My predictions: - Tebogo will run under Yohan Blake's 19.26 within the next few years, but never break Bolt's 19.19 - Lyles has one more 19.3x or high 19.2x in him, but he won't break Yohan Blake's 19.26 - Bednerak will be the most consistent of the bunch in the 19.4x ~ 19.6x range - Knighton will never best his 19.49, but may run a 19.5x, & a few more 19.6x's before retiring Probably pretty boring takes, but I feel like they're realistic, so that's my guess. Tebogo has the best shot, but 19.19 is crazy. Bolt was lacking some speed endurance (if Lyles a 9.8x 100m runner at the time did a 19.31, then a 9.58 100m runner with the same speed endurance could go 18.99 honestly or 19.0x), but he's just way too fast for everyone else. Yohan Blake was the only one with an actual chance & he had a 9.69 PB. I don't think a runner without a sub 9.70 100m has the speed to pull off a 19.18 or better even if they have the endurance. Bolt being more than a tenth of a second faster than anyone else at the 100m is just too much speed to overcome imo. Tebogo does have even more speed endurance than Lyles as he is the 300m WR holder & has run a 43.0x 400m split, but he's at 9.8x, not 9.7x. Since Tebogo has more speed endurance than Lyles he may be the only one that could crack 19.19 without a sub-9.7 100m, maybe if he cracks 9.75 in the 100m he'll be able to pull off a 19.1x in the 200m, I would love to see that!
Luck will also play part. Had Bolt had perfect luck, I could see his times to never be broken. But he had negative wind on both of his 200m WRs! He could've got close to 19.00 in perfect conditions. Thus I think the current people can have chance if they find themselves on their best condition, on a +1.5s wind race.
bolts strength obviously wasnt his speed endurance, but he still had pretty crazy endurance considering he ran 9.27 and 9.32 into -0.3 and -0.9 headwinds... with perfect conditions (which is very unlikely, but still possible), he definitely couldve broken into the 18.9x range considering he missed months of training in '09 due to a car accident, obviously had to run 7 rounds prior to the 200 final, and the bad wind condition
Seems pretty realistic takes but erriyon is still so young and if tebogo shaves some time off his start he could get close and Lyle’s if everything comes together I would say he has a decent chance
I don't know who's going to set the new 200m record, but I know for sure Fred Kerley is gonna break the 100m record because he said he will. There's no stopping him....
My money is on Tebogo, but only until Gout Gout turns 20 I don't think Noah will break any world record. He uses too much power while closing, but Tebogo is just so smooth and that shows how much more he can get out of that speed tank.
IDK about gout gout, he could just follow the same trend as Knighton (get fast early and peak early) the guy said it himself that he didn't want to be compared to Usain bolt and I can see why, the pressure of everyone expecting you to be the next world record breaker must be a disadvantage because anything less will disappoint some people.
@@WilliamCrowther-b9yStill, at 16, Gout Gout is the one that has the highest upside. PS, I was at that Queensland All Schools Athletics meet where Gout Gout got 20.19s, as my son was competing in the long jump and high jump (the age group above Gout Gout).
@@StickIQ They wouldn't be recognized as the GOAT though. Someone needs the WR + the threepeat at Olympics or they need a WR so ridiculous (like 18.99) that it's undisputed that they're the best.
Noah honestly still has a chance. He smashed his pb after loosing to De Grasse/Bednarek in 2021, since he lost to Tebogo this time. He could come back hard to break his pb once again. Hot take but its my opinion
You know at one point people were saying Erriyon was going to be the one because he managed 19.49 at 18 years old, but since then he's become a 19.7 specialist. So I wonder if we should exercise caution when getting excited over young phenoms because they seem to peak super early and then never live up to the hype later
The pressure that comes with being a Junior record holder is that the media and people will always be watching their every move and calling them the next Usain Bolt I think it just puts a lot of pressure on them I'm guessing if Knighton didn't have his issues that he was dealing with I think he would've ran 19.6x
Yeah this is exactly what I was thinking. I mean I’d love for tebogo to do it and all but like let’s leave these world record predictions alone until someone is actually getting really close (like in the 19.3/.2 range)
pressure off him a bit now as a 16yr old Aussie kid just ran 20.04 on the weekend and he is being called the next Bolt and even Bolt himself has referenced the kid runs like him
Bednarek has run the 3rd most sub-20s in history behind only Lyles/Bolt. He's also ran many 19.6s this year, so while it was a 1 round race, it wasn't a 1-off, Bednarek it's pretty consistent near that time. Knighton that was for sure a 1-off race, his next best is a high 19.6 & his SB has slowed down gradually each year for 2 years afterwards.
@@richardgallimore5976 I’m just pointing out how these 4 guys ran their 200m PBs. That’s all. • King Noah Lyles ran 19.31 with 3 rounds in 2022. • Letsile Tebogo ran 19.46 with 6 rounds (3 rounds in 100m + 3 rounds in 200m) • Erriyon Knighton ran 19.49 in a 1-off race (1 round race) • Kenny Bednarek ran 19.57 in a 1-off race (1 round race) These are facts. Simple. I didn’t downplay their performances/consistencies.
Running 6 rounds and still able to clock 19.46 means supreme fitness ..i believe tebogo will run 19.2 this yr his strength is what separates him from everyone else
@@Someone-hi1nt Guess I'm dumb, lol. I always thought a "1-off race" meant an outlier, something they can only achieve once & haven't got close too since. Or maybe I'm not dumb, the definition I found online was: "A happening that occurs only once and is not repeated". That sounds closer to my understanding, saying something is a one-off is implying it won't be repeated as in "Bednerak ran 19.57, but he won't go that fast again".
The answer is none of the above. I don't believe that any of them can do it. While I believe that there is always a chance, it just won't be anytime soon. The 100m is even more daunting and I can't see a record in that event for decades.
I agree. The 200 could possibly be broken by Tebogo under unicorn perfect conditions in the future, but highly unlikely. The 9.58 100. Just won't be touched for decades period. Nobody is even close.
Tebogo having 15 when he started running he just started running the 200m seriously in 2023 is insane especially when we consider the fact that he's the only one amongst these guys who has been doubling his entire career
I honestly think Tebogo has a better chance of breaking the 400m record than the 200m. He certainly has a chance of breaking the 200m record, but I don't know if he has the raw speed to do it, which is evidenced by his 100m times. His strength appears to be speed endurance over raw top speed, which is what makes him so great at the 200m, and which is what also allowed him to run the second fastest 4x400m split in history without even training for a 400m and after running all the rounds of the 100m and 200m at the Olympics. Speed endurance is his strength, and I think he'd be wise to focus more a 200/400 double rather than a 100/200 double.
I think we need to look at 2026 as possibly a year of World Record attempts in some events including in the men's 200m. The World Ultimate Championships will be introduced and is in a different format than the usual World Athletics Championships as it will feature only the best of the best from the WA ranking system. I think this event will be very interesting as I think some athletes will focus on one specific event throughout the season to either better their PB or reach some historic times (National/Area/World Records). So I think these four, if healthy, may do something like that for 2026 and who knows, a WR in the 200m may happen. And the same could said even other events too, you may never know. Lastly, I think it's important to remember that records are meant to broken so I definitely wouldn't count out any athlete from breaking records in their events unless they're super injury prone and/or until they hang their spikes/shoes up. So no discouraging comments about older athletes in their late twenties to early thirties or athletes who don't PB every year, let's be patient and play it out.
Tebogo has the best chance of the group once he improves his strength (he's still relatively slender among sprinters). His form is very impressive. Even with imroved strength though, I think Bolt's combination of body composition (ie heigjt and relatively long legs) and his incredible strength/endurance are a once in a lifetime combination.
