In the last 3 days, when stock prices plunged Retail investors sold $1 Billion. Institutional investors bought +$14 Billion. This is Market manipulation at its finest.
Short term price movement is largely manipulated by market makers and algos (and later justified by ANAL-lyst using bullshit reasons) ... e.g. driving prices down to scare and force weak holders to sell....its like a game of poker... bluff the weak hands to fold their cards so the pros can grab their money and their shares more cheaply.
As smart investors who understand the true value of the underlying business, we never let the current market price guide us into the quality and success of our investments... i take advise from my fin Advisor that has developed a trusted strategy that allows the market serve us.....we take advantage of the emotions and stupidity of others to add great companies on the cheap.
That's really great. I've tried doing some research myself to hire a financial advisor, but it's really overwhelming. Could you recommend who you work with, please?
Annette Christine Conte is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
This recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.
Let's face it, increasing stock and index fund purchases during downturns and bear markets is unnerving. Which makes it very difficult for most people, like me, to do. It's challenging to incur the risk of investing the $1 million I have in an S&S.
That is correct. For the past 23 months, I've been in daily contact with a financial advisor. The difficult part of investing these days is determining when to sell or hold a company when it is trending. My supervisor can advise me on points of entry and exit in the sectors in which I am now active. I can't say I'm sorry because my profits increased by 63% in the third quarter of 2022.
I've been considering taking that path. I've kept a lot of stocks, but they're starting to depreciate, and I'm not sure if I should stick onto them or sell them. I believe restructuring my portfolio would be facilitated by engaging your investing coach.
Annette Christine Conte is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment...
Nobody can become financially successful overnight. They put in background work but we tend to see the finished part. Fear is a dangerous component, hindering us from taking bold steps we need in other to reach our goals. you have to contend with inflation, recession, decisions from the Feds and all. I was able to increase my portfolio by $289k in months. You have to seek for help in the right places.
I think it's not always about fear, Sometimes realistic factors discourage people from reaching their goals in life. For instance, I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in the last 3rd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy the dip''. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder.
The truth is that this is really not as difficult as many people presume it to be. It requires a certain level of diligence, no doubt, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy. My friend just pulled in more than $84k last month alone from his investment with his advisor. That is how people are able to make such huge profits in the market.
Jenienne Miniter Fagan is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
In both the short and long run, a bear and bullish market provides equal avenue to amass good gains I've seen people make 6figures profit as high as $200k in a bear market and I've seen them pull it off much easily in a bull market, it all comes down to having the right information and applying it.
well politicians for certain are gaining off the crash, and true the average individual could profit off a crash but such high-grade investing come with equal risk which can only be managed by a proper pro or expert.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
bravo! the whole markt has gone berserk now, almost not possible to outperform without expert guidance.. think your adviser would get on the phone with a newcomer? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation ?
what are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I'v heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my 200k stock portfolio.
There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist.
Very true. Despite having no prior investing knowledge, I started investing before the pandemic and pulled in a profit of approximately 950k that same year. In reality, all I was doing was getting professional advice.
Instead of trying to predict and prognosticate whether or not we’re going into a recession, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventuality, that’s how some folks' been averaging 15% every 7week according to Bloomberg
Predicting short-term market movements is extremely difficult in reality. It requires the investor to be right twice: Essentially why individuals engage service of experts who provide proper strategies to navigate the markets
The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough hence get burnt, no offense. In general, invt-advisors are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, my portfolio has yielded nearly 300%, summing up to 7-figure as of today.
My primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I know the risks of short term gains are much greater but if well managed one'd make a killing, am I wrong?
The professionals presently control the market since they not only have the essential business strategy but also have access to inside information that the general public is not aware of.
I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.
