Keep in mind, the title saying "Why Growth Trumps All" is ONLY applicable to smaller software companies. As I state in the video, this is not applicable in most other industries. I highlight why smaller software companies are different than most other industries on the video.
Hi Joseph, love the videos, I think that you have forgotten to change the link to the growth portfolio in the description. The one I am seeing looks like it is from months back
Hey Joseph you are a very smart young man your problem is you think and talk like you know a lot about investing and you don't the companies that you be buying our great companies but you be over paying for them a lot of investors are smart and they know you be buying overvalue companies and that's why they are criticizing you
@@dedricbutler8470 He dollar cost averages, which statistically outperforms those "people" that think they can time the market. There are an elite few that time it better than others, but Joseph has been consistent in his strategy. He isn't waiting around for "possible" dips, he is consistently buying. If the market crashes, so be it, it's just another great buying opportunity. If you think you're so much smarter than him, go make a youtube analyzing his choices and outperform his portfolio. Then we'll talk.
Completely agree with your call here, Joseph - maybe it's because I've also worked in software and seen first-hand how software companies scale with almost no costs. And yes, I'm also posting this comment before watching the vid, lol.
I also stay away from companies that massively dilute their shareholders. When you 5x shares outstanding, you reduce the value of every share of 80%. You just saw an 80% drop in intrinsic value per share. From a business owner perspective it is catastrophic loss of value and the company will have to 5x their profitability in order for it to be justified. I mean the company just got a lot of cash and firmed up their balance sheet, sure, but they have to use that cash very wisely. If it just goes to paying debt, paying management and running operations then it's just wasted capital. If you feel comfortable waiting years for the revenue picture to play out, that is up to you. I like to see cash flow, but that's just me.
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
a lot of people panic and hold on to money that should be working for them. From my own point of view, you need to invest smartly, if you need the good things of life. i made over $550k from my diversified portfolio strategy and i believe anyone can do it you have the right strategy. mutual funds takes long time but investing smartly is the key for short term.Analysts will talk, stocks will rise and fall but the market will always remain a cash den for people who know where to look. my one cents though. peace
Normal people buy in at high prices the stock market goes down,companies buy stocks back cheaper by introducing some"disaster" Stock rises after a disaster and the cycle repeats.. Having a good entry and exit strategy, will make succeed in the stock market.
I'm an amateur investor, i have 2 IRAs worth $253k, I do not like the cookie cutter responses from Fidelit, Vanguard Schwab, etc 7%-9% year on average, i would be glad if you could share how you achieved this.
@@leonahernandez3752 my portfolio is very much diversified so it's not like i have a particular fund i invest in. plus i don't do that myself. i was guided by an investment adviser, Tina Renee Anglin. my portfolio just mirrors what she trades and not just on some particular industries of my choosing. It doesn't matter if you copy Jeff Bezos portfolio pattern or dividend investing strategy, all these 'hocus pocus' strategies doesn't guarantee success,
The sooner you get in the better. Don't wait to buy stocks. Buy stocks and wait." - Warren Buffet. The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company of that advantage
@Mark Dobson yea,it's all programmatic, my money stays right in my account. that's the idea behind copy trading. my account just mirrors her trades in realtime
Dear Joseph, Based on the comments you made early on in your video, I urge you to have another look at PLTR. Using the same metrics you mentioned in this video (regarding growth, its story, capability for sustained hyper growth) and recent news (partnership with Data Robot, new contracts, increasing TAM), it would be of great value to at least give PLTR a chance within your portfolio and continue monitoring it closely. Awesome content as always!
JC is one of the smartest investors i know at this moment and he will be a millionaire in 4 years or less. I'm calling it right now. 5 million in 6 years, and 10 million in 10 years. he is one of the greatest minds of our time.
Different compared to what? A dotcom bubble crash that happened 21 years ago? Does that mean anytime someone invests in tech they'll always have to be reminded of the dotcom bubble ? Don't invest in the s&p 500 then either which is almost entirely weighted by tech. Hell ,just keep buying Johnson Johnsons and Unilever
I actually unfollowed each and every finance youtuber besides you, because most of the time they are just full of it. promoting the next penny stock or presenting a company which they googled for five minutes. Glad you are here, keep up the good work, man.
You have to think competition will eventually take a cut of their growth. What is stopping every large tech company from getting in on Snowflakes turf? Are they really providing a service that no other tech company can copy and paste?
The biggest risk is not so much slowing growth in itself but rather whether or not borrowing money will become more expensive for them. A company running at a continual loss does this by borrowing money. If the interest on that money rises, they will not be able to fulfill the obligations and go bankrupt. We have had *very* favorable monetary policy for these companies the past years but with inflation now rising, rates will need to go up whether or not the FED likes it or not. This will be a huge blow to these fast growers as their cheap source of capital will vanish. Rather then worry about growth, worry about the interest rate because if that rises, growth will slow drastically and you'll see a lot of floundering.
31:24 i have to say this since you do it twice in 30 seconds: you can't modify uniqueness. There can be no differing levels of uniqueness. Something is either unique or not.
I've been watching you for 1-2 years now, and have quietly but strongly disagreed with your arguements and stock picks until 8-10 months ago. Mostly your passive income portfolio, but here i feel like you have transitioned away from a very conservative approach and stock picks. Reflections like the one at around 11:30 really resonates with me, and has been a factor in you becoming more relatable to me. Great video!
Dis is one of my highest conviction stocks.. I hope people sell it.. I’ll just keep buying more and more!!! I liked your SNOW video.. I’ve heard nothing but bad things about the stock so I never looked into it. I like hearing in-depth DD’s on companies I don’t know anything about.
I like the fact that you recognize that you missed out on Tesla. As well as considering to invest in companies that don’t pay dividends. As you said, we all learn down the road, my path was similar to yours. Kudows to you
Can you please elaborate what characteristics are supposed to be "growing" to define a company as a "growth" one? Also what is the long term plan of "cashing out" aka "extracting own profits" from an asset in a form of "growth" company? To start getting dividends once the company finally stops growing and decides to pay back to the investors? Or by selling the company to a "larger fool" at a reasonable point in time? (if so, how are you determining this "reasonable" point?) How is this approach conceptually different from venture investing, btw?
>>> Can you please elaborate what characteristics are supposed to be "growing" Growth is usually revenue growth year over year, unless specifically stated otherwise. How is this approach conceptually different from venture investing, btw? It's not too much different. You're investing in a basket of riskier stocks at different weightings and hoping that a group of them do well and over-compensate for the ones that do poorly and you lose
Joseph, I like your videos, and I think they're well put together. Growth does not trump all. Getting great companies at a good price trumps all (value) I have my reservations about how these investments (bought now) will do over the long term. I think you've put together a very interesting portfolio, that is your story fund. There's multiple ways to skin a cat (make money) and I truly hope you do well. I can't wait to see what the future holds for the companies you chose to put in your portfolio.
Welcome back everyone. Hope you all have a great week this week! Big thanks to the growing number of patrons, if you're in a position to try it out you get access to a large community, exclusive episodes and portfolio tracking software: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson
(In continuation to my previous comment) Some conclusions: 1. Sustainability is the key in addition to growth 2. Proper diversification is also needed for longer, less volatile returns (simply look at any VC firms) 3. Valuation can still be done as a reference, but we shouldn't be superstitious about it
Hey Joseph, couple points: There is no such thing as "growth investment". All investments, if done properly, equates for growth either positive, none existent or negative. It seems in these high flying markets people say the words "growth", but actually mean overpaying for a story that they have little visibilty into. For example, you lean on 2029 targets and mention their TAM. These are cloudy forecasts and you have no way of navigating if a company is correct on a 8 year forward looking statement. If you do this investment type where you pay this much and repeat it 1000x times, you will see how little chance there is to come out on the other side with a good return, as you know, over a long time the market is a weighing machine. Looking forward to future videos and good luck.
Exactly. Most people fail to realize that in order to buy a company, two criteria have to be fulfilled: the company has to be attractive (nice growth, good management, wide moat, etc.) and the price also has to be attractive. You can love Tesla as a company and avoid the stock as it's overvalued. Will Tesla grow? Most likely yes. Does it warrant the 650 PE? Absolutely not.
@@TechnoBacon55 Actually Tesla is closer to 300+ PE now (depending on whether you use trailing, forward, or run rate), and this number is likely to reduce further..
After taking delivery of my Tesla Model 3 in 2019 I started buying stock in Tesla because I loved the product so much. I now have Solar Panels and Tesla Powerwalls. I’m still buying $TSLA because I think their energy side of their business will be huge.
Just to add that although you made 50% on apple which is good, there was a big bull run and other companies would have provided great returns. If every company grows I think you have to bench the return and not the fact that you did not loose money. I did not invest in apple but did invest in TSM and AMD and they grew over 90%. Not that I criticized investing on apple :) The one I feel is the most questionable is Peloton.
I was kinda laughing at that part. He bought apple presumably around the video date and since then the S&P is up 50%. Not really a "genius" pick when all the passive indexers enjoyed the same reward with much, much less risk.
I have a few software companies floating around my portfolio, but I prefer to be invested heavily on the back end of these things. Companies like TXN, NVDA, and REITs like DLR. All of the software is worthless without the infrastructure to support it no matter how good the margins are, but I'm a commodities guy at heart. That's how I got started with investing to begin with, so take that for what it's worth. SNOW seems alright though in my book. I won't be adding it as I already have quite a few individual positions to manage. Nice video, cheers.
Joseph, I love you but I can’t believe how you’re brushing off the comment that said they 5x’d the number of shares like it’s “just one metric”, the effect that that has on shareholders is massive, it means an 80% dilution of equity in the company, it very much is worth taking a closer look at it before investing. I recommend you watch the review that the guys over at Everything Money made on Meet Kevin’s Tesla valuation video to see what their reaction is to him acting like shares outstanding going up overtime doesn’t matter. This isn’t meant to be mean or anything, but really, this is a very important metric to consider.
I agree as well. If you went into a restaurant and you saw a bunch of roaches you would likely leave immediately without even bothering to try the dishes. Maybe the food is excellent and safe but I doubt you would want to take the risk of find out. Seeing this much dilution is pretty much like seeing roaches upon entering a restaurant. Do I really want to stick around to find out more?
