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Gene Munster: Nasdaq faces 20% correction that will likely last three months
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- Опубліковано 18 сер 2024
- Loup Ventures' Gene Munster breaks down the rate hike's impact on tech stocks. With CNBC's Brian Sullivan and the Fast Money traders, Guy Adami, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman and Pete Najarian. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: cnb.cx/2NGeIvi
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The title is misleading. He didn’t say this. He said for every 1% rate hike, there is 10-20% impact on valuation.
long yields are not rising. nasdaq is priced off the 10 yr. rate hike will induce economic slow down causing long yields to tank. i bet world is headed for deflation once this supply chain issue is sorted out.
this is the biggest tech bubble in history.
@@estring123 That would be the case for Japan. It's not the same story in the USA.
@@user-fx5sw4jy7hYz9Hzi the yield curve speaks much. 30 yr barely moved amidst all this fed panic. smart investors know there's no economic re-acceleration and the long yields are going the drain next year.
bear market coming 2023. buy defensives like staples/healthcare/utilities. this epic nasdaq bubble will pop, recession will hit these mega cap bubbles and pop them.
@@estring123 Absolutely right 30 year didn't move. If 30 year spiked that would be a concern signaling moving to safety. Bubble don't happen like this with mountains of worry where everyone's calling it a bubble. Bubble happens when everyone gives up and say it's a trend.
@@user-fx5sw4jy7hYz9Hzi that's what everyone thinks, the mega cap tech will continue this covid induced growth rate forever, that's required to justify today's p/e on the mega cap tech especially nvidia. when in reality they are likely to experience negative growth from these inflated earnings due to covid accelerated digitization.
mountains of worry are for the mid/small cap and loss making large caps which have dropped at least 50%, often more than 60%. everyone thinks the mega caps are safe as bonds, they think it's a trend forever.
this is why over half the stocks in nasdaq have CRASHED yet the index is at ATH. mega caps keep pumping higher, because everyone thinks "it's a trend" like you said.
From the ATH a 20 percent drop wouldn’t take 3 months. His forecast is 10-20 percent down the 1st quarter. If that’s the case the Nasdaq could reach that in one more day. Higher growth stocks are already down between. 30-60 percent from recent highs based solely on rumors of rate hikes with zero actual rate hike. This is already way overdone already.
Could also trade sideways that whole 3 month period but I agree with you
nasdaq is being held up by the tech bubbles FAAMG/nvidia/tesla. i agree many mid/small cap loss making stocks have been WAY overdone, but the mega caps have not even dropped at all. if the mega caps actually experience a correction and fall to their fair valuation, nasdaq should drop to 10000.
He may be referring to Q4 2018 dejavu where it took October to December 2018 (3 months) of downward spiral of 20% correction before rallying back to new ATH
This is how they get people to sell bottoms and then they do reverse when it’s at the top they say it’s going 20% more. But that point time to sell top.
I'd be interested to know how much the median nasdaq stock is already down, as you say plenty of stuff is down massively from ATH.
Make it 100% correction. Best time to buy after that
Yeah that makes sense
If you correct 100% then you have no stock left, believe it or not. Typical corrections are 10%-20% or so.
Not unless you like owning Bankrupt companies.
please buy the dip ✅
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It was in 2018 from Sept to Dec that Nasdaq dropped 22%.
Without tech no economy progress
tech bubbles are result of overspending and result in crashes. Large caps grew richer to extent that shaving doesn't impact. Small to mids get crushed and/or acq'd for cheaper mktcap.
I still found it so bizzare that Biden is crashing the only loyal allies during election - Big Tech 🙄
@@EASTSIDESEE I have been in the notion that big tech is heavily overvalued and are at bubble evaluations. But this time they literally breed money, come on Apple is literally better than a gold mine so is Microsoft and Google, Tesla is out here ripping in delivery numbers through a chip shortage. Just coming out of life where online is crucial and the way its going, why are airplane and cruises getting so much attention? They are losing money, ill buy the dip and continue to on the future and gold mines
@@ssuwandi3240 i find it so bizzarre that Biden is crashing clean energy stocks ...even tho hes so pro climate
schwarma on a spit....
