Will the Housing Bubble Burst?
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- Опубліковано 27 вер 2024
- What's causing the steep rise in housing prices? And when will it end?
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The video never answers the question "will the housing bubble bursts" it does a good job explaining WHY there is a housing bubble though.
It does a fair job of implying the answer. "Based on current economic pressures, no. And the pressures will likely be there for about a decade."
There might a slow down in 2022-2023 with China's real estate bubble popping as we speak. It won't have drastic affects on the US but will slow things down (economy as a whole).
Long term, I do see prices coming down... just not in our lifetimes. The price is heavily influenced by demand, demand is largely based around population size (more people = more demand). The US and the general world population is expected to plateau (and begin to slightly decrease) around 2100.
I think they omit the answer on purpose cause no truly actually knows. We’ve never been a situation like this ever.
Say bubble enough times and like a broken clock it'll be right someday.
I hate these click bait videos that do absolutely nothing.
Exactly.
Welcome to Seattle. Where single family homes cost $1,000,000 and the owners complain about the homeless camps, many of whom actually have jobs but can't find a place to rent that they can afford
Then stop burning the houses down. Stop raising taxes and any regulation possible on home builders at every turn. Your businesses can’t escape the west coast fast enough. Just ask Tesla and Oracle
Same in nyc, employed homeless people
I reckon that tents, RV's, etc should be legal as long us they are not messy.
@@WD00777 lmao no one is burning homes don't talk bs . 2) the places where there is no regulation on housing like Texas the situation much worse
Then move or stop reproducing. It’s simple supply and demand. Too many ppl, not enough homes.
The way America is going about housing seems unsustainable to say the least. Housing prices are outpacing wage increases and the housing market is driving up rental prices as well. Something has to give eventually.
Wages have been stagnant since the 70s
The rich want low taxes, high property values and unlimited low wage labor to serve all their needs. So yeah, something has to give, it's unsustainable.
@@BenjaminRodriguezReyes We need more immigrants. Not every country is lucky enough to have mass amounts of skilled laborers fighting to get in.
@@nws6146 is this supposed to be sarcastic?
Ya THINK!? Ya suppose they want us to "own nothing", and just "be happy" that way?
You didn’t mention the impact of investors buying up houses to rent.
It costs more to rent than to pay mortgage currently. Apartments and rentals will get hit very hard by the next bubble burst.
There'll not be bubble burst. And the worst of all is, if there's a bubble burst, they'll just inject more money to the economy, like it's been done during the pandemic
As long these foreigners investors are allowed to buy , it’ll never burst
You mean corporate businesses..
Yeah "not enough houses to go around" doesn't really fit with the statistics that show there are in fact enough homes to house people but people can just buy out more than one property
I bought my house in suburban Atlanta in 1997 for just under 100K. By 2008, I was receiving offers for $300K to sell and by 2010 it was down to $50K. I had some fool call to offer me $400K to sell just today...pretty sure there's another bust coming and it's gonna be a doozy.
I feel it too. People keep saying it's demand, problem is, wages haven't gone up much since 2008 when the last bubble hit, but the prices are higher than back then. I call shenanigans.
Your the fool for not selling it
@@johnbenedetto3096 To go where? I'm 15 min from work by car, which is priceless here. The closer houses are in the millions and the cheaper houses are hours away. My house is not a commodity. It's where I keep my stuff.
@@claressalucas8922 if you are happy where you are then stay. Don't listen to what people tell you. Even if you sell it for 300k your capital gains tax will be outrageous and the housing market is insanely high. All that money will be evaporated into another home which will probably be the same size as the one you are in. Except now you gotta deal with the headache of moving. The only way i see it being beneficial is if you sell for 300k then wait until the market crash, then buy for 150k. Other than that I don't see the benefit
@@claressalucas8922 well said. I also live in Atlanta. Marietta specifically. Just curious which part of Atlanta did you buy your house for a 100k in 1997?
I applied for so many plumbing jobs and I got only a few calls back and they weren't overly interested. American trade workers/companies don't want to teach the younger generation.
That's why you go union. Trade unions teach you through schooling and apprenticeships, and offer better wages
I feel that Ive read that trade work despite what people say has always been more cutthroat competitive for like a couple of decades.
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Dude, if you're having trouble finding a plumbing job, you're doing something wrong on your end
@@blackspiderman1887 No he's not. To get a job as an electrician I had to straight up lie on my resume, because they wouldn't even acknowledge me unless I had 4 years or more of experience. A lot of these trades are run by old asshole boomers that think youngins are trash unless they have a golden child that was brought into the business by a relative and trained through them like this is medieval times. It didn't matter that I had passed the test with flying colors and could speak to my knowledge on the subject and was in my 20's with a clean bill of health. After getting the job and seeing most of them actually sucked at being electricians anyway with them basically fumbling through stuff I eventually decided to switch trades into pesticide and finally aquatic herbicide used to treat green algae blooms in lakes to stop fish death. I've never been happier, I got one boss who works in a lab and I see him once a week. Other then that he texts/calls me to give me updates and I go out into the local lakes taking samples and occasionally killing off algae.
Why did I expect that this video would make me feel better...
I know... I felt bad at the start (wanted and could buy a house this year, but the market is impossible), but now I'm left feeling even worse... the United States needs real help, and soon.
@@brentdennison176 Yep. I want to build but construction prices went up. Now in order to afford housing, my friend and I are going to try to buy one piece of land and build one primary house and one "guest" house (ADU) because thankfully they recently allowed granny flats in the past year
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At least they admitted it's white ppl being racist
Aries it’s actually white liberals. Those are blue states
I'm anticipating a housing crisis in order to buy cheaply after selling a few residences in 2022. I've been considering buying stocks as a fallback. What suggestions do you have for the ideal buying period? On the one hand, I keep reading about and witnessing weekly trading earnings of over $500,000. The market is allegedly out of control and having a dead cat bounce, on the other hand, according to what I keep hearing. What causes this to occur?
