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You are so right about this, I am an engineer at GE but in the evenings I run a 3d printing business in my 900 square foot apartment and I actually make more selling printed stuff online than I do as an Engineer.
Don't underestimate the political power of the "Makers Movement". We can use to say, erase regulations that discriminate against small scale production. DIY lumber forestry is much like firewood, like small scale orchards, like farming, like ranching, like welding, like metal cutting, like electronics(Raspberry Pi, Arduino) like 3d printing, etc etc. Scan a part or make it on good free CAD software, expand it 103% and use it to make a mold for casting metal. All these topics and more have multiple You Tube channels and are covered on inexpensive subscription teaching web sites. We have huge numbers of potential allies.
The gloom and doom being programmed into the masses only serves, intended and/or not intended, the agenda that seeks to take away the freedom, power, the wealth, the self-reliance and the creativity of the individual. If you want to be an autocrat, the tried and true formula is to create a panic, paranoia, a false shortage of opportunity and a distrust and even hatred of other people who are fundamentally just like you. Eventually the deluded masses will demand a dictator, since they have been falsely programmed into believing there is no other hope for the easing the fear that controls them. But it won't, it is a trap. In time this can manifest the false reality into actual reality, if we let it. I choose otherwise, with all sober absoluteness and I pledge to die as a free man. How about you?
I have thousands of trees on 40 acres of woodland, attached to my 50 acre property. Trying to sell each tree is not really economically productive, but I can, and I will mill, lumber of what I need built on the property. It's not free lumber, because my time has value, but not only is lumber expensive, I live in a remote area on top of a mountain, so transportation time and cost is a factor as well.
I love trees and I love economics. I click on your videos for the forestry, but then you take us down an economic theory rabbit hole and I think it's awesome.
You pull a lot of interesting threads together. Really excellent. This and your "recent sawmill closures..." are some of the best videos I've seen on UA-cam in the past year.
My creative therapy is making madrone ladles,bowls, and spoons. I've played with black locust cutting boards. It takes time, but when I bring them to the local gas station, gift shop they sell. My partner has had an 1984 woodmizer and definitely has provided a mutual love of wood to our relationship. I can run it and target a cut list within an 1/8 inch margin. Outdoor chicken tractors, deck replacement boards, garden trellises, thin rips for steam bent hoop house end walls, fun outdoor furniture, backscratchers, shoe horns, wood buttons and earings,picture frames,kraut pounders ( one I proudly made for Oly Kraut rom an oak4by 4). Now that woodmizer doesn't sharpen blades anymore, I'll be acquiring our own sharpening system. No doubt, our sawmill becomes a hub of commodity value within our network. It is has evolved into an important understanding of making and experimenting with BIOCHAR innovation. The waste wood can become a useful additive to garden soil. With a kiln, this wood is pyrolized. The charcoal substance can be crushed, innocculated with mineral /microbial fertilizers then added to garden soil. It doesn't break down, holds moisture, improves drainage and fertility. No waste -all wood is precious.
I like your reassuring tone about the robustness of the network of creative individuals in our midst. I built myself a nice quality mill, and it has really changed the way I build stuff. You got me excited to mill so I'm going to go out and cut up a maple log that's been waiting! I already participate in that small scale local economy by making parts for people and repairing things. I even 3d printed some parts for a farmer the other day.
I used to think i would never own a home too. Then i realized all i need is a small piece of land and a 3000 dollar mill. Now with the shelter institute, i can learn timber framing and its even closer to realization. If i can make this happen, anyone can. I started with nothing. No family, no help. And soon i will be off the hampster wheel. Ya, ill be off grid but the idea that ill no longer be a slave is very appealing.
I've watched a few videos in them and the cheapest ones can get a bit wobbly and might have trouble with knots. There are also all sorts of little mods and add-ons that make them work better. So, you can buy cheap and when money and time are avaliable slowly improve them. Or if you have the money just buy better quality to start. Both are perfectly viable. You might also be able to rent out your mill if you get one that's properly portable.
Excellent video! What you are preaching here is the continuation of Distributism. You are a 21st century GK Chesterton, and that's a very good thing. A common point that you make here, and Chesterton made at the start of the 20th century, is that small decentralized production is inhibited by law. In your specific case it is building codes which disempower the DIY home builder. Building codes are presented as a benevolent protection for the consumer. But in reality, it is for the protection of the building products industry; the construction industry; The government bureaucracy which creates and enforces the code; and most importantly the banking industry. It is a good thing for the banking industry that houses are incredibly expensive to build, therefore a 30-year mortgage is required for mere shelter. This has a knock-on effect and that when the individual signs that 30-year mortgage he commits himself to active employment in the wider market thereby guaranteeing a workforce to all other big industries. Government will always legislate in favor of their big friends over the small individual. Chesterton called these friends Hudge in Gudge, the businessman and the statesman. They are one in the same and work together to control/dominate the little guy. To this end our left/right political dichotomy is a good thing for Hudge and Gudge. The Right sees government (Hudge) as the bad guy, and the businessman (Gudge) as the good guy. The Left see's the businessman as the bad guy, and the benevolent politician as the good guy. In reality Hudge and Gudge are best buds with mutual interests.
My thoughts align very much with yours. Didn't even expect this type of video being that I followed for the self lumber making. Decentralization is around the corner. Or rather, it's here, and growing.
Great video. I’m a huge fan of my woodmizer lt15. One can certainly turn a hobby into a lucrative full time endeavor with a well designed and built mill such as the lt15- if you have your own land and can weld and you’re a decent mechanic and a generally resourceful person with plenty of energy. Basically a throwback to the small farmer type of yesteryear, who also has all of the wonderful modern technology at your disposal. Getting your own piece of land is likely the hardest part, but once that’s achieved, the technology we have access to now is nothing short of a miracle. Take advantage of it to improve and enjoy your life!
