'Much worse than the 1970s': Historian Niall Ferguson has a warning for investors
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- Опубліковано 9 тра 2024
- Top historian Niall Ferguson warned Friday that the world is sleepwalking into an era of political and economic upheaval akin to the 1970s - only worse.
I wonder if people that experienced the 2008 crash had it easier because this market conditions are driving me to insanity, my portfolio has lost over $26500 this Nov. alone my profits are tanking and I'm don't see my retirement turning out well when I can't even grow my stagnant reserv.
@Abu.chowdhury I’m new to all this, heard it's a good time to buy and basically I've just got cash sitting duck in the bank and I’d really love to put it to good use seeing how inflation is at an all time-high, who is this coach that guides you, mind I look them up.
By portfolio I'm assuming you mean the "worth of your public stocks. If so, I would say focus more on the operational performance of the companies who represent those stocks than the paper value of the stock market.
Love economics because nobody really knows anything.
They know exactly what they are doing, The problem is some times people and revolutions get in the way only to start the process all over again.
First by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property.
Basically
Actually we're intentionally keeping you in the dark. But I wasn't supposed to tell you that.
Read my post above ... it takes a lot more work than the economists think.
Actually Niall Ferguson knows a lot more than most top economists. The reason? Economics is 1000 times more difficult than physics or chemistry.
I can envision double digit inflation. I’m 68 years old, I was a young family man trying to get my first mortgage back then (early ‘80’s). 9% adjustable mortgage, that jumped up twice into double digits. It took us years and years to recover from that. The upside was that we learned to live frugally. That is really important. Really. Learn to cook at home, drastically reduce dependence on restaurant food. Drugs, gambling…… really? Plenty of other ways to have fun. Find a reasonably priced fitness place, convenient to where you live, and exercise on a regular basis. Oh…. Here’s the key. Either don’t get married, or, find the right mate and DON’T get divorced. Invest in sensible ETF’s and diversify. Many of the personal finance sites I read stress buying and holding rental properties. Might be good, but I have seen and heard so many nightmare stories. That’s enough….good luck.
Haha divorce - that one falls under go woke and go broke
I am already learning to live frugally😅 no takeouts, picking cheap brands for home, etc I hope it doesn’t get too bad though. And though i am a girl, i am not planning on having kids. Don’t want to end up not knowing how to feed a kid. I guess the white demographic part of the planet is going to shrink even more.
Tommy. Great post.
🎉 but some drugs are medication and can improve your life in all measurable outcomes
@@quaidcarlobulloch9300we will have to switch from the daily cocaine to Adderall/Ritalin for some time 😡
It is gone, we lived through the zenith of our time.The corrupt government will take down this country like what happened to Rome. My condolence for anyone approaching retirement you may have concerns over whether your pension pot will stretch to cover the rising costs of living. Bad energy policy, bad foreign policy, bad regulatory policy , and insane fiscal policy.
50 and retiring early. I'm really concerned abt the future in all aspects of where we all going, in this breath finances ; how to stay afloat. I'm thinking about investing for the first time in the capital-market but how can i achieve all that given that the market has being a mess most of the year?
@@TruckeeFam I can relate to that on firsthand. I began with "THERESA MARY CHAMBLEE" whom is a fiduciary financial-advisor and my gains were guaranteed. In such instances, I would always recommend hiring an expert to guide you through unpredictable markets and simply provide you with indicators and tactics for determining when to join and exit the market.
@@MIchaelGuzman737 Please how can i reckon with such skillset? I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings, putting it to work because its getting killed due to inflation
@@Americanpatriot723 You can glance her name up on the internet .she's renowned and has quite a following. So it shouldn't be a hassle finding her
@@MIchaelGuzman737 Theresa really seem to know her stuff. I found her online-page, read through her resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. She is a fiduciary who will act in my best interest. So, I booked a session with her.
If I may add a slightly pessimistic note; it seems to me that quite often throughout history, politicians have distracted populations from internal unrest and mistrust of government, by getting into “good little wars” and everyone is either “with us or with them”. A distraction from problems that are very often created by their own politicians actions. And during war, privations and currency correction, can be addressed with impunity
You stole my name
This is 100% accurate. The reason behind all this China talk is the distraction. Unfortunately ordinary people don't seem to see through the fog to realize that it's our own politicians policies that got us where we are right now.
what you are saying is the sad truth ... Putin over estimate his ability to take Ukraine and Biden want this war for his political believes (righteousness) ... no one wanted the peace ... except for those living in Ukraine (not the politicians).
Oh, it’s that on quantum steroids at this point. Buckle up
Have you thought that maybe it’s the internal unrest and distrust that causes the wars rather than vice versa?
Heading for recession the UK has been in one for 6 months. Great interview and he is spot on
No matter how bad things get, Davos men and women will always be sitting in nice settings, eating good food and either making plans for the rest of us or being interviewed about those that do.
Yep, the likes of you & I would not get a seat in front of that beautiful lake😋
A good summary of my feelings
and Jackson Hole
And flying in and out in their private jets and preaching about the climate.
