Did it sell or was it pulled? Unpopular opinion... here we go!
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- Опубліковано 10 вер 2024
- The M30 product went on sale and sold out within 37 minutes. OR DID IT? If you ask pretty much anyone, the answer is no. The sale flopped, we won, WoTC had to save face and is stuck sitting on a pile of this garbage product. I hope that turns out to be true, but *so far* I don't think there's any compelling reason to think it is.
#MagicTheGathering #LimitedEditionAlpha #30thanniversary
3:00 TL;DR
6:30 Hasbro/Wizards needs to save face
15:42 The "sale has concluded"
24:00 There was no line and no bad gateway
35:29 The secondary market
39:58 The sale ended everywhere at the same time
44:31 Conclusion: will we ever know?
48:35 ...and some cool AI art on Alpha cards.
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I'm Mike, the Alpha Hoarder, and I'm sharing/documenting my wild collection here on YT. Join me while I ramble about old cards and MTG finance, and look at cool stuff.
hello@alphahoarder.com
Mike the AlphaHoarder @ 375 Carlls Path #73, Deer Park NY 11729
I don't know if your right or not (leaning towards you're correct) but I'm over the moon that you're actually using real logic and evidence to come to your conclusion rather than emotion. Great video man keep it up!
I don’t know if I am right if not either, lol! But I’m glad you appreciate the take.
Lol I love coming back to this video to see how dumb people are
That art at the end was gorgeous 😍
The artists were given the playtest card name as their prompt, and nothing else because Jesper wanted their creativity to flavor the game.
That explains some of the more interesting ones! Natural selection for instance, never seem to have much to do with the card. Yeah, the artificial intelligence stuff is getting so wild… it blows my mind!
Hey Tavis- any insight into my question posted above about Phantasmal terrain? ^^^
@@connorwills9862 I replied next to your question. 👍
I've been thinking a lot lately about how we are supposed to "win" this battle and it's hard for me to find the exact scenario that we do. I'm concerned that both scenarios "sold out" and "pulled due to low sales" have ill consequences. "Sold out" probably green lights this type of product in the future, which is probably the worst-case scenario. The best we can hope for is that Wizards/Hasbro take some of the outrage to heart and not do something similar to this again. But then there is this scenario where a lot less was purchased (or produced) than we thought and some months down the line when this product is cracked and hitting the secondary market, we see such scarcity that prices for the sealed or chase singles spiral out of control - then Wizards sees this and then decides to capitalize one way or another (releasing more of what didn't sell or creating new similar products)... Tricky stuff...
Not to be soft on Magic 30th (I'm NOT soft on it-I hate it with a passion), but I'm trying to be optimistic that the product CAN exist without damaging the integrity, collectability and value of true "vintage" products. Time will tell on that I guess, but I'm putting my chips on accumulating more Alpha, and not dumping it. Anecdotally speaking, I see a lot of people selling old stuff right now and I'm buying some as I can.
You point to a very real problem. They are experts at tracking secondary-market equity and jumping in where they can, so there's an unfortunately failure mode on both sides of this road.
I think M30 can exist fine with the hobby IF we never see a product like that again. It's the door it opens, rather than the product itself, that is troubling. And yes, your anecdote matches my experience. Inventory is up, prices are soft.
Last time players showed frustration and stopped buying products , LGS's and vendors paid a hefty price , with players sitting on the side, they eventually had to sell high end inventory to pay rent. As there is no support for new product. Cash becomes hard to come by, they close the cash buy list, and all the high end stuff goes on sale. Ends up back I. The hands of players and hoarders where it belongs.
Dude, those artworks at the end were amazing
Isn’t it wild? The improvement on the model, on a month-over-month basis, is staggering.
You could make a whole card game with just that ai art. Hell WotC may not even need artists in a few years lol
WotC will still want to pay artists, because it's the only way they can own the rights to the artwork.
They need that in order to defend their business/product against counterfeits.
Great video and analysis. Probably the most rational upload I've seen about the 30th Anniversary sale. 🌮
Appreciate that! Thanks for watching. 🌮
Time to post a new video, taking into account the news today about actual sales numbers of 30th anniversary...
Yup…! There’s now definitely enough evidence to draw some conclusions.
That A.I. alternate art should have been MTG 30th anniversary. Those cards are mindblowing! 😍
I know, right? Other than crop them into the card, there’s no photoshop or anything in those. That’s straight out of the mind of the AI bot. 🤯🤯
I think it was pulled. After 10 minutes it was a dead sale. I was in the trenches of the 30th secret lair, and many other online drops. and this was nowhere close to that. Instant que… no problems. The longer it was up, the less valuable it became. They had to pull. They moved product to other sites. I think roughly 2 thousand sold. But good video man. Appreciate ya ❤
Definitely could be! I'm closer to the fence than the video made it sound, I expect. It's a perfectly reasonable hypothesis, and would be a way for them to both a) still sell the product and b) present the face of success. Mainly I'm pushing against the chest pounding and collective cheers of victory, when it seems to me we have no idea what went down. Appreciate the comment, always nice when someone can disagree kindly 🤜🤛 😅
@@AlphaHoarder one day we will know lol. The Amazon dumps will boost q4 and provide cover.
