS-PGA Місяць тому

    Thank you for this

  • @yazanasad7811
    @yazanasad7811 Місяць тому

    What do you make of the 10 price rise in 1 day?

  • @jannemyllyla1223
    @jannemyllyla1223 Місяць тому

    I was checking NAT, but I would need it to drop a bit more before I buy some.

  • @savsood5102
    @savsood5102 Місяць тому

    I was thinking about investing in TORM, but the video by Sven and the unloading of some TORM stock by Howard Marks gives me pause.

  • @LammaDrama
    @LammaDrama Місяць тому

    Thorough and well-crafted analysis, as always!
    What do you think of making a video about VALE? It's at an amazing valuation PE

  • @tg6915
    @tg6915 Місяць тому +1

    Could you maybe take a look at the undervalued German stocks 1&1 Drillisch AG and Aumann AG?

  • @mariomarchl7188
    @mariomarchl7188 Місяць тому

    Why not buy the TRMD stock and a put option as well. The divdend yield finances your put option premium easily.

  • @danwesson1934
    @danwesson1934 Місяць тому +1

    Surprised UPS hasn’t been suggested. UPS and TROW have 10 percent CAGR and might could be a 10% cost on yield on 10 years. UPS looks to be on the bottom of a cycle.

  • @FrankQC100
    @FrankQC100 Місяць тому

    I've seen the same with a REIT in Canada, Slate Office REIT went bust, too much debt.

  • @yohjijames1413
    @yohjijames1413 Місяць тому +1

    Sven, i respect your view but I don’t agree that it was Marks’ biggest mistake as we don’t know what he paid for the debt. In his frequent newsletters he often talks about finding asymmetric investments. One where they can’t lose too much but can make much more. I think this may be a case. Oaktree bought the debt at a big discount, knowing the underlying assets (the ships ) were worth more AND they could operate them in an up market cycle if need be. It turned out they did get a an up cycle and have done well out of it.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Місяць тому +2

      the debt was more than $2 billion, they got half of that, and trust me, it is never the plan to operate a business when it goes bust if you are a bond holder. But yes, it might not be a mistake, just doing business for him, but it sounds better as a title, no?

  • @evarlast
    @evarlast Місяць тому

    OMG tankers is a rough business. I lost so much investing in DLNG a few years ago. I learned my lesson. Never again.

  • @Sabininho
    @Sabininho 29 днів тому

    Tanker stocks are done for now, ZIM and others have already payed the dividend and are priced in for the Middle East war. The are plenty of other good and much less riskier stocks

  • @stefand5472
    @stefand5472 Місяць тому +1

    I guess this investment will evolve way better than ADM

  • @960john
    @960john Місяць тому +1

    Thanks Sven! Btw, Danaos has a better business model and has shown to be more shareholder friendly (despite being Greek lol). They are building book value instead of paying huge dividends and recently entered the dry bulk industry, which should be less supplied and more profitable over next 3 years. Pabrai holds a small position of it. Star Bulk Carriers has also better risk/reward. But yeah, shitty industry 😂

  • @tomistenvall978
    @tomistenvall978 Місяць тому +1

    Oaktree was not the original creditor. They bought the debt for pennies per dollar and swapped it to equity.

    • @laciepyu255
      @laciepyu255 Місяць тому +7

      Like always with Sven's mostly useless videos, the useful information is in the comments.

  • @dariocasabella2744
    @dariocasabella2744 Місяць тому

    Please, update on ABF

  • @PaulSmith-zt7ix
    @PaulSmith-zt7ix Місяць тому +1

    Maybe a video with dividend etf comparison?

  • @azulsimmons1040
    @azulsimmons1040 Місяць тому +1

    This is one of those stocks that looks too good to be true.

