I think sellers are finally realizing interest rates aren’t coming down and won’t anytime soon. I would bet there’s going to be a flood of houses coming on all at once. Buyers can’t afford the houses at these interest rates so unless they cut prices dramatically, they won’t sell.
Rate just one factor another is the investors need to move extra houses they have since the price stagnate and rates fluctuate on the high side - and their holding costs just adding up.
Selling pretty well right now but listings accumulating like snow. I agree. At some point price has to move to get the inventory moving. We will see if sellers back off or prices start dropping.
Well, Austin has new listings up 10% in March, my hunch is that more coming in Apr. In Austin, median is flat at 450k YoY, and slightly up from Feb. Usually there is a Spring recover in both volume and price comparing to winter, but I think this year Austin's recovery will be more muted than 2023. In 2023, price is up almost 10% from Feb low to June local peak.
What's the deal with land prices? Do they inflate with the housing prices too? Also, what are your views with buying vs building in TN? Lumber crashed since covid.
Yes. Land values do inflate and is the first to fall when things go bad. In general cost to build seems to be cheaper. But I don’t have a ton of experience there.
Same thing happening South Seattle. Active Inventory normally climbs 1% a week this time of year. We've just had or 5th week in a row of 3%+ growth. At this rate we'll have highest inventory in 6 years by June!
Great info as always, sir! Crazy things going on with inventory. I think another sign of the times is that I'm starting to see more ads talk about having assumable mortgages.
If you’re in Nashville I cross reference all of the active listings with FHA. Feel free to reach out. They aren’t very easy to find because most aren’t advertised.
I understand why you would want to wait. You will have more options but these things can shift unpredictably. More importantly get a better than average deal and make sure you can rent your home for more than monthly payment. If I was buying in Davidson, I would look in an area that’s soft and negotiate price and pick up an assumable mortgage with it. This is what we did in hermitage. Picked up a 2.75% mortgage and got a great deal based on comps. If prices fall, it won’t really impact my buyer as he will plan to live there for many years. If he did need to move he can rent it out and continue owning the property.
This what I was referring to - the high profile layoffs - at the time I wasn't at liberty to disclose the details. I an assure you its not over. The area that will impact Tennessee will expand into automotive labor - indicative of the recent UAW vote in Chattanooga. Regardless of the interest rates - until the price of the product comes back to reality - the interest rates will not matter. I also think its important most of the California migrants are going to West Haven and Brentwood which forces the question of sustainability. At the end of the day you are approaching the period that the local economy cannot support these prices. I suggest its important to always be mindful that at some point you are going to want to sell the home you paid well over the sustainable value. Local business does not support these prices. Another factor - is the ARM - the pied piper is knocking at the door to be paid.
Interesting. I can see that. The UAW vote was a mistake but people are hurting and looking for help. Kind of sad. Migration into Westhaven and Brentwood is very sustainable and I think buying a $1M home in Franklin is much less risky than a $300K home in an over leveraged neighborhood where layoffs will hit hard. Just my opinion but there’s so much demand for $1M+
@@EthanFlynn Completely agree. Not sure where the demand is coming from other than LA / SFO - Even Chicago doesn't have a major demand for that price range and most likely would not be inclined to come to a more conservative state. I can see more "celebrity" types coming. I suggest the greatest risk is we think 400K is "average" - that is alot of money for local families. Let's hope we don't harm the local economy by this crazy real estate cycle. Also agree - "New Franklin" is less risk --- at least today.
I hope you’re right. Any sources you can cite to back up that migration is slowing or reversing? I talk to people in CA and they are convinced it’s just starting.
🎉🎉🎉 Hi 👋🏼 Ethan Do you think that realtors have been telling their clients to wait until Spring time to list their homes? And with the rates being so high that this could be a major reason why we have so much inventory? So many factors going on… If I only had a crystal ball 🔮. Thank you Sir for always sharing the TRUTH! Have a great weekend my friend. Blessings,Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸
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I think sellers are finally realizing interest rates aren’t coming down and won’t anytime soon. I would bet there’s going to be a flood of houses coming on all at once. Buyers can’t afford the houses at these interest rates so unless they cut prices dramatically, they won’t sell.
Rate just one factor another is the investors need to move extra houses they have since the price stagnate and rates fluctuate on the high side - and their holding costs just adding up.
Selling pretty well right now but listings accumulating like snow. I agree. At some point price has to move to get the inventory moving. We will see if sellers back off or prices start dropping.
It could also be the AirBnBers who bought too high finally throwing in the towel as well imo.