@@alextian9185 Exactly. It just says that the company needs to sell out in order to stay alive. No project of theirs could be worth a 5x dilution. That would be like you selling 4/5 of your house in order to renovate the kitchen. Insane.
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
One more question, where do you see the growth numbers of organization? I mean their users are growing and customer is growing? i am new to investments and don't know where to check those crucial numbers
This is great content. Thanks Joseph. Here are some of my thoughts: - Prior to the internet bubble 1999-2000, public companies tend to be mature and profitable because high growth was typically unsustainable - Software revolution (Cloud business model, greater scalability & processing power, etc.) seems to have changed some of that. Now we have very large cap companies that are still unprofitable like Netflix, Tesla, Salesforce and so on, while they still can be fast growing - It's not that valuation doesn't matter. It's simply because traditional valuation model(especially DCF) is harder to do for companies without profit/cash flow. One has to predict the future cash flows which becomes largely a guessing work - Hyper-growth investing in early stage companies used to be in the realm of Angle/VC firms. In that world, valuation is still conducted, but is less a determine factor than other things like management teams, product-market fit, and you guessed it: growth rate (I'll put my conclusions in the next comment)
I think my issue with what you buy is personally I think most of it is very overvalued and likely to give negative returns at least in the short term(3-5 years). At the end of the day though, it's the performance that matters. I will see your portfolio and I'll see my portfolio (most of which you don't own) and we'll see who was right.
@@FFAs The "boring" and "outdated" way of finding companies trading at low values compared to cash flows and future earnings. The data is pretty clear over long periods(10-20 years) of what happens when you invest in overvalued companies at times like these. I think what Joseph is doing is misrepresenting what people are saying because his investments have done well in a market when it's impossible to lose money. The problem is the tables will turn as they always have and many people like Joseph(who I don't think is irrational but a little overzealous) will lose tons of money.
This is a growth portfolio, the value of these companies is based on expected and predicted growth. If you enjoy learning more about value investing and high cash flow investments I have another UA-cam channel that focuses solely on those, not speculative companies like SNOW. Here’s my latest video on that channel: ua-cam.com/video/qd4ELaxre1w/v-deo.html
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours I know I watch both of your channels. I like your content I just disagree with much of what you buy, even in your value portfolio. It will be interesting to see how your portfolio performs long term. I hope it works out for you.
For example let's look at Snowflake. The company has negative cash flows, they have less than $1bil in revenue and yet they are valued at over $70bil. The 100+% yoy growth is unsustainable and most certainly short term. A company like MMM for example has similar market cap($113bil). They have stable growing cash flows, strong brand and products, huge moat, stable earnings and can be intrinsically valued. When a company makes no money, you can't value it, you're just placing a bet and hope it pays off.
Do you think it would be more fair to benchmark the performance of the story fund against the Nasdaq Composite rather than the S&P500, since the story fund is nearly entirely tech stocks?
I only invest in growth companies, but I consider myself a value investor as well. I believe every investor is a value investor because whether you are buying a "growth" or "value" stock you are looking for something that will go up (meaning currently undervalued).
Sounds like we've been in a bull market for a while. Yes, you pay more for expected growth but with that comes additional risk. Just because a company grows fast doesn't mean that you can't overpay for it. At what price would SNOW be overvalued? Thanks for the content. Enjoy the videos even if I don't always agree.
SNOW is obviously overvalued now, but if you overpay for it is determined by what people in the future will be willing to pay for it. As Joseph did, just open a small position and keep cash at hand. With companies like this it‘s likely it‘ll drop down to 160$ in a few weeks and then you can DCA. The investment thesis for SNOW isn‘t this year or even next year. By the end of 2023 we might know if we overpayed today. But looking back and thinking man I should have purchased more at 200$+ in 2021 is as likely to happen
@@miomillionen3863 So you're willing to knowingly overpay at $250 because you believe that it will be worth substantially more in the future. Will you pay $1000/share? Will you pay $5000/share? My criticism is that there is no discussion about an upper price limit on what an investor should pay and still expect a profit. If a small town only has one restaurant, will you pay a billion dollars for that restaurant? You're guaranteed a lot of business so the price you pay shouldn't matter? Maybe my analogy doesn't make sense, but that's kinda how I'm thinking of it.
@@miller1240 I‘m honestly not too sure what your point is now, I feel like I‘d just repeat myself. You cannot know if the company is currently overvalued in the long run. It can stay overvalued for years and never ever dip below 250$ again and you can‘t know that so in such cases just dca or prepare to do so. Would you habe bought Amazon 10 years ago for like 200$ a share while they also had no profit at that time?
Gamestop is clearly overvalued but because the market can stay longer irrational than you can stay liquid and you can‘t know if or when the price will drop because they might never even though you say it‘s overvalued or hell all of wallstreet says it. Otherwise why not short the stock then? I deliberately did not buy Snowflake after IPO because I expected the stock to fall hard to like 100$ after all the outstandig shares were liquidated. Well that never happened so here I sit now buying it at 250$ (it‘s only like 2% my portfolio)
Joseph, excellent content as usual. Am considering jumping in on the Patreon but I am new to all this tech. Anyway, I have 9.5 years remaining until a planned retirement. I believe my Roth IRA is in good shape. I started a taxable account on M1 recently and would like to have a mix of growth and passive income now and transition to mostly passive income at retirement in 9.5 years. If I were to invest into both of your portfolios, would a 50/50 mix be ideal at this point? Or, should it be more aggressive? Says 75/25 skewed towards growth and then adjust going forward?
I run a similar portfolio as you, but much more concentrated, on a few of my largest convictions. I think it's better to compare yourself with the QQQ than the S&P500 to be perfectly intellectually honest, based on the kinds of companies you are invested in. After all, if you want to overweight growth and innovation etc. If you can't beat the QQQ, why bother DIY? Just invest in the QQQ. Peace.
The guy or gal who didn’t watch the video is absolutely correct in their approach of forming an opinion about a stock before potentially being influenced by someone else’s. You keep referring to the “story” or the “context” but that’s the story YOU are telling and the context YOU are placing it in. There’s a decent amount of short interest in that stock so there’s also a very different story to be told by someone else. The person in question seems to have a very rudimentary go - no go metric and that’s fine. In the UA-cam world of “next 10X stocks!!!!” or Chapter 972 of “why Tesla is still a buy!”videos the ability to just make a call and move on is to be admired! There’s very good research to suggest that the people who watch or consume “self help” content are just stuck in a loop and use it as just another way to procrastinate further so the ability to just make a call is incredibly valuable trait. Close minded? Erm….kind of. But you have to balance that with the perceived value of the mind and subject you are closed to. Keep up the great content but also keep in mind some subjects and opinions will be of no interest to some regardless of wether they tell you or not.
I was thinking of other stocks that fit the mold of what you look for in the story fund; after doing plenty of research I was thinking INTUIT fits the mold perfectly; I do think it is overpriced at the moment but maybe it would make for a very good video and if it corrects to a decent price you could add it, after a deep dive by yourself. It does pay a dividend so I’m not sure if you only wanted non-dividend paying companies (the dividend is also far to low to add to your dividend growth account) but I do think it will do well for the story funds in the next 5 years.
SnowFlake looks promising but its only a matter of time until the Oracles, SAPs, and Microsoft of the world create a similar product (if not already). The question is rather will they make a product in time to compete and will SF retain their market share once they do. Having worked in the industry for 7 years now, once a client has been wronged, they do not hesitate looking back at changing for the new and improved, especially when the TCO is less than that of a product they currently own and plan to upgrade. Tech companies have been robbing the corporate world for decades, and now it seems to get the product in the door these new SaaS companies are presenting one size fits all implementation & upgrade plans with a price that is fit for use by client and industry, creating a better and more transparent purchasing process. GL to those legacy providers who dont adopt. Ill be keeping my eye on the analyst reports -- Gartner, Forrester.
There is no contrast between growth and value: growth needs to be factored into the valuation. What you are saying is that growth needs to be given a bigger place in the value of the stock, because it is essential for a tech company if it wants to be around for years. Good: I agree. This does not justify paying any price for a growth stock, though, which seemed to be the point here. When do you stop buying? Would you buy Tesla now, at these valuations? It is growing rapidly.. Also, it seems weird to treat the share dilution as a minor detail if it is a 5/1 dilution. Also, using a "so far so good" argument is not very wise, since we have been in a bull market for a decade. Good luck with anything, I hope for you that I am wrong on Snowflake PS: I see you say "software companies", so Tesla might not be a good example. Still, the argument works
Joseph... I agreed with your Apple buy, Disney buy, Texas roadhouse buy etc... and I dont disagree exactly with your Snowflake buy but I did comment that 10% gross margins in 2030 seems too low. I love growth stocks, I haven't looked into Snowflake on my own yet but that comment you made of 10% gross margins in 2030 raised a huge red flag. $1b in free cashflow from $10b in revenue? That doesn't sound like enough imo... if it was $1b net profit 10% net margin. Ok.. thats a different story. So no... not operating margins today. Operating margins in 2030. If you misspoke then I can see where you are coming from but I do need to do my own due diligence...
Great vid. Btw, hearing you going through all those concepts makes me conclude that you're still missing out on TSLA, because the addressable market it's not even close to its final form (fully EV + solar powered). This company is a juggernaut in the making. There's still a giant potential there.
@@xdman20005 yep. I think you should watch the video on top of this page once more because you're AGAIN going with the same argument that Joseph tackles. One single data point based on traditional analysis with a 4th gen technology company that it's here to disrupt the way things work. Don't be silly. Net Income, Operating Income, Units Sold, Revenue, all is trending up YoY and even QoQ now. 3 new factories in 3 years. Product wise, there's not even competition for Tesla in the EV segment, no other company can catch them on technology, engineering, battery quality and production (once 4680 rolls out), charging network, manufacturing optimization, interconnected generate/storage/distribution grid "a la Apple". And I don't even accounting for FSD (which soon will be subscription based with constant software cash flow margins), maybe DOJO as a service later this decade, doing the same. As an extra: potentially fully autonomous cars that can overtake Uber, Lift and others. They're disrupting many multiple trillion-dollar industries at the same time, dude. Isn't that growth story? Well, okay then.