Lucinda Margaret Crist is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Tom, can you add into your next video that short segment about how historical recessions retrace / undo the most recent stock market gains? I can’t seem to find the right older video where you mention it
Quite a few analysts have argued out that the Jobs report data was skewed due to the Hurricane. This was supported, in part, with a sharp increase in the amount of people unable to work due to bad weather, during this time
This is the video that should have been posted 2 weeks ago. The horse is already out of the barn now How many traders missed their short entry waiting on recession confirmation? Lol, yeah, we are in a recession if there is an oversold bounce, short it.
w00t! Everything is going on sale! Going to be a fantastic black friday! And rate cuts will make debt cheap again! Yeah, recession could get exciting if my particular job is affected, but as long as I keep employed, this is going to be one of the best times to buy stuff and stocks in the last few years! Going to be some good times!
Whoever thinks this market will continue upwards and beyond has their head in their rear. There is a correction coming since the Russell and the Dow are showing signs of weakness. Depending on the correction may determine if the market rallies once more in the summer for a final blow off top and slightly newer high. After that, watch out. Cycle Analysis predicts a hard drop in the late summer early Fall. Also, we are now 190% Market Cap to GDP ratio. That is very extreme......currently I've been engaged in active trading, which is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility and also managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Indeed, the recent market downturn serves as evidence that a vast majority of individuals lacked a sufficient understanding of the underlying financial dynamics at play.
More than 100% of it probably. Actually, GDP is only up bc the leftists imported 50M illegal immigrants. I can't take a walk without seeing hordes of them.
You are the only guy who makes sense on the market Tom! Really love every episode as you are level-headed and analyze it from a step back and take an objective look at all the data points. Very solid! Keep up the great work! Thanks. 👍
Amazing broad analysis video. I've been watching for a couple years but this video triggered me to send to friends. Thank you for the unbiased analysis as always.
I had a 5.2% CD that got called last week. After a bit of legwork, I found out that BofA gives out 5% CDs. My money market at Wells Fargo is temp 5.45%. Rate cuts like that are basically saying interest rates are effectively going to 0 again....
Dear Based Tom, How likely is it that we'll see about a 10% correction that then leads into a relief rally / crack up, and then we see the cliff in about October when markets seem to like to dump? Also, interested to see what happens with the gold miners. This is the first quarter of earnings after prices have increased, so the earnings should beat for the profitable producers. Also, fuel has been suppressed lately (which had been hampering them last year). So I'm wondering if we'll see a nice boost after these earnings, then they'll dump with the rest of the market in fall. And then they should skyrocket after oil dumps because of the recession which should increase the margins for miners even more. Thoughts?
I agree with the overall thesis here, that bullishness has not capitulated and we could be at a temporary low. Dip buyers could be active this week and a retracement of the S&P to fill the gap made on Friday is a supportable expectation. I'm not one of those dip-buyers though. I'm content to hug my bond funds and merely watch what happens in equities.
There’s at least three times on that Sahm rule chart that you showed where it triggered and there was no recession… Of course there’s no red arrows pointing at them so most people won’t notice them but take it closer look
Now that everyone calling for a crash and recession, this reminds me of one of those fake “non” top. Fake breakdown. Last time everyone was like “Nvidia broke the neckline” boom it doubles. Go against the grain.
So now we're splitting hairs over decimal points, huh? Next, you'll tell me the weather forecast is 23.456% accurate. significant figures in this measurement are at best single decimals.
Almost every time you said you will show it later, you never do. If you are not going to follow up seriously, do not say it. You did this too much and you will lose subscribers.
So if you crop charts to show only uptrends, all indicators end up being positive? How useful. I despise cropped charts. At least give something useful as the charts going both ways and how indicators react.
This is what happens when investors limit themselves to buying US stocks at all time highs while booming economies like Turkey or Brazil continue to offer severely undervalued stocks.
The Sahm rule triggered on Friday and has a 100% track record of calling recessions. However... @Claudia_Sahm, the inventor of the rule has said she doesn't think the current measure is indicating a recession yet: "The Sahm rule is likely overstating the labor market's weakening due to unusual shifts in labor supply caused by the pandemic and immigration".
