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Its past 12 am, the party is over, but the markets don't want to go home. Nothing good happens after 12 am. There will be drunk volatility, fights, and people staggering around till the cops show up and every one is forced to leave. Then the hangover hits.
We're bringing all of these Recession Watch conversations to UA-cam later this week so get ready. This is an important moment for us all to explore together.
That's awesome! So besides aiming at reducing losses, do any videos discuss ways to profit from the downturn? I understand it's both difficult and risky (e.g. market timing, shortselling) and am wondering how a non-professional but well prepared investor can profit.
@@esuus IMHO, If you want to stop any risk of loss, buy, and hold gold. If you want to gain, Buy and hold silver. I believe silver will out preform in both preservation, and gain. Only real problem would be safe personal storage. That's my 2 cents anyway.
@@esuus they call out a few straightforward ideas - buy gold, bitcoin, gdx. For the more sophisticated investor perhaps buying puts on the stock market could be a strategy?
@@esuus Yes. Stay tuned. We'll be releasing three videos on Wed and a new one almost every day the rest of the month. If you want to get them sooner you can go to www.realvision.com and subscribe today to unlock them. We don't normally put content like this up for free, but we think it's that important that we're doing it this time.
@@RealVisionFinance Seriously amazing production quality and great content! The only thing I would suggest is including subtitles for interviewees with very heavy accents
Raoul Pal and Real Vision are at the very pinnacle of important content relating to current world financial markets. Pal is a virtuoso at aggregating the best financial minds and distilling their historical wisdom in beautifully-produced videos. I have the highest admiration for his superb productions. He is a great visionary and artist.
Joe emerging from the cave .... population is growing and they are not making more land. Land is valuable, like gold. Yes, housing market fluctuates to some degree, and the you have taxes which sucks, but owning property, especially rental property is king. No matter what happens in the stock market, or with climate change, or even war, owning rental property is fairly safe investment for the long term. Because people need somewhere to live and population is exploding. Stock and paper cash is super risky, that I agree. One place I wouldn't buy land is in the Gulf of Mexico. Big oil wants it bad and they are behind the crazy making weather down there, driving property way down, driving folks out, so they can scoop it up cheap and put in biggest oil refinery in the world. No one talks about that, but watch and see.
Hi @@snowstormonsat Yes sure land is valuable, as long as it can produce something of value (eg farmland vs desert). Be careful with real estate though, wouldn't want to own any SF or NYC high end real estate right now, as they will tank first. Population is growing? Not so fast, birth rates in the US are dropping like a rock; www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/06/30/the-u-s-fertility-rate-just-hit-a-historic-low-why-some-demographers-are-freaking-out/ Immigration a solution? Don't expect too much from low IQ third worlders to contribute as they want free healthcare etc etc (sorry, just a fact, Honduras 81 anyone; brainstats.com/average-iq-by-country.html Look, prices in the real estate market depend on the mortgage markets, as people will no longer be able to pay for that mortgage as they will lose their jobs during the coming depression, uh recession, housing prices will take a severe beating. Oh, did I mention broke millenials, broke boomers, broke everybody, who can not afford to pay you a decent return on your real estate investment? Maintenance, zoning laws, real estate taxes, regulations et etc Add it all up, real estate doesn't look so pretty. Indestructible, divisable, portable, universally recognized as a store of wealth value, 5000 year history of continued wealth preservation (no wonder they don't want us to own gold) , and ...CB's accumulating gold like there is no tomorrow, do they know something we don't.... www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2018/09/11/central-banks-on-gold-buying-spree-over-dollar-worries/#108d8b8c1fc2
I got in just before last Christmas for reasons I cannot tell you as it was just some sense in my mind things were not right. I hold tangible gold by the way.
Can't eat it, can't shelter under it, can wear it but it doesn't keep you warm, can't even burn it. As Spain discovered when it opened the silver mines in the new world, metals are just another medium for exchanging surplus production. No surplus, no value. Interesting to hear the economists blaming the necessary remedial action for causing the problem. That's like saying my finances were fine until I paid the bill - if I hadn't paid it then I'd still have plenty of money.
I work for the railroad and I can attest to freight dramatically slowing down. I’m chasing work all over US currently. The old heads say when RR slows down recession is less than 6 months away.
I work in the electronic components distribution industry and our IPE division of parts have been down as well. Our main company in the UK RS Components has seen the same decline in semiconductors.
Joel Hollingsworth I’m in auto sales as a manager, it’s a bloodbath and it should be booming in the summer. From my viewpoint we are already in a recession.
Trucking is booming to the point that they can't hire enough truckers. Auto sales is a self-inflicted wound. Tesla challenged the industry to change and they've been dragging their feet. Tesla's Model 3 sales continue to boom. People like what they see from Tesla and would rather wait for the exact body style they want in an EV than commit to buying another obsolete gas guzzler.
