DRF Times 23.1 , 47, 110.3 134.4 147.2 That is impressive. The fact that Always Dreaming clipped heals in the beginning, and didn't go down, and still was ridden forward by a great jockey, Johnny V. ***Best of Luck to Tereas Viola. Happy for you and your family. Hope to see your brother Mike around the neighborhood.
Forget the Beyer. Look how dynamic and powerful Always Dreaming looked in the final furlong of this race. If he needed to run a 102 Beyer to win the race, he easily would have done it. There is no doubt in my mind this horse will love the 1 1/4 Derby distance.
+TMW Always Dreaming intrigues me but I'm taking a stand against him just like I am against the horse who will be the Derby favorite. in fact I see Classic Empire OTB- off the board or at least not in the money w/p/s/ this is the first Derby since I started betting and handicapping thoroughbred horseracing back in 1975 that I don't have a Derby Win Horse or Win Bet. I have the field narrowed down to 4 horses 2 bombs/longshots and 2 mid level price horses. this yrs Oaks however different story. I have that race clocked cold. my price Filly for Place and my ex bx with her and the Filly Monster (Right Andy Serling)
Too far back early and his run was over by the middle of the back stretch. Just glad he placed and didn't run for nothing. Great race tho, by Always Dreaming.
A gunnevera observo que al girar la ultima curva al castigarlo por el lado derecho tiende a tirar hacia dentro luego al castigar a la izquierda el retoma la atropellada en firme seria bueno corregir esto, seria recomendable castigar solo a la izquierda a ver como se comporta.
I mean you can not really get much more impressive than Always Dreaming in the Florida Derby. This horse did get a perfect trip but wasn't even asked to do much and won easily but I refuse to bet Pletcher horses. In my opinion, this horse will be the Post time favorite come Derby Day, ahead of Classic Empire but I refuse to bet this horse. If i get beat, so be it. I just think there are other logical horses that have a good shot to win this race at much bigger odds. Maybe Ill throw this horse ahead of a couple of my longshots just in case because is Always Dreaming really this good. I love Hence, I think he is maturing at the right time but Irish War Cry deserves to be the favorite and he is my top pick. Also like Practical Joke as a possible longshot. Im trhowing Classic Empire and McCracken out.
Why are you throwing out McCraken? He has 3 wins at Churchill Downs, is ridden by a jockey having the best year of his career, trained by a two-time Derby winner who knows how to prep a horse, and is in a great post position at #15. I'm betting he wins it!
Just a gut instinct. Yes, McCracken has been great at Churchill but like I predicted, Always Dreaming is now the Derby Favorite at 8 hours before the race. I just don't think McCracken is as good as Always Dreaming or Irish War Cry for that matter. Maybe I am wrong which is more often than not but you have to throw someone out. Out of Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, and Irish War Cry, you need to find the horse you like best. Always Dreaming has run just 3 times I think which scares me and is coming off the fastest Florida Derby in a very long time. Usually after a horse comes off a race like that, they have a clunker which is why I changed my mind again and am going all in on Irish War Cry. After watching Paradise Wood lose in the Kentucky Oaks yesterday coming off her insanely good race, that was what made me go with IWC instead of Always Dreaming. I am boxin IWC with a couple long shots and hope to get lucky. Irish War Cry with Looking at Lee and Practical Joke. But as you said, McCracken has a very good shot and will probably win with my luck!!!
Nothing at all wrong with your three picks. All very good horses. I've got Lookin' at Lee and Practical Joke in a few exotics, but I'm still taking McCraken for the win.
I am not going to write off GUNNEVARA just yet. Beaten even money favorite w. Castellano??? It is virtually impossible to win from that post at 9f at Gulfstream and having to close on that type of track at that distance. He was clocked in 58:4 last 5f so it was not like he wasn't running. Churchill downs stretch a different animal than Gulfstream.
he has class and closes well ,thats all you need to know when most of the fav's will be near or on the lead . he should be a strong factor if the track is fair. has to be included.