Most people are unable to handle a fall since they are accustomed to bull markets, but if you know where to look and how to get around, you can profit handsomely. It depends on your entry and exit strategy.
The fact that the US stock market had been on its longest bull run ever makes the widespread worry and enthusiasm understandable given that we are not used to such unstable markets. As you pointed out, it wasn't tough for me to earn over $780k in the last 10 months, so there are chances if you know where to go. I hired a portfolio advisor since I was aware that I needed a solid and trusted plan to survive these trying times.
@@oscarjiron6974 I tried looking into new strategies to profit in the current market because my portfolio has been in the dumps for the entire year, but everything I tried just seemed to miss the point. Please let us know who your financial advisor is by name.
@@AnthonyHart34 I've worked with several different investment advisors, but Sharon Lee Casey has so far shown to be the most knowledgeable and competent. You may look her up online by performing a name search because she has a sizable following.
@@oscarjiron6974 She has outstanding credentials and a commendable job, so I can see why she is so busy. I instantly copied Sharon's complete name and typed it into my browser as a result.
I'm surprised you guys didn't mention how Giants like black rock are also outbidding the regular folks left and right.
yes exactly. Most are out bid by real estate investment companies
Doubt they'd be critical of an economic system that allows it. Seems like most MSM ignores it too. I just see it blamed on Covid on local news.
That’s not actually happening
It is extremely difficult for large corporations to buy and renovate homes. If it was so great, banks would do it.
Donations to PBS probably.
Well blck rck has like over 10 trillion in assets and literally owns the biggest media companies in the world, maybe they don't want to get on their bad side? :/
"Hey, there's a bubble"
"How do you know?"
"Trust me. Call Vennett. Buy 50
million in swaps on the MBS."
Very informative video! However guys this seems to be more of a collection of info explaining how the bubble formed and not will or when it will burst or even “what to do” while it’s here. Still, very reasonable and collected argument.
Just jumped in to say when did they get those tattoos?
Very trashy tbh. Now I am far less inclined to take their advice 🤮
@@xunqianbaidu6917 I'm 30 😂
I just know trash when I see it 🚮
@@xunqianbaidu6917 Lol imagine being a grown adult and think calling someone a boomer is actuslly an insult......youre not even good at being a bully lmao. sit down
@@xunqianbaidu6917 I am in my 30's as well and those tattoos are hot garbage.
Not so much. Bubbles are irrational. By their own analysis, nothing about current real estate inflation is irrational, therefore this isn't a bubble. Trying to make this an issue of race was also extremely unprofessional of them too. Inflation doesn't discriminate against race, gender, religion, orientation, etc. Inflation only discriminates against the bottom 99%.
I finally reached a salary where I have disposable income and now the things I thought I would be buying at my age like a nice car and/or motorcycle are unaffordable at my level of disposable income. I know that's an incredibly privileged thing to say but, damn, my mid-life crisis is really gonna be uneventful.
Everything is very expensive right now---such as used cars are up 30% and new cars are up 10% since January. I'm hoping prices on a lot of things go back down.
Dude same happened to me. I'm still very fortunate but I finished engineering school, got a job. Last year I could afford a car and house. I literally just finished saving for my down payment and now I can't afford anything.
I saved up for years. Then COVID happens and house prices boom… looks like I’m living with mom for a few more years. :(
@@angelgjr1999 Houses in my neighborhood are up 50% since January. I feel like it has to crash as it's not sustainable at all. But who knows.
@@joeb1522 My house went from 150k in 2016 to 300k now… it’s insane.
What about investment firms buying homes over asking price as soon as they become for sale for their portfolios? We can’t compete with them to buy at a realistic level.
Investment firms have admitted in their investor newsletters that they count on slow construction and an artificially low supply of housing to keep prices up. It all boils down to exclusionary zoning.
You could compare that to the situation with PS5s and NVIDIA GPUs. Yeah, you can blame the scalpers, but the real problem is lack of supply. Blaming the scalpers will get you nowhere because there will always be scalpers and what the scalpers are doing isn't illegal, though terribly immoral. The fix is to increase supply, which, as described in the video, often encounters zoning issues.
the investment firms need to be banned from buying any property. limit landlords to 2 properties as there is a shortage and they are consuming too much.
Quiet! You’ll upset the corporate donors!
@@costaet meaning cheaper to build it ourselves. Lower construction costs.
Rn construction makes lots of money making lux homes. So best to undercut them
The video was informative but the title does not seem to fit the content..
Clickbait
"There just isn't enough housing to good around." Incorrect! There's lots of housing to go around, but they're all "luxury homes/apartments" that cost $3k/month to rent.
I never thought those two would even have a drop of INK on them lol.
Looks weird af
Yeah looks gross
Same lol
@@mm6461 bruh
The housing market is out of control because houses are an investment and not just a place to live. Do an episode on how Switzerland controlled its housing prices by giving renters rights, controlling rents and not encouraging everyone to buy real estate to get rich!
South Korea has a strange "market". The land is owned by the government, what you buy when you buy a house is like a 99year lease. But what they did to discourage this type of things is that you need to live in a home FIVE years before you can rent it. So you can't just go around buying property and renting it. I get that it looks very bad from the landlord perspective, but it assures at least there's housing available for people and that landlord's consider renting a long term game rather than accumulating property fast.
Sounds like an interesting idea! It may sound authoritarian but I say people shouldn't be able to owe more than 2 houses. Forcing the landlords with lots of properties to sell could lower the prices for people to get out of renting
@@gumerzambrano I agree with the sentiment. Think it through with the experts and do what is necessary to reduce home prices. I agree with the zoning issues though, we need to plan cities and societies that work better by building communities with business space right at the bottom of residential high rises.