@@dlwatib I can't see how. Transportation index is clearly in contraction. The last time transportation index was this low, the RR furloughed a lot of people. This happened in 2015.
Fed will cut by 0.5 in Sept. and then they will keep cutting by 0.25 to postpone recession until Q4 2020. So first official negative GDP report gonna be released in Jan 2021. We still have time to buy more gold, silver, w/e
I've been traveling along east coast this summer with my young daughter and we've been camping, can't afford hotels this year but the coast is packed. Restaurants are packed. We tried to eat at a popular steak house in wells Maine on the coast and it had 1 1/2 hour wait so we left. They said it's like every night of the week. I did notice demographics...mostly older baby boomer population. Beaches are packed, highways bumper to bumper. We travel midweek, so I know weekends are even more crowded. I heard campgrounds fill up on weekends, so maybe many others are traveling on the cheap too, but there are plenty of those expensive campers and mobile homes there. Those things are pricey. I'm tent camping, really roughing it. Only eating out once a day. Keeping the cooler full and eating cheap. Went to block island last week and it was packed. That place is super pricey. There's still money out there but in fewer hands. Mostly baby boomer demographics. I live in western MA and there are no good jobs here. I have several degrees including a masters in education and i waitress. I can't even get a job interview. This summer, I said screw it, we're going to the beach as much as possible cause I'm tired of being stressed and depressed. Making the mist of my time with my young daughter, cause in the end folks time is most precious and how you spend it and who you spend it with. Money comes and money goes, and I've done everything possible to get ahead and I can't and I give up.
I am sure everyone running in the Democrat primaries and the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party agrees with you, comrade! Recession before November 2020, dumpf Trumpf!
Very good work. Best breakdown yet I’ve found that corresponds with the series of events as I too expect them to play out. You just got a new subscriber
Please don't get my hopes up. I want to see people eating their pets to survive type of bad. If it's anything like 2008, then that is like a summer vacation.
@Kaze Be careful what you wish for. I have a bad feeling your vision will be closer to reality then I care for. When it all implodes - its not just the 1% that will be affected. We are going to see rioting in the streets when the food stops and then a quick hop to Marshall law and no rights.
@@spacegamer85 Your scenario isn't even that bad. I want to see bodies liter the streets from the chaos. Then a new virus was unleashed by a CIA scientist that spread a pandemic that wipes out 95% of the world population, and only a few people survives who have been living under a cave. Then humanity restarts again.
@Kaze The CIA doesn't need to unleash a virus (that they won't be able to control despite statements to the contrary. Hopefully they are not that stupid to try). Instead they just need to shut down the electrical power grid. Those plugged into the grid (roughly 95% of Americans) will be dead within 6 months. Just in time delivery of food will run out in 3 days. Without electricity - water and gas pumps won't work so transportation grinds to a halt. So disease will spread due to lake of sanitation. Warehouses will be confiscated by the government. You will have to subsist on whatever provisions you have stored. Anyone stupid enough to go to a FEMA camp will never be seen again. It will make what is happening in Venezuela look like a walk in the park.
it's not only the best content on youtube related to economics, but the visual quality of the videos is hands down the best. Great work guys, keep it up.
The Reagan boom was a demand-driven boom, not supply driven. Supply siders are blind ideologues, and I have to take with a grain of salt anyone who cites them as his primary sources of economic insight. Economic historians have been debating the Smoot-Hawley tariffs (which were far higher than anything being proposed today) for almost 90 years now, and the consensus is that they had only a weak effect on the further course of the depression. Even the tariffs that already existed *before* the passage of Smoot-Hawley were higher than anything being proposed today. There is no reason to think they need be any more intrinsically destructive than the mutual sales taxes that states have levied on interstate internet sales in recent years, a tax hike and disincentive for interstate trade that I did not like, but around which no national controversy raged and which certainly has not sunk the domestic economy or killed interstate trade or internet sales. Currency wars are worth worrying about, but the anti-tariff hysteria that insists the optimum level of taxation cannot possibly be higher than zero, or that tariffs are uniquely and magically evil in a way that no other tax is, has reached such a point of silliness that it can only be described as a New Dealer superstition, reminiscent of the fear that your ship will fall off the edge of the earth if you sail too far beyond the pillars of Hercules.
The search for truth is always a worthy & profitable exercise. I think you paint a very clear picture- recession is a spark that lights a much bigger fire on all fronts- social, political, & economic. Well done RVF.
The economy has been almost the exact image of 2007 and 2008. People did not learn anything before as they are going into debt to pay for houses that are hugely overpriced. As soon as this recession hits we will see peoples home values drop considerably and be worth so much less than the amount of the mortgage they signed, They will dump the property and we will see this cycle all over again!
