How a Little-Known Committee Determines When a Recession Begins | WSJ
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- Опубліковано 7 лют 2023
- No one indicator is used to determine a recession. Rather, it’s a group of people, called the Business Cycle Dating Committee.
WSJ explains how this group decides when the U.S. has entered a recession, and why knowing that date is so important.
Illustration: Jacob Reynolds
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Markets and economics are complex. It's easy to be overwhelmed by a sea of wonky indicators and lose track of why they matter. This series breaks down the basic terms and ideas that move the markets.
#Recession #Economy #WSJ
The failure of SVB and everything happening has left the markets in shreds. I'm at a crossroads right now, deciding if to liquidate 200k portfolio down by 10%, and it's uneasy for me to not panic after my recent awful divorce. I just need investing ideas to afford my retiremen....
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I decide if we are in a recession or not
That is untrue. A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (our GDP shrinking instead of expanding).
A recession isn’t defined as “a rough economic period” or a time with high inflation, though those often occur during a recession. A recession is a SPECIFIC economic state with specific criteria and this has always been the case
This video basically: “ The committee of 8 individuals aren’t politically at all and based on data, but definitely reporting a recession is political”. Wow
Welcome to the real world
Everything is political
Anything runs by humans is political, bias and not trustworthy. Wow
Aren’t *politcal at all
Not politically…. I’m just saying.
These short videos are informative and interesting to watch. Thanks WSJ
The title should use "determines" instead of "decides"
Edit: Thanks for updating it.
That's still ambiguous because it can still imply causation. It's better if they use "identifies".
Economics is generally regarded as a social science, although some critics of the field argue that economics falls short of the definition of a science for a number of reasons, including a lack of testable hypotheses, lack of consensus, and inherent political overtones.
Fun fact if minimum wage was pinned to the GDP we would get $22 an hour and the Federal Minimum wage is still $7.25
Why do you think that is?
21.38 here in Australia..
@@youknuckle how are the cost over there?
unskilled workers are flooding in across the border.
@@youknuckle curious, is that in AUD or USD? Either way it's still more than our federal minimum either way
Who else thought Patrick Dempsey had gotten a job at the WSJ? 0:50
The Business Cycle Dating Committee sounds like an interesting dating site for economists....
Probably they are.
Recessions are simply cyclical contractions of liquidity that cause a corresponding decline in economic activity.
We are talking ourselves into a recession
A self-fulfilling prophecy in some facets, recessions
Great video.
Economic is always connecting to politic. It's absolutely. How to handle economy of state will always be followed by political will.
Economics is generally regarded as a social science, although some critics of the field argue that economics falls short of the definition of a science for a number of reasons, including a lack of testable hypotheses, lack of consensus, and inherent political overtones.
In THE REAL WORLD though it's actually 2 successive quarters of negative GDP growth, not some secret dating committee no one has ever heard of 🤣
The whole concept of how economies operate needs drastic changes...
Your comment "The whole concept of how economies operate needs drastic changes..." indicates how little your understanding of economics is... You can understand economic principles but you can't change them.
Option 1: Naziism. Millions of people killed.
Option 2: Communism. 10's of Millions of people killed.
Option 3: Why Not Both?
That's not how that works... That's not how any of this works. Culture needs to change before "economics", if that is even possible...
@@lakeguy65616 it does evolve as we go tho. Basic principles remain constant but nothing else about how we approach it stays the same for long.
I hope you don’t have a Ph D in Economics.
the amount of word salad and mental gymnastics makes it sound like the Committee is basically that Chicken Bail-out scene from South Park
Hey, please add sources in the comments, I can't find further information and data. 🙂
That area between the peaks and troughs is a wavelength 😊
These 8 peoples determines our simulated reality.
the narrator sounds similar to narrator for the Vox channel, i wonder if it's the same person
The Free Market Decides. As Always.
These guys are not the market. These guys are not non-partisan.
/ implicit corruption incorporating all of the countries conscious into a couple schemey manipulators that infiltratively impose themselves for regressive self destructive degeneracy based regressive concentrated control. there is no free market!.
By the time they publicly announced the recession, the recession already finished because most of these indicators are lagging indicators.
A recession is when your neighbor loses his/her job. A depression is when you lose yours.
beautifully put
two negative quarters of GDP is a better gauge
No it isn’t. It’s just what the financial press likes to use because it’s easier to point at the pretty picture
The left doesn’t want to call it the Biden Recession.
I was so confused. I thought the title meant the committee puts the US into a recession. Not that they just do some data analysis to say when it happens. Nerds.
How do you induce inflation? Increase money supply by 30% in 2 years. How do you stop inflation? Increase interest rate until the economy is in a recession.
Data has been proven to be pretty easy to manipulate.
The data that reveals that Food Banks are having difficulty keeping up with demand, is one indicator of facts.
Egypt approving participation in BRICS Currency exchange seems to indicate that economic trends may not favor the US being capable of exploiting weaker Nations for long?
The US economy is not capable of supporting a Marshall Plan today.