Noah lyles vs Tebogo is slowly becoming an interesting rivalry.. so I wouldn't be surprised if both of them push each other over edge, then knighton comes in vs Tebogo
Meet Gout Gout, the Australian sprint starlet turning heads at 16-years-old You will have seen him on social media for his blistering pace, but who is the teenager out of Queensland, Australia who is the talk of the athletics world and does not want to be compared to Usain Bolt? Gout Gout, the 16-year-old Australian who has been taking the athletics world by storm. Gout Gout: the boy so good, they named him twice. The Australian sprinter has caught the attention of the athletics world after a stunning 100m run in Brisbane which has gone viral on social media. You may not recognise the name yet, but you will know if you have seen that clip of his incredible pace. Who knows, he may well be competing in that very city at the Olympic Games eight years from now. Get to know Gout Gout, the 16-year-old sprinting sensation out of Queensland. Gout was born in 2007 to South Sudanese parents, who had emigrated to Australia a few years before he was born. He has always showed promise as a sprinter; as a 15-year-old, he not only won the men’s under-18 200m final at the 2023 Australian Junior Athletics Championships, but set a national under-20 record as a teenager. Gout also ran a stunning 10.29s over 100m in March 2024, blitzing the opposition and finding an astounding burst of acceleration in the final 50m to further hammer home his advantage. To put that time into context, if the 16-year-old had ran that time at Paris 2024, he would have made it through the preliminary rounds and into the first round of the men’s 100m event. Gout holds the Australian under-16 national record in both the men’s 100m and 200m races, setting personal bests in both events this year. Gout compared to Olympic great Usain Bolt Gout has been compared to the greatest sprinter of all time, eight-time Olympic champion Usain Bolt. It is not easy for a 16-year-old to have that pressure, but equally it speaks of just how highly held he is in the eyes of the athletics world. Speaking about the comparisons in April, Gout said (as per Fox Sports), “It’s pretty cool because Usain Bolt is arguably the greatest athlete of all time and just being compared to him is a great feeling. Obviously I’m Gout Gout so I’m trying make a name for myself. If I can get to the level he was that would be a great achievement.” The teenager will be 20-years-old by the time the next Olympic Games come round at LA 2028, and though it is still early days in Gout’s career, he will surely have his eyes focused on the States. Even better, the following Olympiad takes place in his home state of Queensland, Brisbane 2032, by which time he will have plenty more experience under his belt. The future is certainly bright for Gout Gout, a name you will no doubt hear again.
I think in 2025 and maybe 2026 lyles has the better shot, but in years beyond it’s definitely tebogo. Lyles has probably 2-3 more years of top running while tebego has like 8-9 more years, so unless lyles runs sub 19 in the next 2 years, im gonna call tebogo having the WR and maybe sub 19 by the time hes done
If Noah put’s the same focus and effort, that allowed him to win 100m Olympic Gold Medal, into the 200m he will break his 2022 200m American Record (AR) very soon and has the best chance to break the 200m WR first. Based on these factors: 1. Top end speed (27+ MPH) 2. Speed endurance (70m of 100m @ 26+ MPH) 3. Consistency (40 200m timings under 20s [200m King] 6 more than Bolt) Noah’s 1st half of his AR 200m was 10.15s (slower than Bolt by 0.23) and final 100m was 9.16s (faster than Bolt by 0.11). Note: Noah’s SB 100m was 9.95s (0.2 difference of 200m 1st half). Bolt’s 9.58s 100m 2009 WR & 19.19s 200m WR (9.92s 1st half & 9.27s 2nd half) 4 days later (0.34 difference of 200m 1st half). Fast forward to 9.79 Noah and add 0.2 to his SB 100m then 1st half of 200m time would be 9.99. If we add 9.99 & 9.16 we get 19.15 (even if we add 9.99+9.19=19.18) NEW 200m WRs! Note: 9.99+9.2=19.19 and equals WR. While Noah has the best chance to be first to set new 200m record it will not last long because Tebogo’s has the next best chance!
13 minutes that could have been 4 minutes. Clearly it's Tebogo right now, Knighton after him and later on Gout Gout that has the most realistic chance.
Tebogo is the only candidate with a real chance, especially age-based consideration. Lyles' capitulation at the Olympics was more than "Covid". It was mental. He wouldn't have run if he couldn't believe he could actually do it...and then failed.
All i Will say is progress in track is not always linear. People seem to have gout gout nailed on as the heir apparent for the world record but I would be careful about this. We’ve seen way too many young kids hyped up for running really quick times in their youth, only to never coke close to those times again. Just let people develop at their own pace. Being fast as a junior doesn’t guarantee success as a senior
Gout Gout has the most potential to break Usain Bolt’s 200-meter record, though he’s not ready yet. His raw talent is unmatched, and with a few more years of development, he could get there. I once thought Erriyon Knighton was the one to do it, but after last year’s slump, he hasn’t kept pace. By now, he should be on par with Tebogo, but he’s fallen behind.
None of them can do it at their current level. Tebogo looks like the most likely to not have reached his peak yet. If he continues to improve he might be able to do it, but most likely he’s getting very close to his peak already.
The man with 2 first names in 4 years will be in his prime. 4 years to work on his start. 4 years to get stronger in the legs and chest. 4 years to perfect his run. Gout gout will be Australia's not only first medal winner, but the gold medalist and world record holder. This man is insane
There's multiple people currently running, who could beat it on their perfect day. Lyles, Tebogo ofc seem like the likeliest in next few years, but there's few others who have already doing 19.50ish times so can't really count them out either.
If Kishane stays healthy, he’ll own the 100 in ‘25 and ‘26 … I doubt he’ll be able to put down a Bolt-beating time, but I do think he’ll relegate Lyles to second-or-worse starting next year. Lyles best 100’s are behind him.
If Tebogo continues his trend of improvement, becomes stronger (which is highly probable), stays physically and mentally healthy and stays hungry for the record, maybe not in 2 but 4 years he should be pretty close to breaking or will break the record. Does noah have potential for growth? Yes, but comprehensively, tebogo has the edge where potential is concerned. I am notaiming to disregard the other athletes but tebogo has been gaining on and arguably has or is about to surpass lyles. Either way i hope from the four that they push each other to do the best they can for the sport.
I agree with you I just think this year was messy for him with the things he was dealing with You could see he's early season races that he was ready I feel he could've gone 19.6x for he's season best
Great presentation as usual. Nice charts and graphs. Now, even with the juiced up track, and the juiced up shoes, none of those 4 can break the 100m or 200m. In this last olympic, the winning times for the 100m and the 200m, were slower than the times in which Bolt ran the SEMI-FINAL of most of his races.
Tobogo and Knighton, can still improve, they have the advantage. Knighton has more development to come on his body, if he wants it bad enough. Tobogo is a freak and I believe he will get closest to the GOAT's world record, but breaking it, 🧐
King Kenny will continue to run consistently but I don't think he will get further than 19.3-19.4 and even then 19.3 is a stretch. I don't think it will be him. Erriyon is a bit of a wild card. He's the youngest and has already run a 19.49 but he hasn't got close to that since, running consistent 19.8s. He could well have it in him to slowly progress down to consistently hitting around 19.5 and have an absolute belter where he gets really close, but I think he's focused on learning how to become a serial winner rather than break records. I hope he does run that belter, it will be amazing to watch. Lyles is currently in his prime and is a serial winner, Olympic 200m finals be damned. He's gotten the closest so far and has done a lot of work on his biggest shortcoming but his PB dates back to 2022 now and his actions seem to suggest a shift of focus to winning medals rather than breaking records, talk and writing on shoes is cheap. That loss to Tebogo could be the push he needs to really attack the 200m hard again and push his times back down. I hope he still has the years to properly attack it. Tebogo is the one with the best chance within the next 5 years I think. Age is on his side and he seems to be able to run medal contention times in whatever sprint event he wants at a moments notice. The man we saw win the Olympic final was a different beast to the one we've seen ease up during 9.9s in the 100m. I hope he keeps that fire in his belly and aims for the edge of the universe. If anyone can reach it, it's him.
Tebogo certainly will, I honestly expect him to dominate the 2025 season and break the 200m World Record, even the 400m is at risk. A good winter can do so much at his age, Lyles also can improve. But Lyles can lose to Tebogo and Tebogo only against himself next season.
In 2017 I did some research trying to figure out the "prime" age for physical performance. Obviously it can be very subjective, but I checked all the world records in athletics, swimming and Olympic weightlifting, calculating the age of the athletes at the time of setting the world record. The median age was 24 years and 242 days.
