Eh, give it 2-3 years, you'll see a crash within this cycle. Best bet is to have cash on hand or keep your money in anti inflationary stuff. Buffet exited the market, holding a record amount of cash. The credit borrowing (as well as default) amount muricans are at, is at an all time high. Also, the scarily similar current patterns on the overall market chart when you zoom out from years to decades to the 2007-2008 crash and even the great depression. The now slightly decreasing or stagnating housing prices (in Florida, no one is buying homes that have dropped as much as 20-30% from their initial listed selling price). And everything listed in this video. Not to mention if trump actually implements what he said he would, it would put upwards pressure on price with no stated plan to balance that pressure on the consumer side. Mass deportation, sweeping tariffs, union busting, pro merger/monopoly are all pro owner/producer with not a single policy to balance it on the consumer side. Mass deportation is going to put upwards pressure on prices, so will tariffs. Mergers will make it so there's no incentive to not price gouge as much as the consumer can afford due to no other choice on the consumer side, the only reason a monopoly wouldn't is out of the kindness of their hearts. All I'll say is, better safe than sorry.
Hey man, big shoutout to you and your colleagues for posting content like this. Just a couple of years back, I was working 14-hour shifts as a waiter, and I would watch different investing videos like this non-stop. They gave me confidence and hope that making money investing was actually possible. Now I’ve built a six-figure portfolio and partnered with different foundations aimed at helping the deaf community. Honestly, videos like these were a major reason I’m here today.
I love this!!!!! Pls, how did you grow your portfolio? I would really appreciate any tips or information you provide... I spend extravagantly though I have created myself a spreadsheet for my finances.
To be honest, I am not an expert myself, so I can't help with tips. I work with Michael Allen Eckrich. He's a licensed expert and from a credible firm. You could also look him up and consider working with him if you're interested.
A certain "Warren Buffett" (made-up name?) writes to me, from somewhere obscure in Nebraska, assuring me that he's not "timing" anything, but that he "simply can't find anything worth buying right now" (!) so has a third of his "wealth" (such as it may be) in T-bills right now. Rather disingenuous, if I may say so, "Warren" (if that really is your name!).
The overall P/E is high, but if you look at a majority of the market, things are not insane. It is a relatively small portion of the market that is a bit nuts, but even then, most of those high P/E companies are making money and growing like crazy.
You work for 42yrs to have $2m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $20k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life
How did you manage to achieve that level of growth? I've been trying everything I can to improve my investments, l want to retire in a few years and I need a better diversification
These companies don't pay dividends so it really doesn't matter how good their business is. All that matters is if you can find someone dumber than you to sell the stock to.
Berkshire Hathaway for example - never paid dividends. However, the stock price of Class A shares went from 20k per share in 1990s to 700k now - 3,500 % capital appreciation
The thing is, if this is a bubble just about to burst, this must be the most anticipated and covered bubble in history. I mean it's been for more than 2 years that I've been reading and watching this kinds of warnings. However it's true that mass media is not specially talking about this, and also nowadays information and media like UA-cam and social networks provide such a quantity of content and such decentralized (as this vid for instance) that my first statement could be biased by that. The fact is, the correction will come, as naturally as leaves fall due to gravity. Despite all, I've been receiving warnings from a lot of different sources to the point that if the market collapses I won't be surprised. But boy I'm hell of invested by now, I hope it's not as hard as 01 or 08... Or the combination of both.
Yes, I think you’re just more aware now. I definitely remember some boggle heads and early Mötley fool people talking about a coming crash back in the day. I was young enough that I didn’t do anything differently and just dollar cost averaged my way upward…
The Buffet Indicator is now 208 of GDP and the private debt is at 2007 levels The markets will deflate or burst and the investors are in magical thinking mode
The thing about 'The Madness of Crowds' is you can still make a lot of money consciously going along with the madness. In my retail investing life which started in 1997, I've seen a number of bear markets. The consistent thing about each one is the general sentiment among professional commentators, industry insiders, etc. was they had no clue it was coming (or at least didn't admit it publicly).