@@EA-gv2ph Sounds interesting. It could be a potentially positive intervention for those who are at the mercy of the market. At that point, however, optics are terrible in a country that rejects big government. Thanks for telling me that though, I didn't know!
It's a much deeper issue. In a system where the gov't isn't tossing money left and right, it becomes a scarce resource which needs to be allocated correctly to beat opportunity costs. It says a lot more that we have a system where it appears better use of money to go all out on investment properties instead of funding genuine entrepreneurship. Our society is stagnant and housing being the go to investment is indicative of this.
I tried working from home as a Janitor but just ended up cleaning my own house.
This labor shortage stems from the student loan crisis. If everyone and their mom wasn’t constantly told they needed to take out student loans and get a 4 year degree to be successful then maybe more people would consider the trades.
I got 2 degrees. COMPLETELY FUCKING USELESS!!!
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They addressed the lower number of trades workers as a combination of people retiring and the lower demand of the previous decade.
If you want people to consider trades as a career, then expose them to it. My 800-student high school in Vermont had a vocational school that gave juniors and seniors the option to experience and train in a trade. It was also open to adults.
The general "labor shortage" is caused by businesses underpaying their workers. Unemployment is below 5%, aka "full employment". Businesses aren't competing against government welfare; they're competing against each other.
@@sonicpsycho13 businesses also have to compete against government jobs which are increasingly more common . . . which is terrible because any level of government forcibly collects its revenue rather than providing a service at a quality and price that customers would freely choose.
@@Firebert79TA Not necessarily. Public services are a necessity when the private sector fails to provide that service to a reasonable standard (cost, availability, etc). For example, firefighting used to be entirely private, and it was a disaster. If you didn't have fire insurance, they'd let your house burn. They'd also prioritize protecting wealthier houses and businesses.
The USPS provides service for everyone, not necessarily home delivery, but we consider the ability to receive mail for everyone a fundamental good. Private companies don't deliver to remote areas because it isn't cost effective for them to invest in the route.
and save the downpayment. There is NO bubble that could not to burst. Bubbles meant to be burst. That's why we call it a bubble.
I think some of the issues with housing is also people use it as their savings and primary investment. If it's a building wealth for the homeowner then it's making it unaffordable for the buyer or affordable to the buyer and no savings for the homeowner. It's a tough situation to manage
As a Canadian looking at America's housing market, I'd say you guys are way better off than us
I agree. I can't speak for Canada, but America isn't even experiencing a real estate bubble. These bozos are either lying or just incompetent.
@@costaet No they didn't. They repeatedly referred to current real estate inflation as a bubble. It's in their thumbnail. They proved it wasn't a bubble by accident because they're too stupid to understand what a bubble means. They obviously aren't saying there is no bubble when they repeatedly and unironically refer to it as a bubble. In order for them to say there isn't a bubble they would obviously require the vocabulary comprehension to understand what a bubble is in the first place, and just accidentally proving themselves wrong isn't a substitute for competence. You clearly lack the listening comprehension to understand that.
@@BuckROCKGROIN Dude don't skip your nap next time, you get very cranky XD
@@felipereigosa96 are you proud of that? Who hurt you?
@@BuckROCKGROIN Are you ok bro? You sound a bit defensive (because you are insulting people without good reason)
I’m giving up on Austin and moving elsewhere. I started making good money right as prices shot up. Luckily I have a skilled trade and can work somewhere houses don’t start at 600k.
Probably better that way. House rich, but cash poor is a real thing. I, also, am not interested in spending the next few decades toiling so that I can pay off a home.
That's 50k more then a house in Compton CA.
I have another option - buy a house you can't afford and rent out rooms. My wife and 3 kids did that in 2013 in the SF Bay area. We lived in the master bedroom and rented out the remaining rooms. We lived like goats for 2.5 years, after which we no longer needed the extra money. Living like animals is no fun but if you can suffer for 2.5 years then you will come out the other side thanking yourself as well as changing the financial direction of your family tree. I now teach my children that they should buy a house they can't afford in San Francisco and live in the laundry room or garage for a couple years.
Although I'm not a huge fan of Houston, housing is more affordable here. Conroe ain't bad either
@@addanametocontinue They artificially bring up house prices so you pay more property tax.
Yeah the market is crazy right now. Our family was looking for houses in the 350k range and to even be considered you had to be at least 20k over. One house we went to was listed as 350k and sold for 440k!! Apparently they had a sizeable portion of cash (possibly 50% or more) for that house. We did eventually get a house luckily, but its been rough.
What is your market?
What state and city?
Wow, lots of research went into this. Didn't realize all the moving cog of this issue. In Canadian cities, it's more the opposite of zoning laws in the USA. They keep paving over farmland for higher density dwellings or knocking down buildings to make condos. Problem is, still unaffordable for so many and no low-cost units are being put on the market or available for rental. There's even a wave of renovation by landlords who buy whole buildings, kick everyone out, renovate to only allow rich people to move back in. Kudos for not being afraid to mention it's mostly white people in charge.
Rezoning won't fix the issues lurking under the sruface. lots of people just keep saying that its the NIMB's that are at fault and it will all be fixed with rezoing.... but it won't. Real tired of that argument. People are buying more than they can chew, taking on too much debt, and those who are developing are getting far greedier with land as an investment and making things luxury dewllings only or just ping pong buying and selling the land for money keeping potental homeowners out. I love landlords.... most are good, but there is this shift to all people renting everything from cars, to technology, to dwellings rather than owning. They know that ownership gives you value, value the makers would rather you rent. That might be closer to the truth, but many don't want to admit it. You will own nothing and be happy.... yuck.
It’s very easy to shit on white people no one is afraid of doing that now try that with the Jews and see what happens to you
Surely though, the number of houses still determines the price? Unless people are buying homes and not living in them, there are only so many households in a country. If you add a significant number of somewhat-expensive homes, then people who _can_ afford them will move out of cheaper ones, driving down demand and ultimately price for cheaper homes. If the properties are not selling, then the asking price would go down, making them more affordable for the same end result.
