Thanks for the boost in confidence, i didn't stop grinding through all my anxiety (idk how), i knew it was all over hyped, but my low self esteem made me think anything can replace me, but now that the hype is dying a bit, plus this video and a few others, finally i don't have to allocate so much mental effort into suppressing my anxiety
Low self esteem can be a definite harbinger of useless shame, which you must fight off in order to continue learning and performing Computation at a career-sustaining level. However, I have to assume that in over a year you must now see the fundamentally-groundbreaking improvements in reason, speed, and overall capability that have been made to these models. That's not your low self-esteem playing tricks on you - that's just the truth. Even while working in the AI field myself at the beginning of 2023 (in an academic setting, which I admit makes it far easier to keep my job) I too was aware of the threat to my coding skillset. It was clear to me then as I used GPT-3, and it's now clear to everyone else using Claude-3 and GPT-4o that their continued advancement will make purely human-written line-by-line coding WITHOUT an AI-model completely obsolete. I am not aware of a single mind in the history of digital computation whose highest-accolades in programming could not have been achieved (at the very least) at a faster rate with the use of an LLM at least on par with GPT-4. I don't want to scare you out of the field, by any means. Just the opposite, in fact. Reading your comment about 'confidence' and 'self-esteem' and 'anxiety' in relation to assessing the impact of this impending technological change struck a disconcerting chord with me. Simply because your response to this video, using it as a 4 minute reassurance of your wavering faith in the software labor-market, was inherently flawed - I saw an incorrect technological and societal judgement that I think you only made because of that very same negative attitude you were trying to escape. In more direct terms: While a negative mindset could indeed make you ignore the reassuring facts in this video you already believed about AI (like what you said about there being unbelievable hype, or that any AI model to this day requires a "human-in-the-loop" to function), it is equally true that the facts you choose to remain blind to in order to preserve your inner-peace can be just as harmful if ignored. So you basically chose to put your mental-stability in the hands of one SWE's singular opinion whose view of AI is inherently biased as a career-programmer, and who did not put the necessary effort to predict the actual trends in the deployment of transformer-based llm models over the past year. Regardless of why @bigboxSWE did not make accurate predictions about the following trends and potentials in AI: 1. AI's increase in the global-increase of programming-capability and programming-efficiency 2. The upper-bounds of programming ability that were possible to achieve in just an additional year of closed and open-source AI model development 3. The massive blow to the software labor-force (AI was directly responsible for the vast majority of layoffs with the greatest layoffs being recorded just in 2024) in terms of quantity. Watch/read anything about these layoffs and it becomes clear that companies are, in fact, feeding their proprietary data/code-bases to create products and solve problems quickly and cheaply. And even if this isn't a direct strategy, the internal and external competition inherent to the labor force means ALL companies either get-ahead or fall-behind due to the ever-increasing employment of AI. This discussion was quite publicly debated constantly until it became the silent-norm. 4. The massive and viral potential for models other than chat-gpt that were, even at the time, quickly becoming prepackaged in the development ecosystems used by so many programmers (co-pilot at the time being quite widely used in Apr 2023, just 2 months after release). 5. The potential for revolutionarily simple, yet profound LLM-based architectures and solutions. These can still be built on sophisticated and preexisting AI-backends, but only need to introduce computationally lightweight wrappers and interfaces, or domain-specific training data that is well-curated and niche enough to create useful and novel behaviors in an LLM, or even just plain-english 'jailbreak' methods to wrangle the behavior of the most expensive super-computers known to man. Summarize that previous example out loud if you haven't yet: Not only do you have the ability to talk to a supercomputer in most any human language, but you can use plain, intuitive english to literally hack its intended behavior! In fact the reverse-engineering that revealed Chat-GPT's initially-supplied prompts was also done in the most revolutionary programming language to-date: English! So the hype was real, my man, even in Apr/May of last year, and you were actually already on the right path to understanding and taking advantage of these trends before ever seeing this video. That anxiety you described was not at all misplaced. You could see, feel, and hear which way the wind was blowing, but blew your intuition off because it felt easier in the short term. Am I being dramatic? Yes. But even as a 25 year-old positioned cozily in an academic-career (for as long as modern universities continue to exist), I too find myself on some mornings hitting the snooze button because GPT-6 will probably just finish my entire PhD before I even get the chance. Trust me, I've felt the fear of working in a field where you can fuck up and accidently automate your own layoff. I felt that fear then and I fear it now. I mean I was thirsting for a gpt-4 api key in March 2023, and at the same time had come to accept that AI - undoubtedly the greatest technological advancement of the 21st-century (I mean what else truly compares?) - had unlocked such a notable potential for power that it was a downright existential threat to the human species. I still fully believe that the threat of physical destruction at the hands of various AI applications is ever-present (not even accounting for the emergence of sentience or human-level will, just because it's so damn productive at almost everything it can interface with), just as I accept that most every place I will ever live in will probably forever be considered as a potential target for an international network of earth-ending atomic-bombs. Sound macabre? Too deep to consider when talking about the software job-market? Maybe you're right. But yet, all of the following is true: 1. The earth's temperature is increasing every year, leading to a growing threat of environmental catastrophes. 2. The threat of nuclear war has been a constant threat since they were first developed. We've only lasted 80 years against this possibility so far. 3. There is no natural law that in any way prohibits an artificial neural network (AI) from performing any given human-observed behavior. In fact, the gap between man and machine is primarily due to a lack of real-world AI interfaces (or robotics). Scary stuff indeed, and yet these uncomfortable facts that may soon prove to threaten our existence simply ARE. By accepting them, and working through the initial anxiety they may cause you, you will likely be able to actually come out on top of the trends if you prepare for them. The entire reason I was able to segway from my former research to something AI-related was because I could sniff out these trends earlier than anyone else in my particular scientific field, and have invested heavily in the continued success of AI tools to help me along the way. I had the advantage of excitedly watching this technology develop since 2018, but there are folks I know who were in your more naive position as well at the time, and they were able to smell the coffee earlier-on because they WEREN'T so emotionally impacted and impressed by AI. Their egos were not threatened by their lack of programming ability because they weren't programmers! I'll say this too - if you have ever considered it "cheating" to use AI to accomplish real-world work, you may want to question if that intense moralizing, obsession with professional-image, and conformity to traditional development ideology is in the best possible service to you or humanity in general. Digging your head in the sand in response to our rapidly changing cultures and technologies is like putting all your eggs in one basket. Even worse is when you only have the ill-informed and dismissive circle-jerk opinions of older tech-employees to learn from (no offense bigbox, you were just way off on this one). They've already staked their self-image and careers on a potentially-dying labor market, and if they decide to go down with the ship it may benefit them to take you down with them (anyone else have a dad with a communications degree? lol). I only wrote all this drivel because I too have issues regarding change in my life. And there's all sorts of horrifying ways a person can trick themselves into remaining as a stick in the mud. One of which is especially dangerous: convincing yourself that you're crazy, or that your rational ideas should be ignored just because they have the potential to make you feel bad. This isn't just about accepting a potential new career-path, but a key requirement for accepting any and all truth. Especially the horrible awful truths that we simply can't avoid. So our ability to even apply reason to the awful, horrid, nasty facts relies on our willingness to accept them as true. Covering your eyes and ears to the parts of the world you don't like only prevents you from ever knowing truth. Anyway the whole point of this essay is to remind everyone to stock up on guns, munitions, and A100s.
