Dodging Dividend Disaster
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- Опубліковано 20 тра 2024
- Dividends seem like a natural way to invest for retirement income. You choose a portfolio of high income stocks or a high dividend fund and live off the income. In this video, we look at the risk you are taking by doing that and end by looking at what I think is a better approach.
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The biggest problem about the IUKD - ETF is that it specifically tracks the high yield stocks. That means whenever a company in it gains in market value it will be sold due to its lowered dividend yield. However, I think dividend investing in itself is a good road to travel on, if you focus on companies that have a low payout ratio and a track of rising dividends without shouldering too much debt.
Surely nobody would just put all their portfolio in a UK equity high income fund. A better approach would be to set aside some cash for when the markets go down, and be more diversified say use Vanguard ftse all world high dividend yield etf and perhaps a smaller percentage in a higher income UK fund, then combine with a diversified bond fund and maybe part of your portfolio in a more growth oriented fund, like vanguard ftse dev world etf, or vanguard ftse dev world ex UK index fund which could be used to grow your portfolio when it does well
I wouldn’t put the terrible performance of UK stocks down to just dividends, the companies just aren’t as good as some of their US counterparts
But that has nothing to do with stock returns. The only thing that matters is, what discount rate are investors applying to expected earnings ?
"as good" as what? Half the US companies are always in a state of froth. Sooner or later that froths gonna come off.
True if it had been a lump sum . But if someone had cost averaged over a long period of time , probably a more likely scenario. I wonder if the same scenario will have panned out with UKD.
thanks for the content. W Buffett says quite the same, he likes companies that retain the most of the net income. His Berkshire is a good example of that policy. Cheers from Italy
Absolutely fantastic ❤ greediness of UK is costing us no innovation and economical prosperity in the future
As usual, thanks for the great insights Ramin! Just wondering, is Koyfin capable to simulate a scenario where all IUKD dividends would have been reinvested? Interested how that would shape the graphs. Thanks, again
Thank you Ramin!
My pleasure! @joelsarchitectureresearch
Thank you. As usual, a very interesting and informative video. Personally though, I would think it's a good argument for putting your money in well chosen investment trusts if income is your goal. And if you select one of the AIC Dividend Heroes, there's a pretty good chance your dividends will continue to rise each year even if there is a downturn. And total returns on some of them have been very good too e.g. CT Private Equity Trust at almost 300% in 10 years.
Ramin your stuff's always great, but today was especially so for me, because you've just completely changed my mind about investing in high dividend companies. So a big and genuine thank you from me.🙂🙂🙂
Glad to hear it! @mrhanlon8299
Amazing well explained video thanks very much!
Glad it was helpful! @thenoodlebuddy
Interesting video. I reinvest any dividend income by buying shares back in the company.
Great channel, you've earned one subscriber
Awesome, thank you! @MauuuAlpha
I like this vid. Good insight.
Thank you @gerry2345
So to play devils advocate , flip it round the other way, you need cash flow from the day you retire, if you only invest in accumulation funds or growth stocks you have to keep a bigger chunk of capital back to cover you current costs while you wait for that growth. So instead of having to sell investments later you never invest that chunk of money 1st place same same but different . Anyone who retired in 2021 without any allocation to yield bearinginvestments would be feeling pretty depressed by now. Yield bearing investments are a usefull way of counteracting sequencing risk so a form of diversification. Total return matters but not at the expense of diversification.
If you buy a market cap index fund with dividend reinvested you have diversification and guaranteed market return.
Doing anything else is likely to track under the market.
You make some good points and yes there is a risk of dividend cuts, but I expect buying companies with a lower payout ratio sub 65% and dividend cover 1.5 or more is a good strategy.
I do think the UK market and stocks, have a lot of untapped value as well so there is potential for some capital growth if you pick single name stocks. Some of the value plays have done extremely well in the UK.
Such an interesting video! If you wanted income (safe) - would it not be better to go with a corporate bond ETF, investment grade of course! I like dividend trackers that have a growth component, can be risky if you are in retirement though, so would not a good corporate Bond ETF be a better way to go or best of both worlds an aggregate bond?
Also, don't dividends get taxed much higher than capital gains (if outside isa/sipp)?
Dear Ramin, as always, thank you for your excellent work !
Thank you too! @SoNg-dh1me
isn’t the point of dividend investing to reinvest for years and yeards (20+), and then start taking an income from it at maturity? same as an eft? right?