As someone that works in Data&Tech, I think you are correct about AI. To contribute to your decentralization concept, we could use the current AI iteration to sort regulations out and make them more standardized, and the AI robots you talk about could communicate, negotiate, run contracts, and “shake hands” with the AI regulators. Crazy idea, I know 😅.
19:00 The full "modern monetary theory" is: We can print as much money as we want, and in the long run (when inflation happens) we'll be dead! Yes, that is the actual reasoning why inflation isn't a problem with MMT.
Once you add modern 3D Printing (fast and just works), wire EDM (Electric Discharge Machining), and the ability to purchase a laser source that you can use to weld, cut and clean, AND build a CNC that you can build yourself you can manufacture almost anything you can imagine in your garage. It's an amazing time to live.
Oh! And the ability to build your own auto steer system for your tractor for under $500 with PCB circuits that you can order cheaper or even manufacture yourself. And you can use that to then autonomously haul either your lumber or logs etc.
You are definitely right about one thing, after 50 years in the industry, what kills most mills is debt, the best advice l ever got about sawmills is never be in a position that you have to run it.
I like that you are sharing your thoughts and opinions without fear of being wrong. Because you know that being wrong is actually what teaches us about our theories and experiments. The fear of being wrong seems to paralyze too many people. I am wrong a lot! But I learn from it. What does Bezos say? He wants people "with strong beliefs that are weakly held." My mentor once told me, "the smartest man in the world is only right 50% of the time..... and you and I ain't the smartest guys in the world!" I enjoy the range of topics and the mix between historical and future extrapolations. It is good stuff. I am with you 100% on UA-cam's value of pinpointing a demographic for advertisers. UA-cam takes marketing from a black hole of cost to a potential profit center instead of an expense. I am testing this theory right now. So are you. People are leaving the platform, or complaining about the platform. "Who moved my cheese?!?! Who moved my cheese?!?!?" Instead of going to find the cheese. Change. Reinvent yourself. What is really happening? Or is it just easier to cry "UA-cam is greedy!" Which is absolutely true! That's a given. So feed the greed. Make UA-cam money and you, the creator, will make money. NB
Great video. I subscribe to Peter Zeihan. I was fed your demographics video. You basically made a better video than most of his and i subscribed immediately.
You can't build a house out of unstamped lumber in most states though? There are a lot of uses for uncertified lumber, but it's still a serious shortcoming.
I disagree with this...kind of. In most states you actually can. It takes some working around and creative use such as timber framing or owner built. I do agree that a contractor can't build a stick built neighborhood house with rough sawn lumber.
I both agree and disagree with you about AI. I believe what you are fundamentally missing is that the new difference in AI isnt the generative stuff. It's that it can reason and problem solve to a point. The generative stuff is a distraction. I have used it to write code, double check my understanding of things, etc. It has solved problems for me I could do myself, but quicker. One interesting aspect of this is it "thinks aloud". Meaning it can talk its way through a problem. In a very real way, its figuring out what it knows as it is "saying" it. So for best results you prompt it to do step by step, and can even have it produce a general outline on how to get something done, then go back and elaborate those steps.
This. Also, I can now write code that have some lines of instruction written in plain english because the LLMs can reason significantly reducing the need for hard coding.
A couple of comments, first of all I want to say great video and thank you for taking the time to make it. I'm a builder and have been for over 50 years, I also own my own small portable sawmill (bought my first one over 20 years ago). When you say it's possible to now build your own home using lumber from your own wood lot, what you're actually saying is it's possible to build the frame of your own home. The wood frame of a home is the cheapest quickest easiest part of a home to build so building the frame with your own lumber really isn't saving much in the total cost of a modern home. If you provide the labor to frame your own home and the wood, you'll save about 10% of the cost of a new home. But it can be a very rewarding experience. I don't waste my time with my sawmill cutting frame lumber, it's actually much cheaper just to buy it from home depot. What I do though is make exterior siding, cabinet, countertop or finish trim lumber such as flooring. You can save a ton of money by making this interior/exterior finish type wood with your own sawmill. You also can sell it and make good money. I do this with free logs that I get from local tree trimming services, I stick with the expensive hardwoods like pecan oak and mesquite. I do it as a hobby and for the fun of it and use the material in the homes that I build but I'm not doing it because I think I'm making or saving money. Secondly, In your video you make comments about our national debt and how it will balloon out of control. I just turned 70 this year, my political exposures go back to the election of JFK. Based on your video, I'm guessing you're in your mid to late thirties? If so it means that you were a child during the 1990s when Clinton was president and we had a balanced Federal budget for the first time in 30 years. The reason for the massive debt that we have currently isn't because of spending during the pandemic, it's due to the massive tax cut to the rich enacted by Trump when he was president. This is a pattern that goes back to Reagan 44 years ago. Get elected to office, enact massive tax cuts for the rich and run up the the deficit, then have a Democrat come in and fix it. For the life of me I can't figure out how Republicans still can pass themselves off as fiscal conservatives. If Trump is re-elected then yes you're correct there will be chaos and catastrophe across the board including economically. If Biden or another Democrat is in the white house, the debt will be under control within a decade. Democrats historically are much better at economics and running the the government then Republicans. So choose your president and choose your future in the next election. Chaos and turmoil, or calm and boring.
I agree 90% with you, especially on lots of small machines replacing a few large ones. I am currently working on doing that with farming. What you are wrong about is AI and replacing jobs. Machines have been replacing human labor for centuries, but each wave is very different. The first wave was energy. No more hand grinding wheat. The next was automation. No more weavers. The next wave is thought. So no more radiologists. If they can solve self driving then no more truck drivers or taxis. That will be a seismic change. I think before that will be stuff like fruit picking. That is what I am working on.
You are right I design parts/run a smaller cnc machine at home manufacturing parts for local companies. You wouldn't be able to tell a difference of quality in parts between a bigger companies product and mine.
These things are even more economical when resources are shared..my neighbor and i shared a riding mower. If you own a mill maybe your neighbor has a welder or 3d printer.. reciprocity is absolutely the most efficient exchange of resourcess because value is ascribed not intrinsic..
In a community you can set up a "maker space" (formerly known as a craft shop) to facilitate a cooperative with shared equipment. I helped run a maker space near downtown Pittsburgh for a couple of years, and help them accumulate used tools from various sources. By the time I left we had a laser cutter, two 3D-Printers, welders, CNC machines, and various other equipment. We funded these capital goods and operations with a monthly $30 membership fee. If you want to get started with some of this more expensive equipment, think about working out equipment leasing deals (like for a laser cutter) with your neighbors. It can give the maker space a far cheaper option for access to the equipment, while giving the owner some return of capital (and the opportunity to buy new equipment when the old wears out).
I think one of the major issues decentralization brings us is significantly lessening the impetus for major urban areas. The vast majority of benefits of urban areas were based on centralization for economy of scale. Lessen these benefits through increasing decentralization and you start to drive a repopulation of the more rural areas where cost of living is lower, crime is lower and overall quality of life higher. Regrettably this will result in many more cities ending up like Flint, MI, dead broke and unable to provide even the most basic of services to a stranded largely poor population. While technologies such as advancing AI will drive major shifts in demand for various employment sectors, this is hardly new and the laws of supply and demand will force the shifts just as it did at the start of the industrial revolution. There will be a reduced requirement for what we call white collar jobs and a large increase in the service and trade sectors. As for the future of small scale sawmills, in this area (eastern WV) there are quite a few. The main downside is the variety of local timber, which is 90% hard woods. Using white oak trusses for a new barn is not for the weak or faint of heart. Yes it will be there for centuries, but the weight puts it beyond your typical DIY crew. On the other hand black locust fence posts are half the cost of big box pressure treated and will easily outlast them. In rural areas there has always been a fair demand for rough cut lumber and the proliferation of the small sawmills (thank you Wood-Mizer) assures us that barring government overreach, the supply will continue. Rolling back regulation on use of rough cut for residential construction (regulations largely ignored locally) would only increase the demand and hence competition and efficiency.
I wish you were right … there are mills that produce 3+ 10’ 2x4’s per second. These have been around for a long time (see Woodmizer, Baker, MightyMite) and range in sizes and configurations (see Hurdle).
3+ 2x4s per second would be comparable to a full scale $50 million industrial sawmill and would be able to produce over 100 million board feet a year. Nothing Woodmizer produces comes close to that.
As someone who works in AI, I'll give my two cents. The current form of AI/ML we have is going to be disruptive, but it will be disruptive in very small and specific ways. The most likely industry to be killed off by chatbots is going to be customer support workers. Other roles are unlikely to be replaced, but they will become more efficient as more and more drudgework will be handed off to chatbots, which will mostly impact juniors. This will take a decade before it has any notable effects. My biggest concern is that the hype and focus on using ChatGPT on homework will intellectually cripple the current and following generation of young people. I would not be at all surprised if we see literacy rates fall below 50% in the next decade.
My analogy is that the current cycle of AI (and I've been watching this since 1981) is at the scale of a research librarian for most applications. That's great for a customer service rep to rapidly research and deliver a solution, and terrific for large banks to automate their back office, but it won't cut and mill a tree.
The terribly increased cost of building a home is not merely the cost of materials. I'm _trying_ to build a place for myself and finding that the regulations are extremely burdensome (except of course for big investors especially those who just so happen to have a government position).
This too can be automated to make it easier. My brother started his business of building and running a trailer park from scratch, then pouring slabs for other manufactured homes. After a few years he became the manufactured home building code expert, and was called upon in a tri-state area for his expertise. The DIY crew will create knowledge pools and work arounds to make this burden less onerous.
@@thetimberlandinvestor wow, that's less than I expected. And you haven't had warping issues or anything like that? How much lumber do you need to process for it to pay for itself?
As you said, it would be illegal for you to sell dimensional lumber for someone to build with, so the government is the one to blame for not letting things like this compete
I think the global supply chain has effect on the “little person “ to compete for the niche market. A billion Chinese working for 25 cents an hour lowers the capital investment barrier to entry for the middle to low income risk taker.
Unfortunately, the price of lumber has never been lower, and it is the lowest cost component per square foot in the cost of building … the lumber is already cheap and has been for 75 years.
Price of lumber has had volatility, but it has pretty much kept up with inflation over the last half century at least. Looking just at framing, yeah, its not a huge component, but if you can produce framing, sheathing, siding, flooring, cabinets, and so on, it can be a huge component. Im building a cabin that will essentially be my primary residence in the US, and I should be able to do it for around $10,000 thanks to this mill.
these are hobbyist devices because they can't be used commerically due to not beingrobust enough to out last the ROI unless maybe 100% DYI, one expects.
That would be true if it *was* being used on a hobby basis and so didnt have enough production to amortize the constant and element-induced depreciation, but at least on my sawmill I don't see what could break in such a way to cause catastrophic failure. Its all a pretty simple mechanism and easily repairable.
@@thetimberlandinvestor i get that, but the problem is you need to have employees, and such a small machine can't produce enough product to cover that nut.
I disagree with you about modern monetary theory. You need to study the history of banking, most particularly the fractional reserve which is at the basis of the way they do business. In effect banks create money from thin air every time they make a loan. This would be fraudulent if they weren't so rich! And it does work. Where do you think the money that saved the bankers from their psychopathic behavior in 2008 came from? I can recommend some books.
