Lennar's most recent quarterly report showed that they had to utilize an average of 16.9% ($52000+) in buyer incentives in their Texas markets. I'm long on popcorn and lawn chairs.
Houses in the USA are 2x real value in most areas, and 3x real value in the usual super bubble areas. Houses do not cost any more to build than they did 10 years ago -- the extra price is all going to profit, a profit gouge. Anyone who bought since 2019 is in for a huge loss -- it's coming.
I don't know.. The inflation cost of supplies was quite high. The fed put rates at near ZERO. This created a buying spree and home refi spree during a shut down. Those that wanted to upgrade their homes struggled to fins contractors and supplies during this shut down. Things are finally getting back to normal. I think those that bought early may have lucked out with the 2.5% fixed 30 year loan.
The cost to build a house is definitely more than before: increase labor wages, increase tariff and local taxes on import raw material, and increase limitations to acquire land ownership from local municipalities and federal jurisdiction.
"Dampening price growth" is very literally point of higher rates. But it's a paradox because all the FED can do is hike rates but that actually makes homes more expensive on a monthly basis... but rate hikes are the only tool the FED has.. I do wonder if the FED is as surprised as I have been how resilient home prices have remained despite 7% mortgage rates. At least where I live nobody seems to care. Home prices are maybe flat but not really down and they sell in 10 days or less.
Sellers are trying to hold off, collectively waiting for rate cuts that will bring price increases. Might not work out for them when they all dump their inventory onto the market at the same “right” time
Has the portion of inventory that is new builds ever been this high before? That’s a factor that can be counted on to increase sales prices. More of the stuff that exists in the market is worth more cuz it’s new
The reason the end of 2022 was slow is that interest rates went from 3% to 8%, right? All sellers pulled to the beginning of year. Everyone knew to sell before Independence Day. -Curtis
The median house price makes sense I saw average price of a house in Charleston or Walterboro of South Carolina is 400,000. That the rich part of the state. I got my license from Georgia so I could work in any state.
Knowing real estate is hyper local, with prices increasing with high interest rates, it may be unwise to sit on the sidelines. If rates go down, prices will more than likely go up with increased demand. May be better to buy now and refinance later (if it makes financial sense for one’s budget). Absolutely Bonkers.
@@MavRick69those homeowners with VA, FHA and USDA with over interest rates of 7 and or who bought in late 2022 to now. Once rates drop to 6 and below They can easily refinance to 6 and below which will save them hundreds or thousands on monthly mortgage at almost to no cost. You don’t need equity to refinance to VA or fha streamline. That’s why it’s stupid to time the market.
@@MavRick69if you buy a house at 700k with rate of 7% and able to refi at 6 or below you’re easily saving $700 in monthly mortgage. If they’re smart I’ll use that money to pay my consumer debt if they have any or save it for a year use it for emergency savings and then if they’re comfortable and no need to use the money use it to pay it principal. Instead of 30 years pay it off in 15 years 😂
@@MavRick69those crashbros are trying to time the market especially in SoCal. Guess what we’re already up 25-30% from the peak of 2022. You need a 60% decrease in prices to even consider it as a crash 😂.
You say 32% are selling higher thn listing thn say 68% at or below..but you. Should separate that into 3 categories because even at listing price is a big deal
@tobyk5149 my apologies.. he mentions 32% of homes are selling for higher thn listing...thn says 68% are selling for asking price or below asking......he should be specific on the percentage of selling for below asking and selling at asking as well
Lennar's most recent quarterly report showed that they had to utilize an average of 16.9% ($52000+) in buyer incentives in their Texas markets. I'm long on popcorn and lawn chairs.
Lennars is paying $81,000 in rate buy downs in Florida and adding this to the asking price of the home.
Houses in the USA are 2x real value in most areas, and 3x real value in the usual super bubble areas. Houses do not cost any more to build than they did 10 years ago -- the extra price is all going to profit, a profit gouge. Anyone who bought since 2019 is in for a huge loss -- it's coming.
I don't know..
The inflation cost of supplies was quite high.
The fed put rates at near ZERO.
This created a buying spree and home refi spree during a shut down. Those that wanted to upgrade their homes struggled to fins contractors and supplies during this shut down. Things are finally getting back to normal.
I think those that bought early may have lucked out with the 2.5% fixed 30 year loan.
