⏩ The Housing Market Is Finally SHIFTING - ua-cam.com/video/Kp9Yc9tb8ho/v-deo.html ✅ - Work Directly with My Team (Mortgage and Real Estate Nationwide) - www.jebsmith.net/referral 🏠 - First Time Home Buyer Course - bit.ly/4clhsse
They are building like crazy all over Florida. Builders are renting out houses they can’t sale to construction workers from Texas…shadow inventory. The income in Florida is too low for the current housing market. Once construction dries up so do the only half way decent paying jobs. It’s unsustainable, just like in the early in 2000,s. There are 47 houses for sale in my 10 mile drive to work. Some streets have the exact same brand new houses for sale side by side. 5 houses on my street alone 2 of which have been for sale for more than a year. Starting to see more and more existing homes to pop up for sale I think BC of the increase in insurance. A crash is definitely coming in Florida. It’s unsustainable. Not to mention the condos that are in absolutely terrible condition. I have lived her since 89. I have seen it all before.
As a FL insurance agent, what you said is 100% true. I always feel bad for clients who call a couple weeks before closing just to figure out the insurance for the home is going to be several thousand dollars and their realtor didn’t warn them BEFORE going under contract. Even worse if they’re in a flood zone, because now you’re also required to flood insurance. To everyone reading, NEVER BUY IN A FLOOD ZONE. The sticker shock usually comes worst for out of staters moving here that had no idea. Moreover, over 80 insurance companies have pulled out of FL in the past 2 years, and that’s number is rising. FL is on track to become the next CA. And new builds are terrible construction here. Thanks as always for the great video Jeb!
Ive been in Florida since 2010. I agree with everything you've said. I will add that wages are lower here than many parts of the country, so that must have an effect on the market. I'd like to see data on who's been buying here, outside of Miami. I'm on the west coast and it feels like its mostly retired mid west?
Miami will crash as well, maybe horribly, in my opinion. People bought in unfinished luxury high rises at $3000 to $6000 a square foot not including monthly HOA and taxes. Many will take the hit and back out. Irrational exuberance all over again in the housing mkt. With a looming recession and white collar layoffs coming in a huge way this will only exacerbate the foreclosure rates. You already see people dropping prices, bit people who want out need to cut prices by 40% and run!
Central FL we have lots of neighbors who were work from home when they came down. Many are back to office in some capacity. A few travel back to NY and a few others we know are actively trying to sell because they want to keep their jobs. Like you said, FL does not have the number of high paying jobs like other places.
Thanks Mate, the sad truth is that no one has a clue, we all react to what happens as it happens and try to analyse it but can’t predict an iota of what is going to unfold in the markets… content creators are like amplifiers, when times are good they affirm it and try to tell you why it’s good and that it’s looking bullish but then all of a sudden the market turns bearish and everyone affirms it again and try to analyse why… it’s so sad that many are so powerless and it's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 19Bitcoin in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Simple, google the 100 year CPI index vs the Case Schiller Housing Index from 2002 to 2024. 02 to 08 the CSHI got overheated and crashed down to 2013(where homes are properly valued) now look how far away the CSHI got away from the 100 year CPI index. The worst part is, interest rates are not going down. Many, many people moved to Florida and saw a quick double in their home prices and decided to be a RE guru and took out adjustable rate loan to by more homes to rent out. These home are all NEGATIVE equity. the adjustable rate loan payments are so high the rent they are receiving does not cover the payments. Take in the massive rise in taxes and insurance, there is a tsunami headed to Florida, especially south east Florida. Couples with the fact the many of the high rises that are 30 years old with fixed income owners, starting 2025 all of these condos have to sure up their reserve accounts by law (triple and quadruple HOA's which fixed income owners cannot afford) Greed got Florida bad and it takes a few to have to foreclose out or sell at deep discounts which can reset areas prices down fast. give it 2 to 3 years and you will have a buyers paradise. JMHO!
In California, Prop 13 caps property tax at 2% increment a year. Therefore, to be fair for these properties' rental rates should also be capped at a certain percentage. In other words, rent control.
I am buying a home in FL average 4bed 3 bath 380k 2,600 square feet. 5 percent interest .... that's the average.. I saw 34 homes in 1 month. I am scheduled to look at 6 more this week. Before deciding. This is North Central FL on New Construction.
Fact, each year my insurance has almost doubled in last three years, no claims....sorry but the average income does not, unless you wish to be house poor, does not match home prices.
We are reliving 2007 and to think banks are lending out loans for $600k homes to people with multiple jobs. It’s actually really sad what’s going on. I moved to FL in 2010 purchased two homes but never at the price they want now and in locations I would never moved too.
Beach front apartment for $450.000k … is rented for $3k right now … I don’t know if I should buy it or not, are prices going up ? Down ? I heard the HOA will triple in the next couple years. I’m really lost ! I want to buy it to use it twice a year for myself for few weeks and rent it the rest of the time. I live in the Bay Area California now.
Hi. REALTOR®️ in Jacksonville, Florida here. I can tell you certain areas, the inventory is higher than normal, but there are a lot of lipstick on pig homes where the investors come in and do a crappy flip job. These homes are just sitting. Buyers are savvy in this market in my opinion and know better to get involved with a flip has not done well. We also have a lot of new builds popping up in area such as St Augustine/St. Johns county and the northside that has added to our inventory. I do agree with you about the condo and insurance concerns , however.
@@JebSmith prices are stabilizing here. In some areas, we have multiple offers. Other areas, it’s taking a little bit longer to sell. Homes have to be listed at market value, but market value is definitely difficult because what buyers are valuing are different than what sellers are asking. We are seeing price reductions, but nothing too dramatic. Overall, we are still higher than last year with our numbers. Inventory has risen though, but I am someone that’s heavily on the ground and have multiple buyers desperately looking for the right house. There’s just been a lot of garbage that’s come out unfortunately. Our buyers are extra extra picky or just know what they want. If a home has been properly taken care of, updated well, and has all the four points in good standing (buyers who are financing will be able to obtain insurance), and the home has been priced well, you most likely will see it go to multiple offers and/or go quickly. Investors are still percolating here though. We’ve gotten a lot from Atlanta that have come down here, knowing that Jacksonville was a hot market to invest. However, I feel that might be slowing down soon.
Also in the same area as you. Im seeing alot more homes come on the market and imo the prices are way too high. To me it seems that homes in the $600-$850k range are moving extremely slow if at all. The houses are overpriced by about 20-30% and I can forsee heavy price cuts in the next 6-12 months.
The constant flow of seniors that florida has always relied on are choosing more affordable places to retire, and we are facing what is expected to be the worst hurricane seasons in history. People who recently bought are already 10-20% underwater because homes are just sitting with no buyers.
Interest rates aren’t coming down. USA is doing this to pay their debt and that is why inflation is happening as well. Prices will continue to drop. Interest rates will stay the same if not go down a point or so. Yes, when you renovate a house it technically goes up in value but houses aren’t selling for top dollar anymore.
Ive been living in FL for 5 yrs now, and unfortunately will have to find a job out of state. The state is nearing its breaking point. House prices are still 30-40% inflated (average house price is 350k for a mediocre house from the 70's) and even if you can afford that, you probably wont be able to afford the insurance. You'll also be paying 2-3k a year in car insurance even if you have 0 accidents to your name. Florida is a ticking time bomb, and i will not be here when shit hits the fan.
If greedy flipers and sellers would stop trying to get the highest price ever heard of an took reasonable offers then I would move back to my hometown of Jacksonville with cash offer. These flippers who cover up the pig with lipstick and expect all time high prices driving up insurance and tax values and making it unaffordable !
You won't be able to give away homes in FL. With mortgage rates, HOA fees are in hundreds of thousands for special assessments while regular monthly HOA fees are doubling from 1500 to 3000 month. Now insurance companies are leaving FL and charging crazy rates. Don't buy in FL. Your paradise will turn into hell.
