I love these videos and have been watching for over a year now. Please never burn yourself out. You're a gem in the rough world of information on this platform. stay sane
I actually like that he uses bland visuals and minimal audio (almost only his voice with little alteration or additional effects), it cuts down on the amount of time he has to spend on each video which goes a long way to fighting burnout
Yea, they need to multiply their investment manyfold and start lower in the tech chain instead of investing at the top. Invest in precision manufacturing tech, lasers, chemicals and materials, so that they have the technology to build on. You can't build a lithography machine if you can't make precision motors, etc. so you are doomed to failure. Taiwan has over 8,000 companies in the semiconductor supply industry. You are not going to catch up by investing in a few of the big status quo companies you already have. They would go bankrupt if they suddenly decided to stop using their established suppliers and have zero incentive to share any tech they develop such as metrology etc. This leads to every company having to reinvent the wheel and eats up the investment with little return spreading into the industry. I actually saw a video about a CNC machining company in China which built an "underground" factory and took several years to start at the bottom of the tech stack so that they could match western competitors. This is how you would need to go about building a semiconductor industry, but at a much larger scale. Each company focusing on a piece of the puzzle, and becoming suppliers for the next level up. You can have all the mega fabs in the world, but if you lack the software to design chips, you are not making anything. If each fab had to build their own software stack you are wasting billions of dollars instead of having 1-2 companies become the supplier for all of them.
@@excitedbox5705 Semiconductor design software is a tough market as well. As it stands, you can pirate a lot of the design software, and the big three rely on their high margin customers which are hard to sway. There is room for tools that improve flow control, integrate ML widgets, attempt analog APR, etc, but starting from scratch would leave many Chinese designers technically stranded from the outside ADE world unless their tools improved well past the existing ones.
@@excitedbox5705 with the Ungodly amounts of Money they have already spent, to the tune of hundreds of Billions. They could have just as easily bought the necessary people to make an euv machine. Instead they went local. Threw the money on the streets of China looking for Chinese who could build them an EUV. Nuts. How much does an engineer at ASML or Cymer make in their life time. Its definitely not a 100 million dollars. Hopefully they realized this sooner rather than later.
@@excitedbox5705 That aerospace chap looks like a good choice. Building a commercial passenger jet from scratch is on the same level as a modern fab I reckon.
2:24 I lived at the bottom-right corner of this place for my first 10 years after birth (it looked very different before 2008). Then I moved to close to 742 factory, which was later called Hua Jing 华晶 and I regularly went through the road in front of its headquarters 😃. The headquarters were a group of Soviet Russian style building blocks with brick-red roofs inside the city. The photo you showed at 1:37 was the fab outside the city in the 1990s. At the time of setting up this fab, 742 was already renamed into Hua Jing.
I'm a bit late to the party, but I very much appreciate your in-depth research, knowledge and no-frills style of imparting it to your audience. Thanks a lot!
Love this particular video. Fair, precise, condensed with reliable/sensible facts and figures. No bias, defamation (especially on China) etc. A lot of other "private" videos come from China (via VPN?) spreads mostly misleading, fabricated or simply dreadful lies on Chinese semiconductor technical advances. Circulating falsified hopes and misinformation bears serious responsibilites but there's no practical ways to weed them out. Semiconductor development is ultra complicated, needs years of joint efforts/genius/resources/prohibitive finances to beat countless hurdles, tricks and traps.
Great insight. Those "hedge fund" type guys are not there to cultivate the industry but to make monies from acquiring technologies (which failed) from the supply chain. I don't think any one those six people are semiconductor industry experts.
I wonder if there will be stricter regulations on IC sales as they become a larger part of the economy. I've been pretty shy about any IC shipping from china as they rarely test in tolerance. Especially components like high performance MOSFETS, operational amplifiers and voltage regulators. With tests suggesting that a chip labeled like a lt1084 voltage regulator actually being an lm317 that has been re etched. If they had the internal structures to combat the practice, there's a lot a value in sinosourced integrated circuits.
Thank you for putting together this video on one very important aspect of the Made in China 2025 policy. I know that your specialist area of expertise is semiconductors, but it would be interesting to learn more about how things are progressing with the other nine strategic industries named. This would give much-neede context to the overall success or failure of these policy goals. With regard to your comments on China Tobacco, that company is well worth a video in itself. Did you, for example, realise that Li Keqiang’s younger brother, Li Keming, was a vice director at the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration from 2003 to 2015, and it has been suggested that one of the main reasons that China was unwilling to implement smoking bans, because it would have directly impacted the wealth being generated for the Li family, despite the move likely saving millions of ordinary lives? The tobacco monopoly wields extraordinary power because it controls 98 percent of China’s vast cigarette market and provides an estimated 10 percent of government revenue. This is almost as amazing as Kweizhou Moutai, which now has a valuation greater than much more well known multi-nationals such as Exxon and Walmart. Perhaps this is where much of the money that Guiyang is investing in Big Data is coming from... Li was immediately appointed chairman of a supervisory committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, a ministry-level body that directly oversees 112 central government industrial and service conglomerates, so plenty of other money making opportunities there. Anyway, thanks again for another interesting and insightful video. Keep up the great work.
Funny you mention ONVIF , the open IP camera standard in which you must register as a vetted manufacturer , a critical detail. Most Chinese companies never register at all. Reality is the vast majority (85℅ +) of Chinese cameras being sold do not follow the "standards" set by them, that is beyond a skin deep level ONVIF compatibility for only the absolute minimum functionally - usually RTSP stream detection works with a crippled PTZ regime. If you open the XML from the ONVIF referrer details you'll see these cameras are all broken or half broken using a handful of bodged filler code chunks, cloned unique ID's, Model numbers, Firmware details etc. ONVIF is more a perfect example of how an industry standard can devolve into a half broken free for all, and that is due to exactly as stated above. The practice of China's business ethics has made the ONVIF consortium worse off. Diluting standardisation, can you still even call it a standard..... the cherry you get for free with these Chinese IP camera's is hard coded hidden root / admin credentials , undisclosed Internet facing debug ports, hidden Telnet exposure on non standard ports as default , UDP firewall hole punching P2P protocols that cannot be turned off dispite what you or your settings menu detail, and so on. Beyond that gift who even really knows what going into Unisoc or HiSilicon IC's at the foundry level. Actually, in some ways it is a pretty fitting example of Chinese tactics in tech
_"ONVIF is more a perfect example of how an industry standard can devolve into a half broken free for all...."_ Sure, but what's the alternative? At least with ONVIF you can tell whether a particular product is ONVIF-compliant by looking for its entry in the database of conformant products. Let's face it: every standard has a certain number of people or organisations trying to make some money by spending the minimum possible amount to appear to have implemented the standard. But customers overall are still better off with having the standard than not, so long as at least _some_ vendors implement it properly. (And this is why verification systems and trademarks are such an important part of standards setting, at least for consumer standards.)
Great and very informative video. However, I am confused by something: The charts showing the exports, imports, and size of China’s IC market and local production of IC’s, starting at 14:07, seem to be inconsistent. Specifically, the COMTRADE and IC Insights numbers seem to contradict each other by a factor of at least two. I realize they are not measuring the exact same thing, but that makes the numbers even worse, actually. How can Chinese exports of IC’s be several times higher than Chinese production of IC’s, for example?
Many manufacturers use China as a final assembly point. Manufacture actual chips elsewhere, solder them on the board in China, export the actual end product which is easily several times more valuable than the chip itself. This will likely account for at least some of the discrepancy.
@15:05 He states that only about 40% of exported chips are produced by Chinese headquartered companies (i.e. about 60% of exported chips are produced in China fabs but by companies that create the chip design that are based outside of China). I don’t know if that helps explain the discrepancy you mention.
@@luckyo11 seems like China can also prioritize the Chinese market to chips made or assemble in China. I am sure they can assemble the chips elsewhere. But without the Chinese market you don't need to make more chips. That means the other half of the world I assume Europe, Japan and five eyes have to pay much more to buy US chips.