Howard Mark's: "Everyone's asking me if we're in a bubble. I don't think so,but markets aren't cheap. Everyone else: Howard Mark's says we're in a bubble!!!
The PE ratio isn't a great predictor of upcoming stock market direction but when at extremes the CAPE can often provide a pretty good indication of what's to come. It's currently sitting at it's 3rd highest point ever, suggesting the market is incredibly expensive. The market doesn't typically reach this point without a pretty nasty correction not too long after. Sure, the market might keep going for a while longer, but if history suggests average returns over the coming decade will be +/-2% and that there's a very high likelihood of a painful correction around the corner, why take the risk. Especially if there are low risk options returning 3-4%.
i really enjoyed this one, thanks! also, may i ask your mic? SM58? your vocal sounds great, so many people invest in a SM7B and don't set things up properly, sounding lousy... whatever you're signal chain is audio wise, it sounds great man
It's only a 2% ROI over 10 years if you don't buy the dips/DCA. If I'd merely held my Tesla shares from 4 years ago I'd probably be up about 8%. Instead I'm up 100% because I used the low points as buying opportunities to load up on more.
CORRECTION: There is a group of clients saying "no price is too high". That group is all of the megacap tech companies that have been buying up Nvidia GPU's. These companies are literally paying the same price as a brand new car for each chip they purchase. That isn't going to last much longer. And that buying frenzy is the only thing propping up the entire AI rally at this stage.
Yes! The buying frenzy in AI stock is like a self-fulfilling prophecy that increases FOMO. Its like a Ponzi scheme...just wait till they start selling the stock!
This is sensible. But when America sneezes... In reality it's difficult to know whether a bubble centred on a handful of superhuge tech stocks will, when it bursts, spread to other stock classes, either in the US or elsewhere. Panic is the final (5th) stage of a bubble: historically it has tended to be contagious, far beyond anything rationality can explain.
In April 2023 Nvidia's forward P/E ratio was 140 !...now it's around 40. That in itself is a massive sign that these ratios are extremely misleading and probably incorrect.
I definitely agree about the PE from an investors perspective, however I actually think that a lot of what happens is fund managers looking for ‘safe’ places to put their clients money. They will happily buy an nvidia at PE of 30 if it meets ESG criteria, looks like it’s increasing earnings and everyone else is doing it to! Although as investors we know this is not the right way to think about a PE, it’s safe to say I can understand why certain companies will trade at higher PE’s than justified.
thank you! there's a form on the Berkshire website you can fill out to receive your pass or you can collect a pass physically at the venue the day before.
Always make sure to factor in U.S. dollar currency debasement into your formulas, when you do you will see quality global stocks are actually not as expensive as you think. If you value stocks in $GOLD, $SILVER or $BTC you will also see that they are getting cheaper and cheaper during this time. Think about it.
This is the same video threat from 2022, 2023, 2024…. Yeah it’s going to happen…. Sometime. Be ready and have cash to invest on the bottom upswing…..simple.
Guess we'll see what happens longer term, but I recently anti-timed the market. Mid-December I decided to invest a good deal of money I'd had sitting on the sidelines (half to invest long term decade+, half I won't need for at least 3 years) in some index funds. Immediately the S&P lost 3% in a single day and has dropped another 1% since. Can't know the future, but RIP losing over a half a year of long term S&P performance in under a month.
Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves. - Peter Lynch
So basically you say that stocks are like fads or high fashion. Like Beanie Babies or Fidget Spinners. That would make Elon Musk the Karl Lagerfeld of electric cars and space junk.
Back in the late summer of 1929, a certain Wall Street broker started getting tips from the shoe shine boy, after paying the lad, he went back to his office and sold nearly all his stocks; the S & P fell that Sept, beginning the depressed 1930's. I personally don't believe we are there yet, if only for the believers in Trump et al. But, if the US market goes up, appreciably, these first 2025 two quarters...it's up to you to decide...