30th was never going to get the traffic of a product that had 1000x the demand.
@@patmacrotch5611 Funny it sold out in 30 minutes with no traffic huh?
@@junglerumbler6917 How do you know it had no traffic? Or do you just think it had no traffic?
Mike the Internet Conspirator makes a video about an internet conspiracy. Hmm, Rudy might be onto something...
Great video and great cards, as always. BTW you got me hooked on MidJourney. I... it... we... have created some jaw dropping art. It is so addictive. The magic cards you/it made are just incredible. If you made a proxy set with that art I'd buy it all day 😁
Ha, nice! Yeah this thing has kept my attention, and v4 that launched a few weeks ago is mind blowing!!
The end art should be a series in itself, was not expecting how amazing those would be
I’m actually thinking of making a video just about those, because so many people are commenting about it! It’s really wild, isn’t it?
@@AlphaHoarder yeah it would be awesome! Wild and scary at the same time in terms of how smart and accurate an AI can get.
My opinnion, secondary market will tell... Won't do anymore on it. Have a fine and relaxed Sunday and Enjoy you OG's. 🤘🦁🤘
And be prepared to be "scammed" by the new fake cards... They are allmost indistinguishable from real. Special with the new style print..... 😤😠😡 Beware All. 🤓
"Law&Order" saw what you did..... Starting to care less and less about the product. It is what it is and it's here to stay. But what will the "Next" move be..... 😔
Thanks, appreciate it. Enjoy your Sunday too, Savannah 🤜🤛 And yup, here come the fakes!
Those artworks are frickin sweet. They should have done that for 30th edition!
I know it’s just so wild to me that a machine learning model can come up with this stuff on its own 🤯
The arts in the end are amazing. Thanks for sharing. would really love to see new magic sets being released with similar style of art.
I think that’s most artists nightmare lol. But the potential here is really awesome… I spent maybe an hour generating those! If I was creating my own card game, this would be an incredible option!
AlphaHoarder > Rudy when it comes down to real deep analysis of a mtg market situation.
Congratz on the awesome NLP-AI generated cards at the end. I got a tear when a saw all those awesome redesign that could have made Magic 30th so unique.
Rudy is a much better showman. He’s got the advantage of a whole lot of inside sources that he may not refer to outright, but he’s often drawing on. I do appreciate the vote of confidence, however! And yeah, that art was really cool, I had to share it
By the way - the art at the end was amazing. I would want to collect those cards if they existed in real life. Absolutely beautiful
I know, right! I’m making a video with some others 👍
Your speaking the truth! Finally someone who is on the same thought train as myself.
Unfortunately, it’s pretty much just the two of us on this particular train 😅 nonetheless, the solidarity is appreciated 🤜🤛
I don't think you are right... BUT it's GOOD to have people take the other side of a topic to keep us all honest and in reality.
Why do you assume before now all of WoTC's comments online were legit and just this one is questionable? You completely overlook the possibility that WoTC lies all the time and has for years.
You should have spent more time looking at the Singapore sales. You could see the number of items available. It started at like 798 and was taken offline while still 791 were available. Data points like that tell a really solid story.
Appreciate that, and thanks for dropping by! I definitely could be wrong… The lack of secondary market activity is the most compelling argument in favor, I think, but I still wanted to push back against the chorus. I worry a lot of us are in the prime emotional position to be swept up by confirmation bias. I expect it will become clearer over the next month, one way or the other. Thanks again for the comment, Edwin 👍
@@AlphaHoarder I went back and edited my reply a couple times as I watched your video. You might need to refresh.
Side note.. a little birdie told me that 14k boxes (each with 4 packs) were made and 21% were sold. The majority was bought by 3x speculative whale type people/places that people would recognize.
NOT confirmed data... just passing along what I heard.
If that little bird’s data is good, then that’s exactly the sort of information I was holding out for…! 🙏🙏
great content and omg that Time walk in the end : )
Thanks! Yeah isn't that one awesome? Also the Holy Armor really impressed me.
i dont think they pulled the product to “save face.”. i do, however, think there may be breakers put in place if sales drop below a certain threshold, and they went with a “plan b.”my tin foil hat theory is that they intentionally sold a very low number, maybe 2.5k-5k units, in an effort to drive up the price in the secondary market, and create artificial and temporary demand. in a couple months, they would then have an opportunity to sell through amazon (or to distributors) at “a steal of a price” for around 500-750. who knows? id love to know the absolute truth and not have to speculate.
