Why Simple Trading Strategies Seem Profitable When They Aren't

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  • Опубліковано 16 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 78

  • @DavidSkerritt
    @DavidSkerritt 3 роки тому +30

    The setup + the context = the decision. I'm a scalper on the ES with 8 years in. I knew the setups back in the first few years and lost because I didn't have the context and experience to recognize when particular setups were lower probability on some days and higher probability on other days. The context and screen time is what took years to develop.

    • @guyredares
      @guyredares 3 роки тому +1

      that's not why you succeed, the reason is you learned to treat trading as a game with rules, define your risk before taking a trade and not let losing trades run out of control

    • @varsam
      @varsam 3 роки тому +4

      @@guyredares Or like my teacher says: You didnt lose money, you payed a lesson. So many lessons the first 2 years...

    • @Wmc56
      @Wmc56 3 роки тому +1

      @@guyredares that too but without context we are out of the game

  • @juceorbe
    @juceorbe Рік тому

    This is one of the smartest approach that Ive found on UA-cam regarding trading strategies

  • @sandileshezi9875
    @sandileshezi9875 3 роки тому +15

    We live in a weird world, Gosh! How can some people dislike this video 🤷🏾‍♂️

    • @Duomoinitiative
      @Duomoinitiative  3 роки тому +2

      Can't please everyone, unfortunately! Thanks Sandile.
      ~ Nicholas

    • @sandileshezi9875
      @sandileshezi9875 3 роки тому

      @@Duomoinitiative for no apparent reason just discourage you from sharing with us helpful information on our forex journey! Thanks for taking time to share with us your experiences and knowledge in forex.

    • @veliem3935
      @veliem3935 3 роки тому

      Khophinde Sandile🤦🏾‍♀️... That's social media for you.

    • @mynameis3983
      @mynameis3983 2 роки тому

      what dislikes

  • @heyalenofficial
    @heyalenofficial 2 роки тому +2

    Our friend wants to tell us that we should properly backtest our strategies. When you backtest, do at least 100 trades. Do 20 trades per day and in 5 days you have amazing data on how your strategy performs over time!

  • @Duomoinitiative
    @Duomoinitiative  3 роки тому +5

    🔹 Get FREE access to the Duomo Trader Development Program: duomotrading.com/FreeDuomoTraining
    🔹 Add us on Instagram: instagram.com/duomoinitiative/
    🔹 Our second channel for financial news and analysis: ua-cam.com/users/MarketMoversFinancialNewsandAnalysis

  • @Yvonne_Jentsch
    @Yvonne_Jentsch Рік тому

    Very clever video! Thank you, helps a lot.

  • @jabs-capitaltradinginc3014
    @jabs-capitaltradinginc3014 3 роки тому +6

    You are always challenging my approach, perspective and critical thinking skills. The last video I watched from you " context based approach' taking quality setups. My biggest take from today's video is that we must challenge any sort of strategy or system presented to us before we can go on to use it ourselves.

    • @Duomoinitiative
      @Duomoinitiative  3 роки тому +2

      Thanks JABS! Yes, or at the very least try to get out of our own way so we can assess the approach as objectively as possible while learning about it.
      ~ Nicholas

  • @brianh5501
    @brianh5501 3 роки тому +2

    Thank you Nicholas, I have recognized this recently in my trading journey but didnt have a complete understanding. label, or solution to look at and deal with it correctly. I very much appreciate your insight on this and as always thank you for sharing your knowledge.

    • @Duomoinitiative
      @Duomoinitiative  3 роки тому

      You're welcome, Brian. Happy to help!
      ~ Nicholas

  • @mnsanabu
    @mnsanabu 2 роки тому +1

    That is because past performance is not indicative of future results.
    The market is like a river, always flowing towards the path with least resistance.
    The moment you step into the river, the water around you has changed already so you're basically into a different river, different environment every second even though you're standing still.

  • @zoyten8279
    @zoyten8279 3 роки тому +3

    This is an amazing and insightful concept!

  • @SSEnrich
    @SSEnrich 3 роки тому +1

    I have backtested the awesome saucer strategy. Very simple, and it is quite logical too. Good results in the backtest. When I try forward test it, it just hovers around 0 profit. If there are many small candles, long wicks without direction and small ATR/low volatility I don't trade it. Still it does not work as good as it should.
    In my backtest I of course have looked for discomfirming evidence. Not a problem I thought as it was still profitable. About pinbars. I see these in my backtests. They are not that hard to spot when they don't result in a reversal, and it happens quite often. I have been told you should just trade them at support and resistance. On the 4H you have to wait months to see that.

    • @zenitsut7209
      @zenitsut7209 3 роки тому

      It's because you don't know how to apply it live.. if it works backtesting majority of the time, it will work live. Discipline and controlling that emotion is key

    • @SSEnrich
      @SSEnrich 3 роки тому +1

      @@zenitsut7209 Thanks for answer. There is one thing I know. My entries in the backtests are very presise. The entries in the forward tests are sometimes too late. Going in 7 pips too late does matter when I aim for 30-40 pips. Also there can be differences in how successful each currency pair is. I will continue working on it and other strategies.

  • @charlesmunchow
    @charlesmunchow 3 роки тому +5

    I'd come to the same conclusions. Its very common to see a UA-camr demonstrating a strategy when there are other loosing setups that meet their criteria on the very chart they're demonstrating on. It comes down to "scrollback" back-testing is highly deceptive. You've got to do it on the right hand edge of the chart.

