Ten years ago, I predicted 2022. Did I get it right?
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- Опубліковано 9 січ 2022
- Predicting the future is a fool's errand, but I tried it: talking about phones, lifelogging, and social changes. And on top of that: what do I think's coming in 2032?
2012 photo credits:
Andy Davidson, IMG_1790, www.flickr.com/photos/andy_d/...
Andy Davidson, IMG_1791, www.flickr.com/photos/andy_d/...
both licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 creativecommons.org/licenses/...
The Brief History of the Dead by Kevin Brockmeier: amzn.to/3qkj9jP [that's an affiliate link]
Thanks to Garry, Alex and K for suggesting this video!
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And yes, to avoid the obvious comments: I have aged in the last ten years. It'll happen to you, too. And it's better than the alternative!
Inevitable, isn’t it?
Impossible 😂😂
jesus the wall is brutal
XD
Lies
There’s 3 rules in predicting tech.
1. The laws of physics never change
2. Average consumers will always prefer simplicity (abstraction) over performance.
3. Technology can never solve social problems on it’s own.
3. Technology makes social problems worse
4. Every optimistic prediction turns out to be the opposite.
@@_blank-_ depends on the technology and depends on the social problem. Now if you're going to tell me social media makes divides in society worse then absolutely I agree with you on that. But if you're going to tell me that technology makes Healthcare worse I'm going to sit here and laugh at you for about 3 hours and then move on with my day as dealing with people that dumb is just a waste of time.
@@_blank-_ Only because one of our social problems is that it's far easier to abuse than to use.
damn thats true and kinda deep...
"Our phones will record everything we say."
Tom : "Ah,I got this one wrong".
Facebook and Google that are listening to send you ads : sigh of relief
Thought the same thing 😂
And Alexa, etc can probably hear everything you say
Worse yet, some... 'less-democratic' governments are _known_ to have used the phones of activists and trouble makers to eavesdrop on their conversations.
(as for the more-democratic governments, it's hard to say whether they never do that, or are just better at hiding it)
@@MrNicoJac 😂😂😂😂 so profound wow very insightful 😂😂 get back to work bozo
@@fischy947 keep working to get that GED you’ll do it one day buddy!
He was actually right about Apple wanting people to record their entire lives. One of the big "selling points" of the Apple Vision Pro is being able to record your life and "relive" memories. He was just a year off
To be fair, the pandemic wasn't really expected by anyone.
@@cat1554 This wasn't caused by the pandemic though. Seems like it would happen one way or the other.
Also right about phones recording microphones, but in a marketing way
well not really, its just a form of 3d video. nothing like what was mentioned in the talk
he was wrong with only 2 min. details: - not optional ; products name is Pegasus 😅
The fact that he was right in the way that short form videos are now really skyrocketing in popularity is making my heart ache.
They were already skyrocketing in popularity back then. In fact, this prediction was a bit late - Tik Tok use has actually levelled off, by the looks of things. The average adult spends the same amount of time on TikTok today as they did in 2021.
@@TitaniumDragon But youtube, facebook and instagram shorts have blown up.
This vid is 2 years old, that’s not a crazy prediction for 2032
If it helps you sleep at night, it's somewhat astroturfed. The algorithms are all set up to reward short-form videos AND on top of it all, these videos are forced onto mobile users as autoplay when you start up the UA-cam app. Longform videos still have a lot of viewers, though.
UA-cam getting shut down is honestly a scary thought to me. Not in terms of privacy, but in terms of how much information I have absorbed through it (like learning how to use an oscilloscope), or reconnected with from before UA-cam existed (like obscure TV show clips), that would have all been severed with one swift stroke.
It will still be used for educational purposes, just less for entertainment. Just take tiktok for example, you cant even go to a specific timestamp or forward or reward by 10 seconds etc., it would be very annoying to watch a documentary there, UA-cam ist just way better for that. So in the bigger picture it might actually be a good thing; youtube being more educational than a potential distraction is something im looking forward to
I honestly think UA-cam does more good for the world than bad, but the censorship and demonetization and shadow banning of creators is really bugging me. I hope the content of youtube just gets reuploaded in other platforms and it dies, or, better yet, google decides to stop being evil again and lets freedom of speech have its place.
I hope before shutting down UA-cam gives creators the option to move their content their own servers or other services.
I think they'd keep the content in some history of some sorts, so they wouldn't remove all of this from ever existing. I bet though there's gonna be a new big social media, like how when Vine died a thing called Tik Tok appeared and now Tik Tok is a massive social media site.
It's scary to me too, just imagine the amount of productivity I'd regain for doing actual work!
"Back in summer 2012 this was a warm, friendly temporary festival site with a load of people on it, and now it's a cold, run-down, deserted bit of scrubland" - well, this sums up the difference between 2012 and 2022 quite well, doesn't it?
I can't argue, you're right.
In 2012 all I could think about was the end of the world lmao
@@Smalls-eye24 what do you find yourself thinking about now?
