What is amazing to me is that a couple of weeks ago, out of nowhere, there were again reports of unrest in Aleppo... And less than a fortnight later, Assad is gone
That’s the incredible point in all this, isn’t it? This dictatorship lasted half a century! Most Syrians have known nothing apart from the Assads. Let’s just hope the future is far brighter.
Waiting until after the fall of Damascus is testament to your instincts in following international News. This is why the world needs more academics on UA-cam ... And less of the chattering juvenile masses. @@JamesKerLindsay
Türkiye backs HTS; which the US calls rebranded Al Qaeda. The US backs SDF; which Türkiye calls rebranded PKK. Going to be interesting to see how this all gets worked out.
@sonuncu203 I'm curious as to why you would think that, considering the fact that America considers HTS an offshoot of Al Qaeedah and they've been at war with al Qaeedah for the past 30 years?
You are the best channel about topics related to geopolitics. I hope nothing but a brighter future to Syrian people as a Turk. I had the chance to meet many of them in the past years.
My fear is the power vacuum this creates, and the potential for a humanitarian crisis, the threat to religious minorities such as Christians and Yazidis... The power vacuum isn't only the target of extremists, but also Israel, and Turkey. I do hope that Syrian refugees from the civil war can return to a safe homeland.
As long as the different religious groups keep on fighting each other and wanting to be the dominating new power, the country will not see peace and prosperity.
Prof, James ker-Lindsay I found more helpful information and enjoying to watched your video, you put alot of hardwork for preparing excellent analysis, much appreciated you.
Thank you so much. There's a lot of focus on the current events. I hoped it would be useful to look at the history leading up to the regime's overthrow.
@@proximacentaur1654 was there ever a period of stability would be terrible for there leaders because the people will start looking at the mess there leaders have made instead of using the west and isreal as an excuse
Very glad that the algorithm served me this video. I have only the most basic of knowledge about Syria so I'm always glad for a new reliable source of information. Thanks!
After this I really think a lot of experts in Middle east studies should start doing serious self-reflection. Just in this year we were told that Gaza would be Israel's Vietnam, Hezbollah would be this horrific force which would unleash hell on Israel and even harder than Hamas to defeat, and of course, the prediction that Assad is consolidated. Not to mention the ideas about the Islamic republic's offensive and defensive military capabilities being proven wrong several times.
Gaza has not been a military victory for Israel. Just a Westen aided slaughter of civilians. You appear unaware of Hamas's murky relationship Israel. They are not the enemy as portrayed but ally of sorts.
@@FOLIPE Well, every single Westen analyst I have seen is talking about their moderate nature with a healthy does of skepticism. So no, I don't think it would be that surprising if it happens and it definitely won't be damaging to the reputation of said experts since they would be right. In this case they are just speculating from the fact that the HTS originates from extremism, but the cases I have mentioned are all related to the axis of resistance so I speculate there might be more to this issue than the experts simply making mistakes.
Thanks for the video. Even if i disagree with you a lot of the time, you always provide good background and insight into the conflicts in the world of today. Keep it up!
Thanks so much! Yes, I’m trying to do two videos a week now. There’s a lot going on! I also want to use the Tuesday videos to look at topics that don’t fit the Friday videos so well, such as videos more focused on history.
I still remember the Western media speculation, when he came to power, about how his British education and experiences (and his spouse's) would make Bashar more open to democratizing Syria. Guess we all now know how that turned out.
Sometimes wishful thinking prevails in the media. It's probably for the best that there is some of that from time to time. It helps to turn down the volume in geopolitical conflicts and tensions. But, yes, they were very, very wrong. I think this does raise the question of WHY this is so often the case in the Arab world. They just can't seem to move away from autocracy and brutality. A similar thing can be said about Russia (although it is a slightly different historical and cultural picture there.)
It will be interesting to see how this will affect Russia's ability to support regimes in Africa as Syria was the halfway point between Russia and Africa for Russia's supply efforts.
Thanks for this history. Good to know. I am especially looking for your analysis of the ground situation with the various groups, and your assessment of the various ways you think things will go forward. I'm sure you plan to do the video, and you just needed to setup the backstory with this current video, so the next one can start where this one leaves off. Looking fwd to it! All the best!
A lot of people were also encouraged when the Shah fell, and when Kadaffi was removed, and when Mubarak quit, and when Saddam lost, and when Arafat died, and when.... the list goes on and will probably go on forever 😮💨😮💨
As a Geopolitical outlookers Professor James where you expecting these toppling of Assad dynasty could anyway happened or possible before the Opposition rebels launched the shocked offensive on 27th.? For me it's unprecedented move. Thanks prof.
Thanks. This has definitely been one of the most unexpected developments in recent years! It had seemed that the war was all but over. The fact that Assad was being slowly welcomed back into international forums seemed to suggest that even the Arab states didn't expect this. This was certainly a "Blimey!" on Sunday morning when I woke up!
Great video Professor. The Assad dynasty and regime crumbling in two weeks after 50+ years of brutality, 13 of those in a multi-act civil war. Nobody saw it coming, yet it makes so much sense. Aren’t international affairs just like this?
Assad’s regime would’ve fallen Since 2013 had the international community helped like they did in Libya 2011 or Kosovo 1999. Russia and Iran saved him back then, and since that time he became a subordinate warlord proxy to Russia and iran who kept his totalitarian ways and lost his pre 2011 independance, his very survival depended on Russia and Iran. Once weakened, Assad was directly toppled, not even his army backed him, why would fight ? What to fight for ? A dictator that took one of the greatest middle eastern countries to its ruins ? Who transformed a once great promising country to a personalistic totalitarian regime in 1970, among the likes of Saddam Gaddafi or Kim ? They saw no reason, rebels promised amnesty if surrender, most were like «alr then, let’s get rid of him » so much so that, the battle of Damascus looked like a de facto coup.
Pretty disappointed with the lack of attention given to the brutality of the Hafez Assad regime as he purged hundreds of thousands of people and committed so many human rights violations. While I understand that it is not fair to blindly follow Western-centric ideologies and criticize him solely because he opposed the West, he would continuously play both sides of the cause without the interest of anyone but himself and his tyrannical rule. Maybe a video on that would be helpful to your viewers.
Great explanation. I’ve followed international politics for decades and was totally surprised by these turn of events. Assad’s allies hung him out to dry but then they have their own problems.
Or Iraq 2.0. Or Yemen 2.0 Probably not Yugoslavia 2.0 China after 1 of their Civil Wars is also a potential predecessor. Or maybe, just like Libya followed its own trajectory based on its specific circumstances, instead of following an exact example, so Syria will follow its own trajectory
From a Turkish viewpoint, I am also pretty interested to see how the Syrian nation function with Assad now gone. If they become uncontrollable, it will be a problem. I prefer to convert northeastern Syria into an autonomous zone under Syrian control, if the SDF promises to break away from PKK.
At some point, Turkey is going to have to take a leadership role in actually solving the endless problem of the missing Kurdish nation. Simply pretending the problem does not exist is never going to work - and that's exactly how Erdogan and his friends wish to proceed. I realize it is a sensitive issue ... but here we are once again. The Kurds are just too large a group to be subsumed into other countries. They aren't the CIrcassians or Assyrians.
