There is a saying in my language: "After the battle, everybody is a general". But in this comment section you can substitute it with "before battle". :D
It would be funny if China just shower Taiwan with long range missiles for 3 days straight and Taiwan just surrender before the US can send their first gun
@@youarebeingtrolled6954they also don't realize that Japan literally used Taiwan as a staging ground where they then attacked China during ww2. This is why many Chinese in the mainland disliked Taiwan.
It’s crazy that in his age he’s that dialed into modern strategy… that guy has been around 3 times as long as me, but only has so much knowledge it’s incredible.
The problems of a full scale invasion of Taiwan is well known, but a maritime blockade of Taiwanese ports is somewhat more complicated. It will most likely not have a full military response by the US, but equally the US would not be able to supply Taiwan either. How long could Taiwan survive such a siege?
The US would just send in a convoy of supply ships. China would have to choose between firing on US Navy vessels, causing a war they have no hope of winning, or letting the US Navy supply Taiwan.
@@CedarHunt China can easily crush the entire USA in conventional warfare. In no way USA either denies this fact. Nobody dares fight against China man to man on ground in any scenario. And on naval front, China can easily block the entire sea by laying mines all over. China can even blow American ships with missiles directly and deny straight forward of its involvement.
I really agree. Distributed network warfare demands many more distributable, expendable and networkable delivery systems that can easily pick up and move to different locations.
They need to do everything because no matter how much they distribute, they are all on the island. Which is why in order to survive the initial surprise attack, they need to keep forces outside of Taiwan, North, South and East of Taiwan. China will probably also use swarms of helicopters and planes to get lots of people there quickly.
@@dtsai you're not wrong. I think a break-in defense is a great idea in this situation... It is often a great tactical strategy, but in this case especially, good call.
I think they’re wrong about trying to have A2AD in the ocean though. The PLA Navy far outguns the Taiwanese, trying to fight at sea would be disastrous for Taiwan. Instead they’re better off using the defence advantage at the shoreline and using their ships to secure routes of resupply and reinforcement. D-Day showed us just how costly opposed amphibious landings can be. A relatively small defending force can hold up and damage a much larger one with massive consequences. Furthermore, D-Day came when theLuftwaffe was nearly nonexistent as a fighting force. Provided that Taiwan could preserve its air forces in the opening hours of the attack, they could rain air power down on the landing zones with devastating effect and quick turn around while the PLAA and PLAN would be relying on carrier and mainland based sorties for air cover.
I actually disagree. An invasion is not even close to being possible and both sides know this. Russia couldn't cross rivers. 100 miles of ocean is a death sentence. There is no way to land ships against modern anti ship missiles. If China was serious about invasion they would be building a much more massive like 20x larger helicopter fleet to transport troops. But they are building a generally useful military not one optimized for invasion. Far more likely is a blockaid and ballistic missile attacks until Taiwan gives up. And countering this requires symmetrical assets not asymmetric ones. This is why Taiwan has moved towards consentrating on their own ability to threaten the Chinese mainland. It is a more effective deterrent. Amphibious landings against modern weapons are a joke proposition.
Let's be honest, a major portion of Taiwan's strategy for dealing with China in the event of an invasion involves drawing the United States into the conflict.
@@ramjam6934 I think Japan is already preparing for it. They have been building their military up recently. Korea would depend on what North Korea says and does. I have no idea what india would do tbh. I also don't know if any of them have a treaty with Taiwan similar to ours.
Showing ones strength to an adversary and having it well known is the key to any deterrence. Many wars including much of WW2 would never have happened if the attacking side really knew what they were up against.
in ww2 the allies showed weakness through appeasement. usa was out of the picture. russia had a pact with germany. the west today shouldnt make the same mistake again.
Not quite. Hitler really was stupid enough to have started a war anyways. His generals told him it was suicide, even while the offensive in the east was still going well.
Switzerland is mountainous and armed to the teeth. It has underground (under rock) shelters enough to house it's entire population. Fortress Switzerland has not been successfully invaded in what... 600 years? Minefields can make life precarious for ships. And there is a proposal to nuke the three gorges dam floating around. Best idea is to not invade.
Not really this perspective doesn’t really make sense until the Germans attacked the Soviets and the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor the war was happening for 2 years before both of these events
@@vlhc4642Worry about both. But in the end, ship to shore will be what determines everything. Bombing campaigns rarely ever force an enemy into submission. It's the invading force that does that job.
The most worry thing happen, if china attack taiwan it will effect ecomony the whole word, it devistate more than rusia-ukraine war.. the increase price + inflation + supply food + oil + tech suply + electronic etc its scary
@@SuperCatacata You know the word "siege" came from the Latin word "sit", as in to "siege" a fort is to sit back and wait til they surrender under your blockade. Taiwan is an island with just 2 month of fuel, you don't actually need any bombing campaign to force them into submission. The bombing campaign just helps convince them to submit faster.
The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that unmanned aerial weapons, MANPADS and drones will play a far more significant part in any future conflicts. Taiwan should be building up these resources
I like how Taiwanese admiral left sea drones part out. Which can become the most painful point during the warfare. This can disrupt supply and blockade military forces at no cost. Ukrainian war showed the effectiveness of that weapon.
@@DY-fy2jh Although China has more aerial drone capabilities and presumably that might transfer to marine drones too, it's also true that their USVs aren't going to have as much targets as Taiwan's will. Taiwan could use USVs against incoming Chinese ships.
I don't think that was a mistake. Many of the most sensitive details critical to any military operation tend not to be brought up, at least for now. Unfortunately, China is also aware of drone capabilities. Last I heard, they were testing a supposedly civilian small cargo ship that just happens to be capable of doubling as a remote drone carrier. Not sure what's the status on that, but yeah, the future arms race looks very drone-intensive for all sides.
Being an island was a blessing in 1949 but not in 2023 since the island’s survival depends on US transports to sustain the resistance. In all war game scenarios US & allies were not able to keep Taiwanese sea lanes open without directly attacking assets on the mainland and risk starting WW3. Unlike Ukraine, supplying Taiwan would be nearly impossible once the war breaks out.
I don't see why firing on the Chinese mainland would be an issue. If China attempts to stop a US Navy convoy headed to Taiwan, then they've already started WW3, and China has already lost.
As a Chinese, America won be able to do anything really. If it does, then china has 1000's of Hypersonics to level most of the major US cities into rubble. Infact dropping one mega nuke on the yellowstone volacano alone will make US uninhabitable for centuries. American's need to remember they are fighting China not some insurgents in the middle east with their pet goats.
Taiwan can threat U.S. into submission by accepting a peaceful unification term with China and hand over their entire chip manufacturing capacity to Chinese if U.S. dare not come to help.
There a good reason why the US and her allies in the region are making a new island defensive chain system. The goal of it to basically dismantle the China navy during it invasion. Making China force to choose between striking at a American carrier strike force or the defensive front that can do not only cripple but has the potential to stop the invasion with short range strikes onto it fleet.
You mean like the QUAD? Where Japan was vocal about not interfering (Orianna Skylar) for fear of retribution? Or India, who's best buds with Russia? That's why Aukus was formed btw, no one in Asia is going to fight US wars lol
@@paulcruz168lmao??? The Chinese and Russian are kinda buddies. Many believe in India and abroad like you that USSR or Russia has always been a friend to India... But do you know a very lesser known fact? Just before the 1962 Indo China war.. The Chinese Premiere spoke to the Russian Premier and informed him that a possible invasion of India was brewing. The Russian Premier Delayed the delivery of Mig 21s to India which cost us the war. It was one of Russia's deliberate attempts to Please Beijing and choose Beijing over NCR(National Capital Region of India). If an imminent war breaks out now..... Then India will have to face China alone without Russian help. This is exactly the reason why India is steadily shifting towards the West and also Arab and African nations and even SEA and Australia, Japan, Korea.
"Relying on allies to come to their aid", meanwhile those allies are building their own chip manufacturing plants so that they don't rely on Taiwan anymore....
USA doesn't want Taiwan to have Nukes. But perhaps in the interests of peace, Taiwan could get The Rods of God up in space that would only be used when necessary.
@@AvuncularMicah That does seem like a very good deterrence strategy similar to having nukes. However, they do not yet have the capability to certainly penetrate the air defences and deal enough damage so it fails massively. Dam is a hardened structure and has many ''layers'' so it isn't even know how much damage you actually need to do for it to fail.
Asymmetric warfare against tanks with hand held missiles is easy, but there hasn't been a hand held missile ever produced that can sink a warship. Only a Harpoon like missile is capable of putting a warship to the bottom of the sea, by basically splitting the ship in two. This can't be done with a hand held missile.
the problem is they spend it on weapon and not soldier. which is why alot of their pilot quit and went to the mainland. if war break up, taiwan has no reserve pilot to draw from.
