TORNADO SCIENCE & SUPER COMPUTERS - Tornado Footage compared with Simulations
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- Опубліковано 6 вер 2024
- Understanding tornadogenesis using the fastest computers in the world. Tornado footage compared with tornado forming computer simulations at the highest resolution possible with today's hardware.
New theories and scientific collaboration with Dr. Leigh Orf.
PECOS HANK T SHIRTS & MUGS
pecos-hank-sto...
The Blue Waters Super Computer at the University of Illinois is programmed with the laws of physics the best we understand them as human beings. Different atmospheric conditions can be used to initialize the cloud model. Basically you just hit go and see what happens. The model might then grow clouds that turn into storms and perhaps even tornadoes might develop. In this video we showcase the April 27, 2011 atmospheric conditions that were programmed into the model. April 27, 2011 was the super outbreak were multiple EF4 and EF5 tornadoes wreaked havoc on Alabama, Mississippi and surrounding area. Dr. Catherine Finely at the University of North Dakota found a sounding from that day near Jackson Mississippi and this was the data fed into the model. (Note* The sounding displayed in the video is the incorrect sounding) The model then grew a thunderstorm that produces a long track EF5 tornado with similar characteristics to the tornado that tore through Tuscaloosa Alabama. Because these storms exist in a supercomputer, we have access to a tremendous amount of data within and around the storm's environment. We have the ability to drop weightless tracers in different vicinities to see how they move, where they are carried AND follow the temperature, pressure, humidity and wind speeds existing within the parcel. This is an extremely powerful tool to help us understand more clearly why one supercell produces a long track EF5 tornado and why another storm does not. Ultimately, this could help us predict tornadoes more efficiently and reduce the false alarm rate of warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
MY PERSONAL THOUGHTS:
These cloud models still need a little work to become even more like the real atmosphere. Surface friction is not yet part of the model, and rain is not centrifuged out of tornadoes as would happen in reality. Regardless, I'm finding it increasingly difficult to have any skepticism regarding the validity of these simulations as accurate proxies to Mother Nature. For over 20 years I have specialized in observing storms and documenting them with video and stills to the best of my ability so that I can observe them again and again into the future. I find the similarities between Dr. Orf and team's simulations and Mother Nature astonishing. It's beyond incredible that a storm even develops inside a computer with updrafts and downdrafts, with vorticity, cyclonic and anticyclonic rotations, with tail clouds, mammatus, anvils, overshooting tops, horizontal vortices, a tornado with multiple vortices, helical vortices, vorticity breakdown, etc. And all of this gels with my years of observations. If the visible elements of the supercell are nailed with this much accuracy, surely the internal currents are as accurate representations. Considering all the variables, The fact that a storm grows into a tornado producing supercell instead of a burrito supreme blows my mind. Personally I feel that Dr. Orf's simulations are the most powerful tools we currently have to understand these superstorms and we need more of them. Lots more!
As a physics major and someone interested in fluid dynamics I find this absolutely interesting.
Hell yeah
Would you consider working with Meteorological field? Maybe they need your knowledge to finally pinpoint the precursors.
Me too! Granted gravity and fluid dynamics have wholely different sets of rules as we understand them, they do seem to share many behaviors when modeled.
Leigh Orf has a youtube channel. He has many videos on his research!
@@michelleross9782 Meteorologists don't want anybody getting between them and the money they get pretending they understand what they don't.
The militant, boots to ground weather wizard and the academic weather wizard.... Slowly finding the rules to the majesty of the sky.
Awesome.
Omg a pecos hank video my day is great now
same ! It seems like forEVER since we got a new one .. : )
I was worried that he was not in Kansas anymore 🐶. Been waiting for something for awhile. Hank must have been playing music some where.
@@sharonolsen6579 well worth it when they come
@@StewartMarsden Absolutely !! But, I should clarify.. more than a day seems like forever to me in this case .. ; > They are always awesome !
Yay!
I'll be darned. I was out storm spotting in Alabama and accidentally got within half a mile of a rain wrapped EF-3 tornado. I encountered wind gusts of 50 mph or more going toward the location of the tornado while my barometer showed a drop of 8 mb in about 10 minutes. I've never had a decent explanation for this until now.
BALLZ?
Just remember, large pressure drop = large forming tornado! No pressure drop = no tornado!