Lots of layoffs happening in the PNW area of the U.S. right now. Come fall I think we'll see a lot of restaurants close up. And retail shopping should continue to feel the lack of sales as well. It just depends whether the market keeps rising for a little bit. Also, everyone already has all their vacations planned for this summer. So until after that we won't see as much of the pull back. But I have a feeling this holiday season is going to be kind of bleak for retail. I think a lot of upper middle class and higher class people don't understand what's coming yet because I've found that when I interact with them that while they're annoyed about higher grocery prices (like Tom gets annoyed by J.Powell) they aren't really feeling it as much as the lower class people I know who are starting to have trouble paying bills as they are getting towards their credit limits.
@@geoffgjof When I start seeing construction projects halted and incomplete, is when I get the "...a recession is happening right in front of me..." feeling. Another example is when local governments trim some hours off park and library openings.
@@Avo7bProject Depends on what the construction projects are cuz some of them were set in motion like 3-4 years ago when interest rates were low. There's enough built up demand that many of the projects are being finished, but the resulting loans after construction are now being transitioned into mortgages that are higher rates than planned. We've already been seeing owners turn in keys to skyscrapers. Next is multi-family and single family foreclosures. We're already at higher rates for loan defaults and even higher for business bankruptcies. There just hasn't been a lot of reporting on it because the legacy media doesn't want to make the administration look bad and for their team to lose the upcoming election. But it's coming. I suggest doing a deep dive of financial channels on UA-cam, or reading substack articles from the finance world. You'll see they've been trying to warn people. And the official recession might have started back in October. It's just things usually keep chugging along til the stock market breaks. But if you look at the unemployment gauge that was used back in the 90s before they changed it (I think it's U6), you'll see we're at historical highs for unemployment too.
We have been in a recession since 2008...Printing debt that fuels stock market gains is simply ether in the wind...Each incremental freshly printed dollar is producing less and less productivity...The AI that is being forced into the front and center has been around since the 60-70s...Yes its getting "smarter" however be no mistake that the switch to GPU has been nothing more than an exercise on how far these frauds running this scam can push the masses...insiders have cashed out of Trillions at the top while the 401 k millionaires are about to understand they have been duped for the third time in 24 years....The collusion is tremendous across the whole spectrum...Buckle up, the next 20 trillion qe will surely force equities HIGHER and the actual value of your currency in half........
Did I just hear ( Get through 2025 ) ? Never in my entire life have I seen notes, bills and bonds move as much as they have in the last 2 weeks. Something is very broken it's not the yen carry trade it's bigger. We'll find out in the next month. Oh and these moves in stocks and bonds are not seasonal. I got to buy a lot of pop corn.
Man I like last days trade bounced below the previous months candle and back into range so I bought some. Clear risk defined at 102.50. So I bought some for at least a short term bounce.
I sold sept puts at $98. Would love to have it at that level. Does anyone think the AI revolution will be stopped by rumors of recession or Buffet selling AAPL?
Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging. I've been working on expanding my $210K portfolio for a while, and my primary obstacle is the lack of clear entry and exit strategies. Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated.
The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off
9:52 Showing a 20% contraction in the IT sector. There are plenty of UA-cam videos discussing it, as "my job hunt sux" anecdotes. But that is the first time I've seen it called out in stats.
Why would you even think the Fed would cut rates in Sept, when they gave no indication of such. They said over multiple times that they would need to see substantial stability at the 2% Inflation Rate, which you can't find stability in just 1 or 2 qtrs, but over a longer term to solidify long term stability. So for that, I think you are clearly wrong on yours and other "daytrader's" projections. Also, the Fed wants to see this over sold markets of everything come crashing down to bring mfg, dist. & retail into a reality check, so that prices come back down and so the IR will remain stable @ around 2%+/-. Otherwise, in previous interviews with Powell, he stated they don't want to see what happened in the mid `70's, when the Fed panicked and cut too soo, too fast, the IR when to the moon and then the Fed had to hike to the moon to chase it and so it became a yoyo effect for a 1/2 a decade!
I've been purchasing stocks since the beginning of the year, but nothing has changed. However, I've been reading articles about people who are still in the same market who have made over $350,000 in just a few months. What am I doing incorrectly?
