Hey everyone, welcome! My name is Dominik, I'm a researcher at a think tank, UA-camr and now a podcast host! If you share my slightly nerdy passion for geopolitics, security, conflicts and international relations, this is the podcast for you. So let me know what you thought about the interview and whether you agree with Mark or not, and make sure you subscribe because there are many more episodes coming up! (Including one with the author of the DGAP policy paper that we've discussed in this interview.)
Congrats on getting Dr. Galeotti. Quite a catch for a small channel. But it's understandable: what expert wants to talk with the good-looking airheads on TV when they can have an intelligent discussion with someone like you? And you're even good looking. Get a green screen and a nice background and your next goal can be 25k viewers, then 100k. I believe in you!
@@BojanPeric-kq9et but he dominated Europe and it needed multiple coalitions that fought him directly to beat him since he beat them all the time. He also conquered Moscow and then the weather beat him. He also fought himself and was in field and not hiding behind a super long table because he was scared to get sick. He also is and was considered a Military Genius and respected as such even by his enemies. Meanwhile Putin couldnt even take Kharkiv and is struggling against a Ukraine that is only half a** supported by the west with not enough and mostly old equipment. Putin is not even slightly close to Napoleon.
Don't worry, US will keep you in check and then fairly soon China will start to make larger and larger bites to your technology export markets. In 10-15 years this war will be effectively forgotten, but it's economic consequences will stay forever.
This Mark guy seems rather clueless about how Russians think. They calculate that they can occupy Balt's territory without much resistance, then fortify and all they have to do is repel any NATO's attacks to regain the Baltic states. They calculate those efforts to be disjointed and partly half-hearted when it comes to the top Europan countries. All it takes for Russia to win strategically is for NATO article 5 response to be weak. After that NATO's reputation would be finished, even if in the end the Russian forces get expelled from Baltic states. Russia is counting on NATO not being able to respond swiftly and decisively and they may have a point. They don't want to conquer the Balts, they want to show that NATO isn't really a cohesive pact. That is all they want to do and you don't have to have a super army to attempt that. The army just has to good enough to overwhelm the Balts and then the Russian can use their intelligence / foreign influence to dissuade the Western Europeans from embarking on a major military response. I can see why the Russians would think that way. It does not matter if the West believes it's doable. It only matters that the Russians believe they are able to do it.
The Russians displayed a modern captured German Tiger tank along with a WW2 captured German Tiger Tank in Red square. Germans should practice pattern recognition.
Happy, prosperous Russia??? As if the "West" didn't already invest there. I am a Finn, and I take a bit of an offence over the assessment that the "West" is acting in a hostile manner. There are many Russians living in Finland, enjoying the same social benefits as Finns. The border was closed because of Russian hybrid warfare against Finland (and the EU in a larger context). Defence doesn't equal hostility. Also, there has been some strategic land purchases in Finland over the years by a Russian oligarch with ties to Putin. These were islands near important shipping routes, communication cables, and Finnish military installations. The purchases were made with the pretence of "building resorts", but were later revealed to liken military bases. I hear naivety when someone tells me that Russia doesn't have sabotage and/or invasion plotted into their end game.
What a load of nonsense. We have had a steady stream of reports that Minsk was just a stop-gap so that NATO could arm and train Ukraine. The only people pretending that NATO are a defensive alliance are in or want to join NATO. You better pray that the NATO plans for Russia don't include using Finland to weaken them.
Very well said & so obvious to anyone who’s been paying attention. The Finns know more than most about what’s at stake if one’s guard is let down which is why they have one of the finest & quickly ready, armies in the world.
women have no business in politics you can sell them anything .i have a finish friend and he tells me about Russians in Finland and has never had a problem with them its the western backed politicians manufacturing bs demonizing Russia
This is a really superb interview. I can agree with much of it. However it is a matter of survival-economic, political, cultural, and moral-for Ukraine to take back Crimea. Otherwise Russia would have a permanent choke-hold over Azov and Ukraine’s free access to the Black Sea, as well as a permanent base from which to launch another offensive once it has regrouped. Therefore, among other things, foreign investment in Ukraine would be permanently stifled, as would Ukrainian morale. Therefore if Ukraine and the West are not all-in on retaking Crimea, at whatever the price, then Ukraine is lost, and with it the credibility of the West, which will have huge military and political repercussions worldwide, especially in east Asia. There simply is no viable choice.
Nobody understands Russia like these Ukranians, we need them in the EU and also NATO. Excellent interview. I love when an interviewer gives a person a good chance to respond well and fully to questions.
@@BojanPeric-kq9etyou are very wrong, Soviet Russians and Nazi Germans had the most supportive friendship and clear understanding of each other’s imperialistic goals. 1. Kremlin dictators helped Germans break the Treaty of Versailles in their Tank School near Kazan where future Nazi Generals improved their skills. 2. Ribbentrop Molotov pact signed by the Nazis and Soviets in Kremlin started German-Russian aggression on their neighbors. 3. German Soviet Commercial Agreement Russian raw materials fueled German death camps and their war machine up until the very morning of German attack on Russia- their ex-friends and partners in crimes. Now, you want to mention insignificant person, Bandera, who was imprisoned by the Nazis for almost entire duration on WW2? Russia was Nazis biggest friend and enabler and now idiot putin turned Russia into a Fascist State (I would not call Russia a Nazi state just yet but who knows where imbecile fuhrer putin is taking Russia).
@@BojanPeric-kq9et German Soviet Commercial Agreement was signed on Feb 11th, 1940. Germany invaded Yugoslavia on April 6th, 1941. Who do you think gave Germans raw materials (Manganese, oil, coal, etc) to invade Serbia???? It was definitely not Bandera from his prison cell in Nazi Germany.
Whilst Mark has a lot of great knowledge and insight, I wish he'd stop being fatalistic about Crimea. Providing Ukraine with what they need to take back Crimea - would be the clear cut defeat that would undermine Putin and his so-called Special Operation.
I think he's being realistic about how much the West is willing or able to send to Ukraine. This BS in the US Congress is disturbing. Our allies must be increasingly concerned with our commitment to them.
@markb8468 yes disturbing indeed Ukraine is rich in reserves waiting for proper investment plus whilst crimea isn't maldives lol it does have potential with investment... Good weather spring to early autumn. If we were invaded we generally so we don't have enough for ourselves then lol god help us all. Ukraine is basically dismantling Russian arms and who will buy Russian kit now 🤔 🙄 it's a no brainer to support and make em win for the west. I must be missing something.
You obviously think that more weapons will take back Crimea, but what is Ukraine going to use for troops to operate the weapons? They have had game changing weapons from over 32 countries and billions of dollars in aid, both weapons and money have disappeared. Zelenskys wife shopping in New York spent millions on jewellery. Ukraine is not known as the most corrupt country in Europe for no reason. You can make as many excuses and put as much spin on it as you like, but Ukraine is losing
Not really "Decoding Geopolitics" when you take all your information from a government/NGO/Institution sponsored source. Thought you might actually push back or even play devils advocate but as I see from your statement you are a " researcher for a think tank" so your job is to find material to back up the pre determined postions of whoever is paying for the reasearch or white paper. You are there to embolden the narrative and not to question it.
Western geostrategists make no effing sense. Mr. Galeotti said that Russia gave up it's massive army in favor of mobile response capabilities. I share his observation. The Russian BTG's were not geared for the conflict in Ukraine. A lot of Western commentators say Russia planned the invasion and is going to invade other Central European countries. But the fact they didn't prepare their military for it speaks against it. To be fair, I have to exclude Mr. Galeotti, he never claimed that. Also the reasons that nobody attacked Wagner on their march, is wishful thinking in my opinion. Anybody who has any idea about escalation/de-escalation knows that shooting at people escalates things. Putin did everything right with that one. Also, no Russian official who is to be taken seriously, stated that Ukraine is going to be taken in three days. It would take longer just to traverse the territory. Mark Milley said that. The whole siege of Kiev narrative is total bs, they had only fifty thousand men at max there. Not nearly enough for a city of over three milion. In this moment, about as much men are attacking Avdiivka, a town of thirty-two thousand. We have statements from Zelensky's chief negotiator, Naftali Bennet and Turkish and German officials that the Russians and the Ukrainians already had a peace deal. The Russians at Kiev were there to exert pressure and were redeployed elsewhere after negotiations failed thanks to Boris Johnson. Western Analysts assume something and if it comes differently, they say the Russians miscalculated. Where do they get the idea that Putin thought the Ukrainians are going to welcome them with open arms? Maybe the FSB was not punished because they never claimed such a thing... Western Analysts, too many assumptions and nothing tangible.
What "Russians at Kiev"? Do you mean the special forces sent in there to behead the government? They weren't there to "exert pressure", they were there to imprison and kill the current regime. It is crystal clear that Putin and his gang thought they were engineering a coup, rather than an full invasion. They failed, and are now stuck in a morass in the south.
People do not support Ukraine. Only the distached western elite does. So.. "trollers" are actually just normal people not super into USA's constant political and military conquest and propaganda against Russia and China.. Imagine if the richest country on earth (USA) produces the nastiest propaganda against you for like.. 60 years in a row? How deep the indoctrination of the US people must have gotten.. Truly satanic in my opinion. Hopefully France remains smart and strong in its tactful opposition to the anglosaxon warmongers.
No doubt thirty odd years ago Serbians never thought they would se Milosovic in a cell in The Hague, but that is where he ended up. Something that has always struck me as significant is the enthusiasm of the people of Rostov for Prigozhin as his forces set off for Moscow. Despite Galeotti’s call for a more coordinated Western strategy, his closing remarks seemed pessimistic and inclined to appeasement. There will never be a “happy prosperous democratic Russia”. That is wishful thinking, and if Ukraine’s security does depend on that, Ukraine will never be secure. Any compromise by the West when it comes a peace deal will be seen as weakness to be exploited. Only a military defeat or regime collapse will convince the occupants of the Kremlin of the strategic futility of threatening its western neighbours. Putin, and many in Russia, do have imperial ambition, ambition that does not end with Ukraine. For Russian propagandist calling for a march on Berlin or the nuking of London, the closing of the Finnish border is small beer that will barely create a ripple.
The ceausescus is even more striking. This is how it works in dictatorships. Everybody pretends to love you and makes up whatever statistics are needed to pretend everything is wonderful as long as you hold a gun to their head; but when the facade crumbles everybody says they always hated you. It’s like the way a guinnea pig behaves when they are sick; they just pretend everything is fine until things get so awful and they are so close to death that they can’t keep pretending.
The richest land and by far the biggest in the universe and Putin wants more land ..lol lol western media is a comedy Central.. The only thing Russia cares for their people in Ukraine who's is in millions...haha I get good laugh with people who think they know everything but nothing.
I still can’t believe Milosovich's Srebrenica massacre. Because prominent Moscovian propagandists such as Solovyov, Skabeyeva, Simonyan, but especially Dmitry Peskov speak for Putin’s wishes and dreams - otherwise Putin would shut them down - the West should not regard them as entertainment but taken to heart; I saw a graphic on one of their channels showing a banner during a pro-Moscow rally saying that “Russia has no borders,” with the implication, in my opinion, that Putin regards European and NATO borders as fictional, hence no need to honor them and, in fact and specifically, that the wayward Ukraine is a fake nation; fundamentally part of Moscow's culture and its territory. Solovyov and his friends spoke about invading Spain, GB, Germany, and capturing Alaska, all of which gives fairly accurate insight into the long term plans swirling in Putin’s brain.
@@michaelgill5644 If he is, it would be insanely impressive to guide such a tough to lead country in the face of an opponent that has produced hateful propaganda for like.. 60 years? Crazy. And that nation also being the richest nation on earth with 25+ allies. Dang.. that's crazy. Russia is basically fighting a 1 v 20 and Putin is still doing well after 2+ years. To anyone not hyper indoctrinated by western propaganda, that is extremely impressive.
Great interview. I like the cautious optimism of Mark Galeotti, only on one point I am more pessimistic - I do not believe that Russia will become a European state again in the foreseeable future, apart from the fact that it lies to a lesser extent on the European continent. It has once again become clear that essential elements are missing that would be necessary for a democracy: civil society, rule of law, fight against corruption, free speech, separation of powers, etc. I’m afraid this dream is over for a long time.
Russia will for sure become a European state "again" when Russians will overthrow Putin on a Maidan, violate their own constitution and laws (like Ukrainians did in 2014, and like Europeans usually do, instead of voting, they overthrow their leaders), suppress anyone who goes against Russian Maidan (because that's democratic), fire all Russian state media officials (and put them in prison) and then hire NEW state media officials who will broadcast a pro-US, pro-NATO narrative (suppress anyone who criticizes that), give up their nuclear weapons, start war mongering against China (for the benefit of US), lower the gas prices so that dear partners in the west can buy it for cheap or even for free., allow LBGT parades and start drag shows in their schools, educate kids about LBGT. Then Russia will become EUROPEANS.
@@happyhappynuts What I mentioned above is not culture though, it's ANTI-culture and politics. ANTI-European politics, while trying to convince the population that that is somehow "European".
Do you know how long it took Germany to became "European state" again? Less than 15 years. Rule of law? European countries, like NATO members, had break international law many times. Free speech? That is shaky.
The Analysis of Putin should include a Sociopath that serves his Ego and Hubris as an extension of Russia's Geopolitical Goals regardless of International Law and Norms.
No... That is what a Free Democracy is for .....electing representatives from the regions to contribute to the running of a Country.. Not a Authoritarian Dictator like Putin .Trudeau isn't a sociopath , not the leaders of any Scandinavian Country, New Zealand Australia,Biden isn;t a Murdering Sociopath Any Free Liberal Democracy,,
The whole weight of NATO? NATO hasn’t even started besides weapons deliveries, not even as NATO, but some individual countries that are really holding back …
When I first heard of the Russian invasion, the direct airborne attack on Kiev airport, and the armoured thunder-run thereof I thought it was game over. And despite what all the Monday morning experts are now saying, that's what they were all saying at the time. But warfare has always been 80% will and tenacity (morale) contribution to success. Even Napoleon said this many times. The Germans have fully invaded France two times: 1870 and 1940. They picked their timing when France was politically weak and fractured. What the Russians have failed in is their timing, Ukraine was never stronger than in 2019.
to Mark's comment at 43:10 - Putin is certainly not stupid. But he is having the same issues all dictators have. If You foster a culture of non-dissent, you loose touch with reality. When nobody dares to tell You about reality, for fear of falling from a high window or drinking tea, You cannot improve whatever is failing. This is also why dictatorships never innovate. This was the ultimate reason, why the soviet block was stuck in the 1940s. Just ask yourself: what is a major innovation, that came from a dictatorship?
Hm. Just to play devil's advocate: The Germans were doing pretty well in that regard under Hitler. The race for the atom bomb was a really close thing, for example. And that was even with losing several eminent scientists to the USA, because they happened to not fit into or agree with their racist ideology. There were lots and lots of weapons and aircraft and submarine related inventions. Great and not so great discoveries in chemistry, like Polyurethane and Sarin gas. Particle board. Methadone. To name just a few. Dictatorship or not, there's no reason to assume, that that regime would have failed, if Hitler hadn't invaded Russia. If he had listened to his Generals and not bitten off more than his army could chew, a good part of Europe would probably have ended up under German occupation for a while. Although there's no telling, if whoever would have followed him, would have managed to hold all of that together for long, afterwards, of course. It's too bad that Putin, who is well aware of German history of course (he lived and worked in the DDR for a number of years as a young man), can't seem to see the parallels in history here and is trying to establish his own 'Third Reich', whatever the cost.
@@raraavis7782 very true. However, most of the science and engineering was done before 1940 during a time when Hitler still delegated a lot of authority to Himmler, Göring and Rust. What makes Putin different is that most of his cronies are in it for the money. Ensuring even more to keep the truth from Putin so they can continue to line their pockets. See for example the vaunted T-14 Armata tank or the fabled new combat gear for the army that for some funny reason never came to be. Aside from a couple of prototype level pieces lacking far behind specs. And then of course, there is no industry besides raw materials and all of the high-tech required for the military was imported from the west. Take night vision or targeting optics made in France for example. Hitler was certainly in the same quagmire from late 1941, when he began to avoid bad news. But he started out from a different place, being proud of what German scientist were capable of doing only a short time after WW1
No one can know what the future will hold for any person or situation, no matter how much of an expert they are on some subject. It you look at so many of the predictions experts make about all kinds of topics it is surprising how many times they are wrong. Why? In my opinion, it is because human behavior is more complex than we think it is. Past patterns of behavior usually predict future behaviors, but not always. There will always be outliers, people who shift away from the typical middle of the road and take a different path. Putin is an unpredictable person, he went from being an ordinary KBG agent to becoming a dictator of his country, no one saw that ever happening. OnlyPutin knows what he will do next.
1) If the West had given Ukraine ALL it needed for this war the outcome would already be totally different. 2) A guy who was admittedly wrong about Putin invading Ukraine should perhaps not make predictions on what will happen in regards to the Baltics, etc. 3) Hoping for a prosperous democratic Russia is wishful thinking which has no basis in reality. The West needs to bolster up to be able to defend itself and stop the constant wondering about what Russia might or might not do. The West should lead with a clear strategy and not just simply wait everything out and react far too late to every single challenge.
Then you ruin leftovers of your economy. Look... USofA enter WW2 with the debt of 40% GDP and ended with the debt of 130% GDP. Now they has debt of 130% GDP before the eventual war. You are done, bro. Theres no "mighty West" anymore. Where all those empires? Gone. Show me your armies, show me society ready to sacrifice itself. Sit quiet and we'll let you live. From Russia with love, b***s
Are you really serious. If The Russia army did what the USA did to Iraq and Vietnam. You won't be there to make this statement. So you might be a aPro Ukraine guy but don't rush your mind to think that Russia would have lost .
@@raymondparnell439 "Outlasted" in the sense of fostering lasting political and societal stability. Russia and China are rather incredible in this regard from a western viewpoint.
Wow, you've managed to out-stupid all the other Putin scutboys in this thread, congrats! You *are* aware, aren't you, that US presidents can't occupy the office for two terms, right? Unlike Russia, we don't have a president for life (though Trump would like to change that, of course).
@@Habib_Osman That must be why the Russian population has been in steep decline throughout the president-for-life's terms, i.e., there are a lot fewer of them than there were 20 years ago, and 20 years from now there'll be fewer still. That must be why Russian science and technology are nowadays a sad joke, why they can't produce a single thing the world wants other than commodities. You Putin shills just get more and more delusional, pathetic.
@@lockbert99 well, if you read his speech for yourself at the meeting organized by the ROC , you will be aware that he described Russia as being in an exestential fight with " the west" for, not only the freedom of Russia, but the whole world. He claimed that Russia was going to create a new, more equitable, world order, which would not be possible without a strong, soverign Russia, (presumably with Russia at the head of it !). It depends on what you think that means. He already invaded Ukraine to kill and maim, presumably to further these aims, so my assesment, is that, if he has any kind of success in Ukraine, he will continue to expand Russian hegomony by force, as he has done in Ukraine. It seems all too reminiscent of 1939 with that new world order which was intended to last for a thousand years. What's your interpretation ? A new era of peace and prosperity ?, now where did I hear that before ? миру битe, планема жит, ! A new world order ? commencing with invasion, death, destruction, and increased weapons production ? Your call ?
@@ericwillis777 The new world order he and China and what is called the "Global South" want is "multi-polar", meaning it isn't "unipolar" where the USA dominates everything (since the collapse of the Soviet Union). He invaded Ukraine because the Russians consider NATO in Ukraine unacceptable as western leaders have long known (with the NATO leader USA not caring).
@@lockbert99hey, I thought you were going to set me right and demonstrate how peaceloving and progressive Russia is. I guess not. Forgetting Russia's domination of Eastern Europe after WW2, just look at who Russia's allies are in their " New World Order" - North Korea, and Iran ! - Surely, even for the most ardent Russian supporter, that says it all. A new world order, swinging on a new "Axis of Evil" - Stalin, Hitler, Napoleon, and Pol Pot would be pleased to see that psychopathic tyrany is still in vogue !
@@ericwillis777 the bit that you are almost uniquely unable to understand, being an Anglo like me, and unlike almost every other country in this world, is that Russia, unlike the USA or the UK, has been invaded by foreign armies again and again over the centuries, above all their war with Nazi Germany, in which our part was really a sideshow. Russia paid dearly to win that war, and they don't anything like it to ever happen again. All of Russia, not just Putin. The agreement at the end of the Cold War, when Russia released its hold over eastern Europe, was that NATO would not expand to the east. They believe they are in a defensive war (a pre-emptive strike, but still defensive in nature) against the West, who REFUSED to listen to their reasonable concerns about NATO expansion and therefore, apparently, have hostile intent.
Would you like to be succeded by Medvedev. Or Zirinovski. In present time putin id the only guy you can talk reasonably. But,he will protect russian interest firmly. That makes him bad bad guy ,indeed. You guys in the west are crying for another Yeltsin. Not yet.
You need to look at the other RuSSia war being ignited in Bosna right now .This one is going to be very serious and a repeat of 1991-95 . RuSSia is benefitting from the Israel conflict and a new conflict in Bosna is hoped by Putin will break EU will to support Ukraine.
The problem is, as I see it, that all of this puts pressure on the Russian economy. So much money spent on internal security and other stability measures, is making it much worse.
I am trying to reconcile Galeottis' claim that the Russian military will be financially unsustainable very soon, with his separate claim that Russia remains a permanent challenge for Ukraine.
I think his point is that the Russian economy as a whole will become financially unsustainable but Russia will just pump all the resources it has into the war. Simultaneously, Russia has far greater manpower which we can already see is becoming a growing issue despite Western support for Ukraine. First point in particular matters I think because, even if Russian economy does become unsustainable for the majority, the majority actually has very little capacity to change the system
Look at Chechnya. Russia demonstrated that defeats don't mean anything if the country they attacked doesn't have security guarantees. They'll be back again and again.
well the Russians tried to do radical military reforms when Putin appointed former general Anatoly Serdyukov in 2007 to reform the Russian army away from the Soviet doctrinal model to something like the American one. However it failed and Serdyukov was deposed and arrested for corruption in 2012 and replaced by Sergei Shoigu who promptly stopped the reforms and massively expanded the Russian military. Shoigu lavisly equipped the Russian military and created teh battalion tactical groups which in their view woulud make the Russian army flexible and powerful enough to take on the west. However the soviet style doctrine remained, teh centralized inflexible command and control and the bad corruption remained. So yah the Russian army looked formidable before the war turned out to be a incompetent bumbling giant when war with Ukraine happened. Russia was thinking of fighting the war in Ukraine like it was Desert storm Russian style. but instead the Russians were fighting the Ukraine war like it was the 1930s USSR. Notice the Russians seem to have reverted back to using the old Soviet style divisional structures for their units with teh battalion tactical groups being discarded. and tactics seem to be reverting back to the 1930s style soviet way of fighting, (eg. massive artillery bombardments followed by a massive surge of infantry and tanks. I think in going with Mark said about the Russians using history to frame discussions of reform in the Russian army, they looked at the failure of the cold war Soviet style tactics saw it failed and they had no other ideas, and going towards NATO style reforms is absolutely out of the questions since NATO is now seen as the devil. So they are reverting to 1930s style Soviet tactics since they have no other ideas. Also yes the Russians are getting better at drone warfare and ECM. but those are exceptions, the Russian army maybe massive now will lots of men and tanks, but their training still sucks, motivations and morale bad to very bad, leadership sucks command and control centralized sucks and inflexible, along with lots of Putin micromanaging. PUtin's purge of the Russian military after the Prigozhin mutiny means the Russian officers are even worse quality than ever , orders are followed to the letter with no deviation staffed by yes men incompetent corrupt officers. That is why the Russians cannot do multiple big offensives since their logistics will fall out, since their command control is inflexible. That is why the front line has not much changed since Dec 2022. meanwhile the Russians have lost 350K casualties so far and the Ukrainians are still fighting hard and exacting a lot of Russian casualties in the process. The smaller less firepower Ukrainian army holding back the supposed 2nd strongest army in the world the Russian army, is telling and the Ukrainians recaptured 50 percent of the territory they lost to Russia. Its that level of incomptenence and ineptitude of leadership int he Russian army and gov that has led to this.
? doesn't sound like a smart idea! USA's strategy doesn't work well in europe, tanks in europe for example need to be smaller due to europes terrain. so, it's a great thing the reform failed! Lol. Also, Russia's current artillery heavy strategy is working really well at killing/destroying without being killed/destroyed. Imagine a 7:1 artillery advantage.. for every shell you fire 7 come raining back.. dang that's scary.
Plus.. the reform wouldn't have mattered anyway. The battlefield has radically evolved into an entirely new direction anyway.. so, doesn't look like it would have mattered at all.
I'm Norwegian. Anything else than total return of Ukrainian land pisses me of. That anyone can suggest this are messed up. Russia must never earn anything on their aggressive war.
Russia has always fought that way. They take losses and terrain. Ukraine takes losses but hardly terrain and the little they gained, they are loosing now. As I said, not bothered by the situation on the terrain. @@jchase8223
Can't forget that if someone other than putin had been given the reins none of the is would be happening. There is stil hope that when he's gone Russia wil return to sanity.
Putin is a product of Russian culture, Russian thinking. Russians have spent the last two decades passively watching Putin and the siloviki consolidate their power, and they did *nothing*. You can *always* count on the Russians to fall back to their standard "we can't do anything/woe is us/somebody please save us" mindset. That society is hopeless.
I am time and again so amazed and bewildered when those dudes always chatter about someone's "downfall", yet never ever seem to reckon with the collapse of their own shitty system.
I don't think the Russians will be in a hurry to invade Finland after what you did with them in world war 2 and now Finland has one of best trained army's in the world
The Finns have a highly advanced military with a proper chain of command, they are also a highly educated and sophisticated nation. Don't be fooled by its size. This Nordic powerhouse would utterly smoke the Russian rabble of an "army"...
@@frankmcloughlin7076 Ok.. I guess in this information war everyone has got to be a little edgy.. understandable. But we are entirely in agreeance. Russia will not invade Finland, because Finland in in NATO. It would just be a really dumb move. Right? What propaganda often fails to capture is that nations don't do things out of the blue randomly. Nations do things because they are the clear best choice for them at that moment in time. So.. Russia won't accidentally invade Finland whilly nilly, get attacked back by NATO and think: whoopsies! That's not how it goes. And it is also not a question of: Insane maniac Putin is dreaming of greater Russia again and for that reason suddenly attacks Finland. That's also, not how it works. Things did kinda work this way in the middle ages. When european nations were ruled by a single king, Yes, this kind of stuff was actually possible. But things changed a little bit since 1200 AD for Russia surprisingly! It's definitely not the 1200's anymore that's for sure :)
I think it is a fair assumption that Ukraine has NO territorial ambitions towards Russia. Therefore the key to this situation is to give Ukraine a sufficiently strong DEFENCE that will permenantly DETER RUSSIA from the agreed borders of the Minsk agreement. The two weapns that would achieve this end are LONG RANGE MISSILES, that could destroy military supply routes into the occupied areas (especially the Kirsch Bridge) and an AIR DEFENCE that would keep Russian drones and missiles out of Ukrainian skies. Putin's regime could then 'do whatever it likes' without consequese to anybody else. Russia has NEVER HAD DEOCRACY, and probably never will (strong parallels with Stalin and Ivan described here). Putins duplicitous, mendacious and totally untrustworthy conduct makes peace negotiations and diplomatic protocols IMPOSSIBLE. The only direction for the future is strong and permenant DETERANCE.
Political Science is not the strong suit of the average citizen. Democracy with no Judicial oversight in a viable CONSTITUTION TO HOLD A REPUBLIC TOGEATHER IS MOB RULE WITH NO FUTURE. FRANCE DID IT , WE DID IT(THE USA) USEING HISTORICAL TEMPLATES A DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE FOR AN EDUCATED PEOPLE. A MODICUM OF SOBRIETY WOULD BE NECESSARY IN RUZZYS CASE ALONG WITH TRUE REPRESENTATION OF ITS CITIZENS. THIS IS WHERE I CAN SAY DICTATORSHIPS ARE DEAD ENDS INEVITABLY, NOT HELPFULL, EVER!
That was because the DPR imported Russian tanks which THREATENED Ukraine. If Gorbachov had been the ruler of Russia, it would have been possible to reach adiplomatic sttlement with largely Russian DPR!@@UncleMort
You had me until the end. 700 years of history suggest it's not possible to effect the change in thinking you suggest. IMO it's better to knock their military industrial complex back to the Bronze Age. No guarantee the outcome would be better, but I believe the odds are higher.
BINGO. Russia has Never been known for much of anything, if not its military. And THAT mostly centered around their psychopathic willingness to send massive numbers of their most recently conquered peoples, in waves of cannon fodder to take the NEXT small territory. Russia would have ceased to exist long ago using those ancient tactics, if not for the Russian winter which saved it several times over history. But now, weather and distance means very little in modern warfare. Its actually hurting Russia more than Ukraine today, because thanks to NATO and the USA Ukraine is better equiped to deal with harsh winters than poorly equiped Russia is.
@@robgrey6183 Are you sure Muscovy's nuclear weapons work? They're high-maintenance items, what are the odds the upkeep budget got turned into a superyacht?
@@rogerphelps9939 Lol.. dang. Do you truly believe that? Putin with shaking hands looking worried.. I can't even imagine how much anti-Russian propaganda one needs to ingest to have such fantastical beliefs. I wish I was able to live in a fantasy world like that!
Putin did a live 4 hour interview on national TV without any teleprompters with constant random questions from audience members. The camera looked into the public many times, so there were actually NO Teleprompters for 4 hours. Biden literally struggles with a 10 minute speech while making use of teleprompters with a huge letter size. Crazy stuff.
Those of you in the West rooting for Putin ought to understand that he is not a Western-style conservative. He is not fighting against liberal ideology, he is fighting against the Western civilization. Just imagine how miserable you would be in a world ruled by Putin: no freedoms, no liberties, no human dignity, total police state, poverty and an atmosphere of fear. Would you really want to live in such a world? Just think about it, no need to respond.
In fact I presumed the assault on Ukraine!!! I read the book of Timothy Snyder. And as a Management consultant i see the economical facts! And for it I see the totally wrong decision. Putin thinks in terms of 18. Century! This assault was totally ridiculous! 😂😂😂😂 The economic power of Russia is on the level of Spain!!!! 😂😂😂😂😂
I swear these people make this nonsense up. Let's make a deal. If he's right I'll come back and apologise and if he's proved wrong you come back and apologise. Really 'systemic shocks', are you for real the Germany and European economy is sinking faster than a lead balloon and Britain's economy is in the toilet. Neither could withstand a tremor never mind a shock and your waffling on about Russia whose economy is expected to grow some 3.5% this year!!! In comparison to Europe that's of gigantic proportions. I swear there's lies, damn lies and this channel.
Even before the war got underway it should have been obvious that Russia would be fine: they have all the natural resources they could possibly want, AND high tech skills going back many decades, AND strategic grandmasters AND tremendous toughness and experience of overcoming hardship. How could our leaders have been so stupid?
Mark Galeotti hasn’t said that. In fact he’s said and is saying that the regime could go for years. He’s saying it’s brittle, & depends what comes over the hill.
Not true. His ratings are very low. In any case, his downfall would come from a coup inside the Kremlin, not from popular discontent. That's why ratings don't matter.
@@michaelgill5644 The Levada statistical research center. It is regarded highly by western scientific community, it is the only Russian research facility which western commentators believe to be non-biased, even now during the war.
Wow, how persuasive. Bush the Lesser had something like 90% approval in the early days of his disastrous Iraq adventure. Nowadays every Republican in the US seems to have a strange amnesia about the years 2001-2008. It's a commonplace that populations unite behind their leadership during wartime -- for a while. When the war drags on to no apparent purpose, and prices rise, and basic goods become scarce, very often the heroic leader meets a very bloody end.
First of all, I'm neither a Putin fan nor supporter. But looking at the video title, let us not confuse aspirational hopes with reality. Just like some UA-cam videos and online comments that insisted that Ukraine would win the war against Russia soon after it began in early 2022, even after I've predicted a stalemate, it may be too early or even presumptuous to predict Putin's downfall has already started.
...the title of this clip (and some of the comments) remind me of those many 2016-2019 moments (somebody has put them together) in which a politician, analyst, expert, whatever... would announce sententiously "the beginning of the end" for the administration of that time...
I’m already skeptical of estimates/guesses of a country’s plans or actions (even by supposed experts) since you’ll never truly know what a country’s leadership is planning (even your own) without being in that inner circle that includes the president/ruler. This interview is very interesting in regards to an expert looking into how and why their guesses were wrong, regardless.
Comparing putin to adolf shitler you insult me and my Jewish ancestry who in fact were sent to an untimely death during ww2 by the invading nazi horde who had enabled their yukrainian collaborators.
Hitler had rearmed very fast in just a handfull of years. He had to take over his officer corps from the Reichswehr and the former Imperial Army. Most of the top echelon of officers were aristocrats, not Nazi party parvenues. And exactly those people organized the assassination attempt, since their prime loyalty was to the country and not the regime. Putin on the other hand is in power for over 20 years. Everybody in a higher position was promoted to his position by him. There might be some Russian patriots inside the army that put their country above the regime, but their number might be considerably lower than in Germany 1944.
I’m just a dumb undereducated midwesterner. But I got Trump right and I got Putin right. Putin was even more a sure thing because a lot of Trump was luck. Advisories made by cold studies are way less useful than looking at the person and who they are. Scholars just sit there and say “it can’t be that bad. How bad could it get? No. That won’t happen.”
The west needs to step up pressure on Russia instead of treating the issue as just another issue, it should be the main issue. We should increase investment in ammunition and military support but crucially we should warn Russia than any hit on civilian targets will be countered by the west with hits on strategic targets like naval vessels, logistics ubs, stockpiles of weapons or fuel etc.