@@Smalls-eye24 there’s a written theory out there that the world did “end” in 2012. Now I can’t find it.
no
petition for tom scott to come back from retirement in 2032 and react to this
Nah. The Deconstruct: 2030 talk is probably better for this. (the video's called "Privacy's dead", more or less)
Dude was 20 in 2012 and is 45 in 2022, how the time flies:D
I was dreaming of wireless headphones when I was skateboarding as a teenage kid. In my 30's now and the dream has finally come true. 😁
Hey champion
I had the same idea
Yoo I did the same! I remember tying my earbud wires to my hoodie strings so they wouldn’t get tangled or rip out of my ears haha
Wireless headphones existed when you were a teen though.
@@MK8MasterJunjie How the hell you have 150k subs but only average 200 views per video? Paid?
I can't imagine a world without UA-cam, where would I procrastinate all day to avoid my responsibilities??
You'll be old enough for Bingo soon.
I feel personally attacked by your statement ...
Tiktok? Nah.
No need to worry, UA-cam will probably replaced by something else counterproductive
Decentralised UA-cam alternatives like odyssey or something
I really like how you have no issue admitting where you were wrong, it's humbling and serves as an example to a few of us, myself included 😊
If Google decides to "shut down this old product" I don't care. I would miss someone like you. You're intelligent and genuine and humble.
I think 2012 was the perfect year to have done this because it felt like a big transition year for smart phones and social media. Definitely didn’t see the death of blogs for a couple of years
Well, people did think it was the end of the world.
blogs didn't die. They just went into counterculture, and they're coming back in force now
True
@DAVID 2012 had a special end of the world energy, it was the Mayan prophecy thing.
No year since then had that - we traded fun, immediate, supernatural apocalyptic notions for depressing, distant, concrete, and constant ones.
@@PaulB_864 I think 2013-2015 was the transition, with 2014 being the main year. This is in terms of personal technology and culture.
Back around 2005-2006 I remember seriously wishing there was some way I could get the internet into a car so that I could listen to internet radio there. If you want to know what's going to happen in the next 3 or 4 years in tech, just ask a teenager what's missing.
Better things for disabled people :)
mm. Bigger nukes. Bigger guns. Bigger buildings. Bigger everything EXPAND THE WORLD
@@OpenFieldd bigger balls
@@OpenFieldd Ah yes good old dystopia
@@OpenFieldd haha planet go boom
Holy crap it's only been 10 years that our entire lives have been mobile? How... did that feel embedded, like breathing, so quickly?
"There's no money in Twitter, just the ability to promote other stuff."
One year later and this line was already proven wrong, that's a terrifying thought process
well, there's money in twitter --- as long as you're willign to kiss elon's ass. but there's still more money in other forms of S-- work!
I don't use Twitter, how was it proven wrong?
@@55CINCO55 Elon decided that any person who pays him $8 monthly deserves to get paid for their engagement, so Twitter turned into a cesspool of bait posts and engagement farms to make some quick and easy money.
@@55CINCO55 You can get paid on twitter depending on how popular your tweet was.
@@55CINCO55 It wasn't. The site is a disaster. Twitter (or... X) is hemorrhaging money, is currently worth less than half of the money Musk paid for it, and has just started the ludicrous offer of $16 a month for a "premium version"
Tom don’t worry, looking back at your past self and being embarrassed is something we can all relate to
Ye I’m not sure that’s anyone who isn’t embarrassed by things their past self did
In fact we can look back at a something done yesterday and be "what fool has... Wait it was made by me"
its personal growth :))
Indeed, especially if it happens some nights while you’re in bed and just ready to get some sleep.
No I was born perfect
Problem with predicting anything is that predictions tend to just take the current trends and imagine that they will go on indefinitely. Real-life is full of plot twists, unexpected developments, and for that matter fads that just fizzle out on their own.
This is why "the future" in media in like the 50s, 60s, etc., looks like that era. You have no frame of reference other than your own current time.
pandemic completely changed everything and accelerated the growth insanely
But one if the best ways to predict the future is to look at the past because a lot of things are cyclic in nature
agreed, its called the ""heuristic bias"
Just like COVID. No-one could've predicted that.
I love the honesty in the failures. We need more of that!
I thought of this original video more as a warning tale. Kind of a shorter term 1984. The fact that we haven't gone where you feared completely is a good thing for humanity as a whole.
I would say that the whole "iLife" prediction actually ended up being right in the watered down form of Snapchat stories and Instagram stories. I still get notifications to this day of a "memory" from 6 years ago.
Even OneDrive does that.
I'm sure I clicked/tapped through some intro screen that set that up, but I don't recall doing it.
But it’s your job to create the memory, it’s not being involuntarily recorded
Google Photos and Yandex Disk do that too
Same as Google, I get notifications about pictures taken 15 years ago. Now that because for some reasons those photos have the wrong date attached to them, 2007 instead of 2012, they are clear of the Olympic torch relay going through Barkingside.
The whole life blogging has taken off because battery technology and camera technology doesn't allow it, yet.