At a national scale, more housing should always drive down housing price, whether that new housing is affordable or not (again...unless people are letting properties sit empty, which people generally are incentivised not to do)
You forgot to address the fact that alot of homes have been purchased by Investment firms and hedge funds. They do not take care of properties. Also, the ridiculous tax breaks and corporate welfare they get that distorts and disadvantages most people.
That's because investment firms are just a symptom of the problem. Firms like Blackrock have admitted to their investors that the primary reason they're buying is because low housing supply is making prices surge.
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California signed bills to remove zoning laws and allow for duplexes
Thanks i needed this news
They didn't remove zoning, they just allowed duplexes to be built in areas zoned for single-family detached homes (with some caveats and exceptions). It is a step in the right direction, but hardly enough.
@@MrMineHeads. Yep. I believe the specific term is an ADU (Accessory Dwelling Unit). Also called granny flats. We were able to convert our garage In SoCal to a 2BD ADU. That's 2 bedrooms that are now available as living space in SoCal that wasn't there before. It'll take a hell of a lot more than this, but building an ADU is a lot quicker than waiting on a developer to buy a new plot of land or demolish an existing block to build a multi-family unit.
Senate bill 9 allows single family owners to build one or two duplex on their land. But it doesn’t apply to all homes, the land has to be big enough, the converted houses can’t be historical, construction can’t harm some protected environments etc.
Then there are many local governments that are fighting the state on it.
To me that means that some duplexes will get build. But not many. Prices will stay high.
Yeah, you can build an ADU on your R1 lot now, but it has to be at least 1200 sq ft . . . and you can't Airbnb it, and you can't rent it out unless it's your primary, and local jurisdictions can still make any rules they want, so it's limited. It does not do a good job creating an incentive to develop more housing.
I wonder how the housing bubble extends to the renting market… anyone seeing their rents go up?
The cost of rent, reflects the real estate market values in your area. If property values are up, so is the rent. Also if the cost of building a house is gone up, imagine a building a multi family home.
My rent goes up every year
Yeah, it's crazy here in Colo. A decent apartment (not a nice one) is 2,000 a month. I could get one of same decency for 1,600 a couple years ago
I’m paying $1500 for a 2br APARTMENT. Yes it’s bad😭
@@marissafranklin3281 it’s at least $1000 -$2000 more in parts of the Boston metro area. That’s in low income, working class suburbs and sections of the Boston area. I’d love to find a 2 bedroom for $1500.
Thank you for pointing out the zoning laws issue. I appreciate that you don't mix the concept of zoning laws with the concept of building codes. One is what can go where, the other is how to make them safe.
It's not about race
everyone wants a Villa with a garden and maybe a pool
Villas are simply healthier and comfortable since people have the need to be connected to the earth.
Local government don't approve new expansion since they have to pay for what taxpayers actually want ( infrastructure ) and they have to actually do their job
That's why they push the narrative of " re-zoning"
Re-zone is not necessary if you can expand horizontally
-Architectural engineer from Saudi Arabia
As always this was incredibly informative and helpful! However the question in the title was not answered. I would recommend changing the title from “Will the Housing Bubble Burst?” to something more in line with the discussion of the video, like “What’s the Solution to the Housing Shortage?”
Also, it totally ignored the massive Chinese investment in US real estate.
Gee, it's almost like discouraging trade school and encouraging college at all cost was a bad idea...
House hunting sucks! We spend all weekend every weekend for the past 7 months touring houses and put in well over 35 offers, often 100k over asking, 60% down, appraisal waivers, with months of rent back and still get out-bid by full cash offers - probably from Californians.
Either from CA or NY. Typical. Screwing up the housing market with their over inflated salaries/former home values. Good luck to you!
Well anywhere besides California and NY is really cheap to us when every home here is easily over $500k
You need to branch out to different areas.
Imagine how it is for someone who annot even think about a 10% downpayment, let alone go over $100k. Even $2k above asking price seems like a lot for regular people.
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i remember seeing zillow house listings where it would claim, house has been reduced by $50,000. pretty hilarious
Thanks for this upload. I keep getting unsolicited calls from investors asking to buy my house. There’s no way I’m going to let go of my house because, even if I sell for over my asking price, I’d then have to compete with these same investors on my next house.
Companies like BlackRock and Zillow are screwing up the housing market for working-class Americans.
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That infrastructure issue is happening right now in Orlando. The city wants to build a rail system from the airport to Disney World, but the rich snobs in Hunter's Creek are jamming it up because they don't want a train near their precious, high value property, and are trying to claim that they give a rat's about the "wildlife" it would disrupt in the nearby creek... 🙄 People are so pathetic.
If people cared so much about wildlife, they would welcome trains and petition to demolish highways
Orlando is getting more expensive and growing but thankfully not like Austin
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Great video! Would love you guys exploring the cost of urban sprawl explored by Strong Towns. It's crazy how expensive stuff gets when it's not walkable.
It's also crazy how quiet, private, green, and crime-free stuff gets when not walkable.
@ghost mall Correct. It's the low population density, which just happens to have low walkability as a perfectly reasonable side effect, as long as you're not an urban barista and can afford a car.
@@penultimateh766 agree with everything except crime-free. Cities can and overwhelmingly are safe in the developed world.
Was about to go mention Strong Towns myself! Good to see that it's getting popular :D
@@juandiegoceleminmojica8790 So downtown Los Angeles is safer than the suburbs ? Hmmmm.... 😏😏😏😏😏😏
Not in my backyard movement is a problem. When my state was recovering from was recovering from the financial crisis. A very large company in my area wanted to build a warehouse that would have created hundreds if not thousands of jobs. However the large Boomer demographic that lived in the area voted against it. We are holding ourselves back as a country.
from the boomers the most spoiled generation in existence
let's ask europe how come they dont' have nimbyism over there.