100% agree here that software development is far more complex when trying to solve real world problems. I think that AI has come a long way, but it still not there to replace software developers. [edit] AIs are really good at solving straight forward questions, but it tends to struggle with open ended questions that software engineers are trained to solve.
@@bigboxSWE another point I like to make is so many engineers are drowning in work and tech debt they can’t get to. Backfilling new API patterns. Documentation. Test coverage. System dependency upgrades. If AI can help me do that then I’d be so happy
Thank you for your videos! I have subscribed when I got recommended for your second video. I like your videos because they're straightforward, very informational and motivational. I just started learn Web development 4 months ago and still going. As a newbie, I can say I have hope that I can be a good web developer after watching your videos. Keep up the good work! 👍🏼✨
I think it would be an interesting future crisis if AI replaced junior programmers for the next generation or two and then when the current senior developers aged out, they realized there's nobody to replace them
@@aravindpallippara1577 not necessarily. I'm a carpenter and the labor shortage is insane. Age breakdown of the trades: 20-30: 7% 30-40: 23% 40-60: 70%
@@aravindpallippara1577 humans can be really short sighted. it wouldn't surprise me if we utilized ai super heavily for a decade and had a 10 year skill gap in programmers
@@rainyriderr1112 Companies would just reduce the barrier to entry again and it would another 2015 style heyday era of bootcamps and online certs. We also have enough international talent now that there will likely always be someone willing to work for cheaper for immigration papers too. They will always have their bases covered.
We don't know how well AI will develop the next few years. The jump from Chat GPT 3.5 to 4 was massive, and so was the jump from Midjourney 4 to 5. At the same time, look at self driving cars. It looked easy enough, but turns out it really, really wasn't. We just don't know yet. Exciting, isn't it? :)
Fundamentally I am just so grateful to be living through these times, I've seen 3 massive jumps in technology in my life time (internet -> smartphone -> AI). It has been incredible. I can't wait to see what the next decade brings.
@@DonaldFranciszekTuskTrue, every revolution comes with pros and cons. We can't stop it streaming through the way our technology naturally evolves. But I have to admit that you're true technology advancement brings its pain for people at the same time. Our custom changes over time, our culture changes based on our custom. It's just a matter of adaptability in the end.
I just realized SWE is probably for software engineering, all this time I've been thinking you're a fellow swede which has made me like your content more. (I love your content, it motivates me.)
this is exactly why im getting into the data side of tech. i want to write some code but i dont want to sit and invent whole program or revise whole programs i would rather analyze data manipulate data and use the code as a tool to help shape that data. data will be king in the future.
Hey ! I'm new to your channel, I really like your content keep up the good work ! I also think that AI won't replace software engineers, but I can understand the panic. The thing is, when you say for exemple that even in the worst case scenario companies will still need devs to review AI's work, it still lessens jobs opportunities obviously. I'm just learning how to code and I don't know a lot, if not nothing, about this field but from what I understand we've been "sold" the software engineering field as a field where you can easily find a job, always growing etc... which has always been the case I think ? But with AI it might not be anymore since anybody will be able to write and review basic code (by basic I mean like a basic company website for exemple). Which again lessens job opportunities. So from what I understood, the (wise) fright comes from this fact. If, as in your worst case scenario exemple, companies will only need a fraction of actual engineers let's say 1%, then it's just like trying to be a tennis pro player. You would have to be in the very best and it would not be a job as secure as it has been. Does it even make sense ?
yeh man idk. im getting into coding right now as a hobby since i like want to make a mobile app really. i mean if i get a job offer, maybe ill give it a try but im not looking at it as a main career . software development is like learning a language so the easier to learn and start making things, the more it becomes like something people are just fluent at . ive seen job boards with different jobs and they mention like a coding language , so its being used in other industries now too. its kind of hard to say about the job opportunities since the stats on google always say they are projecting growth more and more than ever in to the future. so maybe we are thinking it in a wrong way? nevertheless, i feel like being involved in this field will always be helpful and also fun.
Ur take is exactly what I keep hearing from domain experts! And I admit I'm starting to accept Ur point. Although I do wonder why you guys don't mention that THIS gpt is just a baby; growing at an exceptional rate (well if companies like openAI don't drop their development speed). What do u say when in 10 years this baby is 30 or 40 years old(in human terms)!!??😢
Of course not It takes alot of correcting chat gpt code but its theoritical knowledge is unmatched it is 5x times faster to find answer by asking it certain questions, just like reading a book. rather than surfing stack over flow.
This part with the market background just killed me lol "The Programmer is not replaceable and even if they are they're smart enough to find new markets"
yes. the important question is when, the if will only come in if society collapses or something. if it doesn't, people will continue making progress, even if it is slow progress, until we reach a sufficiently advanced ai.
