I loved how you played the few seconds of the song in the video, you should do this more. Probably a lot of more editing but if you'd also show like a production design shot, that would be so cool.
I think A Real Pain should be in the 15 for Editing, if not the top 10. I can see it getting into Editing and being win-competitive for Picture and Screenplay too, in addition to Culkin, pulling a CODA.
actually cole, jacques audiard has clarified the actors do in fact sing live in emilia perez and that’s evident when you’ve seen the movie vs listening to the soundtrack that just dropped on streaming
I love how slowly and begrudgingly y’all are starting to put Wicked into your predictions. It’s happening guys. It’s going to be huge in techs. Just predict it for everything. Get it over with.
A couple of notes on the recent Grammy 2025 nominations: 1. Challengers just got nominated for score. Although so did Dune Part 2 🤔 2. Right now, I don't see it, but... Ain’t No Love In Oklahoma [From “Twisters: The Album”] just got in for Original Song. Just my two cents for now. Excellent take on the tech categories.
I hope Nosferatu gets some love at the Oscars. Haven’t seen it yet obviously but the trailer and the early reactions makes me confident about its chances and more excited to see it in the cinema. Also the best that I think Joker 2 could do is Cinematography, Hair & Make-Up and Best Original Song for Folie A Deux.
Michal Dymek, who shot The Girl with the Needle, also shot A Real Pain this year. Camer Image festival hasn’t happened yet. He’s Polish, he’s sure to be heavily celebrated there, so it’s easily conceivable he begins to be looked at like Lukas Zal.
there's something to be said about me leaving a comment about The Substance under every vid so far so, the most optimistic scenario- BP, Director, Actress, Supp Actress, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Sound, Score, Makeup, Visual effects most likely- BP, Actress, Screenplay, Sound, Makeup
Pat Scola, for Sing Sing should be nominated for Cinematography. If your saying Nickel Boys deserves the nomination that so does Pat Scola. Nickel Boys is a extremely similar to his style in Sing, Sing, We Grown Now, and Pig . The images from the trailer are some of the same Scola uses in Sing, Sing. The out stretched hand, the face close ups, the shots of the beautiful scenery outside of Sing, Sing with the train tracks, ect... I think you need to take a look at Sing Sing again and choose for the right reason not because you think that it should win. I just sayin.
A Different Man might mostly be one thing but then again, so was Poor Things. I also have it getting nominated for makeup. I also have Better Man winning VFX which might be insane, but it's one of those bizarre gut feelings I have.
Anora for editing depends on whether Oscar votes think it was a good choice for Baker to let the invasion and search scenes drag on as long as they did. Many people seem to love those scenes. I did not, they dragged like crazy and were the worst part of the movie for me. I think Oscar voters will be on my side.
We'll probably find out in a few weeks, but what do y'all think about Wicked in the Best Original Score category? It sounds really promising (from what I can gather from socials and their website), and since there isn't an Original Song, they could focus more of their energy for getting John Powell his second nom. I'm just surprised that barely anyone is even considering this.
Most of the time musicals get nominated it's for original musicals and not adaptations, but I guess it should be looked out for, maybe there is something there.
do you think Emilia Perez has a chance to drop off significantly with all the hate and divisiveness it's gonna (and already has) receive? people already comparing it to crash. do you think it drops off in director/screenplay and makes room for ramell ross/coralie
Sing Sing should also be nominated for best picture and you believed that but because A25 lack of distribution you allowed it to fall behind and not promote it any longer.
I started playing the Challengers score while watching you guys debate whether or not the Challengers score has a shot to get nominated, and it was as riveting as the film
I agree totally about the score for The Brutalist and can't wait to hear it for myself/see the film. As a photographer hobbyist, I would also love to see it win cinematography too, personally. (I'm partial to the Emilia Perez soundtrack as well... It will be interesting to see who wins).
My current predictions on the app (as of 28.11): *Best Cinematography:* 20. Lawrence Sher (Joker: Folie à Deux) 19. Robbie Ryan (Kinds of Kindness) 18. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (Queer) 17. Benjamin Kračun (The Substance) 16. Phedon Papamichal (A Complete Unknown) 15. Mike Gioulakis (The Piano Lesson) 14. Simon Duggan (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga) 13. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (Challengers) 12. Alice Brooks (Wicked) 11. Jarin Blaschke (Nosferatu) 10. John Mathieson (Gladiator II) 9. Michał Dymek (The Girl with the Needle) 8. Drew Daniels (Anora) 7. Paul Guilhaume (Emilia Pérez) 6. Yorick Le Saux (Blitz) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Stéphan Fontaine (Conclave) 4. Edward Lachman (Maria) 3. Jormo Fray (Nickel Boys) 2. Lol Crawley (The Brutalist) 1. Greig Fraiser (Dune: Part Two) *Best Editing:* 21. Mike Flanagan (The Life of Chuck) 20. Jeff Groff (Joker: Folie à Deux) 19. Yorgos Mavropsaridis (Kinds of Kindness) 18. Eliot Knapman and Margarer Sixel (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga) 17. Marco Costa (Queer) 16. Nathan Orloff and Shane Reid (Saturday Night) 15. Parker Laramie (Sing Sing) 14. Andrew Buckland and Scott Morris (A Complete Unknown) 13. Marco Costa (Challengers) 12. Claire Simpson and Sam Restivo (Gladiator II) 11. Peter Sciberras (Blitz) 10. Myron Kerstein (Wicked) 9. Nicholas Monsour (Nickel Boys) 8. Hansjörg Weißbrich (September 5) 7. Jérome Eltabet, Coralie Fargeat and Valentin Féron (The Substance) 6. Nick Emerson (Conclave) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Andrew Bird (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) 4. Dávid Janscó (The Brutalist) 3. Juliette Welfing (Emilia Pérez) 2. Sean Baker (Anora) 1. Joe Walker (Dune: Part Two) *Best Production Design:* 17. Beth Mickle, Lisa K. Sessions and Bradley Rubin (Megalopolis) 16. Mark Friedbarg and Karen O'Hara (Joker: Folie à Deux) 15. Jess Gonchor and Claudia Bonfe (Saturday Night) 14. Regina Graves and François Auduoy (A Complete Unknown) 13. Guy Hendrix Dyas and Sandro Piccarozzi (Maria) 12. Naaman Marshall and Zsuzsanna Sipos (Alien: Romulus) 11. Colin Gibson and Katie Sharrock (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga) 10. Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brentrova (Nosferatu) 9. Oh I am NOT bothering with these complicated ahh names (The Substance) 8. Lori Mazuer, David Morison and Mark Scruton (Beetlejuice Beetlejuice) 7. Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock (Blitz) 6. Judy Becker (The Brutalist) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Sandra Castello and Cécille Deleu (Emilia Pérez) 4. Suzie Davis, Cynthia Sleiter and Roberta Montermale (Conclave) 3. Arthur Max, Elli Griff and Jille Azis (Gladiator II) 2. Nathan Crowley (Wicked) 1. Shane Vieau and Patrice Vermette (Dune: Part Two) *Best Costume Design:* 17. Kinds of Kindness 16. Megalopolis 15. The Substance 14. Joker: Folie à Deux 13. A Complete Unknown 12. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga 11. Saturday Night 10. Emilia Pérez 9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 8. Nosferatu 7. The Brutalist 6. Blitz --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Conclave 4. Maria 3. Gladiator II 2. Wicked 1. Dune: Part Two *Best Makeup and Hairstyling:* 19. Bob Marley: One Love 18. Nightbitch 17. The Smashing Machine 16. Joker: Folie à Deux 15. Saturday Night 14. The Brutalist 13. Gladiator II 12. Maria 11. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga 10. Sasquatch Sunset 9. A Different Man 8. Emilia Pérez 7. A Complete Unknown 6. Nosferatu --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Wicked 4. The Apprentice 3. Gladiator II 2. The Substance 1. Dune: Part Two *Best Visual Effects:* 19. Here 18. Megalopolis 17. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire 16. Blitz 15. The Substance 14. A Quiet Place: Day One 13. Nosferatu 12. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 11. Deadpool & Wolverine 10. IF 9. Alien: Romulus 8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga 7. Better Man 6. Twisters --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Wicked 4. Mufasa: The Lion King 3. Gladiator II 2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes 1. Dune: Part Two *Best Sound:* 23. Nosferatu 22. The Wild Robot 21. Joker: Folie à Deux 20. The End 19. September 5 18. Challengers 17. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes 16. Nickel Boys 15. Twisters 14. The Piano Lesson 13. Civil War 12. Alien: Romulus 11. Conclave 10. The Substance 9. A Quiet Place: Day One 8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga 7. The Brutalist 6. Gladiator II --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Blitz 4. Wicked 3. A Complete Unknown 2. Emilia Pérez 1. Dune: Part Two *Best Score:* 20. Taylor Stewarr and Andrew Grush (The Life of Chuck) 19. Hildur Guðnadóttir (Joker: Folie à Deux) 18. Jerskin Fendrix (Kinds of Kindness) 17. Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor (Queer) 16. Raffertie (The Substance) 15. Scott Alario and Slex Somers (Nickel Boys) 14. Alexandre Desplat (The Piano Lesson) 13. Andrea Datzman (Inside Out 2) 12. Harry Gregson-Williams (Gladiator II) 11. Stephen Schwartz and John Powell (Wicked) 10. Bryce Dessner (Sing Sing) 9. Kris Bowers (The Wild Robot) 8. Alberto Iglesias (The Room Next Door) 7. Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor (Challengers) 6. Hans Zimmer (Dune: Part Two) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Hans Zimmer (Blitz) 4. Jon Batiste (Saturday Night) 3. Clément Ducol and Camille (Emilia Pérez) 2. Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist) 1. Volker Bertelmann (Conclave) *Best Original Song:* 21. Relentless (Diane Warren: Relentless) 20. We're Back (Moana 2) 19. Better Way to Live (Kneecap) 18. Love Again (I am: Celine Dion) 17. Harley and Joker Waltz (Joker: Folie à Deux) 16. Winter's Coat (Blitz) 15. Will and Harper Go West (Will & Harper) 14. TBD (Wicked) 13. Folie à Deux (Joker: Folie à Deux) 12. Compress/Repress (Challengers) 11. Kiss the Sky (The Wild Robot) 10. Forbidden Road (Better Man) 9. Like a Bird (Sing Sing) 8. Ain't No Love in Oklahoma (Twisters) 7. I Always Wanted a Brother (Mufasa: The Lion King) 6. Double Life (Despicable Me 4) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Piece By Piece (Piece By Piece) 4. Beyond (Moana 2) 3. El Mal (Emilia Pérez) 2. Mi Camino (Emilia Pérez) 1. The Journey (The Six Triple-Eight) P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites!
I'm with Brother Bro on the Challengers score. It's amazing and Ross and Reznor have several nominations, but they've also had several misses for great works before too ('Dragon Tattoo,' Gone Girl, Empire of Light, The Killer)... also, the music branch is the literal worst... so I'll be pleasantly surprised if it gets in.