@@joeswanson733 we have a lot of it 😂
@@t-bone9239 basically all democratic countries have some form of nimbyism. the only place for sure you won't encounter it are in totalitarian countires... but i'm pretty sure you wouldn't wnat ot live there.
they cant die any quicker
Population is not growing .50mil of people over 65year old in the US.There are no housing shortages. But it should be 1 house for 1 person.Houses should be for living in only.
My friend recently bought a home in an LA suburb for almost $600k for a 3 bedroom amongst 5 cosigners. The market is crazy
He got a deal. 600k and below is considered cheap in this economy
That's a cheap house in LA.
It's an ownership problem, not an affordability problem. Corporate landlords will often own more than 1000 homes to rent to the public. This doesn't make living cheaper, it makes ownership more scarce, increasing the price, as with any hording tactic. As long as you can't buy, you must rent, driving up rent prices too.
If the ownership problem was fixed those 1000+ living spaces each corporation owns become up for grabs dropping the price back to affordable levels. The vast majority of people already live in a home, they just don't own it.
The shortage of houses along with bidding wars is a sad case of supply and demand. Interesting to see the logic on trade workers retiring and not enough new employees entering the field. Trades make great money so it’s sad to see these positions be left empty.
Trades people didn't have any protections and manual labour puts a lot of wear and tear on your body. My mother's family doesn't have anyone in trades and they're happy and healthy in old age. My father's family mostly has people in trades and their backs and knees give out by their 50's.
People who have worked in the trades warn their children not to follow them saying: It'll wreck your body.
with terrible worker rights and the healthcare costs in the US, why should people enter a field that greatly damages their body? Why should employers try to give more benefits and better pay when they can pick up Pablo and Jose from the local hardware store to do a day's job for peanuts and not calling ICE
@@runningfromabear8354 You can be happy without working in a trade field, but if you do it can definitely take a toll on your body, depending what it is and how much you do it.
I have a few friends who work in trades and they love it. However, they’re also young, so they haven’t seen the toll that it would take on their bodies yet.
@@flyingmonkeys96 I believe that’s what Unions and company healthcare plans are for. It’s also to each their own. If someone wants to go to college and take out $80k in debt to make $40k a year, that’s their decision. People can also enter trade schools and make a lot of money after they’re trained in a few years, so it all depends on what they want to do and what makes them happy.
@@BrandonMinguez Which trades don't wear down your body. Carpentry, masonry, plumbing, electrician, elevator (repair and installation), all of the trades take their toll. I've yet to see anyone who worked in trades all their life who reaches their 60's in good health.
It's worth noting that houses aren't anywhere near that expensive everywhere. If you want to live in a trendy city or directly outside of one, or in an immaculately manicured suburb, sure. House prices are nuts. If you're willing to move somewhere a bit more rural, or with a 30/40 minute commute, prices are far more reasonable. People complain that the cities are where the best paying jobs are, but if you have to spend 2/3 of your income on housing, are you really making more at the end of the day? If you have to work two jobs are you really able to enjoy the amenities the city has to offer? I get why people want to move to trendier areas, but you know how a lot of those areas got trendy? People moved there and started something cool.
thank you for discussing zoning laws!! being a frustrated millennial trying to buy a house has fully radicalized me as a YIMBY.
Based and densitypilled
@@mikec9166 Based and Basedanddensitypilledpilled
Also, Screw NIMBYs
I’m glad they did as well, however I do think they under Emphasized the land restrictions by local governments for “green spaces“, etc. it is more than just “rich” homeowners who cause land use restrictions.
If you enjoy living like a bumblebee and paying out the nose for a tiny place you’ll never own that only gets more expensive everytime you renew your lease then that’s for you. Not everyone is cut out for that. The crime alone was enough to drive most families out of the city.
Density of homes affect sewer, rubbish pickup, schools, police. A strain on the system is expensive too. NIMBY is a valid concern and city leaders should do more to address the issue and clearly communicate concerns to their constituents
@TwoCents, You should have mentioned the large amount of Private Equity investment in single-family homes recently. These firms are buying over ask like crazy (reducing the available housing supply increasing the price) in certain markets and plan to gain returns through renting the property. It is my fear that when the rent becomes too high and they have difficulty renting the properties (because Millennials want to buy homes, not rent as you mentioned), they will have to cut their losses and liquidate their properties. This would increase the supply of homes on the market, and therefore drop the value of all homes (a crash). [Would love to see a video of you breaking this down].
3:30 maybe people who work with their hands in the US should better respected and paid instead of being on-demand and not very respected.
Great video! Would’ve loved if you touched on corporations and institutional investors that are buying up properties and driving up prices.
The 2022 bubble has burst especially in the Austin area. That bubble is looking like a 30-40% drop is happening right now over the next year IMHO. There is a lot of data to support this. Inventory is climbing fast with the homes that were never finished during the pandemic, investors are selling their investment homes as the bubble is deflating. 6.2% 30 yr fixed mortgages are pricing out new buyers. Inflation adjusted prices are at all time highs. Everything is pointing to a BIG drop. IMHO
In the city I live in, they are working on a “missing middle” project. If it goes through then it will be the same zoning laws for single family homes, building “granny suites”, corner suite town homes and duplexes/triplexes.
New residential construction in the U.S. is so cheap and flimsy... Even if we ramp up production, I feel like we're just pushing disaster down the road.
I live in a 1960s-era apartment building and just visited friends who live in a building that's probably less than 20 years old. The difference was palpable.
Building codes are getting more and more advanced, but compliance seems to actually be going down. Old homes are not "up to code", but neither are new ones.
Sorry to break the news guys but there is no "Housing Bubble". The video gives a very good picture of the current situation and why housing prices are where they are now, and with all these factors there's no reason to call it a "Bubble". Demand is very strong and very real, and supply is still very short of where it needs to be to tame price growth.