Investors should be cautious about their exposure and be wary of new buys, especially during inflation. Such high yields in this recession is only possible under the supervision of a professional or trusted advisor.
True, initially I wasn't quite impressed with my gains, opposed to my previous performances, I was doing so badly, figured I needed to diversify into better assets, I touched base with a portfolio-advisor and that same year, I pulled a net gain of 550k...that's like 7times more than I average on my own.
My CFA ’ANGELA LYNN SCHILLING’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Tom, check the CME fed watch tool again. After the initial shock on Friday following the jobs report, later it finally settled back to 25bps cuts per meeting.
Exactly. Traders have become so stupid that they will cancel anyone that isn't a permabull. Permabulls will go extinct in the coming years unless Trump is elected
Tom, you did not "debunk the Sahm rule". It took a while but ive realized that you're just a liberal permabull. I just started doing this and Ive been more accurate than you for the past few months. Unsubsribed 💯
If you would listen to your own advice ( 14 months from first rate hike stuff hits the fan) then you would have made millions.. come on man… everyone who knows anything saw this coming
![Now This Is Interesting... [Sp500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/swtGqY6998A/mqdefault.jpg)
![Now This Is Interesting... [Sp500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin]](/img/tr.png)
In the last 3 days, when stock prices plunged Retail investors sold $1 Billion. Institutional investors bought +$14 Billion. This is Market manipulation at its finest.
Short term price movement is largely manipulated by market makers and algos (and later justified by ANAL-lyst using bullshit reasons) ... e.g. driving prices down to scare and force weak holders to sell....its like a game of poker... bluff the weak hands to fold their cards so the pros can grab their money and their shares more cheaply.
As smart investors who understand the true value of the underlying business, we never let the current market price guide us into the quality and success of our investments... i take advise from my fin Advisor that has developed a trusted strategy that allows the market serve us.....we take advantage of the emotions and stupidity of others to add great companies on the cheap.
That's really great. I've tried doing some research myself to hire a financial advisor, but it's really overwhelming. Could you recommend who you work with, please?
Annette Christine Conte is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
This recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.
Let's face it, increasing stock and index fund purchases during downturns and bear markets is unnerving. Which makes it very difficult for most people, like me, to do. It's challenging to incur the risk of investing the $1 million I have in an S&S.
That is correct. For the past 23 months, I've been in daily contact with a financial advisor. The difficult part of investing these days is determining when to sell or hold a company when it is trending. My supervisor can advise me on points of entry and exit in the sectors in which I am now active. I can't say I'm sorry because my profits increased by 63% in the third quarter of 2022.
I've been considering taking that path. I've kept a lot of stocks, but they're starting to depreciate, and I'm not sure if I should stick onto them or sell them. I believe restructuring my portfolio would be facilitated by engaging your investing coach.
Annette Christine Conte is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment...
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Nobody can become financially successful overnight. They put in background work but we tend to see the finished part. Fear is a dangerous component, hindering us from taking bold steps we need in other to reach our goals. you have to contend with inflation, recession, decisions from the Feds and all. I was able to increase my portfolio by $289k in months. You have to seek for help in the right places.
I think it's not always about fear, Sometimes realistic factors discourage people from reaching their goals in life. For instance, I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in the last 3rd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy the dip''. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder.
The truth is that this is really not as difficult as many people presume it to be. It requires a certain level of diligence, no doubt, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy. My friend just pulled in more than $84k last month alone from his investment with his advisor. That is how people are able to make such huge profits in the market.
nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
Jenienne Miniter Fagan is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
In both the short and long run, a bear and bullish market provides equal avenue to amass good gains I've seen people make 6figures profit as high as $200k in a bear market and I've seen them pull it off much easily in a bull market, it all comes down to having the right information and applying it.
well politicians for certain are gaining off the crash, and true the average individual could profit off a crash but such high-grade investing come with equal risk which can only be managed by a proper pro or expert.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
bravo! the whole markt has gone berserk now, almost not possible to outperform without expert guidance.. think your adviser would get on the phone with a newcomer? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation ?
