Love the reasoning. You don't hate the player, just hate the value. So true. So many players i like, but will probably not end up drafting because, unless they really fall, I won't have a chance to get them.
The thing about being too obsessive with "value" is that if you only draft players that are falling, you will end up with a bunch of players nobody wants. Look at teams that do this in drafts and you will likely see a roster you hate. Also, you can't just blindly accept ADP as an accurate value for each player.
Yes and no. If you only draft one team and do this then that's more likely. I draft every day, and track ADP movement. So I know the ranges where players go, and I know who's trending up or down. So within that context, if I see a player later than I have in the 20 prior drafts, I know it's a good value. Also there's been research that shows clearly that teams that get more ADP value perform better overall. Knowing nothing else about their team. So don't just blindly take value, but always take value when you know there's no outside reason for the player to have fallen other than the people in your specific draft don't like them as much
@@teecee4459 It's not about being obsessed with value, it's about certain players that you feel are too highly valued. If you think that someone is too highly valued, you're not going to pick them. Not because you don't want them on your team, but because you'd rather pick them at 53 than 37, and they're going consistently before pick 45. He's not 'only drafting players that fall.' He just has certain players valued lower than ADP, and won't pick them unless they drop lower than their ADP, and into an acceptable range for their personal ranking. For the most part, people tend to agree on player value. There's generally only a few players for each person that they're very high, or very low on, and they're not all gonna be the same players.
I love how fantasy experts spent the whole spring talking about Marvin Harrison Jr as if he's the greatest wide receiver to ever play football and now they're shocked he's being drafted as the greatest wide receiver to ever come into football. 😂
It’s about adp value you can think someone will be great at fantasy but not better than people that go after him. People who actually play fantasy get understand that
youre so right on Harrison jr. and it sucks cuz i want him on some teams. but i cant justify taking a rookie WR over RBs that could have legendary seasons. i know RBs haven't been the best over the pas couple years but they still have the most upside.
Love the video Nick! Disagree on Kittle though…everyone said he was going to regress last year and he scored the same number of points, making up for fewer TDs with 1,000 yards. I get that the cost is a little high right now, but Purdy loves and trusts him. I think he’ll be great in best ball and he can win weeks by himself in redraft. If I’ve firmed up most of my other positions, I’ll grab him in round 6-7
Rare that I'm almost completely aligned, but I am. I do think Mixon going to arguably a better offense in a division with much worse defenses is going to return value at his ADP. No more Cle, Balt and Pitt defenses twice a year. Cincy's offense has been good, but was pretty average last year. Plus Hollins/Diggs/Dell/Schultz will keep defenses more committed to stopping the pass than Cincy's did in prior years since they never had a TE and their third WR was never as good as Dell. Bottom line I think Mixon has another year in the tank and on that offense I'm happy to make him my RB2...plus they have no one there to take any time from him so it's all he can eat in 2024.
I have Mixon as my RB2 on a Dynasty team that's on life support. Mixon struggled when met by defenders at the goal line last year. I'm hoping he pulls out another good season but not necessarily expecting it.
I give you Credit Nick. Every other analyst wont shutup about Harrison and Garrett Willson im already sick of hearing about these 2. I wont own any of these guys. When analyst wont shutup about a player they Always under perform like Bijan and Wilson last year.
You know what the "analysts" won't EVER talk about? How many leagues they've entered, what the buyins were, and what their win rate was after the season. Unless they're providing this transparency, they're not "analysts" to me.
The thing about Dj Moore is that he is peaking rn and sure Keenan looked great last year but he is at the back end. I think Dj easily replicates if not exceeds last year’s numbers given the offense way literally dead last in almost all passing statistics in the league.
There’s no way DJ replicates it. It’s all about shares. Moore will most likely get the highest share, but by how much? You have a QB that’s likely to throw a ton. Fields only threw 370 times last year, with 136 targets and 96 catches, 1364 YDs, 8 TDs, reasonably good for a WR1. But they had no one to throw to last year. This year you’ve got an entire team to split it. Kmet took about 90 targets last year too. So hypothetically, a reasonable amount of throws Caleb will have is probably closer to 550-700. Let’s say DJ gets 150 targets, Allen will probably have about 125-150, Odunze 125-150, Kmet about 100-125. That almost is 475-550 targets. Likely will have it thrown to other WRs and even Swift. Sure the target shares will be far better than last year but the chances DJ May has a less dominant share is higher because of the talent on the roster at this point. Allen was on track to be top 5 WR before the injury last year. Still finished top 8 with 5 less games. DJ’s likely to have some TD regression. I’d comfortably say yes he might replicate, but not exceed. 1100, 125/80-90 rec, 5TDs.