This was 7 months ago which is basically nothing if you consider the fact that it took 5,500 years for us to invent the wheel. If you take a look how much it evolved and changed during these 7 month I would reconsider the message of the video. I personally don't believe that the demand for technical people with domain-specific knowledge will ever evaporate, however, the tasks they will do is certainly a subject to change.
well, what AI can do for now is only coding, but not engineering, or even a bit of programming. producing high-quality software, which is required good skills, great and proper software design principle, also proper dev workflows, is what makes you better than AI
In my understanding, AIs are just complex and delicate algorithms requiring a lot of input. Well, can algorithms outsmart living creatives like humans? Humans can be creative (come up with an actually original idea from thin air) and grow on one's own. AI can't be creative, they just generate different answers by combining data they have been trained. And they can't grow. To train AIs, we have to train them or let them gather data to train by themselves. But at the end of the day, training=memorize more things. They don't grow. More points: To build a software, humans have to work together for a very long time, stumble upon many problems and solve them. So....we gotta gather a bunch of AIs in 1 room and be like "ok, here is the business analysis, get into work, everyone." Then what? Nothing happens. AIs don't TAKE THE INITIATIVE, for example read the analysis and strike a conversation with other AI to start the work. There must be a human feed Devin the AI SWE the problem and then Devin can actually run. So yeah, in the game aka world of programming, AI tools are forever tools, human engineers are the actual masters.
I'm admittedly very early in my career as a software developer, but I agree. Having worked on massive systems, I don't see how any AI could actually write code that would work reliably on any existing large scale system. Nor can I imagine AI writing a new system of any significance from scratch and it being actually functional and maintainable. It's an incredibly complex job at both the macro-level (overall system architecture) and micro-level (implementation).
im sorry but it will easily be able to... its in its infant stage right now, give it a few years and its going to be unbelievably more intelligent. Companies will have models made to work on their own systems, its a new industry.
@@animeswitchAt that point, every job that you could have ever dream of working in would get replaced. People don't get how hard programming on the higher level is. If we would ever get to a point in which devs are obsolete, then literally no job will be needed.
@@kheenzii its just a waiting game. Its coming and it cannot be avoided. Nvidia expects their computing power to be a million times faster than it is today in 10 years. Countries are unable to slow down because of fear of losing out on being world leaders. We are definitely at risk of losing all purpose in life with our work.
I believe that If chat gpt can able replace developers then it will create new problems to the real time projects because two people can have same question or requirements but should not get the same approach and same solvation for the similar problems especially for bigger projects, and if you see this in a bigger picture it kills our future generations brains and only few people who can understand the complete coding and lives in a real-world will rule the software world like in old days😮
You state that we should be more worried about outsourcing than AI. I should point out that despite being a 30 year old phenomenon, outsourcing has also failed to eliminate the mediocre developer. If 30 years of outsourcing with incredibly favorable exchange rates and a global pool of talent available to everyone couldn't eliminate mediocre developers, what's AI going to do differently? This is going to be like trying to put out a fire with gasoline. Braindead people are going to treat engineering like a prompt-writing exercise and produce code that compiles, barely works, and close their tasks at lightning speed while piling up bugs by the hundred every week.
Let me correct you we started with the analytical engine (1837) then flipping switches on a board (ww2). Then we got to assembly (1948) then we got to punch cards that could write a high level language called FORTRAN and low level like assembly (1950s). then C (1975) then garbage ecosystem (1990s-present)
Are you an ML engineer ? it is only as good as the data it reads and filters guess what we have reached that critical mass , we will only produce so much more data vs how much it reads, then there are plenty of novel untoched areas , the companies in those ares will lock their ips literally everyone will have ai blockers , then there will be a back and forth with cybernetics and AI data scrapers. there will also be people who will create garbage inject it into the data sets and break the ais as an attack. then even if there isnt an attack it cant train again as the new sets of data are its own data as everyone is using it that means it will be leaking. very interesting times for tech , very strange times for individuals
I keep hearing that AI will open up "new opportunities" and "new markets" when replacing current jobs, but I don't understand why those new positions won't immediately be filled by AI as well, if they involve using a computer. I get the whole babysiting thing, but how many babysitters will AI need? It's like graphic design where a fraction of the designers will remain as art directors to tweak and fix the work here and there, but the vast majority will soon be (or already are) unemployed. Unlike all the other technological revolutions that replaced old occupations with new ones, these won't need humans. The AI will simply make more jobs for itself.
Tech isn't something that people just allow to happen or not. It just happens because the human race is always going to try to push the bounds of knowledge.
As a dev who doesn't see themselves as talented with any of these skills lole problem solving how do i get better? I'm getting a bachelor's soon and still feel like i know nothing. I know this is probably common though i just feel truly like i don't know what I'm doibg sometimes. Like I'm never truly pushing myself. Sorr of coasting along.
Don't give up is what you should do. I realize when I first started my position on the embedded systems side of things, I barely knew shit. Now, I still am learning a ton, but am much more competent. Not in just embedded systems knowledge, but also in other areas of programming.
i mainly use chatgpt for things that are very clearly describable and that i cant be bothered to write, like regexes or lists of things that would take time to research
What we see is just tip of the iceberg. They are already training ai models just for programming and specific ones for specific industries . Incentives are huge to develop this models because of earnings of programmers are one of highest on the market. Nobody is arguing that there will be no programmers in the future but sure will be far much less and doing less interesting tasks. Even a AI absolutist will reconcile that . Optimism will not help prepare yourself for what is coming. People who have niche specialization will be last ones to be replaced and generalists will be first.
