The key takeaway is that sometimes you keep a secret to not let your adversaries know it can be done, this is pretty common in business actually, being a pioneer costs much more than just developing something. Being a pioneer means you spend massive r&d to make as many mistakes as you can to do one right and get out the gate first, if you announce everything you are doing, your competition can just sit back and eat popcorn until you hit the right nail and then pounce on you. Just the information that something can be done, like a nuclear bomb, is massively valuable, as was the fact that you can actually make a working pair of vr goggles that don't suck.
@@tommy-er6hhThat's not words that have different meanings, that's reading error. Happens to me too, so I'm not saying you can't read or anything of the sort 😂
This is very much true. Especially in the current world state. But the ultimate culprits here are 1) China/India, and 2) Bad economic policy. If you have a other countries that don't play by the rules, you automatically have the copycat game ready to jump on board at any time. Plus if the economy is shit, innovative products aren't even worth throwing money at because no one is willing to risk their reserve capital on trying risky things. This has been the state of the world over the last 5 years. I would say your points along with these paint a fuller picture.
@@jascrandom9855 he's quoting the movie independence day, the route means they spent the money but hiding where said money is spent, like area 51 in the movie
It funny when even ex military start going off the deep end about fantasy weapons. It's almost like the government has almost a complete control on what they tell their soldiers.
You're right. People still believe a car would protect them from a handgun. They'll run behind concrete thinking it'll protect them from the latest weaponry firing specialized bullets the size of their forearm lmao
The “Secret” weapons are honestly what you’d expect them to be in regard to being focused on intelligence which is the silent war that has always been waged in parallel to the fighting.
Not always. Something I'm surprised wasn't mentioned in this video: the United States has fallen behind everyone else in long range air-to-air missiles, despite dominating BVR being America's main doctrine to this day. To not just solve the issue but outright gap everyone again the USN decided to strap four SM-3's to F-18's. You know, the super heavy hyper long range anti-aircraft, and anti-missile, and anti-ship missile? Yea, the F-18 can air launch them now, and we've supposedly been setup to do so for more than 6 years, before the Meteor entered service, which means America never did loose the range advantage after all. It was kept secret for 6 admitted until someone leaked a picture of one, and even now we haven't officially admitted to using them like this. Hell, half of the air frames we have on our carriers right now are drones that we've not admitted exist.
@@ASDeckardusually we let russia and china show off and get all the media attention with their fancy shiny new parade objects, while we allow them to give away their element of surprise, and then just silently develop a better equivalent of what they conveniently show us that they have😂 either that or just straight up don't tell anyone what we are building and then they find themselves in a terrible position when an actual war starts, unlike a certain dictator obsessed with bragging about his new "invincible weapons"
Deterennce doesn't happen in a vacuum, you show of the stuff you want them to know you have, and you keep your fancy stuff hidden until it's time for it to be used in secret, or until you need a show of force and to show the world what you've got.
An interesting thesis I hadn’t really considered. My only addition is that, for the most part, a secret weapon can only be used once. Then it’s just a weapon.
It's a hell of a lot easier to keep the true specs and capabilities of a weapon system under wraps than the existence of the weapon system itself. Obviously that's not gonna work with something like the SR-71 or the B-2 where anyone turning a wrench on them would know they were dealing with something new and different, but for example: Many missile systems everyone knows about still have some classified specs. The best the general public has are educated guesses, and when they're your missiles, it's pretty easy to publish "rough numbers" that hide true capabilities..
I remember a very frustrated congressman in the mid 1980s who showed up to a meeting with a DOD about the Stealth bomber program. He was carrying a toy model of the bomber that his 15-yo son had supplied to him and wanted to know how Mattel had gotten the basic details of the bomber’s construction when he couldn’t get them from the DOD for budgeting purposes. 😂
One overlooked thing is that you'd have to keep easily thousands or tens of thousands of factory workers silent. The more people are involving in manufacturing secret weapons, the more likely someone is going to leak the existence of the weapon, especially for the final assembly, where you have the least ability to conduct compartmentalization.
Not really becuase there are ways around this such as the manhattan project, they had different teams build different parts of the device all over the country to minimize eyes on the actual project, only those Los Alamos knew fully about what was being done, well i say those only the scientist and military personel qualified to know. Civis and low ranking troops had no idea until the cat was out the bag. Further more there is UK as a great example when building the mulberry docks for the D-Day invasions. Civilians were used all around the country to build the concrete phoenixes for the outer barriers, the workers were not told what they were for only that it was for the war effort to avoid enemy spies from getting information from the civilians. However the Allies also had a secondary espionage operation to counter any information that was leaked.
"Doctor Strangelove or how I learned to love the bomb" makes a good point. What's a Doomsday Device good for if the other side doesn't know you have one?
I think you’re spot on for deterrence being the main goal for weapon. I’d say the opposite incentive structure is true for defensive weapons, spy craft and specific capabilities of known weapons (such as the F-22ms flight ceiling). So I’d expect there to be plenty of secret R&D projects, intelligence assets, and the true capabilities of defensive weapons.