Two things are missing in this analysis. - Long term if money are thrown constantly into some business it attracts talents. Sooner or later some companies will make their names if... - Americas embargo is huge boon for Chines manufacturers as Chinese companies preferred western products and Chinese new comers could not find market... until now.
Well would you be surprised if I told you China isn't ANYWHERE European nations ???? ASML alone needed decades of cooperation with universities and nearby European neighbors and US company to get where they are! And they still are pumping in BILLIONS in R&D to advance further! China simply doesn't have that particular European ecosystem of shared cooperation, nor is Chinese academic output (needed for R&D in this industry) nearly as excellent as their European competitors. China' academic output is sloppy, not nearly as inquisitive and doesn't force innovation.
@@abyyy490 I am saying the whole Chinese academic institutions are decades behind their Western counterparts, nor do they have this INTERNATIONAL mentality where you need to cooperate to come to a better end goal. China punishes innovation, with their culture by not tolerating academics/ professionals to QUESTION current practices and QUESTION current process work flows.
So if you love what you do and you're good at it, they will FORCE YOU into a managment position and make you believe it's a "promotion". Otherwise that was your GOAL to begin with and you get REWARDED for being ruthless and corrupt. It's that the lesson our societies are teaching us? All hail the Almighty Dollar!
wow this is interesting for me, one thing that popped into my brain though, how does this square with the fact that I've heard multiple times in the past that china has the monopoly on rare earth elements that are essential for semiconductor industry as a whole? did they fail to take advantage from that or what? I thought with such important advantage, they would have an easier way to gain leadership on the industry...
No such advantage. It's just China had more mines already developed but other countries can open up their reserves. Not to mention such blatant threat to globalization will lead to others quickly looking for alternatives.
What hilarious about the high tech sector is that it costs so much time and money to develop and perfect. Only to eventually fall prey to clear paradigm shifts like when transistors came into being. New theories in computing like quantum Logic gates, actual quantum entanglement in circuits, crystalline 3d data storage with no practical limits to read/write speeds, etc etc. Would make current computing hardware look like vacuum tubes overnight. That’s why only a flexible industrial base that isn’t married to some sort of long term government plan will always win out.
Quantum computers still have a long way to go. Even if they are successfully commercialized, it’s unlikely that they’ll replace all other forms of computers, especially classical von Neumann architecture. Yes, we are indeed seeing a plethora of emerging new domain specific architectures, but they are not completely de novo approaches.
Hi Jon i have only recently fallen into the habit of whatching your channel starting i am what you call alow level atari generation geek but your vids are absorbing and a very wide area of intrest also not being even a vistor to your part of the world still find myself intrested in the content recently i watched a vid you made about a FAB in north east England wich was a lot better than what local journalisum came up with i was naively wondering if you could express any insights into the Newport fab in Wales my geographic area i.e. is it a valid security risk for the U.K would make my day if i even got a reply many thanks Gareth
Semiconductor is a strategic assets. China has no choice but to go head in to develop their own semiconductor technologies at every level because the west, especially America will not allow China access to these advanced technologies. There have been many naysayers in the past that China can never achieve certain technical know how and they have been proven wrong. There is nothing physically stopping China from getting those tech and they certainly have the money, talent and baseline to develop them. The only thing they don't have is the luxury of time and they are likely going to be always one gen behind the west for the bear future. China has no choice but to develop this. A large component of their defense is going to be AI powered spy satellites which will be vital to completing the kill chain for their long range antiship ballistic missiles. Now that America is blocking China from acquiring AI accelerated chips from Nvidia, it is a matter of national security of utmost urgency for their AShBM to be a credible deterrence against US aggression. They have no choice but to forge ahead. It can mean a matter of life and death for hundreds of millions of Chinese if they cannot stop the USN right outside the second island chain when America turn fascist.
Open technical standards are in the spirit of open source.. as the video reminds us. And various people of different companies talk to each other more than we're told, ..as the group of companies have a non political practice. The related companies have a click type circle of people like silicon valleys people share intellectual information with others before politics would try to interfere. Hopefully this is true more than our US superiority complex realizes. Trying to contain the inevitable is not possible. The higher IQ levels in China and Singapore, rank 1st and 2nd, and 5 times more people combined efforts are inevitably growing faster than any country in history. This is only what my mentors said years ago when China was beginning to overtake cheap Walmart products. Before that he always joked about "made in Japan" or made in W Germany was popular when he grew up. Things that are more affordable and outlast, even if some things break which people complain about to easily,, mostly are improved by the country's producer, as tecent decades we noticed China being the factory floor of the world. And now with the commonly lnown practices of open technical standards or open ware in technology business, our US isn't able to stop many people just talking amongst the circles of people who know others in the related companies.
But can China compete with West without modicum of liberties to its brilliant minds and souls? For example recent news reports from South China Morning posts pointed out unfreedom as major obstacle in China especially in its inability to come with ideas and visions like Chatgpt. The Western technological edge is result of international teamwork of talents unless such environment opens up in China, i cannot foresee any changes in technological status quo. Of course, China can be efficient in building bridges and major dams but Pyramids and Pharaohs like Xi Jingping became obsolete in world politics centuries ago.
@@avbhinaya People have said the same thing about jet engines, the Three Gorges Dam, the space station and numerous other stuff that China has no way of ever achieving for the last 50 years.
You should make a video on the latest restrictions that Biden has imposed on Chinese semiconductor imports of US tech/equipment. I would love to listen to your view on how it will effect the industry.
cant China be manufacturing RISC-V chips instead? theyre an open standard and the widespread adoption of it on chinese mobile phones would accelerate their adoption?
All the software compatibility issue have to be solved as well. So far I've seen several major chinese software companies are porting their products to support RISC-V but it will take some time to achieve full adoption.
@@leezhieng yup, as all new instruction standards do, its gonna take time to sort out the bugs. Hopefully we see a competitive chip market in the future, with better software abstraction so it doesn't affect the end consumer.
The US prison industry itself is actually a profit center. Also, jailing executives is considered "bad for the economy". There was a time when lots of US executives indeed went to prison under the investigations of Ferdinand Pecora in the 1930s. The pendulum needs to swing back!
@@Ateshtesh India is obviously is a smaller democracy than China then. Chinese people are invited to participate in the process in higher numbers than anywhere else in the world.
@@GoodBaleadaMusic completely agreed Mechanism to evaluate governors make a better governance. Countries self-called "democracies" over the world are actually "popularity contest driven governments" instead of real democracy. But they believe they are the only way and the real democracy. That happen when the ideology is over the pragmatism and the way to do the things are more important that the result.
10:00 oh now something seem to make sense for me, some time ago China seemed to have some problems with vw, maybe they startedto implement this process, maybe not, but could make sense Also, I really like your work, keep it up!
this is a great channel but there are also a few misinformations, 1) the 7n equivalent of SMIC is N+1, N+2 is their 5nm equivalent which is likely not in production ... yet, 2) SMEE did already shipped the supposed 5nm capable 28nm DUV machine in 2021, they kept a low profile for many reasons.
The big expensive investments are magnets for corruption and personal gains. Every conceivable scheme is used. An example earlier in this blog discusses a company which got the funds and used it for real estate investments. This systematic corruption is at every level. Well keep investing. Netherlands, Japan, US are happy to take the $.
EXACTLY AS I HAVE STATED. THE EUROPEANS ALSO NEED OTHERS TO BUILD A SEMICONDUCTOR FAB. THE EUROPEANS ARE TRYING TO GIVE IMPRESSION AS IF THEY HAVE TO COMPLETE FABRICATION PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES.
Looks like stumbling along with failures along the way, but still toward the inevitable destination. Those who try will eventually succeed. Their production has increased rapidly, but so has demand.
This isn't clear from the presentation. The end charts tell a slightly different story than the one you are painting. In other words, domestic consumption is currently outpacing domestic production, especially in high-in-demand product categories.