Transfer of wealth usually occur during market crash, I've been looking up strategies and apparently both bull and bear market condition provides equal avenue to accrue massive gains, and a news article particularly mentioned a 54 year old that made $280k in 8weeks, how do I learn these strategies, my portfolio has been stagnant for months.
You have to get a financial-advisor/broker to aid you diversify your portfolios to include commodities, inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, as opposed to growth stocks where valuations were based on future potential earnings,
@@joshspring7686 Had a good run during my first year in the fin-market, I assumed I had a hang on it. However, things changed during the pandemic, and I needed to diversify into safe assets, so I approached a coach who devised a structure that matched my goals, and in my first year working with her, I made a whopping $695k,
which I hope to scale to a million before the end of the third quarter.
@@miawhitlock9140 that's impressive!, I could really use the expertise of this advisors , my portfolio has been down bad....who’s the person guiding you?
@@pigsbark4173 credits to Jessica Meador Jones, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up.
@@miawhitlock9140 I curiously looked Jessica Meador Jones online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals.
If they went back to calculating inflation the way they did in the 70s we would be at double digit inflation now
Easy
Yes, someone said it would be about 12%.
Yep.
@@aliasoma If you go to Shadowstats, they use the government's pre-1998 CPI. They have it at about 14%. That matches my experience more than the govt's current bullshit numberm
Today's 10% inflation in the UK would be closer to 18% by 1970s calculations.
Lies, damned lies and statistics etc.
In 2009 Warren Buffet was saying that we will have inflation worse than 1970's.He also was saying about US bankruptcy
Wonderful discussion but we must NEVER interrupt such a guest like this one. Let him stay on his subject and continue to talk and teach us. Thank you. A great program and otherwise a good interviewer. RS. Canada
This is all by design. Welcome to the Great Reset.
It would have been nice to see him interrupted and asked to address points like the fact the interest rates are now no where near what they were prior to the crisis in '73, we are coming off a decade of near zero inflation and are still below the inflation trendline from 2000-2008 even after the recent inflation, oil prices are below what they were prior to the invasion, and that the US is now an oil exporter and the largest world producer.
@@shivasrightfoot2374 Absolutely right! Americans learned from Paul Volker not to be like Arthur Burns. Inflation was deliberately stoked by the worst Fed Chair ever, Jerome Powell, who doesn't even have an economics degree. If Putler uses nukes everything is going to change anyway.
How about we measure inflation now the same way we did in the 70’s? If we did, we would already be at 14-18%…
No we have expenses like Netflix, home wifi, meal kit subscriptions, etc. So the way to measure HAS to change - it can not stay the same and still be relevant.
@@failedfishermanBC huh? They still had food, gas, and homes, etc. in the 70’s. If we take housing alone, we no longer factor in home prices in the cpi !? Instead we use owners equivalent rent, which is a highly underreported number due to the way they survey rent and it makes up a full 33% of the inflation number. If we used actual home sales and accurate rent increases, we would be at double digits alone. This doesn’t even factor in the other ways the current measures understate current inflation vs. 70’s measures.
This appears to be a talking point that people of a particular persuasion are encouraged to post.
This is the best interview I saw this year. Both the host and guest are superb. Thank you.
The host and the guest ??? the view is superb 👌
Excellent valuable discussion...
We are already in the big crash, Inflation is a catastrophe. To bring the stock market to a halt, the FED will have to pull all the stops. The unfortunate issue is that other markets are being decimated. If you want to stay green, you have to rely on a lot of diversification. Currently up 14% and being careful. Still a better deal than leaving it in a savings or checking account yielding 0-1 percent interest.
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
@@carter3294 You are right! I diversified my $100K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment advisor, I have been able to generate a little bit above $300k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds during this red season.
@@viviangall1786 How can I contact this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach how good is this person at portfolio diversification, particularly with regard to digital assets?
@@Steyne968 My advisor is ’Nicole Ann Sabin’ In terms of portfolio diversity, she's a genius. You can glance her name up on the internet and verify her yourself, she has years of financial market experience.
If you want real certainty -DON'T TRUST SOURCES CLAIMING OUTSTANDING RESULTS ON SOCIAL MEDIA!!!!
Spambots create threads faking popularity! Don't trust any financial advisor that isn't registered with legal authorities in your country!!!!
He’s the guy that tells you what happens after it happens. He doesn’t know what’s going to happen anymore more the anyone else.
If only we had more that told us "what happened" after it happened! 😐
Wasn't he one of the few that warned about 08-09 financial crisis?
Why are these guys constantly taking China’s side instead of America’s re an independent country, Taiwan? Just like when Russia thought it could just walk into Ukraine, the West needs to protect independent nations that are targeted by dictators like Xi and Putin.
@@jctai100 yeah probably after it started. Economic cycles are going to happen, so all you have to do is take side and wait and eventually you will be right. 😂
@@shayjohnson5830 🤣
Not just what he mentions, but the energy crisis (because most Eu nations can't meet the load demand by their own production). The electricity prices are skyrocketing, ans not just because of speculations, but real reasons (the changed weather and dimmer heat accounts for pretty empty water reservoirs).
This (if nothing else) will push the Eu in recession.