Its not a matter of 'pressuring Russia'. The issue at hand is how yukraine has had a puppet government since 2014 controlled in part by the EU but in entirety by the US. The US undermined and overthrew a legitimate sitting government in yukraine in 2014. The citizens in eastern yukraine refused to acknowledge and accept the illegal coup that the US sponsored in kiev in 2014. When the US sponsored puppets took control of kiev those 'leaders' took military punitive action against the citizens in eastern yukraine, and have been doing so since 2014. Yukraine played an instrumental role in the bolshevik revolution and later western yukraine happily allied with the invading nazi horde. The ignorance of the average westerner on this matter is astounding, but it is, and to such a level that the lies that 'putin is an evil dictator' is easily absorbed.
@@ThunderAppeal you write a lot (of BS) about Ukraine and you can even not spell her name correctly.. And in the end it is not the amount of words that matters. Russia go back to the holes where you belong, leave Ukraine and all will be fine. Don’t worry about the criminals, they will be brought to justice, like the German nazis so their Russian copies. And there’s a lot of room in the scrapyard (or rather crap-yard) of history for the empire.
@@ThunderAppeal Ukraine's first victory came when protesters at Maidan square in Kyiv ousted a thuggish Russian-backed president, Viktor Yanukovych. In 4 years Yanukovych and his friends looted around $100bn from their own country. Leaned on by Putin, in 2013 Yanukovych abandoned Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU and moved to join its Russian-led rival. Yanukovych ordered police to shoot protesters who opposed him. In the chaos, bonds formed. For the first time at Maidan a huge number of people learned to trust each other, when the crowds swelled further, Yanukovych fled to Russia. So began Ukraine’s “Revolution of Dignity”.
It is funny to me how fundamentally different you seem to think russia is from the west. That whole discussion of "who can oppose Putin?".... just point by point there is equivalence for the working class and left opposition in the US, not same degrees or methods, but so bizarre how the affluent intellectual class, across the political spectrum, cannot see the hegemony they are the beneficiaries of.
“Having that on the list of requirements is just causing problems” - dude, international law and rules of war are causing you problems? Maybe your analysis is causing you your problems?
One thing though: If those closest to Putin didn't know whether or not he was going to attack, well then, how did American intelligence know? How did Biden know? They warned Zelensky and he didn't believe them (which is understandable). But those who do this for a living, shouldn't necessarily give themselves a break. They should try to figure out why American intelligence knew and they didn't. That's what I'd be doing if it were my profession.
Do you know, how exactly that warning was phrased? I would assume not. It could just as well have been: 'Hey Zelensky, everyone in the Kreml is in an uproar, because Putin *might* give the order, to attack you. Better prepare yourself for the worst'. You can't know, if they were actually sure and what that supposed knowledge was based upon, exactly. It's not like the Russians didn't know, that they were being watched. So whatever intel the CIA had, could also have been deliberately planted false Information.
Zelensky did tell Putin that he would stay neutral but that didn’t stop Putin from invading Ukraine. The Independent: "Zelensky concedes Ukraine will not join Nato ‘It’s a truth and it must be recognised,’ says Ukrainian leader": Zelensky has said Ukraine should accept it will not become a member of Nato, hinting at a potential key concession to Russia, which demanded such a guarantee before launching its deadly invasion.
All made sense until Mark got to Russian ambitions - or the lack of them, as Mark said - with regard to territorial gain in Europe. Here Mark showed that he was just a little bit out of his depth. And he really should read a paper that he comments upon before fundamentally ignoring the central hypothesis of the paper: that a victory or frozen conflict in Ukraine would free up the capacity of a wartime Russian economy to invade the Baltic States - especially if the lynchpin of NATO, the United States didn't step up.
Why would Putin want to invade Baltic states? For Ukraine situation was always very clear: plain and even more important access to warm sea. Let's be honest: Putin could much cheaper harass Baltics with some "freedom fighters". Similar to US in Afghanistan. I am sure some Stingers from Ukraine could be put in storage for few years and then handed to freedom fighters. Just to cement US-Baltics friendship.
We can't let an opportunity to take on flagrant bullshit like this. It's so ridiculous that even a a Putin hater has to see how pathetically wrong this guy's analysis is.
Loved Mark's response to why the experts got Putin so wrong. "Well ... Putin was wrong and we were right ... " Experts going do what experts gotta do. :) Great interview.
Well, when you have “experts” claiming they know what a country’s plans & future actions are without being in the direct inner circle that involves the president/ruler…..
@@RTC1655 From Wikipedia: "A phonograph record (also known as a gramophone record, especially in British English), a vinyl record (for later varieties only), or simply a record or vinyl is an analog sound storage medium in the form of a flat disc with an inscribed, modulated spiral groove. The groove usually starts near the periphery and ends near the center of the disc. For about half a century, the discs were commonly made from shellac, with earlier records having a fine abrasive filler mixed in. Starting in the 1940s, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) became common, the "vinyl records" of the late 20th century." Sometimes the needle would jump the track, and continue in a circle, not the spiral. Then it would play the same little bit of sound over and over and over. That was called a "stuck record." Mark Galeotti's posts on the Russian invasion of Ukraine have been a stuck record for many months now. It's a sad little side-light on a large evil invasion.
@TheDavidlloydjones well, that's what happens when the tactics don't change - the analysis remains static too Strategically, Russia is in a corner and can't really move. Irrespective of the outcome of the conflict tbh.
If Putin had started the war to annex only Dumbas Ukraine may have not being able to mobilize enough men and international help. But when he attacked the entire country all Ukrainians saw that as their fight and it was easy to get all of the country to respond.
Its just what happens when a bully picks a fight he cant win and drags a whole population along with him. If you want to see what this is ultimately going to lead to for Putin: google the last photos of Mussolini.
He's probably dead already. I'm not convinced by any of the visuals in about the last 8 months. All either known body doubles, as we can see from different facial warts, neck folds, and forehead- or distant poor quality camera work
There is no way for Russia to become happy and prosperous unless it pays all restitutions like Germany or Iraq. Russia tends to walk in circles in jistoricsl perspective.
Russia has never been happy and prosperous, at least not to the degree the west has. Sucking the world dry in a forceful, colonial manner is something Russia never did, so it is incredibly impressive Russia still manages to run their country like they do.
@@ianbardon8581 I have, and if there's anything wrong with the original comment, it's that it's too optimistic. Russia's a hopeless, backward society, regressing more each year. It will *never* be "happy and prosperous" in our lifetime, because it's filled with Russians and Russian mentality.
Hey everyone, welcome! My name is Dominik, I'm a researcher at a think tank, UA-camr and now a podcast host! If you share my slightly nerdy passion for geopolitics, security, conflicts and international relations, this is the podcast for you. So let me know what you thought about the interview and whether you agree with Mark or not, and make sure you subscribe because there are many more episodes coming up! (Including one with the author of the DGAP policy paper that we've discussed in this interview.)
Thank you, I will follow and see what you have to bring to the table. Having Mark on is always a winner in my book. Great work and great questions!
And if you spend your time interviewing the likes of Mark Galeotti you are just another cheap, sell-out, propagandist.
Congrats on getting Dr. Galeotti. Quite a catch for a small channel. But it's understandable: what expert wants to talk with the good-looking airheads on TV when they can have an intelligent discussion with someone like you? And you're even good looking. Get a green screen and a nice background and your next goal can be 25k viewers, then 100k. I believe in you!
Good questions, but follow-ups needed to cut through the spin that these guys put on their answers.
Please do not let the paid Russian bots waste your space - thanks.
comparing Putin to Napoleon is an insult to Napoleon.
Napoleon made it from France to Moscow. Putin couldn't even take Kharkiv, lol, it literally is like just over there across the border
@@Ealsante Napoleon lost hist army in Russia.
@@BojanPeric-kq9et but he dominated Europe and it needed multiple coalitions that fought him directly to beat him since he beat them all the time. He also conquered Moscow and then the weather beat him. He also fought himself and was in field and not hiding behind a super long table because he was scared to get sick. He also is and was considered a Military Genius and respected as such even by his enemies. Meanwhile Putin couldnt even take Kharkiv and is struggling against a Ukraine that is only half a** supported by the west with not enough and mostly old equipment. Putin is not even slightly close to Napoleon.
...it's funny that an absurd comparison elicits the emotional/naive responses below...
@@dannistor7294 also funny how facts are considered naive these days
46:22 As a German: I totally agree with Poland and Czech Republic. We need to get our shit together *even faster* 👌💪
Don't worry, US will keep you in check and then fairly soon China will start to make larger and larger bites to your technology export markets. In 10-15 years this war will be effectively forgotten, but it's economic consequences will stay forever.
Yeah ,you Germans need to put your shit together .
You have US troops in Germany since end of the WW2 ....
You lost your indepedence long time ago
This Mark guy seems rather clueless about how Russians think.
They calculate that they can occupy Balt's territory without much resistance, then fortify and all they have to do is repel any NATO's attacks to regain the Baltic states. They calculate those efforts to be disjointed and partly half-hearted when it comes to the top Europan countries.
All it takes for Russia to win strategically is for NATO article 5 response to be weak. After that NATO's reputation would be finished, even if in the end the Russian forces get expelled from Baltic states.
Russia is counting on NATO not being able to respond swiftly and decisively and they may have a point. They don't want to conquer the Balts, they want to show that NATO isn't really a cohesive pact. That is all they want to do and you don't have to have a super army to attempt that. The army just has to good enough to overwhelm the Balts and then the Russian can use their intelligence / foreign influence to dissuade the Western Europeans from embarking on a major military response.
I can see why the Russians would think that way. It does not matter if the West believes it's doable. It only matters that the Russians believe they are able to do it.
Viele Danke
Kanada 🇩🇪🇨🇦🇺🇦
The Russians displayed a modern captured German Tiger tank along with a WW2 captured German Tiger Tank in Red square. Germans should practice pattern recognition.
Happy, prosperous Russia??? As if the "West" didn't already invest there. I am a Finn, and I take a bit of an offence over the assessment that the "West" is acting in a hostile manner. There are many Russians living in Finland, enjoying the same social benefits as Finns. The border was closed because of Russian hybrid warfare against Finland (and the EU in a larger context). Defence doesn't equal hostility. Also, there has been some strategic land purchases in Finland over the years by a Russian oligarch with ties to Putin. These were islands near important shipping routes, communication cables, and Finnish military installations. The purchases were made with the pretence of "building resorts", but were later revealed to liken military bases. I hear naivety when someone tells me that Russia doesn't have sabotage and/or invasion plotted into their end game.
What a load of nonsense. We have had a steady stream of reports that Minsk was just a stop-gap so that NATO could arm and train Ukraine. The only people pretending that NATO are a defensive alliance are in or want to join NATO.
You better pray that the NATO plans for Russia don't include using Finland to weaken them.
Very well said & so obvious to anyone who’s been paying attention. The Finns know more than most about what’s at stake if one’s guard is let down which is why they have one of the finest & quickly ready, armies in the world.
women have no business in politics you can sell them anything .i have a finish friend and he tells me about Russians in Finland and has never had a problem with them its the western backed politicians manufacturing bs demonizing Russia
West has been treating Russia like a special need baby for way too long.
nothing more naive than the pretense that the evil nature of the "West" is not completely self evident.