I think the contribution of this channel calls for scrutiny as it over states issues on China and other countries but is not aware or its deliberate misinformation on US corruption incidents such as the Congress Speaker and or present President who employ their children in facilitating business using state transport and facilities. All big projects will always have overflows and such cases are the rationale to have a supervisory system. One think both nations are doing in over production will downgrade this industry.
The problem is that there has to be people that spend the money, otherwise the enconomy is going to stop. It's just never to be a self incentive enconomy environment. So the fund even with huge flaw and very likely incure benefits exchange and corruption, yet indeed it pushes the china integrated circuit industrials.
Recently there are quite a few of them doing well despite others' failure. For example Beijing Moore Threads who released their own GPU and AI chips recently.
@@leezhieng I fully agreed and actually it is indeed that the fund could grant great purchase power for China to purchase GPU Imagination and secure the GPU cores to be readily available for company like Moore Thread (which is sales teams leader from NVIDIA Found this company) or BIRENTECH
Let's the facts speak for themselves. China now can mass produce 28nm and 14nm chips, which are the bulk of the chip usages in Chin and in the world. It can produce limited quantity of 7nm chips, uncovered in some bitcoin mining machines (I guess it was used to test on its capability). In addition, China can produce 28nm Lith Machines, used for 28nm chip and 14nm chip making. It is known that with multiple exposure process, it can produce 7nm chips, with less than desirable success rate. Note that because China has been mass producing 28nm and 14nm chips, the chip inventory in South Korea Samsung and Taiwan TSMC are no longer in short supply. For 7nm chips that are used by expensive flagship phones, it still posts a challenge to China's chip industry. But I am confident that within two years, it will be a concern of the past. Samsung and TSMC will still dominate the 7nm chip sector for a while, and they are will be way ahead in 5nm and 3nm chip making. But let's be realistic, 5nm and 3nm chips are more for marketing, their gain in function is much less than stellar. There are news that TSMC are moving into 2nm chip sector. But no one is interested. The cost and the return are not reasonable for 2nm chips for a long time. That means China can slowly catch up, eventually dominate the 7nm and 5nm chip market. The real challenge for China is the paten-heavy communication chips made by Qualcomm and other US chip companies. EDA software banning is also a challenge, but China can move slowly with its own EDA software. But these problems can be resolved with exception. These US companies have huge political lobby groups. All in all, I really don't think chip making is a serious challenge for China now. It was 5 years ago when Trump started the trade war. But 5 years later, the ones really get hurt are Samsung, TSMC and many US companies. China always wins. That is because it does not depend on others to sell them stuff ... they make their own stuff, be it tool or final product.
I do believe china will become self sufficient in this semiconductor field. But i dont think china will achieve it's goal of 70% of self reliancy by 2025. Even in 2020 chip imports make upto 80% of china's domestic market. Maybe around 2030 or so china will reach it's goal
Nope, China is heavily dependent on imported tech for their current advances. You have to remember that until the sanctions were tightened, they were already able to acquire plenty of asml machines. So what we are probably seeing right now is that the Chinese companies are starting to use those machines.
China knows that its greatest economic gains come from mature nodes which is less glamorous, but within the real realm of producing profits and results. The cutting edge like TSMC has stumbled a bit as companies like Apple pulled back their efforts to use 3nm chips from TSMC to use 5nm node chips. TSMC looks like it took two steps back and one step forward by focusing some attention on mature nodes recently. It's US efforts sound like they could fail. Having said that, most small companies entering a new sector of growth, fail for a lots of reason, mostly for lack of funds to meet their ambitions. Even mundane sectors have failures. Most people are not interested in these failures but are occupied with trying to find the successes. That is true for the semiconductor sector. I personally think that China's learning curve is coming up fast now and faster in the future as it gains more experience and the technology shifts to newer factors that come into play where China is at the same starting line as the west. In silicon, it is playing catch up. Newer substrates, newer light wave technologies could change the whole dimension of semiconductors but that remains to be seen. Your videos are an excellent example of definitive facts and information for those of us interested in technology, especially in the China vs US competition.
I heard Morris Chang has finally come around to understanding the future is mainland China. I think they are going to build a new fab there or something. It's basically an admission the Arizona project is a failure. The firm got burnt via the subsidy game getting political.
Nomination Policy SINO ICT: Selection Criteria 2.1 The factors listed below would be used as reference by the Nomination • Diversity in all its aspects, including but not limited to gender, age, cultural and educational background, ethnicity, professional experience, skills, knowledge and length of service... the result ? 99% ethnics Han ...
It's somewhat different. It's more like "become immune to any foreign monopoly's intervention". Becoming a monopoly itself is one of the many ways to achieve this goal.
China is inexperienced in semiconductor development. The US sanctions and the corruption fund failure really gives China guidance in what works and what doesn't.
Beijing Moore Threads, a new startup company in the midst of US sanction released their own high end GPU and AI chips just 2 months ago. I don't know what you're talking about.
@@leezhieng the point is they're just a fabless design company using Architecture developed by Foreign Companies. If at all they really plan to be independent, they should start from scratch
Don't think Mainland China will catch up in the short term. EUV lithography, development started in 1985, EUV LLC was formed in 1997, it's 2011 before ASML NXE:3100 is ready, so 26 years from EUV research to 1st EUV Lithography machine. In the medium/long term, it's anybody's guess, as countries recognized the strategic importance of semiconductors and new players are trying to enter the game, like India (whose media proclaim it's a superpower in 2020 and Modi received the UNESCO Best PM Award). China has the second-mover advantage, but so does other players/countries looking to enter the space.
China is catching up very fast.. Time is not linear..it is harder to invent the wheel than reinvent it. However..you forgot that these foreign players are actually earning money from chips , lithography etc.. This is what the West is not revealing. For every Huawei phone..for example..Taiwan earns from Chips sales..US earns from apps. Not all profits go to China. So..if China simply advance everything to self-sufficiency..then other countries won't collaborate with China and only be direct competition. For all we know.. China already has the technologies..but just not mass producing it.. more like keeping it all in pace.
dude the india thing is just a meme. people need to stop taking it seriousl;y. china is serious competitor because its the second largest economy and arch enemy of america. big difference
@@rodrozil6544 Thats why I said China have second-mover advantage. Because its second, it already knows what technologies work, it can concentrate in those area, instead of trailblazer that need to fund 10 different avenues before a path opens up.
Catch up doesn't necessarily mean catching up in EUV lithography. China didn't catch up to Germany and Japan in car making by beating them in internal combustion engine technology. It leapfrogged by betting on EVs instead. There will be a next big thing after EUV, and China will have a much better chance to take the lead in the next generation of semiconductor technologies.
I was talking about the pros and cons of open source software like Linux the other day. I was saying that it allows China to just walk into industries that would otherwise be controlled by western companies. My friend thought that the benefits still far outway the downsides. All the same, I worry that China will abuse open standards like RISC-V to try to dominate in the design of microcontrollers
@@keyboardt8276 it's only a downside if you're a (western) monopolist.. as it threatens your monopoly. Problem for libertarian westerners (which also have trouble with China) is the monopolist agenda that China represents. Single party rule is political monopolism. Centrally planned economic activity is monopolism.
How do you abuse a standard that's open? Nobody can block you from using it, and nobody can force you to use it. If you insist on platforms that are not open, you block out a lot more than China, you also choke your own startups. As we can see from Google and Android, even a company built on the so called "Do no evil", eventually succumb to the commercial lure of monopolistic behavior.
@@joansparky4439 I'm not opposed to opensource. I run Linux on all my computers. I'm not even that opposed to tech transfers when it is a democratic country doing it but when you're talking about a country with a value system that is the antithesis to everything good in the world you better believe I'm a western monopolist.
us lock-out efforts overt or covert....reminds me of the days of DVD-stds --> no one uses DVDs today. Open-stds = motivated inventors ...these are the guys to foster. The founder of China's space program was badly mistreated by the us-officials when he returned home he was highly motivated usa is motivating others in the world to do better hope they do so.
