Excellent lad! I did a similar sheet myself based on a previous video of yours. However, I added an improvement, I calculated the new Elo rating when a team advances to the next round. Thanks for your work. Cheers.
G’day lad, the formula was derived by FIFA themselves to calculate the Win % of two teams facing each other, based off of the FIFA Women’s World Rankings. In a couple of hours I’ll put up a link to the document where FIFA announced this 👍
Thanks for watching lad 🔥 The simulations fall under the umbrella of Monte Carlo, as they’re simulating a multi-step process over and over again producing different results (due to randomness).
Hi lad, unfortunately it becomes a bit difficult to apply ELO ratings to a group stage tournament. This is because ELO Ratings operate on a Win/Loss basis and are an overall rating of a team's strength. The only way draw probabilities can be calculated with confidence is through calculating expected goals for each team in a matchup. For that, you would need ATT & DEF Strength Ratings rather than an overall ELO. I hope that helps lad 👍
Hi lad, unfortunately the FIFA Ratings are only able to be interpreted as a Win/Loss outcome for each game (or a Progression/Elimination in the tournament). To include 1x2 outcomes, ATT & DEF Ratings are generally required rather than overall ELO-type team ratings. This is because to calculate the probability of a draw, you must theoretically sum the probability of scorelines 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, etc. Without an expected goals (xG) figure, which the FIFA Ratings cannot obtain, finding the probability of a draw becomes more of an estimate versus the true probability… Hope that helps lad 🔥
G’day lad, yes that will definitely be released. Unfortunately I’ve had some filming issues with that video in particular 😢 So the plan is that I’ll release an EPL Season Simulator video first (in the next few days) and the Part 2 video immediately after that 🔥 Apologies for the delay lad…
G’day lads, comment down below if you have any questions 💪
Need a spreadsheet built? Visit: www.excelladz.com
Excellent lad! I did a similar sheet myself based on a previous video of yours. However, I added an improvement, I calculated the new Elo rating when a team advances to the next round. Thanks for your work. Cheers.
That’s excellent lad 🔥 Top notch stuff, I’m glad to be able to help you with the first part 💪
Excellent video lad, this was very helpful
one idea for future followup video is to do the same but add in-tournament updates, to incorporate latest results-hence updated elo rannkings
How do you come up with these formulas/ can you make a video on how you derive the formulas?
G’day lad, the formula was derived by FIFA themselves to calculate the Win % of two teams facing each other, based off of the FIFA Women’s World Rankings. In a couple of hours I’ll put up a link to the document where FIFA announced this 👍
That was really good especially the fact you can run simulations, does that have anything to do with the Monte carlo which is used for Horse racing?
Thanks for watching lad 🔥 The simulations fall under the umbrella of Monte Carlo, as they’re simulating a multi-step process over and over again producing different results (due to randomness).
@@excel_ladz Thanks
Hey! Would it be possible to have one done with a group stage? I really want to do this for the 2024 Euro.
Hi lad, unfortunately it becomes a bit difficult to apply ELO ratings to a group stage tournament. This is because ELO Ratings operate on a Win/Loss basis and are an overall rating of a team's strength. The only way draw probabilities can be calculated with confidence is through calculating expected goals for each team in a matchup. For that, you would need ATT & DEF Strength Ratings rather than an overall ELO. I hope that helps lad 👍
@@excel_ladzthanks! I definitely want to try that. Do you know where I can find these ratings?
Greetings, can you please make for the 1x2 outcomes?
Hi lad, unfortunately the FIFA Ratings are only able to be interpreted as a Win/Loss outcome for each game (or a Progression/Elimination in the tournament). To include 1x2 outcomes, ATT & DEF Ratings are generally required rather than overall ELO-type team ratings. This is because to calculate the probability of a draw, you must theoretically sum the probability of scorelines 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, etc. Without an expected goals (xG) figure, which the FIFA Ratings cannot obtain, finding the probability of a draw becomes more of an estimate versus the true probability… Hope that helps lad 🔥
Thank you for the reply
Is there a part 2 for the nba tournament ?
No worries, answered on Twitter
G’day lad, yes that will definitely be released. Unfortunately I’ve had some filming issues with that video in particular 😢 So the plan is that I’ll release an EPL Season Simulator video first (in the next few days) and the Part 2 video immediately after that 🔥 Apologies for the delay lad…
Can you make one for Premier League 23/24
Absolutely lad, I’m planning for this to be my next video 🔥