This is a really superb interview. I can agree with much of it. However it is a matter of survival-economic, political, cultural, and moral-for Ukraine to take back Crimea. Otherwise Russia would have a permanent choke-hold over Azov and Ukraine’s free access to the Black Sea, as well as a permanent base from which to launch another offensive once it has regrouped. Therefore, among other things, foreign investment in Ukraine would be permanently stifled, as would Ukrainian morale. Therefore if Ukraine and the West are not all-in on retaking Crimea, at whatever the price, then Ukraine is lost, and with it the credibility of the West, which will have huge military and political repercussions worldwide, especially in east Asia. There simply is no viable choice.
Agree. And that means the Kerch Bridge must go too.
This is the reality.
yeah you got it - and retaking it will not happen
Ukraine is finished and this guy is off his rocker...
The loser doesn't get to magically reoccupy land it lost LOL.
Nobody understands Russia like these Ukranians, we need them in the EU and also NATO. Excellent interview. I love when an interviewer gives a person a good chance to respond well and fully to questions.
Nobody understood Germans better than Ukrainians too.
You pay for them then! No more US dollars
@@Sshooter444 USA is already giving that money to Israel who doesn't need it, send that money instead.
@@BojanPeric-kq9etyou are very wrong, Soviet Russians and Nazi Germans had the most supportive friendship and clear understanding of each other’s imperialistic goals.
1. Kremlin dictators helped Germans break the Treaty of Versailles in their Tank School near Kazan where future Nazi Generals improved their skills.
2. Ribbentrop Molotov pact signed by the Nazis and Soviets in Kremlin started German-Russian aggression on their neighbors.
3. German Soviet Commercial Agreement Russian raw materials fueled German death camps and their war machine up until the very morning of German attack on Russia- their ex-friends and partners in crimes.
Now, you want to mention insignificant person, Bandera, who was imprisoned by the Nazis for almost entire duration on WW2?
Russia was Nazis biggest friend and enabler and now idiot putin turned Russia into a Fascist State (I would not call Russia a Nazi state just yet but who knows where imbecile fuhrer putin is taking Russia).
@@BojanPeric-kq9et German Soviet Commercial Agreement was signed on Feb 11th, 1940.
Germany invaded Yugoslavia on April 6th, 1941.
Who do you think gave Germans raw materials (Manganese, oil, coal, etc) to invade Serbia???? It was definitely not Bandera from his prison cell in Nazi Germany.
War is always one way or the other born out of terrible miscalculation...and it rarely goes as planned.
Everybody has a plan until they miscalculate in war
Mike Tyson
Whilst Mark has a lot of great knowledge and insight, I wish he'd stop being fatalistic about Crimea. Providing Ukraine with what they need to take back Crimea - would be the clear cut defeat that would undermine Putin and his so-called Special Operation.
Exactly! If we actually stepped up somehow sooner than later this would be over sooner Inc crimea. We are a bunch of chicken cowards 😢
I think he's being realistic about how much the West is willing or able to send to Ukraine. This BS in the US Congress is disturbing. Our allies must be increasingly concerned with our commitment to them.
@markb8468 yes disturbing indeed
Ukraine is rich in reserves waiting for proper investment plus whilst crimea isn't maldives lol it does have potential with investment... Good weather spring to early autumn.
If we were invaded we generally so we don't have enough for ourselves then lol god help us all. Ukraine is basically dismantling Russian arms and who will buy Russian kit now 🤔 🙄 it's a no brainer to support and make em win for the west. I must be missing something.
You obviously think that more weapons will take back Crimea, but what is Ukraine going to use for troops to operate the weapons? They have had game changing weapons from over 32 countries and billions of dollars in aid, both weapons and money have disappeared. Zelenskys wife shopping in New York spent millions on jewellery. Ukraine is not known as the most corrupt country in Europe for no reason. You can make as many excuses and put as much spin on it as you like, but Ukraine is losing
@johnm7267 hello putter troll 🧌 😆
I think Ukraine will take crimea
Not really "Decoding Geopolitics" when you take all your information from a government/NGO/Institution sponsored source. Thought you might actually push back or even play devils advocate but as I see from your statement you are a " researcher for a think tank" so your job is to find material to back up the pre determined postions of whoever is paying for the reasearch or white paper. You are there to embolden the narrative and not to question it.
Well said.
You are right
Western geostrategists make no effing sense. Mr. Galeotti said that Russia gave up it's massive army in favor of mobile response capabilities. I share his observation. The Russian BTG's were not geared for the conflict in Ukraine. A lot of Western commentators say Russia planned the invasion and is going to invade other Central European countries. But the fact they didn't prepare their military for it speaks against it. To be fair, I have to exclude Mr. Galeotti, he never claimed that. Also the reasons that nobody attacked Wagner on their march, is wishful thinking in my opinion. Anybody who has any idea about escalation/de-escalation knows that shooting at people escalates things. Putin did everything right with that one. Also, no Russian official who is to be taken seriously, stated that Ukraine is going to be taken in three days. It would take longer just to traverse the territory. Mark Milley said that. The whole siege of Kiev narrative is total bs, they had only fifty thousand men at max there. Not nearly enough for a city of over three milion. In this moment, about as much men are attacking Avdiivka, a town of thirty-two thousand. We have statements from Zelensky's chief negotiator, Naftali Bennet and Turkish and German officials that the Russians and the Ukrainians already had a peace deal. The Russians at Kiev were there to exert pressure and were redeployed elsewhere after negotiations failed thanks to Boris Johnson. Western Analysts assume something and if it comes differently, they say the Russians miscalculated. Where do they get the idea that Putin thought the Ukrainians are going to welcome them with open arms? Maybe the FSB was not punished because they never claimed such a thing... Western Analysts, too many assumptions and nothing tangible.
What "Russians at Kiev"? Do you mean the special forces sent in there to behead the government? They weren't there to "exert pressure", they were there to imprison and kill the current regime. It is crystal clear that Putin and his gang thought they were engineering a coup, rather than an full invasion. They failed, and are now stuck in a morass in the south.
Thx, bro.
All of them are blabbing
Amazing how many trollers are appearing out of nowhere again
People do not support Ukraine. Only the distached western elite does. So.. "trollers" are actually just normal people not super into USA's constant political and military conquest and propaganda against Russia and China.. Imagine if the richest country on earth (USA) produces the nastiest propaganda against you for like.. 60 years in a row? How deep the indoctrination of the US people must have gotten.. Truly satanic in my opinion. Hopefully France remains smart and strong in its tactful opposition to the anglosaxon warmongers.
Crimea is Ukraine! No deal that gives control of the Black Sea to Russia.
No more.😅
Delusional in the extreme. Putin is going great.
No doubt thirty odd years ago Serbians never thought they would se Milosovic in a cell in The Hague, but that is where he ended up. Something that has always struck me as significant is the enthusiasm of the people of Rostov for Prigozhin as his forces set off for Moscow. Despite Galeotti’s call for a more coordinated Western strategy, his closing remarks seemed pessimistic and inclined to appeasement. There will never be a “happy prosperous democratic Russia”. That is wishful thinking, and if Ukraine’s security does depend on that, Ukraine will never be secure. Any compromise by the West when it comes a peace deal will be seen as weakness to be exploited. Only a military defeat or regime collapse will convince the occupants of the Kremlin of the strategic futility of threatening its western neighbours. Putin, and many in Russia, do have imperial ambition, ambition that does not end with Ukraine. For Russian propagandist calling for a march on Berlin or the nuking of London, the closing of the Finnish border is small beer that will barely create a ripple.
EXACTLY!
The ceausescus is even more striking. This is how it works in dictatorships. Everybody pretends to love you and makes up whatever statistics are needed to pretend everything is wonderful as long as you hold a gun to their head; but when the facade crumbles everybody says they always hated you. It’s like the way a guinnea pig behaves when they are sick; they just pretend everything is fine until things get so awful and they are so close to death that they can’t keep pretending.
The richest land and by far the biggest in the universe and Putin wants more land ..lol lol western media is a comedy Central..
The only thing Russia cares for their people in Ukraine who's is in millions...haha I get good laugh with people who think they know everything but nothing.
Well said. How many times do we have to learn that if despotism is tolerated in any way it simply grows worse?
I still can’t believe Milosovich's Srebrenica massacre. Because prominent Moscovian propagandists such as Solovyov, Skabeyeva, Simonyan, but especially Dmitry Peskov speak for Putin’s wishes and dreams - otherwise Putin would shut them down - the West should not regard them as entertainment but taken to heart; I saw a graphic on one of their channels showing a banner during a pro-Moscow rally saying that “Russia has no borders,” with the implication, in my opinion, that Putin regards European and NATO borders as fictional, hence no need to honor them and, in fact and specifically, that the wayward Ukraine is a fake nation; fundamentally part of Moscow's culture and its territory. Solovyov and his friends spoke about invading Spain, GB, Germany, and capturing Alaska, all of which gives fairly accurate insight into the long term plans swirling in Putin’s brain.
Delusional wishful thinking...
Nonsense.
This is a comic.😂
Wishful thinking and wrong of course it had to be a Brit
I am a Brit, and I have noticed this too: all of the most uninformed russophobes (and sinophobes) on the internet have British accents.
@@andyjones1982 Yeah.. they're the biggest anti-Russian warmongers together with the USA.. so that isn't surprising.
Downfall? Putin?
What drugs are you taking?
He's brainwashed
Not addicted to Psychotic drugs. Like Putin.
@@michaelgill5644 If he is, it would be insanely impressive to guide such a tough to lead country in the face of an opponent that has produced hateful propaganda for like.. 60 years? Crazy. And that nation also being the richest nation on earth with 25+ allies. Dang.. that's crazy. Russia is basically fighting a 1 v 20 and Putin is still doing well after 2+ years. To anyone not hyper indoctrinated by western propaganda, that is extremely impressive.
I don't think Mark is very wrong, but he's still projecting the Western mentality too much on Muscovites and putin.
Great interview. I like the cautious optimism of Mark Galeotti, only on one point I am more pessimistic - I do not believe that Russia will become a European state again in the foreseeable future, apart from the fact that it lies to a lesser extent on the European continent. It has once again become clear that essential elements are missing that would be necessary for a democracy: civil society, rule of law, fight against corruption, free speech, separation of powers, etc. I’m afraid this dream is over for a long time.
Russia will for sure become a European state "again" when Russians will overthrow Putin on a Maidan, violate their own constitution and laws (like Ukrainians did in 2014, and like Europeans usually do, instead of voting, they overthrow their leaders), suppress anyone who goes against Russian Maidan (because that's democratic), fire all Russian state media officials (and put them in prison) and then hire NEW state media officials who will broadcast a pro-US, pro-NATO narrative (suppress anyone who criticizes that), give up their nuclear weapons, start war mongering against China (for the benefit of US), lower the gas prices so that dear partners in the west can buy it for cheap or even for free., allow LBGT parades and start drag shows in their schools, educate kids about LBGT. Then Russia will become EUROPEANS.
😂 100% never going to culturally be European, Singapore and New Zealand have better chance
@@happyhappynuts What I mentioned above is not culture though, it's ANTI-culture and politics. ANTI-European politics, while trying to convince the population that that is somehow "European".
Russia has no interest in being European, that went a long time ago
Do you know how long it took Germany to became "European state" again? Less than 15 years.
Rule of law? European countries, like NATO members, had break international law many times.
Free speech? That is shaky.
The Analysis of Putin should include a Sociopath that serves his Ego and Hubris as an extension of Russia's Geopolitical Goals regardless of International Law and Norms.
You don't think world leaders are sociopaths or have psychopathic tendencies?
