06:00 amaz missed lethal just like the game before... 2 Divine spirit = 6•2•2 = 24 Steal both the 2/3 with potion of madness and shadow madnesses = 4 That's 28 with no taunts left!
Its still incorrect, the odds of you getting taunt totem AND it surviving Volcano would be far less then volcanoing first and taking the 25% chance afterwords, he just got insanely lucky the totem survived.
no no no, the odds of ending the turn with a taunt totem on board if he volcanos before hero power (25%) are still astronomically better than odds of ending the turn with any totem on board if he hero powers before volcano. i can't do the math precisely but i know it's calculable with matrices. in order to not lose his taunt totem he needs it to be hit 0 or 1 times out of 15. with 4 minions on board the odds are decent, but the odds of hitting it get much higher if the spell dmg totem or the priest of the feast dies. with a 15 dmg minion on board to soak up damage without dying, and therefore keep the odds better, it wasn't as bad of a play as it normally would be. but it's still awful, even if there were 7 minions on board the totem would still be more likely to die than to survive. but there were 4 minions on board and several of those pings were most likely to be calculated after 2 minions died. the math is hard on this only because the probability of the totem being hit depends on the number of minions on board, and that number can decrease midway through the pings. so the first half of the pings may have a low probability of hitting the totem, but the second half have a 50% probability, and it only needs to get hit twice to die. therefore we're really calculating several different odds. the odds of totem surviving depend on the odds of totem getting hit, and the odds of that depend on the odds of other minions dying. we can't precisely ascribe a number because it's a probability multiplied by a set of possible circumstances. there are many different possible combinations of ping targets but it can be represented as a probability, and this probability depends on the number of minions and how much health each one has. i'm just using my math intuition to make this judgment because actually calculating it would require forming a big matrix of possible scenarios and most likely using a computer to model their probability distribution as basically a bell curve. but in my estimation, the stoneclaw totem survives way less than 25% of the time. this is because 1) in several of the scenarios, it's the first minion to die anyway; 2) in other scenarios, the wrath of air totem and priest of the feast die, which is a moderate result, but this leaves a 15 health minion to compete for pings with a 0/2, minus however much health they randomly lost. so it's progressively more likely to die as the volcano effect carries on; 3) only a few total scenarios even allow the totem to survive, because the volcano is forced to keep dealing damage until 15 total damage has been done, or nothing is left. because there is so much total hp on the board, it can't deal less than 15 total damage, and basically the number of possible scenarios where lightning strikes the same target twice is much greater than those where lightning strikes a different target 15 times in a row. since we're basically talking about a set of scenarios here, once we have an estimate of the possible results of hero powering first, it's possible to directly compare it to the easily calculated results of hero powering after. even if it's just an estimated curve it's still in the same language as the 25% odds of rolling taunt totem. it's just obvious that 25% is gonna be much higher than whatever we estimate for the other curve, because that one starts off with 50% failure, doubles it, and multiplies it by progressively higher (but hard to calculate) quantities. even if they were really low it would still be lower than 25% by definition because 25% is the asymptote, since there are 4 minions on board. no matter what the odds of getting hit start at 25%, reach 50%, and skyrocket due to the remaining 17 health being distributed so lopsidedly (2 vs 15). and i have even left out some variables that make the odds lower. first of all, the odds of getting a taunt minion after the volcano are obviously 1 in 4. but as you mentioned the odds of rolling a taunt totem if you already have a wrath of air totem are 1 in 3. so we can't just compare "the odds of taunt totem surviving the volcano" to "the odds of rolling a taunt totem without a wrath of air totem on board," because in the first scenario you have to get lucky and roll the taunt totem too. so if we estimate the odds of taunt totem surviving at around 2%, which i think is conservative (starting at 50% then 2 hp versus 15 hp), we then have to cut this down by 66%. so we have a 0.66% chance of getting lucky and rolling a taunt totem, AND getting lucky again and having it survive our volcano. which is much, much lower than 25%. the second issue, which is hard to quantify, is that by toteming first we're adding 2 health to the total pool and therefore increasing