Vanguard Thinks This Will Happen to the Stock Market
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- Опубліковано 4 чер 2024
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References:
Vanguard Report for 2024:www.vanguard.co.uk/content/da...
Vanguard Report for 2014: static.fmgsuite.com/media/doc...
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It's all rubbish. The only thing economists are good at is telling you tomorrow why what they predicted for today didn't happen.
And get paid for the exsplaination for « why», the prediction did not happen 😂.
Finance is the only « science», where 99% of the modells are useless. But the expert gets doubble/tripple or 100-1000X more money than in other fields.
And the irony is that the investors who often are smart people in their own craft, send their money to these con artists
I almost became an economist, but it was very clear that the expectation was to tell people what the establishment wanted the people to think rather than what I actually thought.
@@Ikaros23 Lol, and economists hired by public for-profit companies. Give me a break 😆
UA-cam is full of misinformation
UA-cam still full of misinformation
As much as I love Jack Bogle and appreciate the Vanguard Group, it just shows you that no matter how well informed anyone is, no one knows what the markets will do!
And thats what jack bogle always said. Nobody and i do mean nobody can predict the market. So we index
As said in another comment, Jack Bogle shared this same sentiment about predicting and timing the markets.
NO NO NO.. folks say you can't time the market. What they mean to say is they can't time the market. It is difficult. It takes years of practice. So I am going to tell you exactly how this is all going to go down... with some rough timing. Markets will continue to go up until the Fed Pivots and the yield curve reinverts. Once that happens we will crash by at least 50%. The bear market is going to last for years. If you are a swing trader of investor. When the FED Pivots that is your signal to get out of all your longs. If you are brave and have money you short right then and there. Until then we stay long. Once the VIX spikes above 75.. we get out of our shorts and go long again. We must realize that after the crash we will most likely go sidways for years... I think up to 7 years. It will be known as one of the lost decades.
@@bpb5541 awesome! Which numbers to play for the lottery?
@@bpb5541 Read the room pal.
Here’s my take!
1)I prefer brunettes to bonds
2) my money is safer is the stock market than it is in my bank account where I’m tempted to spend it or where inflation will erode it.
3) I only own a SIPP which means I can’t access my investments till 25 years time.
4) we need a loss or slow decade so we can buy shares at a cheap price.
5) I allocate 20% of my portfolio to dividend paying companies which tend to have lower volatility and for psychological purposes.
6) I believe that good quality companies will continue to grow and do well as the world becomes more globalised and population increase.
7) Great video Toby!!!
Did you say as population increases, youre a very funny guy, i will tell bill gates you are expecting an increase in carbon
Pal the first rule of investing is to weigh upside and downside risk. Gold is the safest investment and U.S. stocks are the most risky.
@@parkerbohnnI totally agree.
The most riskiest place for my money is the bank.
Inflation will erode it.
I’m tempted to spend it.
This is a personal take. I’m not a fan of gold anymore but I used to be an avid gold stacker. Loved my 1oz Britannias,
the world is not globalising anymore, we are sliding to a cold war era block system West vs. the rest of the world.
Very much mistaken, the world is actually de globalising , you should reconsider everything you said here
i feel like all experts have their own agendas and self intrests
Always important to consider this for sure 👍
A case of "I can see the brokers yachts, but where are their clients yachts?"
It's all speculation right... the more money that "speculates" in a certain direction is just attempting to influence for their own gain.
I feel like grass is green.
So…saving with a 5% return in an environment where inflation is running between 5 - 7% YoY is a valid option according to Vanguard? What am I missing here?
That was really good grabbing the 2014 report. Shows that it’s all a bunch of educated guesswork. With an emphasis on guesswork.
Or legal manipulation. I think you would be better off doing the opposite of what most bankers suggest you do. Buy when they say sell and sell when they say buy. Watch what they do not what they say.
PRINT MONEY = VALUES INCREASE = aint rocket science kid
Vanguard and other big players have predicted that Emerging Markets would beat the US stock market based on valuations, but have been wrong for many years. "Nobody knows nothing !" - as told to Jack Bogle by a broker's assistant.
The market trend can turn around very quickly. In fact, the indexes often switch from a bear market to a bull market when the news is at its worst and the mood of investors is at its lowest point. I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?
In particular, amid inflation, investors should exercise caution when it comes to their exposure and new purchases. It is only feasible to get such high yields during a recession with the guidance of a qualified specialist or reliable counsel.