@@Robespierre-lI True, but Türkish government follows as the Ottoman Empires footsteps. Therefore we want to live in peace together and Türkiye would not allow any Kurdish country with a terrorism past.
Last year when Syria's financial and economic management worsened, so many people in Assad's heartlands as well those working in Syria's state-owned institutions were seeing their living standards declining. No surprise to see even pro-Assad folks withdrew their support for Bashar when food and financial security weren't guaranteed anymore.
The naval base at Tartus and the airbase at Khmeimim are more valuable to Russia than Bashar Al Assad and his 2 to 3 billion USD in stolen wealth. Would the Russians trade Assad for bases? Also the HTS coalition and the Kurds are traditional enemies. Is Al Jolani the Salahaddin type figure that can unite the forces of modern Syria? One other thing that hasn't really been discussed is the devastation of Syria's economy. The Syrian economy is gone.
Syrian here, I hope those bases will get out, I hope the community 🇪🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 and regional actors 🇸🇦🇹🇷 could help Syria and make its transition easier and help us rebuild the country, a bit like post WW2 Germany Italy or Japan. The international community failed Syria in 2013, when, despite Obama’s red line speech, no concrete action was taken. We know what happened later on. I hope Syria can get out of its devastation, and make a come back as a normal country. US would need to get Syria out of this list of state sponsor of terror + out sanctions that were made against the Assad regime, and rebuild ties that hopefully will be good ! Assad had absolute control over all state institutions. Like Gaddafi, Saddam or Kim. Once he has fallen, it’s like the states institutions made a reset. It’s a brand new Syria, it’s in everyone interests to see it succeed. An exemple to countries hostile to the international community, that are dictatorships.
@suleyman8696 that would be ideal. However, the Israelis have hit Syria more than 430 times in the last 48 hours. The Israelis want Syria to stay destroyed. I'm sorry for my pessimism
@@MrMordechaiAnilevich Actually, the Israelis are taking out weapons that were ONLY used to suppress the Syrian people since 1982. Removing these weapons from Syria means a lot less violence and bloodshed during the transition and for Israel, a lot less potential for a conflict that would get Syria destroyed as a result.
@@suleyman8696 Unless the future gov can figure out a way to get both the Russians and the American Israelis out, the bases are probably going to stay for some time. It's not good for the optics if this future gov appears to be appeasing the American Israelis.
Some aspects you might want to cover in your next video on this topic are how the Syrian refugee crisis reshaped European politics (eg Brexit, etc) and the irony of how the Al Aqsa flood didn't wipe out Israel as intended, but rather is on course to wipe out the axis of resistance and possibly the hub of that axis.
Thanks for bringing up the actual situation in Syria before the start of the Assad dynasty. Nothing to write home about, so one wonders what kind of "democracy" could arise now. There is no precedent. It would be worthwhile to do a follow-up with a bit of detail on Syrian governments in the 1950s and '60s
I'm by no means a Syrian expert but I've kept an eye on this conflict for personal reasons. HTS have shown themselves to be a thoroughly professional force for many years, something of great concern when they were more extreme but as the stalemate continued and the fervour of Islamist extremism has somewhat moderated they have drifted in ideology remaining Islamist but focused on removing the regime. This has allowed them to absorb and ally with other groups and perform a delicate balancing act between the various internal and external powers. It was clear that eventually something like this was on the cards but Russia becoming increasingly bogged down in Ukraine hence being unable to provide Assad with air power and the necessary materiel gave the combined opposition the opportunity they needed. Interested external powers now need to give Syrians the breathing space they need plus any support requested to re-establish a functioning state without imposing preconditions. Whatever happens I don't want to lose any more friends there.
Excellent video! One point - Russia is definitely a big looser: they’ve been claiming for years now that Western countries fail protecting their allies, bringing up the rout in Afghanistan, while they were trustworthy partners. Obviously this will have implications in their international relationships with other countries.
Thank you for the presentation Professor. I agree that far more implications will emerge in the coming weeks, months and years. My sincere hope is for Lebanon 🇱🇧 to free itself from constant interference. I went to school with several Lebanese Australians and I just hope that country has the opportunity to flourish without sectarian strife.
Nice work Professor. As a Pole, we have a habit of liking to see our enemy Russia fail. But I feel worried on how Syria will govern in the future. The new government isn't Taliban I hope, but I am worried.
The Polish attitude towards Russia has been contagious in recent years - and rightly so. As for which direction Damascus will head ... I don't think anyone really knows for sure. But Turkey has some influence. When was the last time we could say that in geopolitics? Probably before 1918.
Hopefully there won't be a terrible and long-drawn power vacuum as it is possible that in a prolonged lack of a coherent system further conflict and chaos could take place in and outside the country as there exists many groups. I'd like to hope a democratic future for the people.
The problem was that Assad refused to negotiate with all those terrorists. It is the problem in this region, every state there including US sponsors some terrorist groups. Actually these radical groups are popular and Assad was a secular leader and refused to see Syria for what it was. He was educated in the UK his wife is British. He should have negotiated with Turkey and some Alqida type fractions. Russia was frustrated that he would not sit with Turkey and they were really annoyed by it. Also Iran did not like that Assad tried to have ties with Saudis etc. Syria was in too bad economic situation for him to hold power. Unfortunately, I think the outcome we already witnessed after all these revolutions.
Impressive pace! I’m grateful for the content as it gives me more perspective on what’s happening other than the news and (mostly left-wing) podcasts that I’ve listen to about it.
As an American, I'm absolutely heartbroken to see and hear of the enormous amount of unbelievable amounts of pain and suffering these people have had to endure. How was this not known about or stopped earlier? This is on the level of Hitler's cruelness, ffs...
How would the rise of HTS affect the Iranian support for Hazbollah? Would HTS allow covert transportation of Iranian weapon through its territory? Syria under Assad was more secular than, say, Iran. Would the rise of HTS, which is an offshoot of Al-Qaeda, a known fundamentalist Islamic group, turn Syria into an Islamic country, like Iran or, worse, Afghanistan? The fall of an oppressive regime doesn't necessarily mean the successor would be better. We'll just have to wait and see.
That all this criminality was known to the countries of the world, their intelligence agencies, and institutions, and yet many nations dealt with this tyrant with warmth, appreciation, and respect, recognised him, opened their embassies with him, and accused his opponents of terrorism, not to mention the participation of some countries with their armies to defend him, and the involvement of armed Shia militias with all their might to consolidate his rule and fight his opponents.
Welcome to international diplomacy. That's just the reality of it. You can't always make moral judgements of a regime your first criteria and priority in engaging with other nations diplomatically. That's a luxury few nations can afford. Sometimes you simply have to engage with regimes you don't like for purely strategic reasons - or in hopes of gaining influence by building a relationship (often through trade, aid or arms deals, which can be used as leverage.) That's the reality. You're going to have to accept that diplomacy doesn't function the way you wish it did.