Rn ai won't replace you but what about a couple years into the future lol? It's still gonna saturate the programming market even if it doesn't entirely replace programmers, you can expect your pay to be cut heavily
But the true question isn't whether ChatGPT can write better codes than a software engineer but whether computers can get to a point where they can understand regular language where a coding language isn't needed anymore and we can simply tell a software what to do in regular language.
thats basically whats happening , i guess we will all be moving to IOT ,robotics ML or web3 or cloud (aka very high level stuff) , what this guy is actually saing is software solutions are saturated , so saturated they trained ai on it , basically thats the gist ... but there are always new horizons and avenues , this very thing happend to mechanical engineering about a few decades ago, we are now automators , merging all engineering into 1 , thats the future for now at least , still lots of work to do but not in the mobile or desktop app spaces ... complex bigger projects or games , vr etc , so its becomming real engineering now, no more business , mobile or desktop apps anymore , no more easy startups
Look this statement, suppose AI write the whole specification of a software, and you want to start changing your requirements, because as a business man you don't see the whole picture until the software is in production. So, you start changing your requirement, do you want to AI change the whole underlying code by itself?, You will lose all the control of the code and it will be impossible as human to change anything without broke something. In summary, AI will have control and we, as human will never have control again in the life of the software, very dangerous thing.
all you just said is invalid now hahaha Claude 3 is more capable than 99.9% of the programmers. I literally give a codebase and ask for really complex features and he gave all the features that I want exactly how I want with tests created and passing. Obviously not all programmers will be replaced but even really skilled programmers can't compete with this new AI
@@foremost6233currently, probably aren't good enough to do complex tasks alone. If they put some more capable model like Claude in it, then the developers will have really big problems to find a job
Saying "AI will replace X" is nothing new. When cameras first came into existence people said they would replace portrait artists. The idea that because now something can be done quicker it will remove the "slower" way is ridiculous. I can drive to McDonald's and get a burger in half the time it takes me to cook one that doesn't mean I am going to. Yes some idiot will try to create his "AI run" website or software company but it will be just that. A gimmick. No different than the people who thought Cameras would remove the existence of painters.
I mean chat gpt can code. But its generally with a sht ton of errors and the aid of you going "thats wrong you stupid bot". I agree its a tool. Like a great doc dictionary. But thats it. A hammer may help you build a house but you gonna have a hell of a time building the whole house with just a hammer. When the first automated looms were created people rioted. Over losing their jobs. 😂
wont happen because writing new code is only 10% of the job. 90% are changing *existing* code and communicating with the customer or other teams. I dont see how AI could do that.
i can build anything but there will be a point where AI outperforms us in every tasks, there won't be a single mental task AI won't be able to just do better.
Very insightful video as always. I'm really positive that AI will not replace devs, at least not anytime in the near future. Please bigbox, can you recommend other good programming/dev related UA-cam channels and websites like yours? Thank you.
Off the top of my head I love Fireship, NoBoilerPlate, Theo Ping GG, ThePrimeAgen, MelkeyDev. If you want nonsense news on programming - they are my go to. I would also shoutout Seytonic, his content is clean :)
“Software programs aren’t created on a conveyor belt”
This quote sums it up
Thanks for the boost in confidence, i didn't stop grinding through all my anxiety (idk how), i knew it was all over hyped, but my low self esteem made me think anything can replace me, but now that the hype is dying a bit, plus this video and a few others, finally i don't have to allocate so much mental effort into suppressing my anxiety
Just keep working bro . We engineers are fighter
Do NOT watch Hamza. Just another alpha male youtuber. If you want actual advice, go read the bible or smth
Low self esteem can be a definite harbinger of useless shame, which you must fight off in order to continue learning and performing Computation at a career-sustaining level. However, I have to assume that in over a year you must now see the fundamentally-groundbreaking improvements in reason, speed, and overall capability that have been made to these models. That's not your low self-esteem playing tricks on you - that's just the truth.
Even while working in the AI field myself at the beginning of 2023 (in an academic setting, which I admit makes it far easier to keep my job) I too was aware of the threat to my coding skillset. It was clear to me then as I used GPT-3, and it's now clear to everyone else using Claude-3 and GPT-4o that their continued advancement will make purely human-written line-by-line coding WITHOUT an AI-model completely obsolete. I am not aware of a single mind in the history of digital computation whose highest-accolades in programming could not have been achieved (at the very least) at a faster rate with the use of an LLM at least on par with GPT-4.
I don't want to scare you out of the field, by any means. Just the opposite, in fact. Reading your comment about 'confidence' and 'self-esteem' and 'anxiety' in relation to assessing the impact of this impending technological change struck a disconcerting chord with me. Simply because your response to this video, using it as a 4 minute reassurance of your wavering faith in the software labor-market, was inherently flawed - I saw an incorrect technological and societal judgement that I think you only made because of that very same negative attitude you were trying to escape.
In more direct terms: While a negative mindset could indeed make you ignore the reassuring facts in this video you already believed about AI (like what you said about there being unbelievable hype, or that any AI model to this day requires a "human-in-the-loop" to function), it is equally true that the facts you choose to remain blind to in order to preserve your inner-peace can be just as harmful if ignored. So you basically chose to put your mental-stability in the hands of one SWE's singular opinion whose view of AI is inherently biased as a career-programmer, and who did not put the necessary effort to predict the actual trends in the deployment of transformer-based llm models over the past year. Regardless of why @bigboxSWE did not make accurate predictions about the following trends and potentials in AI:
1. AI's increase in the global-increase of programming-capability and programming-efficiency
2. The upper-bounds of programming ability that were possible to achieve in just an additional year of closed and open-source AI model development
3. The massive blow to the software labor-force (AI was directly responsible for the vast majority of layoffs with the greatest layoffs being recorded just in 2024) in terms of quantity. Watch/read anything about these layoffs and it becomes clear that companies are, in fact, feeding their proprietary data/code-bases to create products and solve problems quickly and cheaply. And even if this isn't a direct strategy, the internal and external competition inherent to the labor force means ALL companies either get-ahead or fall-behind due to the ever-increasing employment of AI. This discussion was quite publicly debated constantly until it became the silent-norm.
4. The massive and viral potential for models other than chat-gpt that were, even at the time, quickly becoming prepackaged in the development ecosystems used by so many programmers (co-pilot at the time being quite widely used in Apr 2023, just 2 months after release).
5. The potential for revolutionarily simple, yet profound LLM-based architectures and solutions. These can still be built on sophisticated and preexisting AI-backends, but only need to introduce computationally lightweight wrappers and interfaces, or domain-specific training data that is well-curated and niche enough to create useful and novel behaviors in an LLM, or even just plain-english 'jailbreak' methods to wrangle the behavior of the most expensive super-computers known to man.