I am impressed with the way that you don't automatically dismiss a name, but explain why you're not drafting them. Like Lamar Jackson. Who wouldn't want to have Lamar Jackson on their team? But this is all about value. So you don't take an older quarterback on a team that just replaced the coach, with an injury history and issues throwing a medium range pass, when they are going rounds ahead of some guys that have upside and could equal or surpass Jackson's point totals. It's not about memorizing names, it's realizing how drafts might shift and present value as to how you will approach each draft. And that's intelligent.
Need advice about who are good picks when you get to middle to end of the draft in 10 man full PPR league and why you would take the player and who to avoid in this are of the draft. Thanks
basically zero chance DJ moore duplicates or beats any of his numbers last year, which were all career highs. hes going from a team that had no one to throw to but him, to a trio of WR to go along with a new RB that has pass catching as one of his best traits.
aiyuk had over 1300 yards last season btw (with deebo), londons best is 900 so far. im not saying the value is great for aiyuk but he def has upside (even just repeating what he already did is prob london’s upside)
I have to ask and I already know the answer to this question. Do you evaluate the coaching staff? Do you understand the philosophy of what the offense is designed to do..
Respectfully, your player takes are the best in the industry but redraft is an entirely different competition than best ball, and an lot of these fades feel redraft-centric (and sharp for redraft), but pretty out of touch or obsolete for best ball. You’re trying to best 11 people in redraft, not hundreds of thousands, or 550 in W17. Aiyuk for example I agree there’s not a path to be a top 5 WR but that’s not why he’s being drafted there, it’s for his elite weekly ceiling. Similar to your achane take on the running backs a few weeks back. It’s sacrificing advance rate for weekly ceiling
And I know this video covers redraft as well but your stream drafts are underdog and the sponsor is underdog. I think it’s worth decoupling your takes on the two because they’re pretty different
Let's say hypothetically it's the last round of the draft. If both Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert are still there, who would you rather have? (This is possible in my league because we cut the bench spots down to 5, so very few teams are drafting 2 qbs.)
Im at 41 percent mahomes i wanted ar 15 to be my most drafted qb this year but cant stop taking mahomes at about 30 percent richardson and herbert i take lots of herbert because i love taking my boy ladd
@@BethbutucancallmechandraI think the half a season for injuries is severely overexaggerated. With the exception of last year, Andrews has only missed a maximum of 2 games in any season, With the exception of the year Kittle broke his foot, he has only missed a maximum of 3 games in any season. I assume the injury concern is already accounted for in ADP because when they are both healthy for 80+% of the season, they have always been top a top 5 TEs in PPG and total points.
@@prestonvarner611 only WRs I ranked ahead of MHJ are: Hill A.J. Brown Jefferson Chase Nakua ARSB Evans Aiyuk Nico Collins Waddle and Olave get injured a bit too much for me to place them ahead of MHJ, plus Carr is a mediocre at best QB for Olave and Tua fades down the stretch. I like London but he isn’t as talented as MHJ. Adams is an elite WR but has mediocre at best QBs throwing to him.
I know there will be a disagreement but Alvin Kamara I’m not drafting unless his ADP changes. I just don’t see the upside with that offense. Maybe Jamal Williams and Keandre Miller suck but they will get used.
@@marcusdow5356 if he played all games last year he would've been like the #2 fantasy RB behind CMC lol. You should study up more before you try to debate football
@@cman5337 yea and I’d rather draft someone else but Andrews was better than Kincaid when healthy. He was basically better than Kelce, both were cool, Sam was the only guy killing it.
I'm way higher on Lawrence because of the Davis and BTJ additions and getting rid of Ridley. Ridley was awful, and Davis and BTJ should play much better to TLaw's strengths.
