Hey guys maybe this quick explanation will help some of you with the math regarding probability. If something has a 1% chance and you do it twice, the chance is not 2 out of 100 but 2 out of 200.
Probability doesn’t change with opportunity the probability is fixed you could never get the item at all even with a 1000 spins but the likely hood of doing so would be higher save up until you have however much you need for a guaranteed reward
Truth be told, if every draw has an equal 2.25% chance for a Unique Draw, a 33% for probability B, and a 64.75% for probability C, you would only have roughly a 64% chance of hitting a unique on 45 spins. If anything, after 99 spins the chances of having gotten a unique is equal to about 89.5%. So the 100th spin guaranteeing it is basically feeling sorry for you so it hands you the remaining 10%, lol. Theoretically, it would take 400+ draws to have a 100% chance of a probability of 2.25% to occur.
@@MonWithPlon-LegendofMushroom It's a calculation of repeated probability. If you only rolled once, the chances would be as stated. With continuous rolls, your theoretical chance of gaining a favorable outcome increases with the number of repetitions. This is always from the perspective of not having rolled even once yet. (eg. if you already rolled 10 times, it's not like your chances magically go up on the 11th roll. You determine the overall outcome based on how many rolls you're willing to use in the calculation upfront). In a nutshell, you find the probability of an event NOT occurring in one roll (97.75/100), and we're rolling 45 times. That would make it .9775 (97.75%) to the power of 45 (rolls) = .359 (not occurring at all), leaving roughly 64% of it occurring at least once.
@@VanWelij This is why I hate math. Because in order to determine your chances among other chances it's easier to find out how unlikely it is to happen than the other way around and no matter how you do it, it's not intuitive without practice.
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Hey guys maybe this quick explanation will help some of you with the math regarding probability. If something has a 1% chance and you do it twice, the chance is not 2 out of 100 but 2 out of 200.
Probability doesn’t change with opportunity the probability is fixed you could never get the item at all even with a 1000 spins but the likely hood of doing so would be higher save up until you have however much you need for a guaranteed reward
Truth be told, if every draw has an equal 2.25% chance for a Unique Draw, a 33% for probability B, and a 64.75% for probability C, you would only have roughly a 64% chance of hitting a unique on 45 spins.
If anything, after 99 spins the chances of having gotten a unique is equal to about 89.5%. So the 100th spin guaranteeing it is basically feeling sorry for you so it hands you the remaining 10%, lol.
Theoretically, it would take 400+ draws to have a 100% chance of a probability of 2.25% to occur.
Thanks for your input. Can you please explain the 64% on 45 spins? I just did 100/2.25 since they categorized the 3 items as 1
@@MonWithPlon-LegendofMushroom It's a calculation of repeated probability. If you only rolled once, the chances would be as stated. With continuous rolls, your theoretical chance of gaining a favorable outcome increases with the number of repetitions. This is always from the perspective of not having rolled even once yet. (eg. if you already rolled 10 times, it's not like your chances magically go up on the 11th roll. You determine the overall outcome based on how many rolls you're willing to use in the calculation upfront).
In a nutshell, you find the probability of an event NOT occurring in one roll (97.75/100), and we're rolling 45 times. That would make it .9775 (97.75%) to the power of 45 (rolls) = .359 (not occurring at all), leaving roughly 64% of it occurring at least once.
@@VanWelij This is why I hate math. Because in order to determine your chances among other chances it's easier to find out how unlikely it is to happen than the other way around and no matter how you do it, it's not intuitive without practice.
we can SAVE them ?!?
learned that and been saving now at 80!!
And i still wouldnt even win one of the prizes nor would i get it without buying the dang thing haha id still lose haha
does drawing x1 increases the odds than drawing 10x? damn i hate math. hahaha
I thing that when the event ends it will reset
It won't. Only the special events coins will reset
How do u always have so much gems draws etc?
Daily tasks and dungeons gives me about 5-10k everyday. + packs and a active alliance (gifts)
Yeah coins convert to gold when event ends now
For special spin events such as PePe, it converts to gold. The lucky spinner event coins can be saved.