That thumbnail 😂 love it
Thank you! @IncomeBoost42
Hmmm, suggest retirement portfolio be designed to generate more dividends than current cost of living amounts.
EG, if median annual cost of living is 23000 pounds sterling, then design portfolio to do 50000* pounds sterling.
Go ahead and use the 23000 pounds sterling annually, and recycle the difference to buy more portfolio stock(s).
This should more than offset inflation, which the Fed targets ~ 2-3% under normal circumstances, and allow for greater inflation adjusted future distributions.
*50000 is just a guess for illustration purposes, end users will have to iterate their own specific value to match their confort zone(s).
great video and loved the thumbnail 😂
Thanks 😅 @AjayPoriya
Great analysis Ramin. Thank you
My pleasure! @laurenceteague4099
It's appalling analysis
@@annacomnena217 Really? In what way?
Research is key. Look at a company's financial health and dividend history before investing.
Entertaining and informative, Ramin! The vampire graphic 😂 - nice. I would recommend Cornerstone Funds to UK investors (if possible to buy) - they grow and pay 15-17% monthly.
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼RDIV is a top notch choice👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼Your explanation makes a lot of sense. Thanks
Glad you think so! @henryterranauta9100
you will need bond equity dividend combination
You can't equate dividend investing with one obviously flawed fund, IUKD, whose holdings before the financial crisis left it vulnerable to steep dividend cuts.
but i saw many US stocks pay and increase Dividend steadily for decades, share price also growing at the same time.
Too early for Halloween, Ramin. 🎃🎃🎃
Wonder why the UK CB didn't have higher interest rates to prevent the pound's devaluation...?
Must be a garbage fund. SCHD has done very well over that time. Investment has grown as has the dividends. CC funds like JEPI are interesting as their payouts actually increase as stocks go down because of changes in volatility.
SCHD has a very low cost of ownership (TER for IUKD is like 8 times as much). Equally, even dividend US is tilted towards capital appreciation to an extent due to how income and capital gains are taxed. A lot of SCHD members buy back shares in addition to paying out a portion of cash in dividend.
@@beancount811 SPHD and DHS look to be more similar US versions. They prioritize the yield and lose the growth. They still fare better than IUKD. SDIV might be the best match as it has a negative CAGR and just seems to yield chase.
@@janzelm505 SCHD was rebalanced this year. Not sure if they broke it. AI has definitely given SPY a leg up. Equal weight S and P is up only 6. VTV is up about 1. Growth got hammered last year and now its values turn.
TL;DR dividend investing is overrated
Great vid as always, but got really freaked out by Ramin hissing.. Still having flashbacks :O
Understandable @Ouchyism
I'm inclined to think IUKD is a terrible fund due to it not even taking into account payout ratio/dividend cover. I've seen too many people buying into it due to the high dividend yield and nothing else.
I'd love to have seen a direct comparison of outcomes vs. buying a FTSE all-share tracker on the same date. That way a fairer comparison could be drawn rather than just comparing to long term trends or other markets (e.g. USA).
This is not exact but, roughly, late August 2005 to today the Ftse 100 has grown about 43% in index value. Dividends are additional to that. Currently 3.8% PA which you could assume as your income for this example - but obviously varies over the period. Inflation during the period is 68% as per the BOE calculator. So the initial investment has lost out to inflation if all dividends were taken as income. And charges of course ;-)
@Mouxbar not bad then if you keep reinvesting
@@Goady1000 Well, it's not a disaster but if you compare against an MSCI World ETF over the period you'll see the point Ramin is making here. These have a high percentage US allocation though so, if you think the US is trouble bound, you might look for alternates. I'd always seek some sort of global diversification to taste rather than single country investing. The next Liz Truss is always around the corner 🤣
@@Mouxbar yh I do a mix I have 10% in indexes, 10% in premium bonds 10% cash and 70% stocks
As an impoverished retiree this is very beneficial information. Thanks 👍.
Glad it was helpful! @mikehardwicke23
@@Pensioncraft Quite interesting to see how the various 'Divi ETFs ' vary in performance over different time intervals/periods. I guess one can rotate on a 3 or 6 mthly basis as their cheap to buy/sell .
Damnit, I have tons of IUKD I bought for super cheap during the pandemic. This makes me worry. Would the same results show with something like VHYL?
Just DCA, it's great that the lump sum buy was during a cheap price. The example here with 2005 was somewhere close to a lump sum buy near the top of the market which of course would not be sustainable since some indexes will never grow back to that price. Combine with VHYL might work out too, aim for a 4-5% dividend overall with a 2-3% growth and you should be fine for 20-30 years when you decide to pull the plug.