China has several highly capable companies, perhaps Huawei is most notable. But, when the company is design only products and production are limited by any deals with a fab.
Not totally made in China. They recycle parts. new and old parts but they don't invent and manufacture them. hey cannibalized parts, reassemble, and relabel, as Made in China.
China is like any other Asian nation - Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore. What makes China formidable is the size of their population and the fact that they have developed core technology competency.
Wow, Chinese semiconductor initiative since 1950s. Surely China by now has superior semiconductor capacity just waiting to be brought to the public market. China can afford to keep quiet about their actual state of technological development which probably is the main reason for why western experts are taken by surprise by Chinese technological progress again and again.
China will always get 🐓blocked by the US, because they don't want to play by their rules, which is good. It will make for a more interesting geo political show, how the Chinese will come up with new ways to develop their industries and show the US that they have big 🐓's too 🤣🤣🤣. All show!
US monopoly has been "less harmful" than the other eras of multipolarity,and we know what China has been like whenever they were at the top,basically acting like a giant protection racket with their tribute system
Many China people always like talk big. Even other people were already awkward, they just don't care and don't stop. No matter how they boast their semiconductor tech, no matter how much money spent, they still need equipment from U.S & Japan. Once U.S government forbidden machine and parts export to China, produce by AMAT/KLA/LAM, then any semiconductor company have no choice but stop operation. I even do not mention about the most important company ASML, actually many critical lithography parts are also from U.S. Even tsmc's chairman Mark claim that tsmc must operate by support from U.S & Japan. So how could China can develop semiconductor tech by themselves. They just need a patriotic project name to steal money from government. Many foolish Chinese really believe that their great mother country's boast, so poor and shame.
Any time there are piles of cash in China, there will be people trying to get a cut, a bribe, a payoff. The fund had so much cash, I wonder if everybody figured it was a limitless pile of money and went in for a dip, until there wasn't enough money left to perform the fund's mission. But even all the money wasn't enough. China want to succeed in this industry, and may eventually do so. But there are multiple nations and hundreds of companies who have every incentive to block, obfuscate, and derail this effort. They all saw what happened to solar cells. They're not stupid.
Thank you for this requested video. I would have appreciated more if you were more specific on how IPs was stolen, and how key technology personnels were recruited and why China still failed in achieving their semiconductor technology objectives even with the recruited foreign workers. By providing semiconductor news in Chinese to English speaking target audience Asianometry provides valuable service. Semiconductor engineers from foreign countries can defend themselves from unscrupulous recruiting tactics by Chinese semiconductor firms. Foreign technology firms can protect their IPs. This will benefit semiconductor industry and the humanity. When Asianometry stick with technological topics of Chinese language news without bashing other Asian countries and resist temptation to discuss non-Chinese Asian topic then the creator does provide valuable service. Thank you.
China is good at two things, scale and cheap labor. All the industries they have succeeded in require either both or one of these 2. But semi-conductor chip require another thing, yield. It doesn't matter how many wafers you can churn out if only 1% of them work. And to increase yield, takes engineering, a real understanding of how the line work, tons of talent and hard-skill to make individual equipment to work together. It just isn't the case of buying the equipment, hiring 1 or 2 of the people from the company and throwing a ton of cheap labor to get it working. Even the minute different in local electrical supply can result in change of the yield. That's what at play when your stuff goes to the nanometer...
No matter what, I have complete confidence in China and the Chinese Communist Party. China will be self sufficient in semiconductor industry. I also have confidence in reunification with Taiwan.
China has been stupid with their chip tech. They mastered 14nm yet didn't do anything with it. They could have been the top manufacturer of specialized older tech. It is still used in a lot of products. What would happen if China became number one in hardened 14nm chips. No more worry of solar flares or electrical discharge. They could have been come specialists for space travel chips. You don't need the cutting edge for navigation or fundamental base controls. Or on Mars. You do need hardened chips though. they could have specialized in other ways as well. Too busy screwing each other.
They could have run wild in the car chip industry. But then their workers would have to get good COVID vaccines so they don't overwhelm their frail hospital system. Pride keeps them out. Maybe they could have gotten by with just COVAX if they weren't so proud. Would even Sputnik V work?
A typical response by a fundamentally ideological person making allegations & aspersions against those who actually think, work & produce real, physical &, more importantly, useful products. In todays' age, indispensable....
A lot of the things you read out as if they are fact, are just plain wrong. The information on the 50's to the 90's in this one, for example, is rather laughable. But I guess a lot of people will listen to you as if you know what you are talking about. Doing internet armchair google research and pasting it all together for the usual 15-20min youtube video, is not how you make a valid documentary. You actually have to know and to talk to experts and engineers in the field who can fact check your claims.
I love these videos and have been watching for over a year now. Please never burn yourself out. You're a gem in the rough world of information on this platform. stay sane
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Patreon is a really good way to keep creators motivated. :)
A.G.I Will be man's last invention
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I actually like that he uses bland visuals and minimal audio (almost only his voice with little alteration or additional effects), it cuts down on the amount of time he has to spend on each video which goes a long way to fighting burnout
To be fair, the fund's goal is just no longer realistic due to the dramatic increase in both the volume and price of semiconductor products.
Yea, they need to multiply their investment manyfold and start lower in the tech chain instead of investing at the top. Invest in precision manufacturing tech, lasers, chemicals and materials, so that they have the technology to build on. You can't build a lithography machine if you can't make precision motors, etc. so you are doomed to failure. Taiwan has over 8,000 companies in the semiconductor supply industry. You are not going to catch up by investing in a few of the big status quo companies you already have. They would go bankrupt if they suddenly decided to stop using their established suppliers and have zero incentive to share any tech they develop such as metrology etc. This leads to every company having to reinvent the wheel and eats up the investment with little return spreading into the industry.
I actually saw a video about a CNC machining company in China which built an "underground" factory and took several years to start at the bottom of the tech stack so that they could match western competitors. This is how you would need to go about building a semiconductor industry, but at a much larger scale. Each company focusing on a piece of the puzzle, and becoming suppliers for the next level up. You can have all the mega fabs in the world, but if you lack the software to design chips, you are not making anything. If each fab had to build their own software stack you are wasting billions of dollars instead of having 1-2 companies become the supplier for all of them.
@@excitedbox5705 Great comment
@@excitedbox5705 Semiconductor design software is a tough market as well. As it stands, you can pirate a lot of the design software, and the big three rely on their high margin customers which are hard to sway. There is room for tools that improve flow control, integrate ML widgets, attempt analog APR, etc, but starting from scratch would leave many Chinese designers technically stranded from the outside ADE world unless their tools improved well past the existing ones.
@@excitedbox5705 with the Ungodly amounts of Money they have already spent, to the tune of hundreds of Billions.
They could have just as easily bought the necessary people to make an euv machine.
Instead they went local. Threw the money on the streets of China looking for Chinese who could build them an EUV. Nuts.
How much does an engineer at ASML or Cymer make in their life time. Its definitely not a 100 million dollars.
Hopefully they realized this sooner rather than later.
@@excitedbox5705 That aerospace chap looks like a good choice. Building a commercial passenger jet from scratch is on the same level as a modern fab I reckon.
Respect! I am in the industry and I am impressed by your research and the detail of your knowledge!
Please keep making these videos, your background research work is absolutely amazing!
2:24 I lived at the bottom-right corner of this place for my first 10 years after birth (it looked very different before 2008). Then I moved to close to 742 factory, which was later called Hua Jing 华晶 and I regularly went through the road in front of its headquarters 😃. The headquarters were a group of Soviet Russian style building blocks with brick-red roofs inside the city. The photo you showed at 1:37 was the fab outside the city in the 1990s. At the time of setting up this fab, 742 was already renamed into Hua Jing.
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Thank you for making these videos.
Without a doubt one if not the most informative economic tech channels on UA-cam!
