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"Hope you found this useful" Ah...yeah mate I did. I tip my hat to you good sir. I could listen to you all day, fascinating stuff. 26 years of study and expertise distilled into a short video. You're a good man Raoul.
Our pleasure - if you feel like investing more time with a damn high ROI, take a look at more of the long-form videos at www.realvisiontv.com There's more of Raoul, plus Jim Rogers, Kyle Bass, John Burbank, Hugh Hendry ... the list goes on ...
How does this ISM correlation correlate with "reccession proof" industries? Specifically, it seems we're leading into a recession, but the marijuana industry in North America is booming.
This has got to be the single most valuable video on youtube! I have read a couple of books about economic indicators, and a number of serious books (I have lost count) on economics, but I have never seen economic data analyzed in such a revealing manner.
I would absolutely suggest every retail investor to watch and understand this thoroughly. This is true investing, not technical analysis or all those scams out there.
The thing I really like about you (Raoul) is your humility...it's a rare thing in the financial world. Then, on top of that you know your stuff. I remember seeing you on CNBC about a year and half ago and thought, "I need to find out who this guy is!" Thanks for your work and being so transparent. Next time your in the Chicago area let me know. Love to have a cup of coffee with you. (Or maybe I just visit you in the Caymans...and we can have a rum runner...either way works!) God Bless you...Pete
Amazing. I'm going to need to watch this more than once. Amazingly the things you said about the business cycle and it being cyclical are the same things I had been thinking.
This is by far one of the most educatonal videos I've watched in a long time. If people are smart they will watch it in it's entirety....Thanks for posting this guys
Thanks a lot for sharing such an invaluable asset, it not only demonstrates what is going on, but also indicates that the tunnel we are living is still lighted by the blindness of FED!
Thank you very much Sir, really Enlightening and crucial In-depth brilliant Macro and Business cycle analyses. This is why I purchased your Real Vision Essential course. Thank you!
Great piece Raoul. When you are doing these charts are you looking exclusively at manufacturing? How do you account for the shift of US importance from manufacturing to non-manufacturing and is it significant enough to alter the recession percentages historically? Thank you.
Thank you for this and the other fascinating RV videos I've been watching all night! As someone coming from a medical career, who was introduced to the world of finance and trading late last year-and discovering it's not only something I can do as someone disabled and mainly home-bound; I've found myself totally immersed in learning economics and fundamentals of finance-and absolutely LOVING it! Just FYI-here in the US, I attained 2 advanced degrees in Science and Medicine. Not one school required I take more than Econ 100. I've been contacting my former schools to try and explain why that needs to change. We'll see if anything actually happens.
I DO have a question though about your and other's predictions of the RESULTS of the insane monetary policy implemented these past 8+ years. While everyone explains the causes and effects; I'm not hearing any viable solutions? In other words, how in the HELL are we going to get ourselves out of this unprecedented mess of debt??!! Personally, I'm currently at the lowest point financially I've been in my adult life; HOWEVER, I have absolutely NO debt what-so-ever, and not because of bankruptcy. One of the reasons I'm in this position is because I paid off my extreme medical & educational, etc. debt-and learned to live very simply. I just don't understand how major economic powers will deal with the amt of debt they have?
Thanks for sharing, makes perfect sense to me. In a world full of misinformation, contradictions and false biases from all different media sources this video gives a better way to view macroeconomic forcasts of how and where to find a better return.
Thank you Raoul and Real Vision: this is stunning in that it's clear, well thought out, and actionable. You've made a believer out of me and I look forward to subscribing and using your framework.
3:18 (The Secular Cycle) 6:00 (Long Term Equity Cycle) 8:32 (Commodities Cycles) 10:00 (Debt Super Cycle) 14:07 (Business Cycle) 15:00 (The ISM) 22:32 (Forecasting asset prices using the business cycle) 27:00 (Building a Forecast Framework)
Would you consider updating this to the end of 2018 and tie in with some of your other observations and beliefs re changing demographics? It would be very illuminating for those of us who do not have your knowledge or experience.
Thank you. Lovely to hear a voice of rational sanity. This has been invaluable in supporting my intuitive understanding of how markets should function, interpreted only on a cyclical basis.
Hi Luis, thanks for watching. Raoul often presents or gives interviews on realvision.com. We have 14-day free trial if you'd like to check out the platform.
