@@KatieLibby1315 biden is letting Iran oil come into the US via Houston TX... they offload the oil out in the Gulf and bring it in that way... look it up...
Very good video and very informative as to the timing. One other pressure point is that the FED balance sheet is down to 4.5 trillion in terms of Treasury holdings and the FED returns the interest on that stack back to the Treasury, so as the FED holdings roll off, the Treasury is simply getting less interest put back in the jar by the FED as those Treasury products are now held by owners that do not return the interest of course. And this is all on top of the higher yields of course.
I just read about a ramped-up treasury buyback program that may be coming. Still trying to get my head around that one. Love the channel and the content! Thank you!
every little bit of information is additive. The 10 year note has gone from 3.8% to 4.6-4.7% so far this year. After the treasury announcement and the fed meeting on Wednesday, why not 4.8%. I still expect to see 5% again on the 10 year.
You might be saying that in jest, but the whole US government bond system is predicated on lots of big entities buying them each week. However, European bonds are looking more attractive as the ECB prepares to lower rates, thus there is some competition. So Treasuries may indeed have fewer buyers. A few failed auctions and there will be chaos. I don't expect that to happen, but it is not a given.
Why would yields continue to go up though? ..If issuing more bills it should drop yeild again no? Total issuance for the year notwithstanding. My guess is there would be a bit of a reprieve in May due to this action.
the private sector controls the bond market [they dictate the price]; they will force the FED to cough up more money to hold the bonds; the FED also has the incentive to fight inflation. I think the interest rate will go higher, when the short-term yield and the 10-yield are re-aligned then watch out.
It would be interesting to look at the cash reserves if the oil reserves were replenished. The government can increase the cash reserves when they aren’t replenishing and hiding this obligation.
yes, interesting. That is a debt for sure that probably goes in the category of the government owing itself which there is a decent amount of in the total national debt.
Seasonally the Treasury holdings balloon in the first 3rd of the year. Your chart over the last few years helps substantiate this. After tax revenues come in during the first third of the calendar year, the Treasury typically spends that down over the balance of the year. Think about it.....
Agreed that they typically balloon up. In this case though, they have $200B+ more than the expected to have (they knew that tax revenues would be coming in and still only expected to have $750B). If they do the right thing they will not borrow any money during the next quarter since they expected to borrow $202B and have more than $220B in excess of what they expected to have. It will be interesting to see what the Treasury announces on Monday. Thanks for the comment and critique!
it takes 11 days to count to a million, and 33 years to count to a BILLION! We could end homelessness in the entire country for 1/3 of what we just gave to Ukraine.
Be honest, did you watch all 15 minutes?😀. The speculation part was only about 4 minutes, the rest was information to get folks on the same page before I speculated
They have plenty of money to fund other countries governments for a long time .
😂
Just keep on printing money and creating wealth from the thin paper.
Foreign counties: $59 billion
Oil Companies: $69 trillion
Look it up.
@@KatieLibby1315 biden is letting Iran oil come into the US via Houston TX... they offload the oil out in the Gulf and bring it in that way... look it up...
Pay your taxes! Ukraine and the Middle East need your familiy’s money!
That was cool, seeing how the treasure works, plans, think's. Ty. I'm rooting for them to keep the Bond's down and the T-Bill's up...
Thanks for the support!
Thank you again. Very clear and informative!
Glad it was helpful!
How can they call it a Surplus when they had to borrow the money to stockpile it, especially at the higher interest rates ?
Sorry, I was calling it a surplus just because it was more than they expected to have. Not sure the government looks at it as a surplus.
Very good video and very informative as to the timing. One other pressure point is that the FED balance sheet is down to 4.5 trillion in terms of Treasury holdings and the FED returns the interest on that stack back to the Treasury, so as the FED holdings roll off, the Treasury is simply getting less interest put back in the jar by the FED as those Treasury products are now held by owners that do not return the interest of course. And this is all on top of the higher yields of course.
Good point!
I just read about a ramped-up treasury buyback program that may be coming. Still trying to get my head around that one. Love the channel and the content! Thank you!
Thanks!
Thank you for watching!
Good video. Bang on the money with the slush fund. Governments lie, always have done and will always do so.
Glad that it was helpful!
This is helpful information. Shell games.
Glad it helped! Thanks for watching!
Great info! Really appreciate your work and insight! VERY helpful!
Appreciate you watching!
Bump? How much? 4.2%, 4.3%or even 4.5%? Not helpful
every little bit of information is additive. The 10 year note has gone from 3.8% to 4.6-4.7% so far this year. After the treasury announcement and the fed meeting on Wednesday, why not 4.8%. I still expect to see 5% again on the 10 year.
My uneducated opinion is they want need the cash just in case no one shows up to buy bonds.
You might be saying that in jest, but the whole US government bond system is predicated on lots of big entities buying them each week. However, European bonds are looking more attractive as the ECB prepares to lower rates, thus there is some competition. So Treasuries may indeed have fewer buyers. A few failed auctions and there will be chaos. I don't expect that to happen, but it is not a given.
Wouldn't be surprised if rating agencies do another downgrade this year.
Why would yields continue to go up though? ..If issuing more bills it should drop yeild again no? Total issuance for the year notwithstanding. My guess is there would be a bit of a reprieve in May due to this action.
To much supply not enough demand
Great insights, thank you!
Thank you!
Thanks for this informative presentation
Thanks for watching!
the private sector controls the bond market [they dictate the price]; they will force the FED to cough up more money to hold the bonds; the FED also has the incentive to fight inflation. I think the interest rate will go higher, when the short-term yield and the 10-yield are re-aligned then watch out.
It would be interesting to look at the cash reserves if the oil reserves were replenished. The government can increase the cash reserves when they aren’t replenishing and hiding this obligation.
yes, interesting. That is a debt for sure that probably goes in the category of the government owing itself which there is a decent amount of in the total national debt.
I'd like to see the 10yr go to a coupon rate of at least 6%
They're liars
Seasonally the Treasury holdings balloon in the first 3rd of the year. Your chart over the last few years helps substantiate this. After tax revenues come in during the first third of the calendar year, the Treasury typically spends that down over the balance of the year. Think about it.....
Agreed that they typically balloon up. In this case though, they have $200B+ more than the expected to have (they knew that tax revenues would be coming in and still only expected to have $750B). If they do the right thing they will not borrow any money during the next quarter since they expected to borrow $202B and have more than $220B in excess of what they expected to have. It will be interesting to see what the Treasury announces on Monday. Thanks for the comment and critique!
excellent ! ty
Thank you!
Theyre holding onto the money becaue they are broken
u.s treasuries are the only investable asset rn
🎉❤
🎉
Too scattered to follow.
Thanks for the feedback! I will try to do better.
it takes 11 days to count to a million, and 33 years to count to a BILLION! We could end homelessness in the entire country for 1/3 of what we just gave to Ukraine.
15 minutes of speculation…
Be honest, did you watch all 15 minutes?😀. The speculation part was only about 4 minutes, the rest was information to get folks on the same page before I speculated
@@FatherNSonInvesting it was informative. I learned something with this video
Thanks!
Thanks for watching!