I'm a bit late to the party, but I very much appreciate your in-depth research, knowledge and no-frills style of imparting it to your audience. Thanks a lot!
+1
Love this particular video. Fair, precise, condensed with reliable/sensible facts and figures. No bias, defamation (especially on China) etc. A lot of other "private" videos come from China (via VPN?) spreads mostly misleading, fabricated or simply dreadful lies on Chinese semiconductor technical advances. Circulating falsified hopes and misinformation bears serious responsibilites but there's no practical ways to weed them out. Semiconductor development is ultra complicated, needs years of joint efforts/genius/resources/prohibitive finances to beat countless hurdles, tricks and traps.
Im just asking a question, would opensource RISC-V save Chinese electronics from failure?
Chinese companies have developed a number of RISC-V CPUs but most are still fabbed by companies like TSMC
Great insight. Those "hedge fund" type guys are not there to cultivate the industry but to make monies from acquiring technologies (which failed) from the supply chain. I don't think any one those six people are semiconductor industry experts.
I wonder if there will be stricter regulations on IC sales as they become a larger part of the economy. I've been pretty shy about any IC shipping from china as they rarely test in tolerance. Especially components like high performance MOSFETS, operational amplifiers and voltage regulators. With tests suggesting that a chip labeled like a lt1084 voltage regulator actually being an lm317 that has been re etched. If they had the internal structures to combat the practice, there's a lot a value in sinosourced integrated circuits.
Already happening.
Yet another incredibly high quality report. Thanks again !!!
Great video! Could you add to your next videos timestamps for easier skipping to parts?
Thank you for putting together this video on one very important aspect of the Made in China 2025 policy. I know that your specialist area of expertise is semiconductors, but it would be interesting to learn more about how things are progressing with the other nine strategic industries named. This would give much-neede context to the overall success or failure of these policy goals.
With regard to your comments on China Tobacco, that company is well worth a video in itself. Did you, for example, realise that Li Keqiang’s younger brother, Li Keming, was a vice director at the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration from 2003 to 2015, and it has been suggested that one of the main reasons that China was unwilling to implement smoking bans, because it would have directly impacted the wealth being generated for the Li family, despite the move likely saving millions of ordinary lives? The tobacco monopoly wields extraordinary power because it controls 98 percent of China’s vast cigarette market and provides an estimated 10 percent of government revenue. This is almost as amazing as Kweizhou Moutai, which now has a valuation greater than much more well known multi-nationals such as Exxon and Walmart. Perhaps this is where much of the money that Guiyang is investing in Big Data is coming from...
Li was immediately appointed chairman of a supervisory committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, a ministry-level body that directly oversees 112 central government industrial and service conglomerates, so plenty of other money making opportunities there.
Anyway, thanks again for another interesting and insightful video. Keep up the great work.
So - t has been suggested? Is it true?
@@petergilkes7082 Which part?
The part you said about.
@@petergilkes7082 Yes, all 100% fact!
@@christopherd.winnan8701 Wow!
The painting at the beginning of this video is the north area of Taipei City under Japan's rule back to 1935.
It is his regular background I think.
this video is absolutely amazing. keep going! greetings from Argentina
Funny you mention ONVIF , the open IP camera standard in which you must register as a vetted manufacturer , a critical detail.
Most Chinese companies never register at all. Reality is the vast majority (85℅ +) of Chinese cameras being sold do not follow the "standards" set by them, that is beyond a skin deep level ONVIF compatibility for only the absolute minimum functionally - usually RTSP stream detection works with a crippled PTZ regime. If you open the XML from the ONVIF referrer details you'll see these cameras are all broken or half broken using a handful of bodged filler code chunks, cloned unique ID's, Model numbers, Firmware details etc.
ONVIF is more a perfect example of how an industry standard can devolve into a half broken free for all, and that is due to exactly as stated above. The practice of China's business ethics has made the ONVIF consortium worse off.
Diluting standardisation, can you still even call it a standard.....
the cherry you get for free with these Chinese IP camera's is hard coded hidden root / admin credentials , undisclosed Internet facing debug ports, hidden Telnet exposure on non standard ports as default , UDP firewall hole punching P2P protocols that cannot be turned off dispite what you or your settings menu detail, and so on. Beyond that gift who even really knows what going into Unisoc or HiSilicon IC's at the foundry level.
Actually, in some ways it is a pretty fitting example of Chinese tactics in tech
_"ONVIF is more a perfect example of how an industry standard can devolve into a half broken free for all...."_
Sure, but what's the alternative? At least with ONVIF you can tell whether a particular product is ONVIF-compliant by looking for its entry in the database of conformant products.
Let's face it: every standard has a certain number of people or organisations trying to make some money by spending the minimum possible amount to appear to have implemented the standard. But customers overall are still better off with having the standard than not, so long as at least _some_ vendors implement it properly. (And this is why verification systems and trademarks are such an important part of standards setting, at least for consumer standards.)
Man im surprised i've never heard of this industry before.
Quality content a lot of knowledge 🔥🔥keep it up vrother
Great and very informative video. However, I am confused by something:
The charts showing the exports, imports, and size of China’s IC market and local production of IC’s, starting at 14:07, seem to be inconsistent. Specifically, the COMTRADE and IC Insights numbers seem to contradict each other by a factor of at least two. I realize they are not measuring the exact same thing, but that makes the numbers even worse, actually. How can Chinese exports of IC’s be several times higher than Chinese production of IC’s, for example?
Many manufacturers use China as a final assembly point. Manufacture actual chips elsewhere, solder them on the board in China, export the actual end product which is easily several times more valuable than the chip itself. This will likely account for at least some of the discrepancy.
@15:05 He states that only about 40% of exported chips are produced by Chinese headquartered companies (i.e. about 60% of exported chips are produced in China fabs but by companies that create the chip design that are based outside of China). I don’t know if that helps explain the discrepancy you mention.
@@luckyo11 seems like China can also prioritize the Chinese market to chips made or assemble in China. I am sure they can assemble the chips elsewhere. But without the Chinese market you don't need to make more chips. That means the other half of the world I assume Europe, Japan and five eyes have to pay much more to buy US chips.
Quality content. a usual Thanks a lot !!!
Two things are missing in this analysis.
- Long term if money are thrown constantly into some business it attracts talents. Sooner or later some companies will make their names if...
- Americas embargo is huge boon for Chines manufacturers as Chinese companies preferred western products and Chinese new comers could not find market... until now.
Well would you be surprised if I told you China isn't ANYWHERE European nations ???? ASML alone needed decades of cooperation with universities and nearby European neighbors and US company to get where they are! And they still are pumping in BILLIONS in R&D to advance further! China simply doesn't have that particular European ecosystem of shared cooperation, nor is Chinese academic output (needed for R&D in this industry) nearly as excellent as their European competitors. China' academic output is sloppy, not nearly as inquisitive and doesn't force innovation.
@@ABC-ABC1234 "doesn't force innovation" okay gotcha from where you are coming from.
@@abyyy490 I am saying the whole Chinese academic institutions are decades behind their Western counterparts, nor do they have this INTERNATIONAL mentality where you need to cooperate to come to a better end goal. China punishes innovation, with their culture by not tolerating academics/ professionals to QUESTION current practices and QUESTION current process work flows.
I'm just confused why they don't fire people instead of arresting them on corruption charges lol
So if you love what you do and you're good at it, they will FORCE YOU into a managment position and make you believe it's a "promotion".
Otherwise that was your GOAL to begin with and you get REWARDED for being ruthless and corrupt.
It's that the lesson our societies are teaching us?
All hail the Almighty Dollar!
I woudl be interested in some sort of deep dive on self driving cars.
wow this is interesting for me, one thing that popped into my brain though, how does this square with the fact that I've heard multiple times in the past that china has the monopoly on rare earth elements that are essential for semiconductor industry as a whole? did they fail to take advantage from that or what? I thought with such important advantage, they would have an easier way to gain leadership on the industry...