  • @zomba4377
    @zomba4377 Місяць тому

    hey sven! please take a look at alchool stocks since they are at 10 years lows from the link of cancer to consumption of alchool and consumer trends in gen z, i recently took a position in brown forman and ambev

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Місяць тому

      interest rates impact, plus BRL for Ambev ua-cam.com/video/HJDR3A5pYBQ/v-deo.html
      ua-cam.com/video/Lr0gvEKxNM8/v-deo.html

    • @zomba4377
      @zomba4377 Місяць тому

      @@Value-Investing thanks for the reply ! you looked at them except brown forman which doesn't have accounting shananigans, strong growing brands and family owned which you could see both ways but they have a good track record

  • @lukasbrauer4887
    @lukasbrauer4887 Місяць тому +1

    You were saying exactly the same with ZIM stock, when it was at 6 USD how extremely dangerous it was and that it may go bankrupt etc. That is why I did not buy more of it and sold it with just a tiny profit of 10%. A few months later, after your great analysis, ZIM went to 27 USD. Thank you

    • @kampfzerG
      @kampfzerG Місяць тому +1

      First, take responsibility for yourself. Second, just because Risk hadn’t materialize doesnt mean it wasnt there. Same as MicroStrategy / Bitcoin, Nvidia or whatever. Yeah there is return but there is also risk.

    • @RJ-ry5qu
      @RJ-ry5qu Місяць тому +1

      Jesus bro - blaming others for your bad decision … take some responsibility ….like he said in the video - high risk high reward - timing is everything in shipping

  • @zacktube100
    @zacktube100 Місяць тому

    Is steel ugly enough yet, like NUE and STLD?

  • @marcb934
    @marcb934 Місяць тому

    Howard might know something 🤔 Or better: might have known something.

  • @Miro_L
    @Miro_L Місяць тому

    Mame, mame if sa dividendama… :)))

  • @CrystalJoy-32
    @CrystalJoy-32 Місяць тому +1

    Used to think investors lose out amid inflation, meanwhile some make profits. I also thought folks went out of business during the great depression, but some went into business. Bottom line, there's always recession for some folks, while others amass wealth gains.

    • @paultrump7630
      @paultrump7630 Місяць тому

      Right, a lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their emotions, no offense. I remember some years back, amid covid-outbreak, I needed a good boost to grow my savings, hence researched for advisors and thankfully, I came across someone of utmost qualifications. Helped a lot in growing my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $350k to approx. $1m as of today.

    • @user-nt-k91
      @user-nt-k91 Місяць тому

      how to put my money to work has been my daily thought, did my research and most suggestions pointed at the stock market, the thing is i'm an absolute newb... would you mind sharing info of the professional guiding you please?

    • @paultrump7630
      @paultrump7630 Місяць тому

      I've shuffled through a few advisors in the past, but settled with Amy Lea Kohlert. You'd most likely find her basic info on the internet, she's well established with over two decades of experience.

    • @rodneyfungus8249
      @rodneyfungus8249 Місяць тому

      You make it far too obvious.

  • @tomliu6358
    @tomliu6358 Місяць тому

    oil tank with 27%

  • @alexvech
    @alexvech Місяць тому +1

    ATKORE !

    • @Cleisthenes607
      @Cleisthenes607 Місяць тому +1

      God no, I dropped that after six months and managements excuse making out of nowhere on mexican imports and their inability to judge when the underlying commodity price drop would stabilise.
      I've found a way better more stable SaaS company in Cerillion which is less volatile and has an actual small moat.

    • @giomf
      @giomf Місяць тому +1

      @Cleisthenes607 Ma Cerillionè un Tecnologico . .non è un trasportatore di petrolio . è altro settore . .!! Market Cap molto piccola ...

    • @Cleisthenes607
      @Cleisthenes607 Місяць тому

      @@giomf Small market cap with high ROCE and a lot of room to grow in a niche market with sticky customers and lots of high margin recurring revenue that mostly goes down to net income.

  • @giomf
    @giomf Місяць тому

    . .OK. . OK...io conoscevo il rischio . . piccola ..SIZE...per provare . .

  • @86ccc
    @86ccc Місяць тому

    Forgot bankrupt lol svn oh man😂

  • @NillerMann
    @NillerMann Місяць тому

    D/S Norden is a much better investment than Torm.