Imagine being the person who the mathematician comes back to because they've explored all their options and according to the algorithm found out you're the best one and you still decide to take them back
40:00 What about FOMO, or fear of missing out, where instead of dwelling on missed (unseized) opportunities in the past, you dwell on missed (unevaluated) opportunities in the future? With the cost to "play the slot machine," or message another potential date online, growing ever smaller in today's more connected society, FOMO seems to be on the rise. Susceptibility to regret versus FOMO likely varies person to person depending on wide ranging factors like prior luck, patience, faith in the system, and your personal utility function (i.e. is it best-or-nothing for you, or would you be just as happy with any outcome above a threshold value). I know that I personally am more prone to regret than FOMO, so like Bezos, this is what I tend to minimize for, but the same may not necessarily be good advice for others.
Aren't there a lot of assumptions in each of the algorithms suggested for the problems? Are these assumptions mentioned in the book? For example, the parking problem ... Is the assumption that the parking is unmanned? Could there be a different pattern for roadside parking vs parking in a mall vs parking in a business complex?
Is the 37% rule valid for unordered things? For example I've 10 candy samples and I've to select the best and I've time constraints. So randomly selecting 37% to evaluate and selecting the best Except those 37% group of sample
How can you calculate the probability of being caught as a robber if your probability of getting caught is going to be 0 until you're caught? For example, if you have 3 successful robberies, then by looking at previous outcomes (3 out of 3 robberies being successful), you'll conclude that the probability of a successful robbery is 1.0 or 100%.
+Jon Wise I think you should start by learning to compose full and meaningful sentences in the English language. (EDIT: The comment has now been changed.)
I think the answer comes in terms of probabilities derived from other ways. Perhaps you look at the overall statistics, not just the statistics of your own instances. Perhaps you can calculate it by composed events of a robbery, which would be much more involved, but still separate from purely your own experiences, and valid. One component in the very long equation may be the probability of leaving your DNA at the scene * probability of them finding it. Another component would be the likelihood of getting away from cops should you end up in a high speed chase, given the probability that you end up in a high speed chase. The probability you can get them to cough up the money without them alerting authorities via the proverbial panic button under the desk. Combine all these, and you'd have a probability based on the average bank, or your specific target bank, which would be independent of your own runs. So the short answer is, use probabilities based on external data, or relevant and related enough data. And if all else fails, engage in the mathematically heavy endeavor of calculating probabilities up from elementary events or events broken down sufficiently enough.
Can this be classified as a religion? Or can religion be classified as an algorithm? This book seems like a very individual-focused religion in that case...
+jandroid33 maybe the better analogy would be 'A Rulebook to live by' like the bible or other religious rulebooks. A full blown religion usually has parts that have to be believed because they are not scientifically provable and focuses around holy objects.
Aren't all ideas quasi algorithm? If I have an established procedure given to me by religion for particular scenarios, that I don't stray from because that's the software programmed into me. How am I not acting out an algorithm?
Friend, Front end "exploration" / Back end "exploitation", seems to describe Mormon Batch Dating & single / drawn out Victorian Courting. In both cases presumably without sex.
Wow, this is bad... Sorry, but this is knowledge normal people get in high-school, y'know... when they START dating, (as opposed to after finishing their PhD in the nerd's case, I'm guessing?) No one should be married before finishing college, so that's 8 YEARS a normal person has dated. If you don't know what you want from relationships after 8 years, you NEVER will... Math won't help you.
One problem with implementing Optimal stopping in real might probably be, it is not worth it go to the extent of 37% in terms of time and effort for the payoff of that particular problem.. and it is worth it in some other problems to go beyond because of it's payoff.. or I haven't understood the underlying mathematical structure properly..
3:29 Chapter 1 Optimal Shopping
10:25 The Secretary Problem
17:15 When to sell
18:45 When to Park
35:05 "we should actually expect to get steadily happier through life" lmaooooo good one
Imagine being the person who the mathematician comes back to because they've explored all their options and according to the algorithm found out you're the best one and you still decide to take them back
First
Algorithm
1. Watch youtube
2. If no comment on video , type
3. Repeat for next video.
So hard pill to swallow!!!
40:00 What about FOMO, or fear of missing out, where instead of dwelling on missed (unseized) opportunities in the past, you dwell on missed (unevaluated) opportunities in the future?
With the cost to "play the slot machine," or message another potential date online, growing ever smaller in today's more connected society, FOMO seems to be on the rise.
Susceptibility to regret versus FOMO likely varies person to person depending on wide ranging factors like prior luck, patience, faith in the system, and your personal utility function (i.e. is it best-or-nothing for you, or would you be just as happy with any outcome above a threshold value). I know that I personally am more prone to regret than FOMO, so like Bezos, this is what I tend to minimize for, but the same may not necessarily be good advice for others.