The other issue is the property tax. Buyers see the tax the original owner paid and think that is what they will pay. The property tax can go from $4000 to $8000 because of the house price. So property tax, insurance, higher interest rates and the increased price of homes make it difficult for a family to afford. One other issue that may increase supply are the Equity Owned/Hedge Fund and privately owned rentals. Rent compared to the cost of all mentioned above plus the fact the owners are taxed on the earning from rent make the prospect of investment property less lucrative and more prone to be added to the supply of available homes for sale.
the property tax shouldn't be an issue as it's recalculated my the lender when going through the loan approval. The bigger issue with property taxes in my opinion are those that have owned for a long time and then get reaccessed at current values.
Yeah, property taxes are higher than many other states that are more expensive overall. CO, for instance, has lower property taxes, from where I've searched, there. Homestead exemption, which I have, helps in FL.
Would be so greatfull if someone can comment the nuance between "supply and demand" and "supply and want". In my own situation, I dont need or demand a single family house. But I want one. And because of this, I do not have to buy a million dollar house simply because it isnt a neccesity and therefore not a demand. Instead, I can stay in a condo or my starter home with no debt at all. "Demand" is a roof over my head and saftey for my family which can happen with a condo or an appartment. It seems to me at a certain pricepoint, the demand for a million dollar house or a castle for that matter will not be met because eventhough it is a big part of an american dream it simply is not necceity. Right now slowing sales is proof that people can wait. They dont "need" to buy now because its not a demand and therefore can stay where they are. And what the market is beginning to do is meet the buyers more and more at what buyers want (not need) to pay. Would love to hear your thoughts.
We go between FL and Texas. My concern in FL is that Fl simply does not have the amount of high paying jobs like Texas. Texas has long been attracting big corporations prior to Covid. FL boomed with the work from home people , so people moved in making their salaries from higher paying areas.. more and more companies are pushing return to office in some capacity. Those people won’t find jobs that pay that high in FL. I have a feeling that is another aspect of the mess. We know people who are trying to leave FL because of this reason and sadly they are having to list their homes for less than what they paid for it. We saw a big price correction in DFW Texas last summer and now prices are steady and a more normal range. Great content ! Thanks for covering some FL info.
Correct. Lack of buyers but you have to look at why. Renting is 50% cheaper and you will get a WAY nicer home/apartment for the price. Prices ARE coming down and will continue to fall. Interest rates will stay the same if not, maybe 1-2% less.
Your main points are valid and definitely concerns for those of us in the Florida market. Of course, there are nuances with all of your points that would be of value to understand for anyone watching who may be interested in buying or selling in Florida. Happy to chat on camera if your viewers want more info!
Every one keeps scaring up a crashing market and it never happens. We are in a 30 year bubble in Florida. Fuck these out of state investors and people who have priced local floridians out of the market
⏩ The Housing Market Is Finally SHIFTING - ua-cam.com/video/Kp9Yc9tb8ho/v-deo.html
✅ - Work Directly with My Team (Mortgage and Real Estate Nationwide) - www.jebsmith.net/referral
🏠 - First Time Home Buyer Course - bit.ly/4clhsse
They are building like crazy all over Florida. Builders are renting out houses they can’t sale to construction workers from Texas…shadow inventory. The income in Florida is too low for the current housing market. Once construction dries up so do the only half way decent paying jobs. It’s unsustainable, just like in the early in 2000,s. There are 47 houses for sale in my 10 mile drive to work. Some streets have the exact same brand new houses for sale side by side. 5 houses on my street alone 2 of which have been for sale for more than a year. Starting to see more and more existing homes to pop up for sale I think BC of the increase in insurance. A crash is definitely coming in Florida. It’s unsustainable. Not to mention the condos that are in absolutely terrible condition. I have lived her since 89. I have seen it all before.