Her name is. 'GRISELDA ELENA JEMMOTT’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I just curiously searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. Thank you
what are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I'v heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my 200k stock portfolio.
There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist.
Very true. Despite having no prior investing knowledge, I started investing before the pandemic and pulled in a profit of approximately 950k that same year. In reality, all I was doing was getting professional advice.
pls who is your advisor? would love to connect
I'd say a little due diligence on "Dianne Sarah Olson" truly exceptional..
thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. did my due diligence on her before emailing her. she seems proficient considering her résumé..
Instead of trying to predict and prognosticate whether or not we’re going into a recession, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventuality, that’s how some folks' been averaging 15% every 7week according to Bloomberg
Predicting short-term market movements is extremely difficult in reality. It requires the investor to be right twice: Essentially why individuals engage service of experts who provide proper strategies to navigate the markets
The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough hence get burnt, no offense. In general, invt-advisors are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, my portfolio has yielded nearly 300%, summing up to 7-figure as of today.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
*Marissa Lynn Babula* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Watch markets rip up for a half a year longer just because no one expects it to.
Yeeeet
Not wrong watch the green when everyone shorts haha
everyone knows stonks only go up 👆 👆
Nancy agrees 😂
double top into rate cuts
My primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I know the risks of short term gains are much greater but if well managed one'd make a killing, am I wrong?
The professionals presently control the market since they not only have the essential business strategy but also have access to inside information that the general public is not aware of.
I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.
impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
Lucinda Margaret Crist is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
always appreciate your sober analysis
Tom, can you add into your next video that short segment about how historical recessions retrace / undo the most recent stock market gains? I can’t seem to find the right older video where you mention it
Quite a few analysts have argued out that the Jobs report data was skewed due to the Hurricane. This was supported, in part, with a sharp increase in the amount of people unable to work due to bad weather, during this time
Great time to look at the monthly and quarterly charts and find those buy targets
Would an emergency rate cut cause TLT to spike to 120 to 130 in the next month or 2??
Great that you have a video on Sunday about the market situation!
This is the video that should have been posted 2 weeks ago. The horse is already out of the barn now How many traders missed their short entry waiting on recession confirmation? Lol, yeah, we are in a recession if there is an oversold bounce, short it.
w00t! Everything is going on sale! Going to be a fantastic black friday! And rate cuts will make debt cheap again!
Yeah, recession could get exciting if my particular job is affected, but as long as I keep employed, this is going to be one of the best times to buy stuff and stocks in the last few years! Going to be some good times!
Whoever thinks this market will continue upwards and beyond has their head in their rear. There is a correction coming since the Russell and the Dow are showing signs of weakness. Depending on the correction may determine if the market rallies once more in the summer for a final blow off top and slightly newer high. After that, watch out. Cycle Analysis predicts a hard drop in the late summer early Fall. Also, we are now 190% Market Cap to GDP ratio. That is very extreme......currently I've been engaged in active trading, which is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility and also managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Sandy Barclays program is widely available online..
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Indeed, the recent market downturn serves as evidence that a vast majority of individuals lacked a sufficient understanding of the underlying financial dynamics at play.
Sandy gave me the autonomy I need to learn at my own pace and ask questions when I need to she’s so accommodating.
How much of GDP was government spending?
More than 100% of it probably. Actually, GDP is only up bc the leftists imported 50M illegal immigrants. I can't take a walk without seeing hordes of them.
Is the Bond indicator proprietary? Great info all around
You are the only guy who makes sense on the market Tom! Really love every episode as you are level-headed and analyze it from a step back and take an objective look at all the data points. Very solid! Keep up the great work! Thanks. 👍
It depends what section of the USA u live in There are plenty of jobs just more labor intensive
shorts will get trapped!
Amazing broad analysis video. I've been watching for a couple years but this video triggered me to send to friends. Thank you for the unbiased analysis as always.