Nuances of monetary theory and fractional reserve banking are perhaps worth discussion but my dude that money we spent kicking the can in 08 came from taxpayers.
@@Dooderduderthedudewhatdudes I am not sure that you are open to changing your views on this topic, so I hesitate to reply. I will just ask one question. Where was the store of taxpayer money used to deal with that crisis? Governments normally spend whatever they receive more or less as soon as they receive it. BTW, I do happen to hold an MBA from the Economist's 8th rated school in the world. Would you respect my attempt at a silviculture prescription or a logging plan?
@@davidford694what books? I’m not sure if I agree or disagree but I (currently) am of the impression that the national “debt” is a rather fictionalized representation and not just a big fat ELOC from China as many seem to imply. Always open to chasing that viewpoint 🤷🏻 I’m just a dude
@@davidford694 Always happy to learn new things and fold that data into my worldview. I am confused: your question indicates it may matter where taxpayer money was sitting the moment before it was spent on TARP or EESA or whatever - "The 08 Bailout". Here's my recollection: Acting Treasury secretary sold Congress on a plan, who then authorized the Treasury department to spend a few hundred billion but from where exactly I don't know. Federal Reserve printing rooms? Under a mattress? Someones Bitcoin wallet? Where did those dollars come from and why does this fact matter?
@@Dooderduderthedudewhatdudes The point I was making was that the money did not come from taxpayers. Certainly the taxpayers guaranteed the loan, but the money itself was created from thin air. The creation of money is quite different from earning money that already exists, which is what most of us do (if we are lucky). For this reason, and because the process has become more and more abstract over time (most human institutions do this) most people don't understand it. But if they did... Henry Ford was heard to remark that if people really understood how banking worked there would be blood on the street tomorrow. You obviously like to think out of the box, the video that started this conversation is a case in point. But how your micro economy idea fits in with the reform of finance is not clear, and it may not be worthwhile pursuing. But in case you are still interested, you might try listening to this lecture to the London School of Economics: www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=ann+pettifor+l+s+e&mid=0EE5333D621716B5C9460EE5333D621716B5C946&FORM=VIRE
For me the most destructive aspect of capitalist ventures is not the wholesale exploitation of the environment but instead it is the resulting elimination of the human element. Wiping out the beaver and buffalo was not as impactful as the genocide of indigenous populations.
Yes, mortgage rates are now 50% lower, but the nominal price of homes is now 500% higher than 1984. The result being that the yearly interest on a median home in 1984 was $10,400/year vs. $29,4000/year now, and back then there was no real "expense" as it was converted almost immediately into equity because of that 500% number I cited earlier. Jury is still out on whether this generation will see the same equity effects to negate interest expense, but given historically massive debt loads and demographic projections, I would think not. However, the people who are buying homes right now are depending on that future outcome.
Yeah I’m over in western Washington and bare land here (buildable) is about 300k and you usually need 50% down on undeveloped land, so unless you’re rolling in cash rehabs are the only way I can imagine getting into a place.
When I got married in 1984 we never thought we would be able to buy a house but eventually it worked out. I worked three jobs to eventually pay it off. Something we are not talking about is the massive drop in population expected in about 20 years. There will be a huge surplus of homes on the market and prices will likely drop. Houses as an investment might not be good in that time.
Unfortunately, you can’t grade your own lumber either; if you want to use your lumber legally, you’re going to need to find a bureau and get a transient grader; if your species requires drying, you’ll need to air-dry and get a grader with a moisture meter.
This is by far the biggest disadvantage to this type of sawmill, but some states are better than others. Maine, for example, has quite a few towns that don't enforce any building code. Moreover, I do think these regulations will change as services become less available in years to come. Im already seeing it here in various forms.
You covered too many topics in this video. Your view on AI is both correct and incorrect. The "Small Scale Revolution" is an interesting proposition, but if you look at business since WW II, you will be surprised at the number of small businesses. Taking restaurants as an example, there are still more individual restaurants than region and larger chains. Big box stores pushed out the "little" guy, and online is pushing out the big box store. Guess what: The little guy is still around.
Sorry There are technological advances that put people out of work Im a mechanical engineer and we went from a roomful of guys at drafting tables to one guy and a printer Those 30 odd men didn’t go on ti be better off… My wife was a typographic designer Apple basically destroyed that trade
Nothing lasts forever. "Adapt or perish" is the reality of our jungle and our genetic lineage. It is both very cruel and very true, but that the way it has always been and always will be.
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You are so right about this, I am an engineer at GE but in the evenings I run a 3d printing business in my 900 square foot apartment and I actually make more selling printed stuff online than I do as an Engineer.
Don't underestimate the political power of the "Makers Movement". We can use to say, erase regulations that discriminate against small scale production. DIY lumber forestry is much like firewood, like small scale orchards, like farming, like ranching, like welding, like metal cutting, like electronics(Raspberry Pi, Arduino) like 3d printing, etc etc. Scan a part or make it on good free CAD software, expand it 103% and use it to make a mold for casting metal. All these topics and more have multiple You Tube channels and are covered on inexpensive subscription teaching web sites. We have huge numbers of potential allies.
I agree. We live in a pretty interesting time for small scale, precision manufacturing.
The gloom and doom being programmed into the masses only serves, intended and/or not intended, the agenda that seeks to take away the freedom, power, the wealth, the self-reliance and the creativity of the individual. If you want to be an autocrat, the tried and true formula is to create a panic, paranoia, a false shortage of opportunity and a distrust and even hatred of other people who are fundamentally just like you. Eventually the deluded masses will demand a dictator, since they have been falsely programmed into believing there is no other hope for the easing the fear that controls them. But it won't, it is a trap. In time this can manifest the false reality into actual reality, if we let it. I choose otherwise, with all sober absoluteness and I pledge to die as a free man. How about you?