True, initially I wasn't quite impressed with my gains, opposed to my previous performances, I was doing so badly, figured I needed to diverssify into better assets, I touched base with a portfolio-advisor and that same year, I pulled a net gain of 550k...that's like 7times more than I average on my own.
This aligns perfectly with my desire to organize my finances prior to retirement. Could you provide me with access to your advisor?
Just research the name Angela Lynn Schilling. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Every year they say the market will crash, even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
the yield curve has been flipped for 2 years, and nobody in the USA can afford a new house. There is some shtt to hit the fan. But biden doesn't want any crashed before hes out of office, so hes called up powell and told him keep pumping and printing.
When you start to defend your position that's when you've lost your objectivity and you should really close position.
Have you actually watched the video? Vanguard predicts a normalisation of the markets. Nothing at all about a crash...
@@Pihlalorjoone Yes I did watch the video, the point I was making; the report that vanguard published was on the bear side, I think this was to cover thier arse should the market go down.
No one knows what is going to happen to the market over the next 10 years , even the best asset managers don't know.
I can predict the weather by saying its going to rain.....eventually I will be correct...some people would then say wow I did not know you could predict the weather.....
I have a digital watch. You sure about that?
Before you presented the 2014 report, I was thinking “but what did they predict last time?”
Safe to say, you can’t go far wrong if you just index and chill…
Great minds think alike :P
Generally true but "can't go far wrong" and "safe to say" is very naive and dangerous, markets can and have had downturns, generally true in the long run however but don't be so sure , it's a game of probability
@@kippsguitar6539 It’s not “very naive”. Of course markets have downturns, but the data has been run. The results are in. Over the long term, the stock market has proven itself to be an excellent inflation-beating investment. Of course there’s no guarantees, and past performance might not match future results. But “very naive”? Don’t be so silly
awesome conclusion, thank you!
Great content!
I've listened to a plethora of so called expert financial gurus... I like your approach and honest talk!!!
Very useful Toby 👍🏻. Basically, you would be better off just asking a taxi driver 😂
You’d probably have a better conversation 😂
PRINT MONEY = VALUES INCREASE = aint rocket science kid
Thank you for your report.
Excellent video and appreciate the historical context
Great video! I am glad you dug up the predictions from the past as a data point to look at. Makes me a bit less unsettled!
Thanks. I feel your retrospective analysis is very sensible and well grounded.
Thank you for this excellent and informative video! Well done!
Fantastic video Toby
Great info from Toby as usual. Thank you
PRINT MONEY = VALUES INCREASE = aint rocket science kid
Thank you! Very nice video
Thank you too!
Great video. Very measured. Thanks.
Great job 😊
Great video, I love your balanced view
It’s exceptionally difficult to predict market behaviour. That’s why the Permanent Portfolio is the way to go, at least if you’ve an older/retired investor.
I don’t care if you’re Jimmy Buffet or Warren Buffet nobody , I repeat NOBODY! Knows if the market is going up, down or sideways 😂😂😂
I would disagree, market makers control the market or at least the stocks they have interest in. They 100% know and control what certain stocks do
@@zach8143 I concur...
Markets to a certain extent are definitely controlled.
Loved this vid. Esp when you checked out 2014 report. Thanks!
The parable at the end was worth the wait 😂👍
:)
Smashing video cheers
A wise german once said: forecasts are difficult, especially when its about the future😂
Good info presented in a good way. You earned a new subscriber here.
You get 4 or 5% but the inflation is that much, you do not come out ahead.
But 4 or 5% better than if you stuff it under the mattress.
Inflation in the U.S. is down to about 3.6%. So you’re coming out slightly ahead. Better than not investing it.
Good advice!
So ultimately, Index & Chill :)
What would give you that idea... :P
Absolutely, just opened another ETF position today 🎉
Stay long until the Fed Pivots... then that is your signal to get out of your longs and go max short. If you believe markets only go up and are a lazy set it and forget it 401k / Roth investor I fear for you. Markets go down. Bubble pop and the economic and buisness cycle is still very much alive. Where do we think we are at in that cycle? I certainly don't think we have another 15 years of expansion. The fake money that the government used that caused it... has run out. They can print... but if they do we get hyperinfation or worse stagflation. They will be in no position to save anyone .... they will be more concerned with saving themselves... which I think is very much at risk. Espeically if Trump gets reelected because he will just give out tax cuts for all and cause inflation to get even worse. At some point everything is too expensive and folks stop buying.. in a debt based system that would cause a crash. It's coming nothing can stop it now.. but certain things could make it worse.