Please, do something to improve audio's quality
Quality thumbnail!
Thanks @Lauren-iv4dh
LOVE the thumbnail, beautiful tongue in cheek stuff.
Glad you like it! @massafelipe8063
Warren buffet suggested a similar idea that one could sell a small percentage of Berkshire vs seek out high dividend stocks when retiring
@davidjones4130
I think he actually said put 90% in a very low cost S&P 500 index fund and combine with 10% in very short dated US treasuries, or a low cost fund that tracks those US treasuries, and rebalance once a year. Then just take an income from the total return, ie growth and income, dividends. Take a lump sum once a year for example. Also the S&P 500 index has beaten Berkshire Hathaway since 2009 by some margin, of course that's not to say it will continue to outperform. Perhaps for UK investors better approach use msci world, or ftse dev world index funds for example, be more diversified
@@fredatlas4396 yes I understand he has said for most investors to invest in the s&p.
He's also stated the former . A more tongue in cheek comment . To show how much Berkshire has grown and the selling a few stocks of would still beat dividend investing in terms of total return
No, please no! When an individual retires they do not care about the dividend yield- which changes with price. What they care about is the yield on their specific purchase. If I buy $100 of stock with a 5% yield I am earning $5 a year, if the stock drops by 50% and the dividend stays the same the dividend yield has doubled to 10%, but my income is exactly the same. Likewise if the stock doubles and the yield stays constant my 'yield' drops to 2.5%, but I still get exactly the same $5. If you want to retire with constant income from dividend bearing stocks what you care about is how stable the cash value of the dividend is, not the relative value of the dividend to the stock price.
So you took a year when the price was near its peak and made a conclusion of it. What if I would do the same but on 31st of March 2009? What if you take XYLD and use it for the same example in this video? Too many ifs, and that's how ppl use data to prove some point (mostly to sell you something more effective, like ARK INNOVATION ETF). Would be a great video by the way "what would happen to my savings If I had bought ARK mid-February 2021".
Great video. A topic I’ve been banging the drum on recently, so many people still think it’s free money 👍
I love free money
This is just a repeat of my rant, but I saw your response, and so it does not disappear into the comments I thought I would just reply.
This is in my opinion a truly awful piece of work. Where do I start?
I think you must have searched for one of the worst performing UK dividend funds to feature. A quick check of the Vanguard FTSE UK Income Index shows a fund that has a 5% dividend and some growth, and the Vanguard Global Equity Income has a nice 3.5% dividend and even better growth. So from my sample size of 2 from the world's most popular provider, I would say disproves your argument.
Rather it would have been more appropriate to look at the makeup of the FTSE 100. Banking & Insurance, Oil and Energy, Tobacco and Domestic Retailers, House builders! M&S is even returning to the FSTE 100. Our main market would not have looked out of place 100 years ago. So I ask you, do you really think it is paying a dividend that is holding these companies back, and the FSTE 100 in general?
Everyone makes a big deal about the lack of Tech stocks in the UK market, but these is a dearth of any companies that actually make anything, let alone Tech. So, we have Service providers. We then go and elect a government that everyone knew 15-ish years ago that had no interest in the domestic economy and was hell bent on removing us from the biggest market that we are trying to service.
I don't usually thumb down your videos, never actually, but this was an awful take.
The Tobester. The Machine!
What we need is an “Invest Fest 2023” to round the year off.
The headliners will be -
Ramin
Damo
Sasha
Tobester
It will be in the run up to xmas so will be full of feel good vibes and most of all ULTRA-DRY wit.
You know it makes sense.
Great comment Toby and I agree.But what about the performance of dividend growers that have a lower starting yield and can grow their dividend consistently through time.The evidence points to these companies outperforming with capital return as well.Would be interested to see you cover this in one of your videos.
@@mundungo5586 what's an example of such a dividend stock that if you bought today would outperform the market over the next 20 years?
"Imagine we have a chocolate factory........" You are so transparent Ramin 😂😂
What if you have a mixed portfolio. Growth and dividends. Would not that be a wise way of living off your dividends while growth increases?
Nope. The only thing that matters is total return.
Focusing on dividend as an investment strategy is something all inexperienced investors do
@@ChrisShawUK Focusing on growth is what overconfident people accustomed to a 40 year bull run on US stocks do though
@@MagicNash89 experienced investors focus on neither growth nor dividend.