George Kittle? Travis Kelce is the tight end with the most 1,000 yard seasons at 7. Three others have 4 and five others have 3. Of those 9 players only one of them is currently playing. George Kittle. He has 3, thousand yard seasons and he averaged 15 yards a catch last year and he is 4 years younger than Kelce. I'm taking Kittle and I don't care what anyone else thinks.
Love Mark Andrews, total Haus as a player but despite building an impressive HOF resume, he has only had one Super Stud season for FF in 2021 that would justify being taken before the end/mid 4th round.
I can’t believe Andrew’s is on this list.. you should be talking about LaPorta opportunity cost. Goodness this was such a bad take, and I guarantee it ages very poorly
you cant put a career failed London ahead of MHJ...that is very scary for me...Nico I can see better...not Olave, Moore, Waddle....totally agree with Lamar and Andrews...Andrews has been biggest bust in fantasy last 2/3 years!!!
I wish you had an option to buy just the underdog rankings. I’m not much of an in season drafter as I am underdog. Unfortunately won’t be drafting this year unless you have an underdog package
Doesn’t feel right drafting Marvin?? Ehh feels pretty good to me getting the highest rated wr prospect in a long time. Also don’t understand how you can say the other prospects are the same. People have been raving about MHj for years now. Respectfully disagreeing there. Love the vids 🫶🏼
Yeah I'm questioning the fade of DJ in early 3rd, getting him as your 3rd WR seems way too good. His situation got better and they should be putting up a lot more points this year.
Love the reasoning. You don't hate the player, just hate the value. So true. So many players i like, but will probably not end up drafting because, unless they really fall, I won't have a chance to get them.
The thing about being too obsessive with "value" is that if you only draft players that are falling, you will end up with a bunch of players nobody wants. Look at teams that do this in drafts and you will likely see a roster you hate. Also, you can't just blindly accept ADP as an accurate value for each player.
Yes and no. If you only draft one team and do this then that's more likely. I draft every day, and track ADP movement. So I know the ranges where players go, and I know who's trending up or down. So within that context, if I see a player later than I have in the 20 prior drafts, I know it's a good value. Also there's been research that shows clearly that teams that get more ADP value perform better overall. Knowing nothing else about their team. So don't just blindly take value, but always take value when you know there's no outside reason for the player to have fallen other than the people in your specific draft don't like them as much
@@teecee4459 It's not about being obsessed with value, it's about certain players that you feel are too highly valued. If you think that someone is too highly valued, you're not going to pick them. Not because you don't want them on your team, but because you'd rather pick them at 53 than 37, and they're going consistently before pick 45. He's not 'only drafting players that fall.' He just has certain players valued lower than ADP, and won't pick them unless they drop lower than their ADP, and into an acceptable range for their personal ranking. For the most part, people tend to agree on player value. There's generally only a few players for each person that they're very high, or very low on, and they're not all gonna be the same players.
Love these early morning videos. Keep’m comin boss!
I love how fantasy experts spent the whole spring talking about Marvin Harrison Jr as if he's the greatest wide receiver to ever play football and now they're shocked he's being drafted as the greatest wide receiver to ever come into football. 😂
It’s about adp value you can think someone will be great at fantasy but not better than people that go after him. People who actually play fantasy get understand that
but he should be a top 10..there are are many players better...
So true. They convince people to draft these players and when the adps go up, “whoa, what are people thinking?!” 😂
youre so right on Harrison jr. and it sucks cuz i want him on some teams. but i cant justify taking a rookie WR over RBs that could have legendary seasons. i know RBs haven't been the best over the pas couple years but they still have the most upside.
Love the video Nick! Disagree on Kittle though…everyone said he was going to regress last year and he scored the same number of points, making up for fewer TDs with 1,000 yards. I get that the cost is a little high right now, but Purdy loves and trusts him. I think he’ll be great in best ball and he can win weeks by himself in redraft. If I’ve firmed up most of my other positions, I’ll grab him in round 6-7
Completely agree on those first three WRs, I havent drafted them once either
The value on Dak, Tua, Love, and Goff is just too much for me to take a qb early.
