Top Two On A Monotone Flop | Ask SplitSuit
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- Опубліковано 20 жов 2024
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Saulius raises AQ and goes heads up to a monotone flop, where he also nails top two pair. After betting the flop and facing a CR on the turn, Saulius is forced to make a big decision. SplitSuit breaks down the math, the thought process, and why folding can make you a bigger target than you want to be.
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My general opinion about 10 NL is, that people are not bluffing quite as much as perhaps game theory say, they should. Most regs seem to be pretty tight and value injected, particularly on the turn and river. Which make sense, because most of the soft players at this level are more likely to make calling mistakes than folding mistakes.
So against an unknown player at 10 NL my default would be to give him respect rather than give him my money in a situation like this. When we have information on the guy from our HUD-stat and hopefully from seeing him getting hands to showdown, then we can start to create a more optimal line against him. But with the information given here, I like folding anything except sets and the nut flushdraw.
I somewhat agree with your conclusion. However, I'd argue that is better to call because by calling we can actually see what kind of hands and lines he plays this way. This kind of spots don't come up very often, so in order to formulate a long term winning strategy we have to pay off opponents in certain spots so see what they're doing. Also, we're never drawing dead in this spot. At worst, we have 10% equity to fill up and a ton of added equity if he's ever bluffing a non optimal frequency (Which again we can't know unless we pay off enough to make optimal conclusions later on). And you can't never expect a 10NL player to be making optimal plays. So, this guy either bluffs too much or too little/never. It's never in the middle. So this one could can be enough sample at these stakes to formulate a strat long term.
What do you guys think of this approach?
I will call and treat any diamond also as an out and lead out essentially turning my hand into bluff if i don't fill up...4 card straight and flush cards work with surprising high frequency ags most fish and sticky badregs as they can't imagine you bluff there.
+John Griller Its a bit expensive to pay an entire buyin just for information about a player, we might never play with again. Also seeing this particular hand would give no information, since we always expect there to be flushes in his range. So him having a flush tells nothing about, which line he take with a bluff hand.
Therefore I would much prefer to pay attention to, how he play in hands against other players. Is this someone, who raise the turn all the time? If so then that is definitly indicative of a bluffy person. And hopefully someone else will pick up on that as well and call him down, so we can see a hand for free.
Very good points.
I agree with you 100%. I mainly play 10NL and I have come to the same conclusion. If an unknown puts me in a position like this more often than not they are going to have it.
Mini raise from any position... How to give the perfect odds for all the pocket pairs and suited connectors to reck you all the the time, and create multi-ways pots to make it even more difficult. Edit: And I wrote that before the results :D
Min raising from any position is a legit strategy... elite pros do it all the time. It doesn't make that much difference. It doesn't magically make it profitable for everyone to make speculative calls with random junky hands.
John Smith They do it in tournament, not in cash games... It's a totally different game, you have no ICM in cash game...
Noashakra I know the difference between tournaments and cash games. I was talking about cash games and I stand by my statement.
Also people min raise in tourneys when average stack gets too small which makes 3x too committing, not because of ICM.
John Smith it is because of ICM, which is related to stack size, you clearly don't get the idea behind it.
John Smith The only places you could mini raise in cash games are cut-off and button to optimise your steals.
Why not make a turn strategy to flat call the turn raise and only play for stacks if the river is not a 4th diamond?
I didn't come up with this idea because the river in the video is a diamond, but because if the river is in fact a diamond and he goes all in, then we are behind 100% of his range, so we have an easy fold. On the other hand, if the river is brick and he goes all in we call because we beat other 2-pairs, plus the bluffs.
Like others have said, at 10nl there is very little bluffing. If you are training yourself to move up and building a thought process or playing 3/5 live, I can get behind this as a matter of principle. I go with the default read and fold at this level. This hand illustrates a point about cap stack play. If you play 5 bucks here and focus on reading and decision making, you're not punished as bad for being wrong. Sure you short your equity to the upside, but to my thinning, avoiding getting stacked -10 is more +EV than winning $5 when you're a dog against a range.