Loved the video! I love the below the line stuff. Okay, time to get crazy. Here's my case for Beetlejuice 2 winning Production Design, because JESUS it could actually win. Lemme break down the stats (strictly in production design). * Number of Tim Burton films nominated: 4 (Batman, Sleepy Hollow, Sweeney Todd, Alice in Wonderland) * Number of Tim Burton films that won: 4 * Number of Tim Burton films that won off of precursors: 1 (Sleepy Hollow) Even Batman didn't win at BAFTA and they loved Batman so much to where they nominated Jack Nicholson for Supporting Actor. * Number of Tim Burton films that only won Production Design: 3 (Batman, Sleepy Hollow, and Sweeney Todd) * Number of Tim Burton films that won Production Design off that being its only nomination: 2 (Batman, Sweeney Todd) None of these were Best Picture nominees. It is true that the first Beetlejuice didn't get nominated, but the sequel just has waaaay more sets. There's a train station, a mail office, even the contemporary sets in the land of the living stick out in a unique way, like this art gallery. Also, Beetlejuice isn't going to be Babylon, because unlike Babylon, people actually DID like Beetlejuice AND it made more money than it was anticipated to make. Sure, Beetlejuice would never be in the Best Picture conversation, but it's better to be a film everyone already knew wasnt going to be a Best Picture contender than being a Best Picture disappointment. Sorta like Cruella in that sense. No one had high expectations, so it can avoid any rambling articles about "what went wrong". Babylon might be more likely to get more Best Picture nominations from those who like it, but Beetlejuice is more likely to have broad appeal from everyone. Also, while it is true that a Tim Burton film has not been nominated for Production Design since Alice in Wonderland, think about Burton's recent filmography. Beetlejuice 2 is by far the most Tim Burton-y film we've seen since Frankenweenie. Everything else like Big Eyes, Ms. Peragrine's Home for Peculiar Children, and Dumbo have more of a corporate hand to them that doesn't let Tim Burton just do his thing. The sets don't FEEL like true Tim Burton sets. This has been hailed as a return to form for Tim Burton, and i honestly think the only thing stopping Beetlejuice from winning is simply if it doesnt get nominated. Tim Burton seems to break so many stats when it comes to winning this category to the point where he's become his own stat, and considering this is way more acclaimed than Alice in Wonderland, it carries a lot less critical baggage.
Exactly how I feel. Had it at #2 for a bit, but now I just can't imagine it getting in. Think The Substance makes a greater case for an out there editing choice, and I think Brutalist, Anora, Conclave and Dune Part II are just automatically there by default
Thank you for at the very least now, seeing the potential of "Wicked" ❤ For me the musical has been in my life for about 8 years, (when I first saw it on stage in the West End) for others it's 20 years, if there's anyone who was going to be critical about the films finally coming out, it was us. Every trailer I have seen, I have cried. I get the fact it is a two parter people were going to be like "why?" We were the same! My favourite songs are in act two and I am annoyed that I have to wait a year to see them on screen but I will, because it seems worth it. I am genuinely scared that we are only days away because I have hyped it up in my head so much 😅 Sorry for the long comment 💚💗💎🐐
Hey you two! I am a HUGE fan and have been following the channel for years now. I have an interesting question for you both. Since "A Complete Unknown" is not being released until Christmas, and it did not appear at any fall festivals, how will the movie perform at the Golden Globes since the nominations are December 9th? You both currently have the movie predicted for a Best Actor - Drama nomination, and Brother Bro, you have it predicted for a Best Supporting Actor nomination. With very few critics and other people having seen the movie before it is released, how can it secure those nominations? I personally do not predict the movie to receive any Golden Globes recognition. Thanks for all that the two of you do! I would love to hear back from you!!!
I saw The Brutalist at my local film festival, and I can say the opening sequence of the film is stunning. Definitely wouldn't complain if it wins cinematography.
my favorite movie of CHIFF was “the end”, i dont think it could get anything else but i would love to see it in best song, maybe the one thats in the trailer
Really really hope The Room Next Door gets score. Its beyond beautiful and memorable unlike Emilia Perez and Dune 2 can't remember a single note from them
The absolute guarantee that I am calling now since I seen the movie is the substance winning best makeup however it should be nominated for a few other categories as well Demi Moore for best actress if not best picture as well
Even though it’s stacked, it’s tough for me to imagine Nosferatu missing production design. It does look massive in the same way Sweeney Todd did (won). Maybe if take out the brutalist for that
Having seen Deadpool & Wolverine, no freaking way it gets Visual Effects, the hand stuff is the most impressive part of the visual effects but they are not enough to overshadow some very obvious blemishes on the effects.
I am not ready for Inside Out 2 to be snubbed in everything except Best Animated Feature and probably not even win that. ;-; Beyond from Moana 2 sounds like a really good song from what I’ve heard, though (I like to experience the songs in a musical film *in full* for the first time during the actual movie). It’s definitely the Let It Go/How Far I’ll Go/Into the Unknown of the movie. also 500th like yay
Wicked is part 1 because it is adaption the novel instead of the musical, so this film adaptation is gonna have more detail. Wicked being a part 1 makes sense similar to Dune part 1.
Double Life is the best original song in a movie in the 2020's and probably the best song Pharrell's ever made and if they don't nominate it it's a snub for the ages and I'm fearful it won't even be in the shortlist That's it, that's all I wanted to say
Iirc the disqualification score percentage thing happened right after Star Wars was getting those noms a couple of years ago so that's the answer to the question.
I'm someone who likes the Wizard of Oz prequel Oz: The Great and Powerful starring my all-time favorite actor Michelle Williams. Wicked doesn't look particularly appealing to me, but I plan to see it, so I guess I've accepted it into my life. Speaking of widely reviled films that I enjoy, I have loved all five entries in the SPUMC thus far (two of which starred Michelle as well) and very much anticipate liking Kraven the Hunter.
To answer your question: Why did Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker get nominated for best original score and Dune Part 2 might not be eligible for a nomination because it might be using more than 20% of the score from the first movie. This rule that franchise films and sequels must include and minimum of 80% new music first took effect four years ago, the year after The Rise of Skywalker came out. Many believe this rule was put in place because John Williams got nominated for all three Star Wars sequels (The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi and The Rise of Skywalker) where he uses a lot of the same music in all three films.