Even tho the track played super sonic on saurday cant take anything away from the time still the fastest final time since Alydar now thas some company. I think he hits the board in the Derby i just dnt think he wins it bt i love the name Always Dreaming big time name 🙏🏾💯
These were all Allowance winners like Arrogate. How are they breaking Records while winning by a few lenghts Against Slow horses?/??/? I call bullshiet
Castellano lost 5-6 lengths on Gunnevera with that poor start. Get out of the gate first, then head left to the rail. He tried to do everything all at once. Take a deep breath, Castellano. Keep your powder dry, big guy! You have an excellent horse.
Do not worry about Gunnavera. If you know anything about horseracing then you know when a horse runs his 2 best races ever back to back the next race he will flatten a little. 72% of Kentucky Derby winners lost the race before the derby. Im happy, better odds on the Gun now.
Nyquist ran his two highest BSF back-to-back going into the Derby last year. Chrome did the same in 2014. Orb did the same in 2013. I'll Have Another did the same in 2012. Animal Kingdom almost did. Super Saver did. Even Mine that Bird did. Big Brown, same thing. Etc., etc. Grindstone, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, FuPeg, Monrachos all ran their two best BSF over their final two prep races. In the last 40 years the Derby winner either finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep 33 times with no horse having won the Derby in that span after having lost their final prep by more than 4 1/2 lengths. Gunnevera also got a thorograph X race in the Florida Derby, and in the 35 years since thorograph have been making figures, there's only been one horse that won the Derby after an X race in their final prep. i.e. Your comment "if you know anything about horseracing then you know when a horsre runs his 2 best races ever back to back the next race he will flatten a little" is complete and utter rubbish as it pertains to the Derby.
www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/classicempiretg.pdf That's Classic Empire's thorograph sheet for a comparison. Ran a 0 in the BC Juvenile thus producing a new top. Came back in the HOly Bull and ran a 4 1/2, and because it was "more than 4 points worse than previous top" in went down as an X race. He then ran a 2 1/2 this past weekend in the Arkansas Derby. It gives the 3 race thoro-pattern near the upper left corner, and in Classic Empire's case his is a Top-X-Off
All these numbers mean shit. Look at the prep races. Most of the prep races are garbage, 2nd tier hopefuls. Gotta finish strong in the derby, and half the winning horses ive seen are struggling at the end of the race. Im sticking with the Gunn. People compare him to Exaggerator, but Exaggerator made his move and then cruised. If he got past everyone with that move then he won. But Gunnaveras late kick doesnt stall, it gets stronger. Added distance gives him all the time in the world. If you watch the Florida Derby then you should know that were just seeing how far to keep the Gunn back. It was a prep race. A mile and a quarter he wins.
The numbers are the numbers, Adam. They're factual in their nature and are in direct conflict to your claim that "If you know anything about horseracing then you know when a horse runs his 2 best races ever back to back the next race he will flatten a little" as it pertains to the Derby as the majority of Derby winners over the last 25 years have in fact ran their two highest BSF in their final two prep races before running in the Derby. That's just a fact that anybody can look up for themselves. It's also a fact that over the last 40 years no horse that finished more than 4 1/2 lengths back in their final prep race came back to win the Derby. On thorograph, 19 of the past 35 Derby winners came into the Derby after having run a new top in their final prep, 10 of them had paired their top in their final prep, 5 ran an off race in their final prep, and only 1 single horse won the Derby after running an X race in their final prep. Again, that's just the facts. Just because you wish it wasn't the case doesn't make it so. You can look up any figure source you want and they'll all tell you the same thing and that the vast majority of Derby winners over the years go into the Derby after maintaining or improving their form over their last couple of prep races. Horses you need to make "excuses" for in regards to their last prep race rarely go on to win the Derby save for only a couple of exceptions. "If you watch the Florida Derby then you should know that were just seeing how far to keep the Gunn back. It was a prep race." Of course I watched the race Gunnevera ran. I also listened to clockers like Bruno DeJulio who said Gunnevera was on the lighter side going into the Florida Derby and wasn't training as well as he usually did. Some of those thoughts were echoed by observers like Caton Bredar, who also said that Gunnevera had lost weight between the FOY and FD. I also heard Gunnevera's jockey, Javier Castellano, in the post race say that the horse lacked his usual "punch" when Castellano was asking him for run around the far turn. So who's opinion should I trust here? People who earn their living in the business and have been for some time, including the very person that was riding the horse? Or some random guy on the internet who is seemingly using wishful thinking to say that Gunnevera's last effort was completely by design? Hmm, tough question. Or not. Oh, and I also saw a 113/1 no hope longshot named Coleman Rocky run the stretch in a faster time than did Gunnevera too (12.29 to 12.67 over final furlong), so forgive if I'm not impressed with the way Gunnevera finished that race.
