I Stopped Using Technical Analysis. Here's What Happened
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- Опубліковано 14 жов 2024
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There’s a member that a caddie Eric Dinowitz who use to be on the floor in the past who traded options. He told me that he only traded volatility and used no charts so this is cool to hear them go into more detail about it .
I used to use so many patterns and studies that my charts looked like abstract art. Nothing worked consistently. Every win was basically a lucky shot, and too few to make a difference. I finally stopped relying on them for any sort of tell in the market.
Great Video Errol!! I am about 2 years into seriously trading options and I am with Jermal on using Technical Analysis. I like to use it as a tool! I feel that you have to get real comfortable with support and resistance of the certain stock or ETF . Tasty is great ! Always pumping out great knowledge!
"Psychology painted on a chart." Exactly the point. Shows you group behavior and suggests where the "pockets" may be that Jermal talked about. I'll take a look *after* I've identified tasty mechanics in a spread.
absolutely love it, more than 1 way to Rome, i was the same way first TA, now I mostly look at the chain, implied vol and Expected move then put that baby on and move on to the next trade!
of course you need to look at charts if you are putting a directional trade, tasty ppl usually focus more on delta neutral and volatility and theta plays so no need for charts
The only technicals I look for are volume levels near the edge of the expected move. I feel like it helps me see if the premiums are worth the risk of that certain level. But IV is the first thing I look at. Then I try to look for any skew on the Put and Call side. That helps me choose a direction. More bang for your buck
Personally I place my positions on the historical supply/ demand areas to at least have a small directional bias. That and the big events like JPow and CPI announcements recently. Other than that I try to stay tastytrade mechanical, open trades at ~45 days and manage at 50% or 21 DTE.
Agree, I do the same. My main problem until now is that I don´t know how to manage a losing position.
@@DamianceteVideos if you follow their rule you close at 21 DTE the losing trade
Given the number of technical and fundamental analysis that have to rely on selling their information instead of trading on it, I don’t think any of it works.
This was true along time ago, too and is the reason Benjamin Graham and his student Warren Buffett simply look for value or should I say, undervalued securities. Their assumption being that eventually the market will recognize that securities value and fully price it there by beating the averages.
Tasty employees appear to use virtually nothing except Implied Volitility to enter trades. Technicals and fundaments appear to be given very little weight. I am not opposed to using volititlity BUT there is no measurable metric indicating trading by primarily using implied volitility actually works. No offense but it would seem that measure of sucess should be available if it actually worked.
I wonder if it is because they are so confident in the advantage that options sellers have that they feel that, over time, the odds are overwhelmingly on their side regardless of what the market does?
@@MHN212 Thats possible but if they really want to attract customers woudn't it be nice to know if it were successful ?
Its proven IV is overstated more so than understated. So by selling OTM options with generally high IV you're selling the more juicy premiums. Often Tasty will look at the last 3/6 months chart to see where something might've been before.
Managing at 50% of profit releases buying power when 1/2 the profit have been collected, while closing around 21 DTE removes a lot of the gamma risk.
If you want to keep looking at head and shoulders, cups and handles or some Doji's no one is stopping you.
I couldn't agree with you more. The "Tasty method," which is basically sell anything when IVR is high, is just as speculative as technical or fundamental analysis. The tasty approach might be even more dangerous than technical analysis, because how exactly do you know when you are wrong? High IVR could persist for quite some time and blow out traders who don't even know when to throw in the towel on a bad trade. There are holes in any trading style. Tasty trading has some good points -- just wish they wouldn't act so smug about their approach compared to others.
@@NotUpdated005 I understand the concept but Tasty provides nothing but concept to promote their practice. It would be nice if they could provide actual experience since they seem to have 20 employees using the practice in $ 100,000 dummy accounts. All I see Tom doing is taking trades on IV. He has never said if he is sucessful or not. Personally I'm an options seller but never just based on IV.
Great discussion! Personally, I never look at charts and I've been fairly successful over that past decade or so trading options.
How !? Lets talk about it
@@wavy2k I discuss all my trading strategies on my channel.
9:24 they have the same dentist I think
U made my day.
I have invested time in trading mainly since 2018. I started using Machine LEarning techniques. That did not work. Then I went into Technical analysis, and to be honest, that doesn't work for me to this day. I have yet to find some patterns or rules that are repeatable or can be repeated with a certain probability. Diving deeper into the concept of price action and how it is either random or completely predicable, I feel like I am right where I started in 2018, with some information I found along the way.
I started in 2018 too and yes I am pretty much in the same spot
Great video. The only charts I look at have standard deviations & linear. When you look at charts on different time frames, I always find it interesting how the mean changes when calculated on different time frames.
thats not a flag, flag is parallel channel in design sloping downwards if bullish with a impulse move. Yours was symmetrical triangle.
The only technical signal that's the most consistent is macd and it is very slow to change, so directionally it works. Oscillators will kill you unless you and tend to invalidate at peaks and troughs. Fibonacci and moving averages are great for determining price magnets but basically tasty is great in teaching you to find the value and trade on value. Volume flows are great to watch if you can decipher but it only tells the past.
You mentioned you were looking for a certain credit for the delta between .20 and .30. What are you usually looking for?