At 11:25 where u overlay the simulation on top of your video is AMAZING!!! Actually being able to see what is happening inside the tornado is so cool! Great work!!!!
Sts9 is awesome
My 6 year old son just might be your biggest fan, Hank. Our house was hit by a tornado in May and ever since he has been watching your videos and learning more about them. I dare say you have ignited a life long passion of his. He watches you everyday with his UA-cam time!
is he still interested in tornadoes?
As a molecular modeller I can appreciate how exciting it is to see your models reflecting objective observations SO closely. Congratulations to the whole team on such a stunning validation of their work. Keen to see where this goes tbh :)
Just saw the Pecos Hank subscription notification on my phone, IMMEDIATELY clicked!
Lol. I hit brakes (in heavy traffic) and I'm watching on side of an expressway in Michigan.
@@Richhays that's dedication if I ever heard of it
You guys rock!
Same
I'm glad people have been commenting this for 4 years :)
Awesome! I Skyped with him just last month as a part of a research project and we talked and referenced your guys’ first video. He said I was asking all the right questions and he is a really great guy.
It's really good (and really important) to hear a modeller offering cautionary tales of confirmation bias and emphasising the importance of adhering to the scientific method. As George Box said, all models are wrong, though some are useful. I have an immense amount of respect for Dr Orf. It's so difficult for modellers to avoid becoming wedded to their models but Dr Orf is a true scientist, whose awareness of the potential fallibility of his models ensures that his work has tremendous integrity, and so is of great scientific value. What an amazing guy! Fabulous video! Regards from the UK!
I deeply appreciate your comment.
100% It's like a PID controller requiring negative feedback to maintain an accurate consistent data point
Love these scientfic videos - truly amazing what technology can do nowadays!
Nur der SVW ;)
I do agree tho
Oh my, german soccer is here
AsinusSum Mein Profilbild verursacht immer Internetkriege, haha
Me too, im totally geeking out
As an engineer who loves computer simulations and weather phenomena, I have never clicked faster. Amazing video, gentlemen! Keep up the great work!
Oh man, I've been hoping for this video for awhile now!! Great job Hank and Dr. Leigh!! I've been following this research and simulations for awhile now. Fantastic!
Ikr!😀
Wow it's been three years since this came out. I'm excited to see how far software has gotten always amazed at how fast science and technology grows in such a limited time
Great follow-up. People who rely on mainstream media have no idea what's going on on the cutting edge of knowledge. You have to go to independent channels like this.
Thank you for this follow up. This collaboration is fascinating.
I can't say how floored I am to see another of your videos, and, it's even a revisit to the simulations! The new theories are exciting!
Being a tornado geek this is one of the coolest things that i have seen. Thank you for sharing it with us i will be sure to write I in my notes.😊
Agreed! There's nothing else like this on the internet!
Yup and this is getting warmer for early detection.
I totally agree, this will eventually lead to breakthroughs in assumed, and currently false, knowlege
What a kick ass collaboration, Hank! You guys are producing some awesome data and presenting in such a way that one doesn't need to be a physicist to wrap their head around to 'get it!' Thanks for another amazing video!
As someone fascinated by tornadoes, I find this incredible. Interesting that Lea couldn't grow the Pilger 2014, double EF4 storm. That was one freak event. Electro magnetic rotation, as Tesla said, is the key to everything.
I imagine to grow that storm you would need detailed knowledge of small scale atmospheric conditions in the vicinity when then storm developed. However, I'd love to see a video of this kind on a cyclic supercell! I want to see the collapse and reorganization
Always a good day when a video from Hank pops up in your subscriptions feed.
Hank I love your videos, your personality and music. Keep it coming Sir.
How about saving animals from the road?
Hank is smarter than the super computer. This is by far one of the best UA-cam channels.
Tornadoes were already amazing and fascinating, but now there's so much more to wonder about and marvel at. Just when we think we know a little about how it works, we find that the paradigm has quite literally been flipped upside down... Hank already showed us storms and tornadoes doing exactly what they're not "supposed to do" and why it can be incredibly dangerous to underestimate them. Now Dr. Orf is potentially finding that it may be because we didn't know the right questions to ask from the start. This is a great collaborative work and one that will surely lead to a better understanding of how our fluid atmosphere really works! Thank you Dr. Orf and your entire team and thank you Hank for the amazing storm coverage.