No... That is what a Free Democracy is for .....electing representatives from the regions to contribute to the running of a Country.. Not a Authoritarian Dictator like Putin .Trudeau isn't a sociopath , not the leaders of any Scandinavian Country, New Zealand Australia,Biden isn;t a Murdering Sociopath Any Free Liberal Democracy,,
@@iosefaandrews2351True. I'd say some more than others, though.
You a psychologist now? Experts coming out of the wall now all with their Russophobic harebrained theories
@@johnm7267 lol - nothing Russophobic about it.
This is hilarious! Hard to believe anyone listens to this guy. Good grief!!
Cnn
The whole weight of NATO? NATO hasn’t even started besides weapons deliveries, not even as NATO, but some individual countries that are really holding back …
When I first heard of the Russian invasion, the direct airborne attack on Kiev airport, and the armoured thunder-run thereof I thought it was game over. And despite what all the Monday morning experts are now saying, that's what they were all saying at the time. But warfare has always been 80% will and tenacity (morale) contribution to success. Even Napoleon said this many times. The Germans have fully invaded France two times: 1870 and 1940. They picked their timing when France was politically weak and fractured. What the Russians have failed in is their timing, Ukraine was never stronger than in 2019.
1914 as well. Three invasions of France by Germany
I feel like I am watching this bizarre play entitled…..”Russia shoots itself in the foot and falls on face”.
Popcorn anyone?
to Mark's comment at 43:10 - Putin is certainly not stupid. But he is having the same issues all dictators have. If You foster a culture of non-dissent, you loose touch with reality. When nobody dares to tell You about reality, for fear of falling from a high window or drinking tea, You cannot improve whatever is failing. This is also why dictatorships never innovate. This was the ultimate reason, why the soviet block was stuck in the 1940s. Just ask yourself: what is a major innovation, that came from a dictatorship?
Hm. Just to play devil's advocate: The Germans were doing pretty well in that regard under Hitler. The race for the atom bomb was a really close thing, for example. And that was even with losing several eminent scientists to the USA, because they happened to not fit into or agree with their racist ideology. There were lots and lots of weapons and aircraft and submarine related inventions. Great and not so great discoveries in chemistry, like Polyurethane and Sarin gas. Particle board. Methadone. To name just a few.
Dictatorship or not, there's no reason to assume, that that regime would have failed, if Hitler hadn't invaded Russia. If he had listened to his Generals and not bitten off more than his army could chew, a good part of Europe would probably have ended up under German occupation for a while.
Although there's no telling, if whoever would have followed him, would have managed to hold all of that together for long, afterwards, of course.
It's too bad that Putin, who is well aware of German history of course (he lived and worked in the DDR for a number of years as a young man), can't seem to see the parallels in history here and is trying to establish his own 'Third Reich', whatever the cost.
@@raraavis7782 very true. However, most of the science and engineering was done before 1940 during a time when Hitler still delegated a lot of authority to Himmler, Göring and Rust. What makes Putin different is that most of his cronies are in it for the money. Ensuring even more to keep the truth from Putin so they can continue to line their pockets. See for example the vaunted T-14 Armata tank or the fabled new combat gear for the army that for some funny reason never came to be. Aside from a couple of prototype level pieces lacking far behind specs. And then of course, there is no industry besides raw materials and all of the high-tech required for the military was imported from the west. Take night vision or targeting optics made in France for example. Hitler was certainly in the same quagmire from late 1941, when he began to avoid bad news. But he started out from a different place, being proud of what German scientist were capable of doing only a short time after WW1
Every dictatorial regime believes itself to be invincible, and yet every dictatorial regime falls in the end.
And the USA is such a democracy that want lock up it political opposition. ,🙄
Bill Clinton had similar issues. Bush too.
No one can know what the future will hold for any person or situation, no matter how much of an expert they are on some subject. It you look at so many of the predictions experts make about all kinds of topics it is surprising how many times they are wrong. Why? In my opinion, it is because human behavior is more complex than we think it is. Past patterns of behavior usually predict future behaviors, but not always. There will always be outliers, people who shift away from the typical middle of the road and take a different path. Putin is an unpredictable person, he went from being an ordinary KBG agent to becoming a dictator of his country, no one saw that ever happening. OnlyPutin knows what he will do next.
Oh yes this dictator that looks after the Country and it people.
Unlike USA who don't care and just want your tax 🤑
1) If the West had given Ukraine ALL it needed for this war the outcome would already be totally different. 2) A guy who was admittedly wrong about Putin invading Ukraine should perhaps not make predictions on what will happen in regards to the Baltics, etc. 3) Hoping for a prosperous democratic Russia is wishful thinking which has no basis in reality.
The West needs to bolster up to be able to defend itself and stop the constant wondering about what Russia might or might not do. The West should lead with a clear strategy and not just simply wait everything out and react far too late to every single challenge.
Well said.
The West should take of the west and stop dreaming of plunder, it's never ever going to happen.
Then you ruin leftovers of your economy.
Look... USofA enter WW2 with the debt of 40% GDP and ended with the debt of 130% GDP. Now they has debt of 130% GDP before the eventual war. You are done, bro. Theres no "mighty West" anymore. Where all those empires? Gone. Show me your armies, show me society ready to sacrifice itself.
Sit quiet and we'll let you live. From Russia with love, b***s
Are you really serious. If The Russia army did what the USA did to Iraq and Vietnam. You won't be there to make this statement.
So you might be a aPro Ukraine guy but don't rush your mind to think that Russia would have lost .
@@lemagnifikyves9533bs
Well. Yeah. Putin has outlasted many 🇺🇸 presidents. So i wouldn't hold my hopes on a think tank adviser
Outlasted 😂😂is that his objective 😂😂that's the problem
It is called Elections maybe your country should try them once every 4 years.
@@raymondparnell439 "Outlasted" in the sense of fostering lasting political and societal stability. Russia and China are rather incredible in this regard from a western viewpoint.
Wow, you've managed to out-stupid all the other Putin scutboys in this thread, congrats! You *are* aware, aren't you, that US presidents can't occupy the office for two terms, right? Unlike Russia, we don't have a president for life (though Trump would like to change that, of course).
@@Habib_Osman That must be why the Russian population has been in steep decline throughout the president-for-life's terms, i.e., there are a lot fewer of them than there were 20 years ago, and 20 years from now there'll be fewer still. That must be why Russian science and technology are nowadays a sad joke, why they can't produce a single thing the world wants other than commodities. You Putin shills just get more and more delusional, pathetic.
Hahahahahahaha, right , Putin's downfall,Hahahahahahaha.
I meant any modern tech is now 2x of what it was.
Or you could always use Russian tech lmfao
No further territorial / hegemonic ambitions ? What about Putin's recent speech ?
What did you hear in his recent speech that makes you think Russia will attack other countries?
@@lockbert99 well, if you read his speech for yourself at the meeting organized by the ROC , you will be aware that he described Russia as being in an exestential fight with " the west" for, not only the freedom of Russia, but the whole world. He claimed that Russia was going to create a new, more equitable, world order, which would not be possible without a strong, soverign Russia, (presumably with Russia at the head of it !). It depends on what you think that means. He already invaded Ukraine to kill and maim, presumably to further these aims, so my assesment, is that, if he has any kind of success in Ukraine, he will continue to expand Russian hegomony by force, as he has done in Ukraine. It seems all too reminiscent of 1939 with that new world order which was intended to last for a thousand years. What's your interpretation ? A new era of peace and prosperity ?, now where did I hear that before ? миру битe, планема жит, ! A new world order ? commencing with invasion, death, destruction, and increased weapons production ? Your call ?
@@ericwillis777 The new world order he and China and what is called the "Global South" want is "multi-polar", meaning it isn't "unipolar" where the USA dominates everything (since the collapse of the Soviet Union). He invaded Ukraine because the Russians consider NATO in Ukraine unacceptable as western leaders have long known (with the NATO leader USA not caring).
@@lockbert99hey, I thought you were going to set me right and demonstrate how peaceloving and progressive Russia is. I guess not. Forgetting Russia's domination of Eastern Europe after WW2, just look at who Russia's allies are in their " New World Order" - North Korea, and Iran ! - Surely, even for the most ardent Russian supporter, that says it all. A new world order, swinging on a new "Axis of Evil" - Stalin, Hitler, Napoleon, and Pol Pot would be pleased to see that psychopathic tyrany is still in vogue !
@@ericwillis777 the bit that you are almost uniquely unable to understand, being an Anglo like me, and unlike almost every other country in this world, is that Russia, unlike the USA or the UK, has been invaded by foreign armies again and again over the centuries, above all their war with Nazi Germany, in which our part was really a sideshow. Russia paid dearly to win that war, and they don't anything like it to ever happen again. All of Russia, not just Putin. The agreement at the end of the Cold War, when Russia released its hold over eastern Europe, was that NATO would not expand to the east. They believe they are in a defensive war (a pre-emptive strike, but still defensive in nature) against the West, who REFUSED to listen to their reasonable concerns about NATO expansion and therefore, apparently, have hostile intent.
Would you like to be succeded by Medvedev.
Or Zirinovski.
In present time putin id the only guy you can talk reasonably.
But,he will protect russian interest firmly.
That makes him bad bad guy ,indeed.
You guys in the west are crying for another Yeltsin.
Not yet.
Protecting Russian interests is bad and "imperialist". But the west protecting their interests is good and rational. Why? Because the west says so.
You need to look at the other RuSSia war being ignited in Bosna right now .This one is going to be very serious and a repeat of 1991-95 . RuSSia is benefitting from the Israel conflict and a new conflict in Bosna is hoped by Putin will break EU will to support Ukraine.
The foreverwar is not fault, it is on purpose.
The problem is, as I see it, that all of this puts pressure on the Russian economy. So much money spent on internal security and other stability measures, is making it much worse.
You should change your pusher
....the great American self-deception!!!!
I am trying to reconcile Galeottis' claim that the Russian military will be financially unsustainable very soon, with his separate claim that Russia remains a permanent challenge for Ukraine.
He probably means that they will not be able to fund this invasion for very long, but that they might become a threat in 5-10 years.
The Russian economy is in "tatters" growing at only 4%.... What a shame 🙂
He's talking out of his rear end
I think his point is that the Russian economy as a whole will become financially unsustainable but Russia will just pump all the resources it has into the war. Simultaneously, Russia has far greater manpower which we can already see is becoming a growing issue despite Western support for Ukraine. First point in particular matters I think because, even if Russian economy does become unsustainable for the majority, the majority actually has very little capacity to change the system
Look at Chechnya. Russia demonstrated that defeats don't mean anything if the country they attacked doesn't have security guarantees. They'll be back again and again.
well the Russians tried to do radical military reforms when Putin appointed former general Anatoly Serdyukov in 2007 to reform the Russian army away from the Soviet doctrinal model to something like the American one. However it failed and Serdyukov was deposed and arrested for corruption in 2012 and replaced by Sergei Shoigu who promptly stopped the reforms and massively expanded the Russian military. Shoigu lavisly equipped the Russian military and created teh battalion tactical groups which in their view woulud make the Russian army flexible and powerful enough to take on the west. However the soviet style doctrine remained, teh centralized inflexible command and control and the bad corruption remained. So yah the Russian army looked formidable before the war turned out to be a incompetent bumbling giant when war with Ukraine happened. Russia was thinking of fighting the war in Ukraine like it was Desert storm Russian style. but instead the Russians were fighting the Ukraine war like it was the 1930s USSR. Notice the Russians seem to have reverted back to using the old Soviet style divisional structures for their units with teh battalion tactical groups being discarded. and tactics seem to be reverting back to the 1930s style soviet way of fighting, (eg. massive artillery bombardments followed by a massive surge of infantry and tanks. I think in going with Mark said about the Russians using history to frame discussions of reform in the Russian army, they looked at the failure of the cold war Soviet style tactics saw it failed and they had no other ideas, and going towards NATO style reforms is absolutely out of the questions since NATO is now seen as the devil. So they are reverting to 1930s style Soviet tactics since they have no other ideas. Also yes the Russians are getting better at drone warfare and ECM. but those are exceptions, the Russian army maybe massive now will lots of men and tanks, but their training still sucks, motivations and morale bad to very bad, leadership sucks command and control centralized sucks and inflexible, along with lots of Putin micromanaging. PUtin's purge of the Russian military after the Prigozhin mutiny means the Russian officers are even worse quality than ever , orders are followed to the letter with no deviation staffed by yes men incompetent corrupt officers. That is why the Russians cannot do multiple big offensives since their logistics will fall out, since their command control is inflexible. That is why the front line has not much changed since Dec 2022. meanwhile the Russians have lost 350K casualties so far and the Ukrainians are still fighting hard and exacting a lot of Russian casualties in the process. The smaller less firepower Ukrainian army holding back the supposed 2nd strongest army in the world the Russian army, is telling and the Ukrainians recaptured 50 percent of the territory they lost to Russia. Its that level of incomptenence and ineptitude of leadership int he Russian army and gov that has led to this.