RealVision! I love you! Thanks for the excellent content! You give the edge even for the Average Joe and don't let them again fool by the system! Thank you!
First time listener...... thanks for the work! not sure if i understand it all, but i do see in our retail {womans fashion } business a drop of about 30% in the last year.........here in Australia i find that the political class do more harm them good..in fact i feel as though we can plot the decline in consumer sentiment to a short lived and super conservative Prime Minister Mr. Tony Abbot , who ran the economy down so badly and so relentlessly during an election campaign that people were scared and shocked into not spending!!.......that fact that people believed him, surprises me more than anything else. People really are dumb....! again thanks for the content!!..
Raoul, Great breakdown of what might be coming and how it may unfold. Your Doom Loop and it's 3 phases appear to be well thought out, with each step being the logical outcome of the previous situation. The only thing I don't see happening is the last step of phase 3 - "Pension Funds Default". Not saying it couldn't occur, just can't see the gov't allowing the pension funds to actually default. A more likely scenario would be a "nationalization" of all pensions just before meltdown. The funny part is that while this is widely unpopular/unfathomable now. At the time of meltdown, these same people with openly advocate for it. Pensioners vote and for the political class that's all that matters. Lastly, it won't be a political event because states, from both sides of the aisle, have pensions in deep do-do (Illinois,Kentucky,New Jersey,Conn,Penn). I believe the states would love to offload these responsibilities and the blame that could come further down the road. It won't save us but it could kick the can further down the road.
Recessions are good for the economy. If we didn’t have periods of recessions could you imagine paying $15 million for a 1 bedroom home or $750,000 for a car. The working people in a recession makes low wages, the same working people during an economic boom still make low wages. Recessions flush the junk out and put prices back in check.
So the question is, is it worth being in mining stocks now before the big crash ? or will they also take a big hit when the crash comes ? also how much should you put into precious metals ? I'm 20% physical the rest of my assets are in cash ready to invest when the markets have crashed. Is that a dangerous strategy ?
The thing about equities, is that their price can be based on fundamentals and cash flow (which is about a strong as ever), but their price can also be speculative. I mean they are like any asset in that sense. If a stock is making no money, it regularly still holds a floating market price. It does not go to zero. In fact, when pessimism is maximum/high, like now for example, that is when you typically see the lowest price. I have not known people to have been this pessimistic about the future in a long time. This tells me that the speculative price of assets (forget the cash flows for now), should be about as low as it has ever been given geo-poilical problems around the world are as bad as they have been. It is hard to imagine people being more pessimistic about global markets than now.
IN fact, all that seems to happen, is strong hands take more equity stake in global brands, whilst the weak hands give it away, then complain there is a wealth gap. Well if you are unable or unwilling to hold companies throgh volatility, then you are destined to be poor, since the only billionaires I know, own huge amounts of shares in global brands. They just keep buying those dips.
@@mattb6646 but the problem is, economy need people to spend money. If there is no job, there is no money and nothing to spend. Just dream, a situation, where the technology is very efficient and the one who work in company are only the top management and robot engineer. Who will buy the products? No one buying means less revenue. Less revenue means less profit. And so on, and so on
The industrial revolution voided a lot of people. The tech boom voided a lot of people. Yet unemployment is low. A job becoming obsolete has never predicted a recession. Why would it now?
I very much appreciate the content on this channel! The discussions are for the most part well-reasoned and soberly presented, unlike so much of the financial “fear porn” out there. I do wonder, however, about the claim that Bitcoin is a “truth machine” or that it is digital gold (to the latter point, note that it has fallen 14% this week along with equities while gold and silver have risen).
Does the idea that pensions are the last thing to fall in the next cycle seem backwards to anyone else? The interplay between super strained pensions aggressively pumping money into equities and high equity prices seems like a starting point to me of things unraveling, not an end result.
We 're already in a Recession and a Big Depression is coming! Two weeks ago, I had a Pilot of Shop Lights delivered and I was the first morning delivery and my lap of was the only freight on that 40 foot trailer!
The recent Consumer Price index did not show any signs of a recession. Just a slightly weakened economy. Not to mention the bond market inverse yield curve being a sign as well.
One of the best videos I have seen on the current situation. The older gentleman at the end (Carol?) was spot on. If Bernie or Waren or one of the other dems become president, it will be very ugly very quick. He had so many good points I had to listen to what he said four times.
And thats part of the problem with wall st today. They seem capable of only functioning or being innovative within a low tax low regulated environmnent. Trumps deficits have all but guaranteed that tax raises will have to take place significantly over the next 8yrs. The sort of profiys or mkt highs we are witnessing nowadays are really abnormal. Never happened before in this countrys hisyory, to expect more of the same is jst ludicrous
Considering how young and volatile BTC and other crypto are, won't you expect them to become strongly correlated with other risky assets like Equities in a negative downturn? It could be something like the market thinking.... equities are falling, I need to invest in something safe like T-Bills or just hold cash, to stomach the vol. Taking money out of equities and holding BTC in a recession would take balls, even if its the rational thing to do. I'd be really skeptical with a long crypto trade in an equity sell-off.