I would much rather Nosferatu be campaigned for than Wicked tbh. It looks like they both have many aspects that could take noms for techs. I def prefer the more stylized movie vs the over cgi disney looking movie
Blitz is not happening this award season. People are disappointed by how safe the movie is especially coming from a director like steve mcqueen who is know for taking risks
Saw it yesterday. Definitely messy and inelegant at times but it's still beautifully shot and it has its moments. If it got a cinematography nom I wouldn't be upset. I would be upset if it got editing though because it might be the clunkiest films I've seen in a while.
I'm still not convinced that The Substance can be nominated for anything outside of Makeup and Hairstyling. I REALLY liked The Substance but I just don't see it.
Maybe just maybe Demi Moore, but that's it! People are getting they hopes high, but The Academy just won't touch it outside those 2 categories. It will be a miracle if it has the luck to enter the picture 10. It's my favorite of the year by far, but man we have to be realistic.
@@lacinebutacagmail Honestly, I don't even think it's because of the genre. It just wasn't that good of a movie. What was that ending? LOL. I the premise was good, first half had me engaged, the second half tanked. If Toni Collette couldn't get a much deserved Oscar nom, I don't think Demi is getting one.
I’m SO angry with all the support behind Emilia Perez, I finally watched it and felt it was so all over the place, and specially this year that I’m Still Here is actually on the race (I’m Brazilian) and is our first movie to do that in 25 years. I just can’t believe Emilia Perez is the frontrunner to win International Feature 😫 In 1999 we lost with Central Station but it was for the great italian film (Life is Beautiful), but I don’t even think Emilia Perez is close to I’m Still Here (which ranks in the top 10 movies of the year on Letterboxd with a 4.3 score, Emilia Perez has a 3.3 score… ☠️)
Challengers’ score was nominated for a Grammy!!!! Also Compress/Repress is probably the only original song that’s memorable from this year and I’ve seen 48 of this years releases.
Not only will I not see Wicked, I'll never see any movie with CE. I could be wrong, but she's never apologized??? What an egoist. Just the thought of seeing her onscreen makes me nauseously pessimistic
It's not really. It seems it won't be Oscar player in other categories and that type of score is not in line with usual choices of this branch. Sounds like snub that will be obvious in retrospect to me.
Just like Flower Moon, I think that 3 + hour run time is going to hold The Brutalist back. Still think Dune is the frontrunner in most tech categories.
Guys, what if Blitz is some sort of Nightmare Alley? Like some irrelevant noms here and there, almost everyone think is dead and then it gets costumes, prod design, cinematography aaaaaand best picture
you two are ridiculous, always snubbing the Brazilian film I'm still here. You clearly don't know about cinema, and you favor films that are trending. An example of this is our film winning the trophy for best adapted screenplay in Venice, and it didn't even appear on their lists. Respect Fernanda Torres and respect our history
respect that you went back to the side by side because of the comments. idk its just nice
It’s fascinating how The Substance is either gonna REALLY happen or not gonna happen at all. Comes out where I live in 2 weeks, can’t wait
i think there is an third paith and that’s just makeup
It’s the best film I’ve seen this year; Anora second best, Dune2 third
It's not going to happen. A great great and crazy cult feeling movie but it would be a miracle if it gets any recognition from The Academy.
The first half is excellent but my girlfriend and I agreed that the second half is kind of a mess 😅
@@monkeyangelo717 please no more details 🙏
Thank you for your services, Twins. I love y'all, even the cat ❤
The Brutalist absolutely deserves Cinematography. It's gorgeous. And I think its chances are also boosted with the VistaVision narrative.
The Wicked surge after sitting in these comments the last few months saying it was gonna work is so vindicating 😭
Agreed. Everyone is finally joining the party!
Right!
everything i have seen from that film looks ugly as hell
@@yeahiagree1070 because it is not the final looks a lot of people confirm about it
@ which is funny cuz you havent seen it yet
I loved how you played the few seconds of the song in the video, you should do this more. Probably a lot of more editing but if you'd also show like a production design shot, that would be so cool.
an hour video for the tech categories... thank you!
I think A Real Pain should be in the 15 for Editing, if not the top 10. I can see it getting into Editing and being win-competitive for Picture and Screenplay too, in addition to Culkin, pulling a CODA.
actually cole, jacques audiard has clarified the actors do in fact sing live in emilia perez and that’s evident when you’ve seen the movie vs listening to the soundtrack that just dropped on streaming
Yes! There are clear differences. I feel like the songs in the movie sound more raw and passionate. Great soundtrack too!
selena gomez stans have found the oscar expert
Cinematography in Maria is brilliant and should be nominated also its costume design is incredible.
And when Caroline Polachek performs 'Starburned and Unkissed' live at the Oscars before winning the award then what
Not even the best song in the movie
babe wake up, oscar expert dropped!!!
are they like a religious duo ... brother bro !! what is that all about . cool dudes
I love how slowly and begrudgingly y’all are starting to put Wicked into your predictions. It’s happening guys. It’s going to be huge in techs. Just predict it for everything. Get it over with.
A couple of notes on the recent Grammy 2025 nominations:
1. Challengers just got nominated for score. Although so did Dune Part 2 🤔
2. Right now, I don't see it, but... Ain’t No Love In Oklahoma [From “Twisters: The Album”] just got in for Original Song.
Just my two cents for now. Excellent take on the tech categories.
I hope Nosferatu gets some love at the Oscars. Haven’t seen it yet obviously but the trailer and the early reactions makes me confident about its chances and more excited to see it in the cinema. Also the best that I think Joker 2 could do is Cinematography, Hair & Make-Up and Best Original Song for Folie A Deux.
I'm going to write a movie called "Editing" about editing that has a lot of editing for the sole purpose of winning best editing.
Michal Dymek, who shot The Girl with the Needle, also shot A Real Pain this year. Camer Image festival hasn’t happened yet. He’s Polish, he’s sure to be heavily celebrated there, so it’s easily conceivable he begins to be looked at like Lukas Zal.