the likelihood of priest of the feast surviving. having the 0/2 taunt totem only saves us if the opponent can only attack once, and then only if he has no removal or damage from hand, which incidentally is likely since he's playing priest and has few cards in hand. but that priest of the feast has 3 health so it's already more likely to survive than the taunt totem. if we hold back the hero power until after volcano, the odds are higher that priest of the feast dies. this alone must be worth more than 8%, since even if priest of the feast takes 2 pings it can still attack, meaning the odds are not just worsened by a few percent. it's the last ping that makes a difference, but scenarios where priest of the feast gets hit twice, once, or even zero times count. so 2 health reduces the total number of favorable scenarios by much more than 2. so if that's worth more than 8%, then already we don't care if the odds of rolling taunt totem are 25% instead of 33%. in one scenario we have a very strong chance to kill priest of the feast, followed by a 25% chance to roll taunt totem, followed by a 100% chance to block the tar creeper. the first two conditions must be met for survival, but the odds are decent-worth not conceding, at least-and the last condition is guaranteed if we do it this way. in the other scenario we have a lower chance of killing priest of the feast, followed by 8% better chance of rolling taunt totem, followed by about a 2% chance to block the tar creeper because in most scenarios, volcano kills our taunt totem. so if we totem first, we improve the odds of meeting the second condition (taunt totem) by 8%, but then we decrease the odds of meeting the third condition (having a taunt alive to block tar creeper) by 98%. from there, the game is the same. we draw hex and win. but the odds of reaching that point are way higher if we trust the hero power RNG than if we trust the volcano RNG. admittedly this isn't super intuitive to everyone, since there are 4 minions on board, which makes it look like there's a 25% chance of it getting hit. but because the volcano kills things as it goes, because those 4 minions have very different hit points, and because each ping starts off with AT LEAST 25% chance to hit the totem, only getting higher, the odds of stoneclaw totem surviving the volcano are much lower than the odds of stoneclaw totem getting hit by any given ping. basically the shaman misplayed but he'd have to really think about it in order to realize this, or have some experience with probability theory. it's not super easy to grasp but it is really significant in cases like this, and will occasionally mean the difference between winning and losing. in this particular game, the opponent won despite misplaying, but the odds of this were extraordinarily low. he got extremely lucky. and indeed, maybe if he used volcano first, he might have gotten super unlucky and let the priest of the feast survive AND failed to roll taunt totem. but in a card game the right play is the play with the best odds, not the play that turned out to win. even if you end up winning, you still misplayed if you took a line with a lower success rate. if you get in this kind of situation where the odds can change mid-spell, like due to a random target dying which is admittedly a really unusual game state, try to think about the odds in terms of the sum of all the possible results. in one scenario, tar creeper gets hit 15 times in a row and dies. in other scenarios, everything dies except tar creeper, in random orders. in some scenarios, a 0/2 or a 3/3 dies first and then a bunch of other scenarios branch out from there because now the odds of getting hit are 1 in 3, not 1 in 4. see what i mean? if you think about it like that, you won't be able to calculate precise odds but you'll be able to get a rough idea of how many scenarios there are, and roughly how many of those scenarios include a given result. then you won't know exactly how likely it is for the totem to survive, but it'll immediately be obvious to you that there are thousands more scenarios where totem dies than where totem survives.
You steal the two taunt elementals with shadowmadness and potion of madness and double divine spirit and inner fire the Tortollan shellraiser which adds up to 24+2+2=28
shadow madness 2-3, 6 mana left, 2 damage; potion of madness 2-3, 5 mana left, 2 damage; divine+divine+inner fire 2-6, 0 mana left, 24 damage; total 28
Awww Amaz was punished for missing lethal that game, always lovely XD. (He went dragon fire instead of realizing "Oh I have both shadow madness and potion of madness, take both his taunts, double divine spirit and inner fire shellraiser, hit face for 28 damage of the opponents 27 health, win the game! XD)
Missed potential lethal at 4:00 it was very difficult to spot however if he had been thinking of lethal as an option at that time, I'm sure he could have seen it
He missed at least 2-3 lethal... turn 9 is the "most tricky one", but he should had at least tryed to calculate his damages once a turn : he has all the combo pieces in his hand...