Because in open and free elections, Puerto Ricans overwhelmingly reject independence. The only real debate there is whether to keep the status quo or whether to apply for statehood.
@@xDomglmao a term I believe was said by Johnny Harris on Japan heavily militarizing the Ryukyu Island Chain where they installed Long Range Missiles capable of reaching the Taiwan Strait or the mainland China. reference: ua-cam.com/video/plHRRFHZ_f0/v-deo.html
I am following Kings & Generals' Pacific campaign that was fought between Japan and the Allies. It's mind boggling how many amphibious assaults both sides conducted throughout the campaign. And in between those assaults, you have the successful ones, the not-so-successful ones, and the failed ones. Then there were so many battles fought just to resupply the armies already landed. From the Japanese side, you have the early 1942 campaigns where they conducted so many amphibious landings all around the Pacific - from Philippines, to Malaya, to Dutch East Indies, Guam, Wake, and so on. And then the US did the same from Guadacanal to the Pacific islands, all through Iwojima and Okinawa. And that's just the Pacific campaign - there were amphibious operations done in the European theater too by the Allies - the North African landing, the Sicilian landing, the South France landing, and of course the famed Normandy landing. Even Germany conducted some amphibious assault in their invasion of Norway and the airborne operations of Cretan assault. The amount of experience accumulated by not just the US but Japan and other belligerents in amphibious assaults were immense. Meanwhile, China has conducted 0 amphibious assault in modern time. Can they excel in their first try by just learning from military history? If the generals and its officers were first rate students and implementers of those studies, maybe?
In fact, what you call those experiences have long been lost in the dust of history, and modern Westerners only have the experience of the war on terror, and everyone is at the same starting line in the great power war
@@dianahill5116 Man woman black white gay straight doesn’t matter who’s in charge war is in our blood and it’s a part of human nature and no matter how hard we try we can never change human nature
@@millennium677 There is no such thing as human nature. Humans behave differently across cultures. Among the Amish for example, there are nearly no reported murders. It is scarcity that creates viciousness between organisms, and it doesn't stop with humans.
I don’t know if Mainland China wants to invade Taiwan, but I know the Americans won’t be spilling blood and steel to defend Taiwan. Just look at the homeless drug addicts in SF and you’ll know what a disaster we are in here.
Also semi autonomous underwater long range torpedoes. They could automatically surface to recharge their batteries once a month, using a thin film solar panels on their surface.
We are currently seeing in Ukraine how anti-ship missiles can be a cheap, powerful deterrent against navies. The Russian Black Sea fleet won't come within 150 km of the Ukrainian controlled coast.
Comparing total soldier numbers is misleading, as China could not commit all of these troops to battle, whereas Taiwan could, as it has no other enemies. One needs to consider it is the 3rd largest nation and has a land border of 22,117 km border with 14 countries. In particular, India might take advantage of any depleted troops to recover and gain territory. Of course, it would still be able to outnumbered Taiwan, but this needs to balanced a defending force that just needs to hold out for a few weeks while its allies mobilise.
India doesn't not have the logistics to travel far into Tibet At most they only 3 to 5 days of supply on average for high mountain ranges 😂 And India has not forgotten about how British treated India before independence and how the US treated India when it needs weapons during the cold war They are not gullible enough to be the next pawn of the west lol But who knows MSM knows how to educate Americans about interfering other countries' affairs Example: doing it for freedom and democracy 😂
money cant solve that, in spite of what your reddit education tells you. 700BN is put towards ending homelessness, biden just signed 100bn infrastructure, and we put more of our taxes to healthcare than any other country.@@angus7278
When PRC attack, ROC must show they can hold the island on its own during the early stage of the fight, if not USA may also bomb TSMC facilities to prevent PRC get hold of the facilities. Potentially getting bomb by both enemy and friend. What a tough position.
It’s not getting mentioned much but the Panama Canal is experiencing a lot of issues. The Pacific Ocean sits higher than the Atlantic so ships need to pass thru 3 lock gates. Due to droughts only 32 ships can pass thru a day with draft or weight limits in place to preserve fresh water. This could seriously limit the US ability to resupply or move assets
What do you mean by the Pacific Ocean sits higher than the Atlantic Ocean? I know the lock gates are there to level the boats with the fresh water lakes in Panana but I'm curious to know your answer to my question.
The naval assets we'd need to put china in its place are already in the Pacific. This isn't 1945 when most of US assets were centered on the East Coast. We have major bases in Philippines, Japan, Korea, already. They would all be attacked preemptively by china if they expect to survive more than a week. (Those attacks would also result in a defacto state of war between China and S Korea, China and Japan, and China and Philippines- forcing china to stretch its resources even further). Not to mention bases in the remote pacific islands like Guam midway Hawaii etc. Unlike any other major nation, the US doesn't really need to fear direct attack on its homeland. That means we can send large portions of our collective assets to one region, and not leave ourselves open to attack. So many nations rely on the US for their national security so if the US is actually attacked (as it would be if china invaded taiwan) many would immediately come to the aid of the Americans. Australia is in a similar position as S. Korea and Japan, concerned over China's aggression. I believe they would similarly step in as they've been building up their military as well in preparation of this conflict. The UK joins us in most of our wars anyway. Should Aus be directly engaged, then the UK would be as well. In a defensive war such as this, Canada and Germany would similarly join. Obviously all would if Article 5 is activated but IIRC it is not automatically activated if the attack on a NATO nation occurs outside the north Atlantic. However, most nato nations wouldn't care about that distinction in the event of a sizable attack such this. Finally, trumping all those factors is one simple factor: microchips. For some stupid reason, no one realized what a stupid idea it is to have all the world's microchips made in one spot. Even if that one spot were as safe as, idk... Kansas, it would still be an all eggs, one basket situation. Now let's put that basket right next to our biggest rival. Granted we didn't know they'd be our biggest rival until about 10 or 20 yrs ago, but still we knew they sought to recapture taiwan. Regardless, we've had at least a decade to start building those microchip plants here. Some would be coming online now had we done so. But we are really only starting to do so now. Bc we've allowed our internal squabbles dominate our focus. Even when we aren't squabbling domestically, large portions of us say we need to only focus on ourselves and stop policing the world. Which is true, of course, but we don't have that luxury yet. I fear we adapt too slowly sometimes. This is such an enormous ship - by far the biggest ever built - this ship of state turns very slowly. It accelerates slowly. It's slow to stop. And its captain is never the best person for captain; its captain is the person best at becoming captain.
Hit and run guerrilla warfare is what you do when you care about causalities, frontal attack into superior force is when you don't. KMT frontal attacks, CCP hit and run, Vietnam hit and run, Ukraine front attacks, Disregard for human life has, is, and will always be the signature of western culture.
Taiwan's best best second layer of defence is autonomous AI attack drones that don't solely rely on GPS. They would have inertia, GPS, magnetic and terrain map navigation and AI target object recognition and be immune to electronic warfare. They would be snipers and Kamikaze mix of drones, small, medium and large.
i don't think taiwanese has the determination to perform guerrilla warfare or something like that. the biggest obstacle to china is always the international reaction, not taiwan itself
cheapest solutions are Best Solutions. Cheap anti ship Drones & Manpads can do enormous damage to PLA, PLAN efforts to takeover without collateral damages. Make this war very hard & expensive for CCP with body bags going back into Mainland
Taiwan must legalize gun ownership and encourage its' citizens to learn how to shoot by sponsoring rifle clubs and marksmanship competitions. That would be the most cost effective way to make the PLA think twice before setting foot on Taiwanese soil.
it only increase casualties in taiwan. This is very easy to solve in war time. Taiwan is very small with only 24M people, just divided taiwan in small pieces and move taiwan people group by group to Xinjiang, then freeze food supply for half year. Soon taiwan will be clean.
This will never happen. The entire Taiwanese populace has already completely bought into the "Guns bad, Americans are stupid for having guns" narrative held by the rest of the world.
@@strassmanncai It would be best if the USA sells its nukes to Taiwan to use immediately on the 3 gorges dam. Wouldn't that be great? Mainland will be called West Taiwan! :)
If the PLA lands on Taiwan, asymmetrical warfare is the only hope Taiwan has. However, Taiwan needs enough anti-ship, surface to air, and surface to surface missiles to defeat any PLA force from landing on Taiwan. These missiles need to be stocked on Taiwan, dispersed across the island. PLA ships should have to run an impenetrable gauntlet to reach the island.
The war in Ukraine really showed how far war has gone in terms of technology. With the drones, hypersonic missiles, etc. Taiwan must take great care not to underestimate its opponent here.
Thats not close to accurate for every hyper sonic and every super drone there are a 100 toy drones with a grenade very low tech. They have dug miles of trenches and shoot old arty at one another daily ww1 style. Ukraine mobilized an additional 700k men, Russia 300 k men over a million men dig holes and throw shells day and night not advancing but a few meters. Old tanks have been brought back to serve , plowing forward head on, War reverted if anything.