"Chill" is the difficult part due to the constant bombardment of info by the financial media urging investors to trade.
Where did you get your stock screener and watch which is on your wall?
Solid advice as always 💪🏻
Cheers buddy!!
Loved style of video - easy to listen to - well done. Always feel gains should be stated after inflation and tax to really understand the significance.
Thumbs up from across the pond!
Found your channel recently and really appreciate your content 👍Keep it up!
Welcome aboard!
Is really good. Love the way it is all delivered!
Why do creators always seem to respond to the bots?
@@slayerrocks2 how do you know they are bots? The username?
The only bots I see I block as soon as I can who spam comments etc
@@TobyNewbatt Generic comments.
Never any specific reference to the content.
Great video!
Thanks!
Good job! Awesome work 🎉🎉🎉🎉
Thank you! Cheers!
Excellent analysis
What a fantastic video!
Thank u 😊
Well said.
Toby, always a pleasure to watch your videos. Very informative.
:)
Glad i watched to the end .. good story :-)
did the 2014 report show the graph with valuation percentile? be curios to see if they deemed stocks back then fair value or stretched
Weird that they think UK stock valuations are stretched. Interesting video, Toby. And great idea to look at the past report!
FYI, I subscribed as soon as I noticed your T-shirt. 👏👏👏
Diversification is key. When one falls the other goes up.
Love a crash me as I sweep up those lovely stocks which come bouncing back 2 years later.
Only one thing is predictable...nobody is able to predict macro.
PRINT MONEY = VALUES INCREASE = aint rocket science kid
Great video again. I have a question for you. Is it better to invest the full £20k ISA on the first day in April “early bird investing” or monthly instalments? Worth a thought I guess. Thanks
I agree, Toby. My plan is keep moving from IB01 to VWRA each month and perhaps hit the 60/40 in a couple of years.
Good point checking the 2014 report. Well done ✔️
Interest rates have a direct correlation with the amount of US Treasury bonds issued, the maturity of the bonds and the demand of those bonds issued.
Hi Toby. Loving your shirt!
@Toby-newhi Toby. That looks like a non UK no .. ?
Reminds me of this cartoon called Bloom County. One of the main character’s punishment was being locked in his room with 10 economists trying to predict the future of the economy with 10 different results
Is that CAGR number for 2014-2024 adjusted for inflation? How much better than the expectation of 5-8% did the stock market do in real terms?
Mr.Martket is unpredictable, thats the BEAUTY of it.
Excellent.
Wouldn’t large cap stocks be more advantageous in terms of returns if they are the ones who don’t need loans at higher rates?
Index and chill mate. 100% equity, only debt is your house and invest in your self and a sustainable business
That’s exactly my plan. We have a wide portfolio in index funds and the only debt we have is our mortgage. 🎉🎉
One thing's for sure, stocks have less and less to do with investment in companies and more to do with money shuffling. An old rule of thumb was if the prime rate is above 3.5%, stocks go down and bonds and money markets go up.
Vanguard Wellington Admiral is a good core holding...say 60%
You can spice it up with a bit of BTC 20% and Gold 20%.
stonks always go up, thats it. thats the play.
Interest rates will have to go to zero because the US can't afford to pay the interest related to higher rates with the debt we have.
If they go back to zero interest rate policy America will end up a basket case like Japan who ran zero interest rates for 30 years.
But the government needs to keep the rate high to attract debt buyers.
Great take-away.
Great idea checking 2014. It sounds like this is an overcomplicated way of justifying a prediction based on reversion to the mean. But, US valuations are moving away from the mean for concrete, rational reasons. Those reasons are likely to continue for some time.
As always! Many thanks for your time putting this together. You make it so easily digestable🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
At 78 I keep wondering what my long term is?
We would expect a firm like Vanguard to be conservative. Like you said: long term consistency and low fees.
I think that’s got to be the main driver. They stay pretty cautious and that’s fair enough.
LOL "we estimate 50% likelihood ..." is like saying - it may return more, or it may return less than 5%. Great analysis Vanguard! You've earned your keep.
Hey @Toby! Are the projected returns adjusted by inflation (real) or nominal?