I'd argue that deterrents are even more beneficial than 'secret weapons', an adversarial nation isn't going to dare attack you if you've got nuclear weapons and you let other countries know about it.
It took 10 years for the US GOV to admit the existence of the F-117 Nighthawk in 1990. F-22 Raptor is 30 years old. Imagine what they have been developing in Dugway, Utah.
Secret weapons make sense if you consider the dreadnaught effect. It's probably more about the capabilities of "known" weapons that are in development than keeping the existence of the weapon in general a secret.
Offering real specifications on planes tanks and weapons is a bad idea because potential opponents can build hard counters. The Americans spent decades under reporting what their systems can do. The Soviets spent decades over reporting on their platforms.
biggest example of this period was the F-117, a plane which defeated every single air defense of the time. It was kept secret until the cold war ended. The US could have flown planes over Moscow, and they wouldn't have known until things hit the ground. An immensely powerful thing, kept secret. The way I see it, weapons to make war painful are made public. Weapons to make war swift are kept secret
superpower or near superpower nations are always developing weapons "in secret" but as soon as the program completes or sometimes fails, they will be immediately revealed to the public for purposes of deterrence
8:45 love the nod to Theodore Roosevelt's quote: "Speak softly but carry a big stick", a matter of descalation without subservience, gratuity or tribute, while maintaining a strong deterrence that consequences are guaranteed if you tread on me. Can't exactly hide a big whooping Stick, but you can speak in a manner to assure the other party they won't get the stick if they behave themselves properly. Speaking of don't tread on me, the rattlesnake is a great example in nature of bonified deterrence. Leave the snake alone it won't bother you, annoy it, and you can taste the danger in the air as the tail rattles, tread on the snake, be prepared to be bitten. Ofc in reality we just carry a bigger stick or shovel and smack the thing, sorta a uno reverse card, well, if your lucky and know what your doing. I Do Not encourage any to handle or hit any dangerous creatures unless it's absolutely necessary, and it's better to call animal control/professionals. Snake pulls out it's stick, your stick is bigger, snake calls PETA, snake has the bigger stick now....whole deck of uno reverse cards.
To be a deterrent you only have to be equal or one step ahead. If you was 5 steps ahead why would you share that and encourage/pressure your enemies to try and copy or catch up.
It seems to me that developing a weapons program, making it successful and then keeping it secret undermines the point of staying on the cutting edge of weapons technology; the whole point is to create weapons that are so frightening that the enemy isn't willing to come out to play at all. You win by default and expend no excess resources. If the opponent doesn't know it exists, as a deterrent it stops working. Edit: Lol or wait until 7:20 and Simon gets there.
But why spoil secrets when you already have all the deterrent (nukes) you could dream of? A public 6th gen doesn't change the equation. If nukes don't deter you, then the 6th gen will at least make short process with your stupidity.
This video is a good start. But what about laser pistols, death stars or at least Imperial Star Destroyers? Fighters that could do both fly in atmosphere AND outer space aka X Wing or Tie fighters?
IMO there are basically only two major rationales / conditions that favour keeping secret weapons. Firstly, during an active conflict, where one side is developing / keeping a new capability that they plan to only use at the most opportune time; e.g. Ukraine. The second is when you are the hegemon. Military weapons is literally an arms race where a new capability causes one's adversaries to develop countermeasures and/or equivalence that then prompt you to develop something new to counter it to keep your edge, which gets expensive fast. As the hegemon, keeping your bleeding edge capabilities secret limits this progression, in turn saving you $$$ over time.
Secret weapons are like high scores. You know what I have because you can see my high score. Eventually, you beat my high score, but I then release a new high score almost immediately. You eventually beat my new high score, but again, almost immediately, I released another new high score. As long as my high score beats yours, I'm happy. You don't get to know my highest score.
The US had F117's in 1984. We'd have never launched a first strike as depicted in 'The Day After'... it would have been a T-72 and T-80 turrent toss in the Fulda Gap. USSR would have lost bad.
That 6th gen PLAF stealth plane reveal must be too advanced to glean secrets on since they very clearly showed its profile and rear aspect. Definitely not propaganda at all.
This is what I came to say. The private military industrial complex are the ones who would want to keep secrets, and that's really for development purposes, not maintaining arms stockpiles.
You need a mixture of the 2. When researching and developing you need to keep them secret until last minute as to not give the enemy time to react and develop the same or counters to what you are building. While there is merit in publically showing what you have for deterrance it dosnt mean you should show everything. For example a cruise missile that is hypersonic, it may not be a game changer in the sense it would stop a war but it can be a game changer in certain pivital battles. So in this essense a secret is better becuase you get to give the enemy a surprise. Ig a nation can both publically show weapons as deterrance and be known for bringing top secret weapons to battle should it ever come you will have a reputation for being able to have great weapons when times of war appears. If that make sense so the idea of secrecy can also be a deterrant in that aspect... what is my enemy hiding? Its the fear of the unknown which can be the deterrant. But like a few people have said already overall the biggest secrets are the true capabilities of weapons. The west tends to understate statistics while the east especially russia has always overbloated, for example claiming that the t90m has reverse gears to reverse faster when we saw ample examples in ukraine which did not have such features and many turned around with tails between their legs.