Chinese construction bubble just popped and will, due to the size of the country, spread to other countries.
Great interview. More of Niall Ferguson please
Hero ?
Can we do another episodes on how accurate experts have been before and after COVID-19? thank you.
Graham Addison? What book did they talk about at minute 11+
A brilliant analysis by Niall Ferguson. The factors underlying the current economic crisis are qualitatively quite different from former configurations, and it makes no sense to think that applying remedies that have resolved the situation in the past will be applicable to the current situation.
In particular, in the present circumstance am not convinced that the FED's current policy of raising interest rates will be effective in reducing inflation, but will instead contribute to spiraling it upward.
If the only tool you know of is a hammer, and the only possible thing you know to do with a hammer is to pound nails down, then everything becomes a nail.
Perhaps economists should become aware that all hammers are not sledge hammers and that many hammers come with a claw end that can be used for extracting nails, and they should start looking for how to use this other end of the hammer.
I think he is very wrong. Niall Ferguson does not understand the geopolitics of Asia, he is not aware that if Taiwan falls to China, Japan and Korea are now split off from the rest of Asia, they will have no access to Australia, New Zealand and the rest of SE Asia. China wants to force nations to it's side and create a new world order where they dominate nations in their sphere, if Taiwan falls China wins so the USA cannot and will not surrender Taiwan it's Taiwan or nothing. This is not about the USA changing policies form the 1970s it is about a situation where if Taiwan falls to China, Asia then falls to China. It's as simple as that.
Taiwan can not "fall" to China. Taiwan is, has been, and will remain a part of China.
Unlike the US hegemonic agenda, China has no expansionist interest in dominating Japan, New Zealand, or the rest of SE Asia.
The higher level of debt is DEFLATIONARY. If inflation grows, the value of that debt declines. The decline was inconsequential in the 1970s, but it is huge today.
Inflation makes debt *easier* to service. Higher level of government debt in particular creates the *impetus* for inflation. Governments want the inflation because they can always tax a percentage of nominal GDP to service the debt - the bigger the nominal GDP (regardless if there's any real growth) the better.
@@r64g, that was true in the 1970s, and while it is still true, there's a difference now. There is much more debt now than there was. When inflation rises, the value of that debt declines, reducing the money supply. That, by definition, is deflationary.
@@johncarder819 By this flawed logic, the government can simply add debt to 1000% GDP and spend our way into economic nirvana without ever having to worry about inflation. Why hasn't anyone done it already?
@@r64g like Zimbabwe
Where is the location the interview taking place?
the seventies were wonderful, a big change in attitudes with the objective of freedom in many ways I hope this one turns out as well :-) Tony
He’s not pretentious or arrogant he’s telling the truth it’s going to get much worse.
HAHA...any of us could have said that. As if no one knows, already!
Of course it is. Absolutely 100% certain. You watch !!!
Long overdue for a significant correction.
Long overdue for a significant correction.
Look how much money has been brought into existence in the last few years, of course it will get much much worst
Finally, someone telling the truth instead of lying.
How do you know?
NF always tells us how bad things really are or going to get. Start storing tinned food and dry goods and buy lots of water!
@@grip2617 How do you know, what you don't know?
He has been wrong so many times.
@@pakpala1 It doesn't matter if he is right or wrong. The process matters and the possibility at this point in history is a reasonable assumption. Impossible to always see the future clearly, but there are also points where the future is clear and other points when alternative history is possible. It might not be as bad as he mentions, but the things he says should be clearly considered. He is not making things up. I hate nothing more than historians giving up their inheritance from Thucydides and just making things up. Enough people in the news do that already.
Are they at Villa d'Este in Lake Como? Nice way to make us envious...
I was right. An elitist conference at Cernobbio. Although I like Ferguson's historical perspective
Where was this interview?
Niall appears to be talking sense, you only have to listen to what Michael Burry, Ray Dalio are saying by autumn when Europe and other countries around the world head into winter will feel the ripple affects of Russia turning off the gas supply this the war, unemployment, record high interest rates will all lead to global recession that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. The markets are governed by human sentiment and that never changes history proves as much. Could be wrong but history demonstrates this.
watch Jeremy Grantham's videos here on youtube.
Ray Dalio lost a lot of credibility with his "China is the future" stance
@@tde4792 Globalist thinking that led us into this disaster.
“Record high interest rates “? You must be very young….I remember rates north of 15% and I don’t see that happening any time soon….
@@dougm659 If you calculated inflation today the same way they calculated it in the early 1980's, inflation would be about 20%.
How is a fed funds rate of 2.25-2.5% going to slow inflation?
The stocks are all down 30-70 percent dont lookat the dow or nasdaq
Many growth stocks down 75-90%+
Thanks buddy
The consistent poorest state in USA is Mississippi. Economists,as reported in The Times,are now predicting the UK will be poorer,in terms of income and wealth in the broad sense. Furthermore 10% of the population hold nearly 50%of UK wealth,and wealth inequality increasing is about the only safe bet sadly…what a mess we have created
Curious as to where this interview was filmed.
I am almost certain, My guess this was done at the world economic forum held this past May 2022 in Davos Switzerland.