The work is unfortunately nowhere close to Zal’s. The Girl with the Needle is a pretty underwhelming film visually in spite of its B&W
there's something to be said about me leaving a comment about The Substance under every vid so far
so, the most optimistic scenario- BP, Director, Actress, Supp Actress, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Sound, Score, Makeup, Visual effects
most likely- BP, Actress, Screenplay, Sound, Makeup
Pat Scola, for Sing Sing should be nominated for Cinematography. If your saying Nickel Boys deserves the nomination that so does Pat Scola. Nickel Boys is a extremely similar to his style in Sing, Sing, We Grown Now, and Pig . The images from the trailer are some of the same Scola uses in Sing, Sing. The out stretched hand, the face close ups, the shots of the beautiful scenery outside of Sing, Sing with the train tracks, ect... I think you need to take a look at Sing Sing again and choose for the right reason not because you think that it should win. I just sayin.
A Different Man might mostly be one thing but then again, so was Poor Things. I also have it getting nominated for makeup. I also have Better Man winning VFX which might be insane, but it's one of those bizarre gut feelings I have.
Anora for editing depends on whether Oscar votes think it was a good choice for Baker to let the invasion and search scenes drag on as long as they did. Many people seem to love those scenes. I did not, they dragged like crazy and were the worst part of the movie for me. I think Oscar voters will be on my side.
Love the brotherly bickering re Challengers for Original Score. And Brother Bro’s silent statement with the shirt🫡
It’s mad the confusion with Dune 2 score ineligibility. GoldDerby even completely removed it from its predictions for score.
Democracy died in America but lives on Oscar Expert channel
Lol - ya when a majority of people vote for one candidate over the other, clearly democracy is dead.
Trump by landslide! Hope Stan gets nominated somewhere.
@@dsp8363 I am actually wondering if The Apprentice will get some additional attention from award voters just because of the election results XD
Neither side cares about democracy. Also this is a movie channel, not a political one!
@hae no interest in a trump movie before or after the election. 🤮
We'll probably find out in a few weeks, but what do y'all think about Wicked in the Best Original Score category? It sounds really promising (from what I can gather from socials and their website), and since there isn't an Original Song, they could focus more of their energy for getting John Powell his second nom. I'm just surprised that barely anyone is even considering this.
Most of the time musicals get nominated it's for original musicals and not adaptations, but I guess it should be looked out for, maybe there is something there.
@@TheOscarExpert Ah, that makes sense. Thanks for the reply, and awesome video!
do you think Emilia Perez has a chance to drop off significantly with all the hate and divisiveness it's gonna (and already has) receive? people already comparing it to crash. do you think it drops off in director/screenplay and makes room for ramell ross/coralie
For original song, Lin Manuel Miranda is doing Mufasa so I have that in instead of Better Man.
Sing Sing should also be nominated for best picture and you believed that but because A25 lack of distribution you allowed it to fall behind and not promote it any longer.
I started playing the Challengers score while watching you guys debate whether or not the Challengers score has a shot to get nominated, and it was as riveting as the film
I could see A Complete Unknown getting the editing and sound combo like Sound of Metal
I agree totally about the score for The Brutalist and can't wait to hear it for myself/see the film. As a photographer hobbyist, I would also love to see it win cinematography too, personally. (I'm partial to the Emilia Perez soundtrack as well... It will be interesting to see who wins).
18:50 "Emilia Perez" is gonna be hated at the BAFTA's and they'll only nominate Saldaña
My current predictions on the app (as of 28.11):
*Best Cinematography:*
20. Lawrence Sher (Joker: Folie à Deux)
19. Robbie Ryan (Kinds of Kindness)
18. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (Queer)
17. Benjamin Kračun (The Substance)
16. Phedon Papamichal (A Complete Unknown)
15. Mike Gioulakis (The Piano Lesson)
14. Simon Duggan (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga)
13. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (Challengers)
12. Alice Brooks (Wicked)
11. Jarin Blaschke (Nosferatu)
10. John Mathieson (Gladiator II)
9. Michał Dymek (The Girl with the Needle)
8. Drew Daniels (Anora)
7. Paul Guilhaume (Emilia Pérez)
6. Yorick Le Saux (Blitz)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Stéphan Fontaine (Conclave)
4. Edward Lachman (Maria)
3. Jormo Fray (Nickel Boys)
2. Lol Crawley (The Brutalist)
1. Greig Fraiser (Dune: Part Two)
*Best Editing:*
21. Mike Flanagan (The Life of Chuck)
20. Jeff Groff (Joker: Folie à Deux)
19. Yorgos Mavropsaridis (Kinds of Kindness)
18. Eliot Knapman and Margarer Sixel (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga)
17. Marco Costa (Queer)
16. Nathan Orloff and Shane Reid (Saturday Night)
15. Parker Laramie (Sing Sing)
14. Andrew Buckland and Scott Morris (A Complete Unknown)
13. Marco Costa (Challengers)
12. Claire Simpson and Sam Restivo (Gladiator II)
11. Peter Sciberras (Blitz)
10. Myron Kerstein (Wicked)
9. Nicholas Monsour (Nickel Boys)
8. Hansjörg Weißbrich (September 5)
7. Jérome Eltabet, Coralie Fargeat and Valentin Féron (The Substance)
6. Nick Emerson (Conclave)
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5. Andrew Bird (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
4. Dávid Janscó (The Brutalist)
3. Juliette Welfing (Emilia Pérez)
2. Sean Baker (Anora)
1. Joe Walker (Dune: Part Two)
*Best Production Design:*