That would be a very clever plan. Joel Mick made a post on Facebook that suggested they may well have withheld some product with the intention of selling it later. Could be! Thanks as always for watching, even when it’s a hot take lol
People are buying preorders (it will ship when seller receives product from wotc) of this on eBay for close to 2k now. I’m sure TCGPlayer will have similar data to track. This is what people should be watching for the next few months. (With enough sales you can rule out eBay manipulation.)
Agreed. It’s the most telling part of the story…!
Encore beaucoup de très belles cartes. L'avenir nous le dira...
L'avenir nous le dira, indeed. Thanks for watching!
@@AlphaHoarder C'est Video est a La Carte, et de bonne goute mes amis!!!
Cest video est de bonne goute, jaimerais bien les regardez encore une fois, une anne au future. L'avenir nous dira!
Qué "Serra" cèra! 🤘🦁🤘
The sale was ended, not to save face but that product didn't sell out. If it sold out you would have seen WAY more flippers flipping on ebay. Not to mention that it had to be the smoothest sale they've ever had? You can't even buy a secret lair without the site crashing, you order getting kicked back, or just taking forever to complete your order. Tbh I could care less either way, I don't buy modern cards at all. 2004 any earlier is all I'll buy.
Yes, very fair - I think the thinness of the secondary market is by far the most compelling argument that this *didn’t* sell out.
OMG these artworks ...I would buy these at 1 000$
Dark ritual, Vesuvan, Cyclopean, Time walk, fastbond and mana vault are crazy good for me 😍
I know, it’s so crazy! I couldn’t believe how close the doppelgänger came out to the original just from describing the art. Time walk, blew my mind… Definitely a different interpretation - a bit of a Stranger Things vibe - but so cool!
Appreciate the points you brought up.
Thanks for watching!
If someone makes that flip book please make a video, I love that idea xD
The A.I. art is quite impressive, some are very fitting!
Thanks for watching until the end! 🤜🤛
The AI birds of paradise was my favorite. Thankyou for sharing.
Yes - that one came out cool!
Good stuff. I was getting ready to make a video on this tomorrow. Then Tavis linked me this one. You make almost every point that I was going to make. I still might make my video but you beat me to it. :) I've heard the arguments and, I could be wrong, but I just don't feel this conspiracy.
Appreciate the solidarity 👍 If you do make a video come back and drop a comment so I can check it out.
damn the art is really neat
Wild, right?
Mike, I think you have made great points, all very convincing and good against the current narrative.
I have one inquiry. This product essentially sold out in the exact same amount of time as the 30th countdown. How is this possible? I am not saying that it is impossible, but something does not add up.
It is a function of secret lair supply and demand, but my assumption is that both are higher for the countdown. This also does not account for quantity of purchases per customer.
I am not sure this is enough to make a statement, but it is perhaps another angle for us to consider when thinking about what happened.
Yeah, that is very strange… As I said in the beginning, I’m not against the theory that this was pulled (either at a prearranged time, or due to slow volume), I just don’t see that explanation jumping out of the data. That doesn’t mean I can ignore some of these strange coincidences. The water is very muddy, not sure what to make of it all… 🤔🤔
"They pump out product like Godzilla on laxatives" LOL!!!!! Holy shit, where's my Superchat donation button b/c that's worth at least $25!
Another enjoyable video.
I particularly enjoyed the cut scenes. 😂
Nice work! 👍
Thanks Tavis!
'selling out' is problematic, though since they would have printed any amount and set aside any amount for promotional purposes
Yup. If they said "sold out" then showed up to some con or event with 10 boxes, there would be another uproar about it being printed again. Seems most likely to me they tried to dodge one hole and fell in another instead.
No time to watch the video right now but before I forget... has anyone ever looked really closely at phantasmal terrain? I'm trying to make sense of the blurry stuff in the middle. Is it an image? Are they letters? Mike I feel like if anyone knows the answer to this, it's you
I’ve stared that one for a long time too, and I’m not sure. For a while I thought it might be a different card fading into this one, but I don’t think so. I’m going to have to stare at it again after work for a while lol
It's illusionary grass floating just over the barren earth.
The small tree at the right hand side is also a floating illusion if you look closely at the trunk.
@@TavisKingsChannel thanks Tavis! Love the way you worded this… “over the barren earth.” I think you should start being contracted to write flavor text!
I might be wrong, but I think you’re getting more traffic related to the 30th anniversary and if so it’s well deserved! Had to chuckle when you mentioned “the magic historian” when I’d argue you’re more the historian of the two channels. As always an even handed, funny video.