Niall Ferguson is an historian with excellent insights.
What a beautiful location ....
Beautiful location. Which one is it?
South Dakota!
@@markhoward9743 thx,.
He said it right on ...You cannot have fix inflation without a recession... same as you cannot fix a leaky pipe without turn off the water..patching it will only works for the short term.
What if it's supply side, and those factors are easing
Exactly, as he said Powell might be the reincarnation of Paul Volcker just made my day. ROFL
At the point we ALL are at, it's just prepare, if possible, for impact!
I favor a soft landing rather than tanking the economy into the ground
Common sense, a rare commodity. Unheard of in the absence of fathers!
His perspective on this matter is relevant to be sure.
Yeah totally ignoring all of the deflationary factors. Population decrease, globalization and artificial intelligence.
Is this in Montnegro???
WHERE IS THE LOCATION?
Ferguson is great. However, these are speculative predictions, we should take them seriously but not as Gospel.
COMPARE HIS WORDS to every Democrats projections and he looks like Nostradamus
@@cocorna3282
You mean because Nostradamus never made any useful accurate projections.
Stopped listening Fergusson as soon as i heard "my friend, Larry Summer" !
we are here in the very corupt circle of the Clinton, Obama, Klaus Schwab and Economic Forum, Great Reset (allowing the US NOT to pay back its enormus debt to other countries !) and One World Government...
All those have been the architects of our coming disaster !
@@didierdenice7456
Which conspiracy poison did you swallow?
I like him Niall Ferguson because he is telling the truths:) He has unbiased views! Hope more people on CNBC TV can talk about things like him.
@@minoan438 You are a very biased person:)
Great and very interesting. I Agree
where is the location?
Quite possibly Lake Como
Pretty.
Top 10 facts that the Federal Reserve & Central Banksters will never admit:
1) USA has a fiat currency.
2) Fiat currencies fail 100% on Earth.
3) Most fiat currencies fail at 30 years.
4) USA’s fiat currency is over 51 years.
5) Hyper-inflation is inevitable.
6) Currency debasement is inevitable.
7) Debasement = All cash worthless.
8) U.S. dollar = Leper w’ most fingers.
9) U.S. deficit is untenable.
10) U.S. currency debasement looming.
Wow, sounds so scary!! I'm going to buy crypto and gold. Those always do really well!!! Explain to us why the dollar is now the strongest currency in the world? Leave out the conspiracy theories and sloppy science.
@@Borat_Kazakh #8
@@Borat_Kazakh "we'll print as much money as we want and if you point out it's ridiculous you're a conspiracy theorist"
The worlds best economic business historian……
Great piece.. 👍 agree totally.
Where is this being filmed at??
The 1970's was a s...t time. Two gruesome recessions (1971-73 & 1977-78), 25,000 conscientious objectors forced to work for no pay as "volunteers" because hospitals refused to hire them, the gasoline shortage crisis of 1977-1978 and the freezing of wage buying-power entering its 10th year (1968-1978). And U.S. employers were gearing up to automate and outsource jobs leading to a 50-year long "Long, Slow Depression."
Pfffft your fibbing about the 1970s.
Perhaps if you lived in Greece
I do not recall any “conscientious objectors” being forced to work anywhere for no pay. Tough times indeed, but that part does not ring true.
@@tek6423
1970s were NOT TOUGH.
COMPARED to the low wage, pisspoor healthcare, the 70s were a GOLDEN AGE
Niall Ferguson is one of the trustworthy authorities that should be heeded. Many academics are full of themselves, but NF takes an honest and objective look at history and current events.
Hes a perma-bear. Him an Nourielle Roubini kept rambling the same doom outlook throughout the greatest amd longest bull market in american history. They lost all credibility long time ago.
Not really. He works for the Rich and says whatever they want. I remember him arguing for this Century being China’s century and couple of Years later he went back on his words after the backlash from that.
@@luckyluke1503 Thanks, you took the words out of my mouth, he's a sold out shill for people that invested Communist China and the elite that sold everyone out to turn China into the world's factory while his people (oligarches) collected most of the profits
I think I'm correct in saying that the world isn't actually producing much more than it was in the 1970s, but the only thing that's changed is the growing debt that's been attached to it.
Really, in many ways, the last 50 years have been a great swindle and I'm sure that history will come to see it that way in good time.
Yup. Allow the world population to increase, scam the wealth off the people and now eliminate the people…😡
One person's debt is someone elses asset. 75% of US debt is private sector savings (and no shortage of buyers). The current inflation is the supply shock. We did stop much of the world economy for covid - which is unprecedented. I have plumber friends who can't get 2inch abs elbows. Myself having run a print business for decades I'm seeing unprecedented shortages of paper. The ports are still backed up. Its like the shift to household goods from military after ww2, there was major inflation then too.
Oh and the world is producing far more than in the 70s. (I was around then too).
The world isn't producing much more than it did in the 1970's? Even the world population has more than doubled since then..... In the 1970's I didn't have a laptop, yes...the one I'm typing on, and that's just for starters....Were you around, then? Are you math challenged?