I like you Andrick. You make good points. But too many numbers floating around. Obviously the way the race plays out in your head is different than the way it plays out in my head. Ive been trying to see some more races from Always Dreaming. Strong win in Florida. I guess im just in love with the Gunn. But i will say this, 10 of these horses could win, and we could both make an argument as to why they won. I like the Gunn and Irish War Cry. For the first time in awhile we will see a favorite possibly at 5/1 odds. Big money derby. Love it. Just remember, best horse doesnt always win. Stick to your pick. If you have doubts about your pick, then there is no doubt. Keep in touch.
I WOULD SAY THAT TODD HAS A LOADED HORSE HERE. FRACTIONS WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE. HE WENT 23 AND CHANGE EVERY QUARTER THE MILE. GOT MY DERBY BET. I DONT CARE HOW FAST THE TRACK WAS, HORSES JUST DONT DO THAT
Was this a souped up todd Pletcher surface that day? If so then toss the first Saturday in May! Seen wayyyyyyyyy too many of these type of performances over the years by Pletcher horses in these Derby preps only to be huge flops in the Kentucky Derby!
it actually looked like gunnevera was coming hard in the last 3 strides, a lil distance wont hurt , i think they held him back on purpose..not saying he can win the derby , but he definately reserved something for the derby
+Phantom Planet I can see your grasp of the written language is tenuous, at best, but there is no reason to be rude to others because they like a horse. That is why they run the races. You don't like Gunnevera, great, don't bet him but there is no reason to be rude because someone else may like him.
You see that filly in my profile picture? She's a 3-time Stakes winner and both her Grandsires were Alydar and Affirmed.. She told me that you all had better put your money on "McCracken" to take the roses home, because he closes like a machine and loves to run on the Twin Spires surface! :-)
I'm realizing more and more the supposed experts are a bunch of idiots. He checks or clipped heels around the first turn sits outside a horse whose rank on the backstretch, and all i hear leading into the preakness is how easy of a trip he got his last two starts. Great horses find great trips.
These Todd Pletcher horses are Built to win these Slowly run Races. But they "Always" fail against top notch Horses. Since he's 1 for 50 on Kentucky Derby
That is because the Track was fast that day... If any other horse from any other prep with the same style had run in it, they too would have a FAST PREP... Way too much goes into NOVICE gamblers thinking on TIME... You could say the same thing in track vs track... and day vs day... The LOU. derby was run in 149 and change, the past 3 years it has been up around 1.51. Thus, should those horses be considered 2 seconds or 10 lengths faster that the past 3 year winners ? This years Crop is poor to say the least... Maybe a couple of GOOD horse, nothing great and no triple crown winner.. IWC, maybe this races 3rd place finisher on a fast pace, deep track can close for a piece, and a few others... There are very LIVELY longshots this year and tickets will or should be HUGE !
Big fan of this horse. Always Dreaming! Love the name.
DRF Times 23.1 , 47, 110.3 134.4 147.2
That is impressive. The fact that Always Dreaming clipped heals in the beginning, and didn't go down, and still was ridden forward by a great jockey, Johnny V. ***Best of Luck to Tereas Viola. Happy for you and your family. Hope to see your brother Mike around the neighborhood.
smart coment
thank you .
Good points you made.. Good luck!
Forget the Beyer. Look how dynamic and powerful Always Dreaming looked in the final furlong of this race. If he needed to run a 102 Beyer to win the race, he easily would have done it. There is no doubt in my mind this horse will love the 1 1/4 Derby distance.
