👀 See what better financial charting can do for you! Start your FREE 1-month trial today at stockcharts.com 👍🏻 If you enjoyed this video be sure to hit the THUMBS UP ✅ If you found value, consider SUBSCRIBING to our channel and ring the bell so you never miss a new video! Subscribe Here: tinyurl.com/wvet7qj
I'm new to your video reports, but I'm on the same track you seem to be on. Again and again and again, the question of the economic cycle clouds my decision making. I believe this economic hodge-podge occurred because of the dramatic spending that happened during the pandemic, coupled with the extraordinary spending that followed. And when we consider the years of NIL interest rates and the seeming return to "normal" rates, I think this confusion could take several more years to clarify. IMHO, the Economic Cycle needs more time before it resembles a "normal" cycle again.
Thanks but I know I am and will be on the wrong side from time to time. Most important is how you deal with it and are open-minded enough to admit it to yourself ....
I'm of the opinion that the trend is my friend. Still making ATHs in SPY until it's not; and there've been pockets that've been super hot for swing trading (Uranium stocks and certain Biotechs come to mind)...That being said, I've learned over time the markets don't like instability or uncertainty, and it feels like this "bull market" is presently like a half-played Jenga game, waiting for the wrong block (catalyst) to be pulled.
The distortions are possible due to the rising trend of global investors and domestic retail investors piling into the US stock market, especially the index funds.
Re: Stages of the Economic Cycle ... What prompted the "Consumer Expectations" to be in the range of "Reviving" and "Rising"? I would have put this more to the right in the "Rising" and "Declining" range, more into the later.
But markets can go up on a lower volume and that's not unusual (especially on a daily timeframe). On the other hand, bears aren't stealthy, they have to show up with big volume to make a statement and signal that something is changing.
Go back and look at history, once the yield curve goes back to normal, within 6 months there is a recession and decline in the stock market. Keep that in mind over the next several months. Also, don't fight the Fed as the market continues to rise with lower rates. Finally, stay the course with your investments until price action turns down along with RSI and MACD. Ditto regarding the VIX rising and McClellan Oscillator falling below 0. Happy Trading!
Nobody is expecting to catch the market top . However, we are still in a uptrend on $SPX, higher highs and higher lows. Till we see lower lows and lower highs, the uptrend will continue. The SPX is expected to reach 6100 before we can expect a bear. The yield curve reinverted Aug 20-Sep 9, 2024. So approximately 6 months later givess us March 2025.
We are in the mid of bull market. Don't trust the sectors listed above the figure. The financial structures are changing, each sector itself has changed a lot.
That is true and I did some research on that a while (few years) ago to see if the sequence had changed. At that time I could not find any evidence of that despite the changed characteristics of some sectors.
It pains me to see Julius in such distress trying to fit the market into traditional models. Maybe we call it the Wile E. Coyote phase of the market. We are over the edge of the cliff, but we haven't looked down yet.
The only thing spinning here are RRGs ;) Sorry you feel like that, but let me try to be more clear for you. Do not buy "the market" at this point; it looks too risky to me. Instead search for opportunities in individual stocks (maybe industries) using relative strength combined with upward breaks in price. Better?
👀 See what better financial charting can do for you!
Start your FREE 1-month trial today at stockcharts.com
👍🏻 If you enjoyed this video be sure to hit the THUMBS UP
✅ If you found value, consider SUBSCRIBING to our channel and ring the bell so you never miss a new video! Subscribe Here: tinyurl.com/wvet7qj
Great job Julius! 👍 Love your 'FOMO Virus'... says a lot
Thx, it's a virus indeed ;)
I'm new to your video reports, but I'm on the same track you seem to be on. Again and again and again, the question of the economic cycle clouds my decision making. I believe this economic hodge-podge occurred because of the dramatic spending that happened during the pandemic, coupled with the extraordinary spending that followed. And when we consider the years of NIL interest rates and the seeming return to "normal" rates, I think this confusion could take several more years to clarify. IMHO, the Economic Cycle needs more time before it resembles a "normal" cycle again.