Rare that I'm almost completely aligned, but I am. I do think Mixon going to arguably a better offense in a division with much worse defenses is going to return value at his ADP. No more Cle, Balt and Pitt defenses twice a year. Cincy's offense has been good, but was pretty average last year. Plus Hollins/Diggs/Dell/Schultz will keep defenses more committed to stopping the pass than Cincy's did in prior years since they never had a TE and their third WR was never as good as Dell. Bottom line I think Mixon has another year in the tank and on that offense I'm happy to make him my RB2...plus they have no one there to take any time from him so it's all he can eat in 2024.
I have Mixon as my RB2 on a Dynasty team that's on life support. Mixon struggled when met by defenders at the goal line last year. I'm hoping he pulls out another good season but not necessarily expecting it.
I give you Credit Nick. Every other analyst wont shutup about Harrison and Garrett Willson im already sick of hearing about these 2. I wont own any of these guys. When analyst wont shutup about a player they Always under perform like Bijan and Wilson last year.
You think anyone could’ve predicted injuries?
You know what the "analysts" won't EVER talk about? How many leagues they've entered, what the buyins were, and what their win rate was after the season. Unless they're providing this transparency, they're not "analysts" to me.
Wilson lost his QB 4 plays into the season. Can’t really predict that
Facts cman Harrison is a rookie , but this could potentially be the first year that Garrett Wilson doesn’t have a high school quarterback
Could definitely see Harrison sneaking into the first round by late summer
The thing about Dj Moore is that he is peaking rn and sure Keenan looked great last year but he is at the back end. I think Dj easily replicates if not exceeds last year’s numbers given the offense way literally dead last in almost all passing statistics in the league.
There’s no way DJ replicates it. It’s all about shares. Moore will most likely get the highest share, but by how much? You have a QB that’s likely to throw a ton. Fields only threw 370 times last year, with 136 targets and 96 catches, 1364 YDs, 8 TDs, reasonably good for a WR1. But they had no one to throw to last year.
This year you’ve got an entire team to split it. Kmet took about 90 targets last year too. So hypothetically, a reasonable amount of throws Caleb will have is probably closer to 550-700. Let’s say DJ gets 150 targets, Allen will probably have about 125-150, Odunze 125-150, Kmet about 100-125. That almost is 475-550 targets. Likely will have it thrown to other WRs and even Swift. Sure the target shares will be far better than last year but the chances DJ May has a less dominant share is higher because of the talent on the roster at this point. Allen was on track to be top 5 WR before the injury last year. Still finished top 8 with 5 less games. DJ’s likely to have some TD regression. I’d comfortably say yes he might replicate, but not exceed.
1100, 125/80-90 rec, 5TDs.
I am impressed with the way that you don't automatically dismiss a name, but explain why you're not drafting them. Like Lamar Jackson. Who wouldn't want to have Lamar Jackson on their team? But this is all about value. So you don't take an older quarterback on a team that just replaced the coach, with an injury history and issues throwing a medium range pass, when they are going rounds ahead of some guys that have upside and could equal or surpass Jackson's point totals. It's not about memorizing names, it's realizing how drafts might shift and present value as to how you will approach each draft. And that's intelligent.
Once Texans quit on Pierce, singletary ate tremendously and he’s a smaller less capable back. Game script, improved O-Line, Mixon has RB1 potential
Need advice about who are good picks when you get to middle to end of the draft in 10 man full PPR league and why you would take the player and who to avoid in this are of the draft. Thanks
I’m not fading Moore , Caleb might be his best qb so far in his career . Also it helps that Evan Silva likes him a lot too
basically zero chance DJ moore duplicates or beats any of his numbers last year, which were all career highs. hes going from a team that had no one to throw to but him, to a trio of WR to go along with a new RB that has pass catching as one of his best traits.
I agree with you being above market on kyler but below on marv. How do you navigate getting kyler unstacked in underdog?
How are you not in on Kittle? Lol. He's the best value of the "elite" TEs and you can grab Bowers as back up
aiyuk had over 1300 yards last season btw (with deebo), londons best is 900 so far. im not saying the value is great for aiyuk but he def has upside (even just repeating what he already did is prob london’s upside)
disgruntled players = ehhh
Who were londons former QBs??? This is a half baked take.