Thanks 🙏
He’s funny, especially in his live streams. His ranting and cursing rises to the level of poetic!
Ha!
Appreciate your measured analysis - wondering if we can read anything into the ebay completed and current listings data - seems like a couple dozen have sold through and a similar amount still listed - does this indicate anything about supply/demand and possibly amount sold by wizards?
The artwork at the end is amazing like others have said. Would be really cool to have a separate video on that :) -Gary
Thanks 🙏 It’s a lot less than I expected, days out from the sale. It’s hard to draw a straight analysis against other products because there are two unknowns… The print run of this set and the print run of the comparison set. There are definitely answers buried in here. I’m just not sure how to tease them out. As for the art, yeah I find that so mind blowing. I’m really glad so many people are commenting about it. I think I will make a quick video.
It was a very early assumption that it would be pulled early, and most people seemed to believe that's what would go down. Whether or not it was, who really knows. I tend to think it was under-sold and taken down, but I really appreciate your take on it because it's just as likely that it really sold out.
The thing coming out just today is that the listing has gone back up several times, and people have been able to purchase more, but that could very well be a bug. Yeah wotc was selling more overseas well after the sale but it's also anyone's guess how much was available.
I think it's safe to say that wotc either has a ton left for future promotions or they plan to print a ton more for the same reason. Great video, though. I like the longer format
The more comments that come in, the more I feel like I have no idea what happened lol. I heard that about the site, though reports seem mixed. In any case, I do suspect they ended up with plenty, either on purpose or due to low sales. Thanks for the comment!
@AlphaHoarder Yeah seriously lol. I don't think we'll ever know for sure, but I guess it's more likely they just sold out simply because the most ordinary answer is generally correct.
The front page website allowed you to add to cart but when you check out there was nothing in your cart. (Same as it was toward the end of the sale, before it went offline) If you clicked “learn more” that page of the site said “out of stock”.
I could see pulling it as a means of trying to manage the stock price. I don't think they give two craps about us as customers, but I do think they bow to shareholders. And, shareholders are not happy right now. If the largest gamble by them in a decade were to be left open for the entire day, it would definitely show negatively to investors who are now paying attention to what is happening with the company. I have always had queue times for secret lairs, and doubly so, for the other 30th offering. The fact there was zero wait is telling. I believe they either had an incredibly small print run (which will incidentally make them incredibly valuable), or it just did not sell overly well. Optics are everything with Wall Street, and a non sellout would be a terribly thing to telegraph heading into the end of the year. That being said, we will know for sure when results release. A large bump from a product like this will be impossible to miss.
Yeah, I do think there’s something to that. Although I would say, profits are weighted higher than optics, when it comes down to it. I’ll be very interested to find out! As I mentioned, in the video, I’m not against the theory, it would be a reasonable thing to do to manage a sale. I’m just not sure how we got so confidently from point A to point B. But then again, I can be think sometimes 😅
@@AlphaHoarder I def. don't think it is a forgone conclusion it went this way. I am just thinking what I would do in the situation. The stock (as are all stocks) are basically traded by algorithm. Mostly they seem to be triggered by news more than anything. That is why you can pick the minute in J Powell's speeches where the market proceeds to crash every single time. I think earnings will be down across the board for all industries. Even with the 30th (assuming it is a success), I think they will be down. Again, purely speculative as we just don't have any info., if I know I am taking a hit on earnings, I want to start the dip from the highest point I can. The stock already took a beating from the BoA report. If you added in the sale going for the entire day essentially proving lack of demand, I think the algorithms would pick it up and drive the price down a bit. But that is just me guessing. It could have sold like crazy, though I would expect to see a lot more moving on the secondary if there were that much in demand. Rudy's 6.9 kits had more listings for pre-order.
Good points. I agree the secondary market is the most interesting metric. It's not something I've tracked for past sales, since my head far from this modern stuff, so I don't know what to consider normal. This strikes me as "too quiet" but I'm also hesitant to try and compare directly. The Rudy kit comparison is an interesting one, since that was like $700 and the flip value was highly speculative. I'm going to have to let that one simmer and go back and look at listings...
Rewatched the end of this video again for the AI art works. Pretty wild. All of them are pretty stunning, but myy favorites are the ones where the original art was a little funky or umm tedious.. like... look at that Natural Selection and that Icy Manipulator
Yeah I know what you mean. Air Elemental impressed me too, not that the original is dull, but the realistic take was unexpectedly captivating.
Thanks for being my voice of reason. I enjoy your videos!
I’ll endeavor to at least be a voice, even if I can’t promise to be a voice of reason! Thanks for watching 👍
I agree with you 100%
Thanks for the solidarity - I’m getting pounded in the comments lol!