@@BCFC954 closing data shows house closing is still near 60 year lows. Nothing is selling. Prices will soon plummet. Watch
Well, Austin has new listings up 10% in March, my hunch is that more coming in Apr. In Austin, median is flat at 450k YoY, and slightly up from Feb. Usually there is a Spring recover in both volume and price comparing to winter, but I think this year Austin's recovery will be more muted than 2023. In 2023, price is up almost 10% from Feb low to June local peak.
You think tesla will impact housing market there?
What's the deal with land prices? Do they inflate with the housing prices too? Also, what are your views with buying vs building in TN? Lumber crashed since covid.
Yes. Land values do inflate and is the first to fall when things go bad. In general cost to build seems to be cheaper. But I don’t have a ton of experience there.
@@EthanFlynn thanks! what are the top platforms to use for land?
Same thing happening South Seattle. Active Inventory normally climbs 1% a week this time of year. We've just had or 5th week in a row of 3%+ growth. At this rate we'll have highest inventory in 6 years by June!
Wow! Really!?
Great info as always, sir! Crazy things going on with inventory. I think another sign of the times is that I'm starting to see more ads talk about having assumable mortgages.
Thanks! Interesting. What are you hearing on assumable? I’d be curious who is advertising.
Hi Ethan. Is there an (organized, specific) way to find assumable mortgages ?
If you’re in Nashville I cross reference all of the active listings with FHA. Feel free to reach out.
They aren’t very easy to find because most aren’t advertised.
If the stock market drops 10 percent, the mood of the moment in housing could get interesting...
Yeah I agree.
Bitcoin and stocks making everyone feel fine. Slight fear could set in.
fingers crossed. The FOMO wave works the exact same way as it does up with greed and down with fear.
If I'm looking at the less than 700k price band in Nashville (Davidson), I'd be sitting and waiting things out.
I understand why you would want to wait. You will have more options but these things can shift unpredictably. More importantly get a better than average deal and make sure you can rent your home for more than monthly payment.
If I was buying in Davidson, I would look in an area that’s soft and negotiate price and pick up an assumable mortgage with it.
This is what we did in hermitage. Picked up a 2.75% mortgage and got a great deal based on comps. If prices fall, it won’t really impact my buyer as he will plan to live there for many years. If he did need to move he can rent it out and continue owning the property.
@@EthanFlynn That's very close to what my plans were. Didn't think about looking for an assumable mortgage, though. Good call.
This what I was referring to - the high profile layoffs - at the time I wasn't at liberty to disclose the details. I an assure you its not over. The area that will impact Tennessee will expand into automotive labor - indicative of the recent UAW vote in Chattanooga. Regardless of the interest rates - until the price of the product comes back to reality - the interest rates will not matter. I also think its important most of the California migrants are going to West Haven and Brentwood which forces the question of sustainability. At the end of the day you are approaching the period that the local economy cannot support these prices. I suggest its important to always be mindful that at some point you are going to want to sell the home you paid well over the sustainable value. Local business does not support these prices. Another factor - is the ARM - the pied piper is knocking at the door to be paid.
Interesting. I can see that. The UAW vote was a mistake but people are hurting and looking for help. Kind of sad.
Migration into Westhaven and Brentwood is very sustainable and I think buying a $1M home in Franklin is much less risky than a $300K home in an over leveraged neighborhood where layoffs will hit hard. Just my opinion but there’s so much demand for $1M+
@@EthanFlynn Completely agree. Not sure where the demand is coming from other than LA / SFO - Even Chicago doesn't have a major demand for that price range and most likely would not be inclined to come to a more conservative state. I can see more "celebrity" types coming. I suggest the greatest risk is we think 400K is "average" - that is alot of money for local families. Let's hope we don't harm the local economy by this crazy real estate cycle. Also agree - "New Franklin" is less risk --- at least today.
People in Crashville are addicted to California buyers! Its drying up. Hold out properties are going to drop 30-40%.
I hope you’re right. Any sources you can cite to back up that migration is slowing or reversing?
I talk to people in CA and they are convinced it’s just starting.
Crash incoming, horrible time to buy
🎉🎉🎉 Hi 👋🏼 Ethan
Do you think that realtors have been telling their clients to wait until Spring time to list their homes? And with the rates being so high that this could be a major reason why we have so much inventory?
So many factors going on…
If I only had a crystal ball 🔮.
Thank you Sir for always sharing the TRUTH!
Have a great weekend my friend. Blessings,Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸
Maybe so. I know that Redfin called this in December so got to give credit where credit is due on that one. They said people were reaching out a lot.