The real problem with breaking Bolt's record is not talent, it is the absence of the record breaker in the races. When Bolt broke his first record in the 100m, he was running against Asafa Powell, someone who held the record, meaning someone who could run at world record time. So to beat such a person, you have to break the record. The benefit after breaking the record is that you only have yourself to run against. When Bolt set 19.19 in 200m, he was the record holder, that way he was the one to beat, he had ability to run at world record time, so to break it, he just had to train better than before. If you are the record holder and you train harder, you become better and faster than the record holder, which means you keep breaking the records, moreover you know exactly how the record was broken, so you know what to improve. This is why we see Sydney McLaughlin breaking her own record over and over. The current crop of people do not have anyone who can run at the current world record on a normal day, so no matter how competitive they become, simply inching closer to the record beats everyone. Lyles probably does not have anymore 19.3x left in him, so he cant push Tebogo towards the 19.20s. The only true hope is if Knighton recovers and is able to run at least 19.25 in the same field as someone like Tebogo. In short, Tebogo can break the record, but we need someone who can run very close to the record itself. Competition is the problem, not speed, notice how Lyles and the Jamaican guy been hiding. Maybe not hiding, but their absence lowered the level of competition. Bolt's record will be broken the moment any two people can compete at < 19:30.
I mean, someone is probably going to break 19.19 one day. Maybe not from this generation or the next, but it's going to happen. When I was growing up, Johnson's 19.32 was seen as unreachable. I don't think anyone had even hit 19.60 before Bolt broke the record. Everything's impossible until it's done.
Anyone you think could break the world record in any event has a finite probability of being in a car accident tomorrow and being paralyzed. Yes, probability and statistics can calculate the probability of that happening, but the thing about statistics is that it can not tell you when it will happwn within a given average petiodicity. Stastics can tell you that a specific outcome will occur a certain number of times in a give time span, or for a given number of opportunities. But, that number is an average over many time spans or sets of opportunities. You can have 3 100 year rainfalls in a decade, but over a 100,000 years, the "average" time of occurence will be once in every 100 years. Statistics implies nothing about timing, except on an average basis. In relibility engineering, we had a saying: buses always run in twos or threes. They leave the terminal every 20 minutes, but randomly catch up with the bus in front because the passenger load is sporadic.
It'll be Tebogo. He's 7 years younger than Lyles, and he's gonna be on a whole nother level of 200 speed moving into 2025, assuming no major injuries or sicknesses. Lyles better be prepared to get smoked, or it'll break him mid-season moving into the Olympics
Letsile Tebogo is the clear favorite. He has very efficient running style, looks more like Bolt, he is younger, and had a better season than everybody else. What he did at Olympics is unprecedented. You’re giving edge to Noah because he is from USA and he is loud and talking about it. I think it more depends on which way Tebogo will go. If he decides to go for 400m WR he will has less chance to get 200m WR.. I hope both of these two athletes break it, it would be awesome :D....
Remember that Lyles ran a 19.31 whilst only ever going below 9.8 once in his career,Bolt ran a 19.19 as a 9.58 100m runner,my point is that a runner of bolts quality if he had a different approach to the 200m he might have even ran below 19.10, possibly even sub 19,I definitely think that an athlete with enough speed endurance that can run mid 9.7's here and there can definitely break Bolts record
I think Tebogo has the best chance especially if he increases his 400m strength and speed endurance. Tebogo runs so effortlessly fast. I think the 200m world record will end up around 19.10 seconds
Tebogo has never stagnated like Lyles!! Possibly Tebogo can go below 19.4 in 2025.. After that there is an opportunity to attack WR in 2026. Then Lyles is over. I think with improved strength and start that Gout Gout will be the one with the greatest potential to break Bolt's record within 5 years.
I don't know anything for sure but I do know noah lyles is a great athlete and even though he might be 28 at the world champs 2025 he is healthy training hard and has a great chance
Not until someone of Bolt’s physical build or slightly bigger comes along will the record be broken. It’s the second 100 meter stride that will break it because that’s where Bolt set it.
11:12 Whilst some sources say Lyles closed his final 100m of his 19.31 in 9.16, other (often more credible) sources say he split around 9.24 for his final 100 (and went out in 10.07). I myself got this time when looking at his race however I get I can’t do it as accurately as the professional ‘split measure-ers’. 11:37 Whilst Tebogo may have closed in 9.34 in his 19.46 in the Olympics (easing at the line), he closed in 9.25 in his 19.55 run in Zurich, post-Olympics. He also ran that time after many races beforehand after Paris and on a wet track. Given ideal conditions Tebogo can probably close in 9.20 or under. Lyles also hasn’t shown any signs of improving on his 19.31, before or since 2022. Since he put on half a kilogram of muscle between 2022 and 2023 (from what I remember, correct me if I’m wrong) his 100 times have improved slightly however his 200 times have slowed slightly. His 19.31 was when he was at his absolute best, with a hunger to win (revenge from Tokyo), a home crowd championship and good competition (19.49 Knighton and 19.7/8 Bednarek). Lyles hasn’t shown that he can run sub-19.50 whilst doubling - he failed at 2023 World Championships, 2024 Trials and 2024 Olympics (albeit with Covid). He in fact hasn’t run sub 19.50 since 2023 and that would’ve been a high 19.5 if there hadn’t been a strong tailwind (+1.6m/s tailwind in his 19.47 at the London Diamond League; I would know because I was there in person). Tebogo on the other hand, as well as being young, is still showing good progression, despite what it looks like. His 19.50 in 2023 was the same race as Lyles’ 19.47 and had the same +1.6m/s tailwind. It was fairly windy that day, I remember. If you convert his 19.50 (+1.6m/s) to 0.0m/s wind he would’ve run 19.62. In his 19.46 run (+0.4m/s) he would’ve run 19.49 with no wind - whilst beating his chest. So he’s improved his 200m time by over a tenth of a second from last year if you use rough estimates of converting winds. If Tebogo can improve his first 100 on the bend - not his start (unlike Lyles, since Tebogo has a very good start) - from 10.12 to 10.05; totally attainable, then go from closing in 9.25 on a wet track and whilst fatigued, to 9.20 on a dry track and in good conditions then there could be the potential for a 10.05 + 9.20 for him. I get it’s extremely difficult to put the perfect race together - something Tebogo’s not done yet - but I definitely see the potential for him to do so in the not too distant future.
I don't think your analysis of Noah is accurate Noah Lyles has clearly improved between 2023 and 2024, and any claim to the contrary overlooks crucial details. In 2024, despite having a slower reaction time of 0.17 seconds compared to 0.14 seconds in 2023, he managed to run faster, finishing in 9.79 seconds versus 9.83 seconds in Budapest. This means that Lyles lost around 0.03 seconds at the start but compensated during the race itself, demonstrating that his performance on the track has improved. His mid-race splits, particularly between 50m and 70m, were faster in 2024, with 0.83 seconds for the 50-60m segment and 0.82 seconds for 60-70m, compared to 0.83 seconds for both segments in 2023. These gains highlight his ability to maximize his top-end speed better than before. While the +1.0 m/s tailwind in 2024 could suggest favorable conditions, it does not fully account for his faster time, as his slower reaction time countered much of the wind’s potential benefit. Furthermore, Lyles’ ability to maintain his speed in the final 40 meters confirms his exceptional endurance and race execution, which are consistent with his progression as an athlete. In fact, had his reaction time in 2024 matched that of 2023, he likely would have run closer to 9.76 seconds or better. This evidence demonstrates that Noah has not stagnated but continues to improve in key aspects of his performance, including speed and endurance,
@@samuelzobo4961 Ok, well if you’re using his reaction time as an excuse as to why he didn’t go faster then that’s just fan-girling. Obviously you could make the claim that if he’d had the same RT as in 2023 then he would’ve run 9.76, but at the end of the day the reaction time’s part of the race, as much as the top speed and the dip and the first few steps. You might as well say that Blake’s faster than Bolt over 200m ‘bEcAUSe His REacTiOn tImE wAs sO SlOw’ but it’s obviously Blake’s fault that he didn’t react in the way he did. As for your splits, 10m splits often aren’t very accurate anyway; the splits say Simbine split 0.81 from 60-70m - this would tie the fastest legal 10m split ever (along with Bolt). Do you really think Simbine split 0.81 from 60-70m when the rest of his splits were supposedly 0.84,0.85 and 0.86 (from around 60m onwards)? Again, Lyles ‘faster 10m splits’ not only could be incorrect, but also are only faster because he had more wind in 2024. If you really wanted, you could say that if Lyles (and Kishane) had had the same reaction time as Kerley in the final, they both would’ve run 9.72. But they didn’t. That 0.03 that he made up (and the extra 0.04 - going from 9.83 - 9.79) came from the better wind in Paris. MAYBE you could say he has improved a bit in 2024 as opposed to 2023, since in the London Diamond League he ran 9.81 with a -0.4m/s headwind (if I remember correctly). That equates to a 9.79-ish if the wind’s 0.0m/s. But this isn’t really talking about Lyles’ 100m abilities; he has shown some improvements pretty much every year over 100m when he’s actually focused on it to an extent, but this is about the 200m. The fact that he’s put on a visible amount of muscle since 2022 literally emphasises my point that he’s gotten slower over 200m. He’s not as light as he needs to be to break the world record, or even to break 19.40, let alone the American Record. The main point of my comment was to point out that Lyles is almost certainly not going to break the 200m world record ever, as much as I’d love for him to. At the end of the day, Lyles will want to retain his title of ‘world’s fastest man’ and therefore won’t ever only focus on the 200m again (like he did in 2022), which could result in him not only losing his 200m World Championship crown, but also his 100 crown.