Maybe I'm completely off base, and possibly play too Nitty, but to me that's an obvious flush. Check call flop, check raise turn and in the small blind calling a min raise. I don't see how you can eliminate almost any Diamond other than something like 52, 53, 62, 63, 64. Now I don't believe its easy to get away from top 2 with a flush on board, but it seems to me that the way it was played a flopped non-nut flush is a reasonable and logical assumption.
I thought the same
Hey James, thanks for the videos. I have a question: why do you assume his opponents flush range was so narrow? Hero only min raised preflop, and opponent was in the sb. He could have had way more flushes than you said because people love to play suited cards , especially for a raise that tiny
was thinking the same
Why we don't put hands like A6 and A5? He might play them passively on the flop, especially if he call with the ace on the flop and hit the 5 on the turn. I don't know if I can get out of this spot here, but I think the fold is better if the guy is not a clear fish.
Given that he is an unknown, I guess we can not rule out hands like A6 or A5. But the thing is, if he is loose enough to defend his small blind with unsuited rag aces, then he will also have way more suited hands in his range. Stuff like K5 suited or J8 suited, which a tight player would never show up with. So him being loose pushes more 2 pair into his range, which he can overvalue. But it also pushes more flushes into his range.
Really good point, i had the same doubt. Im actually surprised that pokerbank guy considered the shove so much... im never giving an unkown so much credit as to be bluffy in such a tough flop, specially with that check-call, check-raise line... plus on fishy opponents u know a preflop call is almost always suited trash
You could argue also, that Heros betsizing play into this. He went really small preflop, but postflop his sizing got very large for an online 10 NL game, given that he almost potted the flop and potted the turn. I dont think, this sends a message to Villain, that it is a great spot to bluff. Rather it send a message, that it is a spot, where Villain can go for max value. Which he then did.
Yeah I think fold is best here. I know its gross but seeing c/r here on the turn is way to strong for $10NL player. I know he's only been here 9 hands but unless he seems like the biggest fish to overvalue A5 or sickest player ever to do this with air, then this just a fold. In my experience, I just dont see enough semi-bluffs here enough to this to be even close to a jam.
i dont think A6 or A5 would check raise that turn ...it dosnt make alot of sense to do that looking at the table its just awkward as fuck
In retrospect, totally standard play from Villain, of couse he is going to check, check-raise, after you CBet. He knows he has you on the hook and wants to get you commited before he brings the hammer. But when you are tunnel visioned on Top2, and not knowing if he is an idiot or not make it a very painful laydown.
Against an unknown in this situation, I would opt to fold. The best case scenario is he has AK with one diamond, but typically a raise of this size is a made flush. I actually put him on 9Ts which is a typical hand in many opponent's range. Easy fold. If you had info that it's an aggro maniac or fish, then sure, call.
Had a really similar spot at a live 1/3 game. Don't remember the hand that well but it goes like this: i have KJ on KJ8 all spades and bet 50 into 60, the guy calls me (in position), turn is the 5 of nothing, I bet 100, he jams 330 total, I decide to fold and get shown J8. Barely sat down, he was an unknown. So yeah, I guess he could have A5, A6, maybe some Q6 suited if he is loose.
Great video, as usual !
I just wanna ask, could you do some PLO hands analyzing as well ?
I recently decided to do almost complete transition from NL to PLO, and not many people do analysis for that...
Does he have a channel here on UA-cam, or... ?
PLO has crazy variance, I hope you are ready for that :p
Noashakra
Tnx, so far i have been, I play PLO actively for a few years, I just decided to play it more because of, first - i can win more money for less time in average which leaves me more time off computer, second - rakeback on the same level as NL is much higher because pots are bigger, and third - i just found out i don't have to think that much playing PLO compared to NL, its easier game for me, so i can stay focused longer.
