I love Jon's final sentiment. If one isn't constantly proving the metrics one is considering, then one is not actively managing. Always a good time listening to your considerations!! Thanks you guys Brent, I'll see you in the VIP section of RCL 🤙
Am I the only one who is thinking about what would happen to Nvidia's price if China decided it was time to take back Taiwan? I'm buying some really cheap puts on NVDA 6 months out and will continue to roll them over. I'm looking at a possible 1000x payoff on something that may have a 15 % chance of happening this year. I think those are some pretty good speculating odds.
I've thought about it, too. When Berkshire sold their position in Taiwan semiconductor, you have to take notice. I own some AI stocks in the U.S. and Europe, and I don't feel fomo about NVDA. I even own a few shares of miserable INTC, just in case the Chicoms make a move before the U.S. election. The window for a takeover of Taiwan is closing, though.
This has quickly become my favorite finance related podcast . I love Brent’s perspective and also the way he presents information. Both guys also seem very humble and Brent is always there to remind us all that being profitable is more important than being correct . Him not being overly ideological in his approach seems to help him to be properly positioned for any possible scenario . Thank you both for putting this together .
What about all that capital waiting to get deployed? Are they waiting for that drawdown ? Wouldn’t that mean the downturn wouldn’t last long? Where else would the money go anyways?
Mulching my garden to macro with the best. Preserving my soil microbe army, worms and precious water, learning to build and preserve wealth. Some day ill take all this gathered knowledge and put it in paper markets. For now, just kicking back, listening, absorbing. Keep dropping these truth bombs, I love em. You boys are my only go to, once a week! Thanks Jon, thanks Brent.
Awesome. Which region are you in. I keep efforts every day doing the same but in San Antonio TX the heat is killing my microbes and the lack of rain too is the problem
GameStop sold 45M shares for $1B. They now have $2B and no debt. The Bullet Swaps the shorts have had for 3 years won’t be renewed and things are looking bullish. Maybe GME can take over for NVIDIA. 😊
I have to disagree with Jon's statement that he doesn't see tech companies pulling in stupid money, just NVIDIA pulling in all the money. There are a lot of me-too stories being told by other companies that claim that they are alternatives which will be competing with NVIDIA, and apparently they have convinced many people who are afraid of NVIDIA's multiples and don't understand that NVIDIA not only has the fastest hardware, but also the best software (CUDA) for coordinating large numbers of processors working on a single task. These companies will probably get weeded out due to failure to live up to the hype they are generating, while NVIDIA will probably suffer from a different fate when they have saturated the market while their valuation is still in the stratosphere...
I agree with Brent, the dollar is gonna be the great relative winner in financial market, but the payers for that play gonna be the US citizen. Undeniable the worsening environment on the working class in the US and the dolllar streghthening.
Can AI make gold, silver, copper, and so forth which these devices that will be so predominant, need? The answer, of course, is no. So how can this inform us?
First, a very informative episode as usual. Second, regarding how index investing has affected the stock market, I fear and am fascinated by how AI investing is going to affect it. Assuming that the AI systems all come to similar conclusions on the best way to invest, are we going to get radical swings in prices as they all decide to buy or sell the same thing at the same time? Will markets even be able to function? Considering how rapidly AI technology is advancing we may see the consequences within months.
The progress that's happened in AI over the last two and a half years is nothing special. It's more or less equivalent to the progress that's happened in AI in any given two and a half year period in recent decades. There's no reason for everyone to suddenly be this excited about it. It's pretty convenient that the most productivity-increasing, deflationary thing on the planet - second only to nuclear fusion - just so happened to become everyone's obsession right when the highest inflation in history started to affect everyone's pocketbooks. People are just desperate for a panacea. They know that high or hyperinflation is pretty much baked into the cake at this point... That there's nothing the governments nor the central banks can do about it... So they're hoping AI will fix it. It's a hail mary pass and it's futile. It's gonna take another twenty or thirty years for what everybody's saying is just around the corner to become real.
Since 2015 I guessed that the S&P, et al would never go down again based on the shenanigans that happened in the GFC. Short term Pull backs we'll have but a 1929/2001/2008 crash...nope. The powers that move the markets will rotate different companies in and out of the S&P/Nasdaq/Dow to keep the market rising, 401k's stable. Great show guys. Love the work you do.
Do you mean address when we will stop using Modern Monetary Theory, i.e. printing fiat currency. We issue our own currency which is MMT, the macroeconomic model of our Nation.
@@CharleneSmith-we9vh well yes they can go much further. Stop borrowing, print money and retire the bonds, completely start to monetize much more than they are going now. They can create UBI or job grantee, universal health care, print to save social security…
The US already does MMT. MMT is descriptive of how the system actually workds. What a lot of people don't like is when they then use this as prescriptive for extreme monetary policy
The attention mechanism used by most large language models results in a quadratic relationship between the quantity of information input and the compute power needed (great for NVDA). There are a lot of smart people working to reduce that constraint. No way I would jump on the NVDA bandwagon.