Given the typical age factor, Lyles and Bednarek don't have much left in them. Let's see how it plays out for them. I'm not sure what to make out for Knighton. He'll need some kind of breakthrough. I'd rather see the record remain intact.
That strange upright running style must work for the 200 and 400. So If you’re going to say Tebogo that would make sense I remember how much they picked at MJ’s running style and Tebogo definitely doesn’t look like a world class sprinter but his time begs to differ! 💪 Lyles still has time. Justin Gatlin changed the game on old age and short sprints. 💪 miss that dude on the track but he’s on social media and people had him wrong the whole time. He’s not who they had him made out to be
its essentially down to knighton upping his game more, tebogo keeping up with his improvement, lyles clutching the 200m wrbefore anyone else has a chance or maybe kenny. If its not those 4 its unlikely that anybody currently competing at the top will break it.
If Lyles runs a pb in the 2025 season; showing he can combine his 100 speed and has returned to his 200 best strength, then I can see him getting close in 2026. If he hasn’t broken it by 2026, then I’m looking at Tebogo. But I have no idea what Tebogo is going to focus on, so that record may not fall if he doesn’t go for it
Gout Gout is 16 years old. In 2032 he will be 23 and running in his home state of Queensland. If he progresses at anything like his current rate between now and then, he will be nearly unbeatable. 👍👍👍👍
My predictions tend to be optimistic, but Tebogo is the only one I can see potentially beating Bolt's record. Any predictions are difficult, but with athletes as young as Tebogo and Knighton, trying to guess almost an entire career before them is obviously impossible. Look at how many athletes break NCAA records and look to have amazing potential, but their pro careers never amount to much. Tebogo does at least have consistency and progression on his side, as well as still being really young. If Lyles sticks to his current goals of being the face of athletics, i.e. wanting to win 100m and 200m at global championships, I can see him lowering his 100m PB to maybe 9.75, but I doubt he will beat his 19.31, although he may be able to go sub 19.4 again. Kenny B is an amazing athlete, who continues to improve over time, but his age and rate of progression don't put him on a good enough trigectory to challenge the record. I can still see him running low 19.4's and potentially getting a global gold in the 200m if things go his way. Knighton running a 19.49 at 18 and still being only 20 suggests amazing potential, but after his controversy this year and a couple of seasons of not running close to 19.49, it's difficult to be over confident about what his future holds. Obviously the potential is there, but whether or not he will fulfill that potential is very much up for debate. I could easily imagine him becoming the dominant 200m runner in the future running 19.2's and possibly challening the record, but I can equally see him never beating his 19.49. Tebogo has the most potential across all sprint distances and seems to have the most natural ability, but seems to be less focused. I would say a 400m WR is more likely for him than the shorter sprints, but I wouldn't rule anything out. At the moment his 100m is his least competitive event, but if he goes the Noah route and focuses more on his starts and drive phase, I can see that lowering his 100m and 200m PB's by over 0.1, but that still puts him a long way short of Bolt's record. That said, he's only 21, still progressing and he may not peak until his late 20's, so even Bolt's 100m record could be a potential target, but at the moment I would say low 19.3's or high 19.2's are likely to be the best he will achieve in the 200m.
My predictions:
- Tebogo will run under Yohan Blake's 19.26 within the next few years, but never break Bolt's 19.19
- Lyles has one more 19.3x or high 19.2x in him, but he won't break Yohan Blake's 19.26
- Bednerak will be the most consistent of the bunch in the 19.4x ~ 19.6x range
- Knighton will never best his 19.49, but may run a 19.5x, & a few more 19.6x's before retiring
Probably pretty boring takes, but I feel like they're realistic, so that's my guess. Tebogo has the best shot, but 19.19 is crazy. Bolt was lacking some speed endurance (if Lyles a 9.8x 100m runner at the time did a 19.31, then a 9.58 100m runner with the same speed endurance could go 18.99 honestly or 19.0x), but he's just way too fast for everyone else. Yohan Blake was the only one with an actual chance & he had a 9.69 PB. I don't think a runner without a sub 9.70 100m has the speed to pull off a 19.18 or better even if they have the endurance. Bolt being more than a tenth of a second faster than anyone else at the 100m is just too much speed to overcome imo.
Tebogo does have even more speed endurance than Lyles as he is the 300m WR holder & has run a 43.0x 400m split, but he's at 9.8x, not 9.7x. Since Tebogo has more speed endurance than Lyles he may be the only one that could crack 19.19 without a sub-9.7 100m, maybe if he cracks 9.75 in the 100m he'll be able to pull off a 19.1x in the 200m, I would love to see that!
well said
Luck will also play part. Had Bolt had perfect luck, I could see his times to never be broken. But he had negative wind on both of his 200m WRs! He could've got close to 19.00 in perfect conditions.
Thus I think the current people can have chance if they find themselves on their best condition, on a +1.5s wind race.
bolts strength obviously wasnt his speed endurance, but he still had pretty crazy endurance considering he ran 9.27 and 9.32 into -0.3 and -0.9 headwinds... with perfect conditions (which is very unlikely, but still possible), he definitely couldve broken into the 18.9x range considering he missed months of training in '09 due to a car accident, obviously had to run 7 rounds prior to the 200 final, and the bad wind condition
That’s a fair assessment
Seems pretty realistic takes but erriyon is still so young and if tebogo shaves some time off his start he could get close and Lyle’s if everything comes together I would say he has a decent chance
I don't know who's going to set the new 200m record, but I know for sure Fred Kerley is gonna break the 100m record because he said he will. There's no stopping him....
fred kerley is my glorious
😂😂nice joke bro
The only thing stopping him is himself tripping over his own damn shoes 🤣🤣
"Talk your sh*t man." - Fred Kerley
… are you serious rn
My money is on Tebogo, but only until Gout Gout turns 20
I don't think Noah will break any world record. He uses too much power while closing, but Tebogo is just so smooth and that shows how much more he can get out of that speed tank.
A lot of people go belly up trying to equal or beat records as anyone remember Elaine Thompson and Mboma
IDK about gout gout, he could just follow the same trend as Knighton (get fast early and peak early) the guy said it himself that he didn't want to be compared to Usain bolt and I can see why, the pressure of everyone expecting you to be the next world record breaker must be a disadvantage because anything less will disappoint some people.
@@WilliamCrowther-b9yStill, at 16, Gout Gout is the one that has the highest upside. PS, I was at that Queensland All Schools Athletics meet where Gout Gout got 20.19s, as my son was competing in the long jump and high jump (the age group above Gout Gout).
Gout gout just ran a 20.04 at age 16. I think he has potential
bolt's WR race was with -0.3 wind
After 7 rounds of races... recovering from the flu...
If someone gets 19.18 with +2.0 wind they will be officially recognised as the 200m world record holder so...
@@StickIQ They wouldn't be recognized as the GOAT though. Someone needs the WR + the threepeat at Olympics or they need a WR so ridiculous (like 18.99) that it's undisputed that they're the best.
@@richardgallimore5976 absolutely true
@@datname1939 Yohan Blake was recovering from the flu when he ran his 9.69s -0.1 m/s
Gout Gout from Australia so fast is parents named him twice a 16-year-old kid just ran a 20.29
20.04 now
@@namwens1 I know seriously good hey sub 20 seconds very soon
@@matiusclicarelli700 I reckon in a few years we will see an 18!