+TMW Always Dreaming intrigues me but I'm taking a stand against him just like I am against the horse who will be the Derby favorite. in fact I see Classic Empire OTB- off the board or at least not in the money w/p/s/ this is the first Derby since I started betting and handicapping thoroughbred horseracing back in 1975 that I don't have a Derby Win Horse or Win Bet. I have the field narrowed down to 4 horses 2 bombs/longshots and 2 mid level price horses. this yrs Oaks however different story. I have that race clocked cold. my price Filly for Place and my ex bx with her and the Filly Monster (Right Andy Serling)
Fantastic race!
Too far back early and his run was over by the middle of the back stretch. Just glad he placed and didn't run for nothing. Great race tho, by Always Dreaming.
Today is the day. Good luck to everyone.
A gunnevera observo que al girar la ultima curva al castigarlo por el lado derecho tiende a tirar hacia dentro luego al castigar a la izquierda el retoma la atropellada en firme seria bueno corregir esto, seria recomendable castigar solo a la izquierda a ver como se comporta.
I mean you can not really get much more impressive than Always Dreaming in the Florida Derby. This horse did get a perfect trip but wasn't even asked to do much and won easily but I refuse to bet Pletcher horses. In my opinion, this horse will be the Post time favorite come Derby Day, ahead of Classic Empire but I refuse to bet this horse. If i get beat, so be it. I just think there are other logical horses that have a good shot to win this race at much bigger odds. Maybe Ill throw this horse ahead of a couple of my longshots just in case because is Always Dreaming really this good. I love Hence, I think he is maturing at the right time but Irish War Cry deserves to be the favorite and he is my top pick. Also like Practical Joke as a possible longshot. Im trhowing Classic Empire and McCracken out.
Why are you throwing out McCraken? He has 3 wins at Churchill Downs, is ridden by a jockey having the best year of his career, trained by a two-time Derby winner who knows how to prep a horse, and is in a great post position at #15. I'm betting he wins it!
Just a gut instinct. Yes, McCracken has been great at Churchill but like I predicted, Always Dreaming is now the Derby Favorite at 8 hours before the race. I just don't think McCracken is as good as Always Dreaming or Irish War Cry for that matter. Maybe I am wrong which is more often than not but you have to throw someone out. Out of Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, and Irish War Cry, you need to find the horse you like best. Always Dreaming has run just 3 times I think which scares me and is coming off the fastest Florida Derby in a very long time.
Usually after a horse comes off a race like that, they have a clunker which is why I changed my mind again and am going all in on Irish War Cry. After watching Paradise Wood lose in the Kentucky Oaks yesterday coming off her insanely good race, that was what made me go with IWC instead of Always Dreaming.
I am boxin IWC with a couple long shots and hope to get lucky. Irish War Cry with Looking at Lee and Practical Joke.
But as you said, McCracken has a very good shot and will probably win with my luck!!!
Nothing at all wrong with your three picks. All very good horses. I've got Lookin' at Lee and Practical Joke in a few exotics, but I'm still taking McCraken for the win.
Beauty Horse 😍😍😍😍
Sweet
Shouldn't cut the video off before the gallop out, very important part of handicapping
I am not going to write off GUNNEVARA just yet. Beaten even money favorite w. Castellano??? It is virtually impossible to win from that post at 9f at Gulfstream and having to close on that type of track at that distance. He was clocked in 58:4 last 5f so it was not like he wasn't running. Churchill downs stretch a different animal than Gulfstream.
he has class and closes well ,thats all you need to know when most of the fav's will be near or on the lead . he should be a strong factor if the track is fair. has to be included.
Even tho the track played super sonic on saurday cant take anything away from the time still the fastest final time since Alydar now thas some company. I think he hits the board in the Derby i just dnt think he wins it bt i love the name Always Dreaming big time name 🙏🏾💯
These were all Allowance winners like Arrogate.
How are they breaking Records while winning by a few lenghts
Against Slow horses?/??/?