? doesn't sound like a smart idea! USA's strategy doesn't work well in europe, tanks in europe for example need to be smaller due to europes terrain. so, it's a great thing the reform failed! Lol. Also, Russia's current artillery heavy strategy is working really well at killing/destroying without being killed/destroyed. Imagine a 7:1 artillery advantage.. for every shell you fire 7 come raining back.. dang that's scary.
Plus.. the reform wouldn't have mattered anyway. The battlefield has radically evolved into an entirely new direction anyway.. so, doesn't look like it would have mattered at all.
I'm Norwegian. Anything else than total return of Ukrainian land pisses me of. That anyone can suggest this are messed up. Russia must never earn anything on their aggressive war.
Ukraine has no land, it’s all Rus territory
Not bothered by anything happening on the field, are we?
I know! they completely ignored the historic losses Russia has suffered over the last month.
Russia has always fought that way. They take losses and terrain. Ukraine takes losses but hardly terrain and the little they gained, they are loosing now. As I said, not bothered by the situation on the terrain. @@jchase8223
@@jchase8223 you mean imaginary.
I highly recommend this video of you want a glimpse into the delusional and self deceptive thinking of the West in regards to Russia. 👍💯
Ukraine should not join NATO. NATO should join Ukraine.
Can't forget that if someone other than putin had been given the reins none of the is would be happening. There is stil hope that when he's gone Russia wil return to sanity.
It is Russia which created Putin, not the opposite.Russia is always the same and Russia's neighbours know it best.
Yeah the USA would have walked in and took over like the norm.
Wake up pal it ain't happening
Putin is a product of Russian culture, Russian thinking. Russians have spent the last two decades passively watching Putin and the siloviki consolidate their power, and they did *nothing*. You can *always* count on the Russians to fall back to their standard "we can't do anything/woe is us/somebody please save us" mindset. That society is hopeless.
I am time and again so amazed and bewildered when those dudes always chatter about someone's "downfall", yet never ever seem to reckon with the collapse of their own shitty system.
I don't think the Russians will be in a hurry to invade Finland after what you did with them in world war 2 and now Finland has one of best trained army's in the world
Correct they are not interested, Russia is big enough, has all the resources, which what the bully wants.
@@ianbardon8581 Which nation doesn't want resources?
@@ianbardon8581And Russia will obviously not invade Finland now it has joined NATO. Would be really dumb! So Russia won't do that.
The Finns have a highly advanced military with a proper chain of command, they are also a highly educated and sophisticated nation. Don't be fooled by its size. This Nordic powerhouse would utterly smoke the Russian rabble of an "army"...
@@frankmcloughlin7076 Ok.. I guess in this information war everyone has got to be a little edgy.. understandable. But we are entirely in agreeance. Russia will not invade Finland, because Finland in in NATO. It would just be a really dumb move. Right? What propaganda often fails to capture is that nations don't do things out of the blue randomly. Nations do things because they are the clear best choice for them at that moment in time.
So.. Russia won't accidentally invade Finland whilly nilly, get attacked back by NATO and think: whoopsies!
That's not how it goes.
And it is also not a question of:
Insane maniac Putin is dreaming of greater Russia again and for that reason suddenly attacks Finland. That's also, not how it works.
Things did kinda work this way in the middle ages. When european nations were ruled by a single king, Yes, this kind of stuff was actually possible. But things changed a little bit since 1200 AD for Russia surprisingly! It's definitely not the 1200's anymore that's for sure :)
Purely wishful thonking! Total BS❗️
Extremely insightful interview and analysis
I think it is a fair assumption that Ukraine has NO territorial ambitions towards Russia. Therefore the key to this situation is to give Ukraine a sufficiently strong DEFENCE that will permenantly DETER RUSSIA from the agreed borders of the Minsk agreement. The two weapns that would achieve this end are LONG RANGE MISSILES, that could destroy military supply routes into the occupied areas (especially the Kirsch Bridge) and an AIR DEFENCE that would keep Russian drones and missiles out of Ukrainian skies.
Putin's regime could then 'do whatever it likes' without consequese to anybody else. Russia has NEVER HAD DEOCRACY, and probably never will (strong parallels with Stalin and Ivan described here). Putins duplicitous, mendacious and totally untrustworthy conduct makes peace negotiations and diplomatic protocols IMPOSSIBLE. The only direction for the future is strong and permenant DETERANCE.
The Minsk Agreements? The big lies? Surely you jest.
Minsk Agreements WERE WITNESSED by world officials. YOURS@@Ebergerud ARE THE RUSSIAN LIES TOLD ABOUT THE AGREEMENTS - thanks!
But Ukraine did not comply with the Minsk agreements and continued to shell the DPR for 10 years.
Political Science is not the strong suit of the average citizen. Democracy with no Judicial oversight in a viable CONSTITUTION TO HOLD A REPUBLIC TOGEATHER IS MOB RULE WITH NO FUTURE.
FRANCE DID IT , WE DID IT(THE USA) USEING HISTORICAL TEMPLATES A DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC SHOULD NOT BE
TOO DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE FOR AN EDUCATED PEOPLE. A MODICUM OF SOBRIETY WOULD BE NECESSARY IN RUZZYS
CASE ALONG WITH TRUE REPRESENTATION OF ITS CITIZENS. THIS IS WHERE I CAN SAY DICTATORSHIPS ARE DEAD ENDS
INEVITABLY, NOT HELPFULL, EVER!
That was because the DPR imported Russian tanks which THREATENED Ukraine. If Gorbachov had been the ruler of Russia, it would have been possible to reach adiplomatic sttlement with largely Russian DPR!@@UncleMort
You had me until the end. 700 years of history suggest it's not possible to effect the change in thinking you suggest. IMO it's better to knock their military industrial complex back to the Bronze Age. No guarantee the outcome would be better, but I believe the odds are higher.
How?
BINGO. Russia has Never been known for much of anything, if not its military. And THAT mostly centered around their psychopathic willingness to send massive numbers of their most recently conquered peoples, in waves of cannon fodder to take the NEXT small territory. Russia would have ceased to exist long ago using those ancient tactics, if not for the Russian winter which saved it several times over history. But now, weather and distance means very little in modern warfare. Its actually hurting Russia more than Ukraine today, because thanks to NATO and the USA Ukraine is better equiped to deal with harsh winters than poorly equiped Russia is.
Wouldn’t that kill many civilians?
Yeah! How bad could nuclear war be?
@@robgrey6183 Are you sure Muscovy's nuclear weapons work? They're high-maintenance items, what are the odds the upkeep budget got turned into a superyacht?
He doesn't look to be struggling to me.
Far from it,😅
But he is. Apoplexy over the landing ship destruction apparently. A few more doses of that will see him a nervous wreck.
@@rogerphelps9939 Lol.. dang. Do you truly believe that? Putin with shaking hands looking worried.. I can't even imagine how much anti-Russian propaganda one needs to ingest to have such fantastical beliefs. I wish I was able to live in a fantasy world like that!
Putin did a live 4 hour interview on national TV without any teleprompters with constant random questions from audience members. The camera looked into the public many times, so there were actually NO Teleprompters for 4 hours. Biden literally struggles with a 10 minute speech while making use of teleprompters with a huge letter size. Crazy stuff.
Yes of course Putin’s government is on the verge of collapse 🤣🤣🤣
The combination of a failed war abroad and a brittle, strained system at home is increasing the likelihood of some sort of implosion inside Russia.
😂😂😂
Those of you in the West rooting for Putin ought to understand that he is not a Western-style conservative. He is not fighting against liberal ideology, he is fighting against the Western civilization. Just imagine how miserable you would be in a world ruled by Putin: no freedoms, no liberties, no human dignity, total police state, poverty and an atmosphere of fear. Would you really want to live in such a world? Just think about it, no need to respond.
@@ГлебВерховский-п2р oh you mean the kind of police state that western governments are implementing?
@@christianevanherck6023 I think you need to start getting your news from somewhere else
Very interesting
In fact I presumed the assault on Ukraine!!!
I read the book of Timothy Snyder.
And as a Management consultant i see the economical facts!
And for it I see the totally wrong decision.
Putin thinks in terms of 18. Century!
This assault was totally ridiculous! 😂😂😂😂
The economic power of Russia is on the level of Spain!!!!
😂😂😂😂😂
I swear these people make this nonsense up. Let's make a deal. If he's right I'll come back and apologise and if he's proved wrong you come back and apologise.
Really 'systemic shocks', are you for real the Germany and European economy is sinking faster than a lead balloon and Britain's economy is in the toilet. Neither could withstand a tremor never mind a shock and your waffling on about Russia whose economy is expected to grow some 3.5% this year!!! In comparison to Europe that's of gigantic proportions. I swear there's lies, damn lies and this channel.
Even before the war got underway it should have been obvious that Russia would be fine: they have all the natural resources they could possibly want, AND high tech skills going back many decades, AND strategic grandmasters AND tremendous toughness and experience of overcoming hardship. How could our leaders have been so stupid?
A report from a parallel reality...
This guy tells us for 2 years that Putin is over lol. With such predictions I would rather take my chances at lottery. :)
Mark Galeotti hasn’t said that. In fact he’s said and is saying that the regime could go for years. He’s saying it’s brittle, & depends what comes over the hill.
@@L_Smith69 no he didn’t
I can sense lots of projection
Galeotti is talking BS
How many Russians does Putin plan on losing to satisfy his ego?
Interesting but very off the mark on key issues
Ya think? Why can russia accept nato expansion? Nato is peaceful if you ignore the last 10 waaaars.
Excellent questions and captivating that compelled me to watch to the end
Far from a downfall Putin's approval ratings are the highest ever.
These clowns can't see beond their nose end.
Not true. His ratings are very low. In any case, his downfall would come from a coup inside the Kremlin, not from popular discontent. That's why ratings don't matter.
Who says so (putin)?
@@michaelgill5644 The Levada statistical research center. It is regarded highly by western scientific community, it is the only Russian research facility which western commentators believe to be non-biased, even now during the war.