17. Beth Mickle, Lisa K. Sessions and Bradley Rubin (Megalopolis)
16. Mark Friedbarg and Karen O'Hara (Joker: Folie à Deux)
15. Jess Gonchor and Claudia Bonfe (Saturday Night)
14. Regina Graves and François Auduoy (A Complete Unknown)
13. Guy Hendrix Dyas and Sandro Piccarozzi (Maria)
12. Naaman Marshall and Zsuzsanna Sipos (Alien: Romulus)
11. Colin Gibson and Katie Sharrock (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga)
10. Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brentrova (Nosferatu)
9. Oh I am NOT bothering with these complicated ahh names (The Substance)
8. Lori Mazuer, David Morison and Mark Scruton (Beetlejuice Beetlejuice)
7. Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock (Blitz)
6. Judy Becker (The Brutalist)
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5. Sandra Castello and Cécille Deleu (Emilia Pérez)
4. Suzie Davis, Cynthia Sleiter and Roberta Montermale (Conclave)
3. Arthur Max, Elli Griff and Jille Azis (Gladiator II)
2. Nathan Crowley (Wicked)
1. Shane Vieau and Patrice Vermette (Dune: Part Two)
*Best Costume Design:*
17. Kinds of Kindness
16. Megalopolis
15. The Substance
14. Joker: Folie à Deux
13. A Complete Unknown
12. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
11. Saturday Night
10. Emilia Pérez
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
8. Nosferatu
7. The Brutalist
6. Blitz
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5. Conclave
4. Maria
3. Gladiator II
2. Wicked
1. Dune: Part Two
*Best Makeup and Hairstyling:*
19. Bob Marley: One Love
18. Nightbitch
17. The Smashing Machine
16. Joker: Folie à Deux
15. Saturday Night
14. The Brutalist
13. Gladiator II
12. Maria
11. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
10. Sasquatch Sunset
9. A Different Man
8. Emilia Pérez
7. A Complete Unknown
6. Nosferatu
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5. Wicked
4. The Apprentice
3. Gladiator II
2. The Substance
1. Dune: Part Two
*Best Visual Effects:*
19. Here
18. Megalopolis
17. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
16. Blitz
15. The Substance
14. A Quiet Place: Day One
13. Nosferatu
12. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
11. Deadpool & Wolverine
10. IF
9. Alien: Romulus
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. Better Man
6. Twisters
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5. Wicked
4. Mufasa: The Lion King
3. Gladiator II
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
1. Dune: Part Two
*Best Sound:*
23. Nosferatu
22. The Wild Robot
21. Joker: Folie à Deux
20. The End
19. September 5
18. Challengers
17. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
16. Nickel Boys
15. Twisters
14. The Piano Lesson
13. Civil War
12. Alien: Romulus
11. Conclave
10. The Substance
9. A Quiet Place: Day One
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. The Brutalist
6. Gladiator II
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5. Blitz
4. Wicked
3. A Complete Unknown
2. Emilia Pérez
1. Dune: Part Two
*Best Score:*
20. Taylor Stewarr and Andrew Grush (The Life of Chuck)
19. Hildur Guðnadóttir (Joker: Folie à Deux)
18. Jerskin Fendrix (Kinds of Kindness)
17. Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor (Queer)
16. Raffertie (The Substance)
15. Scott Alario and Slex Somers (Nickel Boys)
14. Alexandre Desplat (The Piano Lesson)
13. Andrea Datzman (Inside Out 2)
12. Harry Gregson-Williams (Gladiator II)
11. Stephen Schwartz and John Powell (Wicked)
10. Bryce Dessner (Sing Sing)
9. Kris Bowers (The Wild Robot)
8. Alberto Iglesias (The Room Next Door)
7. Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor (Challengers)
6. Hans Zimmer (Dune: Part Two)
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5. Hans Zimmer (Blitz)
4. Jon Batiste (Saturday Night)
3. Clément Ducol and Camille (Emilia Pérez)
2. Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)
1. Volker Bertelmann (Conclave)
*Best Original Song:*
21. Relentless (Diane Warren: Relentless)
20. We're Back (Moana 2)
19. Better Way to Live (Kneecap)
18. Love Again (I am: Celine Dion)
17. Harley and Joker Waltz (Joker: Folie à Deux)
16. Winter's Coat (Blitz)
15. Will and Harper Go West (Will & Harper)
14. TBD (Wicked)
13. Folie à Deux (Joker: Folie à Deux)
12. Compress/Repress (Challengers)
11. Kiss the Sky (The Wild Robot)
10. Forbidden Road (Better Man)
9. Like a Bird (Sing Sing)
8. Ain't No Love in Oklahoma (Twisters)
7. I Always Wanted a Brother (Mufasa: The Lion King)
6. Double Life (Despicable Me 4)
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5. Piece By Piece (Piece By Piece)
4. Beyond (Moana 2)
3. El Mal (Emilia Pérez)
2. Mi Camino (Emilia Pérez)
1. The Journey (The Six Triple-Eight)
P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites!
The oscar expert's impressions always crack me up, el mal lmao
I'm with Brother Bro on the Challengers score. It's amazing and Ross and Reznor have several nominations, but they've also had several misses for great works before too ('Dragon Tattoo,' Gone Girl, Empire of Light, The Killer)... also, the music branch is the literal worst... so I'll be pleasantly surprised if it gets in.
Loved the video! I love the below the line stuff. Okay, time to get crazy. Here's my case for Beetlejuice 2 winning Production Design, because JESUS it could actually win. Lemme break down the stats (strictly in production design).
* Number of Tim Burton films nominated: 4 (Batman, Sleepy Hollow, Sweeney Todd, Alice in Wonderland)
* Number of Tim Burton films that won: 4
* Number of Tim Burton films that won off of precursors: 1 (Sleepy Hollow) Even Batman didn't win at BAFTA and they loved Batman so much to where they nominated Jack Nicholson for Supporting Actor.
* Number of Tim Burton films that only won Production Design: 3 (Batman, Sleepy Hollow, and Sweeney Todd)
* Number of Tim Burton films that won Production Design off that being its only nomination: 2 (Batman, Sweeney Todd)
None of these were Best Picture nominees.