I enjoy Hank's chase videos because he explains what's happening, rather than simply hollering expletives over and over. He's always been a scientist at heart rather than a thrill ride seeker. So it's cool to see this collaboration.
I love when you update Hank!
That completely messes with my head. Everything that I have known from my studies was that the streamwise vorticity that is tilted up into the storm via an updraft can really only be extended towards the ground with an equally strong downdraft. I really wish I was still at UW Madison so I could continue to learn under these guys. Honestly, they are finding out new ridiculous things every day
It makes me so happy to know that scientists and Hank still call El Reno an EF4-5, despite it being classified as an EF3. That rating robbed El Reno of the notoriety and respect it deserved.
No, they’re referencing the other major El Reno tornado that happened in 2011. That one was officially rated as an EF5.
The El Reno '13 tornado was actually multiple tornadoes in the same large circulation and more than 1 of those tornadoes was multiple vortex and sadly, it was the most dominant of the tornadoes in the circulation that claimed the lives of the Twistex Team and another chaser that also died that day, may they all rest in heaven.
It was only an ef3, cuz it fortunately missed built up areas. Had it hit the city? It doesn't bare thinking about.
The greatest sequel ever made
I like you ;)
This is another dream and wish come true: Pecos Hank and Dr. Orf presenting more collabs that meld my intense interest in tornados and the science behind them!!! 💕 Seriously, I couldn't click this fast enough when I saw it and I know I'll watch it MANY more times so that I can soak up every tiny, pixelated, swirling image as I'm enchanted by the dulcet tones of our dearest Pecos Hank! Y'all are both AMAZING at what you do and SUPERHEROES when y'all work together!!! I wish y'all both the very, very best and cannot wait to see and hear from y'all again! Thank you for your tireless work!!! 😊💜💜💜
Great information....The models were mind blowing given the comparison to your footage of actual tornado events. Thanks Hank - be safe.
I am in awe of this collaboration. That simulation overlayed with the actual footage is jaw dropping incredible. The scale is unbelievable! The amount of energy being put into motion is just incredible.
This is my favorite video so far this year, very well done guys. What an incredible collaboration.
As merely a lay person who appreciates storms, Leigh’s work and Pecos Hank’s videos allow me to feel like I’m along for the ride on cutting edge tornado science. It’s like how I felt when I saw Twister as a kid!
This is awesome! If you are reading this, I hope you have a great day!
Thank you for presenting information and not just being a Yahoo with a camera.
My mom called the weather report "holy hour" and we kids weren't to talk until weather report was over. We didn't live where tornadoes were common, but I think she would have loved your channel.
Totally cool, me working on modelling Moon dust, this is an epic milestone in clarity, luv it, kudos 🎯🏆🎯
Storm chasers like yourself are invaluable in proving modeling. Great job! Totally love your videos!
The quality of this channel is amazing. I love the collaboration you and the Dr have going. I think his research is worthy of serious funding. Hank your field work is fantastic. I think you guys are shaping tornado/storm research for years to come. Keep us updated.
Wow....thanks for all that info. Definitely helped to understand tornadoes better.
Fantastic Hank, the overlay of the actual with the computer model video portions were so cool, the stills were amazing match ups as well. Great work.
Hank I have to say thank you fair all that you have done with your videos they brighten up my day anytime I get that notification. You are the reason I’m going in to meteorology in college. Thank you
That's awesome, I wonder how many students there know about Hank too
202cardline-rest assured, all of us students of meteorology who are tornado geeks kno who Pecos Hank is. Dude is a legend.
This is really exciting work and it is so great to see how you are assisting him in visually verifying his model outputs. Go, Hank, Go!
Thanks for yet another terrific upload, Hank! Great teamwork between you and Dr. Leigh Orf!
The simulation super imposed over the video really brings it to life. I had to replay that over a cuple of times. Very interesting stuff. I live in Madison and I use the SSEC website quite a lot, for just checking the weather. They also have cams so I can see the sky in 5 directions which is nice. I can see the storms coming over the lake towards my home on the north side of town. Keep these videos coming.