@ Your point is valid in the natural state of diplomacy and its dealings that serve the internal and external policies of any respectable country. Bashar's regime is the greatest evidence of the failed diplomacy you refer to, and the end of such failed, repressive regimes that implement diplomatic policies beneficial only to themselves and their people. Bashar has sought help from all those who had diplomatic relations with him, such as Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and the authoritarian Arab states. Any diplomacy that does not sincerely serve the people inevitably leads to collapse.
Why do you insist on politicizing his statements? If he wishes to state his political leanings, he's perfectly capable of doing so. I only hear him saying that the Assad regime was an extremely problematic regime and strongly allied to Iran.
just two questions Professor. In your humble opinion do you think that the overthrow of the assad regime will stir up trouble in Iran with their citizens rising up too? 2. Do you think this loss of a Russian Ally in the region will have any implication for the war in Ukraine?? Thanks as always for your view on the world affairs
It has no implication on Ukraine, other than it freed some soldiers. Russia will keep its naval base. But it will free supplies, ammo etc that they were providing to Assad.
I see no direct effect on either. Both countries would suffer a humiliation. But that kind of thing matters only to your allies and friends. Iran"s domestic politics don't seem to hinge much on events in the Arab world. Russia seems to have cut it's losses in Syria.
Syria's dictatorship, led by the Assad regime, has a grim war history marked by a brutal civil war that began in 2011. This conflict has led to countless human rights violations, devastating cities, and displacing millions of civilians, leaving a lasting scar on the nation's history.
You didnt mention that in bashaers first 5-10 years he was the darling in the west. Meeting the queen of england and tony blair. The west didnt care he was supposedly torturing and killing his people. They only started bringing this up when they didnt need him and basher never submitted to western demands
Thanks. I actually had some footage of the meeting with the Queen. But I decided to omit it. I felt that I sort of covered it by mentioning that he had been working in Britain and many hoped he would be a reformer.
Типичные западные лицемеры в комментариях: некоторые правительства стран Запада вторглись в суверенную страну со всех сторон, чужими руками свергнули правительство, которое успели со своих недосягаемых демократических высот обвинить во всех грехах, но выражают свою глубокую озабоченность дальнейшей судьбой этой несчастной страны. Ах, как это мило! А, может, санкции введёте по отношению к Израилю, Турции и США? Ах да, простите, для "сильных мира сего" такие меры не полагаются...
This should be renamed “Mideast politics for dummy’s” lol! Thank you for taking the complicated situation in Syria and breaking it down into a short, easy to understand synopsis.
@@JamesKerLindsay Very true sir, the biggest unknown being the intentions of the HTS leader. I won't say the possibility that his aims and intentions have mellowed and developed but it remains to be seen. The other concern for me is the occupation of Golan by Israel and their ongoing expansionism in the region !!
@@covjekapsurda2673 On what ? Firstly, the lol should have indicated I wasn't totally serious. It is on the basis that the new PM is also called Al-Assad, or didn't you get a source on that !!
2:22 "many fled making syrian communities in neighboring states". Oh yes. Germany, France, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Holland, Spain, Italy are all neighboring states. Thank you for that info.
Strategically, 2024 has not been a good year for Iran. Interesting that Russia so easily gave up their Syrian naval base, though I hear there are still some Russian ground troops in Syria. Perhaps stuck there?
It did not, it has to rename it and can keep it. Obviously, none of this was possible if Russia did not get these assurances. Same with Turkey Israel US.
As far as I remember Assad Jr. wanted reform and modernisation. The security types got hold of him and warned him they would only allow small changes. Was he truly in charge?
I'm surprise the Syrian military hasn't improved over them 4 years. With Allies like Russia and Iran. You will think they will give them more better equipment.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised. The same thing happened with the Afghani army in 2021 despite all of the U.S.-provided weapons and training they received. If the people don't want to fight, then all that is irrelevant. Granted, the Taliban seems well equipped now lmao.
@@ItsPabloBruhDont conpare syria to Afghanistan, Syria in the 1970s and was along Egypt seen as the strongest Arab country. There were Syrian instructors in Libya up until Gaddafi fall, in Algeria in the 1960s 1970s, Yemen etc. What happened in Syria is that many generals did not want to fight for Assad. Fight for what? The liberation of Damascus looked like a coup
It wasn't an issue of equipment. The vast majority of Syrian conscripts are Sunni and they really didn't want to fight fellow Sunnis for the sake of Hezbollah, Iran or Russian interests.
The real question is who actually overthrew Assad? HTS were definitely a major factor, but given this is Syria, nothing is as it seems. You still have a wealthy Sunni elite and the instruments of Government are still in place. HTS has little or no Government experience. The options are HTS tries to take over completely and the State fails even more; some deal is done; or last case scenario, Turkey occupies the bits of Syria that Israel doesn't seize and the Kurds allow.
I don't think any deal is done in this case....not with HTS or specially with Turkish back and trained Syrian opposition forces. The only deal that done was between these two groups by the Turks. This was simple seizing a timely opportunity of destroyed Iran influence by Israel and and weakened Russia Ukraine war.....and who was behind this plan? no other than Turkey. "Turkey occupies the bits of Syria that Israel doesn't seize and the Kurds allow" The only thing Israel wants is a weak Syria with no connection with shia Iran. As for the Kurdish militants....In a long run, they are not in a position to allow or not allow anything just because they have the backing of USA. They are only %9 of the population with currently occupying %40 of Syria not to mention of its %85 water, grain and energy resources. I have a feeling that they will loose at least half the land they occupied within coming weeks.
I doubt it would balkanize. Only the Kurds have separatist tendencies. The others - Dryer, Alewites, christians, Arab Shiites and Arab Sunni - dont have such a history.
@Robespierre-lI I agree, I was referring to the various opinions in the news, Israel has invaded, and Turkiye seems to have it's own agenda, so there's something happening.
My interest for geopolitics started back in 2016/17 with the Syrian Civilwar. By this point, the Islamic State had mostly been defeated and Assads' "Tiger Forces" were cleaning up the last pockets of rebellion. I have been expecting a major advance against Idlib for years. I was surprised when the opposite happened.
This is a silly debate that only muslims care about. Historically they are an offshoot of Islam and cannot be understood at all without very substantial references to Islam and islamic history. This is all that matters to everyone else in the world. Muslim policing of which sects fall inside or outside of which definition of islam is an extremely tedious and pointless discussion.
Wonderful video professor! It is soo nice to see people fight for their country and change the brutal regime. Assad deserved to get jailed, but I guess seeing him removed from power is satisfied enough. I am afraid tho, that Syria will become an extremist country. I have never seen a reformed terrorist before and I don't think this terrorist will be the first one.
