Thanks for the shoutout and great video! To clarify, I actually did not create the Prophecy Reward Items sheet, this one was made by a member of the community. The Sunwreath thing you pointed out seems like it might have actually been a bug with tunklabs at the time the sheet was made, I thought it might have been a typo too but when I summed up all the drops it was divisible by 100k which is the increment of simulation provided by tunklabs, so that was likely the actual data pulled at the time, even though incorrect. As for the DSUM vs DAVERAGE thing, when I look back at my older versions of the sheet I did use DAVERAGE, I can't remember why I changed it but it doesn't seem to make sense, updated it back to DAVERAGE as you recommend. Cheers
Hi, could you make a Guide how to best setup CoF prophecy farming? What Lenses and what prophecies to choose for most efficient farming of for example rings? Should I only use the lenses blocking everything but the monos? Should I only run Rune of Ascendance profiecies if I farm uniques? Why are the other profecies better then rune of ascendance profiecies if so? Should I chose 2-3 farming goals in a single telescope to reduce re-rolling? How many favor should I stack until returning to the observatory? How would all that change for armor/weapons etc? Only some questions coming to my mind.
I've had a question regarding chance of getting an LP conversion when running my plain red rings (4 of them so far, all 'bricked') through Nemesis. I guess the more basic question is how do I determine the odds of getting an LP conversion of any plain unique. Then, do item rarity, re-roll rates, etc affect that chance? Not asking for you or anyone to figure it for me, just guide me where to look, if you can. Thank you and FrozenSentinal both for the hard grinding and thinking you have done, for fun no less!! Okay, okay, for science then. Good luck of your stream runs today.
We have a fairly good approximation in my spreadsheet collection, in the LP Chance tabs. Just double the number under LP1 for RR if you are CoF. TLDR; It should be about 1 in 8, assuming nemesis uses the same LP level calcs as normal drops, which it seems to.
Your formula for the red ring drop chance isn't completely accurate, even though the variation shouldn't really change the values too much. What happens with reroll chance is that the unique ring that was rerolled is removed from the pool and you only roll for the remaining ones. It will keep doing this until you get one. So the drop chance for red ring would be the chance that it lands on red ring (1/16) * reroll chance to keep (0.02) + the chance that it lands on hollow finger (1/16) then fails the reroll to keep (x0.8) then lands on red ring and keeps (x1/15 x 0.02) + the chance that it lands on signet and then lands on red ring, then chance that it lands on hollow finger, rerolls to signet, rerolls to red ring, + all the combinations and permutations of the reroll ones. It makes for a very large formula, but it does increase its probability a little. It should also be noted that this calculation also affects the 0% reroll chance ones (they also have a chance that it landed on red ring and then rerolled for them, etc). Which is why the actual odds don't change that much from your calculations
Are you sure about items getting taken out of the pool? I get conflicting reports on that one. What is your source? I can't figure out what is the truth on the backend haha what you described would have to be coded in python, sheets is not robust enough... I'm just trying to figure out if I should take the time to build it out in python or not :)
I think it's a combination of base ring type , min required level and unique rarity. I don't know from the top of my head, but it may share the filter with another ring. That's why he said "is that the red ring?"
Super lucky! Nice man. I've nnot farmed the Red Ring yet but it took me 2 weeks of active target farming to get Rahyeh's Light shield. Very rare, but not as rare as Red Ring.
wow that favor per RR is kinda accurate, last weekend i spent 205k favor and got 1 RR, too bad it lost to nemesis bcs i died from random stutter Sadge.
Thanks for the shoutout and great video!
To clarify, I actually did not create the Prophecy Reward Items sheet, this one was made by a member of the community.
The Sunwreath thing you pointed out seems like it might have actually been a bug with tunklabs at the time the sheet was made, I thought it might have been a typo too but when I summed up all the drops it was divisible by 100k which is the increment of simulation provided by tunklabs, so that was likely the actual data pulled at the time, even though incorrect.
As for the DSUM vs DAVERAGE thing, when I look back at my older versions of the sheet I did use DAVERAGE, I can't remember why I changed it but it doesn't seem to make sense, updated it back to DAVERAGE as you recommend.