I have thousands of trees on 40 acres of woodland, attached to my 50 acre property. Trying to sell each tree is not really economically productive, but I can, and I will mill, lumber of what I need built on the property. It's not free lumber, because my time has value, but not only is lumber expensive, I live in a remote area on top of a mountain, so transportation time and cost is a factor as well.
That being said true, could not be that it being known you have a large stack of lumber for sale, with not actual sales work be done.
I love trees and I love economics. I click on your videos for the forestry, but then you take us down an economic theory rabbit hole and I think it's awesome.
You pull a lot of interesting threads together. Really excellent. This and your "recent sawmill closures..." are some of the best videos I've seen on UA-cam in the past year.
Agreed about pulling different threads together. Sometimes he shows a big picture much bigger than expected.
My creative therapy is making madrone ladles,bowls, and spoons. I've played with black locust cutting boards. It takes time, but when I bring them to the local gas station, gift shop they sell. My partner has had an 1984 woodmizer and definitely has provided a mutual love of wood to our relationship. I can run it and target a cut list within an 1/8 inch margin. Outdoor chicken tractors, deck replacement boards, garden trellises, thin rips for steam bent hoop house end walls, fun outdoor furniture, backscratchers, shoe horns, wood buttons and earings,picture frames,kraut pounders ( one I proudly made for Oly Kraut rom an oak4by 4). Now that woodmizer doesn't sharpen blades anymore, I'll be acquiring our own sharpening system. No doubt, our sawmill becomes a hub of commodity value within our network. It is has evolved into an important understanding of making and experimenting with BIOCHAR innovation. The waste wood can become a useful additive to garden soil. With a kiln, this wood is pyrolized. The charcoal substance can be crushed, innocculated with mineral /microbial fertilizers then added to garden soil. It doesn't break down, holds moisture, improves drainage and fertility. No waste -all wood is precious.
I like your reassuring tone about the robustness of the network of creative individuals in our midst. I built myself a nice quality mill, and it has really changed the way I build stuff. You got me excited to mill so I'm going to go out and cut up a maple log that's been waiting! I already participate in that small scale local economy by making parts for people and repairing things. I even 3d printed some parts for a farmer the other day.
interesting and thought provoking presentation!
I used to think i would never own a home too. Then i realized all i need is a small piece of land and a 3000 dollar mill. Now with the shelter institute, i can learn timber framing and its even closer to realization. If i can make this happen, anyone can. I started with nothing. No family, no help. And soon i will be off the hampster wheel. Ya, ill be off grid but the idea that ill no longer be a slave is very appealing.
Wait what these mills are just 3 grand??? Holy smokes I got some ideas now
@@Immortal.. the least expensive ones. Something a bit better, 6 to 10. But getting started for 3 is pretty enticing
I've watched a few videos in them and the cheapest ones can get a bit wobbly and might have trouble with knots. There are also all sorts of little mods and add-ons that make them work better. So, you can buy cheap and when money and time are avaliable slowly improve them. Or if you have the money just buy better quality to start. Both are perfectly viable. You might also be able to rent out your mill if you get one that's properly portable.
Excellent video! What you are preaching here is the continuation of Distributism. You are a 21st century GK Chesterton, and that's a very good thing. A common point that you make here, and Chesterton made at the start of the 20th century, is that small decentralized production is inhibited by law. In your specific case it is building codes which disempower the DIY home builder.
Building codes are presented as a benevolent protection for the consumer. But in reality, it is for the protection of the building products industry; the construction industry; The government bureaucracy which creates and enforces the code; and most importantly the banking industry. It is a good thing for the banking industry that houses are incredibly expensive to build, therefore a 30-year mortgage is required for mere shelter. This has a knock-on effect and that when the individual signs that 30-year mortgage he commits himself to active employment in the wider market thereby guaranteeing a workforce to all other big industries. Government will always legislate in favor of their big friends over the small individual. Chesterton called these friends Hudge in Gudge, the businessman and the statesman. They are one in the same and work together to control/dominate the little guy. To this end our left/right political dichotomy is a good thing for Hudge and Gudge. The Right sees government (Hudge) as the bad guy, and the businessman (Gudge) as the good guy. The Left see's the businessman as the bad guy, and the benevolent politician as the good guy. In reality Hudge and Gudge are best buds with mutual interests.
Well said Tom 👍
Very well, and succinctly put, Tom.
There's two ways of mass production. A small number of large machines that high throughput, or a large number of small machines with low throughput.
My thoughts align very much with yours. Didn't even expect this type of video being that I followed for the self lumber making. Decentralization is around the corner. Or rather, it's here, and growing.
We can only hope
Came for the saw, stayed for the talk! Subscribed! Greetings from Portugal
Really enjoyed the complete content of this video. Very well said, explained/articulated!
Great video. I’m a huge fan of my woodmizer lt15. One can certainly turn a hobby into a lucrative full time endeavor with a well designed and built mill such as the lt15- if you have your own land and can weld and you’re a decent mechanic and a generally resourceful person with plenty of energy. Basically a throwback to the small farmer type of yesteryear, who also has all of the wonderful modern technology at your disposal. Getting your own piece of land is likely the hardest part, but once that’s achieved, the technology we have access to now is nothing short of a miracle. Take advantage of it to improve and enjoy your life!
As someone that works in Data&Tech, I think you are correct about AI. To contribute to your decentralization concept, we could use the current AI iteration to sort regulations out and make them more standardized, and the AI robots you talk about could communicate, negotiate, run contracts, and “shake hands” with the AI regulators. Crazy idea, I know 😅.