@@felipelibano8512 "hurr durr one single data point". If the data point is fatal, it's fatal. in regards to snow, 5x shares makes you so deluded as a shareholder that you have nothing left of value. You having a pipe dream of Tesla like the other fanatics doesn't twist real life: its 20x sales. It's overblown. We can talk in 5 years, it won't last. FSD is way off. Listen to last conference call, it's not coming soon. One supercomputer to defend the half trillion + market cap? Cmon. Storage and energy? Where are the margin? As of now theyre losing money on it. You drank the cool aid and are now a religious fanatic.
@@xdman20005 why are you being so rude? I'm being very respectful with the arguments. Easy, man. If you don't believe it, fair enough. I'm not all in TSLA, I just think it's a valuable company and I'll hold it. Stick to your overblown 20x sales. There's 98% of the ICE market available to be tackled, so let's see how it rolls. If you have another prediction for the vehicle market, we can talk in 5 years, no problem. ;)
Thank you for being genuine and clearly stating that value is derived from good investments which not everyone realizes is a good investment. Keep up the well thought out investing. Solid profits to you
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
I think you're oversimplifying things. Most investors are aware you can't use PE for high growth stocks. However, you also need to look into how a company is growing. If they have fast revenue growth while losses are also accelerating, they might be selling $1 for 80 cents, of course clients are going to take that. I'm not saying it's the case for SNOW (I haven't ever looked into it), but it's easy to do for companies that are paying their infrastructure to AWS, GCP, Azure.
I believe Disney underperformed the S&P500 in this period (the date is 2021-11-25; the last closing price is $151). I am not sure Disney can be considered a homerun. Disney also underperformed the market in the last 5 years. I also believe their current CEO and strategy is not aggressive enough to compete with Netflix on streaming. Just my 2c.
The importance of growth is undeniable, but I think it is also important to be discerning about what constitutes sustainable versus unsustainable growth? Which isn't really emphasized in this video. Great video nonetheless!
Hmm.. I think Jim Simons' Medallion fund, using quant mathematical formulas to achieve a 66% annual RoR since 1998, might take issue with Peter Lynch's Magellan Fund and its 29% annual RoR from 1977-1990. Don't get me wrong. Peter Lynch is my favorite investor of all time. I'm just pointing out that mathematical formula investing has been more successful than "artform" investing. I also agree that valuations IN TODAY'S MARKET have shifted, and I'm investing accordingly. But I'm also very aware that mean reversion is a thing, and at some point, valuation will matter again.
Have you considered doing the Sharpe Ratio when comparing your Story Fund with the S&P500? I feel on a risk-adjusted basis your Story Fund may underperform.
Dear Joseph, great content. Your analysis is thorough especially from a business perspective. However, it would be great if you could explain when discussing high growth stocks such as Snowflake how you respect the principle of ‘margin of safety’. I am convinced of the quality of the businesses you selected but not necessarily on the valuation. Could you make a video on strategies on how to build up your portfolio on great companies although they seam extremely highly valued. I am especially interested in strategies when you are unable to put additional cash in your portfolio going forward.
SNOW does not have a margin of safety, and I think it's going to be a very difficult task investing in smaller fast growing software companies if you're looking for margin of safety, none of these companies are "safe". When I invest in $VICI in the Passive Income account, that company I believe has a margin of safety. It's in real estate, they own a lot of assets that have high amounts of free cash flow. It is difficult to compete with, and if the price dropped the starting yield would go up and attract new investors. VICI has a margin of safety, SNOW does not. With my bigger allocation holdings like big tech, salesforce, adobe, etc, those companies have a margin of safety to some extent but they don't have as much chance for outperformance as Spotify, DoorDash, SNOW, SE LTD, etc. Margin of safety may come at the cost of opportunity. The best is if you can have a large margin of safety while having no loss of opportunity. Unfortunately with smaller software companies that's a difficult combo to find. If you're always focused on margin of safety you will likely not hit too many companies that turn into 10 baggers. Peter Lynch talks about his "biggest mistakes". He says that his biggest mistakes are not the companies he lost money on, they're the companies that he avoided that went up 20x in price.
Reasonable disagreement leave is no room for inefficiency, person that is out to explain himself will get to understand the subject even better after doing so win win
They are looking at the price backwards. Like of course nothing matter but growth. That was the motto for the past 30 years. The question is whether this is the new normal or whether we will go back to the mean.
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
Issuing 5x shares is an enormous red flag. I appreciate a company's story but it must have good fundamentals. If a company makes $100 million and it issues 5x shares, it has effectively diluted your investment by over 80%. It is a very big danger sign and would argue against it being a value investment.
First off, great video. I'm new here but I appreciate your artful way of blending numbers and forecasting growth. I loathe the two puffs of a cigar butt style of investing. Interesting excerpt about what value investing means from a recent interview: Invest like the best EP211 excerpt with Chamath Palihapitiya that I thought was an interesting perspective: "Let me answer this by asking you a question. You have two or three kids right, why are your kids valuable? Do they have value worth? How much value do they have? Infinite value there? Sure. You wouldn't say that they're valuable because they cost four dollars. Right. I think that the biggest fallacy of value investing is that people are not willing to revisit that word from first principles. Valuable means, a thing that is of great worth. It's worth a great deal of money. Those are two different definitions of the word. I tend to think about value that way as well, which is I think the biggest problem that people get wrong is they look at a cheapy or lots of free cash flow and they confuse it with that old Charlie Munger Buffett ism of a used cigar with two puffs left or used cigarette with two puffs. That's not what value is. I've never thought about it that way. I think that if you re underwrote what value investing is from first principles, the first thing you do is go to the Merriam Webster Dictionary and define the word value. And what it's not going to say is it cost four dollars. So that's what all these fucking people get wrong. So I just think theyre being a martyr for something that is going to turn out to be fundamentally stupid and easily fixable. This is the other problem, which is that one thing that I definitely have gotten lucky psychologically is, again, this is more it's a benefit in business, but it came from my personal life growing up as compartmentalizing and moving on quickly.I don't think that's a healthy psychological dynamic for personal relationships. But in business, it's great. If I make a mistake, I say, what did I do wrong? I look at it, I deal with it, and I move to the next thing. I think that if you're a value investor, what's wrong with saying, well, maybe the definition of value is something that I've gotten misconstrued. Maybe I listen too much to a style or a second or third hand way of defining value or an article or a book."
There is still a lot of growth ahead for tesla imo. Why not take a position now if youre overall opinion of Tesla has changed? I believe tesla will be looked at the same way we look at apple in 15 years. And like you said with apple about buying at all time highs, it just keeps making more all time highs with fundamental growth coming forward. Anyways great video. I remember hearing people say a stock was good/bad based solely on PE and as a new investor (4 months) thought how lazy it is to think you can pick a successful stock on a single metric and it coudnt possibly be that easy or everyone would be rich and that simply isnt true. I believe buffett mentioned that no single metric could ever consistently used to identify the best stocks because if such a metric were to exist, people would learn about it and with an extreme usage and trading volume based off the metric that the metric would quickly become skewed and no longer offer the reading and precision it once did.
Your videos are great! Was browsing the M1 expert pies today and noticed they now have an ark fund pie which bundles all 5 ark funds into one convenient etf. Thoughts on ark and why m1 would include this as an expert pie? Also, thoughts on the expert pies as a whole?
Using the professors quote to justify buying an overinflated hype stock is a mistake. Investing is a science AND an art. It is the meeting point of research and action.
I don't care about the earnings at a young growth company, and I usually disregard high P/E for established companies as long as the company is leading their sector. Take a dying company like IBM, they somehow polish their financials to show decent results every quarter, yet their revenue has halved in 10 years if you ignore Redhat revenue. Decent financials, awfull performance.
I like SNOW I am an engineer i think its a good product and plan to buy some maybe next year, I feel you may be a little early on it but time will tell! GL
Having watched most (not all) of Joseph’s videos, I would infer that he does probably invest like 5% in crypto. But crypto is not the focus of his channel at all.
Joseph, you are an excellent thinker, next level brotha! You articulate your position and thesis with precision. Thank you for all of your quality content!
You are absolutely right, I love when other people disagree with my investments, this is also why I am still bullish on BTC because it receives so much criticism and hate.
Not sure what to think man. I've been watching some of your older vids (thinking of taking a look at snowflake, crowdstriek etc now that they've fallen a ton and become more reasonably priced, still expensive, but not utterly ridiculous) and you've sold out of snowflake, crowdstrike etc. Doesn't really inspire much confidence in you being a long-term investor when you change your portfolio so much.
Totally agree, but if that is your belief that growth beats everything why not have your story fund put over your dividen portfolio, why not prioritize growth more ? Instead of having a heavier weighting toward dividends.
I think you are right when you say you make money when find undervalued stocks. However Snowflake is so highly valued, that you would need to hit your absolute bull case, they would need to stop issuing so many shares, and only then could you get a modest return. It’s all possible, but is it likely?
I have followed your advice and binge watched ALL your vids from start till current. I love your advice and Explanation of "why", "what", and "where" when you explain why you are picking certain stocks. You have really made stocks understandable, and dare to say "FUN"! Everything from seeking alpha and the discord chat. I greatly appreciate you , your channels and the discord community. I'm so glad I found you when I did. I wish I found you sooner, 1-2months after your first vid, but oh well im still glad I found your channel. Keep up the great vids! I could watch h you for hours cause I'm learning so much. I'm watching all your vids again as I wait till a new one drops 😆. Thanks again.
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
Hi Joseph, would Planet 13 fall into the descriptions of a "unique, non science" company. I'm on the fence with Planet 13 fundamentals, science vs the art characteristics) of the company? would you give our opinion please. PLNHF - Planet 13.