This is one of the best tonado explanations that I have ever seen. Pecos Hank always has good videos but just want to say this one is amazing and so perfect how it matches the data. Your videos are by far the best from the commentary to the skill in the photography. Your videos are some of the best edited and visually appealing videos I have ever watched. I am a big fan and have watched this video many times. I hope to keep seeing more of your work.
Wow! That was cool. Thanks Hank. 👍
The better our models are the better we can understand/forecast and your helping in "real science". I think you're the perfect guy for the job. Best chaser-photographer-story teller.
Why is this so hypnoticaly beautiful
😍👍
It's really great to see Hank's hard work being so highly praised and so greatly appreciated, not just by we, the unwashed and foul mouthed masses of UA-cam, but by research level academia.
These aren't just pretty pictures and entertaining videos - this is important, and is being used to do far reaching, serious and meaningful work.
Dude the overlayed stuff at around 11min is INSANE... Looks so good!!!!
GREAT vid again brother! LOVED IT!!!!
This dynamic duo is truly an inspiration. Bravo gentlemen.
Love this content and collaboration Hank. Looking forward to more!
Super intresting. Wonderful collaboration between a computer modeling expert and a highly experienced and observant storm chaser and photographer. Clearly you're both passionate about what you're doing.
Some of these simulations look mesmerizing.
I've been following Dr. Orf and Hank for years now. You folks have helped me improve my awareness of supercells, thank you. One sounding I would like to see is the Pilger, NE Twin Tornado storm. That rare event would be interesting to see Dr. Orf's results. Again Thanks :)
Pecos Hank, this is the best work you've done because you're helping predictive modelling which could save thousands of lives. Thank you both for working together!
Dr. Lee is still out here, 4 years later working hard and making amazing strides. Every time his channel gets updated, I get absurdly happy lnowing we are that much closer to understanding these monster storms
I love geeking out about this type of stuff! Glad I’m not alone on that! 😁
TORNADO SCIENCE!
my two favorite subjects
👍 Coherent theory! Agree! 😎
Fascinating stuff. Be cool if he could make a model of the Jerrell, TX tornado.
Love your vids
Leigh Orf’s Thunderstorms on YT. Some of the most badass weather models to ever exist
I have been fascinated by tornadoes since being a lad in Illinois.. Thanks Hank for not stepping down to the adhd set.. but stepping up to those that truly want to see and know why.. (not that there is anything wrong with the adhd set).. Fascinating as always
yasssss pecos hankkkkkkkk!!!! TEACH US THE WAY OF THE TORNADO!!! TEACH USSSSSSSS!!!
... And make videos because you are absolutely awesome.
The way the two were Combined at 11:21 and after just looks Amazing ! I can watch it over and over and see something new each time. Great Video Thank you .
The more you know. Hank, you and dr. Leigh make quite a team.
thank you for making us smarter today Hank and Dr. Leigh! Awesome video.
Greetings, Mr. Hank! This is all quite spectacular, in all sincerity, but this was a few years ago... Have there been developments?? Can you hip us to what's been happening on the theory side today?? Are there new data?? We would LOVE to hear about any developments. And, as always, tremendous gratitude for the astonishing work you do - thank you!
I wanna know if this has been peer reviewed yet??!!!
@@MoodyTheOnly11inWpNs Ah, interesting point!
The overlay of the simulation animation on top of the timelapse footage blew my mind :O
I love these types of videos. I love your chases too. When you sum up the chase season with videos like this, it's a super treat. Thank you!
The two layers with the original footage and the model wind streamlines on top of it after 11:40 is so damn awesome.
This is the content I go bananas for. The kind of stuff Nat Geo and Discovery used to do a lot more of before shows like ‘The Dog Psychics of Orange County’ and ‘Dr. Denny Stumpp: UFO Whisperer.’ Thanks, as always, for the great content.
Amazing footage! I think this is UA-cam's best channel for studies/understanding of tornadoes! Excellent collaboration between Dr. Leigh and Pecos Hank!
Love your channel man your so awesome!!!
I have to say, your videos are among the most educational when it comes to weather phenomena anywhere. I think one of your greatest contributions to educational content is allowing the scientist to speak scientifically, in language that best describes the content of the subject and not catering to "lay-people". It's very respectful of both the audience and the science, and I respect that.
Oh my god yes NEW VIDEO
OWO A NEW PECOS HANK VIDEO😃
Dr. Leigh Orf and you PC. both are telling us how great these discoveries are. But I think the magnitude of this, is far greater, than anyone understands. With your teamwork this could be the answer to a lot of questions. "Predicting mother nature". Thank you. Cheers from Austria!
I thought I had watched the Lee Orf videos with a good understanding of what I had watched. I realize now after watching this one that I didn’t know what I was watching then and it’s time for re-watching. I feel like I just found a whole new world of information.
"Just like in the simulations!" Meme material here.
Nice video Hank, as always!
I studied severe storms for a long time, and this is fascinating. I knew they were creating storms on super computers, and I'm even more informed now! Thanks.
This is absolutely astounding, for the longest time I've always thought that tornadoes formed from the cloud down not the ground up. It's really cool to see that aggressive updraft.
Awesome keep up the amazing videos!!!
I would love to see more videos of Leigh and Pecos collaboration in future.
This is amazing, hopefully this type of collaboration brings about better forecasting and maybe even better warnings. Maybe instead of maybe 15-30 minutes it can be extended even up to hours in advance. You never know, science is always advancing. Great stuff and can't wait for more videos.
amazing how similar the storms look to the models, these comparison pictures are crazy!
This is why you have the best tornado chase channel!
This actually makes some sense to me. If you watch a lot of clips of tornadoes trying to form, you will notice that a lot of times there will be a lot of little fingerling-like vortices that come together right at the beginning.
The famous clip of the start of the Joplin 2011 tornado is a good example of that. Bunches of little fingers come together, and it just explodes into a big funnel, which then shortly explodes into a big wedge.
The overlay on the real time storm is sick. Well done!
Need more videos Hank! Really miss your awesome adventures. Much love fr8m California
Love the comparisons. This was beyond awesome. Thanks Thank. And thanks Dr. O.
Stay safe.
Awesome stuff. Moore, Oklahoma High School graduate here. I've been amazed by severe weather all my life. I chased tornadoes going back to the 1980s. Now I live in S.W. Florida and I'm amazed by our daily thunderstorms here. The lightning in these storms is incredible (so electrical). I've also experienced several hurricanes now that I live in S.W. Florida. Hurricane Irma's eye pass right over our house a couple years ago. Hurricanes are also amazing to experience and study.
Love it Hank. Always love when I come to your channel and I learn something.
When theory and practice come together....... great vid Hank. This research seems to be the key to understanding and predicting tornado genesis. But it’s only as good as the field validation from storm chasers.
This is astonishing work by you both. Really shows passion + science at work. Great collaboration. Look forward to more in the future. Inspiring to 'amateurs' such as myself. Seeking the truth, one storm at a time. Well done to you both. Great editing as well.
As a young aspiring physicist with an interest in tornadoes, this aspect of them was fascinating to see! Thanks very much!
I love this channel! All this data and information, high definition video of tornado's, and best of all nobody screaming at their teammates in full panic mode to "DRIVE!!! DRIVE!!! STOP!! FASTER!! FASTER!!! SLOW DOWN!!!" over and over again and again.
Thanks Hank and Dr. Orf! This was informative, exciting, and encouraging. Seeing how chasers on the ground can collaborate with scientists in the lab to corroborate findings shows how much we can all play a part in studying this beautiful blue marble! Keep it up. Come payday, I'll be subbing to Hank's Patreon.
I've taken such an interest in tornadoes and the science behind them after finding your videos, Hank.
Will these studies lead to more accurate prediction?
Less false alarms and earlier warnings?
Yes and yes, or so we hope. I've always said: If you want to predict the future behavior of a storm, you have to understand the inner workings of the storm in the first place. Science tends to move forward in tiny increments, but so long as the arrow is pointing in the right direction, progress is made and hopefully that progress benefits society. The false alarm issue is a really tough nut to crack. Until we have better observations it's always going to be an issue, because it's better to warn and be wrong (nobody dies) than to not warn and be wrong (people are caught unawares).
@@LeighOrfsThunderstormResearch Thank you for the reply and for the important work you're doing.
It's fascinating to watch the computer models but even more so knowing that it will save lives in the future.
@@LeighOrfsThunderstormResearch farmers "the old timers " have always said " That when the barometer suddenly drops run for the cellar , . So is this confirming what they said