19:00 The full "modern monetary theory" is: We can print as much money as we want, and in the long run (when inflation happens) we'll be dead!
Yes, that is the actual reasoning why inflation isn't a problem with MMT.
Magic Money Tree
And that worked so well for the Weimar Republic.
@jscotthamilton5809 to be fair, they are dead.
Once you add modern 3D Printing (fast and just works), wire EDM (Electric Discharge Machining), and the ability to purchase a laser source that you can use to weld, cut and clean, AND build a CNC that you can build yourself you can manufacture almost anything you can imagine in your garage. It's an amazing time to live.
Oh! And the ability to build your own auto steer system for your tractor for under $500 with PCB circuits that you can order cheaper or even manufacture yourself. And you can use that to then autonomously haul either your lumber or logs etc.
I'll have to research EDM. Sounds interesting.
You are definitely right about one thing, after 50 years in the industry, what kills most mills is debt, the best advice l ever got about sawmills is never be in a position that you have to run it.
Didn't expect to hear Luty and 3D Printing mentioned in the same video on this side of the internet
I have eclectic interests.
I like that you are sharing your thoughts and opinions without fear of being wrong. Because you know that being wrong is actually what teaches us about our theories and experiments. The fear of being wrong seems to paralyze too many people. I am wrong a lot! But I learn from it. What does Bezos say? He wants people "with strong beliefs that are weakly held."
My mentor once told me, "the smartest man in the world is only right 50% of the time..... and you and I ain't the smartest guys in the world!"
I enjoy the range of topics and the mix between historical and future extrapolations. It is good stuff.
I am with you 100% on UA-cam's value of pinpointing a demographic for advertisers. UA-cam takes marketing from a black hole of cost to a potential profit center instead of an expense. I am testing this theory right now. So are you.
People are leaving the platform, or complaining about the platform. "Who moved my cheese?!?! Who moved my cheese?!?!?" Instead of going to find the cheese. Change. Reinvent yourself. What is really happening? Or is it just easier to cry "UA-cam is greedy!" Which is absolutely true! That's a given. So feed the greed. Make UA-cam money and you, the creator, will make money.
NB
Wise man and profound video.
Great video, I haven’t purchased lumber since I bought my Frontier OS31.
Great video. I subscribe to Peter Zeihan. I was fed your demographics video. You basically made a better video than most of his and i subscribed immediately.
You can't build a house out of unstamped lumber in most states though? There are a lot of uses for uncertified lumber, but it's still a serious shortcoming.
I disagree with this...kind of. In most states you actually can. It takes some working around and creative use such as timber framing or owner built. I do agree that a contractor can't build a stick built neighborhood house with rough sawn lumber.
These videos are great, thanks
Thanks for posting this, the economy is getting so complex and education is getting so bad your perspective is only getting more valuable
Very very interesting. Thank you so much
I both agree and disagree with you about AI. I believe what you are fundamentally missing is that the new difference in AI isnt the generative stuff. It's that it can reason and problem solve to a point.
The generative stuff is a distraction.
I have used it to write code, double check my understanding of things, etc. It has solved problems for me I could do myself, but quicker.
One interesting aspect of this is it "thinks aloud". Meaning it can talk its way through a problem. In a very real way, its figuring out what it knows as it is "saying" it. So for best results you prompt it to do step by step, and can even have it produce a general outline on how to get something done, then go back and elaborate those steps.
This. Also, I can now write code that have some lines of instruction written in plain english because the LLMs can reason significantly reducing the need for hard coding.
A couple of comments, first of all I want to say great video and thank you for taking the time to make it.
I'm a builder and have been for over 50 years, I also own my own small portable sawmill (bought my first one over 20 years ago).
When you say it's possible to now build your own home using lumber from your own wood lot, what you're actually saying is it's possible to build the frame of your own home.
The wood frame of a home is the cheapest quickest easiest part of a home to build so building the frame with your own lumber really isn't saving much in the total cost of a modern home. If you provide the labor to frame your own home and the wood, you'll save about 10% of the cost of a new home. But it can be a very rewarding experience.
I don't waste my time with my sawmill cutting frame lumber, it's actually much cheaper just to buy it from home depot.
What I do though is make exterior siding, cabinet, countertop or finish trim lumber such as flooring. You can save a ton of money by making this interior/exterior finish type wood with your own sawmill. You also can sell it and make good money. I do this with free logs that I get from local tree trimming services, I stick with the expensive hardwoods like pecan oak and mesquite. I do it as a hobby and for the fun of it and use the material in the homes that I build but I'm not doing it because I think I'm making or saving money.
Secondly, In your video you make comments about our national debt and how it will balloon out of control. I just turned 70 this year, my political exposures go back to the election of JFK. Based on your video, I'm guessing you're in your mid to late thirties? If so it means that you were a child during the 1990s when Clinton was president and we had a balanced Federal budget for the first time in 30 years.
The reason for the massive debt that we have currently isn't because of spending during the pandemic, it's due to the massive tax cut to the rich enacted by Trump when he was president.
This is a pattern that goes back to Reagan 44 years ago. Get elected to office, enact massive tax cuts for the rich and run up the the deficit, then have a Democrat come in and fix it. For the life of me I can't figure out how Republicans still can pass themselves off as fiscal conservatives.
If Trump is re-elected then yes you're correct there will be chaos and catastrophe across the board including economically.
If Biden or another Democrat is in the white house, the debt will be under control within a decade. Democrats historically are much better at economics and running the the government then Republicans. So choose your president and choose your future in the next election. Chaos and turmoil, or calm and boring.
I agree 90% with you, especially on lots of small machines replacing a few large ones. I am currently working on doing that with farming. What you are wrong about is AI and replacing jobs. Machines have been replacing human labor for centuries, but each wave is very different. The first wave was energy. No more hand grinding wheat. The next was automation. No more weavers. The next wave is thought. So no more radiologists. If they can solve self driving then no more truck drivers or taxis. That will be a seismic change. I think before that will be stuff like fruit picking. That is what I am working on.
