The polls said Bill Shorten would win in 2019, so can we trust them now? | ABC News
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- Опубліковано 21 вер 2024
- Most people were taken by surprise at the outcome of the 2019 election. How far off were the polls, and should we expect them to be any more accurate this time? Subscribe: bit.ly/3NOcSGI Read more here: ab.co/3LWvP8v
A look at the findings of the review commissioned by pollsters after 2019, the changes that have been made since then, and whether we should have any faith in them this time. What’s the margin of error and how accurate is a poll? Casey Briggs takes a look.
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People are sick of the lies, the corruption and the lack of common decency in the LNP. This time they must go. I love this country and I cannot bear the thought of another term of this disgusting government.
But Albo and his extreme left team will absolutely destroy the nation.
@@presidentxijinpingspoxdoct9756 they'll destroy your mum
@@presidentxijinpingspoxdoct9756 but that is an 'if' statement. With respect you can make any prediction but it does not make it necessarily true. In fact even prior to Covid if you look at the National Economic Graphs are national debt has skyrocketed under the Liberals and total productivity has plummeted to the point of us being 34/35 OECD countries. I can send links if you want proof but I doubt you will believe them anyway.
@@presidentxijinpingspoxdoct9756 Ok, I was going to reply somewhat differently but I just think that might be sarcasm...
i think the video is about the nature of polling rather than the dogmatic views of the punters
Scomo is so embarrassing.
I agree but not just based on some rusted on voting pattern. Through research of all parties I have compiled over sixty pages of proven lies that Scomo has made. They are backed by multiple sources including actual visual footage. The nature of what he lies about is important too as they are no minor issues. To quote someone within his own party he will do anything to stay in power. He is a dangerous man who's extreme religious views, which is why he doesn't talk about them, could potentially damage this country to a state of disrepair that will take generations to overcome. Nearing a trillion dollar debt., productivity withered to an all time low, first home buyers (well no chance of them ever existing soon), age care at it's lowest ebb (not due to staff but lack of proper funding), and I could go on and on. People will still vote for Scomo though. Mostly the wealthy, ignorant or yes I will take the money and stuff the consequences folk. It's a very scary time and time people stopped going on about Labor (federally they have not been in power for over 9 years). The mess we are in is primarily a result of global conditions and the Federal Liberal Party.
If South Australia's state election is any indicator, the polls are pretty spot on this year
Don't forget WA's!
SA always votes for Labor and has no population it has a hundred thousand kangaroos for every human being.
@@Murrangurk2 WA will vote for Coalition in the federal election it always does. WA is a strange bunch, South Australia that's a clown state with a permanent ALP 🤡
State doesn’t translate to federal, they’ll learn that
So true.
One issue is the amount of time the pollers want. Sorry, don't have an hour for a poller, especially when I can not be sure its not some dodgy scam or fringe political party fishing for personal info.
The polls will narrow during the actual election, particularly in regional seats so its important that anyone on the fence know who they are voting for. And I desperately hope they vote Labor, or at least not LNP and Nats.
I love how the polling companies all try to act as if it was regular people who were in the wrong for placing so much emphasis & trust in the polls. The polling companies were all too happy to be treated like Oracles when they were riding high, never really offering cautions about the limitations of polls or why we shouldn't place an excessive amount of trust in them.
Yeah this is literally them saying oh you guys are idiots for trusting us.
How does that make them look?
They say this all the time, its the newspaper headlines that we read and then assume everything from that, without looking further. It is our fault, all stats have margins of errors. Don't people read journals?
The irony is golden, Belief in miracles seems to be his biggest problem
Scomo's approach is a combination of "Jesus take the wheel" and "corruption is ok if I ask for forgiveness later"
It's so sad seeing that we could have had a prime Minister who wouldn't have been so awful back those years ago
The ALP victory is about as certain as gravity... The LNP might have fewer seats than the green this year.
I hope so mate
Im 52 and ive never once been polled so i dont know who the hell they are asking ,pools are rubbish mostly.