In general, yes. But I think it merits to add the category of weapons kept secret because announcing one has them might turn the international community or even hesitant potential enemies against one. Think of biological or chemical weapons i.e.. At most you might advertise THAT you have them and suggest a few tamer variants, but I could easily see a world where nations like North Korea might have some truly terrifying stuff locked up in a labratory to use as an actual last resort or publicise as a deterrent once the situation has already become untennable.
Most are going to be known - but it’s very different to have people aware, vs. to queue people into the specifications at the beginning of dev and allow others to prepare. Superior Weapons have a limited time frame of superiority. So you keep the details secret to prolong that period.
Can we please see some historical battles soon? Like ; Battle of Britain 🇬🇧 Korean war 🇰🇵 🇰🇷 Battle of Midway 🇺🇸 Attack on Pearl Harbour 🇺🇸 Battle of Waterloo 🇫🇷 🇧🇪 Battle of Thermopolae etc 🇬🇷
Secret weapons make sense during a long devopment cycle. A weapon in devopment has o deterrent value. Conversely nobody develops a counter to something they don't know ow exists. The F117 is the perfect example. Nobody was ready for stealth because they thought it was impossible. The moment it was ready, and had deterrent value, it stopped being a secret, but by keeping the devopment secret it denied the opponent a chance to develop a counter.
The way I have always thought about it is the weapons we know about are a step behind the secret weapons we actually have. However, that doesn’t make sense if our adversaries are doing the same thing.
As a counterpoint, leading up to (and during) WWII poland did have super secret anti tank guns that worked against nazi tanks (of the early war). To keep said guns effective it was crucial that the builder of tanks in reich werent aware of them, as quiet achieveable increases in armour would have rendered them ineffective. As such soldiers never seen said guns till the start of the war.
in a world of deterrence, you kinda have to have a high military defense budget. a secretive budget spent anonymously. does lead to a lot of possible misuse but inevitable, i think. and let's just hope the citizens at the time support the budget, a lack of support, and you can pretty much kiss deterrence goodbye
He brings up the best reason to actually work on secret weapons (for certain countries like USA and China) they are Deterrents when the threat of a secret weapon is credible. And the best way to make a threat credible is to actually do the thing you’re threatening.
There are secret weapons that have to remain secret due to international agreements. For instance nuclear powered weaponized space assets. Knowing that these exist and where they exist means they can be targeted or that allied countries can petition for their removal
The existence of super weapons is super fantasy. But in fact, the real "secret weapons" are the lack of transparency on things like radar/missile range and targetting technology.
We live in a circumstantial world so deterrance and secret weapons both exist it is a delicate balance. It is foolish to think it is just one way. There is even a third option and it is called the bluff
Developing secret weapons is a deterrence of a different sort. The R&D effort that is concealed may keep an opponent from pursuing the same technology.
The point about engagement reminds me of when people pretended to be scared of AI or more recently when people pretended to be surprised by the Honey scam. Sometimes people collectively play dumb because it's fun.
I'm still scared of AI and that won't be changing. Rogue AI in cyberpunk is seeming increasingly likely since everyone wants to throw AI in household robots and appliances for some fing reason. Combine that with the internet and to me it just doesn't look good.
@@Ballistics_Computer Well you don’t need to be. The AI that we have is nowhere near the capacity needed to do whatever happens in Cyberpunk and other movies and games e.t.c.
You don't necessarily keep the weapon secret, but you do keep some of its capabilities secret. First of all, you want to deter someone attacking you in the first place, so show them the fancy toys. But secondly, you don't want them to know how to counter that weapon.
I mean, when the conflict is already ongoing, nukes as a deterrence are useless, because what hey might be supposed to deter from happening, as already happening. So in that case, they actually were more useful as a secret weapon
@1:02 Writing my thoughts on this topic before continuing on with the video... Big-stick diplomacy ("Carry a big stick but speak softly") of Theodore Roosevelt will prime the argument that force projection is more important as fear is a greater deterrent to conflict than diplomacy. In this vein, if we take the Manhattan project as the only real example of military necessity forcing a nation to brute force themselves out of a corner then we will be right in our thinking that weapons and all military progress has been on demand. However, from the experience of the cold war we have learned that arms races ensue from such displays of force. Along with the reflexive development of defences to counteract such asymmetries of technological advances that an enemy might momentarily possess. Which could have lead to the revision of such exhibitionist military posturing. Alternatively, given the bureaucratic maze and rigmarole of getting public funding for anything in the western nations it is going to be immensely difficult to allocate the substantial sums to fund any grand project through the public sector and manage to successfully keep it “secret”. So basically I have no idea. Let's see what these big brains have to say...
This is why I watch, my knowledge is full of holes. Whilst many key words of my episode bingo card were filled I missed a whole generation of military history and strategy. But I'm merely a millennial neuroscientist and crypto bro with too much time on their hands. Bravo Warfronts, Bravo
The COST of developing and manufacturing a new weapon is TREMENDOUS, so the production of a secret weapon is VERY DIFFICULT. Sure, there have been a few: nuclear bomb and SR-71, but even they were not secret for long.