And the opponent was at 27 health.... Who's the monkey now? And you re so arrogant, you went and answered all the comments, to "correct" them. hahaha! Dumb people that think they re smart are the funniest
06:00 amaz missed lethal just like the game before...
2 Divine spirit = 6•2•2 = 24
Steal both the 2/3 with potion of madness and shadow madnesses = 4
That's 28 with no taunts left!
The end kills me :D
why did he even totem before the volcano anyway? D: #AdvancedBM
To prevent from getting another flame totem. If he played it after he would have a 1/4 chance instead of 1/3. hur dur
Because he was playing agaist Amaz
Nachtmahrionette Endzeit he got more chances on not getting hit by volcano 2 times xD
Its still incorrect, the odds of you getting taunt totem AND it surviving Volcano would be far less then volcanoing first and taking the 25% chance afterwords, he just got insanely lucky the totem survived.
no no no, the odds of ending the turn with a taunt totem on board if he volcanos before hero power (25%) are still astronomically better than odds of ending the turn with any totem on board if he hero powers before volcano. i can't do the math precisely but i know it's calculable with matrices. in order to not lose his taunt totem he needs it to be hit 0 or 1 times out of 15. with 4 minions on board the odds are decent, but the odds of hitting it get much higher if the spell dmg totem or the priest of the feast dies. with a 15 dmg minion on board to soak up damage without dying, and therefore keep the odds better, it wasn't as bad of a play as it normally would be. but it's still awful, even if there were 7 minions on board the totem would still be more likely to die than to survive. but there were 4 minions on board and several of those pings were most likely to be calculated after 2 minions died. the math is hard on this only because the probability of the totem being hit depends on the number of minions on board, and that number can decrease midway through the pings. so the first half of the pings may have a low probability of hitting the totem, but the second half have a 50% probability, and it only needs to get hit twice to die. therefore we're really calculating several different odds. the odds of totem surviving depend on the odds of totem getting hit, and the odds of that depend on the odds of other minions dying. we can't precisely ascribe a number because it's a probability multiplied by a set of possible circumstances. there are many different possible combinations of ping targets but it can be represented as a probability, and this probability depends on the number of minions and how much health each one has. i'm just using my math intuition to make this judgment because actually calculating it would require forming a big matrix of possible scenarios and most likely using a computer to model their probability distribution as basically a bell curve. but in my estimation, the stoneclaw totem survives way less than 25% of the time. this is because 1) in several of the scenarios, it's the first minion to die anyway; 2) in other scenarios, the wrath of air totem and priest of the feast die, which is a moderate result, but this leaves a 15 health minion to compete for pings with a 0/2, minus however much health they randomly lost. so it's progressively more likely to die as the volcano effect carries on; 3) only a few total scenarios even allow the totem to survive, because the volcano is forced to keep dealing damage until 15 total damage has been done, or nothing is left. because there is so much total hp on the board, it can't deal less than 15 total damage, and basically the number of possible scenarios where lightning strikes the same target twice is much greater than those where lightning strikes a different target 15 times in a row.