If anything, sometime down the line we'll probably see price growth flatten if interest rates rise a lot, but there's no reason at all for prices to decline. Don't fall into thinking prices should decline because reality is there is no reason they will and may only continue getting much higher. Don't try to play the market.
Not everything is racism, and I wish people would stop perverting the topic to argue that it is....
If you worked very hard to build yourself a nice home, and then the government surrounded your home with 100 unit subsidized housing with no trees and huge parking lots, you wouldnt be too happy about it. Please keep a reasonable perspective.
They leve out mostly women. Often same women who kicked men out abd Drain them in alimony and unfair child support when call them. Dead Beats when their the dead beats
You obviously profit from it yet you complain about it
Pop the bubble !! POP THE BUBBLE !!!!
Wow, those new tattoos were very distracting. They look terrible imho. Just my two cents….
Yeah, it's puzzling. They're in their mid-to-late 30s, I assume, and they're still getting tattoos? So stupid.
Looks so unprofessional and classless - couple of weirdos
the one person who disliked the video is a NIMBY
So as a single-family homeowner, who just paid absurdly high prices to get it, I do not think you have to be a racist (as implied multiple times through the video) to care about the value of this 300-500K asset which is typically the single largest investment a family has in their portfolio. In a few years, I think you may find these new homeowners will react the same way as everyone else did when some government wants to take an action, (i.e allow homeless camps across the street from your house, allow a multi-story building with 40 cars into a 'quaint' little quiet neighborhood) which will cost you a significant % of your investment. You will react with your best financial interests in mind.
Apparently, only white people care about maintaining home values . . .
It's already a scam everyone in a mortgage period!
I know I'm not the only goofball that saw the thumbnail and thought of the *Marvel VS Capcom 2* character select screen.
Well now that you've pointed it out, I guess I'm due to be taken for a ride.
The housing In the states is very unsustainable. No duplexes triplexes or mixed housing family neighborhoods are allowed to be built outside of city centers. This really affects the cost variability. It is a HUGE problem. Who wouldn’t want to live in a neighborhood of diverse architecture and housing options? An apartment, a condo, a small house, a big house all in the same region. What’s the big deal? Having small neighborhood centers with shops and mixed apartment zoning above is such an ideal in America when in reality it’s a much better living situation than what we have now. Change those zoning laws people!!!!
What about hot zones, where the bidding wars and overstock has surged? Are those bubbles going to pop when sellers realize the home has been listed for too long?
incredibly insightful. The title doesn't aptly capture how much I got out of this lol
Either one of two things needs to happen. More smaller, affordable homes built near cities. Or more money and training given to struggling school districts, which will redistribute ppl to lower priced areas.
Actually this is the best answer, I think no matter what lower priced areas need to have better standards of living. If someone disagrees with me bruh look at the water and air quality that stuff is wackkkkk very sad
some companies want us to live in boxes for 1000s of dollars now a box roomshared with others less than 100 sqft and they want us to pay 1000s. HELL NO.
100 dollars a month maybe for short term but these mofos want leases signed?
Honorable mention: heavily tax individual landlords after they own so many units to discourage people buying for air bnbs or further increasing the divide between home owners and renters.
There is no reason some 28 year old trust fund baby should own dozens of condos.
Actually these mofos will build smaller MORE EXPENSIVE with lower quality housing instead.
Wut we really need is to undercut these mofos to the bone and crash housing market completely.
Small amount of land = built upwards apt complexes and charge 50% of rent for same size apt and zip codes.
@@threadbabie they will just start multiple llc companies and only own up to the allowed amount in each llc
Don't necessarily need high density housing, USA has loads of land, just need better public transport, Internet access and social housing
There's a ton of empty space, Why do cities have to be so dense?
For people who have a home that rising prices means you have something very valuable that you can pass generation to generation, family wealth.
When they talked about fighting to buy a new home and now they LOVE it I was like, "Oh did they just move to Austin"? Because Im from there, I never buy that, 'people are moving away from cities' schtick, if anything theyre only moving to the suburbs, or exurbs that are maybe 30-45 minutes out of the city but still in the area, or close to a highway. Hell ALL of Texas' boomtown growth is along I-35 and the "Texas Triangle" mostly in the hill country because that's probably the most beautiful part of Texas. I dont see places like Abilene being a place of growth, or even like Lubbock, if people are fleeing the cities theyre moving from big city to smaller city, but Im not sure that growth is even going to last, and truly smaller towns and rural areas arent really seeing it outside of rising prices with not much demand (outside of investment firms looking to scoop up and bet on it)
PEACE
PROSPERITY
BONANZA
FREE THINKING
OPTIMISM
1. No two bubbles are the same.
2. Housing is now more commoditized than ever. So don't allow emotions to take over on when to buy or sell. Unlike stocks or other investments, there is utility associated with housing which we tend to make emotional decisions from.
3. NO ONE KNOWS WHEN THE BUBBLE WILL BURST......there is always something or cracks that wont get exposed until it actually bursts. There is an inverse relationship between rates and prices. So this low rate environment has everyone guessing what may or may not happen.
Demand is coming from every angle (home buyers, flippers, I-buyers, foreign cash, etc). Who knows when demand will dampen.
Unfortunately the best bet is to stick to your budget. And if it forces you to move? You'll have to. Or to rent in the area you can't afford to buy in? No two situations are the same, and people have to adapt to this new environment. If you can't afford Los Angeles anymore? What's wrong with San Diego or San Jose? Manhattan out of the question? If Austin has priced you out? The suburbs it is.....it's that or never buying anything at all.
This market won't last forever. Until then, weigh and calculate your opportunity cost. Moving to a lower COL area, as hard as it is to accept, will probably be the only option.