Depends what part of the report. Some are nominal some are real
Nobody knows what will happen but it's fun to guess and based on information known now, I think the Vanguard outlook has merit in my view. For example, out performance of large caps over small caps is something that happens over periods and vice versa, currently small caps show value and opportunity to outperform. Vanguard's own global corporate bond fund has not yet recovered all of its 2022 fall, so upside in bonds is possible especially if US interest rates come down a bit. Emerging markets are still lower than pre covid so upside potential perhaps. Let's see.
Like to stay vested but always hold back some significant dry powder for corrections and bear markets
Seeing as the 4% rule is a safe bet over a 30 year period that’s what the go for because it’s probably not gonna go below that over a 10 year period and if it goes above that no one will complain about the over performance of the prediction.
I think a lot of these forecasts are to manage expectations. Investors behaviour being the biggest cause of poor investment performance.
So when rates are low, markets struggle. When rates are high, markets struggle. You sell all your stock and the big guys hoover them up. Great research Vanguaard.
Honestly, being a CFA or analyst seems like money for old rope to me
Great video Toby!
I think given how so many factors play into this good v bad we’ll toughly perform the same just keep calm and carry on
Thank you! I have been screaming this at people for 20 years! I am so glad someone finally made a video about this. They very rarely ever get the forward guidance right. That is industry wide and they all get it wrong all the time
Good episode. If prediction tells you that likelihood of something to happen is 50%(like that Vanguard report from 2014), then it is no longer a prediction. Coin flip would be equaly valuable in predicting the future.
Everyone just guesses. Those who guess correct are called experts. I'm with you, global stocks etfs and enjoy the long term ride.
Chase bank has a 5.1% saving rate too, I have read.
Toby, do you think you'll chnsge your portfolio slightly? Will you decrease your US stocks and invest more global stocks & bonds? Thanks.
I’m well diversified across the world and I like to just keep it to market cap weights mostly! 👍. I do have some stock picks too for fun
VT and chill?
@@kcamfork For my US audience, absolutely :P - maybe I need to get some of those t shirts made :)
Does anyone have any information on the stock ticker/display behind Toby in his videos? I am keen for something similar albeit to perhaps show a stock heat map.
I note that Joseph Davis, Global Chief Economist, Roger Aliaga-Diaz, Senior Economist, Andrew Patterson and Qian Wang were all involved in writing both the 2014 and 2024 Vanguard reports. All I can say is that world markets certainly outperformed their predictions! I guess this is why fund managers rarely beat the market...
By the way, if Vanguard are looking to produce a report in future that is no less accurate, but less expensive, I'm sure that my fees would be less than those 4 combined!
Surely, their models improve over time?
Good job - few and far between.
11:58, Under promise over deliver. Since 2014, how was Bitcoin?
Great video
Thanks!
A,though I agree interest rates will remain high(er) most central banks have an inflatarget to meet. If they go below that, are they not obligated to lower rates further? I think insisting on rates remaining high might also be unpredictable.
I still agree with ABA . Anything but bonds. Dont see fiscal irresponsibility reversing. Growing debt loads means larger supply of bonds to sevice it, but i think the same doubt that caused them to have trouble in the last 5-10 years remain
Thanks Toby, so i believe the safer option is ETFs
Interest rates should be higher. However the question I never hear when economist talk about higher rates is, can governments afford higher rates? I don't think inflation in the US or Canada is going away because without inflation the only option for the governments there is default.
Slightly higher inflation makes corporate sales increases, stock valuation higher. If there is no big crisis, but then what do I know.
Well I definitely agree about bonds making a come back. They havnr been this low or pushed down year after year like this in forever. They are bound to rebound and issue good returns at some point. I've been buying BND and TLT in preparation of the recovery over the past 3 months.
The desire for certainty is so terribly alluring ....You give a great conclusion Toby. Less crystal balls and more responsive reactions.
We want simple answers to complex and unknowable futures. And that will never change 😎
It think stock prices have come down already, a lot! Think about the high inflation we have already had, while, in the same time frame, stock prices haven't increased as much. So inflation already corrected the stock market quite significantly last 3 years.
By a very strange coincidence only today I have been checking out World ex USA ETF’s with the thought that if I have a S&P 500 ETF together with a World ex-USA ETF I can move funds between them as the market performs. There aren’t that many ex USA funds but I have found a few. Maybe I should look at bond ETF’s too.
You have just explained how the Fed policy of low interest rates was always wrong. It has skewed the stock market, shafted savers, and encouraged shafters in general.
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in the last 3rd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?