since we're basically talking about a set of scenarios here, once we have an estimate of the possible results of hero powering first, it's possible to directly compare it to the easily calculated results of hero powering after. even if it's just an estimated curve it's still in the same language as the 25% odds of rolling taunt totem. it's just obvious that 25% is gonna be much higher than whatever we estimate for the other curve, because that one starts off with 50% failure, doubles it, and multiplies it by progressively higher (but hard to calculate) quantities. even if they were really low it would still be lower than 25% by definition because 25% is the asymptote, since there are 4 minions on board. no matter what the odds of getting hit start at 25%, reach 50%, and skyrocket due to the remaining 17 health being distributed so lopsidedly (2 vs 15). and i have even left out some variables that make the odds lower. first of all, the odds of getting a taunt minion after the volcano are obviously 1 in 4. but as you mentioned the odds of rolling a taunt totem if you already have a wrath of air totem are 1 in 3. so we can't just compare "the odds of taunt totem surviving the volcano" to "the odds of rolling a taunt totem without a wrath of air totem on board," because in the first scenario you have to get lucky and roll the taunt totem too. so if we estimate the odds of taunt totem surviving at around 2%, which i think is conservative (starting at 50% then 2 hp versus 15 hp), we then have to cut this down by 66%. so we have a 0.66% chance of getting lucky and rolling a taunt totem, AND getting lucky again and having it survive our volcano. which is much, much lower than 25%. the second issue, which is hard to quantify, is that by toteming first we're adding 2 health to the total pool and therefore increasing the likelihood of priest of the feast surviving. having the 0/2 taunt totem only saves us if the opponent can only attack once, and then only if he has no removal or damage from hand, which incidentally is likely since he's playing priest and has few cards in hand. but that priest of the feast has 3 health so it's already more likely to survive than the taunt totem. if we hold back the hero power until after volcano, the odds are higher that priest of the feast dies. this alone must be worth more than 8%, since even if priest of the feast takes 2 pings it can still attack, meaning the odds are not just worsened by a few percent. it's the last ping that makes a difference, but scenarios where priest of the feast gets hit twice, once, or even zero times count. so 2 health reduces the total number of favorable scenarios by much more than 2. so if that's worth more than 8%, then already we don't care if the odds of rolling taunt totem are 25% instead of 33%. in one scenario we have a very strong chance to kill priest of the feast, followed by a 25% chance to roll taunt totem, followed by a 100% chance to block the tar creeper. the first two conditions must be met for survival, but the odds are decent-worth not conceding, at least-and the last condition is guaranteed if we do it this way. in the other scenario we have a lower chance of killing priest of the feast, followed by 8% better chance of rolling taunt totem, followed by about a 2% chance to block the tar creeper because in most scenarios, volcano kills our taunt totem.
so if we totem first, we improve the odds of meeting the second condition (taunt totem) by 8%, but then we decrease the odds of meeting the third condition (having a taunt alive to block tar creeper) by 98%. from there, the game is the same. we draw hex and win. but the odds of reaching that point are way higher if we trust the hero power RNG than if we trust the volcano RNG. admittedly this isn't super intuitive to everyone, since there are 4 minions on board, which makes it look like there's a 25% chance of it getting hit. but because the volcano kills things as it goes, because those 4 minions have very different hit points, and because each ping starts off with AT LEAST 25% chance to hit the totem, only getting higher, the odds of stoneclaw totem surviving the volcano are much lower than the odds of stoneclaw totem getting hit by any given ping. basically the shaman misplayed but he'd have to really think about it in order to realize this, or have some experience with probability theory. it's not super easy to grasp but it is really significant in cases like this, and will occasionally mean the difference between winning and losing. in this particular game, the opponent won despite misplaying, but the odds of this were extraordinarily low. he got extremely lucky. and indeed, maybe if he used volcano first, he might have gotten super unlucky and let the priest of the feast survive AND failed to roll taunt totem. but in a card game the right play is the play with the best odds, not the play that turned out to win. even if you end up winning, you still misplayed if you took a line with a lower success rate. if you get in this kind of situation where the odds can change mid-spell, like due to a random target dying which is admittedly a really unusual game state, try to think about the odds in terms of the sum of all the possible results. in one scenario, tar creeper gets hit 15 times in a row and dies. in other scenarios, everything dies except tar creeper, in random orders. in some scenarios, a 0/2 or a 3/3 dies first and then a bunch of other scenarios branch out from there because now the odds of getting hit are 1 in 3, not 1 in 4. see what i mean? if you think about it like that, you won't be able to calculate precise odds but you'll be able to get a rough idea of how many scenarios there are, and roughly how many of those scenarios include a given result. then you won't know exactly how likely it is for the totem to survive, but it'll immediately be obvious to you that there are thousands more scenarios where totem dies than where totem survives.
anyone else read the title in amaz's voice?
so.. you mean like gay? KappaPride
9:27
So I did the math and the chance of that was 0.2314%
Seems legit
he lost cause he missed lethal
He did actually miss lethal at 5:58 (just use every spell but pint size & dragonfire).