I DEFINITELY was eager for this video... he's been saying we have a lot of room to go in this bull market... want to check his vibes
I had a 5.2% CD that got called last week. After a bit of legwork, I found out that BofA gives out 5% CDs. My money market at Wells Fargo is temp 5.45%. Rate cuts like that are basically saying interest rates are effectively going to 0 again....
Dear Based Tom,
How likely is it that we'll see about a 10% correction that then leads into a relief rally / crack up, and then we see the cliff in about October when markets seem to like to dump?
Also, interested to see what happens with the gold miners. This is the first quarter of earnings after prices have increased, so the earnings should beat for the profitable producers. Also, fuel has been suppressed lately (which had been hampering them last year). So I'm wondering if we'll see a nice boost after these earnings, then they'll dump with the rest of the market in fall. And then they should skyrocket after oil dumps because of the recession which should increase the margins for miners even more. Thoughts?
I think so. I see shops closing restauants almost empty used cars and bikes dropping in price. People losing eork. Lets see how this turns around.
At least someone is keeping a cool mind haha, appreciated 👏
Friday seemed like an overreaction/capitulation.
Do you guys do a trial for the courses ?
I agree with the overall thesis here, that bullishness has not capitulated and we could be at a temporary low. Dip buyers could be active this week and a retracement of the S&P to fill the gap made on Friday is a supportable expectation. I'm not one of those dip-buyers though. I'm content to hug my bond funds and merely watch what happens in equities.
Still confused why you don’t like the Vix?
He just doesn’t like to trade it because VXX has a natural decay due to contract rollover.
Should have used BB
It is fx Evolution weekend time friendos
Lets hear it up based homies
I usually can't comment bc youtube knows that I'm based. It doesn't like that.
Thanks as always
Could u make the overlay pictures smaller or leave them out altogether? 🙏
There’s at least three times on that Sahm rule chart that you showed where it triggered and there was no recession… Of course there’s no red arrows pointing at them so most people won’t notice them but take it closer look
Thank you Tom, your making great...
Black Monday ?
Tom, you are my hero
Now that everyone calling for a crash and recession, this reminds me of one of those fake “non” top. Fake breakdown. Last time everyone was like “Nvidia broke the neckline” boom it doubles. Go against the grain.
It’s going to slowly chop down a little bit maybe another 10 to 20 percent then bull run
Where did he talk about Buffet selling Apple 🍎???????
A narrow miss?
The glass is 1% full, not 99% empty... 🤷♂️
Even if it is a narrow miss, the job numbers have almost always revised down under Biden. So, you can say it's still hit the rule.
SP 500 drops to 5200.
thanks Tom
Thanks Tom
People always say it's different this time. Then its not.
So now we're splitting hairs over decimal points, huh? Next, you'll tell me the weather forecast is 23.456% accurate. significant figures in this measurement are at best single decimals.
Almost every time you said you will show it later, you never do. If you are not going to follow up seriously, do not say it. You did this too much and you will lose subscribers.
Imagine ppl remembering stuff for more than a week
It’s free info, calm down.
So if you crop charts to show only uptrends, all indicators end up being positive? How useful. I despise cropped charts. At least give something useful as the charts going both ways and how indicators react.
UVXY has been in the 60s and 70s before going up 8 to 10 points a day This is tame Volitility!!
Are you ready to have some fun??? Thanks Tom!!!
McKelvey rule just 0.3 100% accurate way before Samh rule trigger back in October 2023 take your pick
What?
@@evanhayes5891 look it up
Watch enough videos u will realise he hasn’t a clue about anything just a few stat that mean nothing in a super bubble 🤡🤡🤡
Joseph is splitting hairs, Sahm rules applies. We already know recession is a foregone conclusion.
Why care when a recession will start, more important is if the stock market will be down over the next 30 days.
2/10 UST reversion?
This is what happens when investors limit themselves to buying US stocks at all time highs while booming economies like Turkey or Brazil continue to offer severely undervalued stocks.
give some good names for turkey or brazil please??? tickers?
Currency risk.
You say home builders is strong, yet XHB took a dump
Relatively strong. YTD up 16% compared to 10% for QQQ.