Great info, thank you!
Getting the point was to keep it simple, but in this particular example is IVR kinda low, any suggestion?
They had a market measures segment about low IVR vs high IVR success rate. check it out.
TA has been proven to not work. It has worked, but those occurrences were simply outliers. In other words, when it has worked, it was just luck. You wouldn’t do something that doesn’t work 99% of the time just because it works 1% of the time, hoping that you get lucky. If you’re gonna get lucky with your trades/investments, you will regardless of why you made that trade. Whether you used TA or not, the success of your trade ultimately does come down to luck. The markets are extremely efficient, and as a result unpredictable. If you guessed right, no matter how educated or uneducated your guess was, you just guessed and got lucky.
I agree with you but you do need confidence when trading and whatever gives you confidence to take risk - well then it works for me too whatever it is.
LMFAO. You guys are religious. We use technical analysis to trade futures ever single day and we win. It's not even that difficult. Just manage your risk. Nothing works 100%
@@jsh111 it works for you, never stop!
most tech studies (patterns, moving averages, etc) tell you WERE you have been, not where you are GOING !!
What is wrong with combining ideas
Absolutely nothing! And also my point
My edge is Erik Hadik Cycles, Larry Williams and Time Zones....
If you can be consistently profitable without looking at a chart kudos. I’m not sure how great someone can be doing that though. There’s patterns using a chart that happen over and over again and I’m not talking about simple flag and cup and handle patterns. IMO that’s lazy if that’s all someone is looking for to be profitable.
Simplicity is the best. if you were to disappear for 5 years and open up your charts would you be able to understand all of your indicators & use them efficient as if you're on top of your game?
I just use moving averages lines, and a "multiple deviation VWAP" study to draw lines with labels on the side of the chart that tell me how much money I would lose/gain if the candles were to approach the various vwap lines.
The market bots & day traders all follow moving average lines.
@@charizard609 I'm not talking about controlling your emotions but I'm asking people with extremely complicated setups if they could resume trading with their setup if the they had to walk away from it for couple months due to personal reasons such as the house catching on fire.
Indicator "salad" is what people should avoid.
Stick with a few indicators you'll be sure to always check. Many have so many individual indicators that they have to make the conscious effort to use the indicators.
Just step back for a moment and ask yourself if you truly use Indicator-X in your workflow every time you consider making a trade.
When do you take profit? Not using TA?
Using a certain percentage of the risk.
We take profits at 50% of POP or when only 21 days left to expiration.
@@tonybattista6335 POP?
Geez, price just goes up or down. I can't stand stock options traders who overcomplicate everything under the sun to sound smart. Options itself has got to be the most convoluted way of trading, compared to CFDs, where you literally just worry about a stop loss and take profit.
Great info,,thanks
I know of a "youtuber" who invests in zombie companies and crypto and This person uses NOTHING except TA. they pull out a trend line or Fib and start calling out "golden zones" where "the liquidity is at". It's safe to say this person is losing a lot of money along with his audience who follows his terrible advice. TA is a great tool, but it's a small piece of the puzzle depending on the overall strategy you're using.
Turn the royalty free music down ffs
Just my opinion, so take it with the block of salt it deserves… Some people are gifted at pattern recognition and technical analysis allows them to quantify and profit from it. For others, myself included, it is like looking at the clouds to find dragons and other creatures.
I see dead people lol
@@tonybattista6335 great movie 🍷😉
this has to be the longest way possible, to not say anything
charts help you define a good entry...
Tech analysis are the same as the deltas. IMHO Deltas are past price data and are just doing the math behind the technical lines.
4:45
People focusing on the video me focusing on whether he is boy or girl
7:19
TA can lead you to a dead end road
I have no idea who you are, but one word of advice, when you have guests on let them speak. Would have enjoyed your guests remarks who seem to have more experience in the market.
He's an employee of Tasty - a 'young gun', still wet behind the ears - but he's getting the best education available as directly as possible from the top options education platform (that is free to us all) @ tasty.. he did a great job -
Tony and Jamal were able to get their points across just fine. I don’t know who you are?!? You sound like a very angry person. You would have found fault no matter what.
What are you talking about lol
Clickbait title, garbage content. Take away = Be comfortable. It doesn’t matter. And oh by the way you totally left out the here’s what happened.
Try trading futures with this "you can't reliably predict direction" nonsense. You guys haven't looked at a chart closely enough. Lazy AF.
Try looking at randomly generated line charts. You'll see support and resistance and chart patterns in complete randomness. Pullbacks are never perfect, and sometimes they never even happen. It's just a byproduct of RNG pushing a random trend in a random direction in an imperfect way. It's astrology. If technical analysis had any real predictive power, then everyone would be rich, but that's not tha case, is it?
@@dee23gaming so many more factors go into this, you're overlooking people's psychology for example. I absolutely make money using technical analysis. The market isn't random as there are price points where players want to enter, and those points are fairly obvious
For investors in stocks Fundamental analysis is for selecting stock, Technical analysis is for good timing. The shorter time frame the less important is Fundamental A. As far as options, at least 50% of strategies are directional one way or the other so Tech.A. definitely helps. There are people who say that Technical Analysis is BS, but those are people who don't understand it...😜👍