Gout Gout will win the 2028 Olympic 200m final when he is 20y.
Nah it was20.4
The bro "gout gout"💯👌gon break whatever record is up at the time. He's the only one ppl gon b talking about🎉🎉🎉
Na
😂😂😂😂
Noah honestly still has a chance. He smashed his pb after loosing to De Grasse/Bednarek in 2021, since he lost to Tebogo this time. He could come back hard to break his pb once again. Hot take but its my opinion
this is a luke warm take
@@LeonEdwardsFitnessOfficial Luke warm how exactly?
@@TheWayWithKhuwayne because its true
here's a hot take: noah lyles is cooked
@@LeonEdwardsFitnessOfficial I'm asking how, what do you mean exactly?
This makes me think back to that breakdown you did on Yohan Blake's 200, when he had a poor start, but had a blistering time...
GOUT GOUT is gonna be a whole New Story.... 2028 Olympics will be 🔥 😊
Gout's top speed is wild.
@@JƏĐ And the 2032 Olympics are at his home town.
@@brendanh8193 lovely thank you 😊 🙏
💯💯💯
You know at one point people were saying Erriyon was going to be the one because he managed 19.49 at 18 years old, but since then he's become a 19.7 specialist. So I wonder if we should exercise caution when getting excited over young phenoms because they seem to peak super early and then never live up to the hype later
The pressure that comes with being a Junior record holder is that the media and people will always be watching their every move and calling them the next Usain Bolt I think it just puts a lot of pressure on them
I'm guessing if Knighton didn't have his issues that he was dealing with I think he would've ran 19.6x
Yeah this is exactly what I was thinking. I mean I’d love for tebogo to do it and all but like let’s leave these world record predictions alone until someone is actually getting really close (like in the 19.3/.2 range)
pressure off him a bit now as a 16yr old Aussie kid just ran 20.04 on the weekend and he is being called the next Bolt and even Bolt himself has referenced the kid runs like him
Gout Gout ⏳
Amen.
Yes
Am from Botswana 🇧🇼 and even if Tebogo is my home boy that Sudanese boy is going to dominate for a long time and yes he is going to break bolt record
Amazing to have an Aussie as the WR holder
I'll be contrary and say none of them will break ANY of Bolt's records. Side-eye at Fred Kerley, too... 🤣🤣
Agreed, all dreams. Will not happen. Lyles will be dethroned. Will not happen.
Gout Gout just beat his U16 200m record 👀👌
I know its so early and hes got a long way to go... but wow his a diamond in the rough!
Not contrary, but sensible.
King Noah Lyles: 19.31 (3 rounds)
Letsile Tebogo: 19.46 (6 rounds)
Erriyon Knighton: 19.49 (1-off race)
Kenny Bednarek: 19.57 (1-off race)
Bednarek has run the 3rd most sub-20s in history behind only Lyles/Bolt. He's also ran many 19.6s this year, so while it was a 1 round race, it wasn't a 1-off, Bednarek it's pretty consistent near that time.
Knighton that was for sure a 1-off race, his next best is a high 19.6 & his SB has slowed down gradually each year for 2 years afterwards.
@@richardgallimore5976 I’m just pointing out how these 4 guys ran their 200m PBs. That’s all.
• King Noah Lyles ran 19.31 with 3 rounds in 2022.
• Letsile Tebogo ran 19.46 with 6 rounds (3 rounds in 100m + 3 rounds in 200m)
• Erriyon Knighton ran 19.49 in a 1-off race (1 round race)
• Kenny Bednarek ran 19.57 in a 1-off race (1 round race)
These are facts. Simple. I didn’t downplay their performances/consistencies.
@@richardgallimore5976 a 1 round race literally is a 1-off race lol, what does "while it was a 1 round race, i wasn't a 1-off" mean
Running 6 rounds and still able to clock 19.46 means supreme fitness ..i believe tebogo will run 19.2 this yr his strength is what separates him from everyone else
@@Someone-hi1nt Guess I'm dumb, lol. I always thought a "1-off race" meant an outlier, something they can only achieve once & haven't got close too since.
Or maybe I'm not dumb, the definition I found online was: "A happening that occurs only once and is not repeated". That sounds closer to my understanding, saying something is a one-off is implying it won't be repeated as in "Bednerak ran 19.57, but he won't go that fast again".
The answer is none of the above. I don't believe that any of them can do it. While I believe that there is always a chance, it just won't be anytime soon. The 100m is even more daunting and I can't see a record in that event for decades.
I agree. The 200 could possibly be broken by Tebogo under unicorn perfect conditions in the future, but highly unlikely. The 9.58 100. Just won't be touched for decades period. Nobody is even close.
Gout Gout
To be a legend you have to beat the legend's record, everything else is speculation 😅
Tebogo having 15 when he started running he just started running the 200m seriously in 2023 is insane especially when we consider the fact that he's the only one amongst these guys who has been doubling his entire career
I honestly think Tebogo has a better chance of breaking the 400m record than the 200m. He certainly has a chance of breaking the 200m record, but I don't know if he has the raw speed to do it, which is evidenced by his 100m times. His strength appears to be speed endurance over raw top speed, which is what makes him so great at the 200m, and which is what also allowed him to run the second fastest 4x400m split in history without even training for a 400m and after running all the rounds of the 100m and 200m at the Olympics. Speed endurance is his strength, and I think he'd be wise to focus more a 200/400 double rather than a 100/200 double.
How can a 300m world record holder not training for 400m?
Tebogo as the best progression
I think we need to look at 2026 as possibly a year of World Record attempts in some events including in the men's 200m. The World Ultimate Championships will be introduced and is in a different format than the usual World Athletics Championships as it will feature only the best of the best from the WA ranking system. I think this event will be very interesting as I think some athletes will focus on one specific event throughout the season to either better their PB or reach some historic times (National/Area/World Records).
So I think these four, if healthy, may do something like that for 2026 and who knows, a WR in the 200m may happen. And the same could said even other events too, you may never know.
Lastly, I think it's important to remember that records are meant to broken so I definitely wouldn't count out any athlete from breaking records in their events unless they're super injury prone and/or until they hang their spikes/shoes up. So no discouraging comments about older athletes in their late twenties to early thirties or athletes who don't PB every year, let's be patient and play it out.
Tebogo has the best chance of the group once he improves his strength (he's still relatively slender among sprinters). His form is very impressive. Even with imroved strength though, I think Bolt's combination of body composition (ie heigjt and relatively long legs) and his incredible strength/endurance are a once in a lifetime combination.
Noah lyles vs Tebogo is slowly becoming an interesting rivalry.. so I wouldn't be surprised if both of them push each other over edge, then knighton comes in vs Tebogo
Meet Gout Gout, the Australian sprint starlet turning heads at 16-years-old
You will have seen him on social media for his blistering pace, but who is the teenager out of Queensland, Australia who is the talk of the athletics world and does not want to be compared to Usain Bolt?
Gout Gout, the 16-year-old Australian who has been taking the athletics world by storm.
Gout Gout: the boy so good, they named him twice.
The Australian sprinter has caught the attention of the athletics world after a stunning 100m run in Brisbane which has gone viral on social media.
You may not recognise the name yet, but you will know if you have seen that clip of his incredible pace. Who knows, he may well be competing in that very city at the Olympic Games eight years from now.
Get to know Gout Gout, the 16-year-old sprinting sensation out of Queensland.
Gout was born in 2007 to South Sudanese parents, who had emigrated to Australia a few years before he was born.
He has always showed promise as a sprinter; as a 15-year-old, he not only won the men’s under-18 200m final at the 2023 Australian Junior Athletics Championships, but set a national under-20 record as a teenager.
Gout also ran a stunning 10.29s over 100m in March 2024, blitzing the opposition and finding an astounding burst of acceleration in the final 50m to further hammer home his advantage.
To put that time into context, if the 16-year-old had ran that time at Paris 2024, he would have made it through the preliminary rounds and into the first round of the men’s 100m event.
Gout holds the Australian under-16 national record in both the men’s 100m and 200m races, setting personal bests in both events this year.