It is true that the first Beetlejuice didn't get nominated, but the sequel just has waaaay more sets. There's a train station, a mail office, even the contemporary sets in the land of the living stick out in a unique way, like this art gallery.
Also, Beetlejuice isn't going to be Babylon, because unlike Babylon, people actually DID like Beetlejuice AND it made more money than it was anticipated to make. Sure, Beetlejuice would never be in the Best Picture conversation, but it's better to be a film everyone already knew wasnt going to be a Best Picture contender than being a Best Picture disappointment. Sorta like Cruella in that sense. No one had high expectations, so it can avoid any rambling articles about "what went wrong". Babylon might be more likely to get more Best Picture nominations from those who like it, but Beetlejuice is more likely to have broad appeal from everyone.
Also, while it is true that a Tim Burton film has not been nominated for Production Design since Alice in Wonderland, think about Burton's recent filmography. Beetlejuice 2 is by far the most Tim Burton-y film we've seen since Frankenweenie. Everything else like Big Eyes, Ms. Peragrine's Home for Peculiar Children, and Dumbo have more of a corporate hand to them that doesn't let Tim Burton just do his thing. The sets don't FEEL like true Tim Burton sets. This has been hailed as a return to form for Tim Burton, and i honestly think the only thing stopping Beetlejuice from winning is simply if it doesnt get nominated. Tim Burton seems to break so many stats when it comes to winning this category to the point where he's become his own stat, and considering this is way more acclaimed than Alice in Wonderland, it carries a lot less critical baggage.
Emilia Perez missing Best Film Editing nomination is something I know in my gut will happen. Kind of like Barbie last year.
Exactly how I feel. Had it at #2 for a bit, but now I just can't imagine it getting in. Think The Substance makes a greater case for an out there editing choice, and I think Brutalist, Anora, Conclave and Dune Part II are just automatically there by default
Thank you for at the very least now, seeing the potential of "Wicked" ❤
For me the musical has been in my life for about 8 years, (when I first saw it on stage in the West End) for others it's 20 years, if there's anyone who was going to be critical about the films finally coming out, it was us. Every trailer I have seen, I have cried. I get the fact it is a two parter people were going to be like "why?" We were the same! My favourite songs are in act two and I am annoyed that I have to wait a year to see them on screen but I will, because it seems worth it. I am genuinely scared that we are only days away because I have hyped it up in my head so much 😅
Sorry for the long comment 💚💗💎🐐
Remember when y'all were predicting Supremes at Earl's All You Can Eat? Did not age well...
Hey you two! I am a HUGE fan and have been following the channel for years now. I have an interesting question for you both. Since "A Complete Unknown" is not being released until Christmas, and it did not appear at any fall festivals, how will the movie perform at the Golden Globes since the nominations are December 9th? You both currently have the movie predicted for a Best Actor - Drama nomination, and Brother Bro, you have it predicted for a Best Supporting Actor nomination. With very few critics and other people having seen the movie before it is released, how can it secure those nominations? I personally do not predict the movie to receive any Golden Globes recognition. Thanks for all that the two of you do! I would love to hear back from you!!!
I rewatched The Substance on Mubi last night and do NOT underestimate it for sound. There’s some otherworldly sound design in there.
I saw The Brutalist at my local film festival, and I can say the opening sequence of the film is stunning. Definitely wouldn't complain if it wins cinematography.
I believe the song that would show up for Twisters would be "Out of Oklahoma" by Lainey Wilson instead of "Ain't No Love in Oklahoma."
my favorite movie of CHIFF was “the end”, i dont think it could get anything else but i would love to see it in best song, maybe the one thats in the trailer
Better Man is def not just '1 ape'. He ages through the film and the dance sequences use a lot of visual effects. Don't sleep on that.
Really really hope The Room Next Door gets score. Its beyond beautiful and memorable unlike Emilia Perez and Dune 2 can't remember a single note from them
Noooo, I did love the new (now defunct) setup 😭😭😭
I for one love Kiss The Sky from Wild Robot, it touched me personally and I have listened to it repeatedly since it was released!
For me best cinematography this year is the italian movie Vermiglio thanks to the work of Mikhail Krichman
I just don’t see the Robbie Williams monkey biopic getting 2 noms. I can picture that at the Baftas though.
Emelia perez is giving me may December.
Hyped up at the beginning but got side lined towards the end
The absolute guarantee that I am calling now since I seen the movie is the substance winning best makeup however it should be nominated for a few other categories as well Demi Moore for best actress if not best picture as well
Couch setup is back SIUUUUUUU
Even though it’s stacked, it’s tough for me to imagine Nosferatu missing production design. It does look massive in the same way Sweeney Todd did (won). Maybe if take out the brutalist for that
fyi, score rules changed after the last star wars to stop that happening in the future
Having seen Deadpool & Wolverine, no freaking way it gets Visual Effects, the hand stuff is the most impressive part of the visual effects but they are not enough to overshadow some very obvious blemishes on the effects.
Not that it really makes that big a difference but Saturday Night moved up slightly on metacritic, it’s at 63 now
I am not ready for Inside Out 2 to be snubbed in everything except Best Animated Feature and probably not even win that. ;-; Beyond from Moana 2 sounds like a really good song from what I’ve heard, though (I like to experience the songs in a musical film *in full* for the first time during the actual movie). It’s definitely the Let It Go/How Far I’ll Go/Into the Unknown of the movie.
also 500th like yay
Wicked is part 1 because it is adaption the novel instead of the musical, so this film adaptation is gonna have more detail. Wicked being a part 1 makes sense similar to Dune part 1.
The Substance deserves a score nom
Love the movie but the score is all over the place at the end and not in a good way.
Double Life is the best original song in a movie in the 2020's and probably the best song Pharrell's ever made and if they don't nominate it it's a snub for the ages and I'm fearful it won't even be in the shortlist
That's it, that's all I wanted to say
Iirc the disqualification score percentage thing happened right after Star Wars was getting those noms a couple of years ago so that's the answer to the question.