That prediction that the world will increasingly focus more and more on short-form videos was one of the most depressing things I've heard in a while.
I'm not entirely sure if I agree with it. At least until the algorithms improve. My biggest problem with shortform is that most of what is recommended to me is garbage.
I don't think it would happen, it's the same when people though mobile games are going to replace PC games.... that's still not happening. Also most short videos are complete garbage. Recently I tend to watch even longer videos than before, not shorter ones... so no... not after 10 not after a 100 years, short videos are not going to replace anything.
@@shawno8253 but people still scroll and scroll waiting for one small good thing and they won’t stop.
@@shawno8253 Agreed. Once in awhile I do run into a short that's almost like an advertisement for a long video that I would be interested in though.
@@Slav4o911 the mobile gaming market is bigger than the pc and console markets combined no? its a massively lucrative business and at the very least it's killed browser games
I love Tom, but how did he age like 20+ years in only 10 years.
My bad for always watching his videos with x2 playback speed 😅
that ages you as well@@fabtjar
Yep how like, im surprised too, 20 years at the least
@@Michael-gi5th Maybe he had a rough decade.
Appreciating your intention to share many failures in how difficult it is to predict the future..well done i hope to be able to see your next 10year prediction..thanks!
It's never occurred to me that Google might eventually shut down UA-cam, considering how much valuable content there is on it, but it makes sense. I hope people will make an archive until then.
As long as most of it can be backed up, then it would be a good thing cause UA-cam is horrible, there just is no competition.
@@Nekotaku_TV that would not be a good thing
I remain surprised that UA-cam hasn't been shut down. Google has a well-earned reputation for buying services and shutting them down a few years later.
In fairness, I also expected UA-cam to be merged into Google Video after the buy, not for the two to operate alongside each other independently until Google Video was deleted.
@@Nekotaku_TV it's not terrible, it just has some management issues, and as a consequence of being too big & diverse it can't please everyone.
I though Tom Scott himself highlighted how if it wasn't for UA-cam's content id most content creators probably couldn't have made half the stuff they do now & not a fraction of the exposure, and getting a copyright strike or demonetisation is just better than dealing with lawsuits or not being allowed to make anything. The oversensitivity to various topics is truely annoying but they're at the whim of advertisers since UA-cam Premium never took off to the level of a streaming service (despite honestly having much more interesting content)
Some niches are certainly better off having their own platform though
As of Feb. 2020, 30,000 hours of content were being uploaded to UA-cam per hour. I can't see that having decreased by 2022. I would hate to see it all lost, but good luck with being able to back-up all that data.
2012: “The descendant of Siri will have advanced abilities”
Actual 2022: “Hey Siri, call my dad”
“Ok, showing google results for Call of Duty”
Bruh.
This has 3 really funny meanings
"Hey Siri, call me daddy"
"I don't see a father in your contacts"
@@pacifico4999unus annus
@@pacifico4999 that make sense tho because Irish english speakers say me instead of my alot of times
Tom is spot on about short form videos so far and it’s only been 11 months or so
Isn't that an observation rather than a prediction though? TikTok already had more than a billion users at the time this video has been created.
@@martinm6368 D'oh!
He’s wrong about there not being any money in it, though
@@allisonbishop9365 how? TikTok’s get paid exponentially less than UA-cam videos
It does give me some confidence watching stuff like this, that probably the dystopian predictions we have won't come true
I can't believe 2012 was ten years ago... life really seems to go by faster and faster as you grow up. Ten years. Wow.
2020 was 2 years ago. That's crazier.
@@shambhav9534 exactly
@@shambhav9534 WHAT THE HECK😳😭... I cannot process this!
I can’t believe it. I’ve aged 4 years since 2020... it’s all hitting me now. Time has gone so fast like I can’t process the fact that 2020 was 3 YEARS AGO!!
Like I lost a close friend to covid and I remember the exact date too (February 13th 2020)
I’m scared of how fast time is going because I remember everything that happened in 2020 like yesterday, like I could literally make a whole documentary on it and remember every detail😳
Also how fast we’re aging... it’s actually scary to think about😰
@@its_zayaan nah you just bored all that time
@@its_zayaan .omg sammeeee i cant get my mind out of 2020 being 2 years ago like i swear i was JUST in 2020 what theeee
I got a sinking feeling of dread when I saw the last panel. It's not even that I love UA-cam but the sheer amount of human knowledge and work and experience that is on UA-cam and will come to it in 10 years time. Gone from public eyes forever, with a single press of a button. It is unfathomable.
I can see Google making it harder to upload videos, but I don't see them shutting down the service entirely in the near future.
simple, make youtube a public service. like water.
No different than throwing a book or your phone away. Information is always around, access to it is the issue.
@@nabicx 10 years later youtube is now pbs everyone has access to to it for ever
:( This already happens to UA-cam who cover “sensitive” subjects or expose people/corporations.