I don’t think they will cut until inflation reaches and stays at or below 2% for 2 months, irrespective of jobs.
Sledgend. Keep the goods coming
Thank you 🙏
The Sahm rule triggered on Friday and has a 100% track record of calling recessions.
However...
@Claudia_Sahm, the inventor of the rule has said she doesn't think the current measure is indicating a recession yet:
"The Sahm rule is likely overstating the labor market's weakening due to unusual shifts in labor supply caused by the pandemic and immigration".
Any bounce will get destroyed dead cat bounce
I dont know where u live there are 2 auto manufacturers scheduled to open in my state in the next 7 or 8 months
Lots of layoffs happening in the PNW area of the U.S. right now.
Come fall I think we'll see a lot of restaurants close up. And retail shopping should continue to feel the lack of sales as well.
It just depends whether the market keeps rising for a little bit. Also, everyone already has all their vacations planned for this summer. So until after that we won't see as much of the pull back. But I have a feeling this holiday season is going to be kind of bleak for retail.
I think a lot of upper middle class and higher class people don't understand what's coming yet because I've found that when I interact with them that while they're annoyed about higher grocery prices (like Tom gets annoyed by J.Powell) they aren't really feeling it as much as the lower class people I know who are starting to have trouble paying bills as they are getting towards their credit limits.
@@geoffgjof When I start seeing construction projects halted and incomplete, is when I get the "...a recession is happening right in front of me..." feeling. Another example is when local governments trim some hours off park and library openings.
@@Avo7bProject Depends on what the construction projects are cuz some of them were set in motion like 3-4 years ago when interest rates were low. There's enough built up demand that many of the projects are being finished, but the resulting loans after construction are now being transitioned into mortgages that are higher rates than planned. We've already been seeing owners turn in keys to skyscrapers. Next is multi-family and single family foreclosures. We're already at higher rates for loan defaults and even higher for business bankruptcies. There just hasn't been a lot of reporting on it because the legacy media doesn't want to make the administration look bad and for their team to lose the upcoming election. But it's coming.
I suggest doing a deep dive of financial channels on UA-cam, or reading substack articles from the finance world. You'll see they've been trying to warn people.
And the official recession might have started back in October. It's just things usually keep chugging along til the stock market breaks.
But if you look at the unemployment gauge that was used back in the 90s before they changed it (I think it's U6), you'll see we're at historical highs for unemployment too.
Denial is the first stage of grief.
unemployment up 4 month in the row. average 12 month was 3.5 current 4.3 0.greater than 0.5 sell before it is too late
Buffet is obviously very smart but dumping AAPL was genius! 3.5 trillion is ridiculous
It’s the 33 PE which is crazy.
The soft landing is just a postponement of a hard landing 😉
Hearing this since 2020.
Recession now.
We'll see what happen.
We have been in a recession since 2008...Printing debt that fuels stock market gains is simply ether in the wind...Each incremental freshly printed dollar is producing less and less productivity...The AI that is being forced into the front and center has been around since the 60-70s...Yes its getting "smarter" however be no mistake that the switch to GPU has been nothing more than an exercise on how far these frauds running this scam can push the masses...insiders have cashed out of Trillions at the top while the 401 k millionaires are about to understand they have been duped for the third time in 24 years....The collusion is tremendous across the whole spectrum...Buckle up, the next 20 trillion qe will surely force equities HIGHER and the actual value of your currency in half........
Did I just hear ( Get through 2025 ) ? Never in my entire life have I seen notes, bills and bonds move as much as they have in the last 2 weeks. Something is very broken it's not the yen carry trade it's bigger. We'll find out in the next month. Oh and these moves in stocks and bonds are not seasonal. I got to buy a lot of pop corn.
Calls on orville redenbacher cant miss
Anything can happen
nvda now under investigation also traded 500 million shares in one day
Where did you see that? I think NVDA has no real substance to maintain these levels. Their P/E ratio is absurd!!! The cracks will show eventually.