I heard that Scott Mantz say an A24 rep told him that they will be campaigning Sing Sing
Honestly, I think Wicked and The Substance are messing up the predictions right now. I can't take it seriously.
Love this ♥️
I'm someone who likes the Wizard of Oz prequel Oz: The Great and Powerful starring my all-time favorite actor Michelle Williams. Wicked doesn't look particularly appealing to me, but I plan to see it, so I guess I've accepted it into my life.
Speaking of widely reviled films that I enjoy, I have loved all five entries in the SPUMC thus far (two of which starred Michelle as well) and very much anticipate liking Kraven the Hunter.
To answer your question: Why did Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker get nominated for best original score and Dune Part 2 might not be eligible for a nomination because it might be using more than 20% of the score from the first movie. This rule that franchise films and sequels must include and minimum of 80% new music first took effect four years ago, the year after The Rise of Skywalker came out. Many believe this rule was put in place because John Williams got nominated for all three Star Wars sequels (The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi and The Rise of Skywalker) where he uses a lot of the same music in all three films.
I would much rather Nosferatu be campaigned for than Wicked tbh. It looks like they both have many aspects that could take noms for techs. I def prefer the more stylized movie vs the over cgi disney looking movie
Blitz is not happening this award season.
People are disappointed by how safe the movie is especially coming from a director like steve mcqueen who is know for taking risks
Saw it yesterday. Definitely messy and inelegant at times but it's still beautifully shot and it has its moments. If it got a cinematography nom I wouldn't be upset. I would be upset if it got editing though because it might be the clunkiest films I've seen in a while.
lol. Blitz is better than anora, dune part 2, sing sing, conclave. Should win best picture!
@@tonyg76 L take after L take...
I'm still not convinced that The Substance can be nominated for anything outside of Makeup and Hairstyling. I REALLY liked The Substance but I just don't see it.
Maybe just maybe Demi Moore, but that's it! People are getting they hopes high, but The Academy just won't touch it outside those 2 categories. It will be a miracle if it has the luck to enter the picture 10. It's my favorite of the year by far, but man we have to be realistic.
@@lacinebutacagmail Honestly, I don't even think it's because of the genre. It just wasn't that good of a movie. What was that ending? LOL. I the premise was good, first half had me engaged, the second half tanked. If Toni Collette couldn't get a much deserved Oscar nom, I don't think Demi is getting one.
I have the boldest take. I think Nosferatu is getting in for picture. I don't think it'll win, but I think the Oscars will come out for it.
I’m SO angry with all the support behind Emilia Perez, I finally watched it and felt it was so all over the place, and specially this year that I’m Still Here is actually on the race (I’m Brazilian) and is our first movie to do that in 25 years. I just can’t believe Emilia Perez is the frontrunner to win International Feature 😫
In 1999 we lost with Central Station but it was for the great italian film (Life is Beautiful), but I don’t even think Emilia Perez is close to I’m Still Here (which ranks in the top 10 movies of the year on Letterboxd with a 4.3 score, Emilia Perez has a 3.3 score… ☠️)
Either brutalist or conclave for cinematography
Challengers just got a grammy nomination
Very well deserved
Wish netflix campaigned Bienvenida instead of Mi Camino for best original song its the better Selena song imo.
Dune 2, Wicked & Gladiator 2 will lead this categories
Challengers’ score was nominated for a Grammy!!!! Also Compress/Repress is probably the only original song that’s memorable from this year and I’ve seen 48 of this years releases.
Kiss The Sky for the win!
I liked Even When I’m Not equally too ☺️
Not only will I not see Wicked, I'll never see any movie with CE. I could be wrong, but she's never apologized??? What an egoist. Just the thought of seeing her onscreen makes me nauseously pessimistic
If Kiss the Sky doesnt get nominated for Best Song, I'll rage.
First time agreeing with lil bro and it’s about The Substance 😭🙏
I just watched Emilia Perez and lol. El Mal is way more relevant to the story than Mi Camino. And it’s even more entertaining
not putting challengers in score is ABSURD
It's not really. It seems it won't be Oscar player in other categories and that type of score is not in line with usual choices of this branch. Sounds like snub that will be obvious in retrospect to me.
Just like Flower Moon, I think that 3 + hour run time is going to hold The Brutalist back.
Still think Dune is the frontrunner in most tech categories.
People thought Flower Moon was boring- no one is going to think The Brutalist is boring
Ed Lachman is a monumental genius cinematographer, I think he’ll win - he’s old as dirt now and has never won. It’s a career award.
erm... so what i'm hearing is Megalopolis underdog
Lin-Manuel Miranda is writing songs for Mufasa, have some faith!
And do we really think that they will just keep nominating Diane Warren?
Will you guys predict BAFTA?
I wonder if you guys are overestimating The Substance.
We can’t review Gladiator 2……proceeds to review Gladiator 2.
Thank you for consistently championing “The Nickel Boys”.
Guys, what if Blitz is some sort of Nightmare Alley? Like some irrelevant noms here and there, almost everyone think is dead and then it gets costumes, prod design, cinematography aaaaaand best picture
Alien Romulus for anything?
lol
Everyone said the same thing about The Batman score and it didn't happen. 1:03:50
Tf? They combined the sound categories?
Please let "Kiss The Sky", be nominated just to irritate the Oscar Expert.
no love for Anora?
Dude why u gotta diss Maren Morris likes that?!!
Girl with the needle seems undeniable the problem is the studio isn’t as strong
you two are ridiculous, always snubbing the Brazilian film I'm still here. You clearly don't know about cinema, and you favor films that are trending. An example of this is our film winning the trophy for best adapted screenplay in Venice, and it didn't even appear on their lists. Respect Fernanda Torres and respect our history
In the last video, you said that Fernanda Torres who worked at the central station, however, was your mother Fernanda Montenegro. Get better...