No such advantage. It's just China had more mines already developed but other countries can open up their reserves. Not to mention such blatant threat to globalization will lead to others quickly looking for alternatives.
Self sufficiency is insufficient. Inputs from abroad and external markets are always needed.
What hilarious about the high tech sector is that it costs so much time and money to develop and perfect. Only to eventually fall prey to clear paradigm shifts like when transistors came into being.
New theories in computing like quantum Logic gates, actual quantum entanglement in circuits, crystalline 3d data storage with no practical limits to read/write speeds, etc etc. Would make current computing hardware look like vacuum tubes overnight.
That’s why only a flexible industrial base that isn’t married to some sort of long term government plan will always win out.
Quantum computers still have a long way to go. Even if they are successfully commercialized, it’s unlikely that they’ll replace all other forms of computers, especially classical von Neumann architecture. Yes, we are indeed seeing a plethora of emerging new domain specific architectures, but they are not completely de novo approaches.
“ASML needs Zeiss of Switzerland” and which other company from the US? Saimer? Cimer? Zaimer?
The tobacco industry probably gave them money because of semiconductors used in e-cigarettes.
Hi Jon i have only recently fallen into the habit of whatching your channel starting i am what you call alow level atari generation geek but your vids are absorbing and a very wide area of intrest also not being even a vistor to your part of the world still find myself intrested in the content recently i watched a vid you made about a FAB in north east England wich was a lot better than what local journalisum came up with i was naively wondering if you could express any insights into the Newport fab in Wales my geographic area i.e. is it a valid security risk for the U.K
would make my day if i even got a reply many thanks Gareth
Semiconductor is a strategic assets. China has no choice but to go head in to develop their own semiconductor technologies at every level because the west, especially America will not allow China access to these advanced technologies.
There have been many naysayers in the past that China can never achieve certain technical know how and they have been proven wrong. There is nothing physically stopping China from getting those tech and they certainly have the money, talent and baseline to develop them. The only thing they don't have is the luxury of time and they are likely going to be always one gen behind the west for the bear future.
China has no choice but to develop this. A large component of their defense is going to be AI powered spy satellites which will be vital to completing the kill chain for their long range antiship ballistic missiles. Now that America is blocking China from acquiring AI accelerated chips from Nvidia, it is a matter of national security of utmost urgency for their AShBM to be a credible deterrence against US aggression.
They have no choice but to forge ahead. It can mean a matter of life and death for hundreds of millions of Chinese if they cannot stop the USN right outside the second island chain when America turn fascist.
Open technical standards are in the spirit of open source..
as the video reminds us.
And various people of different companies talk to each other more than we're told,
..as the group of companies have a non political practice.
The related companies have a click type circle of people like silicon valleys people share intellectual information with others before politics would try to interfere.
Hopefully this is true more than our US superiority complex realizes.
Trying to contain the inevitable is not possible.
The higher IQ levels in China and Singapore, rank 1st and 2nd, and 5 times more people combined efforts are inevitably growing faster than any country in history.
This is only what my mentors said years ago when China was beginning to overtake cheap Walmart products. Before that he always joked about "made in Japan" or made in W Germany was popular when he grew up.
Things that are more affordable and outlast, even if some things break which people complain about to easily,, mostly are improved by the country's producer, as tecent decades we noticed China being the factory floor of the world.
And now with the commonly lnown practices of open technical standards or open ware in technology business, our US isn't able to stop many people just talking amongst the circles of people who know others in the related companies.
But can China compete with West without modicum of liberties to its brilliant minds and souls? For example recent news reports from South China Morning posts pointed out unfreedom as major obstacle in China especially in its inability to come with ideas and visions like Chatgpt. The Western technological edge is result of international teamwork of talents unless such environment opens up in China, i cannot foresee any changes in technological status quo. Of course, China can be efficient in building bridges and major dams but Pyramids and Pharaohs like Xi Jingping became obsolete in world politics centuries ago.
@@avbhinaya People have said the same thing about jet engines, the Three Gorges Dam, the space station and numerous other stuff that China has no way of ever achieving for the last 50 years.
9:48 is this an AI generated image of a automotive assembly line?
Lol, I didn't see that on the first time watch.
Looks a bit surreal. Maybe it is
Looks like it, Good catch
It is quite obvious ...
You should make a video on the latest restrictions that Biden has imposed on Chinese semiconductor imports of US tech/equipment. I would love to listen to your view on how it will effect the industry.
“China Tobacco had obscene amounts of money to burn”. . . saw what you did there. . . 😀
For the image of the Cultural Revolution, did you really use MidJourney to generate it?? It looks really good 👀
4:27 I heard what you did there…😂
This is so informative!!!!!! SUBBED!
Will you do an update to this video ?
cant China be manufacturing RISC-V chips instead? theyre an open standard and the widespread adoption of it on chinese mobile phones would accelerate their adoption?
they already build it. alot will be in the iot space
All the software compatibility issue have to be solved as well. So far I've seen several major chinese software companies are porting their products to support RISC-V but it will take some time to achieve full adoption.
@@leezhieng yup, as all new instruction standards do, its gonna take time to sort out the bugs. Hopefully we see a competitive chip market in the future, with better software abstraction so it doesn't affect the end consumer.
I wish we had the democratic power to do this to our corrupt executives. Our jails would be full.
The US prison industry itself is actually a profit center. Also, jailing executives is considered "bad for the economy". There was a time when lots of US executives indeed went to prison under the investigations of Ferdinand Pecora in the 1930s. The pendulum needs to swing back!
India is the biggest democracy of the world and has more corruption than China for example 😅.
"Democracy" is not warranty of anything.
@@Ateshtesh India is obviously is a smaller democracy than China then. Chinese people are invited to participate in the process in higher numbers than anywhere else in the world.
@@GoodBaleadaMusic completely agreed
Mechanism to evaluate governors make a better governance.
Countries self-called "democracies" over the world are actually "popularity contest driven governments" instead of real democracy.
But they believe they are the only way and the real democracy.
That happen when the ideology is over the pragmatism and the way to do the things are more important that the result.
despite setbacks and the technology gap lets be honest china seems unstoppable, eventually restrictions will become no sense.
10:00 oh now something seem to make sense for me, some time ago China seemed to have some problems with vw, maybe they startedto implement this process, maybe not, but could make sense
Also, I really like your work, keep it up!
What’s up with all these new Vietnamese ads on utube recruiting people to work somewhere, human trafficking?
this is a great channel but there are also a few misinformations, 1) the 7n equivalent of SMIC is N+1, N+2 is their 5nm equivalent which is likely not in production ... yet, 2) SMEE did already shipped the supposed 5nm capable 28nm DUV machine in 2021, they kept a low profile for many reasons.
The big expensive investments are magnets for corruption and personal gains. Every conceivable scheme is used. An example earlier in this blog discusses a company which got the funds and used it for real estate investments. This systematic corruption is at every level. Well keep investing. Netherlands, Japan, US are happy to take the $.
EXACTLY AS I HAVE STATED. THE EUROPEANS ALSO NEED OTHERS TO BUILD A SEMICONDUCTOR FAB. THE EUROPEANS ARE TRYING TO GIVE IMPRESSION AS IF THEY HAVE TO COMPLETE FABRICATION PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES.
Looks like stumbling along with failures along the way, but still toward the inevitable destination. Those who try will eventually succeed. Their production has increased rapidly, but so has demand.
ccp troll
@@lifeisneverthesame910 Something wrong with stating the obvious?
The rise in production is almost entirely in mature nodes. Leading edge node is pretty much a dead end for china
This isn't clear from the presentation. The end charts tell a slightly different story than the one you are painting. In other words, domestic consumption is currently outpacing domestic production, especially in high-in-demand product categories.