Just bought my house last month. Mortgage company was okay with UA-cam income as my primary source. I've been glad to see lackluster home prices start to go up in my area. Certainly hope the bubble doesn't pop right after purchase lol
What about property taxes? Because of bonds bought to do community stuff, property taxes tacked on to the high cost of the house is just as crazy. $12,000 per year in property tax?!?!
There are enough homes. Almost everyone is living in a home. There is just too many landlords and corporate landlords and too many renters.
The public needs to take ownership of the corporate landlord apartments, fairly, by buying them. Using them as public housing with cheaper rents and operating some as public corporation condo associations. So that greedy corporate landowners cannot buy them, but would be renters can.
I can't wait for that duplex and triplex to be built right next door, said no homeowner ever. Also, European countries are vastly smaller and denser than the US, rail systems here don't really work.
The US literally built a giant rail network across the entire continent before anyone else did and it was the primary method of transportation for over a century. I have no idea where this idea you have that rail networks don’t work in the US, because there’s been more history in the US in which our rail networks were “working” than we have had automobile highways.
They only “don’t work” because we have given the right of way to companies like Union Pacific, and passenger rail will have to wait long times for these freight trains to move through. In many EU nations they solved this issue by nationalising the rail network.
The US federal government also heavily subsidises freeway and road construction giving states more incentive to build larger freeways at the expense of transportation solutions that are actually sustainable.
Russia and China, nations with larger land area (and for China, people) than the US have a very good system of commuter and passenger rail networks than the US has. The issue is not about size at all, that is an incredibly reductionist take with no real supporting evidence.
Lots of institutional money waiting in the wings with cash for quick closings when the prices really start dropping. Most families will be renting someday.
There’s nothing wrong with a group of people trying to stop their communities from changing in a direction they don’t like.
If you increase the density of a neighborhood what are the second and third order of effects to this. Such as higher traffic, noise levels, overcrowding of schools. Third order of effect would be like maintenance on roads and pavements would have a higher frequency. It would be nice to have the option of building a duplex or apartment, but don’t chastise people because they don’t want their community to change.
Yeah this video is just hating on home owners and people who have a higher income, which is ironic because i can say with a high level of certainty that this couple fits into that category.
I love this channel, but this video didnt give any insight on the housing bubble, but instead just focused in on hating exisiting home owners.
If I want to build a duplex or an apartment on my own property, who exactly are you to tell me I can't do that? What gives you the right to dictate what other people do on their own damn land? How is this any different from some communist dictatorship,?
You didn't answer the title of the video.
“White home owners”…..how about just home owners? The emphasis on “white” is unnecessary and is useless information. The point that is being made is that local HOME OWNERS didn’t want the value of their property to go down by having multi-level buildings built in the neighbourhood. This is true in almost any country and in almost any market. An apartment building was built behind my house in Canada and it drastically lowered the value of my home. As a home owner I didn’t want that building made there because it in fact lowered the value of my home…..I’m brown. Im not a “Brown Home Owner”. Stop racializing everything.
What other information can we gather as useful by knowing that majority of those homeowners were white? No matter what their beliefs were at the time. Even if they were “racist” (which is clearly the only implication you’re making here by emphasizing that these homeowners were white) the FACT that those kinds of buildings DO lower the value of neighbouring homes is true and is a valid justification of people not wanting those buildings built no matter what race your ethnicity you are. Other than that great video.
This is the core of the problem. High property values impact the poor and first-time homebuyers and renters, but they benefit existing homeowners. Existing homeowners regularly oppose new housing over property value concerns, but higher property values are bad for non-homeowners since it becomes more difficult for them to buy a house. There is a fundamental conflict of interest between homeowners and non-homeowners, as each want property values to go up and down, respectively.
In NJ every new construction for a single Family home is a luxury house or luxury complex. Nothing for the regular middle income guy. I can’t understand it.
I think the moral of the story is that nothing will change anytime soon.
Always do your own research, folks! While the info in this video is generally helpful, it’s widely one-sided and deeply biased.
I’m Hispanic and live in Austin, Texas. I chuckled at how a lot of the info about Austin’s demographics and depictions of how ‘the affluent white people’ hurt the local economy with their support for zoning laws is just so far from reality.
At best, that’s an extraordinarily one-sided and heavily partisan viewpoint. Minorities like myself are invested heavily in the real estate game and thriving in Austin, thanks to the red state's wise economic policies.
There are plenty of affluent Indians, Asians, Pakistanis, and Hispanics in the city who work high-paying tech jobs (Dell, Apple, Google, Facebook, and soon Tesla are all HQ’d here) and can not only afford one home but a several due to the vast, lucrative economic opportunities here as opposed to other big cities.
Which is actually significantly driving up real estate costs and making the city unaffordable for native Austinites (primarily white and Hispanic), not the other way around. 🤦🏼♀️
So let’s not pretend like minorities are struggling at the hand of the white suburban mom who’s voting in favor of zoning laws. 😂
An enormous amount of sought-after newly built properties in the city are owned by minorities who cashflow them on the side. I currently live in one. You’d be hard-pressed to find otherwise.
Furthermore, Austin is a baby city. You can drive 15-20 minutes in almost any direction and encounter cow pastures and livestock.
Needless to say, there is plenty of land to build on, Austin’s economic opportunities are ridiculously good, and zoning laws have clear benefits.
I also want to note that demand isn’t coming primarily from millennials in Austin but East & West Coast residents looking for refuge in red states from the failing policies in their blue states. Often paying cash 200,000-300,000k over asking and throwing in anything they can think of (like NFL season tickets) to outbid locals.
That’s what’s made it completely unaffordable for residents in Austin to purchase homes.
Fingers crossed, these new Austinites don’t turn Texas into the same disaster zone that’s California and New York.
