Ten Day Forecast: July Shaping Up To Be A Write Off Perhaps?
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- Опубліковано 30 лип 2024
- Hello everyone and thanks for tuning in to today's ten day forecast video update. We're going to look at the weather for the next ten to fourteen days. Day ten will take us to 21st July - and we'll be able to extend out beyond that with the extended and ECM ensembles (they run to around a couple of weeks) We'll have a look at the BCC for the next forty days weeks which gets us well into August at the end of the video.
The weather remains rather cool and unsettled this week as we continue to be dominated by low pressure bringing heavy showers, longer spells of rain and cool temperatures. Showers and quite cool conditions continue into the weekend and looking ahead to next week many of todays model runs continue the unsettled weather with low pressure likely to still be in charge for another week at least. July 2024 shaping up to be a write off, perhaps?
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Chapters:
00:00 Intro
00:35 CET
00:56 GFS Ensembles
02:12 Temperature/Precipitation Anoamlies
02:30 Latest Wind Flow Map
02:25 Chart Data
07:47 ECM Precipitation Forecast
08:13 ECM Ensemble Clusters
08:52 CFS Weeklies
09:58 Outro
💡 Video Credits: 💡
CET: hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk...
Temp/Precip Anomalies: www.wxmaps.org/
Earthnullschool: earth.nullschool.net/
W-Z: www.wetterzentrale.de
Meteociel: www.meteociel.fr/
Tameteo: www.tameteo.com/
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Ten Day Forecast: July Shaping Up To Be A Write Off Perhaps?
#GavsWeatherVids #summerweather #summer2024
Enjoyable video and thankyou for the birthday shout out 👍👍👍
Happy birthday
Happy birthday, Andy.
I feel like this Summer has been a write off to be honest Gav 😂😂
And you just know that the Met Office will come along next month and tell us that July 2024 was the "hottest ever"
Does someone want to tell them That June was not the hottest ever or shall i?
If that happens, I shall eat my head!
@@johnb6723 The Met office has June as 0.1 below the Central England Average. So colder than average.
May was only warm due to the overnight lows, the counters don't stop counting when you've gone to bed.
@@CamelCaseeyes it seems to be the case, there is no way in the daytime it was warmer than May 2020 and 2018 which are the warmest Mays I can remember. That reminds me of the days when we used to actually get some decent weather, not this never ending rainy poorness thats been here for more than the last year and a half
Ireland based here. Worst summer I remember in so long. Miserable and feels like April
Personally I think last July was much better than this July. I also think August will be as bad if not worse especially with the shorter days and lower UV levels. If you look at Eastern Europe and Western Russia the heat is stagnant it's not going anywhere. Moscow has had 19 clear days with virtually no cloud and the coolest day in that same period has been 26c and many days over 30c. Austria and Hungary resemble Los Angeles. All I know for sure is when we have this weather pattern in the East of Europe and Western Russia, we in the UK will be stuck with the jet stream on top us and the likelihood of and descent summer weather is very slim. Again I am no expert at metrology, this is just something that I have noticed over the years. Thanks Gavin.
Shorter days and lower UV levels in August mean very little about how poor it could be. I mean look how much better September usually is than late March to early April yet UV levels are about the same
@@grannyjone I agree if the conditions are right. An example last September in Loughborough we reached 30c on the 10th August, if we had the same conditions at the end of July, I estimate the temperature to have been 34c. Stronger sun, longer day and more chance for the heat to build up.
@@grannyjone Thats because by September both the land and the sea has warmed up, as in March or April the sea and land is still quite cool.
@@grannyjone The 21st of September is the same as the 21st of March.
@@nepaleseman1010yes, it is just BST that gives the impression 21st September has longer days because it goes dark an hour later than 21st March ( BST is a man made thing I know)
Summer 2024 is proving to be a damp squib so far
So pleased Gavin your ankle much better
Thanks Gav. BBC weather seems to be indicating an upturn in fortunes but I trust you more than them!
BBC don't know what they are doing half the time.