Emma is the best! Thanks for such an inspiring talk!
Bon soie
This has given me a lot of ideas, thank you. :)
Bon soir
I am wondering about how I could use these algorithms to be most efficient and accurate when evaluating students essay on English literature.
Aren't there a lot of assumptions in each of the algorithms suggested for the problems?
Are these assumptions mentioned in the book?
For example, the parking problem ... Is the assumption that the parking is unmanned?
Could there be a different pattern for roadside parking vs parking in a mall vs parking in a business complex?
These Talks at Google are becoming; "what way can we solve the San Francisco housing crisis today?"
lol
yes
So why does a 50% chance of rejection bring the chance of success to 25% from 37%?
Because these numbers are made up
nice presentation guys
Ted Ed brought me here
Yes
@@WiserMiser 😊😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅
I'm shocked. This is fucking genius.
Is the 37% rule valid for unordered things? For example I've 10 candy samples and I've to select the best and I've time constraints. So randomly selecting 37% to evaluate and selecting the best Except those 37% group of sample
If it was ordered listing it wouldn't have been choosing out of 37% ... You would literally know the best one to pick will be the best of ordered list
:) how can I catch their speech!!
What ancient computer processor had L2 cache off-chip?
Overall, through many visits to casino slots expect to lose 80% of your money. If you can still have fun losing 80% than you are OK and good to go.
It s nice this computation
So where is the sequel
Can these information be used in real life… Any real life case studies please
I love geeks. Good luck to you.
Wonderful
How can you calculate the probability of being caught as a robber if your probability of getting caught is going to be 0 until you're caught? For example, if you have 3 successful robberies, then by looking at previous outcomes (3 out of 3 robberies being successful), you'll conclude that the probability of a successful robbery is 1.0 or 100%.
+Jon Wise I think you should start by learning to compose full and meaningful sentences in the English language. (EDIT: The comment has now been changed.)
I'm dying.
hey, that's offensive. My butthole is not tanned.
I think the answer comes in terms of probabilities derived from other ways.
Perhaps you look at the overall statistics, not just the statistics of your own instances.
Perhaps you can calculate it by composed events of a robbery, which would be much more involved, but still separate from purely your own experiences, and valid.
One component in the very long equation may be the probability of leaving your DNA at the scene * probability of them finding it. Another component would be the likelihood of getting away from cops should you end up in a high speed chase, given the probability that you end up in a high speed chase. The probability you can get them to cough up the money without them alerting authorities via the proverbial panic button under the desk. Combine all these, and you'd have a probability based on the average bank, or your specific target bank, which would be independent of your own runs.
So the short answer is, use probabilities based on external data, or relevant and related enough data. And if all else fails, engage in the mathematically heavy endeavor of calculating probabilities up from elementary events or events broken down sufficiently enough.
Jeehoo Ahn
Thanks for the answer.
Can this be classified as a religion? Or can religion be classified as an algorithm? This book seems like a very individual-focused religion in that case...
+jandroid33 maybe the better analogy would be 'A Rulebook to live by' like the bible or other religious rulebooks. A full blown religion usually has parts that have to be believed because they are not scientifically provable and focuses around holy objects.
Aren't all ideas quasi algorithm? If I have an established procedure given to me by religion for particular scenarios, that I don't stray from because that's the software programmed into me. How am I not acting out an algorithm?
It's a relationship notta religion just their world view and not bad to adodpt considering the eternal life.
It's math
Please!!!
Can anyone summerize video?
Video good or bad?
Video good
Timestamps anyone??
can you do an algorithm on where ISIS would attack next in Europe so I know which train station to avoid ??
You can basically use trains done by Poland xD
Friend, Front end "exploration" / Back end "exploitation", seems to describe Mormon Batch Dating & single / drawn out Victorian Courting. In both cases presumably without sex.
48:54 no es guchi
Interesting waiting is good
Can you be clear sir what you want to do speak needed sir
And then Tinder incorporated
He sounds like Elon Musk that doesn't talk so slowly and has an accent.
He looks like Bill Clinton though
Wow, this is bad... Sorry, but this is knowledge normal people get in high-school, y'know... when they START dating, (as opposed to after finishing their PhD in the nerd's case, I'm guessing?) No one should be married before finishing college, so that's 8 YEARS a normal person has dated. If you don't know what you want from relationships after 8 years, you NEVER will... Math won't help you.
Today I learned I’m not normal
So... She was not best option. I still have time.
Just coating concepts people already intuitively live by with jargon and statistics. Pretentious and pointless.
booaring, only useful for the unfitted for life
One problem with implementing Optimal stopping in real might probably be, it is not worth it go to the extent of 37% in terms of time and effort for the payoff of that particular problem.. and it is worth it in some other problems to go beyond because of it's payoff.. or I haven't understood the underlying mathematical structure properly..