Very good.....making sense out of something that traditionalist absolutely have wrong. More people like this in our world the less crisis we would have. Thank you Raoul Pal
Been saying this since 2010! Over the past 30 years our economy, and as a result, world economies, experienced the greatest prosperity the world has ever know, all built on the back of debt using the following stimulus. *Consumer debt to disposable income doubled from 1980 to 2007, 60% to 125%. *Government debt to GDP tripled from 1980 to 2012, 35% to 100%. *Interest and mortgage rates dropped by 85%, from 1980 to 2012. *Consumers could borrow with little proof of income, from 2004 to 2008. As a result, GDP grew by 5.5 times, from 2.7 trillion in 1980 to $15 trillion today. World economies, and their consumers have taken debt to their extreme limits. Europe is fast deleveraging, Japan is on the brink at 240% debt to GDP. Our state and local governments are broke. NONE OF THESE STIMULUS CAN HAPPEN AGAIN! Consumers can not double their debt again. Governments can not triple their debt again. Interest rates will not drop by 85% again. Consumers can not borrow without proof of income again. Without these stimulus, GDP can not grow by 5.5 times over the next 30 years again. WE MUST NOW LIVE ON WHAT WE EARN.
So very comforting, many thanks...I've been especially concerned about the US buying up all the debt, no one would give me an answer. Now I know why not. We all learn as we grow.
excellent piece. Government & central bank policies are actually a good way to forecast the ISM, 12 to 18 month in advance.trouble is, with so many stimulus in the pipeline they start losing their efficiency.
I highly respect your generosity to share this video and incredible prudence to enlighten the public rather than to condemn the stupidity of universities and Fed's reckless market manipulating efforts, backed by Ivy league scholars. As you can see in CECI US graph, the distorted market trend by Fed especially during 15 and 16 is obviously clear; as a result, we might continue to experience record high stock market. Unfortunately, what Fed doesn't understand is the fact that manipulation won't help advance of human species at all but rather prevent us from going forward.
Excellent video, thank you Raoul. Have you ever consider charting presidential election year (voter turn out) cycles in the US and the ISM...that goes a bit more into the behavior side of things; just curious as to how the chart would correlate. My guess would be high turn out pushes for a point of change in the direction or support for continuation of a trend.
How do you predict price of commodities by looking at ISM chart? The ISM isn't going into the future(/ahead of commodities) so how does one use it to predict anything? Yes you can look at the trends, but the trends are changing and you can't see that in the ISM... Basically my point is, If the chart of ISM generally matches commodities you might aswell just look at the trends in commodities and leave the ISM out of it, no ?
I had this same question initially, but after reviewing the video again, it seems that by using the complete framework of moving down from the secular cycle, to the business cycle, to the short term cycle, you could use the CESI Index to project which way the ISM is headed in the near term, and use this forecasted ISM level to forecast the YOY change in a given commodity (based on how the ISM levels line up with historical YOY% levels). So say you have an educated guess of the ISM heading towards 50 or so. You could overlay the ISM with the YOY change in some commodity, and see what the change could be when the ISM is around 50 historically, and apply that change to the current price of that commodity and make that your forecast for the next year. That's my guess as to how you could use the ISM for commodity forecasting
Exactly Irfan Hussain, If you take the copper chart, around 91 period : the ISM crossed 50 and continued higher ( after a long period of decline ) 2 years later the price copper was going higher ( with a delay of 1 year .. 1,5 y ) ... and when the ISM hit around 60 ( a record for a long period ), the price of copper months later hit a higher around 75 -80. the ISM PMI ( among other ) is one of the main leading indicators watched closely by professionals ... more than that, for short term business cycles, you can get qualitative statements in the ISM reports talking about the sectors that doing well and those doing bad, and what they're forecasting + the demand of commodities ( which will affect prices ).
Huge Big Tick - 1. I had some astute & honest teachers in Political Science & Economics who 1. yes: taught the strict curriculum, but 2. dropped hints about 'real world economics', for example the neglected, unfashionable field of behavioural economics (Thorstein Veblen) and other Paradigmatic thinkers eg Joseph Schumpeter's long innovation-investment cycle 3. Pure Math Grad friend said (correctly) "it is invalid to statistically extrapolate outside the original/source data-set" 4. Which is confirmed by BLUE & BUE estimates that are set up in very sophisticated modelling-form but involve very large error terms once the forecast is pushed-out (even for very high R2 & P) 5. For myself I independently found the story of Nikolai Kondratieff (1865-1938) and how his views led to his being purged in a labour camp by the Soviet authorities in 1938. Probably because repetitive/recurrent cyclical models not in sync with the great hope for 'Socialism in One Country' 1917-1945 6. Finally Joseph Clement Juglar, a Fr. physician & statistician discovered the decadal (10 year) business cycle. Which can be quite easily picked-up (with some variation in ea. economy) post WW2 1966, 76, 86, 96, '06 ... '16 (points of inflection ?)