Gene was bullish 3 days ago wtf
My money in the stock market is there for the long term. I will buy when some of my favorites go down. I love buying low.
How many times have we heard this story when there’s a down day in the market?
when the new say - the worst day since _____ . its usually the best time to buy
@@tonytran1054 I always wait for them to say THERE'S PANIC ON WALL STREET!! That's when I buy. 😅
@@radar0412 then you see a good bounce in the coming days! the media are bad people! lets see what happens Friday or Monday.
Dynamics are different right now. Valuations have been out of wack in much of Nasdaq. Party's over for a lot of names but not all.
@@tonytran1054 oops...mkt closed on monday
Oh FFS. So many small and mid caps are already off 40-70%. At what point do we call bluff on the numb nuts? And what else do we buy? “Safe” Banks or consumer stocks trading at record highs or bonds and get 2% on your money for ten years, not even keeping up with inflation. I’m sick of these ‘experts’
Haven’t they seen the market lately? It’s already priced in quite a bit of that
That guy face is : I shorted yesterday.
🤣🤣
A little known fact, Gene Munster played the NightKing in Games of Thrones.
Yep, same guy that played one of the Prison Guards in Shawshank.
Love Gene Munster, but every time he says omnicron instead of omicron I lose a little faith in his analyses.
that is funny, lol
He doesn't pronounce Nuclear right either!
We live in an interesting time, where 40-50% of retail knows this is all a scam to get us to buy high/sell low lol.
“Stocks are down a couple % .. “ some are down 70% +
a lot of those stocks have no path to profitability or crazy high P/S's. it'll be interesting to see how these stocks perform moving forward
This guy is clearly heavy on tech puts
Nobody knows anything. Just buy great companies and hold the stock for years and you'll make tons.
Exactly!
If you don't know anything about the stock market, then your strategy is true. But if I tell you AAPL is likely to drop 5-10% for the next 2 months, why are you buying now?
@@cchan848 Because we don‘t know whether it‘s going to fall. There are many people who wait and wait and wait for a correction and they never get in and miss out🤷🏻♂️
This is much wiser advice than it seems
@@callistomoon461 we kind of did know it would fall!
80% of the stocks on the Nasdaq are down more than 50%....the top 10 stocks on the Nasdaq are weighted more than 50% of the Nasdaq....these weight factors are so misleading of the whole market.
The same feeling when you have all your money in the market at the bottom falls out there's no way to describe it you have to go through it
Not if you get out before the fall
Got 3 months to build a position on the cheap and DCA in
Feels you ..
Somebody tell Gene Munster its not “Omni-cron”
Who gives a crap
omnicron is spelt = moronic! wit has no boundaries!
@D. J. you prefer dumb analysts who cannot speak written English properly. I’m not in that camp
Lol this is exactly what buffet means when he says buy the fear. Today there's doom and gloom all over. Half of nasdaq stocks down over 50%. Earnings begin tomorrow so starting tomorrow we head towards a new ATH
Wouldn’t be surprised. Nobody believes the Fed has the balls to fight inflation, which means assets continue to climb. That or a black swan event disrupts everything and we see how bad the debt problem really is underneath the surface.
Buffet isn’t buying today.
@@NicholasWHaley7 how would you know what Buffett is buying TODAY? Who said Buffett was buying anything today?
That doesnt sound gloomy at all
Earnings are already priced in. We are currently pricing in Fed rate hikes.
Lets go Brandon
Oh goodie, a market crash forecast. This means we won't have a correction
Not yet at least..I think we get a run into Jan and feb then March I will be careful
I bet you money the market is either up or down tomorrow.
Unlikely. It rarely ONLY goes up or down in the same day. Your statement is actually wrong. Or means exactly one of.
@@davidjames1684 I didn't say ONLY. Neither did I reference what market nor what time.
@@trip1ex It is still wrong because you stated either up OR down and when you say A or B, it means ONLY one can be true. So for a market to be either up or down (you didn't say at the end of the market day only), it would have to either go strictly up (not going down even a penny intraday), or go strictly down (not going up even a penny intraday). You do not have to state which market and/or which time, the way you structured your statement is guaranteed to make it false.