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
Yikes. Instead of responding to the legitimate criticisms against Snowflake in the comment section on your previous video (that even on 2029 metrics Snowflake is absurdly overvalued) you instead chose to pick out a few ignorant comments to make it look like the disagreement raised against your analysis was absurd. If that’s not attacking a straw man, I’m not sure what is. You then proceed to compare the criticisms to those raised against your Disney and Apple videos. I don’t recall Disney or Apple selling at 70x 2029 operating profit. That seems like a false equivalency. I have no problem with growth investing, but it seems to me like you’re going to need something a little more substantial than “it’s a great company with rapid growth” to justify the numbers.
I responded to the most upvoted and most engaged comments on the previous video. I also did respond directly to many comments in the previous video, and have repeatedly addressed these criticisms. Your assessment that snowflake is "abusrdely overvalued" based on their current growth trajectory is one that I adamantly disagree with. If they hit their growth targets (which are intentionally conservative), this company will be worth multiple what they are now. I can give you multiple examples to illustrate that like Shopify. A company that's worth 185 billion that revenue only 3.5 billion in the last twelve months. The prediction is that SNOW will revenue over 10 billion by the end of 2029. You don't have to agree with my thesis, I expect many wont, but I have gone out of my way to address many comments and questions about the thesis, I don't have time to address all, that's why I make videos sharing my thoughts. And of course I'm not comparing Disney to Snow - they are completely different companies with different risks and market size's. No need to take this out of context. The whole point of bringing up Disney, Apple, or JP Morgan was to illustrate that in almost everyone of my buys there's a lot of people that adamantly disagree. Time will tell - returns will speak for themselves. If I'm wrong in a few years you can say told ya so.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours My apologies for any mistaken assumptions I made, and my tone may have been harsher than I intended. For that I apologize as well. I recognize that you are one of the few investing you tubers who honestly addresses critics and doesn’t mindlessly shill their holdings and I appreciate your content I still tend to disagree with your thesis, being that Shopify’s growth trajectory is far clearer at the current moment than Snowflake’s will be in 2029. I find that harder to assess. I still also think Shopify’s valuation is questionable, but I may of course be proven wrong. If I am in both cases then you too can say “I told you so.” In any event I will keep following the progress of the Story Fund and will be rooting for you. I will admit that I think that you have begun yourself at a disadvantage, since I view the current environment for growth stocks especially difficult given statistical valuations and low interest rates. I can’t help but predict significantly lower future returns. That being said I hope you prove me wrong! I share a few common holdings as well.
@@terrapininvestments5878 I find it interesting to look at economic factors like interest rates but ultimately I don't make my decisions based on those. I think something people are forgetting is weighting of holdings. Currently out of the $95,000 portfolio value, $2,000 of that is SNOW. It's a very small holding due to the amount of risk and assumptions priced into the stock. SNOW is expected to have extremely good customer acquisition and high net revenue retention rates. If this is not accomplished the stock will fall significantly. If it is accomplished I think the stock will perform well. It all comes down to execution at this point. While SNOW makes up 2% of the portfolio value. Companies like GOOG, AMZN, FB, CRM, ADBE, AAPL, make up 5%+ each. They have a much higher allocation because of the stability and predictability of their business. If it's true that the entire sector of tech companies does poorly over the next 5-10 years, then this portfolio won't do well. That's okay with me because that's out of my control. If the entire tech sector does well, but I picked the wrong companies, I will feel more responsible for the underperformance.
Yeah but there were lots of comments talking about how SNOW is overvalued even as a growth stock, the multiple compression on a risk reward basis simply don’t make any sense, I’m a growth guy too but that multiple has simply 0 sense, high chances of trading flat
Keep in mind, the title saying "Why Growth Trumps All" is ONLY applicable to smaller software companies. As I state in the video, this is not applicable in most other industries. I highlight why smaller software companies are different than most other industries on the video.
Hi Joseph, love the videos, I think that you have forgotten to change the link to the growth portfolio in the description. The one I am seeing looks like it is from months back
Hey Joseph you are a very smart young man your problem is you think and talk like you know a lot about investing and you don't the companies that you be buying our great companies but you be over paying for them a lot of investors are smart and they know you be buying overvalue companies and that's why they are criticizing you
@@dedricbutler8470 He dollar cost averages, which statistically outperforms those "people" that think they can time the market. There are an elite few that time it better than others, but Joseph has been consistent in his strategy. He isn't waiting around for "possible" dips, he is consistently buying. If the market crashes, so be it, it's just another great buying opportunity. If you think you're so much smarter than him, go make a youtube analyzing his choices and outperform his portfolio. Then we'll talk.
Bro. I learned nothing from this video. Just gloating at how awesome you are at stonk picking. We already know. ;)
@@snagboi if you have learned nothing from this video it just means you are destined to be poor. No problem.
Watching in May 2024; timeless video.
My god, finally you understood the Tesla phenomenon…. That takes big balls to admit a misstake like that.
Big props to you Joe 👍
@M F That's why you should catch them deals early..
Completely agree with your call here, Joseph - maybe it's because I've also worked in software and seen first-hand how software companies scale with almost no costs. And yes, I'm also posting this comment before watching the vid, lol.
It would be great to see a video of you coming back on your mistakes and what you have learned from those
I actually already have an entire video script for that - just need to record it!
Looking forward to it!
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours bring it on
I also stay away from companies that massively dilute their shareholders. When you 5x shares outstanding, you reduce the value of every share of 80%. You just saw an 80% drop in intrinsic value per share. From a business owner perspective it is catastrophic loss of value and the company will have to 5x their profitability in order for it to be justified. I mean the company just got a lot of cash and firmed up their balance sheet, sure, but they have to use that cash very wisely. If it just goes to paying debt, paying management and running operations then it's just wasted capital. If you feel comfortable waiting years for the revenue picture to play out, that is up to you. I like to see cash flow, but that's just me.
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
There are always going to be haters and often enough they become losers. Keep up the great work Joseph.
a lot of people panic and hold on to money that should be working for them. From my own point of view, you need to invest smartly, if you need the good things of life. i made over $550k from
my diversified portfolio strategy and i believe anyone can do it you have the right strategy. mutual funds takes long time but investing smartly is the key for short term.Analysts will talk, stocks will rise and fall but the market will always remain a cash den for people who know where to look. my one cents though. peace
Normal people buy in at high prices the stock
market goes down,companies buy stocks back cheaper by introducing some"disaster" Stock rises after a disaster and the cycle repeats.. Having a good entry and exit strategy, will make succeed in the stock market.
I'm an amateur investor, i have 2 IRAs worth $253k, I do not like the cookie cutter responses from Fidelit, Vanguard
Schwab, etc 7%-9% year on average, i would be glad if you could share how you achieved this.
@@leonahernandez3752 my portfolio is very much diversified so it's not like i have a particular fund i invest in. plus i don't do that myself.
i was guided by an investment adviser, Tina Renee Anglin. my portfolio just mirrors what she trades and not just on some particular industries of my choosing. It doesn't
matter if you copy Jeff Bezos portfolio pattern or dividend investing strategy, all these 'hocus pocus' strategies doesn't guarantee success,
The sooner you get in the better. Don't wait to buy stocks. Buy stocks and wait." - Warren Buffet. The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company of that advantage
@Mark Dobson yea,it's all programmatic, my money stays right in my account. that's the idea behind copy trading. my account just mirrors her trades in realtime
Dear Joseph,
Based on the comments you made early on in your video, I urge you to have another look at PLTR.
Using the same metrics you mentioned in this video (regarding growth, its story, capability for sustained hyper growth) and recent news (partnership with Data Robot, new contracts, increasing TAM), it would be of great value to at least give PLTR a chance within your portfolio and continue monitoring it closely.
Awesome content as always!
W•H•A•T•S•A•A•P
+•1•9•5•1•3•8•6•0•9•6•5
o'n""h'o'w""t'o""e'a'r'n""m'o'r'e""p'r'o'f'i't""i'n~C~R~Y~P~T~O
@@user-kt5we9go6l scammer
Very happy I found this channel
JC is one of the smartest investors i know at this moment and he will be a millionaire in 4 years or less. I'm calling it right now. 5 million in 6 years, and 10 million in 10 years. he is one of the greatest minds of our time.
"This time is different" LOL
Different compared to what? A dotcom bubble crash that happened 21 years ago? Does that mean anytime someone invests in tech they'll always have to be reminded of the dotcom bubble ? Don't invest in the s&p 500 then either which is almost entirely weighted by tech. Hell ,just keep buying Johnson Johnsons and Unilever
I actually unfollowed each and every finance youtuber besides you, because most of the time they are just full of it. promoting the next penny stock or presenting a company which they googled for five minutes. Glad you are here, keep up the good work, man.
I also did that. Its like all pivoted to crypto
I appreciate the kind words!
I agree
Check out Justin Oh, he seems like the only other finance youtuber besides Joseph that does his homework and gives valuable insight on investing.
I did the same thing lol
So, how do you screen to find these companies that you want to research and possibly invest in them?
You have to think competition will eventually take a cut of their growth. What is stopping every large tech company from getting in on Snowflakes turf? Are they really providing a service that no other tech company can copy and paste?
The biggest risk is not so much slowing growth in itself but rather whether or not borrowing money will become more expensive for them. A company running at a continual loss does this by borrowing money.
If the interest on that money rises, they will not be able to fulfill the obligations and go bankrupt.
We have had *very* favorable monetary policy for these companies the past years but with inflation now rising, rates will need to go up whether or not the FED likes it or not.
This will be a huge blow to these fast growers as their cheap source of capital will vanish.
Rather then worry about growth, worry about the interest rate because if that rises, growth will slow drastically and you'll see a lot of floundering.
Hello Joseph, this is a friendly reminder that the link to the dividend portfolio is not updated on this channel. Love the content.
31:24 i have to say this since you do it twice in 30 seconds: you can't modify uniqueness. There can be no differing levels of uniqueness. Something is either unique or not.
I think the problem is the valuation 100x sales at there growth rate is pricing in 5 years of growth
Says the man with the tesla profile pic. Teslas valuation is just as bad lol.
@@SherlockMahomes99 Just a fan of there products mission and I’ve owned the stock in the past sold out completely after the s&p500 inclusion pump
@@SherlockMahomes99 tesla is worse.
@@Eric00700 Hey, good on ya. They are a very cool company and you acknowledge the stocks detachment from underlying equity. I respect that.