What happens if (Active smarter than you and me Blackrock managers) start selling off their passive positions. Nobody is paying attention when the fox comes in the chicken house and closes the door. Cascade effect!
lets be honest. i should have since 1987 bought the broad market, never picking one stock. if i would have dollar cost averaged every dollar i had i would have millions today. i was stupid. if you are young $spy is the best investment. I pre date the spy etf, but still could have found a broad based mutual fund. don't be me later in life shopping the discounted meat section.
or you could have bought a basket of "obvious" great companies McDonald's PepsiCo Starbucks Johnson&Johnson Phillip Morris Altria Microsoft Apple Domino's YumBrands CocaCola😢Costco etc etc etc
Feels stable right now! Wow, far from it IMO. I would argue we are in one of the most unstable economic/fiscal/monetary Environments of all time. Would not be long these markets with my worst enemies money.
Smart money prefers liquidity before quality of a stock. There are a handful of main players in the AI space spread over hardware, software, design and manufacturing. Each one is equally important. Yet, only NVDA goes thru the roof. MSFT owns ChatGPT. TSMC made for NDVA. Their gain is modest. It is such a gambling I sold all my tech. My portfolio has gained 50-80%, one 278% with oil/gas, gold, uranium, commodities, healthcare, pipelines, etc.
This is actually not true. Apple is at $2.91 trillion market cap, but that doesn't mean that the company could be liquidated for anything more than a tiny fraction of that value. The 2.91T is absolutely, 100% NOT real... It comes from an abstraction. It comes from asking the question "What was the last price that someone bought a share of aapl for ($190), multiplied by the outstanding shares (15.3B)". The only "real" parts of the company are the ~$400B annual revenue and ~$100B annual net income. All it would take to drop apple's value by 50% is for people to no longer be willing to buy the shares at anything more than $95 per share.
@@deseosuho Fair point, however there are structural constraints to this extreme a liquidation event being a highly unlikley scenario, albeit non zero so your point is recieved.
America has shed so much innocent blood that it is obliged to set up a day to swim in it, look at what your weapons are being used for in gaza while you swim
so many are just jealous they missed Nvidia, and thought it was a bubble. ITS NOT. Its the real deal, and NO the market is not going to crash. I was around for 2008, were any of you?
I was and we are in far worse shape on any metric you can pick! Tell me where things are better than 2008?? I’ll wait. NVDA CANT CARRY TJE ENTIRE MARKET! Ridiculous
I bought CSCO, INTC and some internet stocks in 1998 thinking I would retire in a few years. That did not happen obviously. I have some NVDA stocks. Should had bought more. It is bubble. 2-3 years of demand was being pulled forward. NVDA and other semiconductor stocks are always cyclical Once the bubble burst, expect 60-70% drop. This happens every single time. The last time it happened was 2022. Where were you in 2022 when NVDA dropped significantly?
I still find these guys fall short of their understanding of the economy. You can’t hide from thermodynamics. GDP is directly related to energy we are running out AI uses a LOT! Of energy!!jevons paradox
I love Jon's final sentiment. If one isn't constantly proving the metrics one is considering, then one is not actively managing.
Always a good time listening to your considerations!!
Thanks you guys
Brent, I'll see you in the VIP section of RCL 🤙
Am I the only one who is thinking about what would happen to Nvidia's price if China decided it was time to take back Taiwan? I'm buying some really cheap puts on NVDA 6 months out and will continue to roll them over. I'm looking at a possible 1000x payoff on something that may have a 15 % chance of happening this year. I think those are some pretty good speculating odds.
I've thought about it, too. When Berkshire sold their position in Taiwan semiconductor, you have to take notice. I own some AI stocks in the U.S. and Europe, and I don't feel fomo about NVDA. I even own a few shares of miserable INTC, just in case the Chicoms make a move before the U.S. election. The window for a takeover of Taiwan is closing, though.
It's not a 15% chance. China isn't going to make that move any time soon.
@@nickc3856I remember when people were saying the same thing about Russia taking Ukraine before it happened. Here we are.
Love it. It’s when not of that China takes Taiwan
@@hood6854very different. Russia’s military wasn’t getting stronger and couldn’t wait for Ukraine to join NATO. It’s in China’s interest to wait.
This has quickly become my favorite finance related podcast . I love Brent’s perspective and also the way he presents information. Both guys also seem very humble and Brent is always there to remind us all that being profitable is more important than being correct . Him not being overly ideological in his approach seems to help him to be properly positioned for any possible scenario . Thank you both for putting this together .