Interesting, novel and so much better than the usual which is someone encouraging you to buy what they are selling. But, even in those charts, price seems to be instantly baked in. So, even if casual, how does it help you invest? Seems like price is reflected in whatever your holding or buying before you can move. In other words ISM is a predictor, coincident, or instantaneous effect? Seems like in order to be useful, you would need to predict the ISM with some amount of certainty ahead of time.
Raoul Pal, this is very informative, thank you. I look forward to sharing this as part of my content in a blog post I'm doing on market cycles and Efficient Market Hypothesis if that's alright with you. Let me know, cheers!
Hello, little question for anyone reading this: Does CPI or inflation really matter in countries that can borrow in their own currency since we switched to fiat money? It seems to me that the Fed responsibilities are outdated
There are two, maybe more, options for the self-directed investor: www.yardeni.com/pub/highfreqcb_bb.pdf >> See graph displayed on page 5 of pdf document us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500/ >> Additional information (drop down menu) >> Download 'Earnings' spreadsheet >> It contains a tab with the Estimates & Surprises. Hope it helps.
Mike Maloney has some great tips on Wealth Cycles if any of you are interested as well. Measuring charts not in dollars and via other currencies and commodities is very interesting. As well, Jim Rogers speaks alot about commodities which might help you in your understanding on cycles. Good luck. Keep investing. :)
@@JM-gu3txDECEMBER 2020 HERE, the trend is that SOUTH KOREA STOCK MARKET is at ALL TIME HIGHS. in a GLOBAL PANDEMIC. lol, that's a trend. i'm suuuuuuure it will crash soon though lol. lol
Get more amazing videos like this on Real Vision Premium for only $1 for 3 Months here: rvtv.io/YTDollarPin
No more waiting for the content to make it here weeks or even months after it was shot and no missing out on insights and information that move markets. Better yet.... No advertisements! Join today!
Brilliant video thank you very much could you please show me where I can maybe extrapolate the data from so I can reproduce all of those charts.
"Hope you found this useful" Ah...yeah mate I did. I tip my hat to you good sir. I could listen to you all day, fascinating stuff. 26 years of study and expertise distilled into a short video. You're a good man Raoul.
Best invested 40 min of my time today. Thank you!
Our pleasure - if you feel like investing more time with a damn high ROI, take a look at more of the long-form videos at www.realvisiontv.com
There's more of Raoul, plus Jim Rogers, Kyle Bass, John Burbank, Hugh Hendry ... the list goes on ...
Thanks for sharing your intellectual capital so generously.
Our pleasure - Real Vision stands for getting this kind of information out into the open. There's way more at www.realvisiontv.com
How does this ISM correlation correlate with "reccession proof" industries? Specifically, it seems we're leading into a recession, but the marijuana industry in North America is booming.
@@RealVisionFinance Charles Nenner is 'a cycles man' - I ve been following him but I dont understand. Thanks for sharing.
This has got to be the single most valuable video on youtube! I have read a couple of books about economic indicators, and a number of serious books (I have lost count) on economics, but I have never seen economic data analyzed in such a revealing manner.
I would absolutely suggest every retail investor to watch and understand this thoroughly. This is true investing, not technical analysis or all those scams out there.
I can't believe this is free. Learned more in 40 minutes than a whole class in school ahah. Keep up the great work RV and Raoul Pal!
These videos are making the world a better place. Thank you!
It is now the third time that I watch this video and every time I seem to learn something new! Thank you very much
Really accessible for a novice. Thanks for your time and effort putting these videos together.
Always appreciate the quality of these conversations & your generosity in making them available to the people
The best video (tutorial) I have seen on real world economics yet. Thanks.
The thing I really like about you (Raoul) is your humility...it's a rare thing in the financial world. Then, on top of that you know your stuff. I remember seeing you on CNBC about a year and half ago and thought, "I need to find out who this guy is!" Thanks for your work and being so transparent. Next time your in the Chicago area let me know. Love to have a cup of coffee with you. (Or maybe I just visit you in the Caymans...and we can have a rum runner...either way works!) God Bless you...Pete
Amazing. I'm going to need to watch this more than once. Amazingly the things you said about the business cycle and it being cyclical are the same things I had been thinking.