It's been a rough 10 years hasn't it fella
The prediction of short form content *completely* taking over long form content reminds me almost exactly how mobile games were "destined" to kill the traditional gaming industry. "Why make a console game if it cost 10x the amount and made 10x less money?" "Everyones going to have a phone, they won't need a console!" We now know how both can co-exist and continue to grow, but 10 years ago it really felt like it could happen. I think there's a very good place for both and it'll still be that way in 10 years. Short form will be king (it currently is), but long form will stay healthy and continue to grow.
Tom's prediction is not that bold. It's already started happening. TikTok has taken over for most of the z-generation as the go to platform
"Do You Guys Not Have Phones?"
Except the mobile games cost a tenth the effort/money to make and have the potential to make over ten times more in 'micro' transactions. So many companies started shoving crap instead of quality
The mobile games industry now makes more money than Hollywood. Look it up!
The primary reason why mobile gaming isn't much more huge is that most companies would rather produce cheap low quality mindless crap (which absolutely isn't necessary if you look at a game like Hearthstone which has been an excellent mobile game for years), but the other big hinderance is the control scheme. Only touch controls is very limiting. That said, if companies focused more on quality than whatever makes them the most money (which obviously will not happen), mobile gaming could potentially become better and more respected.
2012: College kid
2022: My dad
I really wish that in 2012, you would have filmed yourself answering interview questions from yourself in 2022. And you stitch it together to make it seamless as much as possible. That would be so cool to see and would have been a fantastic way to end your UA-cam career. We'll miss you, Tom!
waht an original idea, saw it dozens of times
I feel like the point about "iLife" not being real because "people don't like remembering everything" is not 100% wrong.
Services like iCloud/Google Photos (and even Snapchat and Facebook) have everything stored in the cloud and would periodically throw up memories when you open those apps.
It's not exactly the same sort of thing but I think it's a small piece of what Tom was going for.
Google Photos also seems to be suspiciously good at identifying people in photos and videos at this point too, though they don't notify you if you've appeared in someone else's photos (yet)
And maybe kinda Google Timeline (Location History) on Google Maps, tracking your locations every day and giving you an overview. Sort of similar in a tiny sense.
That's what I was thinking. The fact that your phone is constantly tracking your location and saves it to the cloud is accurate too. You can check maps and see everywhere you've been. I think he's being a bit too hard on some of his own predictions, not taking them with the pinch of salt that they need
@@skymin Facebook did, with their "is this you" feature that they pulled when they recognised your face in one of your friend's photos - scary stuff
@@Communist-Doge Yes, Google Location History is a similar thing! But then your photos are automatically geotagged so that's just another piece of data for making it even more accurate
As long as you include the words “big” and “disaster” in somewhat close proximity then yes you predicted correctly
😂😂😂
Very true
“There will be no big disaster”
@@Dark_Side_Productions That and any phrases implying the same are outlawed by law 189 article 3 of the constitution in the ass of the main commentor 😅
@@Dark_Side_Productions exactly, its a perfect year. Also nothing happened in Tiananmen Square.
You looked like a hippie Tom!
I will say that you have matured very gracefully I appreciate your channel and I look forward to any and all new content and predictions of the future thank you for your hard work Tom
I never even thought about the fact that I don't see blogs much anymore til I watched this.
The end of this video genuinely sent a shiver down my spine as someone who relies on longform content.
i also got that shivers, i just can't imagine the world without youtube and the ogs videos
hey, love ur vids bro.
It gave me a very sad, sinking feeling.
That battle has already been fought, and Vine lost. I wouldn't worry about it too much.
I don’t think such a prediction is accurate. The technology for short form has been out for a long while now, and if short form is so good, it should have completely taken over by now. Also sure, short form videos are becoming increasing popular, but long form videos have many advantages over short form.
Moral of the story: Tom is much better at predicting the past and present, and being thrown through windows, than predicting the future.
How many subs can I get from this
Current 89
@@casonsbasketballtutorials none
@@casonsbasketballtutorials none
@@casonsbasketballtutorials none
Postdicting
Respect to you for making some bold guesses, missing a few, but having the guts to share this with us.
He aged 30 years in 10 years thats amazing
I just hope you're wrong and people will get fed up with extremely short, superficial TikTok videos. Your type of content/format is the one i prefer, and i hope it never dies.
it's a trend cycle, keeps falling in and out of popularity
I don’t see shortform videos going away anytime soon but I do think if it isn’t changed and more people use it to further spread misinformation that its growth will halt or be slowed
agreed
There was this thing called Vine which hosted 7 sec long videos and it's gone now. I hope tiktok will be gone too as it's super bad for people's brains but I'm afraid that it is too important for the Chinese government to allow it
Google already started UA-cam Shorts.
You’re right to say blogs are less significant now, but I don’t think it’s because of twitter, I think podcasts and high quality youtube essays+lifestyle vlogs are simply an evolved form of simple text blogging. Short form videos are nice but they really won’t be able to satisfy my need to interact with a content creator’s high level ideas.
