Housing Inventory is Exploding in Florida!
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- Опубліковано 17 жов 2024
- Housing inventory is exploding in Florida. For example, there’s more single-family homes for sale this March than any other month since October 2019 (inventory is at a 4.5 month high). Additionally, there’s more than twice as many homes for sale in Florida from just two years ago. Also, the share of price reductions in Florida is at least a 5-year high for this time of year.
In today’s video, I share the latest developments including single-family home prices in Florida as well as pending home sales, share of cash sales and much more. See links below for the reports I shared.
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Source of the reports I went over in the video:
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To give you a quick mortgage interest rates update, according to the Mortgage News Daily the average 30 yr fixed rate mortgage is around 7.4% for the current mortgage rates (at the time of filming this video for those with excellent credit).
Comment below: what’s your housing market forecast? Do you think a housing crash will happen or are your housing market predictions that the real estate market and home prices will continue to surge?
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Jason Walter is not a practicing tax accountant or a licensed attorney or financial adviser. Therefore, the information in these videos shall not be relied upon as tax, legal, or financial advice from a qualified perspective. If you need such advice, please contact a qualified tax accountant, attorney, or financial adviser. We have taken reasonable steps to check that the information in this video is accurate but we cannot represent that it is free from errors. You expressly agree not to rely upon any information contained in this video - it is for entertainment purposes only.
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Thanks for the FL details! We are still on the sides, waiting for these crazy prices to fall to a reasonable price.
Data looks to be favorable
@user-oy5wk6sg5f
Everyone has their own plan in place. Interest alone on a home can be 3 to 4 times the original purchase price after the loan terms are completed
@@WelcomeIncorporated yes but that is not a 30 year long lease
@@WelcomeIncorporated The owners certainly enjoy having renters occupy their house.
Only the loan amount:
$550K @ 7%, 30 yr = $1,317,240
$350K @ 7%, 30 yr = $838, 440
Diff = $478,800
A couple of years in rent doesn't equal the diff.
@@WelcomeIncorporated Seems like we have different ways of looking at things 🙂
These next couple of years are going to be interesting. Looks like rate cuts might be off the table this year and mortgages rates just jumped up past 7% again.
@user-oy5wk6sg5f yes, the market will never change. It's not like anything is different now than it was in 2020 - 2022 right? Markets don't have cycles and they definitely don't change based on quatitative tightening or easing. Inventory isn't growing and people aren't broke. Buy now or miss out on another 10% gain year after year into infinity. 😂😂
@@WelcomeIncorporated Nothing just continuously goes up, I've been in RE for 16 years just like every market there are boom and busts cycles.
I like it because it's a fairly predictable market, and it is slow moving. I swear everyone and their dog has been saying a crash will happen on X date but they fail to mention we cannot have a correction without inventory which we're starting to see it pick up.
@@jamess5872this correction is really only happening in fl and Texas. Everywhere else in North America prices are still going up. And it’ll likely go up even more once interest rates get cut.
Well, flat RE prices with high inflation across most other goods & services is like housing prices going down.
So if they stayed relatively flat for 5-10 years (
@@WelcomeIncorporated Over 5-10 years dude. Thats the point I made. Read better.
It's great that there are more houses on the market, but the prices are still WAY overpriced.
Prices don't fall overnight, first you need inventory
@@thesoccertrotter1 Not in California , the more track houses built , the more the prices for ALL houses go up ! regardless if only one in a hundred sell in three months , the prices never go down ! and foreign construction in the state is invited for large subdivisions , Climate Change or no Climate Change ! Ef'em all
@@christinadaly7743you need over supply for prices to do gown.
@@christinadaly7743California crashed too in 08’. Inventory needs to rise, demand needs to softened. Everything is gradual.
Insurance and taxes are killing demand
Where's the political will for insurance reform? It's crazy.
@@chrisrutkowski4247 lol. public opinion has 0 correlation with legislation. Only moneyed interests like (the insurance lobby and AIPAC) sway political action.
Good job J covering FL; but I’m still waiting for 25% downturn from todays pricing
Yeah i think a 20-25% cut would be where it would be at if it just keep increasing 4-5% q year from 2019 on. That would make sense. The prices just seem insane for where incomes are in Florida.
You will get it also Anthony, be patient.
Thanks so much for covering FL!