Credit to Ragnaros LightLord for spotting it.
Parapoint13 wait how? That's just 24 dmg tho no?
You steal the two taunt elementals with shadowmadness and potion of madness and double divine spirit and inner fire the Tortollan shellraiser which adds up to 24+2+2=28
hammypie the 2/3 get charge 24 + 4
Papi Papa forgot the taunts can attack too lol thx!!
right! i just realized it either thanks to u haha
The end was awesome :D
Overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer! (Haven't watched the video yet but I have a feeling this comment is needed just from the title)
Oh my god, that ending lol
Missed lethal @ 5:55 Shadowmadness, potion of madness the taunts
Derpediderp Derp but that's 24 dmg only and opponent was at 27 health no?
Derpediderp Derp Uhm the two taunts that he takes can attack too...
shadow madness + potion of madness on the two taunts, divine spirit x2 + inner fire on the 2/6, result - 24/24 2/3 2/3 = 28 dmg to opponent's face
shadow madness 2-3, 6 mana left, 2 damage;
potion of madness 2-3, 5 mana left, 2 damage;
divine+divine+inner fire 2-6, 0 mana left, 24 damage;
total 28
hammypie buff 2/6 to 24/24 , steal 2 taunt is 28dmg
Amaz miss leathal? How original of a way to start this video, not like he always does it
JK jk love you amaz
9:15
For some hot uncut Volcano action! NSFW! Be sure to watch it all the way to the end!
That Vulcano was the one in like 5000 Vulcanos, Best BM EVER
Amaz has the best video editings.. That end tho! MEGALUL
the last 20 seconds was the funniest .. even more than amaz missing lethals lmao
Awww Amaz was punished for missing lethal that game, always lovely XD. (He went dragon fire instead of realizing "Oh I have both shadow madness and potion of madness, take both his taunts, double divine spirit and inner fire shellraiser, hit face for 28 damage of the opponents 27 health, win the game! XD)
Editing on this video was fantastic. Keep up the great work
28 damage burst combo at 5:55 for 10 mana, shadow/potion madness, 4 damage, double divine 2-6 into 2-12, 2-24 And innerfire
5:59 Shadow Madness+ Potion of Madness+ Divine Spirit+ Divine Spirit+ Inner Fire = 28 Damage and costs 10 mana.
That just made my day better
5:59 lethal
1 mana: potion of madness 2/3 taunt = 2 damage
4 mana: shadow madness 2/3 taunt = 2 damage
2 mana: divine spirit tortolla 2/12
2 mana: divine spirit tortolla 2/24
1 mana: inner fire tortolla 24/24 = 24 damage
total 10 mana: 28 damage lethal
VolcaNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Amaz - "I don't want to get milled"
Also Amaz - Plays two Northshire Clerics
Missed lethal at 6:01
Steal both taunts, double divine inner fire for 24 + 4 > 27
6:05 missed lethal
Alteir 28 dmg
Well 28 dmg beats 27 hp
He missed lethal twice in this match.. but love u Amaz.
It remembers me a battle between Deathwing and like a two health creature, opponent cast bouncing blade and of course the Deathwing died...
Missed opportunity to call this video 'Volcanooooooooo'
That ending was sooo good😂😂
5:55 missed lethal. shieldraiser buffed to 24/24, steal both 2/3 Taunts: 28 Damage
at least the murloc was friendly and said hello friend before he hexed his last minion xD
Always emote before you deliver the finishing attack. ;)
VolcaNOOOOOOOOO ! is a more appropriate title.