I hear a sound... a pounding sound... thump thump thump.... Mike@@!@!!! I agree 9.5 out of 10 @gemMintMTG 🤠 Luv ya Mike!
@@AlphaHoarder everyone said it was going to sell out, then it sells out and everyone says it’s a conspiracy
Those artwork were sick.
i wonder if Mike, every time he's sees a Jump card for sale, sings softly "might as well Jump....Jump!"
i can hear the synthesizer now.....lol
🤣 you know it
Do we know the print run?
Total inventory produced, amount warehoused, and amount sold?
While I agree with your assessment on the demand being lower so the servers not struggling, and feel hasbro would be more interested in books that public perception, it seems like a stretch to claim this was more limited than, anything really.
word on the street... 14k boxes (with 4 packs each) were made and 21% sold... Totally unconfirmed... just a word on the street.
@@EdwintheMagicEngineer Is the street in texas near a card printing facility?
Kind of interesting how Reddit is showing video of it being reposted for sale.
I heard about this. An interesting development, but another situation where it’s going to be very hard to know how to interpret what it means. Did anyone get a confirmed order? Or was it all that weird glitched version where you add to cart, go to checkout, and nothing is there?
Hey Mike, thanks for keeping us up to date on this whole 30th Anniversary situation. I really enjoyed your video about long-term card preservation, by the way. You're one of the only people I've found on youtube who spends as much mental energy as I do trying to keep your cards in good condition. I'm in the process of moving all of my Yugioh stuff to toploaders and have also been trying to find the right binder setup for the less valuable Yugioh cards and my Pokemon collection as well, so I appreciate your detailed thoughts on the subject. I look forward to more great videos man.
Thanks for that! Really appreciate it. Although, many might correct you to say I’m “wasting” that much mental energy 🤣 Very glad to hear I’ve got company who understand how special these hobbies can be.
It clearly DID NOT sell out, as today it was available again. Lasted a good half hour. Who knows, maybe it will be available again tomorrow?
I heard about that. It’s an interesting twist 🧐
Great video mate. Very insightful and indepth. Really enjoy your data and commentary. Do you still think it's sold out now a few days after making this?
Can you please do a video on Alpha v Beta print runs and what effect there would be if there were more Alpha rares in the market than the 1008 stated by Peter Adkinson and what if there were less than 3024 Beta rares due to Alpha rares found in Beta starters? I'm of the belief there are 1100 Alpha rares and 2900 Beta rares printed based on what i may or may not have misinterpreted from Tavis King...
Thanks mate
I do not. I received some insider details shortly after posting the video, and within 24 hours of that, the reddit sales leak appeared. The two numbers were not identical but *very* close making me think they came for two different sources. Based on the new information, I believe I was wrong.
Thanks for the video idea, I’ll give that some thought! Appreciate you watching.
So, the one thing this does, assuming it did sell out, is put the upper boundary of the print run somewhere between Alpha and Beta -- my guess is it's close to the latter as they had to have held some back for the future. In 35-ish minutes there's only 2000 seconds (30 minutes is 1800 seconds -- 2000 makes the math easy and is a reasonable approximation). 2000 seconds * 15 boxes/second * 2 boxes per purchase means roughly 60,000 boxes sold as an upper limit. That's $60 mil. We can plug all of this into Tavis's spreadsheets and it should spit out some plausible numbers.
The most telling thing to me, and it's a weird one, is that the Singapore allocation appears to be 800 boxes. Did they get 1 percent? 5 percent? The leftovers? Who knows? It's a big unknown as to how this really went. I'm reserving judgement until the quarterly report, and it's not going to affect me until at the earliest next year.
Thanks for taking the time to logically step through it.
Very interesting thought about the Singapore allocation. I wonder if there are historical data points we could use to reverse engineer their geographical allocations 🤔 I’m looking forward to Tavis’s next analysis.
I think they printed something like 25k boxes and sold like 20k or more of it. I believe they 100% kept some product.
A great analysis but a lot of the analysis has to change with the product going up again.
Also, the fact the secondary market has continued to remain thin… It’s been a few days since recording, and I was watching ebay to see if that would start changing. It hasn’t, much. 14 listings, 11 sold, as of this moment. 🧐🤔
Mike, I must know the name of the song you played over the AI-generated card portion. So beautiful 😢
It is… It was the most beautiful track I could find on a royalty free sound site. It’s called, “introspection” but there’s no artist attribution, unfortunately.
6:22. You're perfectly fine. Definantly don''t see a highly trained psychologists 😂
😂😅
sounds costly and would probably impact the collection buying ..
I want to hear more about the AI bot that made those images and can they be printed? They where awesome looking?