I agree completely. Even watching a bunch of shorts the content is too simple
Honestly I don’t watch blogs at all. It does not give information. Or maybe they do? At the certain age of people which I completed (I’m getting old) now I watch just much more information videos and documentaries
I'd say blogs to a certain extent didn't disappear, but they did stop being independently hosted. These days people use sites like Medium instead.
@@NathanGriffithsNZ Either that or it’s overly sponsored
Also, things like long Facebook posts are sorta like blogs.
Rare for most users though
You could have defended your “mistakes” out of ego but you just admitted to them, which is both more entertaining to watch and a more humble/realistic… well done.
No money in twitter... not even a year for that one to go away.
"And it's better than the alternative!" well said...we lost a friend of ours at 29 so whenever the rest of us hit a milestone birthday now we think of what the alternative is to getting older.
Well tbh we dont know what the alternative really is like. Maybe the after life is cool af, so maybe no, its not better than the alternative
Same here exactly. Im turning 30 this year and because im a recovered addict ive seen a few dozen people die before 30. Its bittersweet. Im greatful to be here but it hurts thats all those people arent. even 2 of my exes overdosed.
@@saverio_6990 Whether there is an after life or not, it's still better to live out your full life so I would beg to differ
@@saverio_6990 We'll get there all eventually so it doesn't matter where it's cool or not. Or whether it exists or not. You're here now
@@marksilla8276 all I am saying is that you cant say for sure that this life is better than the alternative
Tom Scott made this to throw us off the scent that he's actually 400 years old and can travel forwards and backwards in time
@@slevinchannel7589 Scott the woz
tom is the doctor...?
@@slevinchannel7589 I like Scotty Kilmer more
He's John Titor
@@TheEmolano John Scott
And here we are a year later, nine years ahead of prediction, short-form video taking over. UA-cam Shorts, Tiktok, IG Reels
He looked 16 10 years ago to 70
Tom: When has anyone been ever able to predict politics?
The Simpsons: Hold my DUFF
TRUE
I was labeled a conspiracy theorist for the past 10 years now they are all coming true.
FINALLY SOMEONE WHO UNDERSTANDS
1:20
Amen xD
I'm gonna be the boomer talking about the good ole youtube days
You ain't alone buddy
This is Sparta!!!
Bring it back
I'm already a UA-cam Boomer since it was new when I was a preteen just making dumb videos. It surprises me is that there are now young adults who have never existed in a pre-UA-cam era.
Welcome to the club. I miss the good ol' days, when UA-cam was a small independent website, with a huge mess of nothing but David Icke conspiracy theories and blurry clips of flying saucers...
I think that short form hasn’t fully taken over UA-cam in the same way, but rather, has acted as a sort of supplement. Stuff like TikTok has taken over the instant gratification that UA-cam used to do, but now, I do all of that bigger binging on UA-cam instead of stuff like Hulu and Netflix.
1 year after "there is no money in twitter" and now people are getting bags left and right
I think the lesson we can take away here, is that nobody can truly predict the future, no matter how knowledgeable you may be in the topic.
Omg it’s you
@@justsomeguycalledkaraka5614 omg its a bot!!! 😱😱😱
@@Bleeped ?
I would never predict Javascript would be used in everything, which is why I quit programming and become a musician.
@@justsomeguycalledkaraka5614 oh I see, this goes even deeper. So are you running all these accounts? I feel like I have stumbled on a rabbit hole
"UA-cam didn't kill television and television didn't kill radio"
But video, video killed the radio star
BIG reference
👍👍
But in my mind? And in my car?
You’re right. Whenever ppl make this type of prediction, they daily to acknowledge the inevitable flaws that exist with each software/algorithm/system/tech.
Television isn’t dead yet, but it’s user base is dying. Literally
I have to admit, you grew old very gracefully
😂😂
I watched this video in 2022 it feels like yesterday but how am I in 2024
Despite making errors, Tom Scott was actually kind of very realistic about our future/present, let's just hope we begin to do things to save our planet
There's a lot more dangers to humanity than the climate
@@nolongerjuicyboiz4413 and all of them come from humans
@@zexfafa2794 no, it comes from the universe's existence.
@@Skemmm exampel
@@zexfafa2794 duck the Politicians and there supporters
I believe there's a value in making these predictions 10 years in the future. Your predictions, while wrong in many cases, were well informed and researched at the time and provide us a reference to see the real change that happened in the subsequent years. We experience change incrementally which makes it very difficult to see how big the change is over a span of time without having a reference point that captures the sentiment at that time, almost like taking a screenshot of history.
im happy for u bro or sad idk im not reading all that
In 10 years I'll be 10 years older than before
Well said Sir.👌.
@@doge_the_cat your missing out, eh. Sincere wisdom, is hard 2 find.
ok nerd
You went from 0 to 100 real quick.. Or should i say teen to elder 😆😆😆
Bro aged 30 years in those 10 years 💀💀💀
exactly 💀
Thanks for the thoughtful dread, Tom.
thoughtful dread XD
Tom Scott
LOSER! I HAVE A BETTER VIDEO!