The only thing that matters is market return. You can guarantee that over any time period you choose by investing in an index fund and never selling.
Investing has got nothing to do with confidence, or stock picking, or investment strategies.
Investing is mostly about temperament.
@@ChrisShawUK "You can guarantee that over any time period you choose by investing in an index fund and never selling." - Good luck with that: Japanese NIKKEI index 1991 - 2021 - ZERO NOMINAL RETURN (not counting for dividends, then maybe a couple of years before 2021). Is 30 years too small? Its what most people's most active lives before retirement last. Plenty of other examples from other countries. Investing is absolutely about investment strategy, picking the right index, stock or any other asset, confidence and patience in your choise AND having a plan B, hedging your investments.
@@MagicNash89 if you invest in the Nikkei then you get the market return of the Nikkei.
And it's absolutely critical to reinvest dividends otherwise you don't get compounding.
Inexperienced investors have a rosta of techniques such as dividend investing, stock picking and timing the market. That's what makes them inexperienced. Almost all of them underperform the market over any time period. Most then exit and just stay in cash or buy a property or whatever.
The stock market is just a machine to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient.
Excellent analysis - thank you so much. It helps to avoid some traps / seductions ...
Glad it was helpful! @markuss.5872
I clicked on this cause I read the title as "Dogging Dividend Disaster" which might have been a more interesting video.
Does the UK have their version of Silicon Valley?
Lol absolutely not
Cambridge is known as the Silicon Fen. But Edinburgh and Thames Valley probably have the biggest proportion of tech companies.
@@alan_davis Have they put out any kind of innovative products that might spur on economic investment in the UK? I ask because if the UK is struggling economically, would this not help alleviate those problems? I am sure that the answer is far more complex...
We try, but the vampires don't like unicorns frolicking in the fens.
Your classic UK fund manager or PE guy either hasn't got the funds to pump into tech (his shareholders/partners want income), is very short term (flippers) or risk averse/sceptical of the cash potential of the 'idea' business. Those of a different persuasion mostly flock to the US and occasionally western Europe, so even when we do get an interesting business going, they mostly up sticks and follow the money or get bought.
@@beancount811 Is the tax environment in the UK supportive of private equity?
Here in the USA dividend payers tend to be companies like financials, utilities, energy, real estate etc. It's obvious that growth has massively outperformed value in the past 20 years or so but are you showing recency bias? I think we are seeing structural shifts in the economy that may make it more similar to other times like the 1940's for example. 20 years is a long time but with most of that time with rates near zero I think you really need to look further back.
Hi @agsmith001 the US dividend funds tend to have higher dividend growth than ones in the UK where capital growth is generally lower. That's why I showed a US dividend fund too for comparison. But your point about value finally outperforming is an interesting one. I pity value investors after such an awful decade - they deserve a break! Thanks, Ramin.
Enjoyed this one Ramin - another nail in the UK equities are all wrong coffin ⚰️
(Closest I could get to the vampire analogy)...
No wait - UK Equity Sucks!
Was that better...?
What went wrong? First of all investing money into UK stock market that’s for the starters when you’re wanting growth, two investing into ETF - as you can’t really expect to live off of a one ETF in your retirement, as you’d have to have millions and millions of £. There are better opportunities in US stock market, where you can easily make diversified portfolio for income, dividend growth and stocks growth/price appreciation, having that in mind obviously there’s 15% withholding tax which even in that case would give you piece of a mind retirement in 30 years. Completely disagree with saying that US investors expect growth and that dividends are less generous lol and most likely you’ll never be better of investing into ETFs instead of single, high quality dividend growth/income stocks in decades when it comes to retirement.
This video might make some people upset
Schd?
Oh no… Ramon using the click bait thumbnails
When you quote US funds as solutions why don't you give UCITS equivalents for European subscribers to investigate?
maybe better said would be "be the vampire, not the victim" :)
8-)
Just invest in the S&P500 or global ETF and live by the 3% rule.
Although you would have struggled between 2000 through to 2010 taking 3% , Taking the s&p500 or global funds they struggled the S&P when nowhere and returned an annualised return of 0.96%
Global World fund did slightly better that was 2%
@@simonkemp1030 if someone had retired with all their money invested in the S&P500 in 1999 and they lived by the 3% rule, adjusted for inflation, their investment portfolio would have survived, even to this day.
🧛 Count Nakisa 🧛
Gladstone commercial is a great one to look at. Pays dividends monthly and has a current yield of just under 10%. Absolute bargain!