Man I like last days trade bounced below the previous months candle and back into range so I bought some. Clear risk defined at 102.50. So I bought some for at least a short term bounce.
I sold sept puts at $98. Would love to have it at that level. Does anyone think the AI revolution will be stopped by rumors of recession or Buffet selling AAPL?
Here before the bots.
Agree I do.. AMR7X too the moon! 🚀🚀🚀
But have you heard... *insert name* is great. Also AMX(9767898P is awesome, have you heard
@@Leopardipzg You briefly got your snark through the algorithm. It chose to hide my comment. I saw yours once, now it's hidden too.
Wasn't he going to post a second video
So mad I sold my puts yesterday.
Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging. I've been working on expanding my $210K portfolio for a while, and my primary obstacle is the lack of clear entry and exit strategies. Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated.
The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off
BUSINESS friendly state vs non friendly
No crypto. Huh...
9:52 Showing a 20% contraction in the IT sector. There are plenty of UA-cam videos discussing it, as "my job hunt sux" anecdotes. But that is the first time I've seen it called out in stats.
You can't have comebacks without setbacks.
Why would you even think the Fed would cut rates in Sept, when they gave no indication of such. They said over multiple times that they would need to see substantial stability at the 2% Inflation Rate, which you can't find stability in just 1 or 2 qtrs, but over a longer term to solidify long term stability. So for that, I think you are clearly wrong on yours and other "daytrader's" projections. Also, the Fed wants to see this over sold markets of everything come crashing down to bring mfg, dist. & retail into a reality check, so that prices come back down and so the IR will remain stable @ around 2%+/-. Otherwise, in previous interviews with Powell, he stated they don't want to see what happened in the mid `70's, when the Fed panicked and cut too soo, too fast, the IR when to the moon and then the Fed had to hike to the moon to chase it and so it became a yoyo effect for a 1/2 a decade!
I've been purchasing stocks since the beginning of the year, but nothing has changed. However, I've been reading articles about people who are still in the same market who have made over $350,000 in just a few months. What am I doing incorrectly?
Investors should be cautious about their exposure and be wary of new buys, especially during inflation. Such high yields in this recession is only possible under the supervision of a professional or trusted advisor.
True, initially I wasn't quite impressed with my gains, opposed to my previous performances, I was doing so badly, figured I needed to diversify into better assets, I touched base with a portfolio-advisor and that same year, I pulled a net gain of 550k...that's like 7times more than I average on my own.
I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?
My CFA ’ANGELA LYNN SCHILLING’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Tom, check the CME fed watch tool again. After the initial shock on Friday following the jobs report, later it finally settled back to 25bps cuts per meeting.
Incorrect. Still 74% chance of a 50 bp cut in september.
Stock market recession? That's a new one. The economy and the stock market are not the same thing.
Harry Dent is ready.
"A stock market recession" 😂😂😂 well struck, Einstein!
If the market continues to drop the way it has been it would’ve stagnated for at least 3-4 years.
AI does not make money may take years
Do you not see nvda revenue do u live under a rock 😂
@@anonSPYNvidia sells chips to companies who want to ride the AI hype. Different things
You are guessing again
😂😂 SHORT 😂😂
It's like you are afraid to sound bearish 😅, bulls bullies will cancel you or what?
Exactly. Traders have become so stupid that they will cancel anyone that isn't a permabull. Permabulls will go extinct in the coming years unless Trump is elected
The Sahm is an oddity, because you have to realize the jobs reports are ALWAYS lied about initially and then ALWAYS revised 90 days afterward
What about Intel laying off 11k jobs over the next few qtrs?
Tom Lee is always bullish!
Tom, you did not "debunk the Sahm rule". It took a while but ive realized that you're just a liberal permabull. I just started doing this and Ive been more accurate than you for the past few months. Unsubsribed 💯
If you would listen to your own advice ( 14 months from first rate hike stuff hits the fan) then you would have made millions.. come on man… everyone who knows anything saw this coming
🧦wool socks to bed = dreaming like when you were younger and your brain wasnt atrophied🟫⚪🟪
Lol u 🥜
Shit.