I would definitely be sad if your videos were to be lost with UA-cam. I love your work.
Tom Scott LOSER! I HAVE A BETTER VIDEO!!
Bot
It’s sad to me that a lot of the ways in which Tom was wrong pertain to the increased centralization of the internet-the effective replacement of blogging and private forums with the same few social media sites that everyone uses nowadays. They may be more convenient to use and easier to find other people & communities with, but I’ve always been wary of this model and I hope some cultural shift occurs soon that makes decentralization popular again (but I don’t actually expect it).
*All human history says* Hasn't happen yet.
As with all learning, from walking to politics, it's a helical process, where you go too far in one direction, and then too far in another, so that in the middle, you tend to be balanced and moving forward. We'll start seeing more localized networks and self-hosting content again, while also having some centralized platforms as well, but they will likely stop being for-profit companies, as that's just stupid altogether. For-profit companies make life worse, for everyone, in the long run. Corporations and national governments (non-consensual laws) are the dinosaurs of memetic evolution. Too big and dangerous to last, as compared to small and furry pro-social memes.
This has definitely been a rising concern in recent years, I think. We've seen a lot of high-profile, widespread outages recently that definitely would not have been anywhere near as severe as they were if the internet wasn't so overcentralized, and there's definitely a big concern with respect to how vulnerable some platforms (Discord in particular) actually are.
The internet as-is really isn't sustainable. But unfortunately, corporations do not care about sustainability in any form.
I think the answer should be democratic control of the internet by its users rather than going back to decentralisation. Most if not all of the downsides to the sort of centralisation we have now is due to the fact that it's owned by huge private companies that leave us no say in how we interact on the internet.
Web 3.0
I would've liked a few more predictions for 2032, just some wild speculations on things would've been interesting to hear your thoughts x
wow, that decade did a number
As someone who grew up using this site, it's hard to imagine that there may be a future generation that doesn't grow up watching youtube....
Children are already all watching Tik Tok a lot instead
Think about this. Those episodes of Cartoon Network you were wishing would play when you got home only to miss it by 30 minutes and now you have to wait for 3 days? A kid today will probably have an tablet of any sort, with media apps, whilst the parents keep the subscription for that platform. They can Bing watch an entire series in a few days. And never miss an episode
Damn, fam, I'm probably just 4-5 years older than you, and I'm part of the generation that didn't grow up with this site. We didn't miss much.
i believe so too.
As long as they dont grow up watching tik tok
I predict that in 10 years it will be 2032. Might sound crazy now but we'll see who will get the last laugh in ten years when I would've successfully predicted 2032.
*Wow, you will be predicting something no one will ever predict! That’s crazy of you!*
plot twist: historians find out jesus' birthdate was wrong and they change the calendar
I predict the end of civilization in 2088
Take off the tin foil hat
would be funny if they just skip a year or somethind and it'd be 2033 in ten years
Short form video is already winning
HUUUUGE respect for doing this.
Bro aged 30 years in 10 years
"UA-cam has now closed. Thank you for watching." Hits hard as a creative who grew up with/alongside UA-cam. The idea of this formative piece of my life being removed because the company behind it isn't making money anymore or whatever is super sad. I don't think it will come to that in the next 10 years but still, super not fun to think about. Love your stuff as always x
crowdfund a UA-cam trust fund, pool money and run it on the interest indefinitely
the thing is though that youtube has actually never made money. google can afford to run youtube at a deficit and always has done.
@@Nothing-pb8hu UA-cam made $15 billion in 2019 alone, and who knows how much more during the pandemic since everyone is at home
As nothing said, google looses money on UA-cam. What they gain from it is information. Google will only consider shutting down UA-cam if the amount of viewers declines too much. I have a feeling TikTok will start to stagnate before seriously harming UA-cam. There might, however, be a shift towards content with less editing on UA-cam as a result of Twitch and TikTok.
@@Nothing-pb8hu UA-cam has been profitable for some years now.
The thought of UA-cam shutting down is rather terrifying. So much of our modern culture is recorded here.
I was no longer using Yahoo mail when it ended premium accounts and didn't notice that memories I was archiving there was missing until it was irretrievably just gone. One day Flickr will probably do the same.
I'm almost sure UA-cam will one day start to delete videos too old and with not enough views or whatever
@@redtro8678 at the very least crushing the quality and deleting higher quality versions. Only 144p available with ultra high compression
flickr is still around?
There are still active communities on Flickr, especially for those in virtual worlds such Second Life--for blogging (although the line between influencer and blogging is blurred these days) and photographing, which I do. It's also easy due to their idiot bots or some asshats out there, for your account to be terminated and for you to lose all of those photos or blog posts. I made the mistake of putting all of my eggs in one basket there--spent most of last year regaining my following, and re-establishing the rep I had/have in SL.
Tom Scott
LOSER! I HAVE A BETTER VIDEO!
Defo tuning in to see the next 10 years
Wow, that ending very thought provoking. Not only with UA-cam, but with many other systems we rely on to hold memories. What happens when they are gone? How would people hundreds of years from now learn about us if they cannot access this major part of our society?