The Assad regime in Syria, one of the most enduring dynastic dictatorships in modern times, collapsed abruptly in December 2024, marking a turning point in Middle Eastern history. After five decades of rule marked by repression and regional interventions, the Assad family’s grip ended as opposition forces advanced rapidly into Damascus, forcing Bashar al-Assad to flee to Moscow. If the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 marks a turning point in Middle East history, 2024 it is not before 1916. In May 1916 there was a famous Agreement called Skyes - Picot. An agreement between the UK represented by Skyes and France represented by Picot. 'The Sykes-Picot Agreement was a 1916 secret treaty between the United Kingdom and France, with assent from Russia and Italy, to define their mutually agreed spheres of influence and control in an eventual partition of the Ottoman Empire' Let's comeback to the Assad's regime. The tyranny has started in 1971 where Fayed al-Assad took power by a coup. He ruled the county from that year to 2000 where he died. The son, Bachar al-Assad took over. He ruled the country till December 2024. The year the Assad's dynastic tyranny has started wasn't before 1967. In 1967, another bloody and dynastic tyranny was born. It was in West Africa, in Togo. The dictator Eyadema Gnassingbe has ruled the country from 1967 to 2005. At his death that year, hundreds were killed 'Hundreds died in Togolese unrest, UN says' news.un.org/en/story/2005/09/154412 the son took over. He is ruling the county since. In 2024, he changed the constitution in order to further keep power. Now let's look at the following In 2012 a decades old dynastic tyranny born before the Assad's dynastic tyranny of which the UN has said 'Hundreds died in Togolese unrest' was playing the following role among human-gender 'Togo assumes the presidency of the UNSC' www.republicoftogo.com/toutes-les-rubriques/in-english/togo-assumes-the-presidency-of-the-unsc In 2018, a representative of dynastic tyranny born in 1967 on this planet becomes the chief negotiator for countries of Africa, the Caribbean, and the Pacific, in the framework of their cooperation with the European Union OACPS-EU partnership international-partnerships.ec.europa.eu/policies/european-development-policy/oacps-eu-partnership_en In 2019, the Chatham House and Carlos Lopes from Bissau Guinea have proclaimed 'Togo’s Regional Role: Promoting Collective Security in West Africa' ua-cam.com/video/bA6ftHU62W0/v-deo.html In 2024, a few weeks prior to the collapse of the Assad's regime, a representative of the other dynastic tyranny born in 1967 was among those who gather to deliberate on 'Women Transforming the World | World Bank Annual Meetings 2024' SPEAKERS Ajay Banga, President, The World Bank Group Anneliese Dodds, Minister of State for Development and Women and Equalities, United Kingdom Adebayo Olawale Edun, Minister of Finance, Nigeria Sandra Ablamba Johnson, Minister, General Secretary at the Presidency, Togo Moderator: Shakuntala Santhiran, International broadcast journalist In such a cartography where moral and ethical benchmarks seem blurred 'The Rise and Fall of Syria's Dictatorship' isn't somehow a practical manifestation of a fall of reason, the fear of God and a rise of madness since as regards the same West Africa we have seen, heard and felt 'Charles Taylor: The Rise and Fall of Liberia's Warlord' And since 2013 he is in prison somewhere in the UK condemned to 50 years Charles Taylor to serve jail term in the UK ua-cam.com/video/8UzP5t9Vyuc/v-deo.html How long will we continue with such stories that refer all to human sufferings and pains? A few among the many can lead the whole towards a better horizon, a desirable shore. But confusions, inconsistencies. greed, etc defile the whole.
In the Arab world, it happened in many exemple. Gaddafi was preparing his son saif, and Libya was ruled by the Gaddafi family . Same as Iraq under Saddam Hussein. Even Ali Abdullah saleh of Yemen and Mubarak of Egypt
What is amazing to me is that a couple of weeks ago, out of nowhere, there were again reports of unrest in Aleppo... And less than a fortnight later, Assad is gone
This is very special for me, as i only remember an Assad as leader of Syria ... and my memory goes 45 years back in time
That’s the incredible point in all this, isn’t it? This dictatorship lasted half a century! Most Syrians have known nothing apart from the Assads. Let’s just hope the future is far brighter.
@@deepinthewoods8078 what country did you move to?
Pumping these out QUICK, professor. Love seeing you clearly enjoying being an educator on UA-cam.
Thanks so much. It’s a lot of extra work, but I hope it’s worth it! There’s so much news at the moment. 😳
@@JamesKerLindsay Definitely one of those "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen" times
So true!
Waiting until after the fall of Damascus is testament to your instincts in following international News.
This is why the world needs more academics on UA-cam ... And less of the chattering juvenile masses.
@@JamesKerLindsay
Thank you very much! :-)
I was looking forward to this video! Thanks for the excellent overview professor!
Thank you so much, Erik! That is really incredibly kind of you. I appreciate it enormously! 🙏🏻🙂 Very best regards, James
Thank you for being concise and succinct.
Türkiye backs HTS; which the US calls rebranded Al Qaeda. The US backs SDF; which Türkiye calls rebranded PKK. Going to be interesting to see how this all gets worked out.
@@azeturkmenbruh
US supported HTS undercover
😂😂😂@@azeturkmen
@sonuncu203 I'm curious as to why you would think that, considering the fact that America considers HTS an offshoot of Al Qaeedah and they've been at war with al Qaeedah for the past 30 years?
@sonuncu203 HTS are an offshoot of Al Qaeda, so why would they do that?
From the Netherlands: as always a proper analysis of an important event. Thank you so much.
Thank you!
You are the best channel about topics related to geopolitics. I hope nothing but a brighter future to Syrian people as a Turk. I had the chance to meet many of them in the past years.
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it. :-) And I completely agree. Let’s indeed hope they have a brighter future.
Finally a video that explains the whole situation in full detail. Thank you so much!
Thanks. I really hoped it could provide a quick background context to what is happening.
My fear is the power vacuum this creates, and the potential for a humanitarian crisis, the threat to religious minorities such as Christians and Yazidis... The power vacuum isn't only the target of extremists, but also Israel, and Turkey.
I do hope that Syrian refugees from the civil war can return to a safe homeland.
It's going to be chaos
Well, there's already some videos from pro-Palestine telegram channels that allegedly HTS is killing Alawites.
@@JoBlakeLisbon yea as long as the us and israel is involved
As long as the different religious groups keep on fighting each other and wanting to be the dominating new power, the country will not see peace and prosperity.
Prof, James ker-Lindsay I found more helpful information and enjoying to watched your video, you put alot of hardwork for preparing excellent analysis, much appreciated you.
Thank you so much. There's a lot of focus on the current events. I hoped it would be useful to look at the history leading up to the regime's overthrow.
Thank you for explaining the situation with clarity. I had no idea what was going on
As always a great video.
Thank you Professor, I will have to watch this twice more to catch it all, and then looking forward the follow on video Cheers!
It seems very unlikely that we're about to witness a period of stability.
@@proximacentaur1654 was there ever a period of stability would be terrible for there leaders because the people will start looking at the mess there leaders have made instead of using the west and isreal as an excuse
It only gonna be even worse
So much happening around the world thank you professor for taking the time to research and make so many videos as things around the world change
Finally subscribed. Your analysis is spot on, and I look forward to more.
Thank you very much! A very warm welcome. :-)
Very glad that the algorithm served me this video. I have only the most basic of knowledge about Syria so I'm always glad for a new reliable source of information. Thanks!