@@TP-ie3hj China will wallop the US. The US Lost the war in Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, how are they going to beat China in their own backyard, Goodluck
@@TP-ie3hj This is definitely the most advanced we’ve seen in a war yet. Lower tech is being used due to low supply and high risk of losing newer more valuable assets. It’s not as spectacularly advanced as many would’ve liked to believe we are capable of at the moment, but to date it’s the greatest showing for military technological advancement in a large scale war, absolutely. Cyber warfare, extremely challenging logistics, integration of drones on a scale we’ve never seen before (even underwater drones capable of blowing up bridges), Patriot missiles and s300/400’s on opposite sides of 4th gen fighters going at, what other modern war has showcased a technological level this high? There are weapons being used for literally the first time ever, how is it possible it’s not the most advanced lol
I may simply be mistaken about what you first wrote. I would not disagree with what you have here. Two near peer combatants not seen for quite some time , not on this scale. Yes Kinzhals vs, patriots, the Himars and LACM strikes. Leopards versus T90, KA 52 versus cv90... very much a modern battlefield in that sense. So much so that the Bayraktars and many other wonder waffen have canceled each other out. Leaving the war down to the infantry and arty like the wars of old. The attention grabbers like the IED jet ski, and the kids toy with rpg duct taped to it is not what I would call high tech. Just necessary. Very low tech and took it that you were stating these variants are why you believed it to be high tech.
The East of Taiwan is not safe thus I suspect that is the Reason why the US setup an EDCA site at the Philippines Northern most tip that is VERY CLOSE to Taiwan's East coast..
Hey, technically, the civil war started in 1946 didn't end, there wasn't a ceasefire agreement, the civil war was simply paused by the Korean War and Korean War didn't end either.
China will never attack Taiwan unless one of the following 1 Taiwan declares referendum on independence 2 develope its own nuclear program 3 external forces to assist in the island independence. ... if none of that... stay clam and carry on
@@aliali-ce3yfThis is my first time seeing a Gordon Chang fanatic, how many years? decades has it been? Did China collapsed? I guess 1% is higher than 5%
In 1683, the Kangxi Emperor said specifically that “Taiwan is outside our empire and of no great consequence” and even offered to have the Dutch buy it back. Perhaps this is an inconvenient truth for the current rulers in Beijing. When Japan won the 1894-1895 Sino-Japanese war, the Qing government in Beijing agreed under Treaty of Shimonoseki that Taiwan would be ceded to Japan in perpetuity. The elites in Taiwan, including governor Tang Jingsong, sided with the local Taiwanese gentry and declared an independent Formosa Republic to forestall becoming part of Japan. 1949 Until the Present: Separate Existence From the abovementioned information it is clear that the claim “Taiwan has always been part of China” is dubious at best. It was always at the periphery - and most of the time outside the periphery - of the Chinese empire. When Communist rule was established on the mainland in 1949 the previous Nationalist Government fled to Taiwan and it has remained out of reach to Beijing since.
@@beeperbeeperson lol, wow,. First Taiwan isn't where all transistors come from, Taiwan makes most 5nm and below processing chips used in phones and GPUs, and drones processors use 28nm chips, maybe 14nm at most, and the vast majority of chips are power transistors, power regulators and radio modules that uses even bigger nodes. In other words nobody need Taiwan to build drones. Second China is one of the worlds largest maker of 28nm chips, has been mass producing 14nm for a few years now and just started mass producing 7nm. DJI has been under US sanctions for 2 years now, did they care? Three, drones needs a lot more than just chips, you need cameras, radios, batteries, motors, motor drivers, and composites. Taiwan has none, its' all China. The only way Taiwan can build any drone is to buy from Aliababa, infact they had a scandal last year where they had to send their military drone to mainland China for repairs.
@@vlhc4642 China doesn't have 10 thousand drones with the range to cross the Taiwan strait. The cheap commercial quad copter and small fixed wing drones being used in Ukraine can't travel anywhere close to that far. And you don't need SAMs to counter drones. Ukraine is very effectively countering slow moving drones with small arms fire and mounted machine gun fire (anti aircraft guns). The German supplied Gepard anti aircraft gun is very effective.
Lee is basically describing the porcupine strategy and it's pretty much the consensus of military experts now. There is however still a political dimension: shiny F-16s falling out of the sky are more potent and recognizable symbols of American friendship than generic rocket launchers.
@@tomk3732 That is the current strategy. While decades ago Taiwan wanted to declare independence and the only reason they did not was the US threatening them to stop aid. Now they don't even think about independence and have record trade with China. Status quo is not the worst outcome for both parties and can last indefinitely
@@arturturkevych3816 Now US however, wants to make Taiwan go independent - tables have turned. Status quo is of course best for China and Taiwan but not so much for US.
@@tomk3732 The US does not want Taiwan to go independent. There haven't been any signals from Washington for them to move towards independence. How would war benefit the US? China is it's biggest trading partner and that war is likely to drag the US in with huge risks and consequences. What Americans want as well is maintaining the status quo.
I’m afraid that this isn’t going to be a easy feet for China. China has a military budget of 293 billion dollars with 2,510,000 military personnels while a 2023 US-led coalition currently have a military budget of 1,481 billion dollars ($1.48 trillion) with 20,594,361 military personnels. United States have 8 times more total troops with 5 times the military budget. Would be extremely hard for China to catch up to those types of numbers. Invasion wars are never a easy thing to accomplish, it’s rather hard to impossible I say. If somehow in a miracle China accomplishes this then China would go from being broke back to being officially whole again. But the likelihood of China being successful on taking Taiwan is between impossible and possible seeing that the Chinese would get outnumbered and defeated. But hey, I don’t claim myself to be a military expert I just based it on what I’m seeing in Ukraine and the potential firepowers involved in this Taiwan conflict.
There will not be anywhere near that amount of men on Tiawan. The island is too small and China will need to leave men on the mainland to secure its borders.
As a Taiwan citizen, we discuss more about whether the US will come to assist us, rather than how we can keep the invasion from happening or make it impossible. I think this video provides a great insight on how we can defend ourselves against china. This is more important than thinking about the US’s aid, since we can not change US’s decision effectively, but we can change the strategy and mindset to make Taiwan undefeated.
interesting how his strategy speaks to the individual warrior on the battlefield in the 21st century. Many small units with some real punch doing major work.
Honestly Taiwan’s main goal needs to be keeping its anti-ship missiles alive during the opening CCP missile salvos launched pre invasion If they’re still left with the majority of their stock, any invasion is next to impossible. Even if China manages to land troops on the mainland, crucial logistics ships within 100km of of the coast would be like shooting fish in a barrel. Guns win battles, logistics win wars
Nah, China would do island hopping - i.e. it would get closer and closer to Taiwan. Eventually Taiwan would loose its missiles or run out. They could not make any more as their factories would be on fire. Also China has nice asymmetric methods to transport a lot of troops.
There won't be any "opening missiles salvos", you're talking about a country that builds 20 thousand drones a day in peacetime just for commercial use, if they start shooting it's just one giant salvo that last however long it takes until there's nothing to shoot at anymore.
@@tomk3732 Then the US LRASM assets come into play and obliterate those "assymetric methods". Multiple wargames have played out showing that in the first 2 months both US and CCP would run out of missiles but it would come at the cost of 80% of the Chinese navy and Taiwan holds off against a CCP landing, even in the worst case scenario.
@@kali7148 You don't need a simulation to figure out who would win in the long run - China. Why? They have well over 2x production capacity of US. Just like in WWI and WWII the stronger wins. Its that simple. And to make it worse for US - China is only getting stronger vs. US.
Becouse that would probably be the worst case nightmare scenario for the PLA. First they take heavy losses landing and taking a part of Taiwan, and now not only do they have to deal with local insurgencies, but there is still a part of the island where the enemy has their forces and can constantly launch small attacks on your positions. They either don't land at all or take the whole thing, anything in between would be a huge pain.
I’m convinced that the US should give Taiwan a combination of 250 Pershing missiles and stealthy Cruise missiles. Then give them a minimum of 2000 anti-ship missiles.
It’s beyond me that with Chinas military, air and navy strength combined with there coastline proximity to Taiwan people are gullible enough to believe the US would be able to supply and or alleviate the situation there. Not a single ship would even make it past our base in Okinawa
I mean I think as a member of the public we truthfully have little idea of either country’s full capabilities. That being said, I think you drastically underestimate the US’s investment into this region both financially and strategically. A ship doesn’t need to go past our base in Okinawa cause we already have a bunch of them out there and we’ve been expanding on the surrounding areas, like the Philippines. That being said, I think the American Public vastly underestimate the capabilities of the Chinese military. And they’re most likely more formidable than we give them credit for.