Inventory is not low
As a FL insurance agent, what you said is 100% true. I always feel bad for clients who call a couple weeks before closing just to figure out the insurance for the home is going to be several thousand dollars and their realtor didn’t warn them BEFORE going under contract. Even worse if they’re in a flood zone, because now you’re also required to flood insurance. To everyone reading, NEVER BUY IN A FLOOD ZONE. The sticker shock usually comes worst for out of staters moving here that had no idea. Moreover, over 80 insurance companies have pulled out of FL in the past 2 years, and that’s number is rising. FL is on track to become the next CA. And new builds are terrible construction here. Thanks as always for the great video Jeb!
Ive been in Florida since 2010. I agree with everything you've said. I will add that wages are lower here than many parts of the country, so that must have an effect on the market. I'd like to see data on who's been buying here, outside of Miami. I'm on the west coast and it feels like its mostly retired mid west?
I think it's a lot of retirees along with those looking for a change in politics and taxes.
Miami will crash as well, maybe horribly, in my opinion. People bought in unfinished luxury high rises at $3000 to $6000 a square foot not including monthly HOA and taxes. Many will take the hit and back out. Irrational exuberance all over again in the housing mkt. With a looming recession and white collar layoffs coming in a huge way this will only exacerbate the foreclosure rates. You already see people dropping prices, bit people who want out need to cut prices by 40% and run!
Central FL we have lots of neighbors who were work from home when they came down. Many are back to office in some capacity. A few travel back to NY and a few others we know are actively trying to sell because they want to keep their jobs. Like you said, FL does not have the number of high paying jobs like other places.
Thanks Mate, the sad truth is that no one has a clue, we all react to what happens as it happens and try to analyse it but can’t predict an iota of what is going to unfold in the markets… content creators are like amplifiers, when times are good they affirm it and try to tell you why it’s good and that it’s looking bullish but then all of a sudden the market turns bearish and everyone affirms it again and try to analyse why… it’s so sad that many are so powerless and it's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 19Bitcoin in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Simple, google the 100 year CPI index vs the Case Schiller Housing Index from 2002 to 2024. 02 to 08 the CSHI got overheated and crashed down to 2013(where homes are properly valued) now look how far away the CSHI got away from the 100 year CPI index. The worst part is, interest rates are not going down. Many, many people moved to Florida and saw a quick double in their home prices and decided to be a RE guru and took out adjustable rate loan to by more homes to rent out. These home are all NEGATIVE equity. the adjustable rate loan payments are so high the rent they are receiving does not cover the payments. Take in the massive rise in taxes and insurance, there is a tsunami headed to Florida, especially south east Florida. Couples with the fact the many of the high rises that are 30 years old with fixed income owners, starting 2025 all of these condos have to sure up their reserve accounts by law (triple and quadruple HOA's which fixed income owners cannot afford) Greed got Florida bad and it takes a few to have to foreclose out or sell at deep discounts which can reset areas prices down fast. give it 2 to 3 years and you will have a buyers paradise. JMHO!
In California, Prop 13 caps property tax at 2% increment a year. Therefore, to be fair for these properties' rental rates should also be capped at a certain percentage. In other words, rent control.
I am buying a home in FL average 4bed 3 bath 380k 2,600 square feet. 5 percent interest .... that's the average.. I saw 34 homes in 1 month. I am scheduled to look at 6 more this week. Before deciding. This is North Central FL on New Construction.
More like 6.5-7.5 interest
@@MRBURNTTOAST111 if its a new build then the builder is buying down the rates. Ive been offered 5% myself.
Fact, each year my insurance has almost doubled in last three years, no claims....sorry but the average income does not, unless you wish to be house poor, does not match home prices.
Home ownership is off the table for me. Homes have gone up over 100,000 in my area. Apartments being built right now are starting at 350,000.
We are reliving 2007 and to think banks are lending out loans for $600k homes to people with multiple jobs. It’s actually really sad what’s going on. I moved to FL in 2010 purchased two homes but never at the price they want now and in locations I would never moved too.
