Troilus Gold (TSX:TLG) - Multi-Decade Gold-Copper Mine with C$2B NPV Potential
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- Опубліковано 25 тра 2024
- Interview with Justin Reid, CEO of Troilus Gold Corp.
Our previous interview: www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/tr...
Recording date: 23rd May 2024
Troilus Gold Corp (TSX:TLG) offers investors a compelling opportunity to gain exposure to a large-scale, advanced-stage gold-copper project in the top-tier mining jurisdiction of Quebec, Canada. The company recently released a positive feasibility study on its wholly-owned Troilus project, outlining a robust 22-year mining operation with strong economics and free cash flow generation potential.
The study envisions a 50,000 tonne per day open pit mine producing an average gold production of 244,600 ounces, 17.3 million pounds of copper and 446,700 ounces of silver annually over a 22-year mine life. All-in sustaining costs are estimated at $1,148/oz AuEq, putting Troilus among the lower half of the industry cost curve. The initial capex of $1.08 billion is reasonable for a project of this scale, with a chunk of the costs already covered by existing infrastructure.
From an economic standpoint, the feasibility study delivers a base case after-tax NPV5% of $885 million and 14% IRR at $1,950/oz gold. While the IRR is on the low end, CEO Justin Reid argues that the market is undervaluing the true long-term cash flow potential of the asset. Over the life-of-mine, Troilus is estimated to generate a cumulative $2.2 billion in free cash flow at conservative gold prices and over $3.5 billion at spot prices, with annual FCF averaging $150-200 million. This FCF profile is very attractive for a company with a current market cap of just $150 million.
To fund mine construction, Troilus is pursuing multiple avenues including potentially bringing in a strategic partner, securing offtake and stream financing, and tapping debt from Quebec government institutions. Management believes they can raise a significant portion of the required capital while limiting equity dilution. They are already in active discussions with several interested parties.
The Troilus project benefits from its location in the Frotet-Evans greenstone belt, a prolific mining district that hosts several large gold and base metal deposits. As a past-producing mine, Troilus already has extensive infrastructure in place including power, roads, and a tailings facility. This reduces both capex and development risk.
Importantly, the current mine plan and economics are based on only about half of the project's 13 million ounce resource base. Management sees good potential to further expand the resource and extend the mine life through additional drilling, providing production and cash flow upside.
With a multi-decade production profile, substantial free cash flow generation potential, a strategic land package, and a depressed valuation, Troilus Gold offers a compelling risk-reward proposition for long-term investors out of its large-scale, low-cost mine to deliver significant returns to shareholders.
View Troilus Gold's company profile: www.cruxinvestor.com/companie...
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Guys, not sure what your problem is. I only hear complaints. TLG trades at 0.40 Can$ right now, its a STRONG BUY. Target prices give 400% potential and more. And if you bought before the FS at a higher price, first of all - it cant be that much higher, second - load up and average down. Despite the FS study everybody expected to be higher, Troilus is still a STRONG BUY. Its no rocket science.
10y LOM is a complete different story than 22. The 14% IRR is a bit misleading.
Very good thanks. I have been an investor here and am now down after the recent price collapse. How annoying. But kinda used to that - unlike uranium, just cannot find love in the gold market ; a bunch of mainly crap juniors that did absolutely nothing of value for shareholders; coys given away by management for free; and some producers (eg. NEM, BTG, SSRM ) that are total duds so far. All in all, fairly terrible performance, especially given where gold is.
Yep, the Good Book says always diversify your sectors and best to stick with the boring ETFs if not ready to do a lot of homework.....
ETFs will get you nowhere in the gold sector- you need to pick the real winners yourself because most are expected to be losers.
@@Plasmorbital "Most expected to be losers". Yep, you got that right. I pick the individual coys 'for fun' - like a visit to the casino. No idea why people invest seriously in the sector - so many easier ways to make money...
@@robertdagge200 It's the easiest way I know how to make money, but I've been a geologist for twenty years and learned a thing or two here or there.
I like this project quite a bit and I'm buying this dip to average down. The company is still in a very attractive place along the Lassonde Curve.
My exit is going to be more like 2026-2027 ish so these prices are still pretty good looking to me for an advanced brownfield project I'm reasonably certain will be built at an even higher gold price than today.
IF it does get built.... a major will wait to see the construction.... then maybe buy
By then, you will have missed nearly all the upside on the Lassonde Curve.
dirt work is the cheapest.... easiest to estimate.
PEA 4 years ago Capex 333million. It's now over a billion. Who did PEA? This isn't fast money exiting. This was a huge surprise.
14% IRR. Capex has tripled.
Compared to Artemis.... the numbers not even close
grade overall is terrible.... the CAPEX terrifying
At least he admits "a poor job" with we retail, but these numbers are still terrible. OK, I'm done and out.
I do not like the new numbers at all