Plus, forth, i don't like using HUD, and in PLO it just doesn't matter that much even when multitabling higher number of tables.
Felipe Lumo Good luck in that case, and glad it works for you. I understood that you just stared, and I was giving a friendly advice, sorry for the assumption :)
+Felipe Lumo Plo seems a gamblefest to me...i don't like the idea any fish can play any 4 cards and not be bad shape atall postflop....it's similar to why i don't like sng hypers in nl holdem cuz we're basically flipping all the time but that's why many are attracted to it.
Gross spot, good analysis. I'm personally flatting here in position. Try to squeeze a bit more info about villains hand out on the river.
jamming turn only gets calls from better hands. realistically, only sets+ can call the all in raise. If that is the case, is jamming turn really the best option?
I think it would be good to analyse the range the villain calls in big blind, just in need to complete 1 bb. A lot of sets and flushes in the range.
i so often raise large like 5x pre with ace king or ace queen suited and get called by strange suited stuff like king 3 or jack 8 .they just think if its suited then its ok to call
Totally agree with what people before me have said: At this level, it does not really come down to range analysis. Especially on the turn as opposed to the flop (as you mention yourself) a raise is 99 out of 100 times a value hand. Again: At these levels.
Mostly true.
Just to be clear - you are saying that this doesn't come down to range analysis but then you say that his range must be 99% value hands. So...it does come down to ranges still, right? =)
Sure, agreed, I get your point. But I'm also sure that you get my point as well.
I really do like your videos a lot. But this is not the first time I'm wondering if you still play stakes like these. I could imagine that you play higher stakes where there are different dynamics, which maybe lets you get out of touch with certain properties at the micros..?!
I don't play micros, but that's also why I gave a well-rounded reasoning for this hand. If you assume no bluff frequency, fold. If you assume lots of bluffs, never fold. That way people can input their own assumptions into the formula and still get an answer.
+0815hupe Its def not 99/100...people raise sometimes sets on turn...combo draws...ull be surprised sometimes it gets really weird but yea mostly it's a low flush like in this spot.
AQ seems near the top of hero's range so if he folds this he is folding an awful lot of hands, imo. If hero had say AK with Kd would he be calling the CR?
rockpile this channel is about exploitative play, not GTO
I think you don't play the flop the same way with A Kd. You can check into the turn with that given the flop and call x on the turn. Of course all of this would be easier if hero didn't min but whatever.
When you fold to much aspecially good hands like this you become really easy to bluff you have good show down value at a minimum and a good raise might get them to put you on a better flush
No one is ever folding a flush with just a 3 flush on board at this limit
Can someone tell me where to play online poker? I play live only since 2008, but need more poker in my life.
I've been playing PokerStars recently. They start you at 30000 and give you 15000 every 4 hours, which works great as their cheapest tournament is 10000 to enter. You can basically play almost constantly for free assuming you do about average.
how do you request a hand analysis??!!! im having nightmares about this hand!
Just go to www.splitsuit.com/send
Check the turn for pot control
But it's all about the tiny preflop bet..
If this was played on pokerstars I would know to fold the turn because I flop top 2 and I'm getting raised so I already know my opponent has a flush that is what stars does over and over
A lot of bad players have a lot of flushes in their range. Some will call and shove with any two suited cards.
Terribly played. 4x before the flop check call the flop and the turn, fold on the river.
Wouldn't you be better calling and if another diamond peels on the river, save your $5,75 by folding then (by folding)?
If u call here you put yourself through hell, because he is gonna put the rest of the chips no question, and unless a boat hits on the river you arent hanging on for a double barrel, so if u think he is bluffing the best thing is to shove and catch him right there before he finds another diamond.
+Axel Zittlosen I meant calling the turn with the intention of calling anything on the river except another diamond
Then you dont get his stack, if he is semibluffing with a single diamond. But he still get your whole stack, if he already have a made flush. In general if your opponent is more likely to be drawing than you, you need to get the chips in no later than the turn. This is because a missed draw will never call on the river.