@@TheRolocker sorry I’ve used Americas last 4 conflicts as my examples and if they can’t beat guerrilla forces then they surely can’t win a conventional war directly with China. Simply not possible
@@WonderfulLidoff oops why don t Ukraine fire some missiles into Moscow..same principle why won t North Korea fire some missiles into New York ...because the consequense is Kiev will be a Hiroshima..same as Pyongyang and Taipeh..so do use your logic..do you really want to actually harm the major civilian population centre of the 3 superpowers...This will constitute an existential threat to its civilian population..which is likely to lead to either a total conventional or nuclear destruction of the Kiev,Pyongyang,Taipeh...
For now, China will not send its military to invade Taiwan. China will take at least ten years to build up more ships, submarines, more planes etc. They are also wary of the US sponsored military alliances and bases around them. At this point of time, they can only irritate by sending its ships and planes into Taiwanese waters and airspace. All that siren warnings is good enough to send fear, disrupt daily economic activities. Nations and governments must seek peace.
All 差不多 in quality..... The PLN isn't what one would call a modern navy. When I was in the USN; we were constantly having to chase China out of the territorial waters of other countries, where they didn't belong.
@@manofsan Taiwan's age demographic isn't that different from China's, though so it's a rather strange argument. Unless the taiwanese start youthening their population there's only a very small advantage at best for Taiwan not enough to make a difference if China can improve fleet capability and internal stability before the attack.
Everyone in these comments is a retired 5 star general. How lucky of Taiwan to have all these experienced combat planners.
lol!
dont worry these people are think the same with ukraine, they think ukraine can easly win just because they have all nato and american weapons LOL
Hahaha, it's entertaining tho reading top notch admiral level opinion in the comment section.. 🤣
They wish they were 😂
There is a saying in my language: "After the battle, everybody is a general". But in this comment section you can substitute it with "before battle". :D
Omg how I missed reading comments from the world's finest military advisors.
It would be funny if China just shower Taiwan with long range missiles for 3 days straight and Taiwan just surrender before the US can send their first gun
@@khoamama88 ye, the issue with taiwan has always been kmt working with ccp.
They also have Medical degree in Virology😂
@@GBR9794you know kmt fought a civil war right? Unlike dpp who sided with japan in ww2😂
@@youarebeingtrolled6954they also don't realize that Japan literally used Taiwan as a staging ground where they then attacked China during ww2. This is why many Chinese in the mainland disliked Taiwan.
It’s crazy that in his age he’s that dialed into modern strategy… that guy has been around 3 times as long as me, but only has so much knowledge it’s incredible.
If there is one thing I learn about war , it's that war is extremely unpredictable
But more predictable: Henry Kissinger Quote: “To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”
If I was Xi Jinping I would be conducting military drills off the coast of the USA, and set up nuclear missiles bases in Cuba!
"No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy." -- Carl von Clausewitz
@@pedrob3953 Wrong though
@@chriswong9158 Because Putin's friend is safe?😂
The island of Taiwan's secret weapon strategy is actually the rumbling of over 600,000 Colossal Titans.
The problems of a full scale invasion of Taiwan is well known, but a maritime blockade of Taiwanese ports is somewhat more complicated. It will most likely not have a full military response by the US, but equally the US would not be able to supply Taiwan either. How long could Taiwan survive such a siege?
The US would just send in a convoy of supply ships. China would have to choose between firing on US Navy vessels, causing a war they have no hope of winning, or letting the US Navy supply Taiwan.
The US would do a maritime blockade of China. China would be out of oil in 60 days.
A siege with a constant barrage of shelling, propaganda speeches, and millions of PLA troops.
@@CedarHunt
China can easily crush the entire USA in conventional warfare.
In no way USA either denies this fact.
Nobody dares fight against China man to man on ground in any scenario.
And on naval front, China can easily block the entire sea by laying mines all over.
China can even blow American ships with missiles directly and deny straight forward of its involvement.
@@CedarHunt if China decides to start the war the most sensible thing would be to block US Supply routes, this could be mines in the sea
I hope the peace can continue 🙏
China, just leave the island alone... we're all happy with peace
Geopolitics gonna geopolitic
informative! great production 👏👏
Learn more about the Taiwanese perspective on this matter:
ua-cam.com/video/XbobiiglwD4/v-deo.html
I really agree. Distributed network warfare demands many more distributable, expendable and networkable delivery systems that can easily pick up and move to different locations.
They need to do everything because no matter how much they distribute, they are all on the island. Which is why in order to survive the initial surprise attack, they need to keep forces outside of Taiwan, North, South and East of Taiwan. China will probably also use swarms of helicopters and planes to get lots of people there quickly.
@@dtsai you're not wrong. I think a break-in defense is a great idea in this situation... It is often a great tactical strategy, but in this case especially, good call.
I think they’re wrong about trying to have A2AD in the ocean though. The PLA Navy far outguns the Taiwanese, trying to fight at sea would be disastrous for Taiwan. Instead they’re better off using the defence advantage at the shoreline and using their ships to secure routes of resupply and reinforcement.
D-Day showed us just how costly opposed amphibious landings can be. A relatively small defending force can hold up and damage a much larger one with massive consequences.
Furthermore, D-Day came when theLuftwaffe was nearly nonexistent as a fighting force. Provided that Taiwan could preserve its air forces in the opening hours of the attack, they could rain air power down on the landing zones with devastating effect and quick turn around while the PLAA and PLAN would be relying on carrier and mainland based sorties for air cover.
I actually disagree. An invasion is not even close to being possible and both sides know this. Russia couldn't cross rivers. 100 miles of ocean is a death sentence. There is no way to land ships against modern anti ship missiles. If China was serious about invasion they would be building a much more massive like 20x larger helicopter fleet to transport troops. But they are building a generally useful military not one optimized for invasion. Far more likely is a blockaid and ballistic missile attacks until Taiwan gives up. And countering this requires symmetrical assets not asymmetric ones. This is why Taiwan has moved towards consentrating on their own ability to threaten the Chinese mainland. It is a more effective deterrent. Amphibious landings against modern weapons are a joke proposition.
@peterisawesomeplease I agree…so tired of hearing about the military might of Russia and China. It’s been grossly exaggerated for decades.
Let's be honest, a major portion of Taiwan's strategy for dealing with China in the event of an invasion involves drawing the United States into the conflict.
Do you think India , Japan and Korea would stay out of it or get involved?
@@ramjam6934 I think Japan is already preparing for it. They have been building their military up recently. Korea would depend on what North Korea says and does. I have no idea what india would do tbh. I also don't know if any of them have a treaty with Taiwan similar to ours.
@@DanVerley I meant South Korea but yeah I imagine it would be interesting to see what either would do
I know you mean South Korea. I was saying that what South Korea does will depend on what North Korea says and does.
@@DanVerley true and vice versa
Showing ones strength to an adversary and having it well known is the key to any deterrence. Many wars including much of WW2 would never have happened if the attacking side really knew what they were up against.
in ww2 the allies showed weakness through appeasement. usa was out of the picture. russia had a pact with germany. the west today shouldnt make the same mistake again.
Not quite. Hitler really was stupid enough to have started a war anyways. His generals told him it was suicide, even while the offensive in the east was still going well.
trumps whole philosophy of peace thru strength
Switzerland is mountainous and armed to the teeth. It has underground (under rock) shelters enough to house it's entire population.
Fortress Switzerland has not been successfully invaded in what... 600 years? Minefields can make life precarious for ships. And there is a proposal to nuke the three gorges dam floating around. Best idea is to not invade.
Not really this perspective doesn’t really make sense until the Germans attacked the Soviets and the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor the war was happening for 2 years before both of these events
It doesn’t take much to interrupt the ship to shore movement. Once that happens the elements on the far shore are in deep trouble.
It's not ship to shore movement you need to worry about, it's the ten thousand drones per day and PHL-16 rain you need to worry about.
@@vlhc4642Worry about both. But in the end, ship to shore will be what determines everything.
Bombing campaigns rarely ever force an enemy into submission. It's the invading force that does that job.
The most worry thing happen, if china attack taiwan it will effect ecomony the whole word, it devistate more than rusia-ukraine war.. the increase price + inflation + supply food + oil + tech suply + electronic etc its scary
@@SuperCatacata You know the word "siege" came from the Latin word "sit", as in to "siege" a fort is to sit back and wait til they surrender under your blockade.
Taiwan is an island with just 2 month of fuel, you don't actually need any bombing campaign to force them into submission. The bombing campaign just helps convince them to submit faster.
@@vlhc4642 best for China to just send special forces planted inside Taiwan in to capture DPP leadership. Then begin blockade.
I hope Taiwan never gets invaded. The free world stands with you.
like those NATO voted NO for Palestine join the UN?