I've been watching you for 1-2 years now, and have quietly but strongly disagreed with your arguements and stock picks until 8-10 months ago. Mostly your passive income portfolio, but here i feel like you have transitioned away from a very conservative approach and stock picks. Reflections like the one at around 11:30 really resonates with me, and has been a factor in you becoming more relatable to me. Great video!
Thanks for watching...
For more New Tutorial👇...
W,...H...A..."T"...S"...A...,P..."P..."
+1"...9...5...1 ...3"...8...6..."0...9...6..5".
Dis is one of my highest conviction stocks.. I hope people sell it.. I’ll just keep buying more and more!!! I liked your SNOW video.. I’ve heard nothing but bad things about the stock so I never looked into it. I like hearing in-depth DD’s on companies I don’t know anything about.
I like the fact that you recognize that you missed out on Tesla. As well as considering to invest in companies that don’t pay dividends. As you said, we all learn down the road, my path was similar to yours. Kudows to you
Can you please elaborate what characteristics are supposed to be "growing" to define a company as a "growth" one?
Also what is the long term plan of "cashing out" aka "extracting own profits" from an asset in a form of "growth" company?
To start getting dividends once the company finally stops growing and decides to pay back to the investors?
Or by selling the company to a "larger fool" at a reasonable point in time? (if so, how are you determining this "reasonable" point?)
How is this approach conceptually different from venture investing, btw?
Think you hit the nail on the head here
>>> Can you please elaborate what characteristics are supposed to be "growing"
Growth is usually revenue growth year over year, unless specifically stated otherwise.
How is this approach conceptually different from venture investing, btw?
It's not too much different. You're investing in a basket of riskier stocks at different weightings and hoping that a group of them do well and over-compensate for the ones that do poorly and you lose
Joseph, I like your videos, and I think they're well put together.
Growth does not trump all. Getting great companies at a good price trumps all (value)
I have my reservations about how these investments (bought now) will do over the long term.
I think you've put together a very interesting portfolio, that is your story fund. There's multiple ways to skin a cat (make money) and I truly hope you do well. I can't wait to see what the future holds for the companies you chose to put in your portfolio.
Thanks for watching...
For more New Tutorial👇...
W,...H...A..."T"...S"...A...,P..."P..."
+1"...9...5...1 ...3"...8...6..."0...9...6..5".
This was so eye-opening and educational
W•H•A•T•S•A•A•P
+•1•9•5•1•3•8•6•0•9•6•5
o'n""h'o'w""t'o""e'a'r'n""m'o'r'e""p'r'o'f'i't""i'n~C~R~Y~P~T~O
Welcome back everyone. Hope you all have a great week this week!
Big thanks to the growing number of patrons, if you're in a position to try it out you get access to a large community, exclusive episodes and portfolio tracking software: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson
Seen every video since your first year. Keep up the great work
High quality content, as usually. Thanks!
A masterclass not behind a paywall?
Here's a like, you kind sir!
FOR~ MORE~ PROFIT~ AND INVESTMENT~ ON~ BITCOIN
AND~ OTHERS ~CRYPTOCURRENCIES
+/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/0/9/6/5
W/H/A/T/S/A/P/P
(In continuation to my previous comment) Some conclusions:
1. Sustainability is the key in addition to growth
2. Proper diversification is also needed for longer, less volatile returns (simply look at any VC firms)
3. Valuation can still be done as a reference, but we shouldn't be superstitious about it
Well said... and good luck.
Hey Joseph, couple points: There is no such thing as "growth investment". All investments, if done properly, equates for growth either positive, none existent or negative. It seems in these high flying markets people say the words "growth", but actually mean overpaying for a story that they have little visibilty into. For example, you lean on 2029 targets and mention their TAM. These are cloudy forecasts and you have no way of navigating if a company is correct on a 8 year forward looking statement. If you do this investment type where you pay this much and repeat it 1000x times, you will see how little chance there is to come out on the other side with a good return, as you know, over a long time the market is a weighing machine. Looking forward to future videos and good luck.
Exactly. Most people fail to realize that in order to buy a company, two criteria have to be fulfilled: the company has to be attractive (nice growth, good management, wide moat, etc.) and the price also has to be attractive.
You can love Tesla as a company and avoid the stock as it's overvalued. Will Tesla grow? Most likely yes. Does it warrant the 650 PE? Absolutely not.
@@TechnoBacon55 Actually Tesla is closer to 300+ PE now (depending on whether you use trailing, forward, or run rate), and this number is likely to reduce further..
After taking delivery of my Tesla Model 3 in 2019 I started buying stock in Tesla because I loved the product so much. I now have Solar Panels and Tesla Powerwalls. I’m still buying $TSLA because I think their energy side of their business will be huge.
Just to add that although you made 50% on apple which is good, there was a big bull run and other companies would have provided great returns. If every company grows I think you have to bench the return and not the fact that you did not loose money. I did not invest in apple but did invest in TSM and AMD and they grew over 90%.
Not that I criticized investing on apple :)
The one I feel is the most questionable is Peloton.
I was kinda laughing at that part. He bought apple presumably around the video date and since then the S&P is up 50%. Not really a "genius" pick when all the passive indexers enjoyed the same reward with much, much less risk.
@@user-kt5we9go6l scammer
Go back and watch the episode were he bought it makes more sense why then
@@Aaron-wq3jz you assume I didnt ?.. still disagree
@@Aaron-wq3jz Peloton is indeed questionable.
I have a few software companies floating around my portfolio, but I prefer to be invested heavily on the back end of these things. Companies like TXN, NVDA, and REITs like DLR. All of the software is worthless without the infrastructure to support it no matter how good the margins are, but I'm a commodities guy at heart. That's how I got started with investing to begin with, so take that for what it's worth.
SNOW seems alright though in my book. I won't be adding it as I already have quite a few individual positions to manage.
Nice video, cheers.
Thanks for watching...
For more New Tutorial👇...
W,...H...A..."T"...S"...A...,P..."P..."
+1"...9...5...1 ...3"...8...6..."0...9...6..5".
Thanks JC, very informative! Is there a reason you don’t have Zoom in your story fund portfolio? Do you think their growth will dwindle significantly?
Joseph, I love you but I can’t believe how you’re brushing off the comment that said they 5x’d the number of shares like it’s “just one metric”, the effect that that has on shareholders is massive, it means an 80% dilution of equity in the company, it very much is worth taking a closer look at it before investing. I recommend you watch the review that the guys over at Everything Money made on Meet Kevin’s Tesla valuation video to see what their reaction is to him acting like shares outstanding going up overtime doesn’t matter.
This isn’t meant to be mean or anything, but really, this is a very important metric to consider.
Yeah, I agree. 5x increase of shares is not just "they issued shares".
Yeah it's insane that he just ignores an 80% drop in shareholder value. This company is trading at like 100x sales and are not near profitable.
I agree as well. If you went into a restaurant and you saw a bunch of roaches you would likely leave immediately without even bothering to try the dishes. Maybe the food is excellent and safe but I doubt you would want to take the risk of find out.
Seeing this much dilution is pretty much like seeing roaches upon entering a restaurant. Do I really want to stick around to find out more?
@@alextian9185 Exactly. It just says that the company needs to sell out in order to stay alive. No project of theirs could be worth a 5x dilution. That would be like you selling 4/5 of your house in order to renovate the kitchen. Insane.
Keep up the content. You are the only person I watch when it comes to the market. These other UA-camrs are just speaking nonsense for money.
FOR~ MORE~ PROFIT~ AND INVESTMENT~ ON~ BITCOIN
AND~ OTHERS ~CRYPTOCURRENCIES
+/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/0/9/6/5
W/H/A/T/S/A/P/P
@@user-kt5we9go6l Go away scammer.
This video is food for thought...thanks for posting it.
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
One more question, where do you see the growth numbers of organization? I mean their users are growing and customer is growing? i am new to investments and don't know where to check those crucial numbers
This is great content. Thanks Joseph. Here are some of my thoughts:
- Prior to the internet bubble 1999-2000, public companies tend to be mature and profitable because high growth was typically unsustainable
- Software revolution (Cloud business model, greater scalability & processing power, etc.) seems to have changed some of that. Now we have very large cap companies that are still unprofitable like Netflix, Tesla, Salesforce and so on, while they still can be fast growing
- It's not that valuation doesn't matter. It's simply because traditional valuation model(especially DCF) is harder to do for companies without profit/cash flow. One has to predict the future cash flows which becomes largely a guessing work
- Hyper-growth investing in early stage companies used to be in the realm of Angle/VC firms. In that world, valuation is still conducted, but is less a determine factor than other things like management teams, product-market fit, and you guessed it: growth rate
(I'll put my conclusions in the next comment)
I think my issue with what you buy is personally I think most of it is very overvalued and likely to give negative returns at least in the short term(3-5 years). At the end of the day though, it's the performance that matters. I will see your portfolio and I'll see my portfolio (most of which you don't own) and we'll see who was right.
Out of curiosity, how do you invest?
@@FFAs The "boring" and "outdated" way of finding companies trading at low values compared to cash flows and future earnings. The data is pretty clear over long periods(10-20 years) of what happens when you invest in overvalued companies at times like these. I think what Joseph is doing is misrepresenting what people are saying because his investments have done well in a market when it's impossible to lose money. The problem is the tables will turn as they always have and many people like Joseph(who I don't think is irrational but a little overzealous) will lose tons of money.
This is a growth portfolio, the value of these companies is based on expected and predicted growth.
If you enjoy learning more about value investing and high cash flow investments I have another UA-cam channel that focuses solely on those, not speculative companies like SNOW. Here’s my latest video on that channel: ua-cam.com/video/qd4ELaxre1w/v-deo.html
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours I know I watch both of your channels. I like your content I just disagree with much of what you buy, even in your value portfolio. It will be interesting to see how your portfolio performs long term. I hope it works out for you.
For example let's look at Snowflake. The company has negative cash flows, they have less than $1bil in revenue and yet they are valued at over $70bil. The 100+% yoy growth is unsustainable and most certainly short term. A company like MMM for example has similar market cap($113bil). They have stable growing cash flows, strong brand and products, huge moat, stable earnings and can be intrinsically valued. When a company makes no money, you can't value it, you're just placing a bet and hope it pays off.