@@nepaleseman1010 That is true yesterday there were predicting a washout on Friday in the South East and now it's due to be glorious weather
@@parmaman8551Noticed that as well..rain tomorrow now its dry.. cant trust the BBC
It will have to get warmer at some point, otherwise no month above 14c CET all year and no month warmer than May, unheard of. It is easy to get a wet dull poor Summer month with a CET above the 14’s though. I’m just waiting for the deluge to end. Never ending rain in the north west since October 2022. Since then, there has only been 2 dry months (Feb 2023 and May 2023), 2 avg months and 18 wetter than avg months. Some of them above 200% rainfall like July 2023.
Thank's Gav and the team for the ten-day forecast with the extended and the ECM ensembles. This summer so far reminds me of the summer of 1978. Anyway I found the video very interesting and informative.
I don’t mind the cooler temps if it’s dry. Bloody rain 🌧️
July in Ireland, mean temp running same as June so far. It should rise, but it will need a great spell to raise it from just average...
If its a warm slightly damp autumn/winter 😢😢😢😢
Hottest September on record.😂😂😮😮
And the most unsummery weather award goes to the uk 😂
As usual
Great update as always Gavin. Glad all went ok with the ankle
It’s going to feel like a short summer this year,thanks Gav 🌤️👎🍂
Very intresting update.
Brilliant Gavin hope you well thanks for ten days forecast class 😊👍
A lack of storms for us in the south. Yet Europe has plenty. A few said a poor summer this year.. cant argue with that. Thanks Gav
Very true.
I was going for a 20 day summer May to September but now 10 days. Might get a 30-degree day in September for a laugh
30 degrees in September is very possible 😂😂😂
@@brianpetrie3189 Not this year.
Thanks for a great video Gav. Decent sunny and relatively warm day in Gloucestershire today but that forecast does look a bit grim. Holding out for a hot August 🤞
August temperatures are reliant on the temperature input and lag built up in the atmosphere during May to July.The planet's relationship to the Sun is the same as April.Certainly never my choice as a Summer holiday month.
There seems to be a problem with the Sun's radiation output levels randomly swinging between high and low.
On a localised basis.Regardless of latitude.Which seems logical being transmitted from a globe to a globe.
So possibly excessively high temperatures or low temperatures, on a random basis, regardless of latitude or the tilt of the planet.
Could even feel considerable variations in Sun output strength while sitting in the garden during the last hour or two.
@@confederatenationalist7283 "...There seems to be a problem with the sun's radiation output..."
Really?!?! Based on what evidence?
This is not the first time I have had to ask you NOT to post this sort of misinformation on Gav's family friendly channel. Please refrain in future.
South east today 20 sussex. Rain most of the rest of the time😂
July shaping up
to be a write off!!! Thats enough to put you off watching the video 😂🤣😂🤣
So I was right. Summer has gone away this year. No warmth for us. We’ve got rubbish. Hp for about a day 😂 so much gloom and doom. Wet and windy again. Please save me. Anyone got an aeroplane? Take me back to Egypt please lol
Looks like Summer 2024 is going to be a complete write off.😢
Last couple of days haven't been too bad in the south coast of Dorset warm and sunny 22c today
If July is a write off, then I hope august will be a lot better.
Probably be a heatwave soon
Lows to north, NE NW South SW SE East West it doesn’t matter all roads lead here for crying out loud and yet a big fat ass high half filling the Atlantic ain’t budging! Oh until autumn maybe and winter when it will relocate over Europe and ensure we continue grey damp and depressing
Oh dear Oh Dear Oh Dear
BBC doesn't look to unsettled
I wander if we will get two below average months in a row 😳🤪
Same as last year then
Its not funny is it this is very depressing
Not really,I much prefer the weather like this than sweaty and sticky with flies and bugs everywhere
It really is, Jason. We get 9 months of wet, grey miserable stuff. This is our only chance for any relief. Does baffle me why people celebrate this rubbish we’re getting, I must admit 😂
More computer generated nonsense.