I call bullshiet
Castellano lost 5-6 lengths on Gunnevera with that poor start. Get out of the gate first, then head left to the rail. He tried to do everything all at once. Take a deep breath, Castellano. Keep your powder dry, big guy! You have an excellent horse.
hence is the horse to beat
the big G DOES HAVE A SHOT HE WAS LEFT TO FAR WAS rallying & he will be fresh I will be at the winning window Chao baby
tueres el mejor yanii
Do not worry about Gunnavera. If you know anything about horseracing then you know when a horse runs his 2 best races ever back to back the next race he will flatten a little. 72% of Kentucky Derby winners lost the race before the derby. Im happy, better odds on the Gun now.
Nyquist ran his two highest BSF back-to-back going into the Derby last year. Chrome did the same in 2014. Orb did the same in 2013. I'll Have Another did the same in 2012. Animal Kingdom almost did. Super Saver did. Even Mine that Bird did. Big Brown, same thing. Etc., etc. Grindstone, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, FuPeg, Monrachos all ran their two best BSF over their final two prep races. In the last 40 years the Derby winner either finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep 33 times with no horse having won the Derby in that span after having lost their final prep by more than 4 1/2 lengths. Gunnevera also got a thorograph X race in the Florida Derby, and in the 35 years since thorograph have been making figures, there's only been one horse that won the Derby after an X race in their final prep.
i.e. Your comment "if you know anything about horseracing then you know when a horsre runs his 2 best races ever back to back the next race he will flatten a little" is complete and utter rubbish as it pertains to the Derby.
www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/classicempiretg.pdf
That's Classic Empire's thorograph sheet for a comparison. Ran a 0 in the BC Juvenile thus producing a new top. Came back in the HOly Bull and ran a 4 1/2, and because it was "more than 4 points worse than previous top" in went down as an X race. He then ran a 2 1/2 this past weekend in the Arkansas Derby. It gives the 3 race thoro-pattern near the upper left corner, and in Classic Empire's case his is a Top-X-Off
All these numbers mean shit. Look at the prep races. Most of the prep races are garbage, 2nd tier hopefuls. Gotta finish strong in the derby, and half the winning horses ive seen are struggling at the end of the race. Im sticking with the Gunn. People compare him to Exaggerator, but Exaggerator made his move and then cruised. If he got past everyone with that move then he won. But Gunnaveras late kick doesnt stall, it gets stronger. Added distance gives him all the time in the world. If you watch the Florida Derby then you should know that were just seeing how far to keep the Gunn back. It was a prep race. A mile and a quarter he wins.
The numbers are the numbers, Adam. They're factual in their nature and are in direct conflict to your claim that "If you know anything about horseracing then you know when a horse runs his 2 best races ever back to back the next race he will flatten a little" as it pertains to the Derby as the majority of Derby winners over the last 25 years have in fact ran their two highest BSF in their final two prep races before running in the Derby. That's just a fact that anybody can look up for themselves. It's also a fact that over the last 40 years no horse that finished more than 4 1/2 lengths back in their final prep race came back to win the Derby. On thorograph, 19 of the past 35 Derby winners came into the Derby after having run a new top in their final prep, 10 of them had paired their top in their final prep, 5 ran an off race in their final prep, and only 1 single horse won the Derby after running an X race in their final prep. Again, that's just the facts. Just because you wish it wasn't the case doesn't make it so. You can look up any figure source you want and they'll all tell you the same thing and that the vast majority of Derby winners over the years go into the Derby after maintaining or improving their form over their last couple of prep races. Horses you need to make "excuses" for in regards to their last prep race rarely go on to win the Derby save for only a couple of exceptions.
"If you watch the Florida Derby then you should know that were just seeing how far to keep the Gunn back. It was a prep race."
Of course I watched the race Gunnevera ran. I also listened to clockers like Bruno DeJulio who said Gunnevera was on the lighter side going into the Florida Derby and wasn't training as well as he usually did. Some of those thoughts were echoed by observers like Caton Bredar, who also said that Gunnevera had lost weight between the FOY and FD. I also heard Gunnevera's jockey, Javier Castellano, in the post race say that the horse lacked his usual "punch" when Castellano was asking him for run around the far turn. So who's opinion should I trust here? People who earn their living in the business and have been for some time, including the very person that was riding the horse? Or some random guy on the internet who is seemingly using wishful thinking to say that Gunnevera's last effort was completely by design? Hmm, tough question. Or not. Oh, and I also saw a 113/1 no hope longshot named Coleman Rocky run the stretch in a faster time than did Gunnevera too (12.29 to 12.67 over final furlong), so forgive if I'm not impressed with the way Gunnevera finished that race.