It’s called Midjourney, and you message it through Discord and it replies with the images it made. There’s a free version that lets you generate 25 per month or something, then a paid version for unlimited. It’s advancing so fast it’s mind-boggling… But it spits those out at 1000px by 1000px, so it would definitely be big enough to print at magic card size.
@@AlphaHoarder tyvm for the reply!! That's good to know.
Great centering on those alphas
It didnt even sell 5000 units imho.
Definitely plausible. I hope it’s true!
Who cares if it sold out? The question is, did it make Hasbro enough revenue that this will push them down the road of doing more of these series, that is the real question. Regardless if it sold out or not, i think it made them bank....unfortunately.
Also huge props for some Performance/Load Test Love!! Getting into my area now, hahaha.
Good points. At their cost basis, it’s hard for them to “lose” isn’t it… 😩 Lol, glad you appreciate that too 👍
I take issue with the entire debate because the whole notion of being “sold out” is a meaningless concept here-when they can just print to demand. For example, suppose demand was and order of magnitude greater than they were expecting, do you think they would have just turned their back on 10s of millions of dollars? That would be lunacy. So the logical conclusion must be that they did cut off the sale eventually because of the slowing sales rate, but that was likely the plan all along. So for example if the minimum marginal printing order is 1000 packs, say they had sold 7950 packs in the first 30 minutes, with 95% of those sales coming in the first 10 minutes, then it probably makes sense to cut it off at 8000 packs.
Yeah, that’s a good reframing. There’s no doubt they’re keeping some on the side for events and things like that… So it makes sense there was always room to shuffle between the sale and the held inventory. Thanks for the insight 👍
Magic Hostorian almost has to claim it sold out. His channel is built on WOTC negativity and consumer rage. Saying it was pulled makes people feel like they won. It creates a lot less rage. WOTC either revolutionized e commerce, or after they sold their target amount they pulled it down…….what seems more likely?
Yeah, it’s definitely possible, hopefully time will tell. My thinking is, if the sale was more of a slow burn than a rush, which we might expect from an unpopular over priced product, I’m not sure they’d have to revolutionize too much for it to run smoothly. As for creating rage, it seems like that ship has sailed for them 😂
Hit to the wall by Who FLung DUng, Who flung Poo! and a Table Flip, I'm outraged!! 🤓
That art at the end was stunning. An ai created those??
Yeah, nuts, isn’t it? I cropped the image into the card frame, but didn’t otherwise adjust/edit/touchup those at all. Almost scary…
Wont we be able to tell with q4 numbers?
It’s got to be buried in there somewhere!
Rudy gives you a shoutout at 4:25 of his new video 🤣
Just watched 😂 Well, at least my wife’s boyfriend is a sweet dude.
@@AlphaHoarder Hey atleasts that means he watches your vids
I was testing the site when it was shut down at 30 mins and had an queue with no wait-time . Joel and Jake are MTG did a livestream showing low demand the whole time the product was available. The product was priced to only be for UA-camrs, pack opening channels and for stupid whales. Turns out with the hate for the product, no UA-camrs or pack opening channels dared to buy the product. Wizards couldn't even give the product away and pay thousands to UA-camrs to open it. Think about that for a moment, they couldn't pay people to open it. No MTG channel would do a showcase for 30th Anniv. It also turns out that whales aren't that stupid and want value for their money. They would rather buy real cards instead of expensive proxies that need to be proxied. The site also went live again yesterday to take more orders for some reason although I don't I heard there was confirmation that people actually were able to complete the transaction. Hasbro would have been touting the fact it sold out on Twitter had it done so, they did it for multiple products in the recent past. Whatever the case, we will find out on Ebay in the next month from single prices and availability and from Q4 reporting in January.
That’s an interesting idea that it was specifically targeted to the influencer types, in addition to whales. The first category certainly rejected it - resoundingly! I’ve heard mixed results from the various whales I have access to (directly or second hand, anyway), but even that says something. They’re not usually ones to skip over a product. Def could be the case that I got this one wrong. Appreciate the input 👍
@@AlphaHoarder Well they make for great opening drama. People will click to see people lose a $1000 dollars. Just look at OpenBoosters' channel. He loses tens of thousands on some of his openings. Like Rudy said, he could get the packs virtually for free from the UA-cam ad revenue generated from the pack openings if he wanted to but he resisted to try to save MTG. People also watch UA-camrs/influencers and try to mimic the behavior in our society now sadly.
I can't see them pulling the sale to save face considering how bad the customer base reacted to the product already. Seems they don't care about public perception
Agreed, that’s my thinking too… which means the only face they’re worried about is the one on Wall Street… And those guys are probably more interested in the earnings report and what they manage to sell, rather than the optics of a sale that was up for a few hours vs a few minutes.
maybe we're all thinking about this wrong... i mean have you considered how many jumps you could get in 4 packs of mtg 30?
also be careful with that AI wizards might sue you for making proxies
🤣🤣
Oh no I’ve made a grave miscalculation 😂 so many Jumps for the Hoard!!