Beach front apartment for $450.000k … is rented for $3k right now … I don’t know if I should buy it or not, are prices going up ? Down ? I heard the HOA will triple in the next couple years. I’m really lost ! I want to buy it to use it twice a year for myself for few weeks and rent it the rest of the time.
I live in the Bay Area California now.
40% correction coming near you. 18% increase already in inventory. Last call was called about two weeks ago.
Wrong Again!
@@JebSmith he is wrong because it's more like a 50% correction
Real Estate is always local, some areas will see fallen prices and some areas will not
Hi. REALTOR®️ in Jacksonville, Florida here. I can tell you certain areas, the inventory is higher than normal, but there are a lot of lipstick on pig homes where the investors come in and do a crappy flip job. These homes are just sitting. Buyers are savvy in this market in my opinion and know better to get involved with a flip has not done well. We also have a lot of new builds popping up in area such as St Augustine/St. Johns county and the northside that has added to our inventory.
I do agree with you about the condo and insurance concerns , however.
That's very helpful..............I appreciate the insight from someone local to the market. What are you seeing with prices?
@@JebSmith prices are stabilizing here.
In some areas, we have multiple offers. Other areas, it’s taking a little bit longer to sell. Homes have to be listed at market value, but market value is definitely difficult because what buyers are valuing are different than what sellers are asking. We are seeing price reductions, but nothing too dramatic. Overall, we are still higher than last year with our numbers. Inventory has risen though, but I am someone that’s heavily on the ground and have multiple buyers desperately looking for the right house. There’s just been a lot of garbage that’s come out unfortunately. Our buyers are extra extra picky or just know what they want.
If a home has been properly taken care of, updated well, and has all the four points in good standing (buyers who are financing will be able to obtain insurance), and the home has been priced well, you most likely will see it go to multiple offers and/or go quickly.
Investors are still percolating here though. We’ve gotten a lot from Atlanta that have come down here, knowing that Jacksonville was a hot market to invest. However, I feel that might be slowing down soon.
Also in the same area as you. Im seeing alot more homes come on the market and imo the prices are way too high. To me it seems that homes in the $600-$850k range are moving extremely slow if at all. The houses are overpriced by about 20-30% and I can forsee heavy price cuts in the next 6-12 months.
The constant flow of seniors that florida has always relied on are choosing more affordable places to retire, and we are facing what is expected to be the worst hurricane seasons in history. People who recently bought are already 10-20% underwater because homes are just sitting with no buyers.
Which markets are you speaking of specifically?
Palm Beach County.
Interest rates aren’t coming down. USA is doing this to pay their debt and that is why inflation is happening as well. Prices will continue to drop. Interest rates will stay the same if not go down a point or so. Yes, when you renovate a house it technically goes up in value but houses aren’t selling for top dollar anymore.
I beg to differ
@Ben-kh4le I’m not complaining buddy. I’m just telling you what’s going on.
Really good advice and great video!
Glad you liked it!
Ive been living in FL for 5 yrs now, and unfortunately will have to find a job out of state. The state is nearing its breaking point.
House prices are still 30-40% inflated (average house price is 350k for a mediocre house from the 70's) and even if you can afford that, you probably wont be able to afford the insurance. You'll also be paying 2-3k a year in car insurance even if you have 0 accidents to your name.
Florida is a ticking time bomb, and i will not be here when shit hits the fan.
If greedy flipers and sellers would stop trying to get the highest price ever heard of an took reasonable offers then I would move back to my hometown of Jacksonville with cash offer. These flippers who cover up the pig with lipstick and expect all time high prices driving up insurance and tax values and making it unaffordable !
you mentioned Tampa and Jacksonville. Any relevant Data you found on your research in the Orlando Metro Area?
You won't be able to give away homes in FL. With mortgage rates, HOA fees are in hundreds of thousands for special assessments while regular monthly HOA fees are doubling from 1500 to 3000 month. Now insurance companies are leaving FL and charging crazy rates. Don't buy in FL. Your paradise will turn into hell.