@@peterkratoska4524 Take a look at Macrotrends World GDP growth rate 1970 - 2022.
@@athena3865 Take a look at Macrotrends GDP Growth Rate 1970 - 2022.
Lake Como?
In a commercial environment when a borrower has more debt, and there is higher risk associated to the borrower, the lender raises rates to acknowledge the increased risk associated with the debt. In the last 15 years the govs have embarked on massive overspending and creating deficits and debts that are unserviceable, and throughout this 15 process of accumulating this unserviceable debt, the fed has reduced rates instead of raising rates. This has essentially fuelled and encouraged more unserviceable debt. The motive of creating unserviceable debt could be the introduction of cbdcs to offer a resolution to the ensuing mess.
I agree with everything you write, except that the main driver of creating unserviceable debt is the political class and their never-ending quest for more power and wealth. They are at the core of the fiscal and monetary systems, so they benefit the most from large infusions of cash. It's not surprising then they always make pitches to the general public, "if we don't spend an exorbitant amount to solve x problem now, we will be worse off in the distant future." They are so full of themselves, that many actually believe their own propaganda and have lost sight of their own greed. You can see the giddiness in their demeanor in the media when faced with a new "crisis" because it reinforces their sense of self-importance. The current inflation crisis can be traced back to early 2021 when the new government passed the "American Rescue" stimulus of trillions in new spending after the fundamentals of the economy had already recovered (I, and many others, had predicted it would cause inflation back then, but we were ignored by the political class). They have continued to push for trillions in new spending since because that is all they are programmed to do in the detached reality in which they have ensconced themselves.
Hi. Timothy. Yes there an be no doubt that the drivers of this debt fuelled situation is the desired wealth transfer to the globalists. The public think the money spending is necessary as the causes all seem virtuous. But under proper scrutiny these excess expenditures were not based on science or economics. And the resultant debt fuelled situation has just facilitated the wealth transfer by the old pump and dump strategy. Interesting times.
@@phils5650 Yes, agreed. But to your point, some of the smarter and more forward-thinking among the oligarchy see that their access to the gravy train under its current structure cannot continue indefinitely, they have therefore latched on to co-opting the most promising technology to "reset" the next iteration of the system for their own power/enrichment. It is a fundamentally parasitic approach, and one that will be difficult to thwart by the common masses (especially if the elites continue to succeed in dividing and subverting societies along the way).
Dear boys, please increase "compassion dynamics" leading to cooperative actions. It isn't ALL a competition, it isn't a game to beat everybody else. It's called "living together in harmony."
I like the background. Holiday home!
When you drop an apocalyptic statement and then you go to cool down on a peaceful beach for super rich
We just watched Don't Look Up, and just like the movie, our government says Don't Look Up, at the impending global event.
I thought the exact same. Rich fuckers in lovely suits telling us that we're stuffed and then it's off home in the super yacht for pre dinner drinks.
So....basically, we're screwed?
Bognor really is beautiful at this time of year isn't it.
1969 Hong Kong flu pandemic.
1971 US default on gold backed dollar.
1973 Vietnam war ends.
1974 Oil shock.
1981 Interest rates peak at 20%.
yep and after boom, boom and boom
1981 Aids explosion.
@@tomspeed3354 that’s over 10 years of price and geopolitical instability, not insignificant
Add the 1978 Iranian oil shock.
Niall Ferguson does not make accurate prophecies. He just brings up good points. This doesn't mean we may hit a cluster fuck. Just not the one he predicted.
When the Ukraine war started he said it would only last 10 weeks :)
I agree with you! Inflation is retreating.
Agreed 1000% , it's basically going to be the direct opposite of what he's saying which arguably could be just as bad till we sustain on our own two feet. The thing he's right about is there definitely will not be a soft landing.
Yeap
Historians have learned that they need to insinuate lots of disasters to hold a job. The alternative career path is "would you like fries with that?"
I wish I can paste my chart here but yeah market is tanking big time
Is that Italy on the background?
LEGEND
I see a lot of youngster investors in the comments that will get a big surprise with painful learning lesson. Too bad they didn't live through the 1966-1981 period to be able to capitalize on the massive correction about to happen.
yeah economy is the same as the in 1966….you had internet and e-commerce and mobile phones and self driving cars…
@@atmavictu2995 You're not understanding the regular falls & severe corrections of stock markets....that's why you will learn an important message the hard way. Your thinking is way-off-base: Advanced Technology (beyond 1966) has absolutely nothing to do with...and does not hold up a synthetic, inflated, bubble high P/E and propped-up market ripe for a super hard correction. Wall street (and myself) will happily take your money from the unknowing, unaware and you.
@Ian Well, said. I was actually very impressed at how much power (money) the millennium and young investors have....after the 20% market correction we had from Jan to June this year they actually bear bounced it all the back (up 15%) to only a 5% correction. While that could be the PPT being active... I believe there was some serious money coming back in with all the young investors using the same charting tools...to buy, buy , buy.
When you're buying stocks...it's good to check and see who the sellers might be...if it's JPM, Morgan Stanley and any/all the big stock holders unloading slowly...you really don't want to be buying using your charting tools showing green-go signals.