I live central east coast FL. We're absolutely on the brink of collapse, every industry is slowing down, every engineering firm is laying people off, and homes here are 120% more expensive than 2019 even though 2019 already saw new all-time highs at the peak of a 10-year economic cycle. Home prices according to FRED economic data are 43% more overvalued than 2007 peak bubble in the US nationally and roughly 90% more overvalued than 2007 peak bubble in Florida, and we saw homes crash 60% in 2009 -2010 here. To put that in perspective, the median income in FL is only up about 30% since 2007 peak bubble and home prices are up around 130% since those bubble peaks.
tried to buy there but it is nearly impossible to run a short term rental
Seems like states that have large amounts of new construction (FL, TX) are basically back to pre-pandemic inventory levels, but higher prices. That scale of new construction is nearly impossible in CA.
That’s is why I do not foresee prices lowering by much in Ca .
The population to available homes is an issue .
A lot of cites are encouraging ADU .
This is really interesting! Would appreciate it if you included specific information about the Palm Beach County, Fort Lauderdale/Miami area since it seems to be so different from the rest of the state. Thanks!
Some of the best information on this crazy housing market. Data driven as always.
Thanks once again
So nice of you, Rene!
Bubbles going to pop and everyone trying to get out. No thanks enjoying my 5.4% treasuries. Good luck
Happy Monday Jason👍 Maybe it’s the cost of insurance🤷🏽♂️ I read it’s getting quite expensive out there
Still cheap compared to California
And property taxes as well. Good morning!
Jason, you're one of the most balanced people I listen to. I listen to crash bros and I listen to housing bulls. Is this market the new norm? High interest and high prices, or lower interest and even higher prices going forward? Do you think homes ever become affordable again, or did the middle class just have the housing dream ripped out from under them somehow? If so, how did COVID take us from the market we had before to nobody will ever afford a home again unless they're rich?
Yes, no, yes, and Covid created a flight to assets primary homes…
Your channel is the first I go to every day! Florida is interesting as it was a hot market earlier but apparently insurance prices have gone up there. I would LOVE to see your take on California. Sold my home in Santa Rosa, Dec. last year. Miss the weather and all the good organic food available. Please do a data analysis on California when you can. I know Famers Insurance is no longer writing policies there as well as another company, which I can't remember at this exact moment. Considering Humboldt, Mendocino, and Lake Counties as I can no longer afford Sonoma County. I'm currently in a house I paid cash for in Walla Walla, WA. -5 degrees this winter. Too cold for me, not enough evergreens! Inventory here is very limited but competitively priced homes usually go into pending in about 3-5 days.
His California videos come out usually the 3rd and 4th week of the month. He does CA in two parts from State wide to County wide
Thank you for supporting the channel! I post two CA videos per month: one at the state level and another at the county level. I plan to post a new CA update in 1-2 days.
I just reviewed this data this morning. I think in order for us to see price declines, we're going to have to have more inventory come on the market in the lower price ranges, 200k-300k. Median prices will move up as sales of 1 million or more increases and less sales happen in the 100k-300k, but the majority of inventory is increasing in the 400k-600K price range and why the average price stays in stable or increases. It's going to be interesting to see what happens this year as interest rates stay in the 7s or crosses into the 6s. Also I'd like to add that just because we have inventory increases doesn't mean prices will fall if no transactions are happening. This is why we didn't see price decline in 2022 when inventory skyrocketed, no comps were made. There is still a high demand from inbound migration from other states.
There was a huge price decline when inventory increased in 2022...just go look at the data. Not sure if you just made that up or what but what you said is factually incorrect.
@@charder47 I follow the data and price decreases increased but the prices of homes still increased on a YOY basis. We're on the same path right now. I look at the data everyday and post it on my channel for my local market. This also depends on your market. Naples has seen negative numbers but other markets are still up
@@Needglory23 I do think with the insurance issue and property tax increases could bring more supply on than there is qualifying demand. I think there could be some price discovery over the next 4 years if this issue doesn't get fixed. Hurricane season is coming up and could make the situation worse.
I live in Florida and the changes over the past 5 years are just crushing for first time homebuyers.
I bet, Kelly :/ I'm posting a FL condo update tomorrow. Big changes happening there.
Prices are toooooo high still 😢
I've been saying this for months. Prices are too high. Everyone is looking at rates, not prices.