A truly exceptional communicator.
This is so brilliant - I look at it every few months to refresh my thoughts about how we are currently doing!
This is by far one of the most educatonal videos I've watched in a long time. If people are smart they will watch it in it's entirety....Thanks for posting this guys
Thanks a lot for sharing such an invaluable asset, it not only demonstrates what is going on, but also indicates that the tunnel we are living is still lighted by the blindness of FED!
Priceless information!!!
It would be great to do an update with current data....
Thank you!!!
Thank you very much Sir, really Enlightening and crucial In-depth brilliant Macro and Business cycle analyses. This is why I purchased your Real Vision Essential course. Thank you!
Great piece Raoul. When you are doing these charts are you looking exclusively at manufacturing? How do you account for the shift of US importance from manufacturing to non-manufacturing and is it significant enough to alter the recession percentages historically? Thank you.
Excellent! Should get more coverage. I Love it.
Thank you for this and the other fascinating RV videos I've been watching all night! As someone coming from a medical career, who was introduced to the world of finance and trading late last year-and discovering it's not only something I can do as someone disabled and mainly home-bound; I've found myself totally immersed in learning economics and fundamentals of finance-and absolutely LOVING it! Just FYI-here in the US, I attained 2 advanced degrees in Science and Medicine. Not one school required I take more than Econ 100. I've been contacting my former schools to try and explain why that needs to change. We'll see if anything actually happens.
I DO have a question though about your and other's predictions of the RESULTS of the insane monetary policy implemented these past 8+ years. While everyone explains the causes and effects; I'm not hearing any viable solutions? In other words, how in the HELL are we going to get ourselves out of this unprecedented mess of debt??!! Personally, I'm currently at the lowest point financially I've been in my adult life; HOWEVER, I have absolutely NO debt what-so-ever, and not because of bankruptcy. One of the reasons I'm in this position is because I paid off my extreme medical & educational, etc. debt-and learned to live very simply. I just don't understand how major economic powers will deal with the amt of debt they have?
Very generous of you to share these insights. Thank you!
Thanks for sharing, makes perfect sense to me.
In a world full of misinformation, contradictions and false biases from all different media sources this video gives a better way to view macroeconomic forcasts of how and where to find a better return.
All comments are thankful for this video
Love what you provide, for those that do not have Real Vision I highly recommend it
Excellent stuff
One of the most educative videos ever!
Thanks for sharing it.
Great Video! Is there a website where you can get all this charting info from or do you get it from different sources?
4 years later, this video aged pretty well. Well done Raoul
You are the best
Holy smack, that was epic! Thanks for sharing such priceless information Raoul.
Thank you Raoul and Real Vision: this is stunning in that it's clear, well thought out, and actionable. You've made a believer out of me and I look forward to subscribing and using your framework.
how'd that forecast work out
"to try to pretend everything is a science is lunacy" this is one of the best quotes of all time.
also the predictions of this video have been one of the most wrong of all time
Real Vision please do a follow up with more insights this was absolutely unreal .
Excellent video...first time I’ve heard someone discuss Kondratieff since the 2000 bubble
What mic do you all use for your videos? Great work by the way!
3:18 (The Secular Cycle)
6:00 (Long Term Equity Cycle)
8:32 (Commodities Cycles)
10:00 (Debt Super Cycle)
14:07 (Business Cycle)
15:00 (The ISM)
22:32 (Forecasting asset prices using the business cycle)
27:00 (Building a Forecast Framework)
Would you consider updating this to the end of 2018 and tie in with some of your other observations and beliefs re changing demographics? It would be very illuminating for those of us who do not have your knowledge or experience.
Thanks for upload
loved this video; thank you for posting it!!
Thank you Raoul! I value your expertise
Tremendous educational overview! That's how premium video content should be executed.
Does anybody know where I can get access to those charts? i.e. Long-Term Equity Cycle, OCGMI Composite Super Cycle, Debt Cycle.
Very informative. Thanks
Thank you. Lovely to hear a voice of rational sanity. This has been invaluable in supporting my intuitive understanding of how markets should function, interpreted only on a cyclical basis.
great video! thank you so much! unlike sharing money, sharing knowledge only leads to a further expansion of knowledge!
Hi Raoul, here from Spain writing you, what software do you use to create the correlated charts (the overlay of assets data)?
great video. As a macro-investor, this has helped me very much. Thank you!!!!!
Raould make more video lectures like this, you have a talent to transmit knowledge, I like a lot to hear your explanations
Hi Luis, thanks for watching. Raoul often presents or gives interviews on realvision.com. We have 14-day free trial if you'd like to check out the platform.