Stocks are not really going up. The value of money is going down exponentially until the US dollar becomes worthless. If you know the dollar is going to be worth close to nothing in 5 or 10 years but some of these stocks should still be around then it makes sense to trade dollars for overpriced stocks. This is the end of the 80-100 year long term debt cycle. Asset prices don’t crash down, they melt up. Currency is what becomes worthless. The US dollar is only valuable as a medium of exchange now and not a store of value.
A few logic flaws-US Dollar is at the records highs in decades against major currencies and have no sighns of slowing its growth. Another is assets-stocks are not assets, they can and do crash from time to time regardless of inflation/sentiment/economy
@ same thing happened to the German mark in Weimar Germany. I never said US dollar will fail first. It probably won’t, but all the current currencies will be replaced with superior technology, not just the usd. It will just hit Americans harder than most other people. Just because you want this to be false, doesn’t mean it is.
Its funny how people think that US Dollar is going busted, while in reality it is the strongest currency and getting stronger every year against all other currencies for more than a decade now. The thing that will happen is that all other currencies will be worthless against US Dollar ,
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YoR0pAV9FVQ/mqdefault.jpg)
Happy New Year! Back to weekly videos now :) The Howard Marks memo is linked in the description if you want to read it yourself.
Weekly stock crash prediction incoming
it will be right, one day
You said it brother...
@@lukasvymetal2665 Even broken clock is right twice a day
Eh, give it 2-3 years, you'll see a crash within this cycle. Best bet is to have cash on hand or keep your money in anti inflationary stuff. Buffet exited the market, holding a record amount of cash. The credit borrowing (as well as default) amount muricans are at, is at an all time high. Also, the scarily similar current patterns on the overall market chart when you zoom out from years to decades to the 2007-2008 crash and even the great depression. The now slightly decreasing or stagnating housing prices (in Florida, no one is buying homes that have dropped as much as 20-30% from their initial listed selling price). And everything listed in this video. Not to mention if trump actually implements what he said he would, it would put upwards pressure on price with no stated plan to balance that pressure on the consumer side. Mass deportation, sweeping tariffs, union busting, pro merger/monopoly are all pro owner/producer with not a single policy to balance it on the consumer side. Mass deportation is going to put upwards pressure on prices, so will tariffs. Mergers will make it so there's no incentive to not price gouge as much as the consumer can afford due to no other choice on the consumer side, the only reason a monopoly wouldn't is out of the kindness of their hearts. All I'll say is, better safe than sorry.
@@lukasvymetal2665keep betting on 19 on roulette. ittl be right once
Hey man, big shoutout to you and your colleagues for posting content like this. Just a couple of years back, I was working 14-hour shifts as a waiter, and I would watch different investing videos like this non-stop. They gave me confidence and hope that making money investing was actually possible.
Now I’ve built a six-figure portfolio and partnered with different foundations aimed at helping the deaf community. Honestly, videos like these were a major reason I’m here today.
I love this!!!!! Pls, how did you grow your portfolio? I would really appreciate any tips or information you provide... I spend extravagantly though I have created myself a spreadsheet for my finances.
To be honest, I am not an expert myself, so I can't help with tips. I work with Michael Allen Eckrich. He's a licensed expert and from a credible firm. You could also look him up and consider working with him if you're interested.
I have heard this F.A's name mentioned a couple of times during IAPd seminars. Thank you very much for your reply.
Price/Earnings ratios are overcooked but trying to time the market is a mug's game.
A certain "Warren Buffett" (made-up name?) writes to me, from somewhere obscure in Nebraska, assuring me that he's not "timing" anything, but that he "simply can't find anything worth buying right now" (!) so has a third of his "wealth" (such as it may be) in T-bills right now. Rather disingenuous, if I may say so, "Warren" (if that really is your name!).
when you can take huge profits and park them in 5% bonds who needs to time anything?
The overall P/E is high, but if you look at a majority of the market, things are not insane. It is a relatively small portion of the market that is a bit nuts, but even then, most of those high P/E companies are making money and growing like crazy.
market growth is high aswell and it might be going up even further
@ and the moment earnings forecasts start to get sandbagged valuations crash 20%
You work for 42yrs to have $2m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $20k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life
How did you manage to achieve that level of growth? I've been trying everything I can to improve my investments, l want to retire in a few years and I need a better diversification
It's Katherine Grace Maier doing, she's changed my life.