Do you think it would be more fair to benchmark the performance of the story fund against the Nasdaq Composite rather than the S&P500, since the story fund is nearly entirely tech stocks?
I only invest in growth companies, but I consider myself a value investor as well. I believe every investor is a value investor because whether you are buying a "growth" or "value" stock you are looking for something that will go up (meaning currently undervalued).
Thanks for watching...
For more New Tutorial👇...
W,...H...A..."T"...S"...A...,P..."P..."
+1"...9...5...1 ...3"...8...6..."0...9...6..5".
Sounds like we've been in a bull market for a while. Yes, you pay more for expected growth but with that comes additional risk. Just because a company grows fast doesn't mean that you can't overpay for it. At what price would SNOW be overvalued?
Thanks for the content. Enjoy the videos even if I don't always agree.
Good point. Would 500 price / sales be reasonable?
SNOW is obviously overvalued now, but if you overpay for it is determined by what people in the future will be willing to pay for it. As Joseph did, just open a small position and keep cash at hand. With companies like this it‘s likely it‘ll drop down to 160$ in a few weeks and then you can DCA. The investment thesis for SNOW isn‘t this year or even next year. By the end of 2023 we might know if we overpayed today. But looking back and thinking man I should have purchased more at 200$+ in 2021 is as likely to happen
@@miomillionen3863 So you're willing to knowingly overpay at $250 because you believe that it will be worth substantially more in the future. Will you pay $1000/share? Will you pay $5000/share? My criticism is that there is no discussion about an upper price limit on what an investor should pay and still expect a profit. If a small town only has one restaurant, will you pay a billion dollars for that restaurant? You're guaranteed a lot of business so the price you pay shouldn't matter? Maybe my analogy doesn't make sense, but that's kinda how I'm thinking of it.
@@miller1240 I‘m honestly not too sure what your point is now, I feel like I‘d just repeat myself. You cannot know if the company is currently overvalued in the long run. It can stay overvalued for years and never ever dip below 250$ again and you can‘t know that so in such cases just dca or prepare to do so. Would you habe bought Amazon 10 years ago for like 200$ a share while they also had no profit at that time?
Gamestop is clearly overvalued but because the market can stay longer irrational than you can stay liquid and you can‘t know if or when the price will drop because they might never even though you say it‘s overvalued or hell all of wallstreet says it. Otherwise why not short the stock then?
I deliberately did not buy Snowflake after IPO because I expected the stock to fall hard to like 100$ after all the outstandig shares were liquidated. Well that never happened so here I sit now buying it at 250$ (it‘s only like 2% my portfolio)
Joseph, excellent content as usual. Am considering jumping in on the Patreon but I am new to all this tech. Anyway, I have 9.5 years remaining until a planned retirement. I believe my Roth IRA is in good shape. I started a taxable account on M1 recently and would like to have a mix of growth and passive income now and transition to mostly passive income at retirement in 9.5 years. If I were to invest into both of your portfolios, would a 50/50 mix be ideal at this point? Or, should it be more aggressive? Says 75/25 skewed towards growth and then adjust going forward?
T:h:a:n:k:: f:o:r:: w:a:t:c:h:i:n:g: a:n:d:: f:e:e:d:b:a:c:k:: w:r:i:t:e:: m:e:: n:o:w::f:o:r: m:o:r:e:: i:n:f:o:r:m:a:t:i:o:n::
W::h::a::t::s::a::p::p:
+1::9::5::4::5::0::7::2::8::3::3:
I run a similar portfolio as you, but much more concentrated, on a few of my largest convictions. I think it's better to compare yourself with the QQQ than the S&P500 to be perfectly intellectually honest, based on the kinds of companies you are invested in. After all, if you want to overweight growth and innovation etc. If you can't beat the QQQ, why bother DIY? Just invest in the QQQ.
Peace.
The guy or gal who didn’t watch the video is absolutely correct in their approach of forming an opinion about a stock before potentially being influenced by someone else’s. You keep referring to the “story” or the “context” but that’s the story YOU are telling and the context YOU are placing it in. There’s a decent amount of short interest in that stock so there’s also a very different story to be told by someone else. The person in question seems to have a very rudimentary go - no go metric and that’s fine. In the UA-cam world of “next 10X stocks!!!!” or Chapter 972 of “why Tesla is still a buy!”videos the ability to just make a call and move on is to be admired!
There’s very good research to suggest that the people who watch or consume “self help” content are just stuck in a loop and use it as just another way to procrastinate further so the ability to just make a call is incredibly valuable trait.
Close minded? Erm….kind of. But you have to balance that with the perceived value of the mind and subject you are closed to.
Keep up the great content but also keep in mind some subjects and opinions will be of no interest to some regardless of wether they tell you or not.
Literal gold of episode
F•O•R•• M•O•R•E G•U•I•D•A•N•C•E•
W•H•A•T•S•A•P•P-
+•1•9•5•1.3•8•6•0•9•6•5•
I•N•V•E•S•T>
I was thinking of other stocks that fit the mold of what you look for in the story fund; after doing plenty of research I was thinking INTUIT fits the mold perfectly; I do think it is overpriced at the moment but maybe it would make for a very good video and if it corrects to a decent price you could add it, after a deep dive by yourself. It does pay a dividend so I’m not sure if you only wanted non-dividend paying companies (the dividend is also far to low to add to your dividend growth account) but I do think it will do well for the story funds in the next 5 years.
T𝚑𝚊𝚗𝚔𝚜 𝚏𝚘𝚛 𝚢𝚘𝚞𝚛 𝚏𝚎𝚎𝚍𝚋𝚊𝚌𝚔, 𝚒 𝚑𝚊𝚟𝚎 𝚜𝚘𝚖𝚎𝚝𝚑𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚕 𝚋𝚒𝚐 𝚒 𝚠𝚘𝚞𝚕𝚍 𝚕𝚘𝚟𝚎 𝚝𝚘 𝚒𝚗𝚝𝚛𝚘𝚍𝚞𝚌𝚎 𝚢𝚘𝚞 𝚝𝚘.
TᏋXT MᏋ
+ 𝟙 𝟠 𝟘 𝟛 𝟠 𝟠 𝟙 𝟡 𝟛 𝟛 𝟙
SnowFlake looks promising but its only a matter of time until the Oracles, SAPs, and Microsoft of the world create a similar product (if not already). The question is rather will they make a product in time to compete and will SF retain their market share once they do. Having worked in the industry for 7 years now, once a client has been wronged, they do not hesitate looking back at changing for the new and improved, especially when the TCO is less than that of a product they currently own and plan to upgrade. Tech companies have been robbing the corporate world for decades, and now it seems to get the product in the door these new SaaS companies are presenting one size fits all implementation & upgrade plans with a price that is fit for use by client and industry, creating a better and more transparent purchasing process. GL to those legacy providers who dont adopt. Ill be keeping my eye on the analyst reports -- Gartner, Forrester.
There is no contrast between growth and value: growth needs to be factored into the valuation. What you are saying is that growth needs to be given a bigger place in the value of the stock, because it is essential for a tech company if it wants to be around for years. Good: I agree. This does not justify paying any price for a growth stock, though, which seemed to be the point here. When do you stop buying? Would you buy Tesla now, at these valuations? It is growing rapidly.. Also, it seems weird to treat the share dilution as a minor detail if it is a 5/1 dilution. Also, using a "so far so good" argument is not very wise, since we have been in a bull market for a decade.
Good luck with anything, I hope for you that I am wrong on Snowflake
PS: I see you say "software companies", so Tesla might not be a good example. Still, the argument works
Joseph... I agreed with your Apple buy, Disney buy, Texas roadhouse buy etc... and I dont disagree exactly with your Snowflake buy but I did comment that 10% gross margins in 2030 seems too low. I love growth stocks, I haven't looked into Snowflake on my own yet but that comment you made of 10% gross margins in 2030 raised a huge red flag. $1b in free cashflow from $10b in revenue? That doesn't sound like enough imo... if it was $1b net profit 10% net margin. Ok.. thats a different story. So no... not operating margins today. Operating margins in 2030. If you misspoke then I can see where you are coming from but I do need to do my own due diligence...
Great vid. Btw, hearing you going through all those concepts makes me conclude that you're still missing out on TSLA, because the addressable market it's not even close to its final form (fully EV + solar powered). This company is a juggernaut in the making. There's still a giant potential there.
@M F Dollar cost average it. Time in the market beats timing the market.
20x sales for a manufacturing business with jack shit margin " There's still a giant potential there. " cmon...
@@xdman20005 yep. I think you should watch the video on top of this page once more because you're AGAIN going with the same argument that Joseph tackles. One single data point based on traditional analysis with a 4th gen technology company that it's here to disrupt the way things work. Don't be silly. Net Income, Operating Income, Units Sold, Revenue, all is trending up YoY and even QoQ now. 3 new factories in 3 years. Product wise, there's not even competition for Tesla in the EV segment, no other company can catch them on technology, engineering, battery quality and production (once 4680 rolls out), charging network, manufacturing optimization, interconnected generate/storage/distribution grid "a la Apple". And I don't even accounting for FSD (which soon will be subscription based with constant software cash flow margins), maybe DOJO as a service later this decade, doing the same. As an extra: potentially fully autonomous cars that can overtake Uber, Lift and others. They're disrupting many multiple trillion-dollar industries at the same time, dude. Isn't that growth story? Well, okay then.
@@felipelibano8512 "hurr durr one single data point". If the data point is fatal, it's fatal. in regards to snow, 5x shares makes you so deluded as a shareholder that you have nothing left of value. You having a pipe dream of Tesla like the other fanatics doesn't twist real life: its 20x sales. It's overblown. We can talk in 5 years, it won't last. FSD is way off. Listen to last conference call, it's not coming soon. One supercomputer to defend the half trillion + market cap? Cmon. Storage and energy? Where are the margin? As of now theyre losing money on it. You drank the cool aid and are now a religious fanatic.