I agree with you, I just bought a CNC for make furniture 15 year ago it was imposible because the price
You are right I design parts/run a smaller cnc machine at home manufacturing parts for local companies. You wouldn't be able to tell a difference of quality in parts between a bigger companies product and mine.
These things are even more economical when resources are shared..my neighbor and i shared a riding mower. If you own a mill maybe your neighbor has a welder or 3d printer.. reciprocity is absolutely the most efficient exchange of resourcess because value is ascribed not intrinsic..
In a community you can set up a "maker space" (formerly known as a craft shop) to facilitate a cooperative with shared equipment. I helped run a maker space near downtown Pittsburgh for a couple of years, and help them accumulate used tools from various sources. By the time I left we had a laser cutter, two 3D-Printers, welders, CNC machines, and various other equipment. We funded these capital goods and operations with a monthly $30 membership fee.
If you want to get started with some of this more expensive equipment, think about working out equipment leasing deals (like for a laser cutter) with your neighbors. It can give the maker space a far cheaper option for access to the equipment, while giving the owner some return of capital (and the opportunity to buy new equipment when the old wears out).
I think one of the major issues decentralization brings us is significantly lessening the impetus for major urban areas. The vast majority of benefits of urban areas were based on centralization for economy of scale. Lessen these benefits through increasing decentralization and you start to drive a repopulation of the more rural areas where cost of living is lower, crime is lower and overall quality of life higher. Regrettably this will result in many more cities ending up like Flint, MI, dead broke and unable to provide even the most basic of services to a stranded largely poor population.
While technologies such as advancing AI will drive major shifts in demand for various employment sectors, this is hardly new and the laws of supply and demand will force the shifts just as it did at the start of the industrial revolution. There will be a reduced requirement for what we call white collar jobs and a large increase in the service and trade sectors.
As for the future of small scale sawmills, in this area (eastern WV) there are quite a few. The main downside is the variety of local timber, which is 90% hard woods. Using white oak trusses for a new barn is not for the weak or faint of heart. Yes it will be there for centuries, but the weight puts it beyond your typical DIY crew. On the other hand black locust fence posts are half the cost of big box pressure treated and will easily outlast them. In rural areas there has always been a fair demand for rough cut lumber and the proliferation of the small sawmills (thank you Wood-Mizer) assures us that barring government overreach, the supply will continue. Rolling back regulation on use of rough cut for residential construction (regulations largely ignored locally) would only increase the demand and hence competition and efficiency.
I wish you were right … there are mills that produce 3+ 10’ 2x4’s per second. These have been around for a long time (see Woodmizer, Baker, MightyMite) and range in sizes and configurations (see Hurdle).
3+ 2x4s per second would be comparable to a full scale $50 million industrial sawmill and would be able to produce over 100 million board feet a year. Nothing Woodmizer produces comes close to that.
As someone who works in AI, I'll give my two cents. The current form of AI/ML we have is going to be disruptive, but it will be disruptive in very small and specific ways. The most likely industry to be killed off by chatbots is going to be customer support workers. Other roles are unlikely to be replaced, but they will become more efficient as more and more drudgework will be handed off to chatbots, which will mostly impact juniors. This will take a decade before it has any notable effects.
My biggest concern is that the hype and focus on using ChatGPT on homework will intellectually cripple the current and following generation of young people. I would not be at all surprised if we see literacy rates fall below 50% in the next decade.
My analogy is that the current cycle of AI (and I've been watching this since 1981) is at the scale of a research librarian for most applications. That's great for a customer service rep to rapidly research and deliver a solution, and terrific for large banks to automate their back office, but it won't cut and mill a tree.
"The Empire long divided must be united, the empire long united must be divided" -Sun Tzu
The terribly increased cost of building a home is not merely the cost of materials.
I'm _trying_ to build a place for myself and finding that the regulations are extremely burdensome (except of course for big investors especially those who just so happen to have a government position).
This too can be automated to make it easier. My brother started his business of building and running a trailer park from scratch, then pouring slabs for other manufactured homes. After a few years he became the manufactured home building code expert, and was called upon in a tri-state area for his expertise. The DIY crew will create knowledge pools and work arounds to make this burden less onerous.
So how much did your sawmill cost?
This one costs about $4,000
@@thetimberlandinvestor wow, that's less than I expected. And you haven't had warping issues or anything like that? How much lumber do you need to process for it to pay for itself?
As you said, it would be illegal for you to sell dimensional lumber for someone to build with, so the government is the one to blame for not letting things like this compete
I think the global supply chain has effect on the “little person “ to compete for the niche market.
A billion Chinese working for 25 cents an hour lowers the capital investment barrier to entry for the middle to low income risk taker.
Read The Sovereign Individual and Balaji's Network State if you haven't already
Imagine your output with a couple autonomous humanoid robots working for you.
Only if they run in gas lol
@@quartqwertbudisgood would you settle for diesel? 🤣
Imagine building your own house from your own lumber that you cut down and milled yourself.
That's my goal!
And having the county shut you down for no permit, no stamped lumber, no utility hook ups.
Only off grid or a barn or shed
"people have been saying that for 500 years" = Luddites
Unfortunately, the price of lumber has never been lower, and it is the lowest cost component per square foot in the cost of building … the lumber is already cheap and has been for 75 years.
Price of lumber has had volatility, but it has pretty much kept up with inflation over the last half century at least. Looking just at framing, yeah, its not a huge component, but if you can produce framing, sheathing, siding, flooring, cabinets, and so on, it can be a huge component.