The first time we had tried, we invested €14,000 and after a week we received €50,230. That really helped us a lot to pay our bills.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
she's mostly on Instagrams, using the user name
welcome back Hamish and Happy new year. Hope you dont get sick too much this year
thank you! 2025 will be the year of good health 😆
These companies don't pay dividends so it really doesn't matter how good their business is. All that matters is if you can find someone dumber than you to sell the stock to.
Berkshire Hathaway for example - never paid dividends. However, the stock price of Class A shares went from 20k per share in 1990s to 700k now - 3,500 % capital appreciation
You have 0 understanding of the stock market do you?
@drexelspivey872 no, you
The thing is, if this is a bubble just about to burst, this must be the most anticipated and covered bubble in history. I mean it's been for more than 2 years that I've been reading and watching this kinds of warnings. However it's true that mass media is not specially talking about this, and also nowadays information and media like UA-cam and social networks provide such a quantity of content and such decentralized (as this vid for instance) that my first statement could be biased by that. The fact is, the correction will come, as naturally as leaves fall due to gravity. Despite all, I've been receiving warnings from a lot of different sources to the point that if the market collapses I won't be surprised. But boy I'm hell of invested by now, I hope it's not as hard as 01 or 08... Or the combination of both.
Once they start dragging people out by the hair, tides will shift in a bad way…
@@Daniel7evens
And vice versa.
@@David_Lloyd-Jones reverse
Yes, I think you’re just more aware now. I definitely remember some boggle heads and early Mötley fool people talking about a coming crash back in the day. I was young enough that I didn’t do anything differently and just dollar cost averaged my way upward…
Yes tHis TiME itS dIFFereNt
The Buffet Indicator is now 208 of GDP and the private debt is at 2007 levels
The markets will deflate or burst and the investors are in magical thinking mode
The thing about 'The Madness of Crowds' is you can still make a lot of money consciously going along with the madness. In my retail investing life which started in 1997, I've seen a number of bear markets. The consistent thing about each one is the general sentiment among professional commentators, industry insiders, etc. was they had no clue it was coming (or at least didn't admit it publicly).
Howard Mark's: "Everyone's asking me if we're in a bubble. I don't think so,but markets aren't cheap.
Everyone else: Howard Mark's says we're in a bubble!!!
What's the title of the memo again?
Instead of worrying about stock markets, why don't you learn how to use apostrophes correctly?
His name is "Howard Marks".
Time in the market beats timing the market. If a 50% market drop scares you, you seriously need to reevaluate your portfolio's asset allocation
Yuppers. Called "hedging" and using the "sharpe ratio"!
The PE ratio isn't a great predictor of upcoming stock market direction but when at extremes the CAPE can often provide a pretty good indication of what's to come. It's currently sitting at it's 3rd highest point ever, suggesting the market is incredibly expensive. The market doesn't typically reach this point without a pretty nasty correction not too long after. Sure, the market might keep going for a while longer, but if history suggests average returns over the coming decade will be +/-2% and that there's a very high likelihood of a painful correction around the corner, why take the risk. Especially if there are low risk options returning 3-4%.
Superb video analogy at the opening!
do you have a link to the jp morgan paper which has the chart shown at 10:57?
i really enjoyed this one, thanks! also, may i ask your mic? SM58? your vocal sounds great, so many people invest in a SM7B and don't set things up properly, sounding lousy... whatever you're signal chain is audio wise, it sounds great man
Great vid. Let’s cook that bubble a bit more. Anecdotally only 15% of my friends are risk on in market. Ways to go according to this young man
thanks for watching!
Always good to see you Hamish, David, UK 👍🏼.
thanks David!
The best way to play the markets IMO is every red day for your stock or stocks buy, especially if it’s a good company with good fundamentals
Brilliant stuff mate👍👍
is there divergence between main street and wall street is it getting wider ?