Very good.....making sense out of something that traditionalist absolutely have wrong. More people like this in our world the less crisis we would have. Thank you Raoul Pal
Thanks very much, Raoul.
Interesting to revisit this a year later.
Would be interesting to see an update for 2019
This was outstanding. Thank you Raoul
hey where are your preferred places on the web to get these charts/this information?
Been saying this since 2010!
Over the past 30 years our economy, and as a result, world economies, experienced the greatest prosperity the world has ever know, all built on the back of debt using the following stimulus.
*Consumer debt to disposable income doubled from 1980 to 2007, 60% to 125%.
*Government debt to GDP tripled from 1980 to 2012, 35% to 100%.
*Interest and mortgage rates dropped by 85%, from 1980 to 2012.
*Consumers could borrow with little proof of income, from 2004 to 2008.
As a result, GDP grew by 5.5 times, from 2.7 trillion in 1980 to $15 trillion today.
World economies, and their consumers have taken debt to their extreme limits. Europe is fast deleveraging, Japan is on the brink at 240% debt to GDP. Our state and local governments are broke.
NONE OF THESE STIMULUS CAN HAPPEN AGAIN!
Consumers can not double their debt again.
Governments can not triple their debt again.
Interest rates will not drop by 85% again.
Consumers can not borrow without proof of income again.
Without these stimulus, GDP can not grow by 5.5 times over the next 30 years again.
WE MUST NOW LIVE ON WHAT WE EARN.
Well, here we go again. :)
Excelent Raoul
Amazing charts and very useful actually. Is it possible to get those?
Thanks.-
So very comforting, many thanks...I've been especially concerned about the US buying up all the debt, no one would give me an answer. Now I know why not. We all learn as we grow.
Really great channel and content! I am glad I found it!
excellent work
excellent piece. Government & central bank policies are actually a good way to forecast the ISM, 12 to 18 month in advance.trouble is, with so many stimulus in the pipeline they start losing their efficiency.
Thank you!!🙏
Outstanding! Great insights very clearly communicated and no um, uh or so. Much appreciated your content and delivery.
sir thank you you going to help lots of people with what you are doing thank you
Can't thank you enough for sharing your learning. God bless you.
Raul, I love your insights. Is there an update with actual numbers? Fingers crossed on the Cryptos right now.
I highly respect your generosity to share this video and incredible prudence to enlighten the public rather than to condemn the stupidity of universities and Fed's reckless market manipulating efforts, backed by Ivy league scholars. As you can see in CECI US graph, the distorted market trend by Fed especially during 15 and 16 is obviously clear; as a result, we might continue to experience record high stock market. Unfortunately, what Fed doesn't understand is the fact that manipulation won't help advance of human species at all but rather prevent us from going forward.
Is it possible to get updated information
Excellent video, thank you Raoul. Have you ever consider charting presidential election year (voter turn out) cycles in the US and the ISM...that goes a bit more into the behavior side of things; just curious as to how the chart would correlate. My guess would be high turn out pushes for a point of change in the direction or support for continuation of a trend.
Wonderful insights.
thank you very much
What is on the Y-axis at 7:04? Any idea folks?
How do you predict price of commodities by looking at ISM chart? The ISM isn't going into the future(/ahead of commodities) so how does one use it to predict anything? Yes you can look at the trends, but the trends are changing and you can't see that in the ISM... Basically my point is, If the chart of ISM generally matches commodities you might aswell just look at the trends in commodities and leave the ISM out of it, no ?
I had this same question initially, but after reviewing the video again, it seems that by using the complete framework of moving down from the secular cycle, to the business cycle, to the short term cycle, you could use the CESI Index to project which way the ISM is headed in the near term, and use this forecasted ISM level to forecast the YOY change in a given commodity (based on how the ISM levels line up with historical YOY% levels). So say you have an educated guess of the ISM heading towards 50 or so. You could overlay the ISM with the YOY change in some commodity, and see what the change could be when the ISM is around 50 historically, and apply that change to the current price of that commodity and make that your forecast for the next year. That's my guess as to how you could use the ISM for commodity forecasting
Exactly Irfan Hussain, If you take the copper chart, around 91 period : the ISM crossed 50 and continued higher ( after a long period of decline ) 2 years later the price copper was going higher ( with a delay of 1 year .. 1,5 y ) ... and when the ISM hit around 60 ( a record for a long period ), the price of copper months later hit a higher around 75 -80. the ISM PMI ( among other ) is one of the main leading indicators watched closely by professionals ... more than that, for short term business cycles, you can get qualitative statements in the ISM reports talking about the sectors that doing well and those doing bad, and what they're forecasting + the demand of commodities ( which will affect prices ).