Thanks so much. And a very warm welcome to the channel. :-)
Long time no see, Professor! Thank you for returning to my feed :)
You are excellent 👏 so clear. Liked the clarity of maps, and chronology thank you !
These two-per-week videos are fantastic!! Hope they continue.
After this I really think a lot of experts in Middle east studies should start doing serious self-reflection. Just in this year we were told that Gaza would be Israel's Vietnam, Hezbollah would be this horrific force which would unleash hell on Israel and even harder than Hamas to defeat, and of course, the prediction that Assad is consolidated. Not to mention the ideas about the Islamic republic's offensive and defensive military capabilities being proven wrong several times.
And now we are in for another round of surprise when the moderate rebels are not that moderate at all
@@FOLIPE that would not be as much of a surprise. Most experts are still waiting and seeing
Who predicted any of that? No mainstream expert.
Gaza has not been a military victory for Israel. Just a Westen aided slaughter of civilians. You appear unaware of Hamas's murky relationship Israel. They are not the enemy as portrayed but ally of sorts.
@@FOLIPE Well, every single Westen analyst I have seen is talking about their moderate nature with a healthy does of skepticism. So no, I don't think it would be that surprising if it happens and it definitely won't be damaging to the reputation of said experts since they would be right.
In this case they are just speculating from the fact that the HTS originates from extremism, but the cases I have mentioned are all related to the axis of resistance so I speculate there might be more to this issue than the experts simply making mistakes.
"Dynastic dictatorship" sounds like a kingdom that just doesn't want to admit it's a hereditary monarchy.
Thanks for the video. Even if i disagree with you a lot of the time, you always provide good background and insight into the conflicts in the world of today. Keep it up!
Greetings from Serbia, detailed and well put together video as always
Hvala puno! And warmest greetings back. :-)
Wrong map of Serbia tho.
-1
Noope, its correct, deal with it.
Btw csn you pls make a video about shitshow going on in serbia last 30days plus lithium scandals? @@JamesKerLindsay
Not according to the United nations its not@@lavordavor7738
The world has been keeping you busy lately, professor. Great video, as always!
Thanks so much! Yes, indeed. There’s certainly a lot going on, isn’t there!?
Thank you for your clear and concise explanation of the old and then new Syria. I have learnt and understand more listening to your explanation. 👍
Getting a Professor Ker-Lindsay video notification on Tuesday was not on my 2024 bingo list.
But I'm all in for it 💪
Thanks so much! Yes, I’m trying to do two videos a week now. There’s a lot going on! I also want to use the Tuesday videos to look at topics that don’t fit the Friday videos so well, such as videos more focused on history.
I still remember the Western media speculation, when he came to power, about how his British education and experiences (and his spouse's) would make Bashar more open to democratizing Syria. Guess we all now know how that turned out.
Thanks. I remember that as well.
Sometimes wishful thinking prevails in the media. It's probably for the best that there is some of that from time to time. It helps to turn down the volume in geopolitical conflicts and tensions. But, yes, they were very, very wrong.
I think this does raise the question of WHY this is so often the case in the Arab world. They just can't seem to move away from autocracy and brutality. A similar thing can be said about Russia (although it is a slightly different historical and cultural picture there.)
It will be interesting to see how this will affect Russia's ability to support regimes in Africa as Syria was the halfway point between Russia and Africa for Russia's supply efforts.
Bedankt
Thank you so much! That’s very kind and much appreciated. Very best regards, James
@@JamesKerLindsay thanks for the great content!
Really useful video. Glad I’ve found your channel. Thanks.
Thanks for this history. Good to know.
I am especially looking for your analysis of the ground situation with the various groups, and your assessment of the various ways you think things will go forward.
I'm sure you plan to do the video, and you just needed to setup the backstory with this current video, so the next one can start where this one leaves off.
Looking fwd to it! All the best!
Thanks so much, Vincent. Yes, I’m working on it now. I hope to post it tomorrow evening.
Thanks prof appriciated
I was really encouraged by Abu Mohammad al-Julani's remarks, 🤞
Words are the easiest part & most unreliable part.
A lot of people were also encouraged when the Shah fell, and when Kadaffi was removed, and when Mubarak quit, and when Saddam lost, and when Arafat died, and when.... the list goes on and will probably go on forever 😮💨😮💨
As a Geopolitical outlookers Professor James where you expecting these toppling of Assad dynasty could anyway happened or possible before the Opposition rebels launched the shocked offensive on 27th.? For me it's unprecedented move. Thanks prof.
Thanks. This has definitely been one of the most unexpected developments in recent years! It had seemed that the war was all but over. The fact that Assad was being slowly welcomed back into international forums seemed to suggest that even the Arab states didn't expect this. This was certainly a "Blimey!" on Sunday morning when I woke up!
@JamesKerLindsay Nice analysis got it, prof James, Thank you very very much.
Very nicely done video professor..
Great video Professor.
The Assad dynasty and regime crumbling in two weeks after 50+ years of brutality, 13 of those in a multi-act civil war. Nobody saw it coming, yet it makes so much sense. Aren’t international affairs just like this?
To be fair, many saw it coming .... But it took so much longer than expected (thanks to Russia and Iran, largely)
Assad’s regime would’ve fallen Since 2013 had the international community helped like they did in Libya 2011 or Kosovo 1999. Russia and Iran saved him back then, and since that time he became a subordinate warlord proxy to Russia and iran who kept his totalitarian ways and lost his pre 2011 independance, his very survival depended on Russia and Iran. Once weakened, Assad was directly toppled, not even his army backed him, why would fight ? What to fight for ? A dictator that took one of the greatest middle eastern countries to its ruins ? Who transformed a once great promising country to a personalistic totalitarian regime in 1970, among the likes of Saddam Gaddafi or Kim ? They saw no reason, rebels promised amnesty if surrender, most were like «alr then, let’s get rid of him » so much so that, the battle of Damascus looked like a de facto coup.
Pretty disappointed with the lack of attention given to the brutality of the Hafez Assad regime as he purged hundreds of thousands of people and committed so many human rights violations. While I understand that it is not fair to blindly follow Western-centric ideologies and criticize him solely because he opposed the West, he would continuously play both sides of the cause without the interest of anyone but himself and his tyrannical rule. Maybe a video on that would be helpful to your viewers.
Great explanation. I’ve followed international politics for decades and was totally surprised by these turn of events. Assad’s allies hung him out to dry but then they have their own problems.
Embraced Islam??? It was forcefully converted like many other countries.
Christianity was spread with roses and smiles?
X: doubt
@EternalKhann yes but currently Christians aren’t as barbarians as ya all
@@anilsaini7295 Ignorance is the worst illness wich strike to everyone all the time !!!
Libya 2.0 or Afghanistan 2.0
Pick your poison. With or without Assad, this place is a mess.
Or Iraq 2.0.
Or Yemen 2.0
Probably not Yugoslavia 2.0
China after 1 of their Civil Wars is also a potential predecessor.
Or maybe, just like Libya followed its own trajectory based on its specific circumstances, instead of following an exact example, so Syria will follow its own trajectory
Thanks for all the information. I was wondering about this new development in Syria. 🤔
Thanks. I hope to take a deeper look at current events, and possible future directions, in my next video in a few days.
From a Turkish viewpoint, I am also pretty interested to see how the Syrian nation function with Assad now gone. If they become uncontrollable, it will be a problem. I prefer to convert northeastern Syria into an autonomous zone under Syrian control, if the SDF promises to break away from PKK.
At some point, Turkey is going to have to take a leadership role in actually solving the endless problem of the missing Kurdish nation. Simply pretending the problem does not exist is never going to work - and that's exactly how Erdogan and his friends wish to proceed.
I realize it is a sensitive issue ... but here we are once again. The Kurds are just too large a group to be subsumed into other countries. They aren't the CIrcassians or Assyrians.
@@Robespierre-lI True, but Türkish government follows as the Ottoman Empires footsteps. Therefore we want to live in peace together and Türkiye would not allow any Kurdish country with a terrorism past.
Last year when Syria's financial and economic management worsened, so many people in Assad's heartlands as well those working in Syria's state-owned institutions were seeing their living standards declining. No surprise to see even pro-Assad folks withdrew their support for Bashar when food and financial security weren't guaranteed anymore.
Will be really interesting to see how these Jihadis (even with Turkey's help) can forge a working economy.
Please do a video on the 80th anniversary of United Nations sometime next year.
🇺🇳
Thanks. A brilliant suggestion!
If Trump has his way this will be an obituary.
The naval base at Tartus and the airbase at Khmeimim are more valuable to Russia than Bashar Al Assad and his 2 to 3 billion USD in stolen wealth. Would the Russians trade Assad for bases? Also the HTS coalition and the Kurds are traditional enemies. Is Al Jolani the Salahaddin type figure that can unite the forces of modern Syria?
One other thing that hasn't really been discussed is the devastation of Syria's economy. The Syrian economy is gone.
Syrian here, I hope those bases will get out, I hope the community 🇪🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 and regional actors 🇸🇦🇹🇷 could help Syria and make its transition easier and help us rebuild the country, a bit like post WW2 Germany Italy or Japan. The international community failed Syria in 2013, when, despite Obama’s red line speech, no concrete action was taken. We know what happened later on. I hope Syria can get out of its devastation, and make a come back as a normal country. US would need to get Syria out of this list of state sponsor of terror + out sanctions that were made against the Assad regime, and rebuild ties that hopefully will be good ! Assad had absolute control over all state institutions. Like Gaddafi, Saddam or Kim. Once he has fallen, it’s like the states institutions made a reset. It’s a brand new Syria, it’s in everyone interests to see it succeed. An exemple to countries hostile to the international community, that are dictatorships.
@suleyman8696 that would be ideal. However, the Israelis have hit Syria more than 430 times in the last 48 hours. The Israelis want Syria to stay destroyed. I'm sorry for my pessimism
@@MrMordechaiAnilevich Actually, the Israelis are taking out weapons that were ONLY used to suppress the Syrian people since 1982. Removing these weapons from Syria means a lot less violence and bloodshed during the transition and for Israel, a lot less potential for a conflict that would get Syria destroyed as a result.
@@suleyman8696 Unless the future gov can figure out a way to get both the Russians and the American Israelis out, the bases are probably going to stay for some time.
It's not good for the optics if this future gov appears to be appeasing the American Israelis.
Excellent James! You produce content so fast nowadays! I will listen to this whilst making the animations for my channel! :)
Good luck! :-) I’ve never been able to get the hang of mapping and animations, unfortunately.
Some aspects you might want to cover in your next video on this topic are how the Syrian refugee crisis reshaped European politics (eg Brexit, etc) and the irony of how the Al Aqsa flood didn't wipe out Israel as intended, but rather is on course to wipe out the axis of resistance and possibly the hub of that axis.
New subscriber. Great video.
Thank you so much. A very warm welcome!
Thanks for bringing up the actual situation in Syria before the start of the Assad dynasty. Nothing to write home about, so one wonders what kind of "democracy" could arise now. There is no precedent. It would be worthwhile to do a follow-up with a bit of detail on Syrian governments in the 1950s and '60s
Thank you☆
thank you
Often, the replacement is worse. We will see.
I'm by no means a Syrian expert but I've kept an eye on this conflict for personal reasons. HTS have shown themselves to be a thoroughly professional force for many years, something of great concern when they were more extreme but as the stalemate continued and the fervour of Islamist extremism has somewhat moderated they have drifted in ideology remaining Islamist but focused on removing the regime. This has allowed them to absorb and ally with other groups and perform a delicate balancing act between the various internal and external powers. It was clear that eventually something like this was on the cards but Russia becoming increasingly bogged down in Ukraine hence being unable to provide Assad with air power and the necessary materiel gave the combined opposition the opportunity they needed.
Interested external powers now need to give Syrians the breathing space they need plus any support requested to re-establish a functioning state without imposing preconditions.
Whatever happens I don't want to lose any more friends there.
Excellent video! One point - Russia is definitely a big looser: they’ve been claiming for years now that Western countries fail protecting their allies, bringing up the rout in Afghanistan, while they were trustworthy partners. Obviously this will have implications in their international relationships with other countries.
Thanks so much! Great point. I will be doing a follow up video soon looking at the broader issues that have arisen from the fall of the Assad regime.
As a football manager once said, An Era must surely come to an end. And it did. Hopefully there will be a peaceful transition.
Thank you for the presentation Professor. I agree that far more implications will emerge in the coming weeks, months and years.
My sincere hope is for Lebanon 🇱🇧 to free itself from constant interference. I went to school with several Lebanese Australians and I just hope that country has the opportunity to flourish without sectarian strife.
Bashar Al-Assad and his family can truthfully say now about Syria, "Après Nous, Le Déluge!"
Interesting video
Nice work Professor. As a Pole, we have a habit of liking to see our enemy Russia fail. But I feel worried on how Syria will govern in the future. The new government isn't Taliban I hope, but I am worried.
The Polish attitude towards Russia has been contagious in recent years - and rightly so.
As for which direction Damascus will head ... I don't think anyone really knows for sure. But Turkey has some influence. When was the last time we could say that in geopolitics? Probably before 1918.
Hopefully there won't be a terrible and long-drawn power vacuum as it is possible that in a prolonged lack of a coherent system further conflict and chaos could take place in and outside the country as there exists many groups. I'd like to hope a democratic future for the people.
The problem was that Assad refused to negotiate with all those terrorists. It is the problem in this region, every state there including US sponsors some terrorist groups. Actually these radical groups are popular and Assad was a secular leader and refused to see Syria for what it was. He was educated in the UK his wife is British. He should have negotiated with Turkey and some Alqida type fractions. Russia was frustrated that he would not sit with Turkey and they were really annoyed by it. Also Iran did not like that Assad tried to have ties with Saudis etc. Syria was in too bad economic situation for him to hold power. Unfortunately, I think the outcome we already witnessed after all these revolutions.
Impressive pace! I’m grateful for the content as it gives me more perspective on what’s happening other than the news and (mostly left-wing) podcasts that I’ve listen to about it.
Bashar, the “British trained Doctor”… As if it were a symbol of virtue…
As an American, I'm absolutely heartbroken to see and hear of the enormous amount of unbelievable amounts of pain and suffering these people have had to endure. How was this not known about or stopped earlier? This is on the level of Hitler's cruelness, ffs...
It did not “embrace” Islam in the 7th century. Like all Muslim conquests, you either embraced it or you died.
This is semantics. The reality is that people would have had all kinds of varied responses to the Islamic conquest.
The Syrian regime issue was not being against United States, but being against Israel
How would the rise of HTS affect the Iranian support for Hazbollah? Would HTS allow covert transportation of Iranian weapon through its territory?
Syria under Assad was more secular than, say, Iran. Would the rise of HTS, which is an offshoot of Al-Qaeda, a known fundamentalist Islamic group, turn Syria into an Islamic country, like Iran or, worse, Afghanistan? The fall of an oppressive regime doesn't necessarily mean the successor would be better. We'll just have to wait and see.
That all this criminality was known to the countries of the world, their intelligence agencies, and institutions, and yet many nations dealt with this tyrant with warmth, appreciation, and respect, recognised him, opened their embassies with him, and accused his opponents of terrorism, not to mention the participation of some countries with their armies to defend him, and the involvement of armed Shia militias with all their might to consolidate his rule and fight his opponents.
Welcome to international diplomacy. That's just the reality of it. You can't always make moral judgements of a regime your first criteria and priority in engaging with other nations diplomatically. That's a luxury few nations can afford. Sometimes you simply have to engage with regimes you don't like for purely strategic reasons - or in hopes of gaining influence by building a relationship (often through trade, aid or arms deals, which can be used as leverage.)
That's the reality. You're going to have to accept that diplomacy doesn't function the way you wish it did.
@ Your point is valid in the natural state of diplomacy and its dealings that serve the internal and external policies of any respectable country. Bashar's regime is the greatest evidence of the failed diplomacy you refer to, and the end of such failed, repressive regimes that implement diplomatic policies beneficial only to themselves and their people. Bashar has sought help from all those who had diplomatic relations with him, such as Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and the authoritarian Arab states. Any diplomacy that does not sincerely serve the people inevitably leads to collapse.
I admire the subtlety of Professor's support of Israel. Anyway, great video as always
The only sane country to support in a wretched neighborhood
Why do you insist on politicizing his statements? If he wishes to state his political leanings, he's perfectly capable of doing so.
I only hear him saying that the Assad regime was an extremely problematic regime and strongly allied to Iran.
just two questions Professor. In your humble opinion do you think that the overthrow of the assad regime will stir up trouble in Iran with their citizens rising up too? 2. Do you think this loss of a Russian Ally in the region will have any implication for the war in Ukraine?? Thanks as always for your view on the world affairs
It has no implication on Ukraine, other than it freed some soldiers. Russia will keep its naval base. But it will free supplies, ammo etc that they were providing to Assad.
I see no direct effect on either. Both countries would suffer a humiliation. But that kind of thing matters only to your allies and friends.
Iran"s domestic politics don't seem to hinge much on events in the Arab world.
Russia seems to have cut it's losses in Syria.
Syria's dictatorship, led by the Assad regime, has a grim war history marked by a brutal civil war that began in 2011. This conflict has led to countless human rights violations, devastating cities, and displacing millions of civilians, leaving a lasting scar on the nation's history.
You didnt mention that in bashaers first 5-10 years he was the darling in the west. Meeting the queen of england and tony blair. The west didnt care he was supposedly torturing and killing his people. They only started bringing this up when they didnt need him and basher never submitted to western demands
Thanks. I actually had some footage of the meeting with the Queen. But I decided to omit it. I felt that I sort of covered it by mentioning that he had been working in Britain and many hoped he would be a reformer.
Типичные западные лицемеры в комментариях: некоторые правительства стран Запада вторглись в суверенную страну со всех сторон, чужими руками свергнули правительство, которое успели со своих недосягаемых демократических высот обвинить во всех грехах, но выражают свою глубокую озабоченность дальнейшей судьбой этой несчастной страны. Ах, как это мило! А, может, санкции введёте по отношению к Израилю, Турции и США? Ах да, простите, для "сильных мира сего" такие меры не полагаются...
This should be renamed “Mideast politics for dummy’s” lol! Thank you for taking the complicated situation in Syria and breaking it down into a short, easy to understand synopsis.
Haha! Thanks, I think!? 🙂
Inaccurate description of Syrian civil war. Strange there was little discussion of outside forces.
I fear for the local Christians in Syria. Please pray for them.❤
Has it actually fallen because the new Prime Minister might be a cousin lol
Very good point. But I think it is safe to say that it has gone. It’s what comes next that’s the big question now!?
@@JamesKerLindsay Very true sir, the biggest unknown being the intentions of the HTS leader. I won't say the possibility that his aims and intentions have mellowed and developed but it remains to be seen. The other concern for me is the occupation of Golan by Israel and their ongoing expansionism in the region !!
can you give source on that
@@covjekapsurda2673 On what ? Firstly, the lol should have indicated I wasn't totally serious. It is on the basis that the new PM is also called Al-Assad, or didn't you get a source on that !!
A lot of words, and nothing to say. The big conclusion is that "this will change the middle east." Thnaks
Brilliant depiction
2:22 "many fled making syrian communities in neighboring states". Oh yes. Germany, France, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Holland, Spain, Italy are all neighboring states. Thank you for that info.
James do you do "buy me a coffee?"if so can you put a link so we can give you a wee Xmas present..
Strategically, 2024 has not been a good year for Iran. Interesting that Russia so easily gave up their Syrian naval base, though I hear there are still some Russian ground troops in Syria. Perhaps stuck there?
It did not, it has to rename it and can keep it. Obviously, none of this was possible if Russia did not get these assurances. Same with Turkey Israel US.
@@olivka7560where was that reported? I have not seen these claims anywhere else
Wasn't this the plan since 01
Hope that Syria is inclusive with real human rights
As far as I remember Assad Jr. wanted reform and modernisation. The security types got hold of him and warned him they would only allow small changes.
Was he truly in charge?
I'm surprise the Syrian military hasn't improved over them 4 years. With Allies like Russia and Iran. You will think they will give them more better equipment.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised. The same thing happened with the Afghani army in 2021 despite all of the U.S.-provided weapons and training they received. If the people don't want to fight, then all that is irrelevant. Granted, the Taliban seems well equipped now lmao.
@@ItsPabloBruhDont conpare syria to Afghanistan, Syria in the 1970s and was along Egypt seen as the strongest Arab country. There were Syrian instructors in Libya up until Gaddafi fall, in Algeria in the 1960s 1970s, Yemen etc. What happened in Syria is that many generals did not want to fight for Assad. Fight for what? The liberation of Damascus looked like a coup
It wasn't an issue of equipment. The vast majority of Syrian conscripts are Sunni and they really didn't want to fight fellow Sunnis for the sake of Hezbollah, Iran or Russian interests.
The real question is who actually overthrew Assad? HTS were definitely a major factor, but given this is Syria, nothing is as it seems. You still have a wealthy Sunni elite and the instruments of Government are still in place. HTS has little or no Government experience. The options are HTS tries to take over completely and the State fails even more; some deal is done; or last case scenario, Turkey occupies the bits of Syria that Israel doesn't seize and the Kurds allow.
I don't think any deal is done in this case....not with HTS or specially with Turkish back and trained Syrian opposition forces. The only deal that done was between these two groups by the Turks. This was simple seizing a timely opportunity of destroyed Iran influence by Israel and and weakened Russia Ukraine war.....and who was behind this plan? no other than Turkey. "Turkey occupies the bits of Syria that Israel doesn't seize and the Kurds allow" The only thing Israel wants is a weak Syria with no connection with shia Iran. As for the Kurdish militants....In a long run, they are not in a position to allow or not allow anything just because they have the backing of USA. They are only %9 of the population with currently occupying %40 of Syria not to mention of its %85 water, grain and energy resources. I have a feeling that they will loose at least half the land they occupied within coming weeks.
you are funny... collapsed in space of few weeks you said?...man do you know how long the war was going?
There's talk of Syria coming to an end, Syria as a country.
Situation certainly seems shockingly grave.
I doubt it would balkanize. Only the Kurds have separatist tendencies. The others - Dryer, Alewites, christians, Arab Shiites and Arab Sunni - dont have such a history.
@Robespierre-lI I agree, I was referring to the various opinions in the news, Israel has invaded, and Turkiye seems to have it's own agenda, so there's something happening.
HTS, SNA and SDF need to work together in order to form a stable and peaceful democratic secular government for all Syrian peoples.
What happens if Assad comes back?
That's what I was thinking also if syria turns upside down and bashar makes a comeback considering he's still relatively young at 59.
He won't live to tell about it. Turkey will send its goons to take care of him
My interest for geopolitics started back in 2016/17 with the Syrian Civilwar. By this point, the Islamic State had mostly been defeated and Assads' "Tiger Forces" were cleaning up the last pockets of rebellion. I have been expecting a major advance against Idlib for years. I was surprised when the opposite happened.
Alawites are not Muslims.
They drink alcohol & the Women don't wear the Hijab.
Alawites consider themselves to be Muslim.
This is a silly debate that only muslims care about. Historically they are an offshoot of Islam and cannot be understood at all without very substantial references to Islam and islamic history. This is all that matters to everyone else in the world.
Muslim policing of which sects fall inside or outside of which definition of islam is an extremely tedious and pointless discussion.
Wonderful video professor! It is soo nice to see people fight for their country and change the brutal regime. Assad deserved to get jailed, but I guess seeing him removed from power is satisfied enough. I am afraid tho, that Syria will become an extremist country. I have never seen a reformed terrorist before and I don't think this terrorist will be the first one.
Qatar gas pipeline for EU market, which was stopped by Assad- will now go forward. Construction was frozen near USA base in Jordan.
considering how assad survived during the arab spring i think turkey has made a deal with the syrian military which is why it collapsed so fast.
At last, a considered look at the Syrian situation.😊
The Assad regime in Syria, one of the most enduring dynastic dictatorships in modern times, collapsed abruptly in December 2024, marking a turning point in Middle Eastern history. After five decades of rule marked by repression and regional interventions, the Assad family’s grip ended as opposition forces advanced rapidly into Damascus, forcing Bashar al-Assad to flee to Moscow.
If the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 marks a turning point in Middle East history, 2024 it is not before 1916.
In May 1916 there was a famous Agreement called Skyes - Picot.
An agreement between the UK represented by Skyes and France represented by Picot.
'The Sykes-Picot Agreement was a 1916 secret treaty between the United Kingdom and France, with assent from Russia and Italy, to define their mutually agreed spheres of influence and control in an eventual partition of the Ottoman Empire'
Let's comeback to the Assad's regime. The tyranny has started in 1971 where Fayed al-Assad took power by a coup. He ruled the county from that year to 2000 where he died. The son, Bachar al-Assad took over. He ruled the country till December 2024.
The year the Assad's dynastic tyranny has started wasn't before 1967.
In 1967, another bloody and dynastic tyranny was born. It was in West Africa, in Togo. The dictator Eyadema Gnassingbe has ruled the country from 1967 to 2005. At his death that year, hundreds were killed 'Hundreds died in Togolese unrest, UN says'
news.un.org/en/story/2005/09/154412
the son took over. He is ruling the county since. In 2024, he changed the constitution in order to further keep power.
Now let's look at the following
In 2012 a decades old dynastic tyranny born before the Assad's dynastic tyranny of which the UN has said 'Hundreds died in Togolese unrest' was playing the following role among human-gender 'Togo assumes the presidency of the UNSC'
www.republicoftogo.com/toutes-les-rubriques/in-english/togo-assumes-the-presidency-of-the-unsc
In 2018, a representative of dynastic tyranny born in 1967 on this planet becomes the chief negotiator for countries of Africa, the Caribbean, and the Pacific, in the framework of their cooperation with the European Union
OACPS-EU partnership
international-partnerships.ec.europa.eu/policies/european-development-policy/oacps-eu-partnership_en
In 2019, the Chatham House and Carlos Lopes from Bissau Guinea have proclaimed 'Togo’s Regional Role: Promoting Collective Security in West Africa'
ua-cam.com/video/bA6ftHU62W0/v-deo.html
In 2024, a few weeks prior to the collapse of the Assad's regime, a representative of the other dynastic tyranny born in 1967 was among those who gather to deliberate on 'Women Transforming the World | World Bank Annual Meetings 2024'
SPEAKERS
Ajay Banga, President, The World Bank Group
Anneliese Dodds, Minister of State for Development and Women and Equalities, United Kingdom
Adebayo Olawale Edun, Minister of Finance, Nigeria
Sandra Ablamba Johnson, Minister, General Secretary at the Presidency, Togo
Moderator: Shakuntala Santhiran, International broadcast journalist
In such a cartography where moral and ethical benchmarks seem blurred 'The Rise and Fall of Syria's Dictatorship' isn't somehow a practical manifestation of a fall of reason, the fear of God and a rise of madness since as regards the same West Africa we have seen, heard and felt 'Charles Taylor: The Rise and Fall of Liberia's Warlord'
And since 2013 he is in prison somewhere in the UK condemned to 50 years
Charles Taylor to serve jail term in the UK
ua-cam.com/video/8UzP5t9Vyuc/v-deo.html
How long will we continue with such stories that refer all to human sufferings and pains?
A few among the many can lead the whole towards a better horizon, a desirable shore. But confusions, inconsistencies. greed, etc defile the whole.
In the Arab world, it happened in many exemple. Gaddafi was preparing his son saif, and Libya was ruled by the Gaddafi family . Same as Iraq under Saddam Hussein. Even Ali Abdullah saleh of Yemen and Mubarak of Egypt