Gout compared to Olympic great Usain Bolt
Gout has been compared to the greatest sprinter of all time, eight-time Olympic champion Usain Bolt.
It is not easy for a 16-year-old to have that pressure, but equally it speaks of just how highly held he is in the eyes of the athletics world.
Speaking about the comparisons in April, Gout said (as per Fox Sports), “It’s pretty cool because Usain Bolt is arguably the greatest athlete of all time and just being compared to him is a great feeling. Obviously I’m Gout Gout so I’m trying make a name for myself. If I can get to the level he was that would be a great achievement.”
The teenager will be 20-years-old by the time the next Olympic Games come round at LA 2028, and though it is still early days in Gout’s career, he will surely have his eyes focused on the States.
Even better, the following Olympiad takes place in his home state of Queensland, Brisbane 2032, by which time he will have plenty more experience under his belt.
The future is certainly bright for Gout Gout, a name you will no doubt hear again.
Yeah but he is never going to break the wR
“The next Usain Bolt” yeah, we heard that before
bro copy pasted an article
@@EntertainingRunner-vd3bn Yeah, so what, I am 84 years old I don't type quickly!
@@PalkaTV his 16-year-old age devision gout recorded a faster time than Bolt did at the same age.. let's wait and see.
I think in 2025 and maybe 2026 lyles has the better shot, but in years beyond it’s definitely tebogo. Lyles has probably 2-3 more years of top running while tebego has like 8-9 more years, so unless lyles runs sub 19 in the next 2 years, im gonna call tebogo having the WR and maybe sub 19 by the time hes done
Delulu talk
Lyles: 19.31=10.07+9.24 19.47=10.16+9.31 19.46=10.21+9.25 19.67=10.43+9.24 19.53=10.18+9.35
Tebogo: 19.46=10.12+9.34 19.55=10.27+9.28 19.50=10.21+9.29
whered you get those splits from?
Ye lyles splits are off for his 19.31
@@NarutoJK-jh7tr How you mean
@@joshuasanimationsLooks like PJ Vazel's split analysis
Letsile’s 19.55 was 10.30 + 9.25 according to diamond league
Thanks for your contributions.
If Noah put’s the same focus and effort, that allowed him to win 100m Olympic Gold Medal, into the 200m he will break his 2022 200m American Record (AR) very soon and has the best chance to break the 200m WR first. Based on these factors:
1. Top end speed (27+ MPH)
2. Speed endurance (70m of 100m @ 26+ MPH)
3. Consistency (40 200m timings under 20s [200m King] 6 more than Bolt)
Noah’s 1st half of his AR 200m was 10.15s (slower than Bolt by 0.23) and final 100m was 9.16s (faster than Bolt by 0.11). Note: Noah’s SB 100m was 9.95s (0.2 difference of 200m 1st half).
Bolt’s 9.58s 100m 2009 WR & 19.19s 200m WR (9.92s 1st half & 9.27s 2nd half) 4 days later (0.34 difference of 200m 1st half).
Fast forward to 9.79 Noah and add 0.2 to his SB 100m then 1st half of 200m time would be 9.99. If we add 9.99 & 9.16 we get 19.15 (even if we add 9.99+9.19=19.18) NEW 200m WRs! Note: 9.99+9.2=19.19 and equals WR.
While Noah has the best chance to be first to set new 200m record it will not last long because Tebogo’s has the next best chance!
The competition will be interesting if they come fit. I think Noah will have the edge too.
Tebogo's 43.04 leg tells me he will be the one to break the record, if anyone is to break it
13 minutes that could have been 4 minutes. Clearly it's Tebogo right now, Knighton after him and later on Gout Gout that has the most realistic chance.
Tebogo is the only candidate with a real chance, especially age-based consideration. Lyles' capitulation at the Olympics was more than "Covid". It was mental. He wouldn't have run if he couldn't believe he could actually do it...and then failed.
Tebogo will never break it because he can't stop himself from taunting at the tape. But, hey, it looks so cool.
All i Will say is progress in track is not always linear. People seem to have gout gout nailed on as the heir apparent for the world record but I would be careful about this. We’ve seen way too many young kids hyped up for running really quick times in their youth, only to never coke close to those times again. Just let people develop at their own pace. Being fast as a junior doesn’t guarantee success as a senior
as if currently noah or lestsile. my wild card will probably be erryion knighton. but kung fu kenny is also to be watched
I really wish Lyles was healthy at this past Olympics. I think he was ready to break the record
Gout Gout has the most potential to break Usain Bolt’s 200-meter record, though he’s not ready yet. His raw talent is unmatched, and with a few more years of development, he could get there. I once thought Erriyon Knighton was the one to do it, but after last year’s slump, he hasn’t kept pace. By now, he should be on par with Tebogo, but he’s fallen behind.
WAY too early to be calling these predictions for Gout. Let's let him break 20 seconds first.
None of them can do it at their current level. Tebogo looks like the most likely to not have reached his peak yet. If he continues to improve he might be able to do it, but most likely he’s getting very close to his peak already.
The man with 2 first names in 4 years will be in his prime. 4 years to work on his start. 4 years to get stronger in the legs and chest. 4 years to perfect his run. Gout gout will be Australia's not only first medal winner, but the gold medalist and world record holder. This man is insane
My heart wants it to be Knighton.
Great 4 ! It is going to be fun to watch.
When comparing sub 20 clockings between athletes, you have to use a percentage not the absolute number because some have ran more races than others
As always! You're professional, we like your videos keep going 🇲🇦💫
The title is clickbait. That's not professional.
Tobogo hands down. Also, hands down is this channel as the best track and field commentary ever.
My mom will.
Heard your m9m goes to college 😂
Muscle man over here
Yes she is very very fast!
There's multiple people currently running, who could beat it on their perfect day. Lyles, Tebogo ofc seem like the likeliest in next few years, but there's few others who have already doing 19.50ish times so can't really count them out either.
Tebogo is the future of sprinting, facing real challenges only from Kishane in 100m and Noah Lyles in 200m
If Kishane stays healthy, he’ll own the 100 in ‘25 and ‘26 … I doubt he’ll be able to put down a Bolt-beating time, but I do think he’ll relegate Lyles to second-or-worse starting next year. Lyles best 100’s are behind him.
If Tebogo continues his trend of improvement, becomes stronger (which is highly probable), stays physically and mentally healthy and stays hungry for the record, maybe not in 2 but 4 years he should be pretty close to breaking or will break the record. Does noah have potential for growth? Yes, but comprehensively, tebogo has the edge where potential is concerned. I am notaiming to disregard the other athletes but tebogo has been gaining on and arguably has or is about to surpass lyles. Either way i hope from the four that they push each other to do the best they can for the sport.
Before the end of 2025, Tebogo will likely run the first sub 43 second 400m in history
I think Erriyon still has plenty of potential
I agree with you I just think this year was messy for him with the things he was dealing with
You could see he's early season races that he was ready I feel he could've gone 19.6x for he's season best
If data shows 21-23 then Michael Johnson was simply an outlier
Great presentation as usual. Nice charts and graphs.
Now, even with the juiced up track, and the juiced up shoes, none of those 4 can break the 100m or 200m. In this last olympic, the winning times for the 100m and the 200m, were slower than the times in which Bolt ran the SEMI-FINAL of most of his races.
LETSILE TEBOGO! 🇧🇼 just a matter of time, but you’ll have Botswana forever on the charts when the time comes
Gout Gout
Tobogo and Knighton, can still improve, they have the advantage. Knighton has more development to come on his body, if he wants it bad enough. Tobogo is a freak and I believe he will get closest to the GOAT's world record, but breaking it, 🧐
The only way I see it happening is in a finals and the top 3-4 finish under 19.50
King Kenny will continue to run consistently but I don't think he will get further than 19.3-19.4 and even then 19.3 is a stretch. I don't think it will be him.
Erriyon is a bit of a wild card. He's the youngest and has already run a 19.49 but he hasn't got close to that since, running consistent 19.8s. He could well have it in him to slowly progress down to consistently hitting around 19.5 and have an absolute belter where he gets really close, but I think he's focused on learning how to become a serial winner rather than break records. I hope he does run that belter, it will be amazing to watch.