Houses do cost more to build now than 10yo. Permitting fees, labor, interest rates for builders, materials, etc
Everything cost more thn 10 yr ago...and its only a loss if you sell. ...
The cost to build a house is definitely more than before: increase labor wages, increase tariff and local taxes on import raw material, and increase limitations to acquire land ownership from local municipalities and federal jurisdiction.
So much bad math and made up stuff it isn’t worth trying here
"Dampening price growth" is very literally point of higher rates. But it's a paradox because all the FED can do is hike rates but that actually makes homes more expensive on a monthly basis... but rate hikes are the only tool the FED has.. I do wonder if the FED is as surprised as I have been how resilient home prices have remained despite 7% mortgage rates. At least where I live nobody seems to care. Home prices are maybe flat but not really down and they sell in 10 days or less.
Lag Effect
Inventory needs to skyrocket for prices start to go down. I don’t see that happening.
It's getting there
@@renelopez2244Only in some states. Not where prices are high, building is limited and expensive
It's not skyrocketing and more and more people are getting to that age were they hit the market
@Truebaconluver
I do think we will be back to Historic norms in regards to inventory.
I just don't know when
Check out inventory of Texas, Florida, Colorado.
All the numbers say prices should go down but sellers are holding strong on their prices. It's the feather effect. Quick to go up... Slow to fall.
Great analogy. That’s exactly what happened.
Yes, and they will hold until more inventory
Sellers are trying to hold off, collectively waiting for rate cuts that will bring price increases.
Might not work out for them when they all dump their inventory onto the market at the same “right” time
@@SigFigNewtongonna work out great
Mornin’ Jason
Good morning Mahalo 🤙🏽🌴
Good morning, Jason
Has the portion of inventory that is new builds ever been this high before?
That’s a factor that can be counted on to increase sales prices. More of the stuff that exists in the market is worth more cuz it’s new
Happy Sunday Jason, LETS GET NERDY!😂🤣😂
The data is misinterpreted and manipulated. Control for the right variables, and a crash is clear.
Good morning
Houses sitting and sitting in Charlotte, NC
prices in DC are crashing……🎉
Inventory is the lowest in the Midwest, but is it increasing?
The reason the end of 2022 was slow is that interest rates went from 3% to 8%, right? All sellers pulled to the beginning of year. Everyone knew to sell before Independence Day. -Curtis
Good morning from my $300,000 house in Texas.............
The median house price makes sense I saw average price of a house in Charleston or Walterboro of South Carolina is 400,000. That the rich part of the state. I got my license from Georgia so I could work in any state.
According to another UA-cam channel, all the data saying home prices are up is fake. Bonkers.
There's no proof the data is fake.
Knowing real estate is hyper local, with prices increasing with high interest rates, it may be unwise to sit on the sidelines. If rates go down, prices will more than likely go up with increased demand. May be better to buy now and refinance later (if it makes financial sense for one’s budget). Absolutely Bonkers.
@@MavRick69those homeowners with VA, FHA and USDA with over interest rates of 7 and or who bought in late 2022 to now. Once rates drop to 6 and below They can easily refinance to 6 and below which will save them hundreds or thousands on monthly mortgage at almost to no cost. You don’t need equity to refinance to VA or fha streamline. That’s why it’s stupid to time the market.
@@MavRick69if you buy a house at 700k with rate of 7% and able to refi at 6 or below you’re easily saving $700 in monthly mortgage. If they’re smart I’ll use that money to pay my consumer debt if they have any or save it for a year use it for emergency savings and then if they’re comfortable and no need to use the money use it to pay it principal. Instead of 30 years pay it off in 15 years 😂
@@MavRick69those crashbros are trying to time the market especially in SoCal. Guess what we’re already up 25-30% from the peak of 2022. You need a 60% decrease in prices to even consider it as a crash 😂.
You say 32% are selling higher thn listing thn say 68% at or below..but you. Should separate that into 3 categories because even at listing price is a big deal
@tobyk5149 my apologies.. he mentions 32% of homes are selling for higher thn listing...thn says 68% are selling for asking price or below asking......he should be specific on the percentage of selling for below asking and selling at asking as well
@@Truebaconluvernot all asking prices are high fyi. Maybe he should split that data up too.
Redfin doesn’t share the percent selling at asking. In other words, I’m not withholding that information.
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