Dr. Howard Marks is full of wisdom
It's only a 2% ROI over 10 years if you don't buy the dips/DCA. If I'd merely held my Tesla shares from 4 years ago I'd probably be up about 8%. Instead I'm up 100% because I used the low points as buying opportunities to load up on more.
CORRECTION: There is a group of clients saying "no price is too high". That group is all of the megacap tech companies that have been buying up Nvidia GPU's. These companies are literally paying the same price as a brand new car for each chip they purchase. That isn't going to last much longer. And that buying frenzy is the only thing propping up the entire AI rally at this stage.
Yes! The buying frenzy in AI stock is like a self-fulfilling prophecy that increases FOMO. Its like a Ponzi scheme...just wait till they start selling the stock!
I took this year to imvest in other countries. I dont think there will be a collapse this year, but the risk is too high to stay invested in the us
This is sensible. But when America sneezes... In reality it's difficult to know whether a bubble centred on a handful of superhuge tech stocks will, when it bursts, spread to other stock classes, either in the US or elsewhere. Panic is the final (5th) stage of a bubble: historically it has tended to be contagious, far beyond anything rationality can explain.
@mikerodent3164 I own small caps that have ober 80% earnings outside the US. If I want to minimize us risk, I wanna do it right
If there’s a collapse how do you know it won’t affect other countries?
It will affect all stock markets but for the companies not directly related to the AI rally, the recovery will likely be quicker
How to make qualitative analysis. Pls explore more about this or expectinga reply
Forward pe ratios always sound cool, but what if that is also way too optimistic? Then Nvidia doesnt trade at 30 but rather at a 50 or 60 pe next year
agreed. forward earnings work until they don't
In April 2023 Nvidia's forward P/E ratio was 140 !...now it's around 40.
That in itself is a massive sign that these ratios are extremely misleading and probably incorrect.
I definitely agree about the PE from an investors perspective, however I actually think that a lot of what happens is fund managers looking for ‘safe’ places to put their clients money. They will happily buy an nvidia at PE of 30 if it meets ESG criteria, looks like it’s increasing earnings and everyone else is doing it to! Although as investors we know this is not the right way to think about a PE, it’s safe to say I can understand why certain companies will trade at higher PE’s than justified.
No bullshit this video changed my life and I just watched it
Been hearing this since 2008.
Good to see a fresh vid Hamish. Strange question… but how do you get your “invite” to the berkshire meeting after owning a share?
thank you! there's a form on the Berkshire website you can fill out to receive your pass or you can collect a pass physically at the venue the day before.
@ Thanks Hamish, one day i’ll go over to omaha. From west oz here.
I was wondering where the hell is that Aussie Hamish Macbeth gone?! Good to see you back mate!
welcome back, don't forget to come and share your useful ideas, we are waiting for.
Always make sure to factor in U.S. dollar currency debasement into your formulas, when you do you will see quality global stocks are actually not as expensive as you think. If you value stocks in $GOLD, $SILVER or $BTC you will also see that they are getting cheaper and cheaper during this time. Think about it.
Great warning
"POP" isn't that what happens to bubbles?
even a broken clock is right twice a day
Yield curve when it uninverted we shall see.
I just commented on the last video to where are your videos !!!!!
im back!
Tesla is an extreme example.
This is the same video threat from 2022, 2023, 2024…. Yeah it’s going to happen…. Sometime. Be ready and have cash to invest on the bottom upswing…..simple.
actually it was about to happen in 2020s when USA saved banking financing sector with trillions and boosted spending among people
Sure hope you got the express written consent of Oaktree to use his podcast
Guess we'll see what happens longer term, but I recently anti-timed the market. Mid-December I decided to invest a good deal of money I'd had sitting on the sidelines (half to invest long term decade+, half I won't need for at least 3 years) in some index funds. Immediately the S&P lost 3% in a single day and has dropped another 1% since. Can't know the future, but RIP losing over a half a year of long term S&P performance in under a month.
If people in the market for long game then if it crashes then even better cus you buy things at a discount!