I like you Andrick. You make good points. But too many numbers floating around. Obviously the way the race plays out in your head is different than the way it plays out in my head. Ive been trying to see some more races from Always Dreaming. Strong win in Florida. I guess im just in love with the Gunn. But i will say this, 10 of these horses could win, and we could both make an argument as to why they won. I like the Gunn and Irish War Cry. For the first time in awhile we will see a favorite possibly at 5/1 odds. Big money derby. Love it. Just remember, best horse doesnt always win. Stick to your pick. If you have doubts about your pick, then there is no doubt. Keep in touch.
I WOULD SAY THAT TODD HAS A LOADED HORSE HERE. FRACTIONS WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE. HE WENT 23 AND CHANGE EVERY QUARTER THE MILE. GOT MY DERBY BET. I DONT CARE HOW FAST THE TRACK WAS, HORSES JUST DONT DO THAT
what do you say now
Was this a souped up todd Pletcher surface that day? If so then toss the first Saturday in May! Seen wayyyyyyyyy too many of these type of performances over the years by Pletcher horses in these Derby preps only to be huge flops in the Kentucky Derby!
no stiff runs 147 and change. case closed.
You were right .
it actually looked like gunnevera was coming hard in the last 3 strides, a lil distance wont hurt , i think they held him back on purpose..not saying he can win the derby , but he definately reserved something for the derby
i can see you dont now nothing about horses.
+Phantom Planet I can see your grasp of the written language is tenuous, at best, but there is no reason to be rude to others because they like a horse. That is why they run the races. You don't like Gunnevera, great, don't bet him but there is no reason to be rude because someone else may like him.
+Kevin Potts Basing my inductive reasoning on the above sample I doubt Phantom Planet speaks it much better.
nobody knows everything about horses especially thoroughbred race horses they r unpredictable so enjoy the moment
In my opinion nobody knows everything about horses especially thoroughbred race horses so enjoy the moment (k derby)
sjona
What the hell were the running times?
1:47.47 = FAST
Dayam!!
You see that filly in my profile picture? She's a 3-time Stakes winner and both her Grandsires were Alydar and Affirmed.. She told me that you all had better put your money on "McCracken" to take the roses home, because he closes like a machine and loves to run on the Twin Spires surface! :-)
AD prove he is just a another TP juice bunny
State of Honor always ruins a hard honest race, give it up to him
i mean 'ruins' he alway 'ruins' a hard honest race
RUINS - he always 'ruins' a hard honest race
I'm realizing more and more the supposed experts are a bunch of idiots. He checks or clipped heels around the first turn sits outside a horse whose rank on the backstretch, and all i hear leading into the preakness is how easy of a trip he got his last two starts. Great horses find great trips.
Made it look easy. Bet the house at Churchill.
he stomped gunavera
Ll
These Todd Pletcher horses are Built to win these Slowly run Races.
But they "Always" fail against top notch Horses.
Since he's 1 for 50 on Kentucky Derby
Jim Romer this was the fastest Derby prep of the year
That is because the Track was fast that day... If any other horse from any other prep with the same style had run in it, they too would have a FAST PREP...
Way too much goes into NOVICE gamblers thinking on TIME... You could say the same thing in track vs track... and day vs day... The LOU. derby was run in 149 and change, the past 3 years it has been up around 1.51. Thus, should those horses be considered 2 seconds or 10 lengths faster that the past 3 year winners ?
This years Crop is poor to say the least... Maybe a couple of GOOD horse, nothing great and no triple crown winner.. IWC, maybe this races 3rd place finisher on a fast pace, deep track can close for a piece, and a few others... There are very LIVELY longshots this year and tickets will or should be HUGE !
3rd Fastest behind One Liner & Mastery, but there injured so
By Defaul it is the fastest lol!!
LOL
+ Barry Calvert ROTFLMFAO