Solid advice always! Thanks Nick 🎉
I have to ask and I already know the answer to this question. Do you evaluate the coaching staff? Do you understand the philosophy of what the offense is designed to do..
Respectfully, your player takes are the best in the industry but redraft is an entirely different competition than best ball, and an lot of these fades feel redraft-centric (and sharp for redraft), but pretty out of touch or obsolete for best ball. You’re trying to best 11 people in redraft, not hundreds of thousands, or 550 in W17. Aiyuk for example I agree there’s not a path to be a top 5 WR but that’s not why he’s being drafted there, it’s for his elite weekly ceiling. Similar to your achane take on the running backs a few weeks back. It’s sacrificing advance rate for weekly ceiling
And I know this video covers redraft as well but your stream drafts are underdog and the sponsor is underdog. I think it’s worth decoupling your takes on the two because they’re pretty different
Moore will crush it again
I am a Buckeye fan and MHJr is great but he's ranked at a best case scenario..there's no value unless he falls a bit
ive gotten aiyuk mid to end of rd 3 4x already in my 9 redrafts, PPR, 2 Flex..wilson/olave/aiyuk..yes you can have your cake and eat it too :)
Let's say hypothetically it's the last round of the draft. If both Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert are still there, who would you rather have?
(This is possible in my league because we cut the bench spots down to 5, so very few teams are drafting 2 qbs.)
Then neither. Use the bench spot for a WR or RB and stream the QB
Assuming this is your first QB I'd say Herbert. Assuming it's your backup I'd say neither
Should have been more clear. Yes, this would be my first and only QB selected.
Im assuming kittle will rise if brendon aiyuk is traded?
Lamar is so tough. There's going to be so many games where he ends up in the 11-14 point range in a blowout victory
Im at 41 percent mahomes i wanted ar 15 to be my most drafted qb this year but cant stop taking mahomes at about 30 percent richardson and herbert i take lots of herbert because i love taking my boy ladd
I never draft kittle or andrews if i want early round te i want to make 2 te build on underdog cant do that with kittle or andrews
Uh yeah u can I've done it with andrews lmao
@@austinyoung8946 4 years ago before he started missing half of games every year?
@@BethbutucancallmechandraI think the half a season for injuries is severely overexaggerated.
With the exception of last year, Andrews has only missed a maximum of 2 games in any season,
With the exception of the year Kittle broke his foot, he has only missed a maximum of 3 games in any season.
I assume the injury concern is already accounted for in ADP because when they are both healthy for 80+% of the season, they have always been top a top 5 TEs in PPG and total points.
We do this every year with DJ Moore lol. He’s gonna be just fine.
dont like chi and hou Wrs at all..agree 100% on that moore take
Not considering the fact the Texans threw so much because neither It their below average backs could get it done from anywhere on the field
Mixon isn’t good either. He’s just volume
@@JS-it3dx Mixon is an every year top 15 RB but he’s not good
MHJ is a better pick than Olave, who was inconsistent last season and Adams, who has a bottom tier starting QB throwing to him.
sure he may be a better pick. but he is not going to be hugely better than any of those tier 2 WRs you can get later in the draft.
@@prestonvarner611 we don’t know that yet but he has incredible potential to be elite.
@@ref233 we know MHJ is not going to significantly outperform olave. Adams. Waddle. Aiyuk. Etc etc. he is not outperforming 7-9 other awesome WRs.
@@prestonvarner611 only WRs I ranked ahead of MHJ are:
Hill
A.J. Brown
Jefferson
Chase
Nakua
ARSB
Evans
Aiyuk
Nico Collins
Waddle and Olave get injured a bit too much for me to place them ahead of MHJ, plus Carr is a mediocre at best QB for Olave and Tua fades down the stretch. I like London but he isn’t as talented as MHJ. Adams is an elite WR but has mediocre at best QBs throwing to him.
@@ref233 this is perfect. You can get Nico. Aiyuk. Evans. Later than MHJ. So that’s all nick is saying. The value on mhj is not great.