Lyles is currently in his prime and is a serial winner, Olympic 200m finals be damned. He's gotten the closest so far and has done a lot of work on his biggest shortcoming but his PB dates back to 2022 now and his actions seem to suggest a shift of focus to winning medals rather than breaking records, talk and writing on shoes is cheap. That loss to Tebogo could be the push he needs to really attack the 200m hard again and push his times back down. I hope he still has the years to properly attack it.
Tebogo is the one with the best chance within the next 5 years I think. Age is on his side and he seems to be able to run medal contention times in whatever sprint event he wants at a moments notice. The man we saw win the Olympic final was a different beast to the one we've seen ease up during 9.9s in the 100m. I hope he keeps that fire in his belly and aims for the edge of the universe. If anyone can reach it, it's him.
This video is a Promotion for King Noah Lyles in the 200m in Tokyo 2025 World Championships.
This video either ages like fine wine or gonna be a joke
Tebogo certainly will, I honestly expect him to dominate the 2025 season and break the 200m World Record, even the 400m is at risk.
A good winter can do so much at his age, Lyles also can improve. But Lyles can lose to Tebogo and Tebogo only against himself next season.
In 2017 I did some research trying to figure out the "prime" age for physical performance. Obviously it can be very subjective, but I checked all the world records in athletics, swimming and Olympic weightlifting, calculating the age of the athletes at the time of setting the world record. The median age was 24 years and 242 days.
No way! Joseph Fahnbulleh was born on 9/11??
I doubt any of them will break Bolts record
Noah will run 19.12 to win the 2025 tokyo world championships btw.
@@jaredbowen3527 not happening
Gout gout will
The real problem with breaking Bolt's record is not talent, it is the absence of the record breaker in the races. When Bolt broke his first record in the 100m, he was running against Asafa Powell, someone who held the record, meaning someone who could run at world record time. So to beat such a person, you have to break the record. The benefit after breaking the record is that you only have yourself to run against. When Bolt set 19.19 in 200m, he was the record holder, that way he was the one to beat, he had ability to run at world record time, so to break it, he just had to train better than before. If you are the record holder and you train harder, you become better and faster than the record holder, which means you keep breaking the records, moreover you know exactly how the record was broken, so you know what to improve. This is why we see Sydney McLaughlin breaking her own record over and over.
The current crop of people do not have anyone who can run at the current world record on a normal day, so no matter how competitive they become, simply inching closer to the record beats everyone. Lyles probably does not have anymore 19.3x left in him, so he cant push Tebogo towards the 19.20s. The only true hope is if Knighton recovers and is able to run at least 19.25 in the same field as someone like Tebogo. In short, Tebogo can break the record, but we need someone who can run very close to the record itself. Competition is the problem, not speed, notice how Lyles and the Jamaican guy been hiding. Maybe not hiding, but their absence lowered the level of competition. Bolt's record will be broken the moment any two people can compete at < 19:30.
No one is going to break that 200 m world record (19:19). STOP!!!!
I will 😉
I mean, someone is probably going to break 19.19 one day. Maybe not from this generation or the next, but it's going to happen.
When I was growing up, Johnson's 19.32 was seen as unreachable. I don't think anyone had even hit 19.60 before Bolt broke the record. Everything's impossible until it's done.
Keep your eyes on Gout Goutt in years to come!
We all know Andre De Grasse is coming back for one more big race and running 19.08
Australia’s Gout Gout is going to be a force in years to come! He has already beaten bolt’s youth record in the 200m
Goat goat 🐐 19:05 Before his 20th or 19 Birthday And 100 m 9.4
Anyone you think could break the world record in any event has a finite probability of being in a car accident tomorrow and being paralyzed. Yes, probability and statistics can calculate the probability of that happening, but the thing about statistics is that it can not tell you when it will happwn within a given average petiodicity. Stastics can tell you that a specific outcome will occur a certain number of times in a give time span, or for a given number of opportunities. But, that number is an average over many time spans or sets of opportunities. You can have 3 100 year rainfalls in a decade, but over a 100,000 years, the "average" time of occurence will be once in every 100 years. Statistics implies nothing about timing, except on an average basis. In relibility engineering, we had a saying: buses always run in twos or threes. They leave the terminal every 20 minutes, but randomly catch up with the bus in front because the passenger load is sporadic.
IMO, that record will remain the same for many, many years, and that shows how freaking unique Bolt is.
I'd love to see Mennea on today's tracks, shoes, with supplements, good nutrition, better technology for training...
It'll be Tebogo. He's 7 years younger than Lyles, and he's gonna be on a whole nother level of 200 speed moving into 2025, assuming no major injuries or sicknesses. Lyles better be prepared to get smoked, or it'll break him mid-season moving into the Olympics
Letsile Tebogo is the clear favorite. He has very efficient running style, looks more like Bolt, he is younger, and had a better season than everybody else. What he did at Olympics is unprecedented. You’re giving edge to Noah because he is from USA and he is loud and talking about it. I think it more depends on which way Tebogo will go. If he decides to go for 400m WR he will has less chance to get 200m WR.. I hope both of these two athletes break it, it would be awesome :D....
Remember that Lyles ran a 19.31 whilst only ever going below 9.8 once in his career,Bolt ran a 19.19 as a 9.58 100m runner,my point is that a runner of bolts quality if he had a different approach to the 200m he might have even ran below 19.10, possibly even sub 19,I definitely think that an athlete with enough speed endurance that can run mid 9.7's here and there can definitely break Bolts record
I think Tebogo has the best chance especially if he increases his 400m strength and speed endurance. Tebogo runs so effortlessly fast. I think the 200m world record will end up around 19.10 seconds
Andre De Grasse of course!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bye
My mum ran in the Commonwealth Games at this track!!!
Tebogo has never stagnated like Lyles!! Possibly Tebogo can go below 19.4 in 2025.. After that there is an opportunity to attack WR in 2026. Then Lyles is over. I think with improved strength and start that Gout Gout will be the one with the greatest potential to break Bolt's record within 5 years.
I don't know anything for sure but I do know noah lyles is a great athlete and even though he might be 28 at the world champs 2025 he is healthy training hard and has a great chance
😏 must be a new med out there 😂
Tebogo ran the 9.34 while beating his chest in the last 20m and slowing down
He also ran a 9.26 last year at the London Diamond League
The time Tebogo runs his 30th 200m race under 20 seconds, the world record will be gone as he had it obliterated
Fine, I’ll beat it myself.
You got this, bro.👍🥇
Imagine bro actually beats it in a few years
@@northedupkicks7110 I already am a national champion
And then you woke up😂😂
What nation? Bhutan?😂
Wait...2009 was 15 years ago??!!! maaaan
Not until someone of Bolt’s physical build or slightly bigger comes along will the record be broken. It’s the second 100 meter stride that will break it because that’s where Bolt set it.
11:12 Whilst some sources say Lyles closed his final 100m of his 19.31 in 9.16, other (often more credible) sources say he split around 9.24 for his final 100 (and went out in 10.07). I myself got this time when looking at his race however I get I can’t do it as accurately as the professional ‘split measure-ers’. 11:37 Whilst Tebogo may have closed in 9.34 in his 19.46 in the Olympics (easing at the line), he closed in 9.25 in his 19.55 run in Zurich, post-Olympics. He also ran that time after many races beforehand after Paris and on a wet track. Given ideal conditions Tebogo can probably close in 9.20 or under.
Lyles also hasn’t shown any signs of improving on his 19.31, before or since 2022. Since he put on half a kilogram of muscle between 2022 and 2023 (from what I remember, correct me if I’m wrong) his 100 times have improved slightly however his 200 times have slowed slightly. His 19.31 was when he was at his absolute best, with a hunger to win (revenge from Tokyo), a home crowd championship and good competition (19.49 Knighton and 19.7/8 Bednarek). Lyles hasn’t shown that he can run sub-19.50 whilst doubling - he failed at 2023 World Championships, 2024 Trials and 2024 Olympics (albeit with Covid). He in fact hasn’t run sub 19.50 since 2023 and that would’ve been a high 19.5 if there hadn’t been a strong tailwind (+1.6m/s tailwind in his 19.47 at the London Diamond League; I would know because I was there in person).