  • @dealies86
    @dealies86 2 роки тому

    I really appreciate how you discuss the psychology of trading. Great video mate👍

  • @danbrowne212
    @danbrowne212 3 роки тому +2

    My man been gettin them gains!!! 💪💪

  • @netking767
    @netking767 Рік тому

    FX Replay is the perfect tool for this kind of backtesting.

  • @finnwheatley2194
    @finnwheatley2194 Рік тому

    Great video!

  • @apotheyemmanuel3856
    @apotheyemmanuel3856 2 роки тому +1

    This is a great video. But I was thinking, won't I get the same results when backtesting every entry based on my criterias using like the trading view replays tool ?

    • @cyolac3569
      @cyolac3569 2 роки тому

      Was thinking the same too. When you do back testing with due diligence, candle by candle, you will find disconfirming evidence. With or without a replay tool.

  • @passport_papii
    @passport_papii 2 роки тому

    your trading wisdom is on whole other level

    • @Duomoinitiative
      @Duomoinitiative  2 роки тому +1

      Thanks Samuel, I appreciate the kind words!
      ~ Nicholas

  • @markfish8539
    @markfish8539 3 роки тому

    pls what tool did u use here, 8:15

    • @buttmonkey1
      @buttmonkey1 3 роки тому

      It's a simulator - ua-cam.com/video/rwWFDTCb-WM/v-deo.html

  • @TraderElement
    @TraderElement Рік тому

    🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥You are on fire

  • @sousams3797
    @sousams3797 Рік тому

    Thanks buddy

  • @prashanthb6521
    @prashanthb6521 3 роки тому

    Nice lesson !

  • @somtonnamani5422
    @somtonnamani5422 3 роки тому

    Wonderful advise

  • @moofymoo
    @moofymoo 3 роки тому +1

    when strategy don't work, I just wait for different moon phase. full moon does wonders!

  • @justhuman9551
    @justhuman9551 3 роки тому +3

    Loved the parts about trading psychology!!! Ive learned alot in this video!

    • @Duomoinitiative
      @Duomoinitiative  3 роки тому +1

      Happy to hear that! Thanks for watching.
      ~ Nicholas

  • @dee23gaming
    @dee23gaming 11 місяців тому

    I can tell you that overcomplicating trading is just as bad, if not worse. Risk management and trade management is arguably more important than strategy.

  • @iTradeAIMS
    @iTradeAIMS 2 роки тому

    Good video.

  • @vincec5251
    @vincec5251 3 роки тому +1

    Looking forward to the next video! I’m at the point where I need to focus on my trading psychology so I can start to form my own process

    • @Duomoinitiative
      @Duomoinitiative  3 роки тому

      What areas of your trading psychology have you found need some work?
      ~ Nicholas

    • @vincec5251
      @vincec5251 3 роки тому

      @@Duomoinitiative Learning to control my emotions when the trade goes against me but hasn’t reached my stop. I even sized down recently and I was still struggling with it. I also need to learn that it’s ok to take a loss.
      I’m actually in the process in trying to find a trading partner to help me and each other to move forward

  • @veliem3935
    @veliem3935 3 роки тому

    He done did it again...

  • @olairmao
    @olairmao 3 роки тому

    Could you please remake or do a part two of Brazils file economy??

  • @MMD306
    @MMD306 3 роки тому +1

    One of my psychology lectures opened with this exact task. Love it! Another Great video Nicholas

  • @anadonis8559
    @anadonis8559 2 роки тому

    People are not paying enough attention to the clock. Ask yourself do big bank and hedge let their trader trade randomly or are they trading at a very specific time and specific area of the day high and low

  • @patrykpolanski7871
    @patrykpolanski7871 3 роки тому +3

    Great video, I've realised that confirmation bias is really hard to overcome. If you recorded a couple of negative trades, the next time you see a setup that would not work, you will start looking for excuses as to why you wouldn't have taken this trade. Also, live trading entails bad fills, slippage, hesitation and trying to watch multiple stocks/forex pairs at once, making things easy to miss

  • @zaynzahir
    @zaynzahir 3 роки тому

    Thank you so much, will accomodate these in my strategy building from now on!

  • @awahnche1471
    @awahnche1471 3 роки тому

    Thank you the video Nicolas.
    Am learning alot from you.

  • @carlmarc3877
    @carlmarc3877 2 роки тому

    holy shit this was sent from heaven

  • @berya444
    @berya444 3 роки тому

    Pinbars everywhere lol great video.

  • @mariosam2
    @mariosam2 3 роки тому

    only one strategy, omg i find the holy grail every week for the last 3 years :(

    • @Duomoinitiative
      @Duomoinitiative  3 роки тому +1

      😂 oh believe me, I've been there many times too.
      ~ Nicholas

  • @hunterxhunter7051
    @hunterxhunter7051 3 роки тому

    Do you guys trade for other people

  • @danielrioux54
    @danielrioux54 Рік тому

    I am surprised that before implementing a training strategy, it is not been tested before.
    If it does not work in testing environment how can it work in real trading.
    Trading without prior tests, it is a waste of money and makes you part of the 90% of loosing traders.
    What a shame!

  • @eddycerb
    @eddycerb 3 роки тому

    Yeah but you have your own dumo strategy?

  • @salehnekhodi4519
    @salehnekhodi4519 3 роки тому

    به فارسی ترجمه کن

  • @alexandervelissariou5125
    @alexandervelissariou5125 3 роки тому

    CONNOR HAHAHAHA