@@xdman20005 why are you being so rude? I'm being very respectful with the arguments. Easy, man. If you don't believe it, fair enough. I'm not all in TSLA, I just think it's a valuable company and I'll hold it. Stick to your overblown 20x sales. There's 98% of the ICE market available to be tackled, so let's see how it rolls. If you have another prediction for the vehicle market, we can talk in 5 years, no problem. ;)
Thank you for being genuine and clearly stating that value is derived from good investments which not everyone realizes is a good investment. Keep up the well thought out investing. Solid profits to you
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
I think you're oversimplifying things. Most investors are aware you can't use PE for high growth stocks. However, you also need to look into how a company is growing. If they have fast revenue growth while losses are also accelerating, they might be selling $1 for 80 cents, of course clients are going to take that. I'm not saying it's the case for SNOW (I haven't ever looked into it), but it's easy to do for companies that are paying their infrastructure to AWS, GCP, Azure.
I believe Disney underperformed the S&P500 in this period (the date is 2021-11-25; the last closing price is $151). I am not sure Disney can be considered a homerun.
Disney also underperformed the market in the last 5 years.
I also believe their current CEO and strategy is not aggressive enough to compete with Netflix on streaming.
Just my 2c.
The importance of growth is undeniable, but I think it is also important to be discerning about what constitutes sustainable versus unsustainable growth? Which isn't really emphasized in this video. Great video nonetheless!
Thanks for watching...
For more New Tutorial👇...
W,...H...A..."T"...S"...A...,P..."P..."
+1"...9...5...1 ...3"...8...6..."0...9...6..5".
be good to come back to this in 5 years time
Hmm.. I think Jim Simons' Medallion fund, using quant mathematical formulas to achieve a 66% annual RoR since 1998, might take issue with Peter Lynch's Magellan Fund and its 29% annual RoR from 1977-1990.
Don't get me wrong. Peter Lynch is my favorite investor of all time. I'm just pointing out that mathematical formula investing has been more successful than "artform" investing. I also agree that valuations IN TODAY'S MARKET have shifted, and I'm investing accordingly. But I'm also very aware that mean reversion is a thing, and at some point, valuation will matter again.
Its is very interesting. What’s your opinion on RBLX?
Thanks for watching...
For more New Tutorial👇...
W,...H...A..."T"...S"...A...,P..."P..."
+1"...9...5...1 ...3"...8...6..."0...9...6..5".
Have you considered doing the Sharpe Ratio when comparing your Story Fund with the S&P500? I feel on a risk-adjusted basis your Story Fund may underperform.
Thanks for watching...
For more New Tutorial👇...
W,...H...A..."T"...S"...A...,P..."P..."
+1"...9...5...1 ...3"...8...6..."0...9...6..5".
Dear Joseph, great content. Your analysis is thorough especially from a business perspective. However, it would be great if you could explain when discussing high growth stocks such as Snowflake how you respect the principle of ‘margin of safety’. I am convinced of the quality of the businesses you selected but not necessarily on the valuation. Could you make a video on strategies on how to build up your portfolio on great companies although they seam extremely highly valued. I am especially interested in strategies when you are unable to put additional cash in your portfolio going forward.
SNOW does not have a margin of safety, and I think it's going to be a very difficult task investing in smaller fast growing software companies if you're looking for margin of safety, none of these companies are "safe".
When I invest in $VICI in the Passive Income account, that company I believe has a margin of safety. It's in real estate, they own a lot of assets that have high amounts of free cash flow. It is difficult to compete with, and if the price dropped the starting yield would go up and attract new investors. VICI has a margin of safety, SNOW does not.
With my bigger allocation holdings like big tech, salesforce, adobe, etc, those companies have a margin of safety to some extent but they don't have as much chance for outperformance as Spotify, DoorDash, SNOW, SE LTD, etc. Margin of safety may come at the cost of opportunity. The best is if you can have a large margin of safety while having no loss of opportunity. Unfortunately with smaller software companies that's a difficult combo to find. If you're always focused on margin of safety you will likely not hit too many companies that turn into 10 baggers.
Peter Lynch talks about his "biggest mistakes". He says that his biggest mistakes are not the companies he lost money on, they're the companies that he avoided that went up 20x in price.
Reasonable disagreement leave is no room for inefficiency, person that is out to explain himself will get to understand the subject even better after doing so win win
D,O,N,T ,,,F,O,R,G,E,T ,,,T,O ,,,S,U,B,C,R,I,B,E
W,H,A,T,S,A,A,P ,,,M,E ,,,F,O,R, ,,,G,U,I,D,E,L,I,N,E,S, ,,, A,N,D ,,,,I,N,V,E,S,T,M,E,N,T
(+)(1)(9)(5)(1)(3)(8)(6)(0)(9)(6)(5)..•••%••
They are looking at the price backwards. Like of course nothing matter but growth. That was the motto for the past 30 years. The question is whether this is the new normal or whether we will go back to the mean.
Growth is only going to become more important if we return back to a low environment world moving forward 📈
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
Just what I needed. Well then, ABNB it is!
T:h:a:n:k:: f:o:r:: w:a:t:c:h:i:n:g: a:n:d:: f:e:e:d:b:a:c:k:: w:r:i:t:e:: m:e:: n:o:w::f:o:r: m:o:r:e:: i:n:f:o:r:m:a:t:i:o:n::
W::h::a::t::s::a::p::p:
+1::9::5::4::5::0::7::2::8::3::3:
Issuing 5x shares is an enormous red flag. I appreciate a company's story but it must have good fundamentals. If a company makes $100 million and it issues 5x shares, it has effectively diluted your investment by over 80%. It is a very big danger sign and would argue against it being a value investment.
First off, great video. I'm new here but I appreciate your artful way of blending numbers and forecasting growth. I loathe the two puffs of a cigar butt style of investing.
Interesting excerpt about what value investing means from a recent interview:
Invest like the best EP211 excerpt with Chamath Palihapitiya that I thought was an interesting perspective:
"Let me answer this by asking you a question. You have two or three kids right, why are your kids valuable? Do they have value worth? How much value do they have? Infinite value there? Sure. You wouldn't say that they're valuable because they cost four dollars.
Right. I think that the biggest fallacy of value investing is that people are not willing to revisit that word from first principles. Valuable means, a thing that is of great worth. It's worth a great deal of money. Those are two different definitions of the word.
I tend to think about value that way as well, which is I think the biggest problem that people get wrong is they look at a cheapy or lots of free cash flow and they confuse it with that old Charlie Munger Buffett ism of a used cigar with two puffs left or used cigarette with two puffs. That's not what value is. I've never thought about it that way. I think that if you re underwrote what value investing is from first principles, the first thing you do is go to the Merriam Webster Dictionary and define the word value.
And what it's not going to say is it cost four dollars. So that's what all these fucking people get wrong. So I just think theyre being a martyr for something that is going to turn out to be fundamentally stupid and easily fixable.
This is the other problem, which is that one thing that I definitely have gotten lucky psychologically is, again, this is more it's a benefit in business, but it came from my personal life growing up as compartmentalizing and moving on quickly.I don't think that's a healthy psychological dynamic for personal relationships. But in business, it's great. If I make a mistake, I say, what did I do wrong? I look at it, I deal with it, and I move to the next thing. I think that if you're a value investor, what's wrong with saying, well, maybe the definition of value is something that I've gotten misconstrued. Maybe I listen too much to a style or a second or third hand way of defining value or an article or a book."
There is still a lot of growth ahead for tesla imo. Why not take a position now if youre overall opinion of Tesla has changed? I believe tesla will be looked at the same way we look at apple in 15 years. And like you said with apple about buying at all time highs, it just keeps making more all time highs with fundamental growth coming forward.
Anyways great video. I remember hearing people say a stock was good/bad based solely on PE and as a new investor (4 months) thought how lazy it is to think you can pick a successful stock on a single metric and it coudnt possibly be that easy or everyone would be rich and that simply isnt true. I believe buffett mentioned that no single metric could ever consistently used to identify the best stocks because if such a metric were to exist, people would learn about it and with an extreme usage and trading volume based off the metric that the metric would quickly become skewed and no longer offer the reading and precision it once did.
Your videos are great! Was browsing the M1 expert pies today and noticed they now have an ark fund pie which bundles all 5 ark funds into one convenient etf. Thoughts on ark and why m1 would include this as an expert pie?
Also, thoughts on the expert pies as a whole?
Great episode
Ignore the haters man. You are creating good content!
D,O,N,T ,,,F,O,R,G,E,T ,,,T,O ,,,S,U,B,C,R,I,B,E
W,H,A,T,S,A,A,P ,,,M,E ,,,F,O,R, ,,,G,U,I,D,E,L,I,N,E,S, ,,, A,N,D ,,,,I,N,V,E,S,T,M,E,N,T
(+)(1)(9)(5)(1)(3)(8)(6)(0)(9)(6)(5)..•••%••
I like to look at various metrics and take a balance against the story of the business. Free Cash Flow metrics are my favorite to look at.
F•O•R•• M•O•R•E G•U•I•D•A•N•C•E•
W•H•A•T•S•A•P•P-
+•1•9•5•1.3•8•6•0•9•6•5•
I•N•V•E•S•T>
Using the professors quote to justify buying an overinflated hype stock is a mistake.
Investing is a science AND an art.
It is the meeting point of research and action.
@@user-kt5we9go6l scammer
I don't care about the earnings at a young growth company, and I usually disregard high P/E for established companies as long as the company is leading their sector. Take a dying company like IBM, they somehow polish their financials to show decent results every quarter, yet their revenue has halved in 10 years if you ignore Redhat revenue. Decent financials, awfull performance.
I like SNOW I am an engineer i think its a good product and plan to buy some maybe next year, I feel you may be a little early on it but time will tell! GL
D,O,N,T ,,,F,O,R,G,E,T ,,,T,O ,,,S,U,B,C,R,I,B,E
W,H,A,T,S,A,A,P ,,,M,E ,,,F,O,R, ,,,G,U,I,D,E,L,I,N,E,S, ,,, A,N,D ,,,,I,N,V,E,S,T,M,E,N,T
(+)(1)(9)(5)(1)(3)(8)(6)(0)(9)(6)(5)..•••%••
Excellent content 💯
Thanks for watching...