They only announce sold out on the major event items. This was one, and they said some weird shit. And they would rub it in if it did
In regards to ticket sales apparently.
@@patmacrotch5611 mythic edition
@@junglerumbler6917 That's one example, that ebay tweeted it first, years ago, and so that hardly shows a pattern.
@@patmacrotch5611 where’s the examples of other sales ending with this wording?
@@junglerumbler6917 You tell me, you are the ones making a claim based on the wording.
They should be ashamed of themselves for canceling the strippers and after party! Lol
🤣
Excellent video, but a little inaccurate. You said the only content creator you saw not agreeing with the idea about wotc "pulling the product" was the Historian. Perhaps you are not aware I am a content creator, or perhaps you did not hear Jake point out my doubt (I said a few things doubting this on the stream) Jake pointed out each of these. If you rewatch it ua-cam.com/video/yfPNT0KjlQc/v-deo.html at 59:05, you will see I was questioning the accuracy of the "pulled sale" immediately. I feel it sold through. A web search states there are 40 million MTG fans, I will be conservative on that number and use 20 million instead. Jake and Joel did a poll of more than 3,500 respondents asking how many will buy 30CE, 2% said yes. the highest print run projections are 120k boxes I have seen in the community (from the Tavis King video) . Being even more skeptical I am using only 1% actually want to purchase the product, that would mean a demand of a minimum of 200,000 boxes. This also does not account for those who wanted to purchase more than 1 box. I subscribe to the idea that the theory with the least amount of assumptions is that the product sold out in 33 minutes (occam's razor). I want to acknowledge most of my numbers are NOT based on empirical data, I am simply using the most commonly accepted numbers I can find. WotC should be more transparent about numbers imho. The official reprint policy has said for many years that the RL only applies to tournament legal cards, I even did a video on it nearly 2 years ago ua-cam.com/video/7eb5Xml1uuU/v-deo.html . I further went on to talk with lawyers about the legal ramifications about reprinting the RL, but that is a different discussion.
Ah, sorry didn’t mean to snub anyone! I should have been clear that I didn’t do any wide sample, I only meant out of the videos I’d happened across as if that point. I checked out the RL video you did a year back, and man that aged well! You had this one on the nose a year ago. Your numbers above are eminently reasonable, thanks for doing that math for us 👍
@@AlphaHoarder I am sorry if I came across snotty. I very much appreciate your efforts to try to look at events with a reasonable cool head. I did purchase 30CE and personally know others that did. I am not rich nor am I a whale. I also did not recommend anyone to buy nor abstain from buying 30CE. I have tried my best to encourage a non-emotional approach to the product and decide from there. I also tried to point out inaccuracies like "they are proxies", while it is possible they are but you can proxy an AFR basic land with an Alpha Black Lotus too (but why would you?) I cant imagine anyone calling an Alpha Black Lotus a proxy. In reality these are REAL, non-tournament legal, COMMEMORATIVE MTG cards. I doubt you will see very many being purchased for nor used as proxies. (Why would you proxy an expensive card with a non-tournament legal expensive card??) Also the claims that the product is the ONLY item WotC has made for the 30th Anniversary is a laughable claim, I can go into that more if you wish. Others claim 30th CE was marketed at everyone, this is also false. They never said this is for everyone in either the announcement video nor the product description page (the closest they say to that is "We had to create an experience for fans new and old"). I believe many angry people make the false assumption that "new" fans don't have the financial means to purchase a $999 product. From the very announcement WotC stated exactly what the product is and how much it costs. I am not a WotC shill. I believe WotC has many problems that need fixing like poor quality control, bad public relations, poor marketing, lack of transparency for many things including print run metrics. However, I am just as critical of MTG fans, content creators, etc. when I see false claims or faulty logic.
While I appreciate your video, I think you are giving Hasbro & WotC executives too much credit regarding how to please Wall Street. When it comes to the financial world, sentiment is stronger than reality. It is possible that the executives felt they were smarter than the rubes who buy their product (their articulated viewpoint of their customers) and could fool them into thinking it sold out by pulling it. I am not saying you are wrong, just pointing out that high ranking executives are not very smart, simply rich sociopaths.
With the pushback against Magic 30th, I think the ivory tower would gladly rub it in the noses of their detractors if it truly sold out. The amount of victory dances by Chris Cochs and Mark Rosewater would be unbearable.