Summarize that previous example out loud if you haven't yet: Not only do you have the ability to talk to a supercomputer in most any human language, but you can use plain, intuitive english to literally hack its intended behavior! In fact the reverse-engineering that revealed Chat-GPT's initially-supplied prompts was also done in the most revolutionary programming language to-date: English! So the hype was real, my man, even in Apr/May of last year, and you were actually already on the right path to understanding and taking advantage of these trends before ever seeing this video. That anxiety you described was not at all misplaced. You could see, feel, and hear which way the wind was blowing, but blew your intuition off because it felt easier in the short term.
Am I being dramatic? Yes. But even as a 25 year-old positioned cozily in an academic-career (for as long as modern universities continue to exist), I too find myself on some mornings hitting the snooze button because GPT-6 will probably just finish my entire PhD before I even get the chance. Trust me, I've felt the fear of working in a field where you can fuck up and accidently automate your own layoff. I felt that fear then and I fear it now. I mean I was thirsting for a gpt-4 api key in March 2023, and at the same time had come to accept that AI - undoubtedly the greatest technological advancement of the 21st-century (I mean what else truly compares?) - had unlocked such a notable potential for power that it was a downright existential threat to the human species. I still fully believe that the threat of physical destruction at the hands of various AI applications is ever-present (not even accounting for the emergence of sentience or human-level will, just because it's so damn productive at almost everything it can interface with), just as I accept that most every place I will ever live in will probably forever be considered as a potential target for an international network of earth-ending atomic-bombs.
Sound macabre? Too deep to consider when talking about the software job-market? Maybe you're right. But yet, all of the following is true:
1. The earth's temperature is increasing every year, leading to a growing threat of environmental catastrophes.
2. The threat of nuclear war has been a constant threat since they were first developed. We've only lasted 80 years against this possibility so far.
3. There is no natural law that in any way prohibits an artificial neural network (AI) from performing any given human-observed behavior. In fact, the gap between man and machine is primarily due to a lack of real-world AI interfaces (or robotics).
Scary stuff indeed, and yet these uncomfortable facts that may soon prove to threaten our existence simply ARE. By accepting them, and working through the initial anxiety they may cause you, you will likely be able to actually come out on top of the trends if you prepare for them. The entire reason I was able to segway from my former research to something AI-related was because I could sniff out these trends earlier than anyone else in my particular scientific field, and have invested heavily in the continued success of AI tools to help me along the way.
I had the advantage of excitedly watching this technology develop since 2018, but there are folks I know who were in your more naive position as well at the time, and they were able to smell the coffee earlier-on because they WEREN'T so emotionally impacted and impressed by AI. Their egos were not threatened by their lack of programming ability because they weren't programmers! I'll say this too - if you have ever considered it "cheating" to use AI to accomplish real-world work, you may want to question if that intense moralizing, obsession with professional-image, and conformity to traditional development ideology is in the best possible service to you or humanity in general. Digging your head in the sand in response to our rapidly changing cultures and technologies is like putting all your eggs in one basket. Even worse is when you only have the ill-informed and dismissive circle-jerk opinions of older tech-employees to learn from (no offense bigbox, you were just way off on this one). They've already staked their self-image and careers on a potentially-dying labor market, and if they decide to go down with the ship it may benefit them to take you down with them (anyone else have a dad with a communications degree? lol).
I only wrote all this drivel because I too have issues regarding change in my life. And there's all sorts of horrifying ways a person can trick themselves into remaining as a stick in the mud. One of which is especially dangerous: convincing yourself that you're crazy, or that your rational ideas should be ignored just because they have the potential to make you feel bad. This isn't just about accepting a potential new career-path, but a key requirement for accepting any and all truth. Especially the horrible awful truths that we simply can't avoid. So our ability to even apply reason to the awful, horrid, nasty facts relies on our willingness to accept them as true. Covering your eyes and ears to the parts of the world you don't like only prevents you from ever knowing truth.
Anyway the whole point of this essay is to remind everyone to stock up on guns, munitions, and A100s.
100% agree here that software development is far more complex when trying to solve real world problems. I think that AI has come a long way, but it still not there to replace software developers. [edit] AIs are really good at solving straight forward questions, but it tends to struggle with open ended questions that software engineers are trained to solve.
I can confirm that my ass is really good at solving straight forward questions
@@iGhostr LMAO I can't spell
Thanks. That's very relieving. And yeah, I agree, this brings my confidence up. Thank you for that.
Going to be reacting to this video live on my stream. Great content! Absolute banger
Was watching your vod, such good feedback! Awesome work as always Melkey and thank you for the comment
Lots of talented devs from developing nations never get found by silicon valley.
One interesting this is this guy himself is from or a descendents of Bangladesh
So basically, be the top 10% of programmers.
Bruh the answer is "no, not in the next few months and if you're the top developer"
This is so on point. And the memes are on point too. I’ve been talking about similar points about AI for a while now. Well put.
Thank you so much Cody! It's a shame the amount of fear-based click selling that's happening on the Internet right now.
@@bigboxSWE another point I like to make is so many engineers are drowning in work and tech debt they can’t get to. Backfilling new API patterns. Documentation. Test coverage. System dependency upgrades. If AI can help me do that then I’d be so happy
I respect your videos and opinions man, I hope AI doesn't replace us, because I like developing software :)
Thank you so much for your amazing comment
what if in future people can do it programmer not by programming language. but in human language
with the help of artificial intelligence. everyone can become a senior programmer just by taking a 1 week course taught by chat gpt
@@bigboxSWE what you think about universal basic income
does that mean we dont be a capitalist country?@@carkawalakhatulistiwa
1 years later update: yes (it's over).
Awesome content once again bigbox! On point, and a good slap of reality for developers. Thanks for the video and keep it up
Thank you for your videos! I have subscribed when I got recommended for your second video. I like your videos because they're straightforward, very informational and motivational.
I just started learn Web development 4 months ago and still going. As a newbie, I can say I have hope that I can be a good web developer after watching your videos.