Tebogo on the other hand, as well as being young, is still showing good progression, despite what it looks like. His 19.50 in 2023 was the same race as Lyles’ 19.47 and had the same +1.6m/s tailwind. It was fairly windy that day, I remember. If you convert his 19.50 (+1.6m/s) to 0.0m/s wind he would’ve run 19.62. In his 19.46 run (+0.4m/s) he would’ve run 19.49 with no wind - whilst beating his chest. So he’s improved his 200m time by over a tenth of a second from last year if you use rough estimates of converting winds. If Tebogo can improve his first 100 on the bend - not his start (unlike Lyles, since Tebogo has a very good start) - from 10.12 to 10.05; totally attainable, then go from closing in 9.25 on a wet track and whilst fatigued, to 9.20 on a dry track and in good conditions then there could be the potential for a 10.05 + 9.20 for him. I get it’s extremely difficult to put the perfect race together - something Tebogo’s not done yet - but I definitely see the potential for him to do so in the not too distant future.
I don't think your analysis of Noah is accurate Noah Lyles has clearly improved between 2023 and 2024, and any claim to the contrary overlooks crucial details. In 2024, despite having a slower reaction time of 0.17 seconds compared to 0.14 seconds in 2023, he managed to run faster, finishing in 9.79 seconds versus 9.83 seconds in Budapest. This means that Lyles lost around 0.03 seconds at the start but compensated during the race itself, demonstrating that his performance on the track has improved. His mid-race splits, particularly between 50m and 70m, were faster in 2024, with 0.83 seconds for the 50-60m segment and 0.82 seconds for 60-70m, compared to 0.83 seconds for both segments in 2023. These gains highlight his ability to maximize his top-end speed better than before.
While the +1.0 m/s tailwind in 2024 could suggest favorable conditions, it does not fully account for his faster time, as his slower reaction time countered much of the wind’s potential benefit. Furthermore, Lyles’ ability to maintain his speed in the final 40 meters confirms his exceptional endurance and race execution, which are consistent with his progression as an athlete. In fact, had his reaction time in 2024 matched that of 2023, he likely would have run closer to 9.76 seconds or better. This evidence demonstrates that Noah has not stagnated but continues to improve in key aspects of his performance, including speed and endurance,
@athleticsEditz
@@samuelzobo4961 Ok, well if you’re using his reaction time as an excuse as to why he didn’t go faster then that’s just fan-girling. Obviously you could make the claim that if he’d had the same RT as in 2023 then he would’ve run 9.76, but at the end of the day the reaction time’s part of the race, as much as the top speed and the dip and the first few steps. You might as well say that Blake’s faster than Bolt over 200m ‘bEcAUSe His REacTiOn tImE wAs sO SlOw’ but it’s obviously Blake’s fault that he didn’t react in the way he did. As for your splits, 10m splits often aren’t very accurate anyway; the splits say Simbine split 0.81 from 60-70m - this would tie the fastest legal 10m split ever (along with Bolt). Do you really think Simbine split 0.81 from 60-70m when the rest of his splits were supposedly 0.84,0.85 and 0.86 (from around 60m onwards)? Again, Lyles ‘faster 10m splits’ not only could be incorrect, but also are only faster because he had more wind in 2024. If you really wanted, you could say that if Lyles (and Kishane) had had the same reaction time as Kerley in the final, they both would’ve run 9.72. But they didn’t. That 0.03 that he made up (and the extra 0.04 - going from 9.83 - 9.79) came from the better wind in Paris. MAYBE you could say he has improved a bit in 2024 as opposed to 2023, since in the London Diamond League he ran 9.81 with a -0.4m/s headwind (if I remember correctly). That equates to a 9.79-ish if the wind’s 0.0m/s.
But this isn’t really talking about Lyles’ 100m abilities; he has shown some improvements pretty much every year over 100m when he’s actually focused on it to an extent, but this is about the 200m. The fact that he’s put on a visible amount of muscle since 2022 literally emphasises my point that he’s gotten slower over 200m. He’s not as light as he needs to be to break the world record, or even to break 19.40, let alone the American Record. The main point of my comment was to point out that Lyles is almost certainly not going to break the 200m world record ever, as much as I’d love for him to.
At the end of the day, Lyles will want to retain his title of ‘world’s fastest man’ and therefore won’t ever only focus on the 200m again (like he did in 2022), which could result in him not only losing his 200m World Championship crown, but also his 100 crown.
Given the typical age factor, Lyles and Bednarek don't have much left in them. Let's see how it plays out for them. I'm not sure what to make out for Knighton. He'll need some kind of breakthrough. I'd rather see the record remain intact.
I think of Noah focuses on the 200 only for the next 2-3 years he could definitely get the record and I think he has the best chance to get it
Noah will break it, then Tebogo will break Noah's record.
Pietro's record held really long. Pretty cool.
longest standing 200m record ever
Set at high altitude in Mexico City but a world record is a world record.
it's me
I just said that to myself when I saw the notification. Im sorry to be the bearer of bad news but I’ll be the one to beat the current record not you.
@@metrik1b.257nah......
It's gonna be me.
Ya'll coudn't make it past 100m... it's me. Not sorry to end your hopes.
nah it's my goofy self
That strange upright running style must work for the 200 and 400. So If you’re going to say Tebogo that would make sense I remember how much they picked at MJ’s running style and Tebogo definitely doesn’t look like a world class sprinter but his time begs to differ! 💪
Lyles still has time. Justin Gatlin changed the game on old age and short sprints. 💪 miss that dude on the track but he’s on social media and people had him wrong the whole time. He’s not who they had him made out to be
It’s me. I’ll break the record . Remember the initials W.A
Good luck bro
@ thx 🙏🏽 I’ll give you a random shoutout if it actually happens lol
Gout Gout?
These r all great athletes but the exciting thing is there always be some young unknown who comes and shocks the world
Fred kerley breaks the record the next time he steps on the track🤝🏽
its essentially down to knighton upping his game more, tebogo keeping up with his improvement, lyles clutching the 200m wrbefore anyone else has a chance or maybe kenny. If its not those 4 its unlikely that anybody currently competing at the top will break it.
If Lyles runs a pb in the 2025 season; showing he can combine his 100 speed and has returned to his 200 best strength, then I can see him getting close in 2026. If he hasn’t broken it by 2026, then I’m looking at Tebogo. But I have no idea what Tebogo is going to focus on, so that record may not fall if he doesn’t go for it
Gout Gout is 16 years old. In 2032 he will be 23 and running in his home state of Queensland. If he progresses at anything like his current rate between now and then, he will be nearly unbeatable. 👍👍👍👍
We’d go with Gout Gout from Australia.
trp fortune telling...? 👀
My predictions tend to be optimistic, but Tebogo is the only one I can see potentially beating Bolt's record. Any predictions are difficult, but with athletes as young as Tebogo and Knighton, trying to guess almost an entire career before them is obviously impossible. Look at how many athletes break NCAA records and look to have amazing potential, but their pro careers never amount to much. Tebogo does at least have consistency and progression on his side, as well as still being really young.
If Lyles sticks to his current goals of being the face of athletics, i.e. wanting to win 100m and 200m at global championships, I can see him lowering his 100m PB to maybe 9.75, but I doubt he will beat his 19.31, although he may be able to go sub 19.4 again.
Kenny B is an amazing athlete, who continues to improve over time, but his age and rate of progression don't put him on a good enough trigectory to challenge the record. I can still see him running low 19.4's and potentially getting a global gold in the 200m if things go his way.
Knighton running a 19.49 at 18 and still being only 20 suggests amazing potential, but after his controversy this year and a couple of seasons of not running close to 19.49, it's difficult to be over confident about what his future holds. Obviously the potential is there, but whether or not he will fulfill that potential is very much up for debate. I could easily imagine him becoming the dominant 200m runner in the future running 19.2's and possibly challening the record, but I can equally see him never beating his 19.49.
Tebogo has the most potential across all sprint distances and seems to have the most natural ability, but seems to be less focused. I would say a 400m WR is more likely for him than the shorter sprints, but I wouldn't rule anything out. At the moment his 100m is his least competitive event, but if he goes the Noah route and focuses more on his starts and drive phase, I can see that lowering his 100m and 200m PB's by over 0.1, but that still puts him a long way short of Bolt's record. That said, he's only 21, still progressing and he may not peak until his late 20's, so even Bolt's 100m record could be a potential target, but at the moment I would say low 19.3's or high 19.2's are likely to be the best he will achieve in the 200m.