What about all that capital waiting to get deployed? Are they waiting for that drawdown ? Wouldn’t that mean the downturn wouldn’t last long? Where else would the money go anyways?
Mulching my garden to macro with the best. Preserving my soil microbe army, worms and precious water, learning to build and preserve wealth. Some day ill take all this gathered knowledge and put it in paper markets. For now, just kicking back, listening, absorbing. Keep dropping these truth bombs, I love em. You boys are my only go to, once a week!
Thanks Jon, thanks Brent.
Awesome. Which region are you in. I keep efforts every day doing the same but in San Antonio TX the heat is killing my microbes and the lack of rain too is the problem
sat in Crete listening to the show. just done the louis, ronnie, brent conversation, now onto this one as the children play. 😀👍
GameStop sold 45M shares for $1B. They now have $2B and no debt. The Bullet Swaps the shorts have had for 3 years won’t be renewed and things are looking bullish. Maybe GME can take over for NVIDIA. 😊
I have to disagree with Jon's statement that he doesn't see tech companies pulling in stupid money, just NVIDIA pulling in all the money. There are a lot of me-too stories being told by other companies that claim that they are alternatives which will be competing with NVIDIA, and apparently they have convinced many people who are afraid of NVIDIA's multiples and don't understand that NVIDIA not only has the fastest hardware, but also the best software (CUDA) for coordinating large numbers of processors working on a single task. These companies will probably get weeded out due to failure to live up to the hype they are generating, while NVIDIA will probably suffer from a different fate when they have saturated the market while their valuation is still in the stratosphere...
“A tech milkshake”. Indeed. Alternatively, you could call it “the NVDA GPU milkshake.”
Love the show. Love the sentiment. Have a great holiday boys.
You too, Jimmy 🍻
I agree with Brent, the dollar is gonna be the great relative winner in financial market, but the payers for that play gonna be the US citizen. Undeniable the worsening environment on the working class in the US and the dolllar streghthening.
Why is it bad for the working class..
Can AI make gold, silver, copper, and so forth which these devices that will be so predominant, need? The answer, of course, is no. So how can this inform us?
First, a very informative episode as usual. Second, regarding how index investing has affected the stock market, I fear and am fascinated by how AI investing is going to affect it. Assuming that the AI systems all come to similar conclusions on the best way to invest, are we going to get radical swings in prices as they all decide to buy or sell the same thing at the same time? Will markets even be able to function? Considering how rapidly AI technology is advancing we may see the consequences within months.
The progress that's happened in AI over the last two and a half years is nothing special. It's more or less equivalent to the progress that's happened in AI in any given two and a half year period in recent decades.
There's no reason for everyone to suddenly be this excited about it. It's pretty convenient that the most productivity-increasing, deflationary thing on the planet - second only to nuclear fusion - just so happened to become everyone's obsession right when the highest inflation in history started to affect everyone's pocketbooks.
People are just desperate for a panacea. They know that high or hyperinflation is pretty much baked into the cake at this point... That there's nothing the governments nor the central banks can do about it... So they're hoping AI will fix it. It's a hail mary pass and it's futile.
It's gonna take another twenty or thirty years for what everybody's saying is just around the corner to become real.
Same
Since 2015 I guessed that the S&P, et al would never go down again based on the shenanigans that happened in the GFC. Short term Pull backs we'll have but a 1929/2001/2008 crash...nope. The powers that move the markets will rotate different companies in and out of the S&P/Nasdaq/Dow to keep the market rising, 401k's stable.
Great show guys. Love the work you do.
Never say never! Im taking the other side. Even the FED and Treasury won’t be able to prop up these markets when they crash
I just wish I bought bitcoin in 2010
Can Brent please address what will happen if the US adopts MMT?
Do you mean address when we will stop using Modern Monetary Theory, i.e. printing fiat currency. We issue our own currency which is MMT, the macroeconomic model of our Nation.
@@CharleneSmith-we9vh well yes they can go much further. Stop borrowing, print money and retire the bonds, completely start to monetize much more than they are going now. They can create UBI or job grantee, universal health care, print to save social security…
The US already does MMT. MMT is descriptive of how the system actually workds. What a lot of people don't like is when they then use this as prescriptive for extreme monetary policy
I’ve been using the Demark indicator for nearly a decade. This is the first time I’ve ever heard someone publicly talk about it.
Thanks to your cautious optimism wrt precious metals, I was able to sell at a relative high a couple weeks ago, to manage a cash need. Thanks!
17:39
The attention mechanism used by most large language models results in a quadratic relationship between the quantity of information input and the compute power needed (great for NVDA). There are a lot of smart people working to reduce that constraint. No way I would jump on the NVDA bandwagon.
I completely missed NVDA never owned a share or option. and still i am depressed cause i feel i lost money not buying early.