We will never know the truth as we don't know how large the print run was or the total sales. We can infer from Q4 results, but there will not be any specific sales details. At the end of the day, we have to circle back to sentiment: the MTG community believes that they pulled the sale because it was a failure. Hasbro loses face either way.
You could very well be right. It could, in fact, be that the recent precedent of ignoring pushback has come to a head, making this *even more important* in terms of face. I think that’s a very plausible idea, I just wasn’t sure if the data points got us there yet. And good point about Cochs and Rosewater…
Simp alert.
Don’t be so hard on yourself. No need to announce that every time you walk into a room.
😁
I don't give a S*** about anything else. I've never heard zeitgeist properly used casually in a sentence before and I'm awed. Bravo!😁 And as always, you're insights are appreciated. 🤛
Hahaha thanks appreciate that 🤜🤛
& the Natural Selection is 1k better 🤣
This didn’t age well
😂 nope. I didn’t think we had enough to conclude at the time… but now, we definitely do
🌺 'promo sm'.
I disagree with you. There's not something wrong with you, there's a lot.
You might be on to something…
Mike! Where the hell have you been?
Lost in the void! Thanks for dropping by 🤜🤛
Who's pulling it. ?? XD 😆 everyone getting pulled , or doing some pulling. Pull over!
Pull some Pork. Poltergeist pulled it like a pullover, No wait that's a Cartigan!!
Frigging luv ya Mike, and I'm not pulling your leg here!
Calibrated Pulling , with a pull-O-Meter from the ACME pulling company. Maximize me with a dose of Copionium, and a copesicle, I feel like crawling into the corner with a copy of the power9, and pulling the covers over my head.XD
It's not what you know. It's what you look like doing it !!
Brody!!!! I keep seeing your morning streams running, as I’m getting the kids ready for school, but I always miss them by the time that’s done 😩 Have a backlog to catch up on!
You've got your priorities set to Stunn! As usual Mike. Get the family off to work safely, I'll be there when you get back. All good , appreciate the well wishes. There has got to be a professional development day coming up sometime soon. 🙌
I haven't finished watching the video, and you might have heard by now, but apparently the 30th edition went back up for sale a couple of hours ago again, which confirms they just pulled it to try to save face. There are several threads on the mtg subreddits discussing this situation.
It did not go back up for sale. I saw those videos claiming that too and tried it for myself. They are full of crap.
I have heard some rumbling about that, but when I went to look, it just says out of stock. Is that what they mean? It changed from sold out to out of stock? Perhaps they unhooked the website from the inventory system and made it a static page… this is another one of these cases where it’s gonna be *very* hard to know if it means anything or not 🤷♂️
@@AlphaHoarder i think it was a glitch that was corrected by their web admin. i was able to add the thing into the cart this morning but when i went to check out, the product wasn't there.
@@lastofusclips5291 people jumping to conclusions saying "see proof it isn't sold out"... is honestly just sad the amount of effort put into believing what they want to be true vs what is actually true. One youtuber had a poll and 90% of the poll believed WOTC pulled the product after 34 minutes vs the reality that they sold their stock for the sale. I appreciated Alpha Hoarders video because it was the best video discussing the reality of the situation instead of trying to find mysterious tin foil hat clues in the sky about how maybe the players actually won and wotc lost somehow and analyzing the wording to draw conclusions that make them feel better about it... The whole thing just made me very disgusted with how easily people can be led to believe what makes them feel better.
@@AlphaHoarder Yeah apparently most comments claim that there was no actual inventory, and people are suggesting it might have been a mistake.
Long story short is time will tell. This channel is an oasis from the conspiracy laden hyperbole raged content other channels are putting out. I have unsub from most as I can't stand the MTG Finance echo chamber anymore. I want it 30th to succeed as to diminish whatever MTG Finance influence perceived or real will wane. The irony is a failure will only make these cards even more valuable in the long term as angry memories will fade. I would have bought a box but again I don't have an exit strategy and have enough cards in that price range to deal with. I would have kept it sealed too. The AI art is absolutely incredible.
Time will tell indeed, and yes that irony is well spotted. Curious to see how that will manifest in a few years’ time. The AI art is really wild, I can’t believe what kind of creativity comes from these systems…
Heads up for any new people this guy pre-ordered some of the mtg 30th cards so he is just as biased as the other youtubers.
I certainly have my biases, as we all do. I do my best to air them, but I’m not perfect. That being what it is, I can tell you for certain that I did not order any of this product, nor will I.
In his defense you did say you already bought Birds and Serra Angel for your global sets.
@@patmacrotch5611 I'm pretty sure he said he pre-ordered some of the cards I didn't mean a whole box but whatever
@@Naturessightsandsounds7040 I was supporting your statement by listing the cards he said he purchased...
Buying two singles on the secondary market is Not the same thing as preordering a box from anyone.