@fireson23 you misunderstand. they said bitcoin requires no trust due to the decentralized nature. it is a network and exchange system based on math which has no oversight. the market decides the value, not a bank board. no trust required - and no one can stop it.
Chicken Little. Markets always climb a wall of worry. I love that everyone is calling for a crash, that’s how you know we are heading for a new leg up ! S&P 3500 by year end.
Yep and i will be spending and investing my money in the exact opposite of your wall of worry. How can you possibly say that in the face of what is in front of you. Please tell me you at least hedge a small portion of your money in the opposite direction.
AJP 70% stocks right now. Going to 100% on a retest of the 200 day. The market is consolidating just like 2015-2016. Back then it was Greece, Eurozone, and Brexit. None of it matters. Follow the fed. Low rates means that investors cannot get a return in the bank, on bonds or in cash... they have two choices, stocks and real assets (like gold and real estate). Market heading up and much higher as we have been consolidating for 18 months! Enjoy the ride while everyone one the sidelines, “worries”. Then this same people will get fomo and really send the market up.
I was looking for the last guy you showed in this video and i couldnt the video with him. Do you even have it on this channel? He was talking about the book about the great depression, what is its name? I would like to read it, I didnt really catch the name
Get Real Vision Premium for only $1 for 3 Months here: rvtv.io/YTPin No more waiting for the content to make it here weeks or even months after it was shot and no missing out on insights and information that move markets. Join today!
Its past 12 am, the party is over, but the markets don't want to go home. Nothing good happens after 12 am. There will be drunk volatility, fights, and people staggering around till the cops show up and every one is forced to leave. Then the hangover hits.
LMAO
Well said.
LOL Thats funny , give it a a few more weeks
this thing may be a hedge for you - www.coinonomy.com/zimnik
We're bringing all of these Recession Watch conversations to UA-cam later this week so get ready. This is an important moment for us all to explore together.
That's awesome! So besides aiming at reducing losses, do any videos discuss ways to profit from the downturn? I understand it's both difficult and risky (e.g. market timing, shortselling) and am wondering how a non-professional but well prepared investor can profit.
@@esuus IMHO, If you want to stop any risk of loss, buy, and hold gold.
If you want to gain, Buy and hold silver. I believe silver will out preform in both preservation, and gain. Only real problem would be safe personal storage. That's my 2 cents anyway.
@@esuus they call out a few straightforward ideas - buy gold, bitcoin, gdx. For the more sophisticated investor perhaps buying puts on the stock market could be a strategy?
@@esuus Yes. Stay tuned. We'll be releasing three videos on Wed and a new one almost every day the rest of the month. If you want to get them sooner you can go to www.realvision.com and subscribe today to unlock them. We don't normally put content like this up for free, but we think it's that important that we're doing it this time.
@@RealVisionFinance looking forward to this.
These videos are national treasures. Thanks Real Vision 👌
Real Vision is producing hands down the best content in this space, amazing work. Thank you!
Thank you ✌️
The Growth ups are in the room!!!
@@RealVisionFinance Love your work on this topic! It would be SO great for you to have Lynette Zang on your show!!!
@@RealVisionFinance Seriously amazing production quality and great content! The only thing I would suggest is including subtitles for interviewees with very heavy accents
Raoul Pal and Real Vision are at the very pinnacle of important content relating to current world financial markets. Pal is a virtuoso at aggregating the best financial minds and distilling their historical wisdom in beautifully-produced videos. I have the highest admiration for his superb productions. He is a great visionary and artist.
"gold is money, all the rest is credit" JP Morgan in 1912
Joe emerging from the cave .... population is growing and they are not making more land. Land is valuable, like gold. Yes, housing market fluctuates to some degree, and the you have taxes which sucks, but owning property, especially rental property is king. No matter what happens in the stock market, or with climate change, or even war, owning rental property is fairly safe investment for the long term. Because people need somewhere to live and population is exploding. Stock and paper cash is super risky, that I agree. One place I wouldn't buy land is in the Gulf of Mexico. Big oil wants it bad and they are behind the crazy making weather down there, driving property way down, driving folks out, so they can scoop it up cheap and put in biggest oil refinery in the world. No one talks about that, but watch and see.