"🤷 maybe, but not as much as you think." I love your show, and I agree with your conclusions here, but I also want to point out that there is a value in uncertainty. Not enough to justify a massive expenditure on a "secret weapon", but enough to make keeping certain developments secret for at least a period of time. What those developments are, however? Beats the hell out of me.
So couple issues RQ-180 - this has been 100% confirmed by the air force back in 2024 when Lt. gen Bob Otto specifically mentioned it at a event in virgina saying that the RQ-180 would "give the pentagon better access to contested airspace" SR-72 - I think this one is pretty much confirmed as well. Theirs 2014 contracts with NASA and Lockheed Martin. LH yearly has small little updates on it. Heck they even said theyd have a flying prototype this year and they are wanting to include thr newer hypersonic missle payloads with the sr72. The plane in top gun looks like the sr72 because top gun was able to enlist Skunkworks from LH to help design the darkstar
This video truly challenges the myth of "secret weapons." While the allure of undisclosed superweapons is undeniable, the reality is more complex. Modern warfare thrives on deterrence, not surprise strikes. The true value of a weapon lies in the enemy knowing it exists, not in keeping it hidden. What are your thoughts? Do secret weapons actually matter in today’s military strategies, or is deterrence the real game-changer?
I believe it was HLC that was saying that the US military doesn’t even show a weapon till it’s been ready and they’ve been working on the next advancement because they know once it’s out there other countries are already working on imitation and countering. So yes some is deterrent but also some is for sure top secret
The key takeaway is that sometimes you keep a secret to not let your adversaries know it can be done, this is pretty common in business actually, being a pioneer costs much more than just developing something. Being a pioneer means you spend massive r&d to make as many mistakes as you can to do one right and get out the gate first, if you announce everything you are doing, your competition can just sit back and eat popcorn until you hit the right nail and then pounce on you. Just the information that something can be done, like a nuclear bomb, is massively valuable, as was the fact that you can actually make a working pair of vr goggles that don't suck.
i read pioneer and i thought combat engineer. Dang english with its multi use words!
@@tommy-er6hhThat's not words that have different meanings, that's reading error.
Happens to me too, so I'm not saying you can't read or anything of the sort 😂
Elon musk did this, his company looked at all the R&D from NASA and the Russians to save the R&D costs for stuff that didn't work.
That explains China flying all those drones over the East Coast of America.
This is very much true. Especially in the current world state. But the ultimate culprits here are 1) China/India, and 2) Bad economic policy. If you have a other countries that don't play by the rules, you automatically have the copycat game ready to jump on board at any time. Plus if the economy is shit, innovative products aren't even worth throwing money at because no one is willing to risk their reserve capital on trying risky things. This has been the state of the world over the last 5 years. I would say your points along with these paint a fuller picture.
"You don't think they really spend $20,000 on a hammer, $40,000 on a toilet seat do you?"
Thats called Embezzlement
your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could that they didn't stop to think if they should.
Mr. President. That's not entirely accurate.
@@jascrandom9855 he's quoting the movie independence day, the route means they spent the money but hiding where said money is spent, like area 51 in the movie
Peaceeeee.... Noo peaceeee...
The biggest secrets aren’t the weapons they don’t show but what current weapons can actually do.
Lol the unclassified specs might as well be forgotten
It funny when even ex military start going off the deep end about fantasy weapons. It's almost like the government has almost a complete control on what they tell their soldiers.
That's true for western nations, no doubt. And it's for our own safety!
@@perfectstranger1152nah just wait a few months and warthunder will have another leak
You're right. People still believe a car would protect them from a handgun.
They'll run behind concrete thinking it'll protect them from the latest weaponry firing specialized bullets the size of their forearm lmao
The “Secret” weapons are honestly what you’d expect them to be in regard to being focused on intelligence which is the silent war that has always been waged in parallel to the fighting.
Yeah like being used on its own citizens....
Not always. Something I'm surprised wasn't mentioned in this video: the United States has fallen behind everyone else in long range air-to-air missiles, despite dominating BVR being America's main doctrine to this day. To not just solve the issue but outright gap everyone again the USN decided to strap four SM-3's to F-18's. You know, the super heavy hyper long range anti-aircraft, and anti-missile, and anti-ship missile? Yea, the F-18 can air launch them now, and we've supposedly been setup to do so for more than 6 years, before the Meteor entered service, which means America never did loose the range advantage after all. It was kept secret for 6 admitted until someone leaked a picture of one, and even now we haven't officially admitted to using them like this.
Hell, half of the air frames we have on our carriers right now are drones that we've not admitted exist.
@@ASDeckardusually we let russia and china show off and get all the media attention with their fancy shiny new parade objects, while we allow them to give away their element of surprise, and then just silently develop a better equivalent of what they conveniently show us that they have😂 either that or just straight up don't tell anyone what we are building and then they find themselves in a terrible position when an actual war starts, unlike a certain dictator obsessed with bragging about his new "invincible weapons"
IM A simple man, i see Simons bald head in my feed, i open the video.
a shining beacon of knowledge
@@ADAMAT1C 😂😂
Same brother! It's like a beacon shining brightly when you need something to watch.
lucky for him he looks great with it. id certainly buy it being a choice.
fact boy
fact boy
fact boy
Deterennce doesn't happen in a vacuum, you show of the stuff you want them to know you have, and you keep your fancy stuff hidden until it's time for it to be used in secret, or until you need a show of force and to show the world what you've got.