Keep up the good work! 👍🏼✨
Thank you so much for your awesome feedback! Good luck on your journey and keep me posted :)
I think it would be an interesting future crisis if AI replaced junior programmers for the next generation or two and then when the current senior developers aged out, they realized there's nobody to replace them
Nah we would never let that happen - in any career there is that stage where you feel the incessant need to pass on your skills lol
@@aravindpallippara1577 not necessarily. I'm a carpenter and the labor shortage is insane. Age breakdown of the trades:
20-30: 7%
30-40: 23%
40-60: 70%
@@rainyriderr1112 Ok agreed on that part, carpenters and electricians are in really short supply
@@aravindpallippara1577 humans can be really short sighted. it wouldn't surprise me if we utilized ai super heavily for a decade and had a 10 year skill gap in programmers
@@rainyriderr1112 Companies would just reduce the barrier to entry again and it would another 2015 style heyday era of bootcamps and online certs. We also have enough international talent now that there will likely always be someone willing to work for cheaper for immigration papers too. They will always have their bases covered.
We don't know how well AI will develop the next few years. The jump from Chat GPT 3.5 to 4 was massive, and so was the jump from Midjourney 4 to 5. At the same time, look at self driving cars. It looked easy enough, but turns out it really, really wasn't. We just don't know yet. Exciting, isn't it? :)
Fundamentally I am just so grateful to be living through these times, I've seen 3 massive jumps in technology in my life time (internet -> smartphone -> AI). It has been incredible. I can't wait to see what the next decade brings.
@@bigboxSWE i hope ai do code very. cause i dont wanna do coding. i can do something else instead
@@bigboxSWE Incredible? Bro, look what happened with families, friendships and social mental health.
@@DonaldFranciszekTuskTrue, every revolution comes with pros and cons. We can't stop it streaming through the way our technology naturally evolves. But I have to admit that you're true technology advancement brings its pain for people at the same time. Our custom changes over time, our culture changes based on our custom. It's just a matter of adaptability in the end.
@@masternobody1896yeah i want a world where we all work at amazon
I needed this, thanks!
I just realized SWE is probably for software engineering, all this time I've been thinking you're a fellow swede which has made me like your content more. (I love your content, it motivates me.)
this is exactly why im getting into the data side of tech. i want to write some code but i dont want to sit and invent whole program or revise whole programs i would rather analyze data manipulate data and use the code as a tool to help shape that data. data will be king in the future.
data analyst to data engineer to machine learning engineer is the better route to me than just software engineer.
Quality over quantity for sure. Your channels a good example of that. Thanks for the great content 🙏🏽
Hey ! I'm new to your channel, I really like your content keep up the good work !
I also think that AI won't replace software engineers, but I can understand the panic. The thing is, when you say for exemple that even in the worst case scenario companies will still need devs to review AI's work, it still lessens jobs opportunities obviously. I'm just learning how to code and I don't know a lot, if not nothing, about this field but from what I understand we've been "sold" the software engineering field as a field where you can easily find a job, always growing etc... which has always been the case I think ? But with AI it might not be anymore since anybody will be able to write and review basic code (by basic I mean like a basic company website for exemple). Which again lessens job opportunities. So from what I understood, the (wise) fright comes from this fact. If, as in your worst case scenario exemple, companies will only need a fraction of actual engineers let's say 1%, then it's just like trying to be a tennis pro player. You would have to be in the very best and it would not be a job as secure as it has been. Does it even make sense ?
would to hear @bigboxSWE opinion on this 👍
yeh man idk. im getting into coding right now as a hobby since i like want to make a mobile app really. i mean if i get a job offer, maybe ill give it a try but im not looking at it as a main career . software development is like learning a language so the easier to learn and start making things, the more it becomes like something people are just fluent at . ive seen job boards with different jobs and they mention like a coding language , so its being used in other industries now too. its kind of hard to say about the job opportunities since the stats on google always say they are projecting growth more and more than ever in to the future. so maybe we are thinking it in a wrong way? nevertheless, i feel like being involved in this field will always be helpful and also fun.
Completely on point. Good video!
I don't care about ChatGPT. Programming is just fun and ChatGPT is just going to make it easier to not get stuck on a simple coding problem.
Autocad didn't replaced Architects.
But 1 architect is enough to do the job of 5 architect (maybe) ( or more, i don't know)
Autocad is a tool. LLMs are agents. A hammer is a tool. A woodworker is an agent.
@@TheManinBlack9054 LLMs are not agents they are a tool
Good content bigbox, subbed
Thank you for dispelling my fears, as someone trying to get his foot in the industry
I mean. he is just blatantly wrong though
@@gwentarinokripperinolkjdsf683 Would you mind elaborating?
@@gwentarinokripperinolkjdsf683 u gonna elaborate or should we just take a hike
For a moment I thought I was watching Fireship 😂
Ur take is exactly what I keep hearing from domain experts! And I admit I'm starting to accept Ur point.
Although I do wonder why you guys don't mention that THIS gpt is just a baby; growing at an exceptional rate (well if companies like openAI don't drop their development speed).
What do u say when in 10 years this baby is 30 or 40 years old(in human terms)!!??😢
Of course not
It takes alot of correcting chat gpt code
but its theoritical knowledge is unmatched
it is 5x times faster to find answer by asking it certain questions, just like reading a book.
rather than surfing stack over flow.
It will make browsing for answers so much smoother
the start is nice
I see BigBoxSwe post, I like. Simples.
This assumes HR and C suite understand the value of programmers
Simply said. Man, your videos are the best.
Thank you so much Charles :)
I love this take very logical arguments you presented not that fear mongering bs
This part with the market background just killed me lol "The Programmer is not replaceable and even if they are they're smart enough to find new markets"
did you inspire your style from or are relate to fireship? I like these short-form videos, easy to digest, subscribed.
yes. the important question is when, the if will only come in if society collapses or something. if it doesn't, people will continue making progress, even if it is slow progress, until we reach a sufficiently advanced ai.
The Logic holds up, good video
Everyone forget that AI is depended on knowlege given by people. At the end of a day it's a glorified google search which can reach behind paywall.
don’t kid your self, its learning fast and developers are in jeopardy.