I like that view. But I hope it won't take multiple years .... 😇
Cautiously Dutch. My sentiments exactly. Would love to see the seasonal pull back to validate the next leg to 6000.
yep that would be idea scenario
Thanks for your insights! The only thing that’s obvious is that nothing is obvious.
You're welcome and indeed No certainties in finance !!
Sir without a doubt you were always right thanks
Thanks but I know I am and will be on the wrong side from time to time. Most important is how you deal with it and are open-minded enough to admit it to yourself ....
Thank you Julius!
you are very welcome
Thank you for your honesty. I share your cautiousness yet unfortunately tend to develop FOMO from time to time.
Same here, only human..... or so I think.
I'm of the opinion that the trend is my friend. Still making ATHs in SPY until it's not; and there've been pockets that've been super hot for swing trading (Uranium stocks and certain Biotechs come to mind)...That being said, I've learned over time the markets don't like instability or uncertainty, and it feels like this "bull market" is presently like a half-played Jenga game, waiting for the wrong block (catalyst) to be pulled.
Love the Jenga analogy. Thx now it is stuck in my mind ;)
Let's get Stovall on here to discuss. That should make for must-see market tv.
I cannot post a link here but search for "Timeless Knowledge and Insights into Sector Rotation & Seasonality | Sector Spotlight (12.12.23)"
The distortions are possible due to the rising trend of global investors and domestic retail investors piling into the US stock market, especially the index funds.
That could very well be the, or an, explanantion.
Re: Stages of the Economic Cycle ...
What prompted the "Consumer Expectations" to be in the range of "Reviving" and "Rising"?
I would have put this more to the right in the "Rising" and "Declining" range, more into the later.
Thank you. Discretionary trader vs. Technical trader. I'd wait for the bottom around Halloween time. GL
thx, gonna keep that in mind!
But markets can go up on a lower volume and that's not unusual (especially on a daily timeframe). On the other hand, bears aren't stealthy, they have to show up with big volume to make a statement and signal that something is changing.
I have always learned that "volume should increase in the direction of the trend"
Go back and look at history, once the yield curve goes back to normal, within 6 months there is a recession and decline in the stock market. Keep that in mind over the next several months. Also, don't fight the Fed as the market continues to rise with lower rates. Finally, stay the course with your investments until price action turns down along with RSI and MACD. Ditto regarding the VIX rising and McClellan Oscillator falling below 0. Happy Trading!
yep that yield curve move is on my radar!!
interesting!
Thx
University of Michigan are you kidding me ? That has not worked for decades as you can see there is no correlatoin to our markets.
Which metric would you suggest to use for that part of the model?
Nobody is expecting to catch the market top . However, we are still in a uptrend on $SPX, higher highs and higher lows. Till we see lower lows and lower highs, the uptrend will continue. The SPX is expected to reach 6100 before we can expect a bear. The yield curve reinverted Aug 20-Sep 9, 2024. So approximately 6 months later givess us March 2025.
SPY volume almost always rises on the decline on average.
That's why i am using $SPX and not the ETF tracking that index. These volumes not necessarily show the same patterns
🥳🥳✌️✌️
🤩
@@rrgresearch9726 🥳🥳🤩🤩🤩🫶🫶🫶
We are in the mid of bull market. Don't trust the sectors listed above the figure. The financial structures are changing, each sector itself has changed a lot.
That is true and I did some research on that a while (few years) ago to see if the sequence had changed. At that time I could not find any evidence of that despite the changed characteristics of some sectors.
It pains me to see Julius in such distress trying to fit the market into traditional models. Maybe we call it the Wile E. Coyote phase of the market. We are over the edge of the cliff, but we haven't looked down yet.
This guy speaks volumes of analysis….but never reaches a conclusion….he just spins his wheels…
To be fair, when the man is bullish, he's really bullish. In late 2023, he was pounding the table for bulls.
The only thing spinning here are RRGs ;) Sorry you feel like that, but let me try to be more clear for you. Do not buy "the market" at this point; it looks too risky to me. Instead search for opportunities in individual stocks (maybe industries) using relative strength combined with upward breaks in price. Better?