Hi @@snowstormonsat Yes sure land is valuable, as long as it can produce something of value (eg farmland vs desert). Be careful with real estate though, wouldn't want to own any SF or NYC high end real estate right now, as they will tank first. Population is growing? Not so fast, birth rates in the US are dropping like a rock; www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/06/30/the-u-s-fertility-rate-just-hit-a-historic-low-why-some-demographers-are-freaking-out/
Immigration a solution? Don't expect too much from low IQ third worlders to contribute as they want free healthcare etc etc (sorry, just a fact, Honduras 81 anyone; brainstats.com/average-iq-by-country.html
Look, prices in the real estate market depend on the mortgage markets, as people will no longer be able to pay for that mortgage as they will lose their jobs during the coming depression, uh recession, housing prices will take a severe beating. Oh, did I mention broke millenials, broke boomers, broke everybody, who can not afford to pay you a decent return on your real estate investment? Maintenance, zoning laws, real estate taxes, regulations et etc Add it all up, real estate doesn't look so pretty.
Indestructible, divisable, portable, universally recognized as a store of wealth value, 5000 year history of continued wealth preservation (no wonder they don't want us to own gold) , and ...CB's accumulating gold like there is no tomorrow, do they know something we don't....
www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2018/09/11/central-banks-on-gold-buying-spree-over-dollar-worries/#108d8b8c1fc2
GOLD IS NOW $1500 AN OUNCE ???
I got in just before last Christmas for reasons I cannot tell you as it was just some sense in my mind things were not right. I hold tangible gold by the way.
Can't eat it, can't shelter under it, can wear it but it doesn't keep you warm, can't even burn it. As Spain discovered when it opened the silver mines in the new world, metals are just another medium for exchanging surplus production. No surplus, no value.
Interesting to hear the economists blaming the necessary remedial action for causing the problem. That's like saying my finances were fine until I paid the bill - if I hadn't paid it then I'd still have plenty of money.
I work for the railroad and I can attest to freight dramatically slowing down. I’m chasing work all over US currently. The old heads say when RR slows down recession is less than 6 months away.
My buddies in the car sales industry are saying the same thing
I work in the electronic components distribution industry and our IPE division of parts have been down as well. Our main company in the UK RS Components has seen the same decline in semiconductors.
Joel Hollingsworth I’m in auto sales as a manager, it’s a bloodbath and it should be booming in the summer. From my viewpoint we are already in a recession.
Trucking is booming to the point that they can't hire enough truckers.
Auto sales is a self-inflicted wound. Tesla challenged the industry to change and they've been dragging their feet. Tesla's Model 3 sales continue to boom. People like what they see from Tesla and would rather wait for the exact body style they want in an EV than commit to buying another obsolete gas guzzler.
@@dlwatib I can't see how. Transportation index is clearly in contraction. The last time transportation index was this low, the RR furloughed a lot of people. This happened in 2015.
Excellent summation Raoul. Thank you for your effort, it's much appreciated.
Fed will cut by 0.5 in Sept. and then they will keep cutting by 0.25 to postpone recession until Q4 2020. So first official negative GDP report gonna be released in Jan 2021. We still have time to buy more gold, silver, w/e
fireson23 I have plenty
Isn't this collapse more looking like October this year than 2020? Deutsche Bank just went below €6,00. this is a massive indicator.
I have been in a recession since the day I was born!
I started out with nothing and still have most of it.
@@dufus2273 lol most people have less than nothing
I've been traveling along east coast this summer with my young daughter and we've been camping, can't afford hotels this year but the coast is packed. Restaurants are packed. We tried to eat at a popular steak house in wells Maine on the coast and it had 1 1/2 hour wait so we left. They said it's like every night of the week. I did notice demographics...mostly older baby boomer population. Beaches are packed, highways bumper to bumper. We travel midweek, so I know weekends are even more crowded. I heard campgrounds fill up on weekends, so maybe many others are traveling on the cheap too, but there are plenty of those expensive campers and mobile homes there. Those things are pricey. I'm tent camping, really roughing it. Only eating out once a day. Keeping the cooler full and eating cheap. Went to block island last week and it was packed. That place is super pricey. There's still money out there but in fewer hands. Mostly baby boomer demographics. I live in western MA and there are no good jobs here. I have several degrees including a masters in education and i waitress. I can't even get a job interview. This summer, I said screw it, we're going to the beach as much as possible cause I'm tired of being stressed and depressed. Making the mist of my time with my young daughter, cause in the end folks time is most precious and how you spend it and who you spend it with. Money comes and money goes, and I've done everything possible to get ahead and I can't and I give up.
Knowing how to make get good opportunities at a recession is a great deal for investors. Great content!
@@ajpope2010 Do tell AJP
@@datamanx5768All PM physical and ETF for quick liquidity, Utilities, Real estate, multiple cryptos, lots of cash i can go on and on drrrrrr🤪
I would recommend doing the opposite of what people are talking about. Because that's CERTAINLY what they are doing themselves.