Nice little SOTF patch notes easter egg in there
Well. Ill tell you this. If it replaces prpgramming. The other jobs are pretty much done.
nice one, earned a sub!
thank you as always
This was 7 months ago which is basically nothing if you consider the fact that it took 5,500 years for us to invent the wheel. If you take a look how much it evolved and changed during these 7 month I would reconsider the message of the video.
I personally don't believe that the demand for technical people with domain-specific knowledge will ever evaporate, however, the tasks they will do is certainly a subject to change.
gonna need an update to this video once gpt5 drops
I graduated with data science, thought this was safe and I am even scared😂
@@filmonyoha7134 nothing in stem in safe
@@filmonyoha7134 no field is safe, but the physical jobs wont be impacted for far longer than we have in computer science and engineering
I love your channel
well, what AI can do for now is only coding, but not engineering, or even a bit of programming.
producing high-quality software, which is required good skills, great and proper software design principle, also proper dev workflows, is what makes you better than AI
In my understanding, AIs are just complex and delicate algorithms requiring a lot of input. Well, can algorithms outsmart living creatives like humans?
Humans can be creative (come up with an actually original idea from thin air) and grow on one's own.
AI can't be creative, they just generate different answers by combining data they have been trained. And they can't grow.
To train AIs, we have to train them or let them gather data to train by themselves. But at the end of the day, training=memorize more things. They don't grow.
More points:
To build a software, humans have to work together for a very long time, stumble upon many problems and solve them. So....we gotta gather a bunch of AIs in 1 room and be like "ok, here is the business analysis, get into work, everyone." Then what? Nothing happens. AIs don't TAKE THE INITIATIVE, for example read the analysis and strike a conversation with other AI to start the work.
There must be a human feed Devin the AI SWE the problem and then Devin can actually run.
So yeah, in the game aka world of programming, AI tools are forever tools, human engineers are the actual masters.
ai can be a way to learn much faster. Having a buddy you can ask is always nice. Its not always 100% correct but real teachers are not aswell.
IMO it is possible for AI to replace programmers, it does this if it's capable of replacing ALL jobs or nearly all jobs, and not before hand.
AI will only make good programmers better programmers.
Heck ma man release a new video 🤜🏻🤛🏻
I'm admittedly very early in my career as a software developer, but I agree. Having worked on massive systems, I don't see how any AI could actually write code that would work reliably on any existing large scale system. Nor can I imagine AI writing a new system of any significance from scratch and it being actually functional and maintainable. It's an incredibly complex job at both the macro-level (overall system architecture) and micro-level (implementation).
im sorry but it will easily be able to... its in its infant stage right now, give it a few years and its going to be unbelievably more intelligent. Companies will have models made to work on their own systems, its a new industry.
@@animeswitchAt that point, every job that you could have ever dream of working in would get replaced. People don't get how hard programming on the higher level is. If we would ever get to a point in which devs are obsolete, then literally no job will be needed.
@@kheenzii its just a waiting game. Its coming and it cannot be avoided. Nvidia expects their computing power to be a million times faster than it is today in 10 years. Countries are unable to slow down because of fear of losing out on being world leaders. We are definitely at risk of losing all purpose in life with our work.
@@animeswitchpfft I doubt it. There will always be different jobs opening up. Only defeated idiots will be out of jobs.
@@HonsHon im mostly referring to the people that spent years learning the skills for their current work.
On point 👌
Can you make a update video? They are releasing a ai software engineer.. bro in 5 to 10 years I think it will
It most definitely will Devin is insane
Legend how the first word he says is the answer to the title.
lets go big box
How to become one of those highly skilled engineer/software developer?
Good question! But I would ask a highly skilled Engineer rather than me :)
@@bigboxSWE okay sure 👍. But your video are awesome. Thank you for them.
what about web developers?
I believe that If chat gpt can able replace developers then it will create new problems to the real time projects because two people can have same question or requirements but should not get the same approach and same solvation for the similar problems especially for bigger projects, and if you see this in a bigger picture it kills our future generations brains and only few people who can understand the complete coding and lives in a real-world will rule the software world like in old days😮
You state that we should be more worried about outsourcing than AI. I should point out that despite being a 30 year old phenomenon, outsourcing has also failed to eliminate the mediocre developer. If 30 years of outsourcing with incredibly favorable exchange rates and a global pool of talent available to everyone couldn't eliminate mediocre developers, what's AI going to do differently? This is going to be like trying to put out a fire with gasoline. Braindead people are going to treat engineering like a prompt-writing exercise and produce code that compiles, barely works, and close their tasks at lightning speed while piling up bugs by the hundred every week.
BigBoxSWE, my mentor!
Let me correct you we started with the analytical engine (1837) then flipping switches on a board (ww2). Then we got to assembly (1948) then we got to punch cards that could write a high level language called FORTRAN and low level like assembly (1950s). then C (1975) then garbage ecosystem (1990s-present)
Yes, it will. Next question
Yes it will
complete lack of awareness of how intelligent AI will become...
Ai will replace all jobs accountants lawyers, drivers, cooks, cleaners, cashiers, shop keepers, etc
Are you an ML engineer ? it is only as good as the data it reads and filters guess what we have reached that critical mass , we will only produce so much more data vs how much it reads, then there are plenty of novel untoched areas , the companies in those ares will lock their ips literally everyone will have ai blockers , then there will be a back and forth with cybernetics and AI data scrapers. there will also be people who will create garbage inject it into the data sets and break the ais as an attack. then even if there isnt an attack it cant train again as the new sets of data are its own data as everyone is using it that means it will be leaking. very interesting times for tech , very strange times for individuals
ps noval algorithms will be in so much high demand as companies have to compete on an entirely new level
Thank you!
We programmers are the overseers of AI 🧐 We just gotta prevent skynet and the singularity and there's nothing to worry about.
I keep hearing that AI will open up "new opportunities" and "new markets" when replacing current jobs, but I don't understand why those new positions won't immediately be filled by AI as well, if they involve using a computer.