@@KnowstheFuture I have been hearing apocalyptic PermaBears for over 40 years now, you are all the same...meanwhile I have stocks that went up 30-40 folds. You should see a shrink, yours is a pathological psychological disease than can be cured.
@@atmavictu2995 lol, I'm not a apocalyptic permabear...I've calculated and can actually see a 60% stock market correction...then I'll get back in....simple as that.
Economists are like meteorologists. They're more wrong than right and nobody holds them accountable. Niall is a well spoken weatherman.
Niall is a guy that can't get enough of himself.
FYI - Ferguson here is no economist ... as much as he likes to pretend to be one. He is just a one man talk show - who likes to toot his own horn as much as possible. He is a "historian" ... note that he is not much of one ... a revisionist for the British empire (forgetting American got its independence from the BRITS)... but he got kicked out of UK and now he is sing the song for the "US Empire". In reality it is quite amazing how much Americans love his ideas ... while no one worth anything of value would not take him seriously.
@@titusp9488 This sounds very personal. Do you bear some kind of personal grudge? On the economy, the problem is way too much liquidity that central banks created. As for Taiwan, that's a guessing game. And although China may be experiencing problems, so is the USA, Europe and Asia generally.
@@titusp9488 Brilliantly silly remark. Where to start? Firstly, anyone a liberal disagree with is not by definition ‘ not to be taken seriously’. Ferguson is a highly credentialed historian (Oxford and Harvard) and has branched out into economic history. Secondly, as liberals are only capable of dealing with simple Manichaean dichotomies, they have no understanding of nuance: the British Empire had bad and good aspects - as many former colonies recognise. ‘Revisionist’ as used by you merely means that Ferguson doesn’t subscribe to the whole liberal narrative about empire. Next - he wasn’t ‘kicked out of the UK’. Your final sentence is risible sophomoric nonsense, translatable into ‘he writes things I fervently disagree with, so he is a nonentity’. Don’t you realise how puerile you sound?
@@michaelkolanis2032 , well don't know him personally but do stand against his imperialistic ideas. American soldiers died in defense of liberty and freedom not for imperialism / suppression of others.
The US is literally the largest oil producer of crude in the world now as well as a major exporter of crude. This is different from 1973. Increasing oil prices will also stimulate some sectors of the US economy, ones that have been especially neglected during COVID shutdowns (when energy producers had been delaying maintenance and repairs due to incredibly low oil prices). The Arab producers participating in the 1973 strike currently account for about three times as much oil as produced by Russia. In 1973 these Arab countries would have had an even higher proportion of oil production. Immediately upon the start of the embargo in 1973 oil increased in price by 150% and eventually increased 460%; in comparison oil increased about 33% after the start of the Ukraine conflict at its absolute height but has since August 31 been trading below prices on February 23, being currently about 15% cheaper than immediately before the conflict; oil prices today are almost exactly what they were three years ago in September 2019 prior to COVID.
Inflation is still below trend from prior to the 2008 financial crisis despite the recent uptick. We are coming off a decade of near zero inflation. In the 1970s we had just quit the gold standard and had been plagued by inflation for years. Interest rates on 10-yeat T-bills were near 7% in Dec 1973 on the eve of crisis, they were 2% on the eve of the Ukraine invasion. Furthermore, the fall in house prices is not accounted for in CPI inflation data but does represent a significant disinflationary pressure.
I would take a bet against Niall's position here.
Debt levels much higher than 70s.
If it is worse than 1970s, I rather be the US than any other country. The dollar is reaching all level high compared to everything else. The US will outbid any other seller on essentials (if they are able to export it to the US) and everyone else will have to fight for whats left.
But what will the US offer if knowone wants dollars anymore. Because you won't be able to buy anything with them because the US don't produce anything.
A lot of inflation is supply side. Reduce supply, demand too high, price goes up....this is the energy crisis and the supply issues from China being in covid lockdowns. Raising interest rates would be catastrophic in this situation.
You can’t blame supply for inflation because supply cannot be changed by policy in the short term. Demand managers have a duty to lower demand to match supply. Interest rates must be raised.
@@akp167 Mickey Mouse economics.
Most people do not care where their money work when they sleep, so why would they think about '70s? Your briliant book Mr. Ferguson is teaching about a crucial shortage in education in field of history when we think about those highly payd quark matematicians. So even more likely similar behavior can be awaited in case of a nominal politician or businesman.
Where was this shot? I really can't imagine a place like this in the US.
Lake Como in Italy
It is fairly simple, of every dollar printed 95 cents went straight into non value excessive market ballooning. The economy will stay out of balance until the excess dollars are backed by real value or taken out of the system.