Im building a cabin that will essentially be my primary residence in the US, and I should be able to do it for around $10,000 thanks to this mill.
these are hobbyist devices because they can't be used commerically due to not beingrobust enough to out last the ROI unless maybe 100% DYI, one expects.
That would be true if it *was* being used on a hobby basis and so didnt have enough production to amortize the constant and element-induced depreciation, but at least on my sawmill I don't see what could break in such a way to cause catastrophic failure. Its all a pretty simple mechanism and easily repairable.
@@thetimberlandinvestor i get that, but the problem is you need to have employees, and such a small machine can't produce enough product to cover that nut.
how the industrial revolution started: in the cottage....
I disagree with you about modern monetary theory. You need to study the history of banking, most particularly the fractional reserve which is at the basis of the way they do business. In effect banks create money from thin air every time they make a loan. This would be fraudulent if they weren't so rich! And it does work. Where do you think the money that saved the bankers from their psychopathic behavior in 2008 came from? I can recommend some books.
Nuances of monetary theory and fractional reserve banking are perhaps worth discussion but my dude that money we spent kicking the can in 08 came from taxpayers.
@@Dooderduderthedudewhatdudes I am not sure that you are open to changing your views on this topic, so I hesitate to reply.
I will just ask one question. Where was the store of taxpayer money used to deal with that crisis? Governments normally spend whatever they receive more or less as soon as they receive it.
BTW, I do happen to hold an MBA from the Economist's 8th rated school in the world. Would you respect my attempt at a silviculture prescription or a logging plan?
@@davidford694what books? I’m not sure if I agree or disagree but I (currently) am of the impression that the national “debt” is a rather fictionalized representation and not just a big fat ELOC from China as many seem to imply. Always open to chasing that viewpoint 🤷🏻 I’m just a dude
@@davidford694 Always happy to learn new things and fold that data into my worldview.
I am confused: your question indicates it may matter where taxpayer money was sitting the moment before it was spent on TARP or EESA or whatever - "The 08 Bailout".
Here's my recollection: Acting Treasury secretary sold Congress on a plan, who then authorized the Treasury department to spend a few hundred billion but from where exactly I don't know. Federal Reserve printing rooms? Under a mattress? Someones Bitcoin wallet?
Where did those dollars come from and why does this fact matter?
@@Dooderduderthedudewhatdudes The point I was making was that the money did not come from taxpayers. Certainly the taxpayers guaranteed the loan, but the money itself was created from thin air.
The creation of money is quite different from earning money that already exists, which is what most of us do (if we are lucky). For this reason, and because the process has become more and more abstract over time (most human institutions do this) most people don't understand it. But if they did... Henry Ford was heard to remark that if people really understood how banking worked there would be blood on the street tomorrow.
You obviously like to think out of the box, the video that started this conversation is a case in point. But how your micro economy idea fits in with the reform of finance is not clear, and it may not be worthwhile pursuing.
But in case you are still interested, you might try listening to this lecture to the London School of Economics:
www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=ann+pettifor+l+s+e&mid=0EE5333D621716B5C9460EE5333D621716B5C946&FORM=VIRE
m.ua-cam.com/users/DonnDIYvideos
This guy takes garage fabrication to the limit
For me the most destructive aspect of capitalist ventures is not the wholesale exploitation of the environment but instead it is the resulting elimination of the human element. Wiping out the beaver and buffalo was not as impactful as the genocide of indigenous populations.
Most boomers 40 years ago felt , they'd never be able to own a home.
Not true
@@spilledit Yes true. Mortgage rates in 1984 were over 13%.
Yes, mortgage rates are now 50% lower, but the nominal price of homes is now 500% higher than 1984. The result being that the yearly interest on a median home in 1984 was $10,400/year vs. $29,4000/year now, and back then there was no real "expense" as it was converted almost immediately into equity because of that 500% number I cited earlier.
Jury is still out on whether this generation will see the same equity effects to negate interest expense, but given historically massive debt loads and demographic projections, I would think not. However, the people who are buying homes right now are depending on that future outcome.
Yeah I’m over in western Washington and bare land here (buildable) is about 300k and you usually need 50% down on undeveloped land, so unless you’re rolling in cash rehabs are the only way I can imagine getting into a place.
When I got married in 1984 we never thought we would be able to buy a house but eventually it worked out. I worked three jobs to eventually pay it off.
Something we are not talking about is the massive drop in population expected in about 20 years. There will be a huge surplus of homes on the market and prices will likely drop. Houses as an investment might not be good in that time.
Unfortunately, you can’t grade your own lumber either; if you want to use your lumber legally, you’re going to need to find a bureau and get a transient grader; if your species requires drying, you’ll need to air-dry and get a grader with a moisture meter.
This is by far the biggest disadvantage to this type of sawmill, but some states are better than others. Maine, for example, has quite a few towns that don't enforce any building code.
Moreover, I do think these regulations will change as services become less available in years to come. Im already seeing it here in various forms.
You covered too many topics in this video. Your view on AI is both correct and incorrect.
The "Small Scale Revolution" is an interesting proposition, but if you look at business since WW II, you will be surprised at the number of small businesses. Taking restaurants as an example, there are still more individual restaurants than region and larger chains. Big box stores pushed out the "little" guy, and online is pushing out the big box store. Guess what: The little guy is still around.
Work is an infinite resource, no one can do it all
👻🪵
Sorry
There are technological advances that put people out of work
Im a mechanical engineer and we went from a roomful of guys at drafting tables to one guy and a printer
Those 30 odd men didn’t go on ti be better off…
My wife was a typographic designer
Apple basically destroyed that trade
Nothing lasts forever. "Adapt or perish" is the reality of our jungle and our genetic lineage. It is both very cruel and very true, but that the way it has always been and always will be.