2022 Prediction: The school works on Disco.
Actual 2022: The schools work on DISCOrd and alternatives.
You were 2 characters off Tom, not that bad.
No school will use DISCOrd but instead zOOm and alternatives
@@jishnudayanidhi9326 that’s funny. My school has literally used discord before and I’ve seen other schools use it too. You’d be surprised with how ridiculous schools can be.
@@sauceboss3901 discord added a thing to put an edu email
@@sauceboss3901 "you'll be surprised how ridiculous schools can be" they never disappoint, do they 😂
@@jishnudayanidhi9326 Discord is quite popular among schools in Poland
UA-cam deserves some kind of protection like a world heritage site. It's one of the biggest libraries to ever exist, it would be an injustice to wipe perfectly logged history and education let alone the livelihoods of independent artists and content creators which rely on this platform to survive.
It literally won't shut down if it keeps generating revenue
There are some sites that saves many UA-cam videos
@@fos1451 youtube is run at a loss, so if anything happens to Google, well ggs
@@MsDestroyer900
UA-cam is run at a loss? Where do you even get that information
na, looking on what happened since 2016 on UA-cam I would say we should burn it to the ground and not look back. I think it is best to stop when something is awesome instead of continuing and making it worse and worse by the years.
This is a cool video! Thanks for looking back and giving your insights.
Already wrong about youtube video though as short form seems to becoming a bigger part of the platform and you can obviously monetize that directly via ads and the new subscribe/patreon like features.
Crazy how in the last year short form video has started to completely take over!
Tom has some of the most creative and engaging content I’ve seen on this platform. It’s always something different, new, and entertaining.
I agree
I agree
I agree
I agree
I agree
That's too scary to think about for me as a channel owner with more than 2000 videos on it. And if it does happen, I really really hope that the videos on this platform will still be archived somewhere.
Please keep personal backups. Google has a history of killing its products and UA-cam has not been making as much money as they want for years now.
Save your backups now, don’t count on google being reasonable about it.
E
There's many of us archiving videos we like or think are important, but no individual person has the means to host such a huge amount of content for so many people. If you don't have a personal archive of your stuff, start now. Storage is not that expensive. Redundancy is important.
You could convert them to mp4 files and put them on a hard drive if you wanted to
Bro aged 30 years inside 10 years 💀
How did you age 30 years in only 10 years?
Went from looking 19 to 49
@@spike7334 - 49 would be a LOT more lined than he is now. Your math is broken.
It's been an extremely rough 10 years for any intelligent adult.
Cause he time travels, he still ages even though he's in a different time, so when he returns to our time he's aged.
Past 3 years feel like a fever dream @@chrisrj9871
This is why I am concerned with products getting transmogrified into "services" with terms and conditions. Services that could be terminated at the provider's discretion without prior notice. Never get rid of a product when it is replaced by a service. Just hang on to your product. You never know when you will need it.
Absolutely. Not to mention, a good way to avoid this is to use libre/open source software wherever you can. Krita instead of Photoshop, Libreoffice instead of Office 365, Kdenlive instead of Premiere, and while you're at it why not switch to Linux? :) dual boots are easy to achieve, and 80% of people will find themselves gravitating to Linux once you know how to do everything. It's like all the good parts of macOS with even more freedom than Windows.
@@Cobalt985 I cautiously agree.
I'm really 'excited' about that whole prediction we only will get to rent cars, especially considering they should be darn near maintenance-free...
@@edherdman9973 eventually, once self-driving cars have progressed enough to become the norm, I could easily see a lot of people just getting self-driving Ubers or whatever every time they need to go somewhere. It would be so much easier than having to worry about maintenance or paying bills or whatever
In the future you will subscribe to everything.
I don't think UA-cam will ever be shutdown. The historical value of the information stored on this site is too great. They might slowly reduce the amount creators receive and save costs by further raising the bar for new uploads, but I just can't imagine the world without UA-cam for the next 20 years atleast. In the far future if it must be shutdown, I believe a lot of the videos will be archived.
Maybe they'll just phase out uploading so all the existing videos stay, but new ones can no longer be added
They said that about GeoCities...
Given what happens to so much old media combined with hosting costs I doubt it's possible that youtube would be archived indefinitely, just considering the sheer amount of videos.
They could keep that information but close it down for the public. They're on their legal right and it'd be far cheaper.
@@xerzy
"For $10000, you too can enjoy a three day free-form exploration through the audio-visual media consumed in the 21st century."
Some rich mcguffins would probably pay for the hosting...
5:00 not me watching this with bluetooth headphones
He got the “Is this you?” thing perfect on iPhones.
Always was interested in comparing old predictions to the actual reality
You'll love metaculus and other prediction markets
Especially when civilization was predicted to end in 2020. And 2012. And 2010. And 2000. And...