The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that unmanned aerial weapons, MANPADS and drones will play a far more significant part in any future conflicts. Taiwan should be building up these resources
Oops China is the world largest producer and exporter of Drones...
buy more DJI
@@billyong6878DJI is the biggest drone industry of China, which is banned by US government when the USArmy was trying to buy and use DJI
99% of combat drone by both sides are from China.
Taiwan has in fact supplied mortar-round carrying drones to Ukraine.
Taiwan needs to talk to the Swiss about their tunnels
You need anti ship wall and air defense and drone defense. Long range anti ship and artillery .
I like how Taiwanese admiral left sea drones part out. Which can become the most painful point during the warfare.
This can disrupt supply and blockade military forces at no cost. Ukrainian war showed the effectiveness of that weapon.
Care to check who’s the world’s largest drone manufacturer?
@@DY-fy2jh Although China has more aerial drone capabilities and presumably that might transfer to marine drones too, it's also true that their USVs aren't going to have as much targets as Taiwan's will. Taiwan could use USVs against incoming Chinese ships.
I don't think that was a mistake. Many of the most sensitive details critical to any military operation tend not to be brought up, at least for now.
Unfortunately, China is also aware of drone capabilities. Last I heard, they were testing a supposedly civilian small cargo ship that just happens to be capable of doubling as a remote drone carrier. Not sure what's the status on that, but yeah, the future arms race looks very drone-intensive for all sides.
@@poppinc8145
Chinese are not stupid.
They will entirely crush Taiwanese military sites with millions of missiles even before any actual invasion.
Turkey already has one I believe
Spot on... He's absolutely right. Many , small makes overwhelming very much more difficult.
Unfortunatily Taiwan is too close to China.
Being an island was a blessing in 1949 but not in 2023 since the island’s survival depends on US transports to sustain the resistance. In all war game scenarios US & allies were not able to keep Taiwanese sea lanes open without directly attacking assets on the mainland and risk starting WW3. Unlike Ukraine, supplying Taiwan would be nearly impossible once the war breaks out.
Why are Americans talking about wars and invasions at length? China can just go about its business and ignore them.
@@northernsamba7388 China should ignore them but they don't. They fire missiles over the island, discuss "reunification", and Chinese territory.
This missiles are for American warships.@@michaelhutchings6602
I don't see why firing on the Chinese mainland would be an issue. If China attempts to stop a US Navy convoy headed to Taiwan, then they've already started WW3, and China has already lost.
As a Chinese, America won be able to do anything really. If it does, then china has 1000's of Hypersonics to level most of the major US cities into rubble. Infact dropping one mega nuke on the yellowstone volacano alone will make US uninhabitable for centuries. American's need to remember they are fighting China not some insurgents in the middle east with their pet goats.
Taiwan's strategy is to rely on the US, that's it lol
Yankee globalists love to get others to die for them, a la Ukraine
@@chasx7062 Well Taiwan's strategy getting Americans to die for them, so we seem to be at an impass.
@@vlhc4642 they will die first i think..the US wont send soldier to die in taiwan..only weapons..like ukraine..
Taiwan can threat U.S. into submission by accepting a peaceful unification term with China and hand over their entire chip manufacturing capacity to Chinese if U.S. dare not come to help.
There a good reason why the US and her allies in the region are making a new island defensive chain system. The goal of it to basically dismantle the China navy during it invasion. Making China force to choose between striking at a American carrier strike force or the defensive front that can do not only cripple but has the potential to stop the invasion with short range strikes onto it fleet.
You mean like the QUAD? Where Japan was vocal about not interfering (Orianna Skylar) for fear of retribution? Or India, who's best buds with Russia?
That's why Aukus was formed btw, no one in Asia is going to fight US wars lol
@@accountantthe3394India might have close relations with Russia, but that has never been true for the Chinese.
@@paulcruz168lmao??? The Chinese and Russian are kinda buddies. Many believe in India and abroad like you that USSR or Russia has always been a friend to India... But do you know a very lesser known fact? Just before the 1962 Indo China war.. The Chinese Premiere spoke to the Russian Premier and informed him that a possible invasion of India was brewing. The Russian Premier Delayed the delivery of Mig 21s to India which cost us the war. It was one of Russia's deliberate attempts to Please Beijing and choose Beijing over NCR(National Capital Region of India). If an imminent war breaks out now..... Then India will have to face China alone without Russian help. This is exactly the reason why India is steadily shifting towards the West and also Arab and African nations and even SEA and Australia, Japan, Korea.
Taiwan needs lots of torpedos and anti ship missiles and maybe even seamines
so many oil ships routes surround this area, seamines and torpedoes can easily backfire.
you need to come to help us
@@user-sk7rt4qu7bThe ship routes are mostly Chinese. I don't think many non-Chinese ships would even use the Taiwan Strait during a war scenario.
and Sea Drones
@@terrytang7641i think we would more likely ship out the people and blow up the factories
"Relying on allies to come to their aid", meanwhile those allies are building their own chip manufacturing plants so that they don't rely on Taiwan anymore....
this means nothing... lol
only 5 nm will be built outside of taiwan.
Therefore, those allies will be dependent for several decades
and have strong motive to send soldiers to die in Taiwan.
With or without microchips. USA wouldn't go to war with a nuclear armed giant like chinaa. That would be suicidal.
Opps, we accidentally gave Nuclear weapons to Taiwan.
Taiwan: Why thank you WSJ, I guess we die now.
The Wall Street Journal clearly cares more about the Taiwanese than the Americans in Hawaii.
i know the answer! cuz people in Hawaii has freedom! they will be fine, right?
@@shawnz3307 Yes, it is true to have the freedom to be burned to ashes.
And the CCP troll army cares more about fires in Hawaii than the flooding near Beijing.
Crazy world we live in. 🙁
I always thought they used the dam doomsday strategy to protect themselves
USA doesn't want Taiwan to have Nukes. But perhaps in the interests of peace, Taiwan could get The Rods of God up in space that would only be used when necessary.
@@dtsai I was referring to the destruction of the three gorges dam
@@AvuncularMicah That does seem like a very good deterrence strategy similar to having nukes. However, they do not yet have the capability to certainly penetrate the air defences and deal enough damage so it fails massively. Dam is a hardened structure and has many ''layers'' so it isn't even know how much damage you actually need to do for it to fail.
@@arturturkevych3816 it’s not my plan .
@@AvuncularMicah I know that it isn't:) It's a possible strategy for Taiwan to have deterrence.
they need more modern submarines as well
Water is too shallow
Nope
They are building their homemade submarines, which will be ready for testing this Sep...
the sub model?
They need to stop becoming the pawn of the US if they don't want to die for the elites making money from these conflicts
Asymmetric warfare against tanks with hand held missiles is easy, but there hasn't been a hand held missile ever produced that can sink a warship. Only a Harpoon like missile is capable of putting a warship to the bottom of the sea, by basically splitting the ship in two. This can't be done with a hand held missile.
Always be prepared, but I think China learned it's lesson in the 1950's to not invade Taiwan.
In Taiwan's case, every single million in their defense budget is completely justified
the problem is they spend it on weapon and not soldier. which is why alot of their pilot quit and went to the mainland. if war break up, taiwan has no reserve pilot to draw from.
Even the weapons are not delivered after long wait?
Knowing how much the CCP is breathing down their necks, they’re not investing nearly enough in their defense. It’s quite astounding.
LIke the their single amphibious assault ship they spent billions on for photo-ops?
😂YES ! U$A "care" about Taiwan .
drones for Taiwan cost 1.5 million
drones for India cost 1 million
Why mankind still sees war as an option is beyond my comprehension. 😔
All living things fight each other, including bacteria, monkeys and lions. It's just a cruel part of our nature
China attacking Taiwan would be like people with muskets attacking people with machine guns
A good video to recommend after I just booked a flight to Taipei 😅
What will US do ?
... we should maybe not share this with China ...😂
Step 1: Build Giant Death Robots
Step 2: Build Costal Walls
Step 3: Flood the planet
Step 4: Choose Synthetic Technocracy
Step 5: Spam Step 1!!!
Their strategy is still in the 1970s, while their equipments are mostly old trashes from 1940s to 1960s... Imagine using WW2 submarine in 2023
How can the U.S. refuse to recognize Puerto Rico as a soveriegn nation, but they do for Taiwan?
Because in open and free elections, Puerto Ricans overwhelmingly reject independence. The only real debate there is whether to keep the status quo or whether to apply for statehood.
don't forget that Japan is almost finished establishing its 'Missile Wall' in North-East of Taiwan
never heard that before, what's that?
theyre plonking missiles on their southern islands near taiwan which china, has claims to itself.@@xDomglmao
@@xDomglmao a term I believe was said by Johnny Harris on Japan heavily militarizing the Ryukyu Island Chain where they installed Long Range Missiles capable of reaching the Taiwan Strait or the mainland China.
reference: ua-cam.com/video/plHRRFHZ_f0/v-deo.html
thanks to both of you! @@monoken
the question: will they involved?
and they all lived happily ever after
This is not an invasion, Taiwan is an autonomous province of China, like Tibet.