I think when you take the Federal reserve requirement from 10% as it was for a long ever, down to 3% and now 0% as the credit Masters create credit and then sell it on Wall Street so that they can create some more with nothing behind it. A 10% deposit requirement on $10,000 creates $100,000 of credit potential. It's 3% deposit requirement creates 5 million dollars worth of credit potential. And if it's a zero percent deposit requirement you can create all the credit you can create if you can sell it, and buy the whole neighborhood with borrowed cash as I save $10,000 struggling to come up with a down payment. And that interest that never lets you pay off the debt because you're paying it with borrowed money and you have to borrow more money to pay what you borrowed because it's all borrowed. And if you get rid of the excess dollars there's no dollars to cover the debt, the interest. When the interest owed is more than the principal owed, complete bankruptcy will be at hand, unless more credit is created to cover the payments of just the interest which was incomplete and doesn't touch the principal which continues to grow. The way money is created, perhaps even the barons ought to fear.
@@zAlaska Cheers. That is well worded. Fiat Money introduced as dept and fractional reserve banking. The tools to let the masters take it all.
Its the biggest heist in history.
@@ronaldronald8819 how many millions of dollars is your $40,000 home worth? Take the money and what are you left with? A dime that won't even buy a cigarette.
@@ronaldronald8819 I have been saving this hundred dollars to buy gasoline for over a year. During this time an additional $10 for my dollar and every dollar has appeared, seemingly out of nowhere. There's 10 times more dollars available to spend just like cash. Why is the price of gasoline gone up everywhere and why is the price coming down in America and skyrocketing everywhere? I've been managing your retirement and only charging 2%. Watch it grow and I'll only charge you 2% compounded every year and I get 2/3 of the profits by the time you retire because I charged 2%, which one using bankers math is only 2/3 of the profit. How much does your investor charge?
Inflation is actually above 16% in America. They just don’t look at Inflation the way they used to like in 1970’s.
J(r)oes, colored glasses?
Professor Ferguson,
Did you receive my tweet from early this summer?
Sincerely,
R.W.N II
what an insightful clip...watch out folks!
70s were great for gold, real estate, and oil, the new oil is lithium refining
Our vaccines don't work either, and our elderly have unfortunately been vaccinated! 😐
Thanks, now I won't comment on the same hoax.
Notice how the semantics is changing. There's a lot of explaining that needs to be done (gradually)! 😐
History repeats itself
Wish they would have given a link to the book discussed.... my favorite CNBC commentator and Porsche enthusiast
He thinks they're heading for a recession in Europe. I wonder how he figured that one out. lol
Can't do a Volker with global debt levels so high. Roubini stated its delusional to expect a recession that is not severe.
Exactly.
I’m surprised anyone listens to Nial Ferguson given his track record
is that lake como
Just a backdrop, kinda fake it till you make it attitude from these two loosers
So we headin’ into Cold War 2…
Not trying to sound inflammatory but I've thought this and kind of realized that we've been in a currency war here for a while... and now Janet Yellen wants to price cap russian oil....
We've never come out of the first one.
When I saw the title referring to "an historian making a financial analysis"....
I immediately concluded that this guy is probably a Brit...
Britons with the most amplified RP accents often massively overestimate themselves, their skills, competences....and the power and importance of their country...
At one point we will have a harsh recession, and in fact a recession has already started ...
no big prediction...
Want financial advices? you better listen to the folks who made billions in finance, Tudor jones, Buffet, Munger and many others ... not the talking heads who write in financial newspapers.
The same guy wrote a book stating that Britain should not have entered WW1. He ignore that had Germany won WW1 and taken over Europe, Britain would have been the next domino to fall soon or later. That is exactly why the pre-ww1 British government decided to enter the war, oh surprise... Ferguson thinks that he is more clever than they were.
I don’t think you understand WW1. Perhaps you need to go look at it again. Germany did not start it and were not the main belligerent.
@@thomasdooley5904 "Germany did not start ww1"!!!!
"Germany was not the main Belligerant" !!!!
You must have been sleeping very deeply during your history classes...
@@BStrapper The slav's started it and they might well start another...
My ancestor was a bodyguard to a certain Austrian Noble in Sarajevo in the summer of 2014. Could his failure to protect this Royal heir have anything to do with the start of The Great War? Oopsies.)
@@Orson2u The Habsburgs weren't that bothered by the assassination of Franz as he shit the bed by marrying beneath his station but the serbs would not let the Austrian police join in the official investigation which was a political sleight that could not go unanswered.
Does anybody really know what time it is? This is just a list of stuff.
Recession and meanwhile the economist prognosticates from Lake Como
The parallels of the 2020s to the 1970s is alarming. Ferguson and Sacks have some interesting ideas.
the more like the Weimar Republic and ultra inflation. We are going to buy food with cases of dollars.
@@raoulhery
Better start prepping, dude. The zombies are coming out soon too!! Get plenty of AR-15s, ammo, and dried food. I would suggest living in your basement now!!
Relax folks Brandons at the wheel.
He's slowly swerving us out of the lane
...at least he knows proper English. No wonder you like Trump.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003 We Support an Alfa Male, he's a Lion. Jojo MaGoo was installed like a Toilet on Pennsylvania Avenue. There's no stopping US. With or without Trump the MAGAGENDA Platform will continue, simple as that!
*¡watched at 2:30 pm Pacific DayLight Savings Time on Friday, 2 September 2022!*
Fed talks differently than have acted, hence the stickier inflation. Fed has been talking and talking and that’s it.