I get the whole babysiting thing, but how many babysitters will AI need? It's like graphic design where a fraction of the designers will remain as art directors to tweak and fix the work here and there, but the vast majority will soon be (or already are) unemployed.
Unlike all the other technological revolutions that replaced old occupations with new ones, these won't need humans. The AI will simply make more jobs for itself.
The only one I saw was either content or prompt engennering the rest require phds😂
We will all regret that we let this AI thing happen
Tech isn't something that people just allow to happen or not. It just happens because the human race is always going to try to push the bounds of knowledge.
I have some advice on my videos about software engineering.
I'm so scared of losing my job
That intro had me laughing
As a dev who doesn't see themselves as talented with any of these skills lole problem solving how do i get better? I'm getting a bachelor's soon and still feel like i know nothing. I know this is probably common though i just feel truly like i don't know what I'm doibg sometimes. Like I'm never truly pushing myself. Sorr of coasting along.
me too probably gonna switch careers. no point in being a below average programmer these days
Don't give up is what you should do. I realize when I first started my position on the embedded systems side of things, I barely knew shit.
Now, I still am learning a ton, but am much more competent. Not in just embedded systems knowledge, but also in other areas of programming.
No company's owner is willing to write the code himself using AI.
i mainly use chatgpt for things that are very clearly describable and that i cant be bothered to write, like regexes or lists of things that would take time to research
What we see is just tip of the iceberg. They are already training ai models just for programming and specific ones for specific industries . Incentives are huge to develop this models because of earnings of programmers are one of highest on the market. Nobody is arguing that there will be no programmers in the future but sure will be far much less and doing less interesting tasks. Even a AI absolutist will reconcile that . Optimism will not help prepare yourself for what is coming. People who have niche specialization will be last ones to be replaced and generalists will be first.
other way around. there is a lot of shit to automate
not to mention that companies and everyone will have ai blockers , ai can regress aswell
Ai Will replace a sectors and we need to ensure we don’t lose our human rights in the process
Rn ai won't replace you but what about a couple years into the future lol?
It's still gonna saturate the programming market even if it doesn't entirely replace programmers, you can expect your pay to be cut heavily
But the true question isn't whether ChatGPT can write better codes than a software engineer but whether computers can get to a point where they can understand regular language where a coding language isn't needed anymore and we can simply tell a software what to do in regular language.
thats basically whats happening , i guess we will all be moving to IOT ,robotics ML or web3 or cloud (aka very high level stuff) , what this guy is actually saing is software solutions are saturated , so saturated they trained ai on it , basically thats the gist ... but there are always new horizons and avenues , this very thing happend to mechanical engineering about a few decades ago, we are now automators , merging all engineering into 1 , thats the future for now at least , still lots of work to do but not in the mobile or desktop app spaces ... complex bigger projects or games , vr etc , so its becomming real engineering now, no more business , mobile or desktop apps anymore , no more easy startups
I'm a ts writing soy dev. Do you watch Primeagen?
only one person per 1,000 AI.
Look this statement, suppose AI write the whole specification of a software, and you want to start changing your requirements, because as a business man you don't see the whole picture until the software is in production. So, you start changing your requirement, do you want to AI change the whole underlying code by itself?, You will lose all the control of the code and it will be impossible as human to change anything without broke something. In summary, AI will have control and we, as human will never have control again in the life of the software, very dangerous thing.
I don't want to be jobless due to AI
all you just said is invalid now hahaha Claude 3 is more capable than 99.9% of the programmers. I literally give a codebase and ask for really complex features and he gave all the features that I want exactly how I want with tests created and passing. Obviously not all programmers will be replaced but even really skilled programmers can't compete with this new AI
What about Devin AI?
@@foremost6233currently, probably aren't good enough to do complex tasks alone. If they put some more capable model like Claude in it, then the developers will have really big problems to find a job
@@foremost6233it got caught for lying and faking demo
like? sounds vague
Saying "AI will replace X" is nothing new. When cameras first came into existence people said they would replace portrait artists. The idea that because now something can be done quicker it will remove the "slower" way is ridiculous. I can drive to McDonald's and get a burger in half the time it takes me to cook one that doesn't mean I am going to. Yes some idiot will try to create his "AI run" website or software company but it will be just that. A gimmick. No different than the people who thought Cameras would remove the existence of painters.
I mean chat gpt can code. But its generally with a sht ton of errors and the aid of you going "thats wrong you stupid bot".
I agree its a tool. Like a great doc dictionary. But thats it. A hammer may help you build a house but you gonna have a hell of a time building the whole house with just a hammer.
When the first automated looms were created people rioted. Over losing their jobs. 😂
Join the forefront of software development's future.
wont happen because writing new code is only 10% of the job. 90% are changing *existing* code and communicating with the customer or other teams. I dont see how AI could do that.
Devin...
TL;DW 0:00
what if in future people can do it programmer not by programming language. but in human language
20 years later may be 🎉
What if in future people English speak better and make language programming for programs?
i can build anything but there will be a point where AI outperforms us in every tasks, there won't be a single mental task AI won't be able to just do better.
I'm not pushing enough, TBH, and I'm from developing country😈
Humans don’t have the capability to create something that can create code with good problem solving
Anytime I watch your videos I always feel nothing can stop me from coding. Thank you very much.
Bro i like to learn coding...which programming language is the best for beginners?
@@aju8021 ok bro, I'm currently doing Web dev, there's also app development machine learning etc. what will you like to learn.
@@code_kage_247 is there still scope for python developer
same here. i want to make a mobile app. is web dev basically the same as app dev?@@code_kage_247
Thanks, but why should I believe you?
nice
well done
I love how humans (like this content creator) fail to see exponential trends.
Of course - that's why I factored in us reaching AGI within 5 years if you watch up to the 3 minute mark :)
Very insightful video as always. I'm really positive that AI will not replace devs, at least not anytime in the near future.
Please bigbox, can you recommend other good programming/dev related UA-cam channels and websites like yours? Thank you.
Off the top of my head I love Fireship, NoBoilerPlate, Theo Ping GG, ThePrimeAgen, MelkeyDev. If you want nonsense news on programming - they are my go to. I would also shoutout Seytonic, his content is clean :)