All in all, I’m tired of white folks who lean left-turning every local challenge into a divisive, racial issue when it couldn’t be farther from one. #realitycheck
P.S. My fave part was when they mentioned Biden’s plan to invest in real estate developments. That was just the cherry on top. LMAO 🤦🏼♀️
Given the current market structure, the only way the bubble collapses right now is if boomers die off suddenly en masse or if the private equity that’s buying up 20-30% of houses for some reason decides to sell en masse versus sitting on them medium term until prices produce a good return for them.
You answered that as a politician
As in that you did not answer the question.
This video was fine until it brought in multi-family units in residential areas zoned for single-family homes. If Philip and Julia lived in a home where both sides had five-story apartments they probably wouldn't be so positive about the idea. They act like congestion shouldn't be an issue. Part of the reason people spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on homes is to get away from the congestion. What about parking as an issue for people who live in those neighborhoods? Do you think an apartment building built on a lot originally intended for a single house is going to have its own parking structure? No, they'll have to park on the street - in front of other people's homes. Do they seriously think building multi-unit houses (AKA apartments) will fix the homeless crisis? The rent on those apartments could be anywhere from $800 - $2000 a month (or more) plus utilities and often renter's insurance. Does the average homeless person have $3000 lying around? Most homeless people are homeless because they want the freedom to do drugs without consequences or they're mentally ill, or they're criminals. A subset is homeless for just financial reasons, and those homeless people would still need incomes. Moreover, covid isn't the primary reason for the joblessness, it's government mandates that shut down businesses and put them out of business. Mandates that terminate the jobs of people who for their own reasons have issues with the vaccines. It's increasing minimum wages and environmental extremism. I should have expected only half the story from anything to do with PBS.
How can you say that the solution to this problem could be to increase mortgage rates?!?!?!
The issues here are class, not race based. Let's try to keep the divisive speech out of it.
so wait... someones bright idea to fix that it's too hard and expensive to buy a home, is to make it more expensive to buy a home? wow....
Ok but... you did not answer your own question : Will the housing bubble burst ?
have you watched the video?
think for yourself
does this seem sustainable to you?
@@loopuleasa Why I think is completely irrelevant. I watched the video so I can have their opinion. I got a nice explanation but no answer about the possibility of the bursting of the bubble
I think that after 33 years I finally understood SimCity
It is interesting how the cities that are the most left leaning (San Fran, NY and Seattle) are the ones with the strictest zoning laws.
not really, your forgetting that those cities also have a larger than normal populations of wealthy people who are more likely to be NIMBY's. I think they also mentioned it in the vid, booming economies should be attracting all sorts of people to an area but bc of housing costs only more affluent people move there, creating this feedback loop.
it's because the left doesn't want to divide us by color, they want to divide us by rich and poor
I really hate NIMBYs! They also ruin other things too such as cell phone towers, fiber internet and more!
Did they address if the Housing Bubble was going to burst???
I was going to ask the same
housing bubble only burst if mortgages cn abe defaulted in masse an the banks don't step in.
i wonder if the people living in San Francisco, California are saying everything is going as planned as of 2023 into 2024
I've definitely heard the "character of the neighborhood" argument a lot, especially from my own family! Maybe this is a sign that we need to rethink the ways condos and apartment buildings are built, and integrate them better with the surrounding area. Instead of gigantic buildings with lots of open space around them, consider smaller buildings that house 3-4 families like what we see in the San Francisco, CA Mission District and Brooklyn, NY. Of course, the permitting process will have to get cheaper to allow developers to do this.
These other forms get opposed by the same people, with the same talking points unfortunately
Well... Here comes the NIMBYs
Hating on CA for not building enough homes, but 15 years ago, they were building homes like crazy with no one to buy them. The problem is less the building, and more that EVERYONE wants to be there at the center of the action where the weather and scenery are nice.
Those were also some nice jabs at homeowners who are "keeping development down." Just look at what the mass dense development does. It's a temporary fix that leaves a nasty mess behind. Look at the San Fernando valley. Fixed a problem temporarily, then ruined the area for the future.
People need to learn to move for housing, not just jobs. When the pressure is there, the jobs will move, and then the people will move and a new developed center is born.
Don't worry about the labor shortages. Thousands of skilled labor from Mexico and other South American countries are on their way to solve this.
Americans think that everything is about race. These problems exist in all countries, even ones which only one race like Japan.
It's hard for people, even Americans to wrap there head around how through the explicit and implicit segregation laws effects housing in this country. I would recommend "The Color of Law" if your interested in any indepth info on the subject
Japan has more then one race?
@@killertigergaming6762 no
@@inquaanate2393 yes it does search it up
@@killertigergaming6762 rounded to the nearest percent, japan is 100% Japanese. The islands have more indigenous populations but on the mainland there is no racial dynamic but there are still socio-economic systems that Americans view to be entirely racial in origin. How is it possible for such systems to exist without different races if races are the supposed cause?
I'm still confused if now is a good time to buy or if the economy will collapse.
American housing makes no sense to me (as an American). We sacrifice hundreds of acres of perfectly good farmland to oversized, impossible-to-navigate subdivisions full of oversized houses with oversized yards (which people waste water on to ensure they require constant mowing) that cost more than older houses of better quality.
AND we build them too far from anything to make walking, biking, or mass transit a viable option, making car ownership a virtual necessity, which carries with it the costs of maintenance, fueling, and insurance.
The Fed lowered interest rates to near zero due to the crash of 2008 and has never "normalized" them since. This is what happens when capital has few places to go where the risk free after tax return of U.S. Treasuries is negative. The zoning laws are also a big factor.
Correction: This is what happens when capital has few places to go where the risk free after INFLATION return of U.S. Treasuries is negative. The zoning laws are also a big factor.
There's no labor shortage in the skilled trades that does commercial work, for example labor unions in high paying cities like Seattle are pretty competitive to get into (seriously, it can take years to become a plumber) it's more of a pay shortage. Nobody wants to work to build houses they'll never afford.
Waiting for someone to say "why don't we tax land values?"