Exactly. The potential of a secret weapon is the best deterrence
"The fox has many tricks- the hedgehog has one good one."
-Archilocus
and yet foxes learned to counter the one good trick. Roll the hedgehog into water, and it'll open up
Sonic would disagree 😂
It makes me laugh whenever I see Corridor Digital's robot skit show up as footage of "Militarized Robots".
I know right?!
An interesting thesis I hadn’t really considered. My only addition is that, for the most part, a secret weapon can only be used once. Then it’s just a weapon.
Like those mossad pager
It's a hell of a lot easier to keep the true specs and capabilities of a weapon system under wraps than the existence of the weapon system itself. Obviously that's not gonna work with something like the SR-71 or the B-2 where anyone turning a wrench on them would know they were dealing with something new and different, but for example: Many missile systems everyone knows about still have some classified specs. The best the general public has are educated guesses, and when they're your missiles, it's pretty easy to publish "rough numbers" that hide true capabilities..
"Appear strong when you are weak; appear weak when you are strong"
I remember a very frustrated congressman in the mid 1980s who showed up to a meeting with a DOD about the Stealth bomber program. He was carrying a toy model of the bomber that his 15-yo son had supplied to him and wanted to know how Mattel had gotten the basic details of the bomber’s construction when he couldn’t get them from the DOD for budgeting purposes. 😂
Lord have mercy, last time I was this early, I had my first child 9 months later.
🤨
I love the comedy in the comment sections of Simon’s videos as much as the videos but this has to be the best one I’ve seen in a long while 😂😂
Being early always comes with surprise gifts.
🎉
LMAO. Kudos!
One overlooked thing is that you'd have to keep easily thousands or tens of thousands of factory workers silent. The more people are involving in manufacturing secret weapons, the more likely someone is going to leak the existence of the weapon, especially for the final assembly, where you have the least ability to conduct compartmentalization.
The Manhattan project.
The manhattan project.
Those ppl assemble 1 component out of 10,000, they don’t know the full extent of what they’re making
Not really becuase there are ways around this such as the manhattan project, they had different teams build different parts of the device all over the country to minimize eyes on the actual project, only those Los Alamos knew fully about what was being done, well i say those only the scientist and military personel qualified to know. Civis and low ranking troops had no idea until the cat was out the bag.
Further more there is UK as a great example when building the mulberry docks for the D-Day invasions. Civilians were used all around the country to build the concrete phoenixes for the outer barriers, the workers were not told what they were for only that it was for the war effort to avoid enemy spies from getting information from the civilians. However the Allies also had a secondary espionage operation to counter any information that was leaked.
Compartmentalised design & production.
"Doctor Strangelove or how I learned to love the bomb" makes a good point.
What's a Doomsday Device good for if the other side doesn't know you have one?
I am watching right now and I'm wondering why the writers didn't reference this quotation.
00:24 Did you use a parody video of a robot from Corridor Crew to ilustrate A.I.?
That's funny...
I noticed that too lmao
He wouldn’t be the first to fall for it.
Yeah, great video. Funny hed use it as an example.
I think you’re spot on for deterrence being the main goal for weapon. I’d say the opposite incentive structure is true for defensive weapons, spy craft and specific capabilities of known weapons (such as the F-22ms flight ceiling).
So I’d expect there to be plenty of secret R&D projects, intelligence assets, and the true capabilities of defensive weapons.
The biggest guns in this video are the arm cannons Simon brought out, my boy is getting jacked! 🏋
last time I was this early, greek fire was the most secret weapon
I'd argue that deterrents are even more beneficial than 'secret weapons', an adversarial nation isn't going to dare attack you if you've got nuclear weapons and you let other countries know about it.
It took 10 years for the US GOV to admit the existence of the F-117 Nighthawk in 1990. F-22 Raptor is 30 years old. Imagine what they have been developing in Dugway, Utah.
It may be possible to keep it secret when in the early stages. Once major production has begun, it becomes far more difficult.
Secret weapons make sense if you consider the dreadnaught effect.
It's probably more about the capabilities of "known" weapons that are in development than keeping the existence of the weapon in general a secret.
I'm still laughing about what a joke the Russian army turned out to be lol. And I am Russian myself😂
@boota1979 They have less land now than in 2022😅
Offering real specifications on planes tanks and weapons is a bad idea because potential opponents can build hard counters. The Americans spent decades under reporting what their systems can do. The Soviets spent decades over reporting on their platforms.
@@seanabbott798 great and interesting point!
@@seanabbott798I wasn't born during CCCP, but I do not doubt it!