@@lifeisneverthesame910 Name calling only makes your side looks stupid
I think the contribution of this channel calls for scrutiny as it over states issues on China and other countries but is not aware or its deliberate misinformation on US corruption incidents such as the Congress Speaker and or present President who employ their children in facilitating business using state transport and facilities. All big projects will always have overflows and such cases are the rationale to have a supervisory system. One think both nations are doing in over production will downgrade this industry.
You might want to take a look at the crypto bullshit going on in your comments.
The problem is that there has to be people that spend the money, otherwise the enconomy is going to stop. It's just never to be a self incentive enconomy environment. So the fund even with huge flaw and very likely incure benefits exchange and corruption, yet indeed it pushes the china integrated circuit industrials.
Recently there are quite a few of them doing well despite others' failure. For example Beijing Moore Threads who released their own GPU and AI chips recently.
@@leezhieng I fully agreed and actually it is indeed that the fund could grant great purchase power for China to purchase GPU Imagination and secure the GPU cores to be readily available for company like Moore Thread (which is sales teams leader from NVIDIA Found this company) or BIRENTECH
, JINGJIA Micro or INNOSILICON
Let's the facts speak for themselves. China now can mass produce 28nm and 14nm chips, which are the bulk of the chip usages in Chin and in the world. It can produce limited quantity of 7nm chips, uncovered in some bitcoin mining machines (I guess it was used to test on its capability). In addition, China can produce 28nm Lith Machines, used for 28nm chip and 14nm chip making. It is known that with multiple exposure process, it can produce 7nm chips, with less than desirable success rate.
Note that because China has been mass producing 28nm and 14nm chips, the chip inventory in South Korea Samsung and Taiwan TSMC are no longer in short supply.
For 7nm chips that are used by expensive flagship phones, it still posts a challenge to China's chip industry. But I am confident that within two years, it will be a concern of the past. Samsung and TSMC will still dominate the 7nm chip sector for a while, and they are will be way ahead in 5nm and 3nm chip making. But let's be realistic, 5nm and 3nm chips are more for marketing, their gain in function is much less than stellar. There are news that TSMC are moving into 2nm chip sector. But no one is interested. The cost and the return are not reasonable for 2nm chips for a long time. That means China can slowly catch up, eventually dominate the 7nm and 5nm chip market.
The real challenge for China is the paten-heavy communication chips made by Qualcomm and other US chip companies. EDA software banning is also a challenge, but China can move slowly with its own EDA software. But these problems can be resolved with exception. These US companies have huge political lobby groups.
All in all, I really don't think chip making is a serious challenge for China now. It was 5 years ago when Trump started the trade war. But 5 years later, the ones really get hurt are Samsung, TSMC and many US companies. China always wins. That is because it does not depend on others to sell them stuff ... they make their own stuff, be it tool or final product.
I do believe china will become self sufficient in this semiconductor field. But i dont think china will achieve it's goal of 70% of self reliancy by 2025. Even in 2020 chip imports make upto 80% of china's domestic market.
Maybe around 2030 or so china will reach it's goal
@@prasanth2601 Sounds good. Eventually China will be self sufficient.
@@jkuangWatch out for China's Big Fund Phase Two.
That's where the real Chinese chip efforts are going.
Nope, China is heavily dependent on imported tech for their current advances. You have to remember that until the sanctions were tightened, they were already able to acquire plenty of asml machines. So what we are probably seeing right now is that the Chinese companies are starting to use those machines.
China knows that its greatest economic gains come from mature nodes which is less glamorous, but within the real realm of producing profits and results. The cutting edge like TSMC has stumbled a bit as companies like Apple pulled back their efforts to use 3nm chips from TSMC to use 5nm node chips. TSMC looks like it took two steps back and one step forward by focusing some attention on mature nodes recently. It's US efforts sound like they could fail. Having said that, most small companies entering a new sector of growth, fail for a lots of reason, mostly for lack of funds to meet their ambitions. Even mundane sectors have failures. Most people are not interested in these failures but are occupied with trying to find the successes. That is true for the semiconductor sector.
I personally think that China's learning curve is coming up fast now and faster in the future as it gains more experience and the technology shifts to newer factors that come into play where China is at the same starting line as the west. In silicon, it is playing catch up. Newer substrates, newer light wave technologies could change the whole dimension of semiconductors but that remains to be seen.
Your videos are an excellent example of definitive facts and information for those of us interested in technology, especially in the China vs US competition.
I heard Morris Chang has finally come around to understanding the future is mainland China. I think they are going to build a new fab there or something. It's basically an admission the Arizona project is a failure. The firm got burnt via the subsidy game getting political.
Nomination Policy SINO ICT:
Selection Criteria
2.1 The factors listed below would be used as reference by the Nomination
• Diversity in all its aspects, including but not limited to gender, age, cultural and educational background, ethnicity, professional experience, skills, knowledge and length of service...
the result ? 99% ethnics Han ...
Semiconductor industry is not something that can be successful just by pouring money into it.
“Make the supply chain controllable” translates to me as “Become a monopoly”
It's somewhat different. It's more like "become immune to any foreign monopoly's intervention". Becoming a monopoly itself is one of the many ways to achieve this goal.
@@deepseer A deep thought reply without being pro- or anti- CCP. I respect you.
SKhynix....... Hmmmmm very close to Skynet.
China is inexperienced in semiconductor development. The US sanctions and the corruption fund failure really gives China guidance in what works and what doesn't.
Beijing Moore Threads, a new startup company in the midst of US sanction released their own high end GPU and AI chips just 2 months ago. I don't know what you're talking about.
@@leezhieng the point is they're just a fabless design company using Architecture developed by Foreign Companies. If at all they really plan to be independent, they should start from scratch
Don't think Mainland China will catch up in the short term. EUV lithography, development started in 1985, EUV LLC was formed in 1997, it's 2011 before ASML NXE:3100 is ready, so 26 years from EUV research to 1st EUV Lithography machine. In the medium/long term, it's anybody's guess, as countries recognized the strategic importance of semiconductors and new players are trying to enter the game, like India (whose media proclaim it's a superpower in 2020 and Modi received the UNESCO Best PM Award). China has the second-mover advantage, but so does other players/countries looking to enter the space.
Pioneers always take more time than imitators. Atleast seeing from other industries.
China is catching up very fast..
Time is not linear..it is harder to invent the wheel than reinvent it.
However..you forgot that these foreign players are actually earning money from chips , lithography etc..
This is what the West is not revealing.
For every Huawei phone..for example..Taiwan earns from Chips sales..US earns from apps.
Not all profits go to China.
So..if China simply advance everything to self-sufficiency..then other countries won't collaborate with China and only be direct competition.
For all we know.. China already has the technologies..but just not mass producing it.. more like keeping it all in pace.
dude the india thing is just a meme. people need to stop taking it seriousl;y. china is serious competitor because its the second largest economy and arch enemy of america. big difference
@@rodrozil6544 Thats why I said China have second-mover advantage. Because its second, it already knows what technologies work, it can concentrate in those area, instead of trailblazer that need to fund 10 different avenues before a path opens up.
Catch up doesn't necessarily mean catching up in EUV lithography. China didn't catch up to Germany and Japan in car making by beating them in internal combustion engine technology. It leapfrogged by betting on EVs instead. There will be a next big thing after EUV, and China will have a much better chance to take the lead in the next generation of semiconductor technologies.
Good stuff
I was talking about the pros and cons of open source software like Linux the other day. I was saying that it allows China to just walk into industries that would otherwise be controlled by western companies. My friend thought that the benefits still far outway the downsides. All the same, I worry that China will abuse open standards like RISC-V to try to dominate in the design of microcontrollers
@@keyboardt8276 I think it’s bad for everyone when an authoritarian, repressive government consolidates further power
@@keyboardt8276 it's only a downside if you're a (western) monopolist.. as it threatens your monopoly.
Problem for libertarian westerners (which also have trouble with China) is the monopolist agenda that China represents. Single party rule is political monopolism. Centrally planned economic activity is monopolism.