(You get the idea. )
I'm very surprised at how emotional I got seeing the "UA-cam has now closed" card at the end of the video. For the last ten years or so, its been a very big part of my life and has introduced me to more new loves and hobbies than I can count. In ten years, I'll be nearing 40 years old, and I'm curious to see whether UA-cam is still a big part of my life at that point.
Oof, you got me there bud. Same age, same thoughts.
I'm younger (25), but I felt the same way. Honestly, UA-cam was a formative influence for me and my age group, as well as a cultural touchstone for the rapidly changing times into which I was born. As such, my generation and I feel a strong personal connection to the site. I feel like shutting down UA-cam at any time would be politically difficult, though, due to the increasingly vast amount of personal and archaeological significance it bears. However, I could imagine that one day, people would be banned from uploading on this platform, so it would become a vast digital archive. I just can't imagine a world where Google users let Google get away with deleting UA-cam for good.
Rashly deleting all UA-cam would be akin to the fire of Alexandria. Enormous vacancy of knowledge would set humanity backwards for awhile.
For what it's worth, I think Google would be much more inclined to *sell* youtube than to just discontinue it if they decided it was no longer worth the effort to avoid all the bad press from nostalgic people, and since there are so many career youtubers it could very quickly cause a Lot of bad press.
@@Drekromancer 20 and same thoughts, but I don't think tik toks or any other short video form can't replace youtube.
I literally start to talk in British after watching your videos, I love them👍❤
How does this comment have no likes or replies in almost a year 😂
Interesting video. I’m very impressed. Well done.
Another small miss: Nowadays, it would be "Apple Life", not "iLife". Apple has been moving away from "i_____" branding for new products since at least the Apple Watch, since it was a difficult trademark to defend.
How was it difficult to defend?
@@3nertia can't just trademark the letter i
@@3nertia
Having the letter “i” in front of a word has infinitely more possible contexts than just being an Apple product. Because of that, other companies that want to use that kind of naming scheme would have an easier time defending themselves if Apple were to sue them.
Having “Apple” is a lot more specific to the brand and harder for a third party to justify using.
bro what is on ur profile
@@3nertia because the BMW I5 is not an apple product and neither is the book I robot.
That makes the prefix I not exclusive to apple products ad thus almost impossible to defend.
“I don’t like looking back at things I made in the past”
I relate so hard
💯
I think everyone relates
When I look back it usually has the n word in it
I do. It’s nice to remember a time when I still had energy, time and creativity…
Whenever I watch an old video by me I always get the urge of just redoing it from scratch. So many wrong things, bad editing and even mistakes in there.
its scary to see how fast these changes are already happening.
Twitter is increasingly becoming more profitable especially through "memes" or reactionary posts. Certain content creators are paying to be on top of the post comment thread by the poster interacting so that they can gain more engagement.
Adult content sites are also trying to join the short term content trend, so his guess of 10 years later is certainly already observable.
That being said the difference with long and short term content is how I know that I am being hooked, addicted to short term, whereas long term I am making a deliberate choice of whether if the video will be entertaining to me, rather than it being entertaining from the start and hooking me.
Much like how academic papers exist despite media company articles publishing a more concise, inaccurate summaries, I think long video formats will still be available in accordance to short term content. I think what will change the most is pacing in video. We already somewhat see this in hollywood cinema and how they focus on action rather than build up. UA-cam and other visual / auditory forms of media will likely transition the same way, by fitting more in the same video.
I might be speaking just a bunch of nonsense tho
Everybody acts like short form video and long form video are inherently competitors. I like the analogy to UA-cam vs TV vs radio.
I can see a future where podcasts, longform content and TikTok/UA-cam Shorts-like snippets of such content become fused in some sort of combined media platform. Right now UA-cam is easily the most versatile. We can get music, movie clips, shows, podcasts and gameplay streams all in one place, but they may not stay on top forever.
Your content is a prime example of excellent longform. Loved the cyberpunk retrospective!
They will they have a monopoly but the us government doesn't care
I think clips are going to become bigger. WAY bigger. Longform content is still required for others to make the clips, but I think some kind of integration of clips into the same destination as its parent content is kind of inevitable. Imagine videos or vods with 'clip reel' attached to them, kind of like the clip reels in twitch, but for all content, and there being crossplay of you being able to look at a clip and then continue the video from that point onwards, for example.
I think you got that right. But hey, 10 years from now is a long time.
How many subscribers can I get from this reply
Current 89
4:02 - not completely wrong - body worn cameras are common in some areas where staff interact with the public - police, security and others.
And it's more and more common for the general public to use dash-cams and the like in their cars/other modes of transport
@@PocketSinner and to install cameras at home. I have friends who have a camera inside the house so they can keep an eye on their dogs. Hell, even my 73 year old dad has installed a camera doorbell.
Like watch dogs?
Most police officers use camera on them
As long as it doesn't make our world turn into a global surveillance state.
Then again, considering people still refuse to listen to people like Edward Snowden, we're already getting there, just not exactly through camera surveillance.
1 year later, and short form is EVERYTHING
9:44 "There's no money in Twitter"
Oh man how badly i wanted this to be true