I'm the same I always see these poles on TV for all sorts of things and I think we'll no one ever asked me . usually the only thing people get to have an opinion on is a reality TV show
Yeh niether I,I wonder if they actually do poll or just make it up
Back when i had a landline, I'd been polled a few times.
We've had 2 calls in the last few days
i love pools though.. Polls on the other hand not so much.
The Australian women’s cricket team expected to win in 2017 but lost. However, they came back and anniolated their opposition. Hope the same thing happens at this election.
Gay
@@petecotter6790 Yes Gaytime ice creams were very popular 40 years ago. Have a Gay Time was the ad.
Even Murdoch's given up on them,sky news still clinging onto to some hope and doing their best.take away that and Labor would have won in 2019
The problem is certainly an issue with both the gross, or primary poll and with the TPP (Two party preferred poll). Underlying this, however, is a greater problem: the assumption of swing across seats which is always quite wrong on polling day (even in landslides). Instead, analyses of voters in marginal seats (less than 3% or less than 5% are common benchmarks). These polls are far more reliable in predicting outcomes because big swings in safe seats for either party do not deliver government in Australia, where the two parties tend to be close in terms of primary and TPP votes. Yes, this is far more expensive and more difficult (albeit interesting) to analyse but elections are always, always, always won at the margins.
I wonder what would happen to the world if no polls existed, and we all found out only on the day.
I really hope that in the coming years, the 2 party system is done with.
What? We already have a system that includes multiple parties and independents. The current government is already made up of two parties….. what are you suggesting that we replace this system with? I’m not sure you quite understand how our government works 🤨
i reckon just permanently have labour running the country, state and federal govts.
who is going to change the system when the average 40 year old is much more interested in wearing Spider-Man costumes to get likes on Facebook and not actually being educated to be community leaders there is simply no one to step up and replace them because they're too busy acting like children
@@tjmarx yeah get back to me when you're going to write a comment speaking clear English instead of this university I'm going to write an essay so I sound important crap. you've just proved my point lots of front but no content that is what the young people are about these days and there is absolutely no way they can become credible politicians. as for scrutiny it is the same as it's always been if not worse now
@@tjmarx don't flatter yourself it's not all about you I simply said what you are doing is exactly what the young people are doing just spraying out verbal diarrhoea with no actual content goodbye
Has any one on here ever been asked to do a poll??? I don't know anyone. Who are they polling?
Well this time you have all these Scomo failures and silly lies like he hasn’t been to a hillsong church in 15 years against him, while he was less known for gags like that 3 years ago. Also a bunch of liberals leaving the party with good bye reveal of character doesn’t bode well. While Albo has been OK. Biggest controversy is him losing weight. Compared to shorten who was using too much smug language and his big end of town catch phrase probably hurt him too much. Right now as things are, my money is on Albo being our prime minister.
There was so much dirt past and present on him during the last election too and he still won the "unwinnable" election sadly.
It's wrong - the Libs are going to get thumped.
The LNP will require to form Government with a minor party. Labor will not win this election the Leader has no vision and Carisma which is important to the general public.
How does Albo have "no vision and Carisma"? Because the media says so? Are you implying scomo and the rest of the LNP have any of that?
@@EggAndChocolate Sorry to offend you, were is Labor's party vision to make Australia a Leading nation in Technonlgy, besides spouting NBN that has cost the tax payers over run in the Billions, and forcing everybody to use NBN. That is not Long term visionat least Labor started the Space program which Australia will benift from Long term. The only person that Labor had as a leader that stands out was Bob Hawk.
What do we need polls for anyway? I'd like to see them done away with. Let the count be a surprise on election day. It might invigorate everybody.
How would you do that? The polls are not the vote, even the bookies get it wrong.
The undicided will always go with the current government . Sorry Albo . You have been very quiet for 3 years .