@@davidjames1684 lol everyone knows "the market was/is up or the market was/is down" is colloquial for how did the market close or how is the market at the moment.
Nevermind I said "I BET you money the market is up or down tomorrow." That's not a statement. It's a proposal. Thus it can't be "wrong."
@@trip1ex It is wrong. 2 opposites (up, down) separated by a disjuction (or) can only be true if it is purely all up or purely all down in relation to your statement, otherwise it is up AND down intraday. You lost the bet due to misunderstanding of the word or.
For growth stocks, it feels like the rate hikes have already been priced in.
Most growth stocks are currently trading at pre pandemic levels before rates dropped so I’m really not buying this
oops!
@@brunekhalifaman huh?
this guy looks like handsome squidward
All you have to know is the top 5% own like 90% of all stocks... Buy up
This could happen but I would buy the dip
The Nasdaq is almost 10% dropped from the ATH, 8% as of now.
More room to drop! Dotcom crashes 80%
@@kenji424 Dotcom p/e ratio at the peak was close to 300 , the nasdaq today is something like 30-40 . With the earnings companies are putting there is no way it can drop 80% , i would say max 20-30% .
Good! Let’s buy each week
Seriously they told us they would increase the interest rate 3 times during 2022. They said the final rate would be 100 basis points higher. What more specific do you need?
Tsla is all you need at this time.
You can't printed 40% of the money in circulation in the last 2 years and not have to pay the piper. ✌️
We've been paying that with inflation though for a whole 2 years so don't forget that
So if historically every 1% increase to rates means a 10% drop, but we are historically at high margin usage within the markets, wouldn’t that multiply the potential drop?
this right here is what im worried about. I only trade paper money, but all my paper money is liquid, not in stocks
I hope it goes down 20%. I’ll buy more. And then more down 25%. And then more down 30%. I’m investing for the future. Not today.
fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
This is all folks. Going balls deep in ARKK
Why can’t just the S&p drop 20%
Same dude thinks Tesla is undervalued… Time to buy!
“I’ll stay… i also like to live dangerously”
Fed will raise rate this year 3x, going from zero to 0.75pct and these idiots think it’s the end of the world for stocks. Less than 1pct interest and the world is collapsing. So if Volcker raised rate to 12pct in 1981, the market should have dropped 99pct. Lol
There was never this much debt in the system, and this many derivatives out there... it wont take much to move the markets to a sell.... but the reaction to prevent a real selloff will be mind bending
.. hundreds of trillions may be needed.... and the FED will reverse course and cut rates again
"I don't want to seem out of touch. I know some stocks are down a couple of percent." Uhhh some stocks are down over 60% lol.
Smart money like Bezos, Musk, along with many other CEOs and insiders selling end of the year I knew that was the top and I sold most of my stocks because its going to be nasty correction, good luck to all I hate to see average Joe gets left holding the bag.
Now that you mention it, even Microsofts CEO sold a bunch of his shares sometime around December...I shouldve taken the hint, now I'm down 6% on MSFT
LET'S GOOOOOOO BRANDON
What a misleading headline.
Let's say a company that's projected to achieve 10% CAGR for the next five year is valued at 30 PE and 1% rate increase (4 quarter of a % increases) brings its valuation down 10% to 27 PE;, that makes sense. What if a company is expected to deliver north of 10% CAGR? 1% of 20% CAGR for instance would be 5%. If Ford's CAGR is 2% as it has been for the last 5 years, 1% would mean 50% reduction in Ford's valuation. Why is then the effect of an increase in interest rate only applied to growth stocks?
20% correction in the Nasdaq will put us back to around March '21; 12,900s-13000s. Sounds about right, in my opinion. Keeping the powder dry.
Did you buy?
The FR needs to turn off the liquidity fire hose and raise rates .50 pts ASAP to begin to stomp on demand while the supply chain is still so extensively impaired.
Yeah, no.
N0 one can predict the bottom. I am in the market regardless of what the fed or inflation does. Either way it goes I grow faster in the market than be parked on the side line.
