Great input Bob , 2-3% mortgage Refis rates are a 30 year pay raise for borrowers. Without a tax increase , there is no mechanism to remove this spending power, same for 1031 exchange & real estate depreciation.
Bob is great at explaining how he comes at his measurements. Good to see him putting a challenge to Hugh’s theory of the level of relevance of current debt to the economy.👍👍 Will be interesting to see if Hugh incorporates this new idea into his next commentary for Bloomberg. And interesting to hear Bob say it takes a long time to play out that printing of money 18 months ago.
Another Friday, another Acid Cap pod review Here's what I got out of a fantastic mashup with @BobEUnlimited Think of the changes in the flow of credit This is where you find the meaningful impact on economic activity This cycle differs from 2008 because it was the private sector that was booming; heck, its always the private sector, right? Everyone leveraging up on mortgages and debt That whole dynamic was disturbed by higher rates and We saw a rapid credit deleveraging Private sector debt had credit problems Which created the economic pain that we call a deep recession People lost their houses This time around, not so much The private sector has been tranquil They were refinancing and fixing rates in 2022 Not leveraging The dynamics changed The Feds came in with their rate bazooka and no one noticed Forget soft, everyone believes this is a happy landing But what if its the Government What if Washington's debt has credit problems ? Those guys don't do credit problems, do they? This week suggested otherwise. All that spending and leveraging up during the pandemic The mysterious drop off in tax revenues The only sector that borrowed short and forgot to fix A ballooning net interest cost Approaching 3% of GDP Other spending programs vulnerable Are we approaching the point of fiscal austerity ? I think we're right at that point... And it coincides with a zombie private sector A mandatory state of limbo The average person not able do anything Stuck in their house with their present car Stuck, stuck, stuck But hey, no repossessions The Feds always upset the apple cart, eventually I still see those rates tumbling Perhaps by the decree of the beleaguered treasury Anyway, @BobEUnlimited was a charm A bonhomme The very best adversary He made me think, I think you'll enjoy it
Every Bob in banking that I've ever met knows his money. I wouldn't have the assets in my brain without Bob Whalen. God rest His soul. Even if I had Scrooge McDucks swimming vault, pinching my pennies, doing it myself and believing in Christ, will let me see him 'gain in heaven.
> households haven't borrowed money yes they have, housing went up due to *zero* fundamentals. That is a form of credit extension. This guy doesn't think in terms of "real stuff" but claims he doesn't like economists.
The pandemic wall of Treasury real money printing is completely exhausted. Discretionary spending in the lower half of the economy is over. The automobile industry pump is over. The U.s. government is a fascist regime of deadly bureaucratic regulatory destruction. The federal reserve's pom poms are impotent. A financial three-act play of financial distress will now begin and not end easily or rwell. Ride us treasury's until the stock market bottoms then look for bargains such as dividend bearing stocks and ride out the next decade. Or you might try bartering your way out of this mess. Bugs Bunny said it's best "That's all folk"s.
Hugh, your call on tlt is absolutely sucking wind. It could be months before recession is called, if it's called. You have lead many unsophisticated followers into losses we didn't have to eat. Horrible timing my friend.
Hugh, thanks for having me on. It was a real pleasure. Look forward to doing it again in the future!
Bob ! You put pebbles in my jam jar, the joy is cascading over. Insightful macro discussions can be fun...
Great input Bob , 2-3% mortgage Refis rates are a 30 year pay raise for borrowers. Without a tax increase , there is no mechanism to remove this spending power, same for 1031 exchange & real estate depreciation.
@@HughHendryOfficial you should pin bob's comment 📌
One of the best guests in a long time
Private biz risk - check
Private hh risk - check
Public/ Govt risk - check
Would have loved to hear Bob's thoughts on banks
Bob is very good at explaining his train of thought - it was very clear, understandable and amazing. 👌🏼
I like Bob. He's obviously super smart and also a good communicator. Best guest for a while.
Thanks for watching!
Thanks Hugh I picked up some TLT calls on Thursday and made a tidy gain from Friday's rally
Very informative, learned a lot from Bob. Great guy, great pod !
Bob is quality.
Bob is great at explaining how he comes at his measurements. Good to see him putting a challenge to Hugh’s theory of the level of relevance of current debt to the economy.👍👍 Will be interesting to see if Hugh incorporates this new idea into his next commentary for Bloomberg. And interesting to hear Bob say it takes a long time to play out that printing of money 18 months ago.
Another Friday, another Acid Cap pod review
Here's what I got out of a fantastic mashup with
@BobEUnlimited
Think of the changes in the flow of credit
This is where you find the meaningful impact on economic activity
This cycle differs from 2008 because it was the private sector that was booming; heck, its always the private sector, right? Everyone leveraging up on mortgages and debt
That whole dynamic was disturbed by higher rates and We saw a rapid credit deleveraging
Private sector debt had credit problems
Which created the economic pain that we call a deep recession
People lost their houses
This time around, not so much
The private sector has been tranquil
They were refinancing and fixing rates in 2022
Not leveraging
The dynamics changed
The Feds came in with their rate bazooka and no one noticed
Forget soft, everyone believes this is a happy landing
But what if its the Government
What if Washington's debt has credit problems ?
Those guys don't do credit problems, do they?
This week suggested otherwise.
All that spending and leveraging up during the pandemic
The mysterious drop off in tax revenues
The only sector that borrowed short and forgot to fix
A ballooning net interest cost
Approaching 3% of GDP
Other spending programs vulnerable
Are we approaching the point of fiscal austerity ?
I think we're right at that point...
And it coincides with a zombie private sector
A mandatory state of limbo
The average person not able do anything
Stuck in their house with their present car
Stuck, stuck, stuck
But hey, no repossessions
The Feds always upset the apple cart, eventually
I still see those rates tumbling
Perhaps by the decree of the beleaguered treasury
Anyway,
@BobEUnlimited
was a charm
A bonhomme
The very best adversary
He made me think, I think you'll enjoy it
Got to give you props for time discipline
could an intro be ever more genius?
amazing kick off to the show!
This should be good!
Every Bob in banking that I've ever met knows his money. I wouldn't have the assets in my brain without Bob Whalen. God rest His soul. Even if I had Scrooge McDucks swimming vault, pinching my pennies, doing it myself and believing in Christ, will let me see him 'gain in heaven.
Young Robbie Coltrane....less the gags
I sold my flat.. Good move or SHIIIIIIIIIITE!!?
4min in still not a word from the guest. Hugh, chill a little.
It's all gunna crash...
> households haven't borrowed money
yes they have, housing went up due to *zero* fundamentals. That is a form of credit extension.
This guy doesn't think in terms of "real stuff" but claims he doesn't like economists.
The pandemic wall of Treasury real money printing is completely exhausted. Discretionary spending in the lower half of the economy is over. The automobile industry pump is over. The U.s. government is a fascist regime of deadly bureaucratic regulatory destruction. The federal reserve's pom poms are impotent. A financial three-act play of financial distress will now begin and not end easily or rwell. Ride us treasury's until the stock market bottoms then look for bargains such as dividend bearing stocks and ride out the next decade. Or you might try bartering your way out of this mess. Bugs Bunny said it's best "That's all folk"s.
Hugh, your call on tlt is absolutely sucking wind. It could be months before recession is called, if it's called. You have lead many unsophisticated followers into losses we didn't have to eat. Horrible timing my friend.