I am to an agreement@@G_F1
6:18 "War friends"
Came for War Fronts...left with War Friends. Cool
We are friends now 🎉
Maybe the real war was the friends we made along the way.
biggest example of this period was the F-117, a plane which defeated every single air defense of the time. It was kept secret until the cold war ended. The US could have flown planes over Moscow, and they wouldn't have known until things hit the ground. An immensely powerful thing, kept secret. The way I see it, weapons to make war painful are made public. Weapons to make war swift are kept secret
The Kid (F22): I can turn invisible?!
A person of culture here 👆🏻 😂
anyone under the impression that governments are forthcoming and transparent knows what color of crayon tastes the best.
😂😂 I don’t know ask a trump supporter they would know.
Blue.
You mean all the dems? Aka commies and traitors?
@Recon6delta what does comment have to do with Trump?
The video is not arguing that governments are forthcoming and transparent.
superpower or near superpower nations are always developing weapons "in secret" but as soon as the program completes or sometimes fails, they will be immediately revealed to the public for purposes of deterrence
8:45 love the nod to Theodore Roosevelt's quote: "Speak softly but carry a big stick", a matter of descalation without subservience, gratuity or tribute, while maintaining a strong deterrence that consequences are guaranteed if you tread on me. Can't exactly hide a big whooping Stick, but you can speak in a manner to assure the other party they won't get the stick if they behave themselves properly.
Speaking of don't tread on me, the rattlesnake is a great example in nature of bonified deterrence. Leave the snake alone it won't bother you, annoy it, and you can taste the danger in the air as the tail rattles, tread on the snake, be prepared to be bitten. Ofc in reality we just carry a bigger stick or shovel and smack the thing, sorta a uno reverse card, well, if your lucky and know what your doing. I Do Not encourage any to handle or hit any dangerous creatures unless it's absolutely necessary, and it's better to call animal control/professionals. Snake pulls out it's stick, your stick is bigger, snake calls PETA, snake has the bigger stick now....whole deck of uno reverse cards.
To be a deterrent you only have to be equal or one step ahead. If you was 5 steps ahead why would you share that and encourage/pressure your enemies to try and copy or catch up.
Thank you for doing a video about that "gravitic drive" conspiracy, from Shawn Ryan's show!
It seems to me that developing a weapons program, making it successful and then keeping it secret undermines the point of staying on the cutting edge of weapons technology; the whole point is to create weapons that are so frightening that the enemy isn't willing to come out to play at all. You win by default and expend no excess resources. If the opponent doesn't know it exists, as a deterrent it stops working.
Edit: Lol or wait until 7:20 and Simon gets there.
bruh this is 2025.. everything known can just be reversed engineered and countered.. secret weapons matter.. chriswoodend2036
But why spoil secrets when you already have all the deterrent (nukes) you could dream of? A public 6th gen doesn't change the equation. If nukes don't deter you, then the 6th gen will at least make short process with your stupidity.
The correct way is to build that frightening weapon but keep its true potential hidden. Overkill is good.
"But vhy didn't you tell ze vurld, eh?"
- Dr. Strangelove, Dr. Strangelove.
This video is a good start. But what about laser pistols, death stars or at least Imperial Star Destroyers? Fighters that could do both fly in atmosphere AND outer space aka X Wing or Tie fighters?
IMO there are basically only two major rationales / conditions that favour keeping secret weapons. Firstly, during an active conflict, where one side is developing / keeping a new capability that they plan to only use at the most opportune time; e.g. Ukraine. The second is when you are the hegemon. Military weapons is literally an arms race where a new capability causes one's adversaries to develop countermeasures and/or equivalence that then prompt you to develop something new to counter it to keep your edge, which gets expensive fast. As the hegemon, keeping your bleeding edge capabilities secret limits this progression, in turn saving you $$$ over time.
The stick analogy was hilarious
Unless the "secret" is a true game changer. Knowledge of its existence would cause a scramble to decipher that technology.
0:24 I love how corridor crews Boston dynamics video is still used to explain robots and artificial intelligence when it’s a man in a mocap suit
*The most significant secrets lie not in undisclosed weapons but in the true capabilities of existing ones.*
I was asking myself why I'm such a nerd with all the love for Simon's content...but honnestly, Simon's the nerd. Simon you nerd ❤
Secret weapons are like high scores.
You know what I have because you can see my high score. Eventually, you beat my high score, but I then release a new high score almost immediately. You eventually beat my new high score, but again, almost immediately, I released another new high score.
As long as my high score beats yours, I'm happy. You don't get to know my highest score.
The US had F117's in 1984. We'd have never launched a first strike as depicted in 'The Day After'... it would have been a T-72 and T-80 turrent toss in the Fulda Gap. USSR would have lost bad.
Every time cobra Commander had a new weapon to take over the world, He immediately told everyone about it.
Yo Joe. Lol
That 6th gen PLAF stealth plane reveal must be too advanced to glean secrets on since they very clearly showed its profile and rear aspect. Definitely not propaganda at all.
Not only countries but companies also develop military technology in secret.
This is what I came to say. The private military industrial complex are the ones who would want to keep secrets, and that's really for development purposes, not maintaining arms stockpiles.
I, for one, am ok with Simon flooding us with content.