I'll be happy to take a home anyone is looking to give away!
@@JebSmith ok and once you get, even for free, still gotta pay insurance, taxes, upkeep and HOA.
The other issue is the property tax. Buyers see the tax the original owner paid and think that is what they will pay. The property tax can go from $4000 to $8000 because of the house price.
So property tax, insurance, higher interest rates and the increased price of homes make it difficult for a family to afford.
One other issue that may increase supply are the Equity Owned/Hedge Fund and privately owned rentals. Rent compared to the cost of all mentioned above plus the fact the owners are taxed on the earning from rent make the prospect of investment property less lucrative and more prone to be added to the supply of available homes for sale.
the property tax shouldn't be an issue as it's recalculated my the lender when going through the loan approval. The bigger issue with property taxes in my opinion are those that have owned for a long time and then get reaccessed at current values.
Yeah, property taxes are higher than many other states that are more expensive overall. CO, for instance, has lower property taxes, from where I've searched, there. Homestead exemption, which I have, helps in FL.
4:59 through 5:30 This is what happens when all-knowing politicians interfere with free-market pricing. We get what we vote for.
Would be so greatfull if someone can comment the nuance between "supply and demand" and "supply and want". In my own situation, I dont need or demand a single family house. But I want one. And because of this, I do not have to buy a million dollar house simply because it isnt a neccesity and therefore not a demand. Instead, I can stay in a condo or my starter home with no debt at all. "Demand" is a roof over my head and saftey for my family which can happen with a condo or an appartment. It seems to me at a certain pricepoint, the demand for a million dollar house or a castle for that matter will not be met because eventhough it is a big part of an american dream it simply is not necceity. Right now slowing sales is proof that people can wait. They dont "need" to buy now because its not a demand and therefore can stay where they are. And what the market is beginning to do is meet the buyers more and more at what buyers want (not need) to pay. Would love to hear your thoughts.
We go between FL and Texas. My concern in FL is that Fl simply does not have the amount of high paying jobs like Texas. Texas has long been attracting big corporations prior to Covid. FL boomed with the work from home people , so people moved in making their salaries from higher paying areas.. more and more companies are pushing return to office in some capacity. Those people won’t find jobs that pay that high in FL. I have a feeling that is another aspect of the mess. We know people who are trying to leave FL because of this reason and sadly they are having to list their homes for less than what they paid for it. We saw a big price correction in DFW Texas last summer and now prices are steady and a more normal range. Great content ! Thanks for covering some FL info.
Yes wages are low which is why it’s crazy for people to overpay for homes here. A lot of people will lose on these houses
todays content Jeb it’s a cash cow 🐮 Michael bordenaro is killing it.
If providing terrible advice for the better part of 3 years is killing it then I guess you're right.
@@JebSmith 😁 okay just saying.
@@JebSmith What is terrible advice?
He's "killing it" on his UA-cam channel! Outside of that???
High inventory and lack of buyers is a recepie for meltdown. I hope we see a major correction !!!!
Correct. Lack of buyers but you have to look at why. Renting is 50% cheaper and you will get a WAY nicer home/apartment for the price. Prices ARE coming down and will continue to fall. Interest rates will stay the same if not, maybe 1-2% less.
Yep! Wait for it
I been waiting 4 years. It sucks
Sounds like it’s time for another collaboration!
I think that's a good idea.............I could be spreading propaganda, hahahaha. Let's set up something to chat about the market.
Your main points are valid and definitely concerns for those of us in the Florida market. Of course, there are nuances with all of your points that would be of value to understand for anyone watching who may be interested in buying or selling in Florida. Happy to chat on camera if your viewers want more info!
Prices need to drop in FL this is not 2020.
Fuck Florida is going underwater soon too expensive🤦🏽
Florida homes are overpriced.
Every one keeps scaring up a crashing market and it never happens. We are in a 30 year bubble in Florida. Fuck these out of state investors and people who have priced local floridians out of the market
click bait