How do you abuse a standard that's open? Nobody can block you from using it, and nobody can force you to use it. If you insist on platforms that are not open, you block out a lot more than China, you also choke your own startups. As we can see from Google and Android, even a company built on the so called "Do no evil", eventually succumb to the commercial lure of monopolistic behavior.
More competition is supposed to be good for Western businesses.
@@joansparky4439 I'm not opposed to opensource. I run Linux on all my computers. I'm not even that opposed to tech transfers when it is a democratic country doing it but when you're talking about a country with a value system that is the antithesis to everything good in the world you better believe I'm a western monopolist.
I'd love to hear more about tobacco in China and perhaps also how the vape situation is over there.
China completely bans electronic cigarettes.
Tabacco is state run only, all the asset/profit belongs to the people, very cozy job for people works there.
@@kidbig6976 wrong，you can buy e-cigarettes in almost every mall in China.
very good
us lock-out efforts overt or covert....reminds me of the days of DVD-stds --> no one uses DVDs today.
Open-stds = motivated inventors ...these are the guys to foster.
The founder of China's space program was badly mistreated by the us-officials
when he returned home he was highly motivated
usa is motivating others in the world to do better
hope they do so.
1:57 I'm sure the Cultural Revolution didn't help.
Thanks
he looks like Ross from friends
What about Fabless Semiconductor Design Companies any progress?
China has several highly capable companies, perhaps Huawei is most notable.
But, when the company is design only products and production are limited by any deals with a fab.
if what you say is right,why is best of amd proc are made in china ? it is printed on cpu ...
Not totally made in China. They recycle parts. new and old parts but they don't invent and manufacture them. hey cannibalized parts, reassemble, and relabel, as Made in China.
China is like any other Asian nation - Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore. What makes China formidable is the size of their population and the fact that they have developed core technology competency.
Lmfao 😂...
Lol what dog crap u from u even been to China lol
@@ashishpatel350 It's true. The culture of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have copied many aspects from Chinese culture.
China is nothing like any of those other nations that are liberal democracies.
@@ashishpatel350 now don't say supa powar india by 2020 and go somewhere else to s..cam people
i 7:39 what you said was wrong they dont improve the jsut copu iy to the best of their abilities
Wow, Chinese semiconductor initiative since 1950s. Surely China by now has superior semiconductor capacity just waiting to be brought to the public market. China can afford to keep quiet about their actual state of technological development which probably is the main reason for why western experts are taken by surprise by Chinese technological progress again and again.
China will always get 🐓blocked by the US, because they don't want to play by their rules, which is good. It will make for a more interesting geo political show, how the Chinese will come up with new ways to develop their industries and show the US that they have big 🐓's too 🤣🤣🤣.
All show!
Be more interesting if we can actually see competing supply chain being developed instead of people always taking the same paths.
Not if he already gone to space also
HIKVision got where it is by stealing ARM’s camera ISP.
The Big Fund.. haha ha ha
What a hideous IA generated car plant! 😂
Hopefully trolls won't see this topic. See what happened to a country that was opinionated by them!
You mean like Russia running Republican talk points through 4 Chan?
@@zeitgeistx5239 Sorry that was just me shitposting, please lurk more.
The image at 9:53 looks AI generated.
13:47 😂
I hope china could succeed so that the world have a competition instead of US near monopoly practice
Lol, no single country have monopoly to chips. Multiple countries are involved, specialized in certain part in semiconductor manufacturing
US monopoly has been "less harmful" than the other eras of multipolarity,and we know what China has been like whenever they were at the top,basically acting like a giant protection racket with their tribute system
not bad , for a Taiwanese expert ...
Many China people always like talk big. Even other people were already awkward, they just don't care and don't stop.
No matter how they boast their semiconductor tech, no matter how much money spent, they still need equipment from U.S & Japan.
Once U.S government forbidden machine and parts export to China, produce by AMAT/KLA/LAM, then any semiconductor company have no choice but stop operation.
I even do not mention about the most important company ASML, actually many critical lithography parts are also from U.S.
Even tsmc's chairman Mark claim that tsmc must operate by support from U.S & Japan.
So how could China can develop semiconductor tech by themselves.
They just need a patriotic project name to steal money from government.
Many foolish Chinese really believe that their great mother country's boast, so poor and shame.
Isn't the corruption State ran as well? I mean if that is the case, maybe Xiao just thought he was not going to get fingered as the problem.
I see a lot of bots 🤖🤣
We Tu Low
Any time there are piles of cash in China, there will be people trying to get a cut, a bribe, a payoff. The fund had so much cash, I wonder if everybody figured it was a limitless pile of money and went in for a dip, until there wasn't enough money left to perform the fund's mission. But even all the money wasn't enough. China want to succeed in this industry, and may eventually do so. But there are multiple nations and hundreds of companies who have every incentive to block, obfuscate, and derail this effort. They all saw what happened to solar cells. They're not stupid.
Could we expect us chips act to follow suit!!!
A.G.I Will be man's last invention
💥💥💥💥💥🤟I really enjoy these
Thank you for this requested video. I would have appreciated more if you were more specific on how IPs was stolen, and how key technology personnels were recruited and why China still failed in achieving their semiconductor technology objectives even with the recruited foreign workers.
By providing semiconductor news in Chinese to English speaking target audience Asianometry provides valuable service. Semiconductor engineers from foreign countries can defend themselves from unscrupulous recruiting tactics by Chinese semiconductor firms. Foreign technology firms can protect their IPs. This will benefit semiconductor industry and the humanity.
When Asianometry stick with technological topics of Chinese language news without bashing other Asian countries and resist temptation to discuss non-Chinese Asian topic then the creator does provide valuable service. Thank you.
China is good at two things, scale and cheap labor. All the industries they have succeeded in require either both or one of these 2.
But semi-conductor chip require another thing, yield. It doesn't matter how many wafers you can churn out if only 1% of them work.
And to increase yield, takes engineering, a real understanding of how the line work, tons of talent and hard-skill to make individual equipment to work together.
It just isn't the case of buying the equipment, hiring 1 or 2 of the people from the company and throwing a ton of cheap labor to get it working.
Even the minute different in local electrical supply can result in change of the yield. That's what at play when your stuff goes to the nanometer...
Actually they are not much good for cheap labour any more. That's why multinationals are moving to Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.
No matter what, I have complete confidence in China and the Chinese Communist Party. China will be self sufficient in semiconductor industry. I also have confidence in reunification with Taiwan.
Aerospace and IC could not be more different. China can make space shuttles, but chips, just like Russia.
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China has been stupid with their chip tech. They mastered 14nm yet didn't do anything with it. They could have been the top manufacturer of specialized older tech. It is still used in a lot of products. What would happen if China became number one in hardened 14nm chips. No more worry of solar flares or electrical discharge. They could have been come specialists for space travel chips. You don't need the cutting edge for navigation or fundamental base controls. Or on Mars. You do need hardened chips though. they could have specialized in other ways as well. Too busy screwing each other.
Probably low yield. Meaning they cannot mass produce.
They could have run wild in the car chip industry. But then their workers would have to get good COVID vaccines so they don't overwhelm their frail hospital system. Pride keeps them out. Maybe they could have gotten by with just COVAX if they weren't so proud. Would even Sputnik V work?
A lot of the 16 odd % is indeed a bunch of old stuff..
chinese 14nm chips just entered mass production this year, it will take a while to build out that capacity.
A typical response by a fundamentally ideological person making allegations & aspersions against those who actually think, work & produce real, physical &, more importantly, useful products. In todays' age, indispensable....
This guy is overrated in his analysis. He is just a guy on the outside looking in and analyses using circumstantial evidence.
A lot of the things you read out as if they are fact, are just plain wrong. The information on the 50's to the 90's in this one, for example, is rather laughable. But I guess a lot of people will listen to you as if you know what you are talking about. Doing internet armchair google research and pasting it all together for the usual 15-20min youtube video, is not how you make a valid documentary. You actually have to know and to talk to experts and engineers in the field who can fact check your claims.