Thanks Jason you’re the best. I live in Palm Beach, Florida. And I think things are much worse than what they (Fl association of. Realtors) projected. I question their data.
I know in SW FL where I'm at there are a ton of houses for sale, even looking on zillow confirms this.
300k for a mobile trailer in Florida they’re crazy I rather sleep in my car.
Lol, I would too if I was single with no kids.
I live in a beautiful 1500 sqft 3 bedroom 2 bath highly upgraded mobile home. I paid 240k 2 years ago, I could easily sell for 320k today . Have fun in your car
Me, too! But my car is a camper 😅
@@markme4 Yeah , and the space rent goes up too , who would live like that ? not for long anyway
@@christinadaly7743 That's a fair point, I'm staying for one more year, mean time the interest I'm earning from the equity from my house is paying the rent and I made a little on the home. Better than renting an apartment.
Inventory might be exploding but so are the prices, interest rates, insurance, and taxes. Unless you’re all cash and can self-insure, you won’t stand a chance here unless you’re wealthy. One more storm here and the rates will double again for insurance.
Agreed
Inventory is exploding because people can't afford the homes, neither can buyers.
Prices are generally dropping. The median is being skewed. I’m seeing price drops left and right.
Any data on HOA increases for the past 2-3 years? I am sure that they are exploding due to insurance skyrocketing!
In metro areas houses are selling in 5 day, still multiple offers, bidding wars and many selling above price
High insurance is part of the issue but i think prices are just too high for where incomes are in Florida.
How can I get info on how many people are moving into my area (32259)? Developers are still building a lot and opening new subdivisions but I wonder if that growth is matched with the interest.
People are finding out that Florida Man is real and not just a myth.
I believe this, but can the "explosion" please spread to other places more quickly? (saying this as if you have control over it lol)
Look to last time. It started in Florida and cali first
@@Coffeendonutsit’s certainly not going on in Cali. It’s only happening in FL and TX. Everywhere else including Canada and Australia have prices climbing higher and higher
@@stephet3683 that isn't true... i'm a midwest metro which everyone keeps saying is "safe" for no price drops, but we're down 4% yoy as we speak.
Think this is a tipping point?
If you could cover Utah, I’d greatly appreciate it!
Sure, but they are at record high prices! That's the reason why ppl might be willing to sell
Florida crash in real estate has been forecast for the last ten or fifteen years. I've seen prices going higher and higher.
And just like that its official, we are in a buyers market.
😂😂
It still does not solve the problem with investors buying property up. In a strange way it's close to a Monopoly and why the wage gap is getting out of control. Investors are not sitting on cash but buying properties up, then renting them out keeping inventory low so prices and rent is staying high they have so much 33% of residential homes they basically control the market. They want to keep the market up because that is where their investments are so they will do what that can to keep those prices high because it's good for them and their investors.
Who is right? ClearValue Tax or this guy?
Clear value is a great guy, but he’s an accountant. Jason was an accountant and is a realtor.
I'm just reporting a new housing report from Florida without speculation. Has Clear Value done a FL housing market update? I thought he covers a national update once per month-ish.
😂😂
Please cover Buffalo
Hurry up and buy now before prices go down 😂
😂😂😂
Who saw this coming 😂 #me
Home values are declining rapidly in Florida and Massachusetts.
Tag! I found the 🤡's post. 🤣
Prices will skyrocket now right? Real estate is the dirtiest business. It’s worse than a used car market.
-90% in 2025
Dumb comment
Florida has a crash about every 10 to 15 yrs., and then the hurricanes come. Not much future in a state that will go half way under water or spend trillions (taxes) defending dry land. The state is now competing with Mexico, central and South America for winter warmth. Property taxes and HOA fees just keep going up. And golf is becoming a rich man's sport again.
It's just the gully, that's all.
😂
🎉🎉
Crash incoming
100% mathematically guaranteed, unless the government pulls a Venezuela and prints 20 trillion dollars and causes actual collapse by devaluing the dollar completely. This administration's capable of that but I doubt they go that route. Eventually they have to let it crash so we can grow organically again from correct valuations. It's going to be almost identical to 2008-2010. 3 years or borderline depression 10-12% unemployment, homes crash 55-60%.
1😊
Florida a big crash is coming!!
Homes are still overpriced.