Instead we appear to be exploiting European Consumers with LNG......
Ssn benefits are peanuts now, while ssn taxes are still high. I think fed should accept inflation and reduce mortgage rates. All other countries have already been inflated.
This was 10 people when I added it to my watch later a few hours ago, what changed?
There might be an economical turmoil but there is no doubt that this is still the best time to invest.
Fab
James Poterba looks like Stephen Hawkings long lost brother.
The committee member can place a Short on the market prior declaring it recession!
Is recession the opposite of progression?
"If the committee felt comfortable"
Can I have the formula for determining a recession?
I’m redefining that group to mean that it is not at all what it has once been.
They've always called recessions far after we're already in one
When ya can't afford food but it's not a recession
50% recession - 50% expansion
The current American problem is that they lost their industrial base and have nothing to trade besides guns and overprinted money. I'm delighted I sold off the majority of my significant assets on the financial market at a premium price before I declared them terrible investments! Because they misjudged China, the US economy is currently in trouble.
Sales and industrial production has been falling since October 2022. We're probably in a recession.
Wsj: “but employment, a key indicator for the committee, was still strong”
Graph: shows a nearly 33% drop in employment…. AND, wsj circled them.
Credibility…?
Um.. it's important to understand charts and not just ogle at pretty pictures.
The chart is showing growth. GDP is in the negative while employment is in the positive. The rate of growth has slowed down but it's still growing. And recession is defined by degrowth in the statistics.
Interest rates don’t determine recessions lol, they contribute to it but definitely aren’t responsible for it.
Is it a recession or nobody had the ball to drop?
should be mechanical, maybe with some/limited level of overwrites.
OMG, it is like the French immortals... but instead of language ... for an econimic intepretation...
ARREST OCASIO CORTEZ
It only matters to wall Street traders , that's the big payday of them
#Recession Dating Cycles
Wait. What’s the definition of recession? Oh that’s right 7 consecutive years of negative growth. Trust me, I work for the govt.
Isn’t it flowing the money all about money economy is money money is life everything cost money money is life money money money
This story started to be created weeks ago
8 yt people determine when our economy is in trouble?
Basically the committee is useless for traders
Lol basically imagine a doctor telling you the patient is dead after they have died - 5 months later. That's what the video is saying. Until the patient dies everything is fine.
🇮🇳🇮🇳🙏🙏👍👍
Just be honest (giggle). Let me translate:
4:34 "We want employment to appear strong to keep the facade of a strong economy going for as long as possible, so we adjust how metrics are calculated to make the data look the way we want and we do this for as long as we possibly can until we start to lose credibility with the American public."
5:25 "Even if we have data and know what is happening, a guy in office will silence us so as to not make him look bad. Then we have to wait until enough time has passed so it won't affect him, which also adds to why we backdate the start times of every recession."
how? there is another committee behind this little-known committee that tells it when to tell everyone that they are living in a recession
Schaffe schaffe Häusle baue für die Enteignung im Pflegeheim :-)
Deutschland
Jeff Bezos said we 😅need to not buy a big screen tv last year Black Friday and use money wisely. Take advise from a self made than economists
Those people are bought
The fed
No recession!
I don’t trust any media.
Anyone wants to bet with me?
can we just move back to the gold standard
Nope, we lost that when out debt first exploded because of the Vietnam War, and all the Eurpean countries wanted the gold they let us borrow (after world War 2) back, So Nixon unplugged it. That ship sailed a long time ago for a war we didn't even win.
Can't. It'd be worth such a tiny fraction of an ounce (like 1/128th of an ounce) that it wouldn't be worth it. Also gold backed currency can still have inflation
HAHAHA the definition since god was a child: did GDP drop by 2 or more consecutive quarters? If yes, recession. Biden and Bush both tried to redefine what recession means for political gain.
Is GDP the best? Not really. But that is still the definition. Literally just look it up.
So this committee is a waste as AI could do this analysis since it's data....problem solved
Basically a group of economic historians. So, who cares. Only matters after the fact
Our entire economy is being held up by poor minded spenders..
#OpposeMassLayoffs
That's a white committee lol
I mean statistically, there aren't much black economist in US, let alone that high of a qualification. Luckily though with time, there'll be more black economist
Super white lol
You wouldn’t like it if Thomas Sowell was on that committee. Lol.
@@Pfyzer racist propagating eugenics dehumanization illusions
Stop it about recession who cares about money
when the tv says we are, duh. stick to your programming, npcs.
2023 May.
Successful people don't become that way overnight. what most people see at a glace- wealth.a great career, purpose-is the result of hard work and hustle over time.I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life.
The failure of SVB and everything happening has left the markets in shreds. I'm at a crossroads right now, deciding if to liquidate 200k portfolio down by 10%, and it's uneasy for me to not panic after my recent awful divorce. I just need investing ideas to afford my retiremen....
Successful people don't become that way overnight. what most people see at a glace- wealth.a great career, purpose-is the result of hard work and hustle over time.I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life.