When you skate on thin ice you may as well tap dance.
Good show. Brent Do you manage smaller accounts say 100K?
unfortunatley i am not able to do so...
What happens if (Active smarter than you and me Blackrock managers) start selling off their passive positions. Nobody is paying attention when the fox comes in the chicken house and closes the door. Cascade effect!
If "Macro" is in the title, I'm guessing the un-named has the initials Of GG? We shall see 😎
Who won the bet between Peter and Brent ;)?
Monday night after this show, silver soaring almost 5%, good night
lets be honest. i should have since 1987 bought the broad market, never picking one stock. if i would have dollar cost averaged every dollar i had i would have millions today. i was stupid. if you are young $spy is the best investment. I pre date the spy etf, but still could have found a broad based mutual fund. don't be me later in life shopping the discounted meat section.
That was when the boomers were getting wealthier and putting their savings to work. What happens when they need cash and or die?
or you could have bought a basket of "obvious" great companies McDonald's PepsiCo Starbucks Johnson&Johnson Phillip Morris Altria Microsoft Apple Domino's YumBrands CocaCola😢Costco etc etc etc
Or buy schd
Bad advice! SP 500 is very expensive. Better of buying at lower valuations like Buffett does
Feels stable right now! Wow, far from it IMO. I would argue we are in one of the most unstable economic/fiscal/monetary Environments of all time. Would not be long these markets with my worst enemies money.
Smart money prefers liquidity before quality of a stock. There are a handful of main players in the AI space spread over hardware, software, design and manufacturing. Each one is equally important. Yet, only NVDA goes thru the roof. MSFT owns ChatGPT. TSMC made for NDVA. Their gain is modest. It is such a gambling I sold all my tech. My portfolio has gained 50-80%, one 278% with oil/gas, gold, uranium, commodities, healthcare, pipelines, etc.
Where's Brent's white bomber jacket and white headphones combo?
maybe i should bring those back...😅
When everyone's digging for gold, sell shovels. NVIDIA is selling shovels.
I actually just sold my physical copper, brass, aluminum and steel. Don’t know if I hit the top but close enough for now👍🏼
Nvidia uses the same business model as Lucent Technologies! D’oh 😂
Asml supposedly has kill switches on their machines in Taiwan. So nothing to worry about right
"And in other news, famed analyst Brent Johnson filed for bankruptcy today after his silver put options went bust..."
If everyone sells they have to buy something else, perhaps making a pit stop in usd on the way to the next thing. Risk/Reward is only transmuted...
This is actually not true. Apple is at $2.91 trillion market cap, but that doesn't mean that the company could be liquidated for anything more than a tiny fraction of that value. The 2.91T is absolutely, 100% NOT real... It comes from an abstraction. It comes from asking the question "What was the last price that someone bought a share of aapl for ($190), multiplied by the outstanding shares (15.3B)". The only "real" parts of the company are the ~$400B annual revenue and ~$100B annual net income. All it would take to drop apple's value by 50% is for people to no longer be willing to buy the shares at anything more than $95 per share.
@@deseosuho Fair point, however there are structural constraints to this extreme a liquidation event being a highly unlikley scenario, albeit non zero so your point is recieved.
Sounds like milkshake vibes 😢is peachy keen. Nothing to worry about
Altas shrugged
I'll tell you what... I got a hard asset! Sorry boys, I couldn't resist. 🤣
That must be what distracted you from leaving your “first” comment.
@@MilkshakesPod damn I didn't realize you could view deleted comments. 😆
America has shed so much innocent blood that it is obliged to set up a day to swim in it, look at what your weapons are being used for in gaza while you swim
Based
so many are just jealous they missed Nvidia, and thought it was a bubble. ITS NOT. Its the real deal, and NO the market is not going to crash. I was around for 2008, were any of you?
I was and we are in far worse shape on any metric you can pick! Tell me where things are better than 2008?? I’ll wait. NVDA CANT CARRY TJE ENTIRE MARKET! Ridiculous
I bought CSCO, INTC and some internet stocks in 1998 thinking I would retire in a few years. That did not happen obviously. I have some NVDA stocks. Should had bought more. It is bubble. 2-3 years of demand was being pulled forward. NVDA and other semiconductor stocks are always cyclical Once the bubble burst, expect 60-70% drop. This happens every single time. The last time it happened was 2022. Where were you in 2022 when NVDA dropped significantly?
Can’t tell if trolling or serious. Has to be trolling, no one can seriously be this disconnected from reality on so many levels.
I still find these guys fall short of their understanding of the economy. You can’t hide from thermodynamics. GDP is directly related to energy we are running out AI uses a LOT! Of energy!!jevons paradox
Who is the largest oil producer and exporter in the world?
First