Good Job on this video. Concise review of key metrics, and explanation.
best finance channel thank you for sharing
Thanks for watching
Thank you Real Vision and Mr Rauol Pal. It's very useful video.
I have been preparing for recession two years after the last recession ended, which was very bad,but I do not have any debt !
Probably the most important video of the year maybe of this decade!! Take heed.
Thanks for such a great compliment
Indeed, of this millenium
I am sure everyone running in the Democrat primaries and the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party agrees with you, comrade! Recession before November 2020, dumpf Trumpf!
Decades of experience combined into 35 mins. Thank you!
Smartest forward looking economic presentation I've seen for years.
Many thanks for sharing Raoul.
Very well done. Thoroughly well considered. We would appreciate updates from you and this panel.
Great stuff!
Thank you for all the great content!!
Wonderful and wise. Thanks heaps!
Lowering rates in the last 6 months have not increased sales. Not a good sign.
running on fumes
@Loraine Jones regular people buy houses and cars.
@@SGspecial84 Well, figures are showing they don't anymore. It seems that they got wiser lately.
@@nachannachle2706 really? You pay the bank, or your landlord does. Take your pick.
@@SGspecial84 I get my tenants to pay the bank. :)
Very good work. Best breakdown yet I’ve found that corresponds with the series of events as I too expect them to play out. You just got a new subscriber
When it comes, and it will be soon; it will be worse than anything in the last fifty years.
Please don't get my hopes up. I want to see people eating their pets to survive type of bad. If it's anything like 2008, then that is like a summer vacation.
@Kaze Be careful what you wish for. I have a bad feeling your vision will be closer to reality then I care for. When it all implodes - its not just the 1% that will be affected. We are going to see rioting in the streets when the food stops and then a quick hop to Marshall law and no rights.
@@spacegamer85 Your scenario isn't even that bad. I want to see bodies liter the streets from the chaos. Then a new virus was unleashed by a CIA scientist that spread a pandemic that wipes out 95% of the world population, and only a few people survives who have been living under a cave. Then humanity restarts again.
@Kaze The CIA doesn't need to unleash a virus (that they won't be able to control despite statements to the contrary. Hopefully they are not that stupid to try). Instead they just need to shut down the electrical power grid. Those plugged into the grid (roughly 95% of Americans) will be dead within 6 months. Just in time delivery of food will run out in 3 days. Without electricity - water and gas pumps won't work so transportation grinds to a halt. So disease will spread due to lake of sanitation. Warehouses will be confiscated by the government. You will have to subsist on whatever provisions you have stored. Anyone stupid enough to go to a FEMA camp will never be seen again. It will make what is happening in Venezuela look like a walk in the park.
What a great video, lots of information, happy to have found this channel.
it's not only the best content on youtube related to economics, but the visual quality of the videos is hands down the best. Great work guys, keep it up.
It's fixed just like the last one., they pick a date and make it happen when it's best for them.
WHAT ABOUT SILVER IN THIS MARKET
Yes
The Reagan boom was a demand-driven boom, not supply driven. Supply siders are blind ideologues, and I have to take with a grain of salt anyone who cites them as his primary sources of economic insight. Economic historians have been debating the Smoot-Hawley tariffs (which were far higher than anything being proposed today) for almost 90 years now, and the consensus is that they had only a weak effect on the further course of the depression. Even the tariffs that already existed *before* the passage of Smoot-Hawley were higher than anything being proposed today. There is no reason to think they need be any more intrinsically destructive than the mutual sales taxes that states have levied on interstate internet sales in recent years, a tax hike and disincentive for interstate trade that I did not like, but around which no national controversy raged and which certainly has not sunk the domestic economy or killed interstate trade or internet sales. Currency wars are worth worrying about, but the anti-tariff hysteria that insists the optimum level of taxation cannot possibly be higher than zero, or that tariffs are uniquely and magically evil in a way that no other tax is, has reached such a point of silliness that it can only be described as a New Dealer superstition, reminiscent of the fear that your ship will fall off the edge of the earth if you sail too far beyond the pillars of Hercules.
Excellent content
Very informative. Thank you. Sokoloff is spot on!
Thank you for sharing your insights!
great vid
tbh, currently, one of the best finance&economic channel on youtube.
The search for truth is always a worthy & profitable exercise. I think you paint a very clear picture- recession is a spark that lights a much bigger fire on all fronts- social, political, & economic. Well done RVF.
The economy has been almost the exact image of 2007 and 2008. People did not learn anything before as they are going into debt to pay for houses that are hugely overpriced. As soon as this recession hits we will see peoples home values drop considerably and be worth so much less than the amount of the mortgage they signed, They will dump the property and we will see this cycle all over again!