@Fundiver, Disagree. A draw that turns itself into a bluff with this line will most likely not call a turn 3bet unless the player is a total fish. Whereas, he could still be bluffing turns and follow thru on rivers if he bricks depending on his strategy.
In Cash Games, you never want to take away opponent's ability to bluff by rejamming all in with your value hands otherwise you're gonna get a lot of action by better hands more often that you'll get action by worse hands. Not to mention you can get exploited the times you just call your mediocre hands and shove all ur good ones... However, I don't mind non optimal lines in the micros since anything is possible here and like 99% of players don't know how to exploit properly.
The funny thing if he calls the turn and jams river villain might fold lol
if you're unsure, raise
90% of poker commentators: OK this was disgustingly sick beat but actually it was the right play.
Way too much hand analysis on this hand i feel. 118/1 for opponent to flop a flush, you just have to stick it all in, or if you are very deep stacked just fold........
It's 220/1 to get AA preflop, but there are times you can just tell your opponent has it. Same situation here.
I don't fault hero, its a crappy situation either way. But Va1h3ru makes a really weird decision on the turn. Calling the flop then raising on a relative blank is really strange. The strangest thing is that he has the straight draw blocker to, so I just don't know how you get the idea to call the flop and then raise on a blocked possible straight draw? What is he representing at the turn that wouldn't raise at the flop? Why didn't he raise the flop to block any other diamond from killing action or killing his hand? I can't pinpoint what we can do with the fact that Va1H3ru decided to take an odd line with 87s and not raise on the flop, but raise on the turn, but it does not seem standard and possibly exploitable. Because the normal line would have been to raise on the flop if we flipped this hand around to get value and prevent equity from actualizing, but is calling the flop and raising the turn some genius next level move?
If you check-call a nuttish hand, and your opponent check behind on the turn, you can no longer get stacks inside. But you can still go for value on the river, which is better than losing him on the flop by a checkraise. And if he bet the turn, you can go for a checkraise and still get your stack in by the river. So you win more against the bluff part of his range and the weak value part of his range, and you can still get max. value against the nutted part on his range.
However it would seem more optimal to take this line on a dry board rather than a super wet board as this. So perhaps Va1h3ru is not the greatest player in the world. Which is not to shocking, given that this is 10 NL :-)
checkraising the flop also stops you´re opponent from drawing to bigger flushes or filling up sets...do you think its more important to allow him to fire again when he misses/ has a big made hand than to deny him a free card.
+Douglas Martin It depends, what you mean by "denying free card". You talk about "stop from drawing to bigger flushes or filling up sets". But thats just not going to happen. If he have a set or the K of diamonds, maybe even the J of diamonds, then he will call your checkraise. So if you checkraise, its for VALUE against those hands, its not to stop them drawing.
hmm you´re right. i dont agree j of diams should call a checkraise tho. Just to keep debating, j and k of diams are not giving you any value on the river. If he calls a checkraise on the flop with the king, which seems reasonable, you could actually be giving him a terrible price and the chance to 3 bet flop....?:S i dno man im hungover
As I wrote, it would be more standard to take this line on a dry board. However in this particular situation its very easy to know, which cards are good or bad. A diamond will counterfeit your hand. And while it sucks to get counterfeited, its not a situation, which is difficult to play. You know, your hand has been degraded, and adjust your line accordingly.
So I think, it makes good sense to close your eyes and pray to the card gods, that another diamond wont hit the turn. By doing so you have underrepresented your hand a bit, and you are probably more likely to get big action from hands like AK or AQ with no diamond on the turn.
Its suboptimal against hands like KJ with the K of diamonds. However some opponents might check those back on the flop, and then they dont have them. And others might dubble barrel them as a semibluff, in which case you can still get max value from them.
So all in all I think, Villains line makes good sense. Many players just dont expect, that anyone is able to slowplay a flush. So doing it often send people for a loop, as obviously it did with Hero here.
Too rich to fold. Cooler