Taiwan never received paperwork or contract proving its independence.
Because the PRC stated they'd invade Taiwan if they declared formal independence.
Even small army can defeat bigger army by right plan and technology.
中国制造能力超强 二战时期全拉满都比不上现在的中国 直接发射火箭炮和导弹 把台湾打烂就行了
🙏,God bless🇰🇷🇺🇲🇹🇼🇵🇭
This conflict, if it happens is SO MUCH more important than Ukraine.
We only care about the semiconductor industry. Move Taiwanese semiconductor companies to the US and leave the island alone.
I am following Kings & Generals' Pacific campaign that was fought between Japan and the Allies. It's mind boggling how many amphibious assaults both sides conducted throughout the campaign. And in between those assaults, you have the successful ones, the not-so-successful ones, and the failed ones. Then there were so many battles fought just to resupply the armies already landed. From the Japanese side, you have the early 1942 campaigns where they conducted so many amphibious landings all around the Pacific - from Philippines, to Malaya, to Dutch East Indies, Guam, Wake, and so on. And then the US did the same from Guadacanal to the Pacific islands, all through Iwojima and Okinawa.
And that's just the Pacific campaign - there were amphibious operations done in the European theater too by the Allies - the North African landing, the Sicilian landing, the South France landing, and of course the famed Normandy landing. Even Germany conducted some amphibious assault in their invasion of Norway and the airborne operations of Cretan assault. The amount of experience accumulated by not just the US but Japan and other belligerents in amphibious assaults were immense.
Meanwhile, China has conducted 0 amphibious assault in modern time. Can they excel in their first try by just learning from military history? If the generals and its officers were first rate students and implementers of those studies, maybe?
In fact, what you call those experiences have long been lost in the dust of history, and modern Westerners only have the experience of the war on terror, and everyone is at the same starting line in the great power war
As long as there is a need to defend one's self or one's country, we are not civilized yet.
its a human thing has nothing to do with being civilized
@@millennium677
Speak for yourself.
@@dianahill5116 Man woman black white gay straight doesn’t matter who’s in charge war is in our blood and it’s a part of human nature and no matter how hard we try we can never change human nature
@@millennium677
Speak for yourself.
@@millennium677 There is no such thing as human nature. Humans behave differently across cultures. Among the Amish for example, there are nearly no reported murders. It is scarcity that creates viciousness between organisms, and it doesn't stop with humans.
Chinese: write that down write that down
exposing their own strength and strategic areas, a deadly mistake
Taiwan needs to hide weapon assets in shipping containers. Very hard to pick out which to destroy if there are tens of thousands of them.
I don’t know if Mainland China wants to invade Taiwan, but I know the Americans won’t be spilling blood and steel to defend Taiwan. Just look at the homeless drug addicts in SF and you’ll know what a disaster we are in here.
They could also use mobile semi autonomous underwater cruise missile batteries using liquid fuel propulsion.
Also semi autonomous underwater long range torpedoes. They could automatically surface to recharge their batteries once a month, using a thin film solar panels on their surface.
Also about 200,000 drones with AI vision and object targeting with autonomous engagement.
You clearly dont know what is blockade. No shipping route for taiwan during wartime.
We are currently seeing in Ukraine how anti-ship missiles can be a cheap, powerful deterrent against navies. The Russian Black Sea fleet won't come within 150 km of the Ukrainian controlled coast.
Excellent
Comparing total soldier numbers is misleading, as China could not commit all of these troops to battle, whereas Taiwan could, as it has no other enemies. One needs to consider it is the 3rd largest nation and has a land border of 22,117 km border with 14 countries. In particular, India might take advantage of any depleted troops to recover and gain territory. Of course, it would still be able to outnumbered Taiwan, but this needs to balanced a defending force that just needs to hold out for a few weeks while its allies mobilise.
India doesn't not have the logistics to travel far into Tibet
At most they only 3 to 5 days of supply on average for high mountain ranges 😂
And India has not forgotten about how British treated India before independence and how the US treated India when it needs weapons during the cold war
They are not gullible enough to be the next pawn of the west lol
But who knows
MSM knows how to educate Americans about interfering other countries' affairs
Example: doing it for freedom and democracy 😂
Why not both? As we shift our focus to the pacific, we should be able to access hundreds of billions in more funding to put towards taiwans defense.
Why not? It’s not like Americans need those billions for infrastructure, healthcare or housing….
koreanistan vietnamnistan afghanistan ukrainistan taiwanistan
usanistan - the end
money cant solve that, in spite of what your reddit education tells you. 700BN is put towards ending homelessness, biden just signed 100bn infrastructure, and we put more of our taxes to healthcare than any other country.@@angus7278
When PRC attack, ROC must show they can hold the island on its own during the early stage of the fight, if not USA may also bomb TSMC facilities to prevent PRC get hold of the facilities. Potentially getting bomb by both enemy and friend. What a tough position.
I have never thought of bombing tsmc, that is crazy. Considering this means PRC loses either way.
😁美国轰炸台湾是对中国的战争行为，你考虑过后果吗?我们的对等报复，就是清理掉日本韩国中的美军基地，而且事先向全世界通报。
TSMC has been known to have self-destruct mechanism in the event of war. To prevent technology transfer to any invading party.
I thunk they already put selfdestruct button at the facility..just in case of attack
US will force TSMC move to US before the war. And offer green card to engineers and their families..
The music is pure fire 🔥🔥🔥
Invasion😂 ,please learn the history of China, Taiwan was separated from mainland China due to civil war, and the civil war has not end😢
Keep Spreading The Love ❤
It’s not getting mentioned much but the Panama Canal is experiencing a lot of issues. The Pacific Ocean sits higher than the Atlantic so ships need to pass thru 3 lock gates. Due to droughts only 32 ships can pass thru a day with draft or weight limits in place to preserve fresh water. This could seriously limit the US ability to resupply or move assets
What do you mean by the Pacific Ocean sits higher than the Atlantic Ocean? I know the lock gates are there to level the boats with the fresh water lakes in Panana but I'm curious to know your answer to my question.
True but the fact that you know this means the US military already has it figured out.
Interesting, thanks for sharing. 👍
The naval assets we'd need to put china in its place are already in the Pacific. This isn't 1945 when most of US assets were centered on the East Coast. We have major bases in Philippines, Japan, Korea, already. They would all be attacked preemptively by china if they expect to survive more than a week. (Those attacks would also result in a defacto state of war between China and S Korea, China and Japan, and China and Philippines- forcing china to stretch its resources even further).
Not to mention bases in the remote pacific islands like Guam midway Hawaii etc.
Unlike any other major nation, the US doesn't really need to fear direct attack on its homeland. That means we can send large portions of our collective assets to one region, and not leave ourselves open to attack.
So many nations rely on the US for their national security so if the US is actually attacked (as it would be if china invaded taiwan) many would immediately come to the aid of the Americans. Australia is in a similar position as S. Korea and Japan, concerned over China's aggression. I believe they would similarly step in as they've been building up their military as well in preparation of this conflict. The UK joins us in most of our wars anyway. Should Aus be directly engaged, then the UK would be as well. In a defensive war such as this, Canada and Germany would similarly join.
Obviously all would if Article 5 is activated but IIRC it is not automatically activated if the attack on a NATO nation occurs outside the north Atlantic. However, most nato nations wouldn't care about that distinction in the event of a sizable attack such this.
Finally, trumping all those factors is one simple factor: microchips. For some stupid reason, no one realized what a stupid idea it is to have all the world's microchips made in one spot. Even if that one spot were as safe as, idk... Kansas, it would still be an all eggs, one basket situation.
Now let's put that basket right next to our biggest rival. Granted we didn't know they'd be our biggest rival until about 10 or 20 yrs ago, but still we knew they sought to recapture taiwan.
Regardless, we've had at least a decade to start building those microchip plants here. Some would be coming online now had we done so. But we are really only starting to do so now.
Bc we've allowed our internal squabbles dominate our focus. Even when we aren't squabbling domestically, large portions of us say we need to only focus on ourselves and stop policing the world. Which is true, of course, but we don't have that luxury yet.
I fear we adapt too slowly sometimes. This is such an enormous ship - by far the biggest ever built - this ship of state turns very slowly. It accelerates slowly. It's slow to stop. And its captain is never the best person for captain; its captain is the person best at becoming captain.
@@burtan2000 WOW! That was an outstanding reply / comment, well done! 👍
we all have to stop chinese aggression
是内战好吧
Taiwan needs to adopt a Finland-style, whole of society defense.
Funny, those Chinese people living in Taiwan calling themeselves Taiwanese are not even indigenous to the island.
braindead comment. You can say the exact same thing about any country in the Americas.