Tom Lee couple days ago "Relief rally in sight" Lmao these clowns
Main Street USA don’t give a F about omicron.
inflation is 7% and NASDAQ is down ~10%. So basically down 17% !! keep buying the dips. Big boys want to play games with you.
If not rate hikes it’s something else that creates unease in the wimpy us market. Just buy high growth tech now and avg down. Better to be in the market then time it. Just make Shure you do your research and have conviction in what you own. Also put in what you can afford to lose and invest for the long term don’t be a day trader you will get Caught with your pants down
Those poor hedge funds trapped in impossible short positions... How will they avoid margin calls?
Will it fall 20 30 40 50%, no one knows but we do know we're in a recession and it's the one hell of a correction so get ready for a one hell of a rough ride
Thanks for at having someone on willing to say something. But in all honesty "3 months". Everyone knows this is the next GFC or worse.
Took 6 months to bottom.
What is omnicron?
Try 50%
The bigger the better
Nasdaq is down already 14% from ATH
Seems old news 2019-20
Certain stocks dropping 20%
Specific stocks dropping 20%
Which ones ? Stay tuned, don't
touch that dial.
it is very simple folks.... inflation is really about 15%.... rates have to raise the FED is cornered.. this thing is coming down fast
i think the sp500 will slide -15% into the 2023
Gene is way smarter than me. But. Unlike many economic Talking Heads, I don't feel it is the fed's job to hold the Market's hand. They're supposed to address Unemployment and lending rates.
the market should be its own animal,
Gene Munster is talking his book. He is 50% in cash and wants a dump to 20% so he can load his truck up with cheap stock. The QQQ is already down 10%. Many high valuation stocks are down 50% from ATH. The economy is booming. I cannot see another 10% dump.
More pain is coming lol
Ain't nothing gonna happen.
"a clear direction of what the fed is doing"
How hiking rates to 2 % stop 7 % inflation?
Thankyou Gene!
hey tim is tesla a mega cap yet?
I think it's a little bit more. And 6 month. Unless the Fed stands up and shouts "Fools Day". we don't raise interests.
Nasdaq might drop 100% - gene
Pretty accurate!
I want a correction lasting three years, not months!
Stocks need to go down another 40%
Gene Munster, where is Apple TV ?
Time to buy some puts
50%cash so what do you expect him to say about the market.
It’s the Stonks guy!
Dont listen to these pundits trying to time the market. Just invest in index funds long term. Buck the trends.
History repeats itself. Expecting NASDAQ to drop at least 50% or more.
No. 50% drop in the index that mostly weighted by 5 megacap companies? For what? High growth high beta names are already down 50% or more.
It’s as good a guess as any I suppose.
A month and a half to go.
Give me a one armed economist. On one hand this, the other hand that.
Does Warren Buffets famous quote about being greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy pertain to a stock market that is propped up by some 60% of all Fiat currency printed off in the past 24 months?
I personally have notifications set on many mid large-cap stocks that are in the trading channel and moving averages before the pandemic began early 2020. At least 10 to 20% above those prices I believe that’s when I will buy in. I’d rather be heavier in cash and lose about 2-3 percent purchasing power over the next 2 quarters and wait for a huge correction than continually “buy low or buying the dip.” “Time in the market is always better than timing the market” but again with inflation rates rising tensions among other large economies the stock market is a joke right now.
Wasn't Gene Munster uber bearish on FB last year?
Cardano is the future
At least it will cost the democrats elections
I only own Allarity Therapeutics.
Wow, @7:46 MSFT at a Fwd PE of 0…is it time to buy? lol
I guess a correction is healthy.
Or just another 5% buy the dip
Three month fire sale!!!
No more money?
blame it on the cyberattacks 😄
The presenter really trying to pick the words out of the Gene’s mouth. Full story is good earnings might offset rates hike and in some cases FB, Google the inflation could actually help get better earnings .. go figure the final mix, stay invested stay long 🤑
Herman Munster
The Market has gone up for 13 years like a Hockey Stick! ln March2020 l said they got the money but will they get to keep it.The Stock market is a grand wave top since the1800s we will never in our lifetimes see these highs again.lts really being a depression since2009 best of luck, and l have never brought a stock in my life just followed it for 13 years.