The Fed needs to normalize rates. They must unload trillions of treasuries and MBS off their balance sheet. The dollars received from the sell must be extinguished.
The current economic state is closer to the 1940's than the 1970's.
I feel more like 1930s (China in particular is bursting after lots of crazy growth) and we seem to be headed to war with Russia/China as the equivalent of Germany/Japan... vs the democratic states of Western Europe/UK/Japan/USA/Aus/Taiwan etc
Why inteterupt? 10:50
It’s not necessary that Ferguson is correct. Smart planners look at three scenarios and hedge their strategy for all three scenarios rather than place one scenario and place all bets on that strategy. The payoff could be great but also devastating.
The lasting corner stone of any human society is truth. A relationship with this perfect perpendicular, truth, is the constant each human being shares.
A lot of folks are trying to get paid. Fear sells! Like someone said below, economists don't have crystal balls.
Its worth noting that US population grew 100 million plus since the 1970s consuming off of same resources albert with improved technology so cant be comparing to 1970! In addition, with China essentially shut down, war in Ukraine disrupting food supplies - its unfathomable to think prices won't go up so until those issues resolve, no amount of interest rate hikes will suddenly bring prices down unless we're saying folks should stop eating, traveling or doing anything?? All these folks theorizing about ungodly rate increases should face reality. The transit inflation caued by supply shock and war cant just be switched off like a water tap! Folks need to give it time to resolve itself.. When you squeeze the economy with insane rate hikes that really only crashes the market the only folks that suffer are the masses which is whats about to happen. The high earners and high net worth folks won't feel a dime. They're still going to do whatever they want to do.. and will buy up more stuff (stocks real estate, cars, travel, eat caviar etc). Companies will layoff en mass and the executives will pad their benefits packages with the "savings" - you just watch!
The Fed is already sucking up all liquidity form our pockets.. most folks have lost way more than they got from the govt during covid either in the retirement or investment accounts and its clear the Fed actions to date is doing its job but for the most part not going to be effective in bringing food prices down. May help with real estate prices but that really about it. Supply shock relief and Ukraine war ending is where efforts should be placed. Increased productivity in the US as well and minimizing reliance on other countries not killing the US jobs market should be paramount as well!
I'm not an econmist so... but I don't think you need to be one to see what the issues are.
What is Niall Ferguson's accuracy when predicting things? Better than Krugman?
Krugman predicted 2008 crisis; he said that the internet would not cause a great increase in productivity. When he is not tarting for Democrats, he is considered the best economist alive.
krugman ahahaahhshaha
@@atmavictu2995 So you are one of those believers that the internet is making everyone rich. Glad to meet you! (LMAO)
@@rlkinnard - Remember the annoying guy at thee pool, early in the movie “the Graduate}p”? “Plastics.” That’s what he recommended. Today it’s autonomous driving every vehicles. (And this would be impossible without the Internet.)
@@Orson2u I think that AI is the reason for the the possibility of autonomous driving plus GPS. I think that cameras could work without the internet. And I would pay 100K for a safe, autonomous driving vehicle and cannot find one.
Does this dojo mean a lognormal distribution?
It's interesting that Taiwan is currently important for its chip manufacturing so that neither the US nor China can tolerate the other party having full control of it. Although it appears that China is moving towards independence on that front.
Anyway, as far as I know of it, the US military doesn't think that Taiwan can be defended. So provoking the Chinese on that subject is just dumb.
There's no real good in treating China as an enemy anyway. Trying to hold onto power by keeping others down is a dangerous long term strategy... Always better to invest more in self improvement. Plus, assuming that the US did end up weaker than China some day, enmity would hardly have been a good thing to set up before that kind of future.
As it is, we really need to work together internationally, to get the global economy moving back onto the right track... Preferably think less in terms of "countries" and more in terms of "what benefits people and humanity".
Take the Ukraine war for example: Is there a commitment to the welfare of the Ukrainian people, or is it about "defeating Russia"? The way it's going, Ukraine could end up another Afghanistan... Because we don't truly think about people when determing our goals.
Sanctions and giving Ukraine weapons aren't really a way to fasttrack peace and stability in that region. The sanctions may not even really be hurting Russia all that much vs the harm they're doing elsewhere (strange as that is)
As a person from Taiwan, 24 million Taiwanese just want to be left alone and not invaded by China. China defines what is a PROVOCATION. and China keeps changing the criteria. If you want to believe in what China wants, you are simply stupid.
Unlike Afghanistan, I think the people in Ukraine are benefiting hugely from US help. I suspect most Ukrainians would choose the path of fighting back and pushing Russia out.
Peace in the region is not an option on the table, not in the short term. The atrocities committed by Russia so far make that clear.
The only “peace and stability” that Ukraine will see if Russia is not stopped is the peace of the grave, as the documented mass atrocities carried out by Russian forces and Russia’s own genocidal anti-Ukrainian rhetoric make clear. Giving control over the world’s energy, food, and fertilizer supplies to a regime that has shown itself to be a ravenous imperialist power with a clear list of planned future conquests would be utterly irresponsible. The price of resisting Russia today is far lower than it would be after another five or ten years of appeasement.
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