When did ever communists care about casulaties?
Hit and run guerrilla warfare is what you do when you care about causalities, frontal attack into superior force is when you don't. KMT frontal attacks, CCP hit and run, Vietnam hit and run, Ukraine front attacks, Disregard for human life has, is, and will always be the signature of western culture.
Taiwan's best best second layer of defence is autonomous AI attack drones that don't solely rely on GPS. They would have inertia, GPS, magnetic and terrain map navigation and AI target object recognition and be immune to electronic warfare. They would be snipers and Kamikaze mix of drones, small, medium and large.
AI is the latest shiny new thing, but suddenly it's everyone's most tried-and-true friend?
Russian lancets are best Taiwan should buy thousands of Russian lancets
That wont happen. Russia is aligned with China.
@@manofsan Yes AI will change the future for the better especially when we can make it living
LOL, and China can out produce Taiwan here like what, 20:1 or is it 30:1? Not to mention China has like what, 10x as many targets? LOL.
i don't think taiwanese has the determination to perform guerrilla warfare or something like that. the biggest obstacle to china is always the international reaction, not taiwan itself
cheapest solutions are Best Solutions. Cheap anti ship Drones & Manpads can do enormous damage to PLA, PLAN efforts to takeover without collateral damages. Make this war very hard & expensive for CCP with body bags going back into Mainland
I agree 👍
FOR WINNING PEOPLE'S LOSER ARMY NEEDS TO FIGHT & I DOUBT THEIR REAL FIGHTING ABILITIES 😅😅😅😅😅.
What a wildly different world we would live in IF Taiwan was in control of the mainland.
En un mundo vendido a los intereses de eeuu, el unico imperio que ataca en todo el globo mientras acusan a los otros que no hace nada
EEUU promueve ideologias degenerativas y destructivas como los lgbt y muchos otros. Viviriamos en un mundo podrido.
China's GDP would be 3 times the size of USA. You need to thank CCP for holding CHina back.
Thank the Japanese empire for screwing over the Republic of China, which at one time did rule the country.
The case is that now Taiwan is completely independent and wants nothing to do with China.
dang it...why did they give it away?
The war for Taiwan is basically going to be BF4 irl
Taiwan must legalize gun ownership and encourage its' citizens to learn how to shoot by sponsoring rifle clubs and marksmanship competitions. That would be the most cost effective way to make the PLA think twice before setting foot on Taiwanese soil.
it only increase casualties in taiwan. This is very easy to solve in war time. Taiwan is very small with only 24M people, just divided taiwan in small pieces and move taiwan people group by group to Xinjiang, then freeze food supply for half year. Soon taiwan will be clean.
This will never happen. The entire Taiwanese populace has already completely bought into the "Guns bad, Americans are stupid for having guns" narrative held by the rest of the world.
@@strassmanncai It would be best if the USA sells its nukes to Taiwan to use immediately on the 3 gorges dam. Wouldn't that be great? Mainland will be called West Taiwan! :)
@@r0bmc745
@@r0bmc745the US sells Britain Trident II SLBM delivery vehicles. I believe the nuclear warheads are British design and production, but, yeah . . .
If the strategy is outdated, the US can help them upgrade their weapons.
better weapons don't win wars - usa itself lose all the time🤣
Like China did in the Korean war ahahaha with more troops even @@bobevans9996
Anti missile and aircraft system is the key
Nah
Long range missles are going to saturate those systems
Which China has plenty of to counter US interference 😂
Did I hear Armor Wehicle? Must be some advanced system?
If the PLA lands on Taiwan, asymmetrical warfare is the only hope Taiwan has. However, Taiwan needs enough anti-ship, surface to air, and surface to surface missiles to defeat any PLA force from landing on Taiwan. These missiles need to be stocked on Taiwan, dispersed across the island. PLA ships should have to run an impenetrable gauntlet to reach the island.
The war in Ukraine really showed how far war has gone in terms of technology. With the drones, hypersonic missiles, etc. Taiwan must take great care not to underestimate its opponent here.
Taiwan, as Ukraine, is not opponent. They are just pieces to be sacrificed by real opponents.
Thats not close to accurate for every hyper sonic and every super drone there are a 100 toy drones with a grenade very low tech. They have dug miles of trenches and shoot old arty at one another daily ww1 style. Ukraine mobilized an additional 700k men, Russia 300 k men over a million men dig holes and throw shells day and night not advancing but a few meters. Old tanks have been brought back to serve , plowing forward head on, War reverted if anything.
@@TP-ie3hj China will wallop the US. The US Lost the war in Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, how are they going to beat China in their own backyard, Goodluck
@@TP-ie3hj This is definitely the most advanced we’ve seen in a war yet. Lower tech is being used due to low supply and high risk of losing newer more valuable assets. It’s not as spectacularly advanced as many would’ve liked to believe we are capable of at the moment, but to date it’s the greatest showing for military technological advancement in a large scale war, absolutely. Cyber warfare, extremely challenging logistics, integration of drones on a scale we’ve never seen before (even underwater drones capable of blowing up bridges), Patriot missiles and s300/400’s on opposite sides of 4th gen fighters going at, what other modern war has showcased a technological level this high? There are weapons being used for literally the first time ever, how is it possible it’s not the most advanced lol
I may simply be mistaken about what you first wrote. I would not disagree with what you have here. Two near peer combatants not seen for quite some time , not on this scale. Yes Kinzhals vs, patriots, the Himars and LACM strikes. Leopards versus T90, KA 52 versus cv90... very much a modern battlefield in that sense.
So much so that the Bayraktars and many other wonder waffen have canceled each other out. Leaving the war down to the infantry and arty like the wars of old. The attention grabbers like the IED jet ski, and the kids toy with rpg duct taped to it is not what I would call high tech. Just necessary. Very low tech and took it that you were stating these variants are why you believed it to be high tech.
The East of Taiwan is not safe thus I suspect that is the Reason why the US setup an EDCA site at the Philippines Northern most tip that is VERY CLOSE to Taiwan's East coast..
Hey, technically, the civil war started in 1946 didn't end, there wasn't a ceasefire agreement, the civil war was simply paused by the Korean War and Korean War didn't end either.
China will never attack Taiwan unless one of the following 1 Taiwan declares referendum on independence 2 develope its own nuclear program 3 external forces to assist in the island independence. ... if none of that... stay clam and carry on
What happen to HongKong? Communlist China cant be trusted.
...no amount deterrence would work if China really decide to go for it.
Ten foot walls are no match for eleven foot ladders.
@@Stinger522 with their collapsing economy , China can only afford 2 foot ladders, so Taiwan will be fine
@@aliali-ce3yf A faltering economy dies not stop someone from going to war.
@@aliali-ce3yf Collapsing at a rate of 5.5% GDP growth and 7.3% retail sales growth, as has been for the last 20 years
@@aliali-ce3yfThis is my first time seeing a Gordon Chang fanatic, how many years? decades has it been? Did China collapsed? I guess 1% is higher than 5%
How do you counter a Chinese invasion? Step One: you don't explain it to a WSJ reporter.
In 1683, the Kangxi Emperor said specifically that “Taiwan is outside our empire and of no great consequence” and even offered to have the Dutch buy it back. Perhaps this is an inconvenient truth for the current rulers in Beijing. When Japan won the 1894-1895 Sino-Japanese war, the Qing government in Beijing agreed under Treaty of Shimonoseki that Taiwan would be ceded to Japan in perpetuity. The elites in Taiwan, including governor Tang Jingsong, sided with the local Taiwanese gentry and declared an independent Formosa Republic to forestall becoming part of Japan. 1949 Until the Present: Separate Existence
From the abovementioned information it is clear that the claim “Taiwan has always been part of China” is dubious at best. It was always at the periphery - and most of the time outside the periphery - of the Chinese empire. When Communist rule was established on the mainland in 1949 the previous Nationalist Government fled to Taiwan and it has remained out of reach to Beijing since.
The strategy should be to cause massive losses to the PLA when crossing the strait, to prevent the PLA gaining a toehold on the Island.
The PLA isn't going to blindly rush across the strait like Gallipoli or even Normandy.
PLA can easily lose 10 thousand drones a day crossing the strait
Can Taiwan afford to lose 10 thousand SAM a day?
@@beeperbeeperson lol, wow,.
First Taiwan isn't where all transistors come from, Taiwan makes most 5nm and below processing chips used in phones and GPUs, and drones processors use 28nm chips, maybe 14nm at most, and the vast majority of chips are power transistors, power regulators and radio modules that uses even bigger nodes. In other words nobody need Taiwan to build drones.
Second China is one of the worlds largest maker of 28nm chips, has been mass producing 14nm for a few years now and just started mass producing 7nm. DJI has been under US sanctions for 2 years now, did they care?
Three, drones needs a lot more than just chips, you need cameras, radios, batteries, motors, motor drivers, and composites. Taiwan has none, its' all China.