Look how long the Delta Force has been around (1977, that we know of) and the U.S. has yet to officially acknowledge their existence .
"Artificial Intelligence."
-Proceeds to show a Corridor Crew CGI Skit
You need a mixture of the 2. When researching and developing you need to keep them secret until last minute as to not give the enemy time to react and develop the same or counters to what you are building. While there is merit in publically showing what you have for deterrance it dosnt mean you should show everything. For example a cruise missile that is hypersonic, it may not be a game changer in the sense it would stop a war but it can be a game changer in certain pivital battles. So in this essense a secret is better becuase you get to give the enemy a surprise. Ig a nation can both publically show weapons as deterrance and be known for bringing top secret weapons to battle should it ever come you will have a reputation for being able to have great weapons when times of war appears. If that make sense so the idea of secrecy can also be a deterrant in that aspect... what is my enemy hiding? Its the fear of the unknown which can be the deterrant.
But like a few people have said already overall the biggest secrets are the true capabilities of weapons. The west tends to understate statistics while the east especially russia has always overbloated, for example claiming that the t90m has reverse gears to reverse faster when we saw ample examples in ukraine which did not have such features and many turned around with tails between their legs.
Thank you for your contribution to enriching the content on UA-cam. Your videos always exceed expectations!🤠🐳🐘
In general, yes. But I think it merits to add the category of weapons kept secret because announcing one has them might turn the international community or even hesitant potential enemies against one. Think of biological or chemical weapons i.e.. At most you might advertise THAT you have them and suggest a few tamer variants, but I could easily see a world where nations like North Korea might have some truly terrifying stuff locked up in a labratory to use as an actual last resort or publicise as a deterrent once the situation has already become untennable.
Making people believe you have more than you actually do, is a secret weapon all on his own!
Most are going to be known - but it’s very different to have people aware, vs. to queue people into the specifications at the beginning of dev and allow others to prepare. Superior Weapons have a limited time frame of superiority. So you keep the details secret to prolong that period.
18:45 "we don't live in a world of preemptive strikes"
Check your pager about that!
I would argue Russia’s Oreshnik missiles used on Dnipro were a practical secret weapon now used as a deterrent
Can we please see some historical battles soon? Like ;
Battle of Britain 🇬🇧
Korean war 🇰🇵 🇰🇷
Battle of Midway 🇺🇸
Attack on Pearl Harbour 🇺🇸
Battle of Waterloo 🇫🇷 🇧🇪
Battle of Thermopolae etc 🇬🇷
Battle of the Silarius River!
@CelesteO-h6w
Yes that too. You didn't need to like your own comment, I'd have done it for you
Secret weapons make sense during a long devopment cycle. A weapon in devopment has o deterrent value. Conversely nobody develops a counter to something they don't know ow exists. The F117 is the perfect example. Nobody was ready for stealth because they thought it was impossible. The moment it was ready, and had deterrent value, it stopped being a secret, but by keeping the devopment secret it denied the opponent a chance to develop a counter.
The way I have always thought about it is the weapons we know about are a step behind the secret weapons we actually have. However, that doesn’t make sense if our adversaries are doing the same thing.
The real secret weapons were the friends we made along the way
the triangular glasses are a good look
I used to chauffeur DARPA science staff. Sometimes, I would have nightmares about those dudes getting all their projects approved.
Nah you didnt. Cause then you wouldnknow anything they do
"Persistence is a secret weapon for everyone"
-- Liu Wen
As a counterpoint, leading up to (and during) WWII poland did have super secret anti tank guns that worked against nazi tanks (of the early war).
To keep said guns effective it was crucial that the builder of tanks in reich werent aware of them, as quiet achieveable increases in armour would have rendered them ineffective.
As such soldiers never seen said guns till the start of the war.
in a world of deterrence, you kinda have to have a high military defense budget. a secretive budget spent anonymously. does lead to a lot of possible misuse but inevitable, i think. and let's just hope the citizens at the time support the budget, a lack of support, and you can pretty much kiss deterrence goodbye
Lol, the robot with a gun at 0:24 is the Corridor Digital Boss Town Parody.
He brings up the best reason to actually work on secret weapons (for certain countries like USA and China) they are Deterrents when the threat of a secret weapon is credible. And the best way to make a threat credible is to actually do the thing you’re threatening.
There are secret weapons that have to remain secret due to international agreements. For instance nuclear powered weaponized space assets. Knowing that these exist and where they exist means they can be targeted or that allied countries can petition for their removal
The existence of super weapons is super fantasy. But in fact, the real "secret weapons" are the lack of transparency on things like radar/missile range and targetting technology.
We live in a circumstantial world so deterrance and secret weapons both exist it is a delicate balance. It is foolish to think it is just one way. There is even a third option and it is called the bluff
Developing secret weapons is a deterrence of a different sort. The R&D effort that is concealed may keep an opponent from pursuing the same technology.
A secret weapon won the Pacific theatre in WW2. There's some precedent...
1:10 - Chapter 1 - The argument for secret weapons
6:15 - Chapter 2 - The argument against
16:10 - Chapter 3 - The verdict
Exploding Pager. Best kept secret weapon of our time.