Very high yield = very high risk.
@@george6977 where's the risk? They've a long track record and some avoid as the dividends are monthly so not convenient for some.
Why do you have to lower yourself to doing a juvenile thumbnail
Agreed, I thought this channel was above childish clickbait
Ramon plz get a better mic.
Utter nonsense. Income investors use ITs, not this dismal ETF. The best ITs have quadrupled their dividends since 2000, way above inflation. The best dividends are largely paid by mature companies with little room left to grow. Do you expect BP, ULVR, BATS etc to suddenly grow if they stopped paying dividends. The dividend is the only reason to invest in them. Those who sell stock to live on rapidly run out of money.
I don't know many income oriented trusts with a TER of 40 bps. There are better and worse income ETFs, which would eat most UK trusts for breakfast as an income source.
Trust information isn't updated as often, which may be a good thing for the skittish, but their yields and NAVs also fluctuate over the business cycle, as per the underlying assets, especially if they are loaded up with cyclicals or debt laden defensive stocks. Some are downright abysmal and shadow a botched index at ridiculous rates, burning your capital in the process or just returning it to you as cash. Which defeats the point of investing in them!
While the investment vehicle as such is of secondary importance, total return and cost of ownership is very much a priority for an income investor, who wants to outpace inflation and not get robbed in the process.
Investing on the basis of TER is a false economy. List the income ETFs you claim eat income trusts for breakfast and list the trusts you're referring to also.
@@annacomnena217
On my platform, the cheapest UK income funds are from M&G (GB00B70D5799) and the most expensive ASI (abrdn) UK Income (GB00B7G8Q193).
Trusts fit in between those, but fairly pricey:
City of London Inv Tst is close to the lowest in terms of cost (GB0001990497)
Jpmorgan Claverhouse Investment Trust PLC (JCH) (GB0003422184)
Merchants Trust Ord MRCH (GB0005800072)
Classic UK income ETFs are:
UKDV (IE00B6S2Z822)
WUKD (IE00BYPGTJ26)
IUKD (IE00B0M63060)
The key differences I see are:
-Higher costs for Trusts; this will eat into total return and can vary
-Active management vs passive indexing
-Trusts deploy corporate and government fixed income, and occasionally alternative strategies to boost yield, which skews their performance
-Comparable ETFs offer similar or better yield
-Likewise ETFs are cheaper to own and more liquid
-Because they pool from the same source of assets, you really need to be confident Trust strategy has got legs and isn't just an index and fee approach.
By using a cheaper UK income ETF you're not losing out, and can still add cash, bonds, or whatever your heart desired to replicate what ITs claim to do. So why pay at least double for the privilege?
No IT will beat Nasdaq or SPX over the long term.
@@beancount811 City of London IT has an expense ratio of 0.37% and has increased its dividend every year for 50 years. Current yield is 5.35% but the premium is about 2%, which is about its 10-year average, but still you're paying a 2% over the odds for the underlying stocks. And those stocks are UK only, mainly financial services and consumer defensive, so it's hardly a diverse portfolio. The NAV is announced daily - there's plenty of information about it.
One way to spot an inexperienced investor is when they start giving rationale for why dividend investing is great
No its not.
@@rufanuf1 how do you spot an inexperienced investor?
@@ChrisShawUK I dont. It's none of my business.
@@rufanuf1 yes, that's exactly the problem. If you are unable to tell the difference between experienced and inexperienced investors, then you'll remain forever broke.
@@ChrisShawUK LOL how so? Your not them. Are you?
Surely, SURELY the prices of good quality dividend shares that pay 0.5-2% have to fall to bring those yields higher now ZIRP has gone. There's certainly little capital growth upside for now, so cash at 5% is the way to go.
There are good dividend shares and funds and there are bad dividend shares and funds, the same applies to growth shares and funds. The biggest risk is a lack of knowledge, the market is always right in the end.
Pls dont do open mouthed tricks on your videos. You arent 18 talking about make up.
at 58 unless i have a dividend portfolio i wont be able to retire in the UK in fact i will be moving to a cheaper country with my dividends and my pension and £23k in the cheaper country will go a heck of a lot further than the UK.
Portugal. 10% tax on Pension for 10 years.
@@roger4880 i wasn't clear sorry i have no intention of staying in any western country panama, malaysia, indonesia, philippines and many others have a territorial tax system i.e. no income tax on money from outside their territory and the philippines has an accord with the UK so you get the yearly raises in your pension. its food for thought and well worth looking into.