The only way Taiwan can build any drone is to buy from Aliababa, infact they had a scandal last year where they had to send their military drone to mainland China for repairs.
@@vlhc4642 China doesn't have 10 thousand drones with the range to cross the Taiwan strait. The cheap commercial quad copter and small fixed wing drones being used in Ukraine can't travel anywhere close to that far. And you don't need SAMs to counter drones. Ukraine is very effectively countering slow moving drones with small arms fire and mounted machine gun fire (anti aircraft guns). The German supplied Gepard anti aircraft gun is very effective.
@@user-ow1bn6qv8qis it effective or did the MSM said it is effective ?
Lee is basically describing the porcupine strategy and it's pretty much the consensus of military experts now. There is however still a political dimension: shiny F-16s falling out of the sky are more potent and recognizable symbols of American friendship than generic rocket launchers.
You might want to rephrase your "F-16's falling out of the sky" remark.
A much better strategy is to play nice with China and do not force their hand - this way Taiwan can stay semi independent for decades.
@@tomk3732 That is the current strategy. While decades ago Taiwan wanted to declare independence and the only reason they did not was the US threatening them to stop aid. Now they don't even think about independence and have record trade with China. Status quo is not the worst outcome for both parties and can last indefinitely
@@arturturkevych3816 Now US however, wants to make Taiwan go independent - tables have turned. Status quo is of course best for China and Taiwan but not so much for US.
@@tomk3732 The US does not want Taiwan to go independent. There haven't been any signals from Washington for them to move towards independence.
How would war benefit the US? China is it's biggest trading partner and that war is likely to drag the US in with huge risks and consequences. What Americans want as well is maintaining the status quo.
Does the ‘Ireland’? Really?
"Admiral on how he'd fail at repulsing an invasion"
I’m afraid that this isn’t going to be a easy feet for China. China has a military budget of 293 billion dollars with 2,510,000 military personnels while a 2023 US-led coalition currently have a military budget of 1,481 billion dollars ($1.48 trillion) with 20,594,361 military personnels. United States have 8 times more total troops with 5 times the military budget. Would be extremely hard for China to catch up to those types of numbers. Invasion wars are never a easy thing to accomplish, it’s rather hard to impossible I say. If somehow in a miracle China accomplishes this then China would go from being broke back to being officially whole again. But the likelihood of China being successful on taking Taiwan is between impossible and possible seeing that the Chinese would get outnumbered and defeated. But hey, I don’t claim myself to be a military expert I just based it on what I’m seeing in Ukraine and the potential firepowers involved in this Taiwan conflict.
There will not be anywhere near that amount of men on Tiawan. The island is too small and China will need to leave men on the mainland to secure its borders.
US have 8 times more troops than China? Which universe do you live in.
What mean 'Chinese invasion'? Taiwan people are also Chinese and have name 'Republic of China' )
@@kastus77"China"? You must mean West Taiwan
China has the geographic advantage of being right next to Taiwan while all the opposing military assets have to pass a Chinese blockade. 😃😃😃😃😃
As a Taiwan citizen, we discuss more about whether the US will come to assist us, rather than how we can keep the invasion from happening or make it impossible.
I think this video provides a great insight on how we can defend ourselves against china. This is more important than thinking about the US’s aid, since we can not change US’s decision effectively, but we can change the strategy and mindset to make Taiwan undefeated.
Don't be naive. It's not an issue could be settled by military considerations.
我可太喜欢你们都参与抵抗了，能减少我们的治理成本。
Taiwan doesn’t take its defense very seriously. It’s spending is far below what it should be.
What is the chance of you fighting against Mike Tyson and win 😅
@@bellavista643 If your metaphor is correct and matches the reality, than why Mike Tyson doesn’t just come to fight us and win without a doubt?
interesting how his strategy speaks to the individual warrior on the battlefield in the 21st century. Many small units with some real punch doing major work.
To secure peace is to prepare for war
Taiwan 🇹🇼 will never renounce the right to annihilate China if it's invaded.
Honestly Taiwan’s main goal needs to be keeping its anti-ship missiles alive during the opening CCP missile salvos launched pre invasion
If they’re still left with the majority of their stock, any invasion is next to impossible. Even if China manages to land troops on the mainland, crucial logistics ships within 100km of of the coast would be like shooting fish in a barrel. Guns win battles, logistics win wars
Nah, China would do island hopping - i.e. it would get closer and closer to Taiwan. Eventually Taiwan would loose its missiles or run out. They could not make any more as their factories would be on fire.
Also China has nice asymmetric methods to transport a lot of troops.
There won't be any "opening missiles salvos", you're talking about a country that builds 20 thousand drones a day in peacetime just for commercial use, if they start shooting it's just one giant salvo that last however long it takes until there's nothing to shoot at anymore.
Can’t China just release a million ship drones and bleed Taiwan’s anti ship missile stock dry?
@@tomk3732 Then the US LRASM assets come into play and obliterate those "assymetric methods". Multiple wargames have played out showing that in the first 2 months both US and CCP would run out of missiles but it would come at the cost of 80% of the Chinese navy and Taiwan holds off against a CCP landing, even in the worst case scenario.
@@kali7148 You don't need a simulation to figure out who would win in the long run - China. Why? They have well over 2x production capacity of US. Just like in WWI and WWII the stronger wins. Its that simple.
And to make it worse for US - China is only getting stronger vs. US.
more effective would be to offer a $20 bribe to all air and navy personnel to get lost, confused or accidenty throw ammo over board.
Taiwan is one province of China. The people live there also came from mainland of China.
PLA does not need to take the entire Taiwan. What stopped them from partitioning the island?
Becouse that would probably be the worst case nightmare scenario for the PLA. First they take heavy losses landing and taking a part of Taiwan, and now not only do they have to deal with local insurgencies, but there is still a part of the island where the enemy has their forces and can constantly launch small attacks on your positions. They either don't land at all or take the whole thing, anything in between would be a huge pain.
Both Taiwan and PRC never said they stop the civil war. So ‘invade’ is not precise, continue attacking is better
I’m convinced that the US should give Taiwan a combination of 250 Pershing missiles and stealthy
Cruise missiles. Then give them a minimum of 2000 anti-ship missiles.
It’s beyond me that with Chinas military, air and navy strength combined with there coastline proximity to Taiwan people are gullible enough to believe the US would be able to supply and or alleviate the situation there. Not a single ship would even make it past our base in Okinawa
I mean I think as a member of the public we truthfully have little idea of either country’s full capabilities. That being said, I think you drastically underestimate the US’s investment into this region both financially and strategically. A ship doesn’t need to go past our base in Okinawa cause we already have a bunch of them out there and we’ve been expanding on the surrounding areas, like the Philippines.
That being said, I think the American Public vastly underestimate the capabilities of the Chinese military. And they’re most likely more formidable than we give them credit for.
@@TheRolocker sorry I’ve used Americas last 4 conflicts as my examples and if they can’t beat guerrilla forces then they surely can’t win a conventional war directly with China. Simply not possible
Just have Taiwan aim some missiles at Shanghai, Beijing amd guangzhou. Even if one missile goes through, you have thousands of casualty 😂😂
@@WonderfulLidoff oops why don t Ukraine fire some missiles into Moscow..same principle why won t North Korea fire some missiles into New York ...because the consequense is Kiev will be a Hiroshima..same as Pyongyang and Taipeh..so do use your logic..do you really want to actually harm the major civilian population centre of the 3 superpowers...This will constitute an existential threat to its civilian population..which is likely to lead to either a total conventional or nuclear destruction of the Kiev,Pyongyang,Taipeh...
@@WonderfulLidoffdestroy the three gorges dams and the causality becomes tens to hundreds of millions.
For now, China will not send its military to invade Taiwan. China will take at least ten years to build up more ships, submarines, more planes etc. They are also wary of the US sponsored military alliances and bases around them. At this point of time, they can only irritate by sending its ships and planes into Taiwanese waters and airspace. All that siren warnings is good enough to send fear, disrupt daily economic activities. Nations and governments must seek peace.
In ten years' time, their population will be 10 years older. They have to do this in next 2-3 years, or else their window of opportunity is gone.
All 差不多 in quality.....
The PLN isn't what one would call a modern navy. When I was in the USN; we were constantly having to chase China out of the territorial waters of other countries, where they didn't belong.
@@manofsan well then, shall we all be prepared for the worse case scenario? Who will then provide humanitarian aid, host the refugees etc?
@@Michaelong29 humanitarian aid for the aggressors? no thanks. great way to motivate them to stop attacking if your populace is starving
@@manofsan Taiwan's age demographic isn't that different from China's, though so it's a rather strange argument. Unless the taiwanese start youthening their population there's only a very small advantage at best for Taiwan not enough to make a difference if China can improve fleet capability and internal stability before the attack.