Wow! Phenomenal piece of work
Thanks ✌️
Well you can listen to these folks, or the "carnival barkers" on CNBC. A fool and his money are soon parted.
excellent video, very well put together. Thank you
RealVision! I love you! Thanks for the excellent content! You give the edge even for the Average Joe and don't let them again fool by the system! Thank you!
We love you too Tibor
Tibor Z is this a gay thing?
fishtherapy100 did you get all that intelligence from your mothers side ?
Very impressive content 👍
Well done. 2000.00 gold for 2020.
Thank you Raoul for this tour the force.
I'm impressed and very grateful. Thank you.
Kiril Sokolof sounds so wise!
First time listener...... thanks for the work! not sure if i understand it all, but i do see in our retail {womans fashion } business a drop of about 30% in the last year.........here in Australia i find that the political class do more harm them good..in fact i feel as though we can plot the decline in consumer sentiment to a short lived and super conservative Prime Minister Mr. Tony Abbot , who ran the economy down so badly and so relentlessly during an election campaign that people were scared and shocked into not spending!!.......that fact that people believed him, surprises me more than anything else. People really are dumb....! again thanks for the content!!..
Raoul, Great breakdown of what might be coming and how it may unfold. Your Doom Loop and it's 3 phases appear to be well thought out, with each step being the logical outcome of the previous situation.
The only thing I don't see happening is the last step of phase 3 - "Pension Funds Default".
Not saying it couldn't occur, just can't see the gov't allowing the pension funds to actually default. A more likely scenario would be a "nationalization" of all pensions just before meltdown. The funny part is that while this is widely unpopular/unfathomable now. At the time of meltdown, these same people with openly advocate for it. Pensioners vote and for the political class that's all that matters.
Lastly, it won't be a political event because states, from both sides of the aisle, have pensions in deep do-do (Illinois,Kentucky,New Jersey,Conn,Penn). I believe the states would love to offload these responsibilities and the blame that could come further down the road.
It won't save us but it could kick the can further down the road.
What I like about Real Vision it's all about expanding your view and stretching your mind.
Great video thank you.
Recessions are good for the economy. If we didn’t have periods of recessions could you imagine paying $15 million for a 1 bedroom home or $750,000 for a car. The working people in a recession makes low wages, the same working people during an economic boom still make low wages. Recessions flush the junk out and put prices back in check.
Well said!
Very interesting chanel. Im jumping in. Thank you. Subscribed
I just did and I banged the bell
Raoul rocks! Great info. Thank you for sharing.
You rock, thanks for watching
I’m watching all sequence all over again. The first time it was all new, now it’s all logic. Thank you for the amazing content.
When the doom finally hits remember it will be nearly IMPOSSIBLE to find Gold or Silver offline or online when the stampede comes for it.
Thanks for an fantastic video :-) Best regards from Norway
Best finance channel on youtube
great job economic info gathering in real time
Thank you Raoul. Excellent content.
So the question is, is it worth being in mining stocks now before the big crash ? or will they also take a big hit when the crash comes ? also how much should you put into precious metals ? I'm 20% physical the rest of my assets are in cash ready to invest when the markets have crashed. Is that a dangerous strategy ?
fantastic
Thank you Raoul for getting the info out for those who will listen and act.
The thing about equities, is that their price can be based on fundamentals and cash flow (which is about a strong as ever), but their price can also be speculative. I mean they are like any asset in that sense. If a stock is making no money, it regularly still holds a floating market price. It does not go to zero. In fact, when pessimism is maximum/high, like now for example, that is when you typically see the lowest price. I have not known people to have been this pessimistic about the future in a long time. This tells me that the speculative price of assets (forget the cash flows for now), should be about as low as it has ever been given geo-poilical problems around the world are as bad as they have been. It is hard to imagine people being more pessimistic about global markets than now.
IN fact, all that seems to happen, is strong hands take more equity stake in global brands, whilst the weak hands give it away, then complain there is a wealth gap. Well if you are unable or unwilling to hold companies throgh volatility, then you are destined to be poor, since the only billionaires I know, own huge amounts of shares in global brands. They just keep buying those dips.
Great content 👍
Gold an silver will always win in the end.
Thanks you for an incredible piece of information
You know thing's are bad when the guys in the know have sold there own socks 🧦!
Jeff bezos, warren buffet
@Ronny The plural of thing is things. Plurals have no apostrophe.
@@Lawliet734 good to see grammar police is doing its job
Ronnysunshine relax people we know what he meant , don’t get your panties in a bind .
Thank you, great job!!! Greetings from Poland
Good content
Thank you
let's invent technologies that voids the use of people ... and they wonder why there is a recession coming
rolf johansen the logical progression of technology is the freeing of people from labor, in most cases, the problem is the slow transition
@@mattb6646 but the problem is, economy need people to spend money. If there is no job, there is no money and nothing to spend.