Cheers
oh ya thank the member of the community from me, that sheet is giga useful and I'll be making more use of it soon
Wow this is huge, I appreciate guys like you and frozen that take their time to make this incredible and useful content
Wow man. This is my first time seeing any of your videos and this is just incredible stuff.
Hi, could you make a Guide how to best setup CoF prophecy farming? What Lenses and what prophecies to choose for most efficient farming of for example rings? Should I only use the lenses blocking everything but the monos? Should I only run Rune of Ascendance profiecies if I farm uniques? Why are the other profecies better then rune of ascendance profiecies if so? Should I chose 2-3 farming goals in a single telescope to reduce re-rolling? How many favor should I stack until returning to the observatory? How would all that change for armor/weapons etc? Only some questions coming to my mind.
Great video like always
That project with Julra and rings is awesome. I think the result will be the message "Connection is lost"
holy moly i need to know what you do for a living to be so gifted with math & stats
I work with data for a living :D data analyst/scientist/etc
that checks out
Wow thats such a low expected favor cost, I imagined it would be way higher.
Spread the love, spreadsheet ❤
I've had a question regarding chance of getting an LP conversion when running my plain red rings (4 of them so far, all 'bricked') through Nemesis. I guess the more basic question is how do I determine the odds of getting an LP conversion of any plain unique. Then, do item rarity, re-roll rates, etc affect that chance? Not asking for you or anyone to figure it for me, just guide me where to look, if you can. Thank you and FrozenSentinal both for the hard grinding and thinking you have done, for fun no less!! Okay, okay, for science then. Good luck of your stream runs today.
We have a fairly good approximation in my spreadsheet collection, in the LP Chance tabs. Just double the number under LP1 for RR if you are CoF. TLDR; It should be about 1 in 8, assuming nemesis uses the same LP level calcs as normal drops, which it seems to.
@@FrozenSentinel thanks Frozen.
Link to this spellblade build, plz? =)
still finetuning it! should be ready soon :)
Your formula for the red ring drop chance isn't completely accurate, even though the variation shouldn't really change the values too much. What happens with reroll chance is that the unique ring that was rerolled is removed from the pool and you only roll for the remaining ones. It will keep doing this until you get one.
So the drop chance for red ring would be the chance that it lands on red ring (1/16) * reroll chance to keep (0.02) + the chance that it lands on hollow finger (1/16) then fails the reroll to keep (x0.8) then lands on red ring and keeps (x1/15 x 0.02) + the chance that it lands on signet and then lands on red ring, then chance that it lands on hollow finger, rerolls to signet, rerolls to red ring, + all the combinations and permutations of the reroll ones. It makes for a very large formula, but it does increase its probability a little.
It should also be noted that this calculation also affects the 0% reroll chance ones (they also have a chance that it landed on red ring and then rerolled for them, etc). Which is why the actual odds don't change that much from your calculations
Are you sure about items getting taken out of the pool? I get conflicting reports on that one. What is your source? I can't figure out what is the truth on the backend haha
what you described would have to be coded in python, sheets is not robust enough... I'm just trying to figure out if I should take the time to build it out in python or not :)
hi curse
how you recolor only red ring from all rings?
what rule ?
I think it's a combination of base ring type , min required level and unique rarity. I don't know from the top of my head, but it may share the filter with another ring. That's why he said "is that the red ring?"
@@markojurisic1342 unique silver ring above level 79 is exclusive to Red Ring
Just started the Game and One of my first unqiues was a 1 LP Max rolled Red ring, and im still scared to slam it.
same except the max part. So anxiety inducing!
Super lucky! Nice man. I've nnot farmed the Red Ring yet but it took me 2 weeks of active target farming to get Rahyeh's Light shield. Very rare, but not as rare as Red Ring.
wow that favor per RR is kinda accurate, last weekend i spent 205k favor and got 1 RR, too bad it lost to nemesis bcs i died from random stutter Sadge.
that explains why i only got red ring from COF 1-11. that is quite favor cost for 1 RR.
@@dodang_9147 oh yea ive got that ring on cof 12, its the first rr on my 500ish hours.
@@goyad3265 according to The Curse's math you can get 1 rr each hour on average if you are farming imperial warcamp for example.
welp, I spent 2m favor and got 4 Red Rings, im sad now
RNG will catch up in other ways, surely :)