MSM is the issue in Australia
Well if you go into specific suburbs or idk universities over a rural town the polls will be as accurate as the weather forecast these days on the east
I wouldn't trust the polls today either...
The polls aren't savage enough this time 😂
At the present Labor and Liberal are both running equal last. Labor have become "closet" liberals
How's the sound in that echo chamber?
if the pollster give me a call I'll say the opposite 😉
Polls are a waste of money
I dont want either of them in.....
Only one poll that counts - all the others are a waste of time
Why not allow comments on the current opinions ? I want to see Morrison patting Turnball on the back saying he has is back .
Only of Anthony takes into account the UAP vote this time, which IMHO be bigger in 2022.
Pollsters who use Robocalls can bugger off.
Some surveys aren't just transparent enough
Yes you can trust them
I really don't like how the LNP tries to win people with $250 one off cash payment. Transport, living costs and housing price are big problems nowadays
Bill Shorten buggered it up.
move on with your life
the liberals got scared and started being friendly to the Queensland bogans who got them across the line
Lucky he had the media behind him all the way or he wouldn't have gotten with the single seat,I'm sure Rupert Murdoch will get behind him once again
Yes to @AlboPM
One clown goes another clown replaces him . Who cares about polls 🤡
What is the point of the polls, betting odds?
Polls lol, i always lie when asked, why should you tell them.
because what is the point of lying? they're just people trying to get a clear picture
Well I still have my suspicion of Biden an Trump.
The poll questions are rediculous. Yes or No q's without qualifiers. Anything else goes to undecided.
Like Q) Do you support bla bla. A) Maybe, if x problem is addressed in advance.
Answering prefer to vote for Neither (party) put me in "undecided" or forced to choose a party.
You have to show ID to go to the bottle shop but not for voting hmmm why not.
Try not to have a question in the title that you don't answer. The actual analysis in this video could have been shown in 20s and it makes no inference on the reliability of polling for this cycle.
interesting way of putting it
@@garyp4374 Mate. If you want to argue about plain English. Perhaps you try some grammar so someone could understand your ramblings.
@@garyp4374 the word inference is taught in high school science, what are you talking about?
I have never met a person that’s been polled, they must do their polls in labour heartland.
We Agree "Labor's lack of an economic plan" Only Spend Money rather than PLAN for Benefit and Security for our Country
Peter do you honestly think the liberals are better economic managers than Labor or are you just repeating what the liberal campaigns say? do you know who sold the port of Darwin? do you know how the liberals actually legislate around sovereignty?
So maybe the polls always over-represented educated people, but these were fairly balanced - educated people are richer (rich people vote more Liberal) but younger (younger people vote less Lib)
But last election ALP picked up more educated and poll-answering people while Libs got larger numbers of working class non-respondents, winning a majority the polls didn't see coming.
What does it even matter whether polling is accurate or not? Who cares? The vote is going to go whatever way the vote is going to go. Only politicians should care about the polls.
Democracy died a long time ago. We live in a capitalist dystopia, in which our democracy has been captured by big business, and we have lost control of climate change.
Estimate or Guesstimate , Casey ?
Gallop outa here !!!!
I should have placed a bet in 2019 that the LNP was going to win.
Ok Rupert
Should have, but didn't.
@@russe19642 Lol, I love how you instantly assume that because I tipped the LNP to win that you automatically assign me as a supporter.
When they ring me to ask my preferences, I lie deliberately. I change gender, age, affiliation and income on a whim. I dislike being rung, and so I make them pay in the most extreme way I can.
Labor, Liberals, Nationals and Greens out with the trash this election. Vote Minor Parties only. To hell with the big 4 and the abuse they have dealt out for the last two years.
It doesnt matter who's the Prime Autobot of the country, Australia is done, put a fork in it.
We'll sure as shit stand no chance if everyone takes on your attitude.
Seems we've lost our trademark "laid back" attitude towards things recently, can't even get a simple 'hello' back from your neighbours.
