3 Bear Market Indicators to Watch For | Fisher Investments
Вставка
- Опубліковано 23 лип 2024
- Think you can spot the next bear market? It may be more difficult than you think. Even if you think a downturn is ahead, trying to time the market is one of the biggest risks you can take for your investing goals. In this Fisher Investments Market Insights video, Bryan Schofield discusses the dangers of trying to time market downturns, as well as some indicators that a deep, prolonged downturn is underway.
A bear market is defined as a fundamentally driven drop of about 20% or more over an extended period. It may seem easy to pinpoint a bear market in hindsight, but identifying a bear market in the early stages is much more difficult. The key is having perspective on what you should watch for and the discipline to prevent your emotions from getting in the way.
There are many indicators a bear market is under way, but our research has shown that bear markets start in one of just two ways: the “wall” or the “wallop.” The “wall” refers to the end of the “wall of worry” bull markets climb. The bull market climbs the wall of false fears until investors believe that the market will rise forever and they develop an “it’s different this time” mindset. Once investor sentiment reaches euphoria, stock results cannot keep up with sky-high expectations and the bull market runs out of steam. The “wall” feature is often accompanied by another important indicator of a downturn: underappreciated fundamental market weaknesses.
We refer to the other way that bull markets end as “the wallop.” The wallop is an unexpected negative big enough to knock a few percentage points off global GDP, “walloping” an otherwise strong economy and bull market. For more on these bear market factors and other indicators to look for, watch on.
Connect with us on:
Facebook - / fisherinvestments
Twitter - / fisherinvest
LinkedIn - / fisher-investments
Great video
Investors hate losses more than they enjoy gains. Ok, but what about missing out on gains...or sitting on sidelines while mkt is gaining. Where does that rank? Great information here btw!
Great video! The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is very helpful. It allows me to ignore all other noise and check on the economy once a month.
i thought this guy didn't mention Conference Board LEI in this video?
Brad Taylor how did this turn out? 😂
In my opinion we are in a "its different this time" mindset.. The people saying things like "the fed will print more money, if things going worse" or "tina! There is no alternative!".
Yes we also have the people who saying "the skyhigh valuation isnt right or realstic blablah" but their drop or downturn estimations could be right for the wrong reasons.
I haven't that experience to feel how much euphoria must be on that point to be carefully or how many pessimists are still out there if most people are partying on a new normal situation..
But im shure human behavior on youtube channels and other media is the best indicator if you follow and study long enough that behavior.
So...we are ripe for a bear market?
Yes but as the saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent