Very good and objective analysis from George Barros; only thing to pick up on is that Ukraine didn't apply NATO combined arms methods because it couldn't, only having ~10% of its force equipped and trained that way, and having nothing like the air supremacy that NATO will always enjoy.
Don't forget that there was no real obstacle for the USA to provide Ukraine the long-range ballistic ATACMS missiles in September-October 2022. Remember that the US Army used 414 ATACMS missiles in 2003 on Iraq (Iraq! Not Russia or China. Besides tomahawks and other bombs). No obstacle. Had the USA supplied only 80 ATACMS, Ukraine would cut all Z logistics and would allow the Z to fortify and mine everything for 9 months. The war could be won just in 2022.
No exactly. Just listen carefully to what he said. He explicitly mentioned that NATO doctrine and planning for the counter offensive probed to be wrong!
Continue to support Ukraine maximally! Thanks for your great coverage! An American whose early years encompassed WWII and the Cold War…now Putin! Slava Ukrainian!🇺🇦🇬🇧🇺🇸
While missing Dom today, Francis is superb, and the guest is intimate in his knowledge of the war progress. Dom has often told us of those tank and armour attacks in tight formations on open foods. I don't agree the counter offensive failed. It is one of many to come.
Ukraine managed to sustain positive loss ratio throughout the counter offensive. That alone is impressive - compare it to russia's catastrophic losses in Amdriivka
Excellent assessment. If only small minded politicians could see the bigger picture, not just for Ukraine but for the world. We are becoming too small of a world for bullies and psychopaths to be given free reign to brutalize others into submission. We need a world where cooperation and collaboration is encouraged where dissenting voices are heard and problems are addressed rather than suppressed.
@@tad27612TROLL INCOMING The reason they resort to emojis is their failure to face reality. What reality? The blood on Krremlin's hands for attempted genocide with unspeakable atrocities. Unspeakable, ergo, their stupid, sneering emojis. And when they do resort to verbal language, what do they do? They lie.
A well timed hit piece from Time. Schuster is a hack. Also, have been saying the same thing about Western armor. Our reaction when some was predictably lost deterred Ukraine from using them often full stop. Making them useless.
More quality journalism from the team. Really pleased to hear that support for the channel has not diminished in light of recent developments in Israel. Broadening the geopolitical analysis to include developments in the middle east, east Asia and the far east I welcome because of course it all links up in so many ways.
The Time article (written by a Russian who left Russia quite a while ago) parrots talking points expressed by Arestovych in recent weeks. Arestovych left (or was fired) his earlier position as an advisor to the Office of the President a long time ago, but I think he is the anonymous source of the quotes in Time. Arestovych has acknowledged that he is running against Zelensky for the presidency. Arestovych is very chummy with Russian opposition oligarchs. He refers to them as "the elites," which he means as a compliment (not a criticism).
The counteroffensive had its hands tied behind its back from the beginning with the lack of air support, ATACMs and other long range weaponry and also the volume of ammo needed. The roughly dozen or so helicopters destroyed by the ATACMS in Berdiansk and Luhansk were the Russian deterrents that slowed down the counteroffensive earlier. The counteroffensive is slow, but keeps going, the Ukrainian crossings over the Dnipro in Kherson could become interesting, and then there is the relentless pounding of Crimea which forced out the Black Sea Fleet and now that peninsula is vulnerable. Ukraine will prevail, but the West needs to make the decision to give Ukraine what it needs now to win this once and for all. Slava Ukraini!
Ukraine has done a phenomenal job and continues to innovate and surprise. President Zelenskyy has done as much as anyone could ask of a leader in a time of war. Ukrainians have sacrificed innumerable hardships and it is wholly their decision on whether they want to continue Ukraine is not failing and is in a stronger position than it was last year and will be in an even stronger one in 2024 Russia is in a very bad position and as the war drags on the business elite are becoming anxious. Internal Russian politics is in turmoil and with oil plants etc being targeted they are increasingly restless The winter will be harsh on troops but more on Russian than Ukrainians LRW is worrying Russia and Russia is constantly mentioning negotiations so it's doubtful they want to continue
Selenski was elected on a peace platform. That he would honour the Minsk agreements. Soon as he was elected he did a about turn. He lied to his own people. Hevwas seduced by american neocons that promised him the world. Now half of Ukrainian people have fled never to come back and Ukraine is being systematically destroyed. Selenski has been a absolute total disarster for the Ukrainian people !
😂😂😂 Zelensky has done more to defeat Ukraine. He knows zero about military strategy. He's made nothing but mistakes in 2023. His advisors are lining up to run up against him.
@@tad27612that's why he delegates to people who DO know military strategy, in true democratic fashion. He does not need to be the expert, unlike a vertical of power system. So his personal military expertise is a moot point.
Only a personally strong man could say he's done, he cares about his military, and it's wisest to abandon his original plan. That is what a strong leader would do. But, a strong man would not have set himself up as being in charge in the first place. A strong man would never have sent his troops over the line in the first place. Strong men are honest, they don't blameshift, they take personal responsibility even when it hurts their ego. Putin is simply not a strong man in himself!
@@thinker646 Complete nonsense. He shows up in Avdivka and tells the commander not one step backwards which will result in a disaster in Avdivka. He goes to Kherson and tells the commanders to cross the Dneiper. He's a lot like Hitler in World War II. He has drug addiction problems and lives in a fantasy land.
Exceptional journalism and analysis, as expected. Two things especially stood out to me from George Barros' analysis: 1) The training provided by the US, Germany (and/or other NATO forces) lost efficacy because it largely focused on theory rather than integrating the lived experience of Ukrainiain soldiers who know the enemy they've been facing; and, 2) the delay in providing sufficient weaponry to Ukraine's forces leaves them feeling unable to risk losing equipment, even for potentially great gains, because we've instilled a feeling of scarcity. How much better if they can begin fighting with the assurance that they will have enough. Now is when we need to recognize the strengths of Ukrainian soldiers and stand strong with them.
I think George has provided one of the best analysis about the counteroffensive and the war I have heard. I hope our politicians in Europe will wake up and acknowledge the current situation before it's too late. And a lot more should be done to counter the online kremlin propaganda which presents a serious security risk to every country.
I really enjoyed this episode. I am alarmed though by the TIME article given the magazines influence, readership and reputation. I wonder how such poor journalism has been allowed for publication? Has the aggressor somehow influenced the editors? It just seems incongruous.
The impact of the war on the Russian economy seems to be absent from the analyses. Russia only produces gas and oil. The infrastructure relies on western technology and maintenance is difficult. The reduction in production capacity has been hidden by the drop in exports due to sanctions but soon the situation will been so bad that it will influence exports to countries that have no sanctions.
I think the Ukraine Counter Offensive has "slowed" NOT "stalled or stopped" and that the to-ing and throwing over the decision re Cluster Bombs, receipt of Air Support by way of F16's and the extensive and numerous minefields.
US not trying hard enough and Europe still fast asleep. It now seems inevitable that Putin will take whatever he thinks is the next aggressive towards Europe and people will start bemoaning their lack of support for Ukraine in the past year and a half.
I don't know anyone who reads Time Magazine, so I would not call it influencial. I believe that there are youtube creators with more influence. Many are not shocked that a media outlet over used "unnamed sources".
Time magazine has been a rag for yonks. Ignore them. This cover story is more about attention to Time than whatchcallyer journalism, as Francis' critiques exemplify.
And it’s been decades since Americans considered Time prestigious. It went bankrupt decades ago and their main money maker is archival images. Today, each issue is usually one “feature article,” one secondary story and then the rest is ads and “sponsored content” (IE, advertising disguised as content).
The Simon Shuster of TIME is a Moscow based, in 2014 he celebrated the Crimea annexation: "Just paid for a coffee in Russian rubles. Welcome to the new Crimea, like it or not", 16 March 2014, 1.5 days before the annexation was complet. In February 2014, when Russian and Yanukovich spetsnaz were killing people in Kyiv, Shuster expressed his waiting for that Ukraine would not be alive for too long. Then he many times argued to not provide help for Ukraine since 2014.
I don't understand how people can do combined arms without fighter jets. Fighting the Nato way assumes air superiority or at least equality, by my reckoning. Why do people persist in saying they are "failing" if they do not do combined arms, when they have few airplanes and nothing equal to what the Russians have. Can we not accept that they have achieved amazing things -- like sinking Russian ships and a submarine while lacking a functional navy? And that the Russians are afraid to fly over Ukraine? The Ukrainians are clever and flexible and doing the best they can. Russia is not doing well, they have lost a generation of young men, and their economy is doing a deep dive. I think the main thing we need to focus on is to continue to provide the Ukrainians with whatever we can and making it clear to Russians that the world supports Ukraine. It may well be that this war will end when the Russians implode from within.
Macron has been doing the absolute minimum to avoid criticism. Many countries are guilty of this, but few as powerful as France. Put pressure on your leaders (even if it’s just one small voice). Belgium’s support has been worst of all. Thank god for the Netherlands trying to make up for their shameful support.
The most fact based analysis to date. Historically correct. As a fervent western supporter, I'm depressed beyond all reason. We have left it all up to the countries of Europe who are half russified and are just not interested. The American's are following suit. Exactly what Putin predicted.😢😢😢.
Maybe they're not interested because they know Putin is not an imperialist. It's incredibly arrogant to think that Americans would understand Russia better than Europeans.
Time magazines influence is a mystery to me. Crap publication that I had stopped reading at 18. Could not be used as a resource in university because, well, Time magazine is crap.
We remember that there was no real obstacle for the USA to provide Ukraine the long-range ballistic ATACMS missiles in September-October 2022. Remember that the US Army used 414 ATACMS missiles in 2003 on Iraq (Iraq! Not Russia or China. Besides tomahawks and other bombs). No obstacle. Had the USA supplied only 80 ATACMS, Ukraine would cut all Z logistics and would allow the Z to fortify and mine everything for 9 months. The war could be won just in 2022.
Right now all UA's allies have been on a poor level of support, like everything comes to late and like he says, the replenishmet of equipment etc.and the right equipment!
The International Olympic Committee said Israeli athletes should not be held accountable for their country's actions. No discrimination against them is allowed. The policy of double standards is obvious. With Russia it's the other way around 432 234
I would be interested in learning more about Russia's shrinking strategic wealth fund. How long is it projected to last? What options does Russia have when they run out? How devastating will it be to the Russian economy and the average Russian?
Russia's shrinking strategic wealth fund - is approximately $150 billion. and hardly changes. The Russian economy is growing by 2.5% per year. Ukraine's debt is $130 billion. Russia's GDP according to PPP is $5.5 trillion, - Ukraine $0.5 trillion. (2021) What can I add here? Apparently Ukraine is winning.
Hahaha 😂😂😂 the Russian economy is collapsing, inflation is sky rocketing, fuel shortages, bank base interest rates 15% a huge brain drain. Russian military capability is demonstrably very poor - undermining military exports. An aging population, labour shortages with a plunging birth rate a medium term demographic catastrophe. Heading towards a North Korean economy.
@@davidbrunsdon3245 October? What's the exact date? There is no doubt that all past forecasts and assessments of Western analysts about Russia and its “torn to shreds” economy come true with a 99% probability. 😅😅 But Russia continues to survive within the 1%.
There will be consequences if support for Ukraine is slowed. Zelensky is only human and is being asked to do the impossible. He is doing it well. But he may well not be perfect. His advisors who call him messianic should probably reconsider their career choices.
I see opinion in the US that is beginning to see the stated Ukrainian victory conditions as unattainable by them in the context of their performance this summer (never mind that at least some of the problems resulted from moronic doctrinal suggestions from Western militaries). Further, the Israel war now has higher significance for the US. If one has to choose one or the other, we would probably be inclined to the Levant, especially since the US managed the decline of the USSR tolerably well even when the current Ukraine was a Soviet possession. These events, along with political considerations are causing some hitches in support for Ukraine in the US. If it is necessary to negotiate, now might be better rather than in the context of an event like a first ‘no’ vote on UKR aid in our Congress, or AfD surging into the BRD government after a major election success. As your guest said, time is on Russia’s side, especially since Ukrainian success is dependent upon outside help, and only the Russians have escalatory options.
@@Jszar The western allies provide stuff, they aren’t currently fighting and show no proclivity to do so, meaning there are a few things that Russia can do that Ukraine cannot reply in kind. One is using strategic ALCM or other platforms with conventional warheads; admittedly a trade off since it erodes Russia’s deterrent. Another is using its submarines to enforce shipping restrictions, implying a more forceful interdiction of Ukraines ability to ship grain. Interference with satellite comms. Holding a new nuclear test. Mobilizing closer to the percentage of population that Ukraine has. It’s not difficult to come up with stuff. In any case, these things are just a coda to my previous post.
Frankly, I don’t experience any U.S. weariness. Congressional support of Ukraine is about 80 out of 100 Senators and about 350 out of 435 Representatives. The problem is that a small group of frankly crazies in House (20) are in a keystone voting position for control of House. For reasons having nothing to do with Ukraine, we are having difficulty bringing the issue to a vote. Add in the Trump factor and republicans stepping out of line can be denied renomination in 2024. Democrats are on the brink of a landslide; Radical Republican right is throwing the government literally into chaos in the hope of distracting attention from their own incompetence and insanity.
@@halporter9 Correct, moving 20 or so votes in the House is all it takes to allow more to waver. Also, several European countries are at least tapping the brakes, and others have negative signs politically, eg surging AfD in Germany.
The huge landmine fields in eastern Ukraine turn out to be a formidable obstacle for the Ukrainian army to push forward. If Russia expects to win this war and the “annexed” part of Ukraine to remain in their hands, these mines become their problem. How do they think they can clear their own mines, if this land is going to be any good to them in the future? This may turn out the ultimate case of shooting one’s own foot.. ?
General Zaluzhny’s said he needs the following - 350 tanks, 600-700 infantry fighting vehicles, 500 howitzers, 1 million rounds of 155mm shells, large numbers Mig 29 fighters, saying he will reach Crimea. Oh wait - that is what he said he needed in 2022 (and he received EVERYTHING he asked for) and still has gained ZERO ground
What pudin fully appreciates is the venality of many western opinion makers, flick a few thousand here or there and he can significantly bend western policy to his liking. Reportedly Brexit cost him just $15m.
If this is true Putin has to be the most powerful person in the world. He managed to get Trump elected in the USA and brexit in England..much love for Putin for destroying the nwo.
I agree with Francis Dearnley I don’t think the interest in following the Ukraine war has switched to the Middle East. Serious people understand that if Ukraine falls , this will have a profound strategic impact on the world. Slava Ukraini 🇬🇧🇺🇦
Time would be great if it plays into your hand but given an enemy perspective they won't give anyone the opportunity to even pick up the cards. Any attack on the US, EU or NATO will come like an extinction blow from left field if histroy is any example. Demonstrated most recently, we witnessed a large haineous complex assualt across many groups and factions successfully accomplished without any known telegraph of messages or intelligence interception. Interesting listening to the ISW with George and his perspective, which is a voice of many. I am impressed that the Ukranian forces have performed as well as they have. They have done what many thought was impossible with their small resources against #2 in the old world. George carefully walked his words with care regarding Ukraine obtaining the level of a full combined armamentarium with attention on air control and projection. I believe he gracefully again with care managed to slip the maneuver word into the presentation. The solid message I got is without committed and sustained resupply they might as well go pound sand. His presentation was fresh and worth listening to. Enjoy your stream and listen often.
(Continued) Much of the wealth fund is gold. How easy will it be to sell the gold and will unloading large amounts of gold on the world market impact the price of gold?
The Ukrainians will never have the same results seen by the U.S. and it's "friends" until it has the same equipment. The intro to "Ukraine the Latest" is beginning to grate on my nerves, because Ukraine will not "finish the job" until we give them 100% the tools, not 30%. I always appreciate your updates and insights.
Russia will never give up Crimea, fact. Russia will never give up the Donbass region, also a fact. Prepare for the never ending war. Plus Russia knows Ukraine can never join NATO if it is constantly involved in a military conflict, prior. The NATO rules explicitly state this.
So funny how the worse russia performs, the more active their internet bot army becomes with their claims of doing well 🤣 Anyway, some great news, the russonazis abandoned Berdiansk airport after just one ATACMS strike. So yeah, it's a game changer.
Despite the enormous effort of excellent mathematicians and code breakers, the Enigma (mentioned at the beginning) could ultimately only be decrypted through betrayal.
Very informative pod! The future looks totally depressing. Russia getting stronger and the world getting more divided and losing interest. I think the comfy West has forgotten how to fight and win!
George Barros IS NOT AN EXPERT. He’s junior at best and reports what the rest I’d find in twitter. I’m disappointed David and crew are giving him the microphone…it cheapens the brand.
In my view a stated opinion without factual data is just another lie. Schuster’s article does presents some questions that need to be asked now whether than 2 more years down the rode. Hopefully I want him to be wrong and the lack of providing Ukraine the munitions they need have not harmed their chances at victory.
Epic question! - what does Kyiv need to win? Apparently the same thing is what a turtle needs to fly, a brick to swim, a deaf person to play the piano or Biden to win the 2024 elections.... Very little is needed - a parallel universe where this can be a reality....
The Times, Russian loses - Pick a number, any number, then add plenty of zero's then triple it. Ukrainian loses - Oh minimal, very low?? Rubbish so called "journalism".
We will never grow weary in our hopes for Ukraine and democracy keep up the great work
Shane
Ireland
I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm more invested than ever in Ukraine defeating Putin's imperialism.
💯%
I'm a big Real Madrid fan, I support them all the way... but does it change the way they play against Barcelona on a Sunday afternoon?
Yes!
🤣🤣🤣
U and wat army? Latvia? Estonia? U gonna go hide behind the americans?😂😂😂😂😂😂
Stunning piece. Maybe the best piece I've seen on the war, and I follow this war intensively.
Excellent discussion supported by well organized, meaty information.
Best episode in a while
Very good and objective analysis from George Barros; only thing to pick up on is that Ukraine didn't apply NATO combined arms methods because it couldn't, only having ~10% of its force equipped and trained that way, and having nothing like the air supremacy that NATO will always enjoy.
Don't forget that there was no real obstacle for the USA to provide Ukraine the long-range ballistic ATACMS missiles in September-October 2022. Remember that the US Army used 414 ATACMS missiles in 2003 on Iraq (Iraq! Not Russia or China. Besides tomahawks and other bombs). No obstacle. Had the USA supplied only 80 ATACMS, Ukraine would cut all Z logistics and would allow the Z to fortify and mine everything for 9 months. The war could be won just in 2022.
No exactly.
Just listen carefully to what he said. He explicitly mentioned that NATO doctrine and planning for the counter offensive probed to be wrong!
And it helps to have the arms, which can be be combined effectively, to accomplish the goal.
Continue to support Ukraine maximally! Thanks for your great coverage! An American whose early years encompassed WWII and the Cold War…now Putin! Slava Ukrainian!🇺🇦🇬🇧🇺🇸
US must take financial responsibility for damage done in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and ofc Ukraine.
While missing Dom today, Francis is superb, and the guest is intimate in his knowledge of the war progress. Dom has often told us of those tank and armour attacks in tight formations on open foods. I don't agree the counter offensive failed. It is one of many to come.
Yes, the counter offensive has not failed. Just been challenging without the right capabilities
Ukraine managed to sustain positive loss ratio throughout the counter offensive. That alone is impressive - compare it to russia's catastrophic losses in Amdriivka
There will be bad days. One of the best podcasts so far. Good work.
Excellent assessment. If only small minded politicians could see the bigger picture, not just for Ukraine but for the world. We are becoming too small of a world for bullies and psychopaths to be given free reign to brutalize others into submission. We need a world where cooperation and collaboration is encouraged where dissenting voices are heard and problems are addressed rather than suppressed.
Well said
Francis is supreme journalism. Greetings from Germany
😂😂😂😂😂
@@tad27612troll 🙄
@@tad27612TROLL INCOMING
The reason they resort to emojis is their failure to face reality.
What reality? The blood on Krremlin's hands for attempted genocide with unspeakable atrocities.
Unspeakable, ergo, their stupid, sneering emojis.
And when they do resort to verbal language, what do they do?
They lie.
whats so funny toad ?@@tad27612
Propaganda bullshit that wont age well😮
A well timed hit piece from Time. Schuster is a hack.
Also, have been saying the same thing about Western armor. Our reaction when some was predictably lost deterred Ukraine from using them often full stop. Making them useless.
More quality journalism from the team. Really pleased to hear that support for the channel has not diminished in light of recent developments in Israel. Broadening the geopolitical analysis to include developments in the middle east, east Asia and the far east I welcome because of course it all links up in so many ways.
I agree. I appreciate that this podcast remains at the forefront, and that the reporting is strong.
We all know what Ukraine needs.
Why is Biden and NATO so reluctant to send it
Biden stance only makes sense if he seeks failure, or there is another hidden agenda.
What do they need?
Because NATO either does not have it or cannot compromise it’s own security deterrent.
The Time article (written by a Russian who left Russia quite a while ago) parrots talking points expressed by Arestovych in recent weeks.
Arestovych left (or was fired) his earlier position as an advisor to the Office of the President a long time ago, but I think he is the anonymous source of the quotes in Time.
Arestovych has acknowledged that he is running against Zelensky for the presidency.
Arestovych is very chummy with Russian opposition oligarchs. He refers to them as "the elites," which he means as a compliment (not a criticism).
The counteroffensive had its hands tied behind its back from the beginning with the lack of air support, ATACMs and other long range weaponry and also the volume of ammo needed. The roughly dozen or so helicopters destroyed by the ATACMS in Berdiansk and Luhansk were the Russian deterrents that slowed down the counteroffensive earlier. The counteroffensive is slow, but keeps going, the Ukrainian crossings over the Dnipro in Kherson could become interesting, and then there is the relentless pounding of Crimea which forced out the Black Sea Fleet and now that peninsula is vulnerable. Ukraine will prevail, but the West needs to make the decision to give Ukraine what it needs now to win this once and for all. Slava Ukraini!
Ukraine has done a phenomenal job and continues to innovate and surprise.
President Zelenskyy has done as much as anyone could ask of a leader in a time of war.
Ukrainians have sacrificed innumerable hardships and it is wholly their decision on whether they want to continue
Ukraine is not failing and is in a stronger position than it was last year and will be in an even stronger one in 2024
Russia is in a very bad position and as the war drags on the business elite are becoming anxious. Internal Russian politics is in turmoil and with oil plants etc being targeted they are increasingly restless
The winter will be harsh on troops but more on Russian than Ukrainians
LRW is worrying Russia and Russia is constantly mentioning negotiations so it's doubtful they want to continue
Selenski was elected on a peace platform. That he would honour the Minsk agreements. Soon as he was elected he did a about turn. He lied to his own people. Hevwas seduced by american neocons that promised him the world. Now half of Ukrainian people have fled never to come back and Ukraine is being systematically destroyed. Selenski has been a absolute total disarster for the Ukrainian people !
😂😂😂
Zelensky has done more to defeat Ukraine. He knows zero about military strategy. He's made nothing but mistakes in 2023.
His advisors are lining up to run up against him.
@@tad27612that's why he delegates to people who DO know military strategy, in true democratic fashion. He does not need to be the expert, unlike a vertical of power system. So his personal military expertise is a moot point.
Only a personally strong man could say he's done, he cares about his military, and it's wisest to abandon his original plan. That is what a strong leader would do. But, a strong man would not have set himself up as being in charge in the first place. A strong man would never have sent his troops over the line in the first place. Strong men are honest, they don't blameshift, they take personal responsibility even when it hurts their ego. Putin is simply not a strong man in himself!
@@thinker646 Complete nonsense. He shows up in Avdivka and tells the commander not one step backwards which will result in a disaster in Avdivka.
He goes to Kherson and tells the commanders to cross the Dneiper.
He's a lot like Hitler in World War II. He has drug addiction problems and lives in a fantasy land.
BRAVO for George Barros and to The Telegraph for giving him outlet.
Excellent Podcast and very interesting and informative.
😂😂😂😂
@@tad27612ok comrade troll
One of the best. Love the commentary on the _Time_ article.
I listened to this on Spotify. That was a great interview.
Finally, an Expert! Bravo Gentleman!
Fantastic episode, I love hearing the analysis from the ISW. Perhaps one day Professor Michael Clark interview?
The ghost of Chamberlain hovering above the weak and feeble
But there are more bravehearts than cowards
Thanks Francis, I will never switch off.. I wish us regular people could do more to help.!
Exceptional journalism and analysis, as expected. Two things especially stood out to me from George Barros' analysis: 1) The training provided by the US, Germany (and/or other NATO forces) lost efficacy because it largely focused on theory rather than integrating the lived experience of Ukrainiain soldiers who know the enemy they've been facing; and, 2) the delay in providing sufficient weaponry to Ukraine's forces leaves them feeling unable to risk losing equipment, even for potentially great gains, because we've instilled a feeling of scarcity. How much better if they can begin fighting with the assurance that they will have enough. Now is when we need to recognize the strengths of Ukrainian soldiers and stand strong with them.
I think George has provided one of the best analysis about the counteroffensive and the war I have heard. I hope our politicians in Europe will wake up and acknowledge the current situation before it's too late. And a lot more should be done to counter the online kremlin propaganda which presents a serious security risk to every country.
I really enjoyed this episode. I am alarmed though by the TIME article given the magazines influence, readership and reputation. I wonder how such poor journalism has been allowed for publication? Has the aggressor somehow influenced the editors? It just seems incongruous.
Republican money as usual.
This was an excellent article. It just didn’t follow the NATO narrative.
The impact of the war on the Russian economy seems to be absent from the analyses. Russia only produces gas and oil. The infrastructure relies on western technology and maintenance is difficult. The reduction in production capacity has been hidden by the drop in exports due to sanctions but soon the situation will been so bad that it will influence exports to countries that have no sanctions.
Very wise Francis 😊
I think the Ukraine Counter Offensive has "slowed" NOT "stalled or stopped" and that the to-ing and throwing over the decision re Cluster Bombs, receipt of Air Support by way of F16's and the extensive and numerous minefields.
Really enjoyed Barros' comentary
EXCEPTIONAL
US not trying hard enough and Europe still fast asleep. It now seems inevitable that Putin will take whatever he thinks is the next aggressive towards Europe and people will start bemoaning their lack of support for Ukraine in the past year and a half.
Wait. Wait. The Russians have no chips, so how is their EW so good?
Brilliant guest
I don't know anyone who reads Time Magazine, so I would not call it influencial. I believe that there are youtube creators with more influence. Many are not shocked that a media outlet over used "unnamed sources".
Time magazine has been a rag for yonks. Ignore them. This cover story is more about attention to Time than whatchcallyer journalism, as Francis' critiques exemplify.
And it’s been decades since Americans considered Time prestigious. It went bankrupt decades ago and their main money maker is archival images. Today, each issue is usually one “feature article,” one secondary story and then the rest is ads and “sponsored content” (IE, advertising disguised as content).
@baruchgoldstein1941 Cool story, bro.
The Simon Shuster of TIME is a Moscow based, in 2014 he celebrated the Crimea annexation: "Just paid for a coffee in Russian rubles. Welcome to the new Crimea, like it or not", 16 March 2014, 1.5 days before the annexation was complet. In February 2014, when Russian and Yanukovich spetsnaz were killing people in Kyiv, Shuster expressed his waiting for that Ukraine would not be alive for too long. Then he many times argued to not provide help for Ukraine since 2014.
I don't understand how people can do combined arms without fighter jets. Fighting the Nato way assumes air superiority or at least equality, by my reckoning. Why do people persist in
saying they are "failing" if they do not do combined arms, when they have few airplanes and nothing equal to what the Russians have. Can we not accept that they have achieved amazing
things -- like sinking Russian ships and a submarine while lacking a functional navy? And that the Russians are afraid to fly over Ukraine? The Ukrainians are clever and flexible and doing the best they can. Russia is not doing well, they have lost a generation of young men, and their economy is doing a deep dive. I think the main thing we need to focus on is to continue to provide the Ukrainians with whatever we can and making it clear to Russians that the world supports Ukraine. It may well be that this war will end when the Russians implode from within.
First part accurate, second part entirely plausible.
Je suis avec Ukraine et Zelenskyy 100%
Macron has been doing the absolute minimum to avoid criticism. Many countries are guilty of this, but few as powerful as France. Put pressure on your leaders (even if it’s just one small voice).
Belgium’s support has been worst of all. Thank god for the Netherlands trying to make up for their shameful support.
The most fact based analysis to date. Historically correct.
As a fervent western supporter, I'm depressed beyond all reason.
We have left it all up to the countries of Europe who are half russified and are just not interested. The American's are following suit. Exactly what Putin predicted.😢😢😢.
Maybe they're not interested because they know Putin is not an imperialist. It's incredibly arrogant to think that Americans would understand Russia better than Europeans.
Time magazines influence is a mystery to me. Crap publication that I had stopped reading at 18. Could not be used as a resource in university because, well, Time magazine is crap.
Regular listener, Montana - USA
We remember that there was no real obstacle for the USA to provide Ukraine the long-range ballistic ATACMS missiles in September-October 2022. Remember that the US Army used 414 ATACMS missiles in 2003 on Iraq (Iraq! Not Russia or China. Besides tomahawks and other bombs). No obstacle. Had the USA supplied only 80 ATACMS, Ukraine would cut all Z logistics and would allow the Z to fortify and mine everything for 9 months. The war could be won just in 2022.
6:49 has Zelenskiy really said the things as reported? Has anyone checked?
Yes. Easy to check.
Small correction, the colossus replica at Bletchly park decoded the Lorenz cypher (Tunny) not enigma
Right now all UA's allies have been on a poor level of support, like everything comes to late and like he says, the replenishmet of equipment etc.and the right equipment!
L’ouest doit aider Ukraine
The International Olympic Committee said Israeli athletes should not be held accountable for their country's actions. No discrimination against them is allowed. The policy of double standards is obvious. With Russia it's the other way around 432 234
Thanks from Down East Maine
George Barros has a wicked mustache FYI - great episode everyone!
I would be interested in learning more about Russia's shrinking strategic wealth fund. How long is it projected to last? What options does Russia have when they run out? How devastating will it be to the Russian economy and the average Russian?
Russia's shrinking strategic wealth fund - is approximately $150 billion. and hardly changes.
The Russian economy is growing by 2.5% per year.
Ukraine's debt is $130 billion.
Russia's GDP according to PPP is $5.5 trillion, - Ukraine $0.5 trillion. (2021)
What can I add here? Apparently Ukraine is winning.
Hahaha 😂😂😂 the Russian economy is collapsing, inflation is sky rocketing, fuel shortages, bank base interest rates 15% a huge brain drain. Russian military capability is demonstrably very poor - undermining military exports. An aging population, labour shortages with a plunging birth rate a medium term demographic catastrophe. Heading towards a North Korean economy.
Estimates I've read suggest it'll be fully depleted by October 2024.
Wait for the gold price to drop. This means they are offloading for cash money
@@davidbrunsdon3245 October? What's the exact date? There is no doubt that all past forecasts and assessments of Western analysts about Russia and its “torn to shreds” economy come true with a 99% probability. 😅😅 But Russia continues to survive within the 1%.
There will be consequences if support for Ukraine is slowed. Zelensky is only human and is being asked to do the impossible. He is doing it well.
But he may well not be perfect. His advisors who call him messianic should probably reconsider their career choices.
I stick with Ukraine. Not tired of supporting them. We need to donate to United24 and NAFO to try to plug the gap in political weapons support.
From Australia
Is America really going to run away again? How can we really be expected to follow such a bunch of irresponsible muppets?
I see opinion in the US that is beginning to see the stated Ukrainian victory conditions as unattainable by them in the context of their performance this summer (never mind that at least some of the problems resulted from moronic doctrinal suggestions from Western militaries).
Further, the Israel war now has higher significance for the US. If one has to choose one or the other, we would probably be inclined to the Levant, especially since the US managed the decline of the USSR tolerably well even when the current Ukraine was a Soviet possession. These events, along with political considerations are causing some hitches in support for Ukraine in the US. If it is necessary to negotiate, now might be better rather than in the context of an event like a first ‘no’ vote on UKR aid in our Congress, or AfD surging into the BRD government after a major election success.
As your guest said, time is on Russia’s side, especially since Ukrainian success is dependent upon outside help, and only the Russians have escalatory options.
@@williammorris584You've got me curious. Which escalatory options does Russia have that the combination of Ukraine + its Western allies don't?
@@Jszar The western allies provide stuff, they aren’t currently fighting and show no proclivity to do so, meaning there are a few things that Russia can do that Ukraine cannot reply in kind. One is using strategic ALCM or other platforms with conventional warheads; admittedly a trade off since it erodes Russia’s deterrent. Another is using its submarines to enforce shipping restrictions, implying a more forceful interdiction of Ukraines ability to ship grain. Interference with satellite comms. Holding a new nuclear test. Mobilizing closer to the percentage of population that Ukraine has. It’s not difficult to come up with stuff.
In any case, these things are just a coda to my previous post.
Frankly, I don’t experience any U.S. weariness. Congressional support of Ukraine is about 80 out of 100 Senators and about 350 out of 435 Representatives. The problem is that a small group of frankly crazies in House (20) are in a keystone voting position for control of House. For reasons having nothing to do with Ukraine, we are having difficulty bringing the issue to a vote. Add in the Trump factor and republicans stepping out of line can be denied renomination in 2024. Democrats are on the brink of a landslide; Radical Republican right is throwing the government literally into chaos in the hope of distracting attention from their own incompetence and insanity.
@@halporter9 Correct, moving 20 or so votes in the House is all it takes to allow more to waver. Also, several European countries are at least tapping the brakes, and others have negative signs politically, eg surging AfD in Germany.
Why did we waste so much money on this? It is an EU problem not ours!
The huge landmine fields in eastern Ukraine turn out to be a formidable obstacle for the Ukrainian army to push forward.
If Russia expects to win this war and the “annexed” part of Ukraine to remain in their hands, these mines become their problem.
How do they think they can clear their own mines, if this land is going to be any good to them in the future?
This may turn out the ultimate case of shooting one’s own foot.. ?
Is there a link to see the code breaking machine video in action?
General Zaluzhny’s said he needs the following - 350 tanks, 600-700 infantry fighting vehicles, 500 howitzers, 1 million rounds of 155mm shells, large numbers Mig 29 fighters, saying he will reach Crimea.
Oh wait - that is what he said he needed in 2022 (and he received EVERYTHING he asked for) and still has gained ZERO ground
Ukraine must win !!
Watch ukraine matters he explains in depth and what a sacked employee has got to do with this piece it's total rubbish
What pudin fully appreciates is the venality of many western opinion makers, flick a few thousand here or there and he can significantly bend western policy to his liking. Reportedly Brexit cost him just $15m.
If this is true Putin has to be the most powerful person in the world. He managed to get Trump elected in the USA and brexit in England..much love for Putin for destroying the nwo.
now that the eu is moving towards dissolution of nations(kinda like russia is doing to ukraine) brexit looks wiser than ever.
Mmmm may be more propaganda !!! 😂😂😂😂
I agree with Francis Dearnley I don’t think the interest in following the Ukraine war has switched to the Middle East. Serious people understand that if Ukraine falls , this will have a profound strategic impact on the world. Slava Ukraini 🇬🇧🇺🇦
Listen everyday, keep up the outstanding and important work.. Russia must not prevail 🇺🇦
Time would be great if it plays into your hand but given an enemy perspective they won't give anyone the opportunity to even pick up the cards.
Any attack on the US, EU or NATO will come like an extinction blow from left field if histroy is any example. Demonstrated most recently, we witnessed a large haineous complex assualt across many groups and factions successfully accomplished without any known telegraph of messages or intelligence interception.
Interesting listening to the ISW with George and his perspective, which is a voice of many. I am impressed that the Ukranian forces have performed as well as they have. They have done what many thought was impossible with their small resources against #2 in the old world. George carefully walked his words with care regarding Ukraine obtaining the level of a full combined armamentarium with attention on air control and projection. I believe he gracefully again with care managed to slip the maneuver word into the presentation. The solid message I got is without committed and sustained resupply they might as well go pound sand. His presentation was fresh and worth listening to. Enjoy your stream and listen often.
Dark humor warning:
I am waiting for Microsoft Flight Simulator Kamikaze drone plugin...
Zelensky está llevando a Ucrania a un camino sin salida con Miles de muertes sin necesidad, nunca podrán ganarle a Rusia 😢
Filorusso
Dream on, telegraph, dream on...
(Continued) Much of the wealth fund is gold. How easy will it be to sell the gold and will unloading large amounts of gold on the world market impact the price of gold?
It would be great to have more on the market. Indians will buy all they can get. Not so sure what ruzz would do with all those rupees.
The Ukrainians will never have the same results seen by the U.S. and it's "friends" until it has the same equipment.
The intro to "Ukraine the Latest" is beginning to grate on my nerves, because Ukraine will not "finish the job" until we give them 100% the tools, not 30%.
I always appreciate your updates and insights.
So your genius strategy is for other countries to deplete their entire arsenals in order to keep a proxy war going.
Domino Theory again just like in Vietnam 1973
@vanveakrin TROLL
Just take a look at the rubbish he spews out of his algorythm
Good atuff. However somewhat Disappointed that insight on how to penetrate the defense lines - land Mines - without being bombed - was not provided.
Obviously, Ukraine cannot penetrate Russia's defensive lines. They have tried for half a year with no success.
Russia will never give up Crimea, fact. Russia will never give up the Donbass region, also a fact. Prepare for the never ending war. Plus Russia knows Ukraine can never join NATO if it is constantly involved in a military conflict, prior. The NATO rules explicitly state this.
Ukraine will never give up either. The West is still fueling Ukraine. Let's see who can hold on longer.
So funny how the worse russia performs, the more active their internet bot army becomes with their claims of doing well 🤣
Anyway, some great news, the russonazis abandoned Berdiansk airport after just one ATACMS strike. So yeah, it's a game changer.
Despite the enormous effort of excellent mathematicians and code breakers, the Enigma (mentioned at the beginning) could ultimately only be decrypted through betrayal.
Very informative pod! The future looks totally depressing. Russia getting stronger and the world getting more divided and losing interest. I think the comfy West has forgotten how to fight and win!
George Barros IS NOT AN EXPERT. He’s junior at best and reports what the rest I’d find in twitter. I’m disappointed David and crew are giving him the microphone…it cheapens the brand.
Treachery looms.
Canada.
Francis pedalling more crap.
Ukraine have taken 700.000 killed and wounded. And ticking. 50 000 limbs lost.
And 1000000 tanks, 5000 Abrams, 100000 planes. Your silly numbers show your desperation.
Google 50000 limbs@@simonwatson2399
In my view a stated opinion without factual data is just another lie. Schuster’s article does presents some questions that need to be asked now whether than 2 more years down the rode. Hopefully I want him to be wrong and the lack of providing Ukraine the munitions they need have not harmed their chances at victory.
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️🇺🇸
It is such a failure that the Russian keep advancing. What a failure of a show.
Russia is mining the east of Ukraine.
Puck Footin
Very depressing podcast.
Victory? Delusional.
Is this war now a quagmire can any side win?
💙🌻🍉🌻🍉💛
Epic question! - what does Kyiv need to win?
Apparently the same thing is what a turtle needs to fly, a brick to swim, a deaf person to play the piano or Biden to win the 2024 elections....
Very little is needed - a parallel universe where this can be a reality....
Russia cannot win - sanctions will remain whatever the position on the ground. Russia will become like North Korea and subservient to China.
so many words to say so very little
@@davidbrunsdon3245 🤣🤣🤣
pallets of fake mail in ballots can move mountains.
Ukraine is done
Great guest! Thanks
Yeah, everyone loves listening to propagandists who work at think tanks!
for ukraine to win, it is necessary not to sell american weapons to Hamas🤣🤣🤣
The Times, Russian loses - Pick a number, any number, then add plenty of zero's then triple it.
Ukrainian loses - Oh minimal, very low?? Rubbish so called "journalism".
Ze
Lol
Ukraine is losing. Stop the war.
Keep chirping little bird.
Dream on
Have another tumbler of vodka, tankie
Traitorous Putin Mouthpiece.
Russia leaves, the war stops. Try posting that.