10:15 LOL HE MISSED LETHAL AGAIN
Muhammed URAL 5:58 was also leathal
you got me... XD
Ragnaros LightLord that's why he said "again" lol
i feel good for not falling for this
Missed potential lethal at 4:00 it was very difficult to spot however if he had been thinking of lethal as an option at that time, I'm sure he could have seen it
Biggest mistake of the game was wasting power word shield on Lyra, which you knew was probably going to die anyways
You could have prevented this, Amaz.
Still watching, still lolling.
amaz without glasses looks like panda without black rounds around eyes
Amaz you should be a membre of Failarmy xD.😂
He missed at least 2-3 lethal... turn 9 is the "most tricky one", but he should had at least tryed to calculate his damages once a turn : he has all the combo pieces in his hand...
CRAWLING IN MY SKIIIIIN...
shadow visions gives u the ungoro pack if ur deck is out of cards
Amaz Missed Lethal! 6:00
4.30
Why he didnt steal his fire elemental, double double health and inner fire?
can you guys tell me where were lethals? Im so confused
The funiest yet
3:52 Amaz missed lethal this turn
5:58 Big missplay! This is a leathal!
Rudi Kanyon 28 dmg
Yep, 28 damage of the opponent's 27 health. 27-28= -1, -1
4:03 miss lethal
It burns! What sorcery is this?!
Best ending ever
He had lethal at 5:45
volKKona
edits are fire
Sick editing.
my Noodle Soup was shot outta' my Nose after the Video just ended with the BEEP effect. xD
Dat ending
The end killed me
He keeps missing lethal stopppp
When the editor has more humor than streamer
He had lethal at 5:53, can you spot it?
Video got laggy around 7:36 and was loading/circling Acolytes head perfectly lol
CRAWLING IN MY SKINN
That ending killed me xD
gung slorp yahk
Missed lethal FailFish
[18:19, 30.4.2017] Çağıdaş: Geliyoö
[18:19, 30.4.2017] Çağıdaş: Geliyom
[18:20, 30.4.2017] Çağıdaş: Metroua pincem
[18:20, 30.4.2017] Çağıdaş: Npıon
LMAO THAT ENDING
Why He can't play volcano first prevent the taunt from dying ,I have no idea why he need to use the hero power first
lol flawless ending
Amaz if you continue missing leathals, you gonna miss leathal at Blizzcon at some point and become old_Reckful.
That ending tho
2:45 MISSED LETHAL! Am I the only one who saw that?!
It's not even lethal. Potion of madness targets 2 or less attack. Tar creeper has 3 attack on your turn
Skyler High I AM AN IDIOT AHAHAHAH
9:55 hahahahah LUL
that ending rofl
ok,ok,ok,OK,OK.....not OK
U missed lethal at 5:58 Amaz
Talha DeliPorsuk ??? Yes, 28 damage
And the opponent was at 27 health.... Who's the monkey now? And you re so arrogant, you went and answered all the comments, to "correct" them. hahaha! Dumb people that think they re smart are the funniest
Alex Val he's probably a Sjw who goes to college so he thinks he's smart lol
Alex Val well you misspelled so you don't get to say shit
why there is no elize in this deck
pretty creative video title
Where is Amaz ?!?!?!?!
9:30 You're welcome
amaz deserved this loss
911 We have an bullying emergency at Amaz's stream please sent a bully police car a.s.a.p.
That's why I stopped playing HS.
His fault for losing actually. He had lethal at 5:58 but Amaz sucks too much to realize.
The end, so funny xD
Where is Amaz? Who is this guy?
Zama is best amaz
Rip
hey, i like this kind of video
BM punisher volcano
amaz, you are not legend yet?
this season
Editor is the best. Jesus Chist
Just played with you, is that the real you? I was paladin you were Mage
legit
that hex haha
Title should be VOLCANOOOOOOO
missed lethal 6,15
Me gusta este canal JAJAJAAJAJJA
Hello Darkness my old friend....
Hahaha i love this end
AURELIO