Just dream, a situation, where the technology is very efficient and the one who work in company are only the top management and robot engineer. Who will buy the products? No one buying means less revenue. Less revenue means less profit. And so on, and so on
The industrial revolution voided a lot of people. The tech boom voided a lot of people. Yet unemployment is low.
A job becoming obsolete has never predicted a recession. Why would it now?
Prima Yoga Adiasa that's why a resource based economy is inevitable
Interesting but I don't trust people that don't wear socks.
I very much appreciate the content on this channel! The discussions are for the most part well-reasoned and soberly presented, unlike so much of the financial “fear porn” out there. I do wonder, however, about the claim that Bitcoin is a “truth machine” or that it is digital gold (to the latter point, note that it has fallen 14% this week along with equities while gold and silver have risen).
Amazing, thanks so much for that great perfectly presented content !!
Does the idea that pensions are the last thing to fall in the next cycle seem backwards to anyone else? The interplay between super strained pensions aggressively pumping money into equities and high equity prices seems like a starting point to me of things unraveling, not an end result.
Brilliant. thank you.
all sounds about right!!
Recession will no doubt enrich Goldman Sachs, a firm i distrust more than any other.
This was an awesome comp
We 're already in a Recession and a Big Depression is coming! Two weeks ago, I had a Pilot of Shop Lights delivered and I was the first morning delivery and my lap of was the only freight on that 40 foot trailer!
The recent Consumer Price index did not show any signs of a recession. Just a slightly weakened economy. Not to mention the bond market inverse yield curve being a sign as well.
One of the best videos I have seen on the current situation.
The older gentleman at the end (Carol?) was spot on. If Bernie or Waren or one of the other dems become president, it will be very ugly very quick. He had so many good points I had to listen to what he said four times.
And thats part of the problem with wall st today. They seem capable of only functioning or being innovative within a low tax low regulated environmnent. Trumps deficits have all but guaranteed that tax raises will have to take place significantly over the next 8yrs. The sort of profiys or mkt highs we are witnessing nowadays are really abnormal. Never happened before in this countrys hisyory, to expect more of the same is jst ludicrous
Excellent video with lots of info. nuggets!
great insight, thanks!
Excellent. Thanks!
How can I do the "options on eurodollar futures" trade?
Yea, same question here
Excellent, just extremely informative.
Thanks for sharing, great video
One of your best videos ever
Considering how young and volatile BTC and other crypto are, won't you expect them to become strongly correlated with other risky assets like Equities in a negative downturn? It could be something like the market thinking.... equities are falling, I need to invest in something safe like T-Bills or just hold cash, to stomach the vol. Taking money out of equities and holding BTC in a recession would take balls, even if its the rational thing to do. I'd be really skeptical with a long crypto trade in an equity sell-off.
Hitesh Shewakramani good thing I have big balls 😎😎
Vote Democrats in office and you will get your Recession.
Wonderful video... These are exactly the topics we've been talking about with clients over the last 3 yrs... Although they sounds smarter than me 😉
Amazing Stuff here.
How do you build trust? Bitcoin - it's trustless!
@fireson23 you misunderstand. they said bitcoin requires no trust due to the decentralized nature. it is a network and exchange system based on math which has no oversight. the market decides the value, not a bank board. no trust required - and no one can stop it.
@fireson23 So you saying you don't trust gravity? Or heat? How about cold?
Clem Baker
Bitcoin is already illegal in India. Soon to be banned worldwide. Do your research.
Excellent video!! Thank you 🇨🇦
Very very informative.
Dear Raoul, how do you define recession?
johan jönsson go get your crayons out.
Chicken Little. Markets always climb a wall of worry. I love that everyone is calling for a crash, that’s how you know we are heading for a new leg up ! S&P 3500 by year end.
U might be right, we goin print dat money and pump that market
Yep and i will be spending and investing my money in the exact opposite of your wall of worry. How can you possibly say that in the face of what is in front of you. Please tell me you at least hedge a small portion of your money in the opposite direction.
AJP 70% stocks right now. Going to 100% on a retest of the 200 day. The market is consolidating just like 2015-2016. Back then it was Greece, Eurozone, and Brexit. None of it matters. Follow the fed. Low rates means that investors cannot get a return in the bank, on bonds or in cash... they have two choices, stocks and real assets (like gold and real estate). Market heading up and much higher as we have been consolidating for 18 months! Enjoy the ride while everyone one the sidelines, “worries”. Then this same people will get fomo and really send the market up.
DJ to 30k. :)
@@andrewconte6385 Spot on. Precisely what is currently happening in the backwaters market (aka cryptos).
Disconcerting trends indeed. Great video as usual.
I was looking for the last guy you showed in this video and i couldnt the video with him. Do you even have it on this channel? He was talking about the book about the great depression, what is its name? I would like to read it, I didnt really catch the name