Tight end video next nick 🙏
LMAO! Listening to you was like looking inside my brain! Scary shit dude lol
I know there will be a disagreement but Alvin Kamara I’m not drafting unless his ADP changes. I just don’t see the upside with that offense. Maybe Jamal Williams and Keandre Miller suck but they will get used.
Williams got absolutely no burn last year lol
@@ItsLud_ you mean Miller. Jamal got over 100 carries. This offense is bad.
Kamara gets over 100 targets in the passing game....... he's a PPR machine
@@maskedhoodie6255 that was like 4 years ago. He ain’t that guy anymore. If he was he would be a steal at this adp. The man has lost a step.
@@marcusdow5356 if he played all games last year he would've been like the #2 fantasy RB behind CMC lol. You should study up more before you try to debate football
Think I’m in a slow draft with you on underdog rn lol. My names gouldylochs on there
As "Spock" would say ,"“There is a certain scientific logic about it.” You my friend seem to possess the common sense that it takes to draft !
How is Andrew’s going so late? Kincaid is already expensive af
Dudes been a dud last 2+ years
@@cman5337 yea and I’d rather draft someone else but Andrews was better than Kincaid when healthy. He was basically better than Kelce, both were cool, Sam was the only guy killing it.
I understand all of these but Nixon not hitting for me
We need rankings
I'm way higher on Lawrence because of the Davis and BTJ additions and getting rid of Ridley. Ridley was awful, and Davis and BTJ should play much better to TLaw's strengths.
No regerts
Wish you.d dabble in a bit of dynasty my man
George Kittle? Travis Kelce is the tight end with the most 1,000 yard seasons at 7. Three others have 4 and five others have 3. Of those 9 players only one of them is currently playing. George Kittle. He has 3, thousand yard seasons and he averaged 15 yards a catch last year and he is 4 years younger than Kelce. I'm taking Kittle and I don't care what anyone else thinks.
kittle blows during playoff time (fantasy)
Fading Moore is not a good move. 0/30??? Cmon now
McBride over Andrews? 😮😮😮😮
💯
Duh
Love Mark Andrews, total Haus as a player but despite building an impressive HOF resume, he has only had one Super Stud season for FF in 2021 that would justify being taken before the end/mid 4th round.
I can’t believe Andrew’s is on this list.. you should be talking about LaPorta opportunity cost. Goodness this was such a bad take, and I guarantee it ages very poorly
you cant put a career failed London ahead of MHJ...that is very scary for me...Nico I can see better...not Olave, Moore, Waddle....totally agree with Lamar and Andrews...Andrews has been biggest bust in fantasy last 2/3 years!!!
I wish you had an option to buy just the underdog rankings. I’m not much of an in season drafter as I am underdog. Unfortunately won’t be drafting this year unless you have an underdog package
You can buy just underdog. Go to Accounts then memberships and you’ll see 2024 Underdog Package
Doesn’t feel right drafting Marvin?? Ehh feels pretty good to me getting the highest rated wr prospect in a long time. Also don’t understand how you can say the other prospects are the same. People have been raving about MHj for years now.
Respectfully disagreeing there. Love the vids 🫶🏼
The same as in their projection for this season. MHJ is a much better overall prospect, but this isn't a dynasty video
yeah Harrison Jr good mid 2nd rd value..maybe even early 2nd..AZ defense horrid and its McBride and no one else
@@ShadMarshall unless the line is horrid. I don’t see how that trio in AZ doesn’t have a good year
Dude MHJ is going to feast. This is the only year you’re going to be able to get him in 2nd Ed cuz he’s going 1st round next year
I start selecting recievers In round 5 there's still a lot of #1 guys there I need my running backs
Yikes
That’s crazy, but to each their own
Cool need people like you just selflessly donating to the league pot
I don’t draft RBs until round 7 ! I’ll have a QB, TE and WRs first.
@@raesmart3305 if ur on underdog u have to if u want to win
"Adams had been a top 5 WR most seasons of his career" He's only done it 4 out of 10 years
0 djm drafted is crazy work
If you’re not drafting dj Moore or MHJ you’re Going to lose. That’s just a fact. It’s not good to fade
Yeah I'm questioning the fade of DJ in early 3rd, getting him as your 3rd WR seems way too good. His situation got better and they should be putting up a lot more points this year.