Wow, how persuasive. Bush the Lesser had something like 90% approval in the early days of his disastrous Iraq adventure. Nowadays every Republican in the US seems to have a strange amnesia about the years 2001-2008. It's a commonplace that populations unite behind their leadership during wartime -- for a while. When the war drags on to no apparent purpose, and prices rise, and basic goods become scarce, very often the heroic leader meets a very bloody end.
First of all, I'm neither a Putin fan nor supporter.
But looking at the video title,
let us not confuse aspirational hopes with reality.
Just like some UA-cam videos and online comments that insisted that
Ukraine would win the war against Russia soon after it began in early 2022,
even after I've predicted a stalemate,
it may be too early or even presumptuous
to predict Putin's downfall has already started.
What a golden interview! Such interesting person that was interviewed
Wonderful discussion, hard topics discussed thoughtfully
...the title of this clip (and some of the comments) remind me of those many 2016-2019 moments (somebody has put them together) in which a politician, analyst, expert, whatever... would announce sententiously "the beginning of the end" for the administration of that time...
32k views with 575 subscribers bruh
I’m already skeptical of estimates/guesses of a country’s plans or actions (even by supposed experts) since you’ll never truly know what a country’s leadership is planning (even your own) without being in that inner circle that includes the president/ruler. This interview is very interesting in regards to an expert looking into how and why their guesses were wrong, regardless.
Overthrowing Putin reminds me of the failed attempt to assassinate Hitler at the Wolf's Lair.
Comparing putin to adolf shitler you insult me and my Jewish ancestry who in fact were sent to an untimely death during ww2 by the invading nazi horde who had enabled their yukrainian collaborators.
Hitler had rearmed very fast in just a handfull of years. He had to take over his officer corps from the Reichswehr and the former Imperial Army. Most of the top echelon of officers were aristocrats, not Nazi party parvenues. And exactly those people organized the assassination attempt, since their prime loyalty was to the country and not the regime.
Putin on the other hand is in power for over 20 years. Everybody in a higher position was promoted to his position by him. There might be some Russian patriots inside the army that put their country above the regime, but their number might be considerably lower than in Germany 1944.
I’m just a dumb undereducated midwesterner. But I got Trump right and I got Putin right. Putin was even more a sure thing because a lot of Trump was luck. Advisories made by cold studies are way less useful than looking at the person and who they are. Scholars just sit there and say “it can’t be that bad. How bad could it get? No. That won’t happen.”
The west needs to step up pressure on Russia instead of treating the issue as just another issue, it should be the main issue. We should increase investment in ammunition and military support but crucially we should warn Russia than any hit on civilian targets will be countered by the west with hits on strategic targets like naval vessels, logistics ubs, stockpiles of weapons or fuel etc.
Its not a matter of 'pressuring Russia'.
The issue at hand is how yukraine has had a puppet government since 2014 controlled in part by the EU but in entirety by the US.
The US undermined and overthrew a legitimate sitting government in yukraine in 2014.
The citizens in eastern yukraine refused to acknowledge and accept the illegal coup that the US sponsored in kiev in 2014.
When the US sponsored puppets took control of kiev those 'leaders' took military punitive action against the citizens in eastern yukraine, and have been doing so since 2014.
Yukraine played an instrumental role in the bolshevik revolution and later western yukraine happily allied with the invading nazi horde.
The ignorance of the average westerner on this matter is astounding, but it is, and to such a level that the lies that 'putin is an evil dictator' is easily absorbed.
@@ThunderAppeal Thanks for the disinformation. Reported.
@@ThunderAppeal you write a lot (of BS) about Ukraine and you can even not spell her name correctly.. And in the end it is not the amount of words that matters. Russia go back to the holes where you belong, leave Ukraine and all will be fine. Don’t worry about the criminals, they will be brought to justice, like the German nazis so their Russian copies. And there’s a lot of room in the scrapyard (or rather crap-yard) of history for the empire.
@@ThunderAppeal Ukraine's first victory came when protesters at Maidan square in Kyiv ousted a thuggish Russian-backed president, Viktor Yanukovych. In 4 years Yanukovych and his friends looted around $100bn from their own country. Leaned on by Putin, in 2013 Yanukovych abandoned Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU and moved to join its Russian-led rival. Yanukovych ordered police to shoot protesters who opposed him. In the chaos, bonds formed. For the first time at Maidan a huge number of people learned to trust each other, when the crowds swelled further, Yanukovych fled to Russia.
So began Ukraine’s “Revolution of Dignity”.
BS, so you want ww3 🤡
It is funny to me how fundamentally different you seem to think russia is from the west. That whole discussion of "who can oppose Putin?".... just point by point there is equivalence for the working class and left opposition in the US, not same degrees or methods, but so bizarre how the affluent intellectual class, across the political spectrum, cannot see the hegemony they are the beneficiaries of.
Very interesting! Thank you very much!
“Having that on the list of requirements is just causing problems” - dude, international law and rules of war are causing you problems? Maybe your analysis is causing you your problems?
Lots of Russian Bots on this site 🤔
"Lots of people who disagree with my ill-informed opinion and are therefore not human and probably Russian."
@@andyjones1982 Russian sock puppets clearly target this site as a standing policy of IRA. andyjones is no doubt one of them.
No they are live
@@ianbardon8581 OK Bot
@@snakeplisken4119lots of Western moron's, who should keep to their own business and border's.
Only the grim reaper can deal with Putler, otherwise the title of this video is clickbait.
Absolutely😅
Do you know how dealt with Bushtler?
One thing though: If those closest to Putin didn't know whether or not he was going to attack, well then, how did American intelligence know? How did Biden know? They warned Zelensky and he didn't believe them (which is understandable). But those who do this for a living, shouldn't necessarily give themselves a break. They should try to figure out why American intelligence knew and they didn't.
That's what I'd be doing if it were my profession.
wise.
Do you know, how exactly that warning was phrased? I would assume not. It could just as well have been: 'Hey Zelensky, everyone in the Kreml is in an uproar, because Putin *might* give the order, to attack you. Better prepare yourself for the worst'.
You can't know, if they were actually sure and what that supposed knowledge was based upon, exactly.
It's not like the Russians didn't know, that they were being watched. So whatever intel the CIA had, could also have been deliberately planted false Information.
Zelensky did tell Putin that he would stay neutral but that didn’t stop Putin from invading Ukraine. The Independent: "Zelensky concedes Ukraine will not join Nato ‘It’s a truth and it must be recognised,’ says Ukrainian leader": Zelensky has said Ukraine should accept it will not become a member of Nato, hinting at a potential key concession to Russia, which demanded such a guarantee before launching its deadly invasion.
@@christianevanherck6023 maybe the loser ought to have stopped bombing schools in donetsk then, if he was such a peacemonger.
@@Ravi9A You should provide a fact-based argument, if you have one.
All made sense until Mark got to Russian ambitions - or the lack of them, as Mark said - with regard to territorial gain in Europe. Here Mark showed that he was just a little bit out of his depth. And he really should read a paper that he comments upon before fundamentally ignoring the central hypothesis of the paper: that a victory or frozen conflict in Ukraine would free up the capacity of a wartime Russian economy to invade the Baltic States - especially if the lynchpin of NATO, the United States didn't step up.
Why would Putin want to invade Baltic states?
For Ukraine situation was always very clear: plain and even more important access to warm sea.
Let's be honest: Putin could much cheaper harass Baltics with some "freedom fighters". Similar to US in Afghanistan. I am sure some Stingers from Ukraine could be put in storage for few years and then handed to freedom fighters. Just to cement US-Baltics friendship.
Putin's bot army have really targeted this comment space
We can't let an opportunity to take on flagrant bullshit like this. It's so ridiculous that even a a Putin hater has to see how pathetically wrong this guy's analysis is.
🤡
Nah, just average people ventilating their thoughts and feelings. No conspiracy theories to be seen here.
A snowball's chance in hell😂
Putin is the king of the world.
And he take care of his county and people
Trump is Putin's ace in the hole. He's not folding until that hand plays out. It would not surprise me if he's prepared to bet the house on it.
I wish you were right, but people have been talking this "Putin downfall" stuff for years now... And yet, he is still in there.
And Will remain
Would loved to have watched your podcast , but the continuous beat in the background in the beginning was too unpleasant.
Wushful thinking..Seen so many of these videos over the last two years..And yet Putins still here.
Loved Mark's response to why the experts got Putin so wrong. "Well ... Putin was wrong and we were right ... " Experts going do what experts gotta do. :) Great interview.
Well, when you have “experts” claiming they know what a country’s plans & future actions are without being in the direct inner circle that involves the president/ruler…..
Who is he really? Self-proclaimed expert on Russia....
Mark Galeotti is absolutely superb.
Just because you agree with him, but you don’t question what he is saying, it is all just speculation
@@johnm7267 Galeotti is a widely regarded as a expert on Russia.
@@RTC1655 Not by anyone in Russia that I know, nobody has heard of him
@@RTC1655
From Wikipedia: "A phonograph record (also known as a gramophone record, especially in British English), a vinyl record (for later varieties only), or simply a record or vinyl is an analog sound storage medium in the form of a flat disc with an inscribed, modulated spiral groove. The groove usually starts near the periphery and ends near the center of the disc. For about half a century, the discs were commonly made from shellac, with earlier records having a fine abrasive filler mixed in. Starting in the 1940s, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) became common, the "vinyl records" of the late 20th century."
Sometimes the needle would jump the track, and continue in a circle, not the spiral. Then it would play the same little bit of sound over and over and over.
That was called a "stuck record."
Mark Galeotti's posts on the Russian invasion of Ukraine have been a stuck record for many months now. It's a sad little side-light on a large evil invasion.
@TheDavidlloydjones well, that's what happens when the tactics don't change - the analysis remains static too
Strategically, Russia is in a corner and can't really move. Irrespective of the outcome of the conflict tbh.
If Putin had started the war to annex only Dumbas Ukraine may have not being able to mobilize enough men and international help. But when he attacked the entire country all Ukrainians saw that as their fight and it was easy to get all of the country to respond.
Really enjoyed this discussion, thank you.
Its just what happens when a bully picks a fight he cant win and drags a whole population along with him. If you want to see what this is ultimately going to lead to for Putin: google the last photos of Mussolini.
Let's hope!
Excellent interview!
Oh so you are 80% popular but your downfall is imminent? I think not!
Yes, it really looks like Putin is struggling 😂
He's probably dead already. I'm not convinced by any of the visuals in about the last 8 months. All either known body doubles, as we can see from different facial warts, neck folds, and forehead- or distant poor quality camera work
@@stevev238then who visited saudi , uae?
@@vinojsagar5007Gollum from Lord of the rings…😂😂
Yes, it really looks like Putin IS struggling
Western weakness will deliver Putin's victory. He would have no chance if the West wasn't so divided and pathetic.
Russia is leading a totally silly war!
So they will lose much more soldiers and material. 😂😂😂😂
Why are this guy’s questions always three times as long as they need to be?
By the time he gets to the end, I’ve forgotten what the start was.
Putin appears to be pretty chipper for someone on the way down.
There is no way for Russia to become happy and prosperous unless it pays all restitutions like Germany or Iraq. Russia tends to walk in circles in jistoricsl perspective.
You need to have a visit
Russia has never been happy and prosperous, at least not to the degree the west has. Sucking the world dry in a forceful, colonial manner is something Russia never did, so it is incredibly impressive Russia still manages to run their country like they do.
@@ianbardon8581 I have, and if there's anything wrong with the original comment, it's that it's too optimistic. Russia's a hopeless, backward society, regressing more each year. It will *never* be "happy and prosperous" in our lifetime, because it's filled with Russians and Russian mentality.