So what are you saying?
That there are signs of a bubble but no one can predict these things very accurately
I believe there is a spelling mistake in your title.
oops, thanks 😎
This is how i know we are about to moon again
Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves. - Peter Lynch
You are screwed both ways. By inflation and the risk of stocks crashing.
Everything can be a bubble, even the price of gold.
This sounds EXACTLY like every Tesla stock investor. tO tHe MoOn DiAmOnD hAnDs! Derp! $800 price target PE of 300! No price too high!
If you bought a stock too high ,sell it
Big crash tomorrow, chances 70%. Mostly the quantum like RGTI and technology stocks . Play safe
Fear index is high. Euphoria isn't there. We still have more to go.
SELL!!
For more than a year your videos are about the market crashing
They want you out. So you'll get back in
And buy leap puts for magnificent 7 stocks… Tesla in particular is the weakest of them all in PE, margins and anticipated growth.
So basically you say that stocks are like fads or high fashion. Like Beanie Babies or Fidget Spinners. That would make Elon Musk the Karl Lagerfeld of electric cars and space junk.
the music is stupid
“Is the stock market Is about to collapse”
I'm a little rusty, haven't done this in a while... 😆
If I had a dime for every time I’ve heard that I could retire today. Even if it does crash it’ll rise up twice as high within a few years.
@@HamishHodderNever gonna live it down now. That guy said it in the comments.😂
All your base is belong to us
DCA
Back in the late summer of 1929, a certain Wall Street broker started getting tips from the shoe shine boy, after paying the lad, he went back to his office and sold nearly all his stocks; the S & P fell that Sept, beginning the depressed 1930's. I personally don't believe we are there yet, if only for the believers in Trump et al. But, if the US market goes up, appreciably, these first 2025 two quarters...it's up to you to decide...
The opposite of everything in this video is truth
The daily BS.
That AI reading of investopedia articles is very annoying.
I for one sincerely hope those advanced next generation cyborgs are getting their fair share of royalties for all their efforts.
not AI, Howard Marks records the audio version of his memos :)
not AI, Howard Marks records the audio version of his memos :)
Ditch the awkward AI reader, total turn off
What is the average P/E in your portfolio? Don't know? Find out it's not hard. Don't be a victim.
AI voice reading quotes is very obnoxious
No bubble, only up
👍
Is Bitcoin's P/E too high
Full of
Thank you Lord Jesus for the gift of life and blessings to me and my family $14,120.47 weekly profit Our lord Jesus have lifted up my Life!!!🙏❤️❤️
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
Elizabeth stark
Though I started with as low as $5,000 actually because it was my tirst time and it Was successful, She's is a great personality in the state
+123
9770
Stocks are not really going up.
The value of money is going down exponentially until the US dollar becomes worthless.
If you know the dollar is going to be worth close to nothing in 5 or 10 years but some of these stocks should still be around then it makes sense to trade dollars for overpriced stocks.
This is the end of the 80-100 year long term debt cycle.
Asset prices don’t crash down, they melt up.
Currency is what becomes worthless.
The US dollar is only valuable as a medium of exchange now and not a store of value.
A few logic flaws-US Dollar is at the records highs in decades against major currencies and have no sighns of slowing its growth. Another is assets-stocks are not assets, they can and do crash from time to time regardless of inflation/sentiment/economy
@ same thing happened to the German mark in Weimar Germany.
I never said US dollar will fail first. It probably won’t, but all the current currencies will be replaced with superior technology, not just the usd.
It will just hit Americans harder than most other people.
Just because you want this to be false, doesn’t mean it is.
Its funny how people think that US Dollar is going busted, while in reality it is the strongest currency and getting stronger every year against all other currencies for more than a decade now. The thing that will happen is that all other currencies will be worthless against US Dollar ,
@ 😂😂😂 your answer is a combination of nationalistic pride and ignorance… I love it. The more people that “think” like you, the richer I get.
Have you tried to go overseas? US Dollar is king in any country, beating all currencies to dust.
ZZZZZZZZZZZ.............................