Huge Big Tick - 1. I had some astute & honest teachers in Political Science & Economics who 1. yes: taught the strict curriculum, but 2. dropped hints about 'real world economics', for example the neglected, unfashionable field of behavioural economics (Thorstein Veblen) and other Paradigmatic thinkers eg Joseph Schumpeter's long innovation-investment cycle 3. Pure Math Grad friend said (correctly) "it is invalid to statistically extrapolate outside the original/source data-set" 4. Which is confirmed by BLUE & BUE estimates that are set up in very sophisticated modelling-form but involve very large error terms once the forecast is pushed-out (even for very high R2 & P) 5. For myself I independently found the story of Nikolai Kondratieff (1865-1938) and how his views led to his being purged in a labour camp by the Soviet authorities in 1938. Probably because repetitive/recurrent cyclical models not in sync with the great hope for 'Socialism in One Country' 1917-1945 6. Finally Joseph Clement Juglar, a Fr. physician & statistician discovered the decadal (10 year) business cycle. Which can be quite easily picked-up (with some variation in ea. economy) post WW2 1966, 76, 86, 96, '06 ... '16 (points of inflection ?)
Interesting, novel and so much better than the usual which is someone encouraging you to buy what they are selling. But, even in those charts, price seems to be instantly baked in. So, even if casual, how does it help you invest? Seems like price is reflected in whatever your holding or buying before you can move. In other words ISM is a predictor, coincident, or instantaneous effect? Seems like in order to be useful, you would need to predict the ISM with some amount of certainty ahead of time.
Thank you
Brilliant! I agree entirely. Thank you Raoul, very much appreciated.
Raoul Pal, this is very informative, thank you. I look forward to sharing this as part of my content in a blog post I'm doing on market cycles and Efficient Market Hypothesis if that's alright with you. Let me know, cheers!
No problem Sylvia!
Didnt Kondriatiev only look at commodity prices, his cycles/waves concerned commodity prices nothing else right?
Thanks for sharing. Reminds me of Ray Dalio's investment philosophy as well.
Update this for 2022 please
Hello, little question for anyone reading this: Does CPI or inflation really matter in countries that can borrow in their own currency since we switched to fiat money? It seems to me that the Fed responsibilities are outdated
What do you think now?
thanks for sharing, useful to me.
Thanks for sharing this amazing stuff!
Nailed-it...
Didn't turn out right, but still a great video.
That was nice but no recession in 2016 3Q it's now 4Q 2018 ISM 57.7
Anyone know where can I find the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index (CESI) data?
There are two, maybe more, options for the self-directed investor:
www.yardeni.com/pub/highfreqcb_bb.pdf >> See graph displayed on page 5 of pdf document
us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500/ >> Additional information (drop down menu) >> Download 'Earnings' spreadsheet >> It contains a tab with the Estimates & Surprises.
Hope it helps.
Thank you very much
Mike Maloney has some great tips on Wealth Cycles if any of you are interested as well. Measuring charts not in dollars and via other currencies and commodities is very interesting. As well, Jim Rogers speaks alot about commodities which might help you in your understanding on cycles. Good luck. Keep investing. :)
I was about the write the same thing. Mike has better charts and a he tells it better :) but still this is a good video.
Thanks for this, I like it
Cracking video.
Yellen has been surpressing volatility too right now. What is your take on this?
What is your view on Indian economy, will it face hyper inflation
The ISM appears to trail in a lot of these slides
I thought the same thing. How can you forecast using the ISM if it trails the indicator you're comparing it to?
The S&P500 actually predicts the ISM too, it's a loop.
20:50 "I am bearish on South Korea"
South Korean stock markets gained 20% since this video...
Doesn't mean he's wrong, bearish people are always early.
You are wrong if something rallies over you 20% no matter what.
depends on the time period. He mentioned that it is the trend, not perfect correlations. @@cy5806
So? It's the trend, like he mentioned, that is critical. The correlation will never be perfect..
@@JM-gu3txDECEMBER 2020 HERE, the trend is that SOUTH KOREA STOCK MARKET is at ALL TIME HIGHS. in a GLOBAL PANDEMIC. lol, that's a trend. i'm suuuuuuure it will crash soon though lol. lol
What about gold?