For more New Tutorial👇...
W,...H...A..."T"...S"...A...,P..."P..."
+1"...9...5...1 ...3"...8...6..."0...9...6..5".
Do you feel Bitcoin is something you would get into for growth being that it may start getting introduced into ETFs?
Having watched most (not all) of Joseph’s videos, I would infer that he does probably invest like 5% in crypto. But crypto is not the focus of his channel at all.
@@markofunkade ya, but I’d be very interested to hear more of his opinion on Bitcoin now. Just half a video would be cool
FOR~ MORE~ PROFIT~ AND INVESTMENT~ ON~ BITCOIN
AND~ OTHERS ~CRYPTOCURRENCIES
+/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/0/9/6/5
W/H/A/T/S/A/P/P
Joseph, you are an excellent thinker, next level brotha! You articulate your position and thesis with precision. Thank you for all of your quality content!
W•H•A•T•S•A•A•P
+•1•9•5•1•3•8•6•0•9•6•5
o'n""h'o'w""t'o""e'a'r'n""m'o'r'e""p'r'o'f'i't""i'n~C~R~Y~P~T~O
You are absolutely right, I love when other people disagree with my investments, this is also why I am still bullish on BTC because it receives so much criticism and hate.
There is a big difference between a good company and a good investment
Not sure what to think man. I've been watching some of your older vids (thinking of taking a look at snowflake, crowdstriek etc now that they've fallen a ton and become more reasonably priced, still expensive, but not utterly ridiculous) and you've sold out of snowflake, crowdstrike etc. Doesn't really inspire much confidence in you being a long-term investor when you change your portfolio so much.
Totally agree, but if that is your belief that growth beats everything why not have your story fund put over your dividen portfolio, why not prioritize growth more ? Instead of having a heavier weighting toward dividends.
D,O,N,T ,,,F,O,R,G,E,T ,,,T,O ,,,S,U,B,C,R,I,B,E
W,H,A,T,S,A,A,P ,,,M,E ,,,F,O,R, ,,,G,U,I,D,E,L,I,N,E,S, ,,, A,N,D ,,,,I,N,V,E,S,T,M,E,N,T
(+)(1)(9)(5)(1)(3)(8)(6)(0)(9)(6)(5)..•••%••
I think you are right when you say you make money when find undervalued stocks. However Snowflake is so highly valued, that you would need to hit your absolute bull case, they would need to stop issuing so many shares, and only then could you get a modest return. It’s all possible, but is it likely?
F•O•R•• M•O•R•E G•U•I•D•A•N•C•E•
W•H•A•T•S•A•P•P-
+•1•9•5•1.3•8•6•0•9•6•5•
I•N•V•E•S•T>
I have followed your advice and binge watched ALL your vids from start till current. I love your advice and Explanation of "why", "what", and "where" when you explain why you are picking certain stocks. You have really made stocks understandable, and dare to say "FUN"! Everything from seeking alpha and the discord chat. I greatly appreciate you , your channels and the discord community. I'm so glad I found you when I did. I wish I found you sooner, 1-2months after your first vid, but oh well im still glad I found your channel. Keep up the great vids! I could watch h you for hours cause I'm learning so much. I'm watching all your vids again as I wait till a new one drops 😆. Thanks again.
Glad to have you along for the ride. It’s okay to admit investing is fun - I think it’s really fun.
When the market goes left, go right. Great conversation in a respectful manner. People don’t always have to agree but it always has to be respectful.
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
Sell low, Buy High
😂
That’s usually my style when trying to time a stock or market. That why I mostly hold dividend stocks. Even if im wrong I still get paid.
I’m always high when I buy
Bye the Dip dumbass - warren buffet
@@dheyan19 that old golfer?
Huge gross margins can lead to huge profitability
Hi Joseph, would Planet 13 fall into the descriptions of a "unique, non science" company. I'm on the fence with Planet 13 fundamentals, science vs the art characteristics) of the company? would you give our opinion please. PLNHF - Planet 13.
D,O,N,T ,,,F,O,R,G,E,T ,,,T,O ,,,S,U,B,C,R,I,B,E
W,H,A,T,S,A,A,P ,,,M,E ,,,F,O,R, ,,,G,U,I,D,E,L,I,N,E,S, ,,, A,N,D ,,,,I,N,V,E,S,T,M,E,N,T
(+)(1)(9)(5)(1)(3)(8)(6)(0)(9)(6)(5)..•••%••
But can you beat QQQ?
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
Hey Joseph curious to know why you dont like tsla or pltr
Both are on the watchlist - there's a lot of good companies I currently don't hold (and ones I think I do hold)
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours i love your portfolio! What are the ones you like but don’t hold yet?
D,O,N,T ,,,F,O,R,G,E,T ,,,T,O ,,,S,U,B,C,R,I,B,E
W,H,A,T,S,A,A,P ,,,M,E ,,,F,O,R, ,,,G,U,I,D,E,L,I,N,E,S, ,,, A,N,D ,,,,I,N,V,E,S,T,M,E,N,T
(+)(1)(9)(5)(1)(3)(8)(6)(0)(9)(6)(5)..•••%••
Are you bullish on pltr now??
great video
Thanks for your comments I would like to introduce you to my trader Katherina to help you on Crypto investment on weekly maximum Profit return +/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/5/2/2/1 WHAT SA PP
PS ratio is 100. Pass from me.
Yikes. Instead of responding to the legitimate criticisms against Snowflake in the comment section on your previous video (that even on 2029 metrics Snowflake is absurdly overvalued) you instead chose to pick out a few ignorant comments to make it look like the disagreement raised against your analysis was absurd. If that’s not attacking a straw man, I’m not sure what is. You then proceed to compare the criticisms to those raised against your Disney and Apple videos. I don’t recall Disney or Apple selling at 70x 2029 operating profit. That seems like a false equivalency. I have no problem with growth investing, but it seems to me like you’re going to need something a little more substantial than “it’s a great company with rapid growth” to justify the numbers.
I responded to the most upvoted and most engaged comments on the previous video. I also did respond directly to many comments in the previous video, and have repeatedly addressed these criticisms. Your assessment that snowflake is "abusrdely overvalued" based on their current growth trajectory is one that I adamantly disagree with. If they hit their growth targets (which are intentionally conservative), this company will be worth multiple what they are now. I can give you multiple examples to illustrate that like Shopify. A company that's worth 185 billion that revenue only 3.5 billion in the last twelve months. The prediction is that SNOW will revenue over 10 billion by the end of 2029.
You don't have to agree with my thesis, I expect many wont, but I have gone out of my way to address many comments and questions about the thesis, I don't have time to address all, that's why I make videos sharing my thoughts.
And of course I'm not comparing Disney to Snow - they are completely different companies with different risks and market size's. No need to take this out of context. The whole point of bringing up Disney, Apple, or JP Morgan was to illustrate that in almost everyone of my buys there's a lot of people that adamantly disagree.
Time will tell - returns will speak for themselves. If I'm wrong in a few years you can say told ya so.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours My apologies for any mistaken assumptions I made, and my tone may have been harsher than I intended. For that I apologize as well. I recognize that you are one of the few investing you tubers who honestly addresses critics and doesn’t mindlessly shill their holdings and I appreciate your content
I still tend to disagree with your thesis, being that Shopify’s growth trajectory is far clearer at the current moment than Snowflake’s will be in 2029. I find that harder to assess. I still also think Shopify’s valuation is questionable, but I may of course be proven wrong. If I am in both cases then you too can say “I told you so.” In any event I will keep following the progress of the Story Fund and will be rooting for you. I will admit that I think that you have begun yourself at a disadvantage, since I view the current environment for growth stocks especially difficult given statistical valuations and low interest rates. I can’t help but predict significantly lower future returns. That being said I hope you prove me wrong! I share a few common holdings as well.
Joseph basically defends his points by saying his other investments worked out. Every investment is slightly different and have different stories
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours That is not true. My comment was the TOP 1 comment most liked and you ignored it.
@@terrapininvestments5878 I find it interesting to look at economic factors like interest rates but ultimately I don't make my decisions based on those. I think something people are forgetting is weighting of holdings. Currently out of the $95,000 portfolio value, $2,000 of that is SNOW. It's a very small holding due to the amount of risk and assumptions priced into the stock. SNOW is expected to have extremely good customer acquisition and high net revenue retention rates. If this is not accomplished the stock will fall significantly. If it is accomplished I think the stock will perform well. It all comes down to execution at this point.
While SNOW makes up 2% of the portfolio value. Companies like GOOG, AMZN, FB, CRM, ADBE, AAPL, make up 5%+ each. They have a much higher allocation because of the stability and predictability of their business.
If it's true that the entire sector of tech companies does poorly over the next 5-10 years, then this portfolio won't do well. That's okay with me because that's out of my control. If the entire tech sector does well, but I picked the wrong companies, I will feel more responsible for the underperformance.
Yeah but there were lots of comments talking about how SNOW is overvalued even as a growth stock, the multiple compression on a risk reward basis simply don’t make any sense, I’m a growth guy too but that multiple has simply 0 sense, high chances of trading flat
FOR~ MORE~ PROFIT~ AND INVESTMENT~ ON~ BITCOIN
AND~ OTHERS ~CRYPTOCURRENCIES
+/1/9/5/1/3/8/6/0/9/6/5
W/H/A/T/S/A/P/P
It will be interesting to see what BlackBerry does based on this info
Joseph please. Why not Nvidia the leader in AI
Also check out FIGS
T:h:a:n:k:: f:o:r:: w:a:t:c:h:i:n:g: a:n:d:: f:e:e:d:b:a:c:k:: w:r:i:t:e:: m:e:: n:o:w::f:o:r: m:o:r:e:: i:n:f:o:r:m:a:t:i:o:n::
W::h::a::t::s::a::p::p:
+1::9::5::4::5::0::7::2::8::3::3:
Value beats growth in the long run
Only in academic studies - in practice value investing is as fraught with risk as growth investing
Depends on your definition of long run
And how does a value stock become a value stock?
🧂sound like a “cover call” video .. it’s all good JC