Good timez 👍
Yeah, don't tell anybody, but the UK keeps a handgun hidden somewhere incase anyone tries to break in.
Ambiguity is a form of deterrence. Many “secrets” are more unconfirmed technologies.
What is scary is why/how secret weapons become known. Sometime it's best keeped secret.
The point about engagement reminds me of when people pretended to be scared of AI or more recently when people pretended to be surprised by the Honey scam. Sometimes people collectively play dumb because it's fun.
I'm still scared of AI and that won't be changing. Rogue AI in cyberpunk is seeming increasingly likely since everyone wants to throw AI in household robots and appliances for some fing reason. Combine that with the internet and to me it just doesn't look good.
@@Ballistics_Computer Well you don’t need to be. The AI that we have is nowhere near the capacity needed to do whatever happens in Cyberpunk and other movies and games e.t.c.
You don't necessarily keep the weapon secret, but you do keep some of its capabilities secret. First of all, you want to deter someone attacking you in the first place, so show them the fancy toys. But secondly, you don't want them to know how to counter that weapon.
Guys, what are you using for background music?
I mean, when the conflict is already ongoing, nukes as a deterrence are useless, because what hey might be supposed to deter from happening, as already happening. So in that case, they actually were more useful as a secret weapon
16:36 is actually just a mock up of “rods from god” in kerbal space program. Just thought I’d put that out there
damn I had the impulse to check out the latest videos on this channel too
To quote my favourite... The whole point would be lost of you kept it a secret....
Such a fun video idea
"The whole point of a doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret."
--Dr. Strangelove
Josh Hollings over on The Sandbox covered this a while back.
@1:02
Writing my thoughts on this topic before continuing on with the video...
Big-stick diplomacy ("Carry a big stick but speak softly") of Theodore Roosevelt will prime the argument that force projection is more important as fear is a greater deterrent to conflict than diplomacy.
In this vein, if we take the Manhattan project as the only real example of military necessity forcing a nation to brute force themselves out of a corner then we will be right in our thinking that weapons and all military progress has been on demand.
However, from the experience of the cold war we have learned that arms races ensue from such displays of force.
Along with the reflexive development of defences to counteract such asymmetries of technological advances that an enemy might momentarily possess. Which could have lead to the revision of such exhibitionist military posturing.
Alternatively, given the bureaucratic maze and rigmarole of getting public funding for anything in the western nations it is going to be immensely difficult to allocate the substantial sums to fund any grand project through the public sector and manage to successfully keep it “secret”.
So basically I have no idea.
Let's see what these big brains have to say...
This is why I watch,
my knowledge is full of holes.
Whilst many key words of my episode bingo card were filled I missed a whole generation of military history and strategy.
But I'm merely a millennial neuroscientist and crypto bro with too much time on their hands.
Bravo Warfronts, Bravo
Not the clip of the robot from the Corridor Crew sketch at 0:24 lol
The COST of developing and manufacturing a new weapon is TREMENDOUS, so the production of a secret weapon is VERY DIFFICULT. Sure, there have been a few: nuclear bomb and SR-71, but even they were not secret for long.
"🤷 maybe, but not as much as you think." I love your show, and I agree with your conclusions here, but I also want to point out that there is a value in uncertainty. Not enough to justify a massive expenditure on a "secret weapon", but enough to make keeping certain developments secret for at least a period of time. What those developments are, however? Beats the hell out of me.
Simon my dude how many channels do you have ???
Deterrence relies on leaders actually caring about outcomes.
So couple issues
RQ-180 - this has been 100% confirmed by the air force back in 2024 when Lt. gen Bob Otto specifically mentioned it at a event in virgina saying that the RQ-180 would "give the pentagon better access to contested airspace"
SR-72 - I think this one is pretty much confirmed as well. Theirs 2014 contracts with NASA and Lockheed Martin. LH yearly has small little updates on it. Heck they even said theyd have a flying prototype this year and they are wanting to include thr newer hypersonic missle payloads with the sr72.
The plane in top gun looks like the sr72 because top gun was able to enlist Skunkworks from LH to help design the darkstar
Good one 😊
Mutually Assured Destruction only works when all actors are rational.
This video truly challenges the myth of "secret weapons." While the allure of undisclosed superweapons is undeniable, the reality is more complex. Modern warfare thrives on deterrence, not surprise strikes. The true value of a weapon lies in the enemy knowing it exists, not in keeping it hidden. What are your thoughts? Do secret weapons actually matter in today’s military strategies, or is deterrence the real game-changer?
I believe it was HLC that was saying that the US military doesn’t even show a weapon till it’s been ready and they’ve been working on the next advancement because they know once it’s out there other countries are already working on imitation and countering.
So yes some is deterrent but also some is for sure top secret
?HLC?
0:24 they did not use a corridor meme video 💀
Electromagnetic propulsion is definitely a thing
It is. And has so for dozens of years.
ITS used in a number of satalites to manuver
Absolutely. There was a company that has a video on UA-cam of them flying their drone around a warehouse. No moving parts, it's wild.
“the whole point of a doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret”
Once you are in a war, deterrence is useless.