Great attitude there buddy. What exactly constitutes “done” in your books? If we all had approaches to governance like yours we might just end up that way 🙄
@@NebraskaGonvilleJones oh damn, wouldn't you like to know.
Follow the legal pages for family court, division of assets, parental alienation...I could go on and on but you have to see it for yourself. I follow all the legal cases going on.
Medical system? Don't even get me started. What medical system? It's turning into an American system of private insurance and user pays medical.
All western nations are cannibalising themselves. It's pretty much all there in the ABS data. (For aus)
you just stick to importing people from Asia mate we don't really need your opinion
More like you backed the wrong horse last election and have a bad case of the sads from reality of what they're actually really like
If AEC did it’s job labor would have gotten in
I’m mad as hell
All your choices are shenanigans
Abc Australia needs to give the peoples tax money back
AUSTRALIA GDP REDUCED FROM A PEAK OF 1.6 TRILLION TO 1.3 TRILLION AFTER CHINESE BOYCOTT
If you look at GDP you can see when the LNP came into power because it flatline s
Not sure about the polls this time. Thankfully they were wrong last time. A Labor win in May is a scary thought.
Hopefully the polls are wrong again this year. A labor government would be terrible.
The LNP gov has ruined this country in untold ways for many years to come
BOOOOOMMMMERRRRR
@@VladaldTrumptin By giving us the worlds fastest economic recovery from covid and record low unemployment? I think they’ve improved this country for years to come.
Paid comment.
@@billbaggins1688 So do you think that the 6 million votes that the coalition got in the last election were ‘paid votes’? You need to come out of your echo chamber.
Australia dodged a bullet...last time.
We need to remember Albanese is from the hard left wing of Labor.
We just can't trust Labor & Albanese with the economy.... security... and so many other issues.
We dodged a bullet and slipped down the poo shoot with the liberals
Do you pay any attention to politics? Such as the LNP debt?
@@j-mshistorycorner6932 Do you pay any attention to the real world?
Such as the COVID Pandemic of 2020 and 2021... Continuous State Labor government lockdowns...
Shut down of the economy... mental health issues?
Don't be a clown.
@@Matty-sz5mz *Facepalm* No.
How's the sound in that echo chamber? Nice and loud?
A vote for the ALP (Labor), LNP or Greens will see Australia descend even further into the political quagmire of lies, deception and hypocrisy.
VOTE 1 - One Nation for truth, honesty and a return to Australian values.
Australian values like the White Australia Policy
@@sophitsa79 Whilst Immigration minister under PM Ben Chifley (ALP), Arthur Caldwell was the architect of the White Australia Policy. After the change of government, PM Robert Menzies (Lib) abandoned the policy and it has not been reserected since. Any notion that it would be is in error.
Haaaaaaaaaahahaaha. What a laugh!
Good thing One Nation is way down there in votes. Even those who vote One Nation do not preference the Libs 100:0.
Australian values, like speeding fines and glassing innocent people ar the pub
Team scott morrison!👊👊👊🎉🎉🎉
Scomo is a joke but I doubt labor can do any better, Australia is screwed
mate have a read of the labor national platform, there's some good stuff in there
@@fabianstickel1801 agreed!
every time labor get in they try and do great things but rupert murdoch and the gang destroy them in the press and all the paper buyers and crap msm watchers lap it up most of australia is f cking brainwashed by these c nts !!!!!
So says a lifelong liberal
SCO MO will win, the reason why is interest rates everyone knows that Labor will mismanage the economy, for people living in Sydney and Melbourne Albo would be your worst nightmare.
Just ask Mark Latham his former boss.
In the federal election WA NSW Qld Tas will vote for Coalition.
SA Victoria Act and the NT will back Labor.
Last time labor managed the economy it was one the best in the world so might want to get your facts straight bud
Keep drinking the cool aid
LABOUR FULL OF Chinese spies
No one “knows” that. Only if they’re all about the MSM
Forget opinion polls or elections, Samuel Jesse has clearly worked it all out...